Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FNUS53 KJKL 030956
FWFJKL

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST KENTUCKY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
456 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
DRIVER TODAY...WITH THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE AWAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY VARIABLE. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TODAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND AN INCREASE IN
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A RESULT.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WAVE NEARS CLOSER AND
WILL EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE...ALLOWING
FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN FALLING LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT ONSET...AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION
COULD FALL AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT ONSET.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS WE
WARM UP DURING THE SUNDAY...WITH LLVL WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY AND AIDING IN THE WARM UP AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW. GENERALLY EXPECTING BETWEEN
0.10 AND 0.20 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.




KYZ068-079-083-084-032130-
ROCKCASTLE-PULASKI-WAYNE-MCCREARY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRODHEAD...MOUNT VERNON...BURNSIDE...
SOMERSET...MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY
456 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-57 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHEAST 0 TO 5 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....9.
VENT RATE...........POOR (8700 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................8.
LVORI...............6.
PROB OF PRECIP......0 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......0-5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
ADI.................4.
LVORI...............6.
PROB OF PRECIP......60 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.06 INCHES.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........76-84 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....13.
VENT RATE...........POOR (13400 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................15.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......60 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.12 INCHES.


$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106>109-119-032130-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ELLIOTT-
MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...INEZ
456 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....22.
VENT RATE...........POOR (21700 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................24 DECREASING TO 12 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
PROB OF PRECIP......0 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN POSSIBLY
                    MIXED WITH SNOW LATE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 32.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5-10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
ADI.................3.
LVORI...............6.
PROB OF PRECIP......20 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.01 INCHES.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-71 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5-10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....20.
VENT RATE...........POOR (19600 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................21.
LVORI...............5.
PROB OF PRECIP......60 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.07 INCHES.


$$

KYZ069-080-085>088-110>118-120-032130-
JACKSON-LAUREL-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...LONDON...CORBIN...
WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...
CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
456 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-60 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 5 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....13.
VENT RATE...........POOR (13300 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................13.
LVORI...............4.
PROB OF PRECIP......0 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 33.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
ADI.................2.
LVORI...............6.
PROB OF PRECIP......40 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.04 INCHES.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........68-78 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....19.
VENT RATE...........POOR (18600 KNOT-FT).
ADI.................12 INCREASING TO 22 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............6.
PROB OF PRECIP......60 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.05 - 0.18 INCHES.


$$

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
LIGHT WINDS.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 50. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN LATE.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...COLDER. PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN
THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 18. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 30. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$
JMW


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