Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FNUS53 KJKL 211836
FWFJKL

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
236 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REACH
MINIMUM VALUES BY 4PM THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST VALLEYS REACHING THE
LOW 20S AND FEW DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE EAST DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUTTA THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 MPH AT
MOST. A FEW RIDGETOPS THIS EVENING MAY REACH 15 MPH. BY LATE THIS
EVENING...DEWS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
TONIGHT... WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES ON
THROUGH THIS PART OF THE STATE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN
A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH SO MANY PLACES ARE LIKELY TO AVOID A
GOOD SOAKING FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL SERVE TO CONTINUE OUR
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK. COOLER WEATHER DOES FOLLOW THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S FOR WEDNESDAY.

KYZ044-050>052-221145-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD
236 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
PROB OF PRECIP......70 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.15 INCHES.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....113.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (113200 KNOT-FT).
PROB OF PRECIP......60 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.07 INCHES.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 37.
   24 HR TREND......20 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........72-81 PERCENT ON THE RIDGES AND 83-92
                    PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
PROB OF PRECIP......0 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-28 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....68.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (68300 KNOT-FT).
PROB OF PRECIP......0 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........NONE.

$$

KYZ068-069-079-080-083>085-221145-
ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG
236 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    EARLY...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
PROB OF PRECIP......60 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.13 - 0.29 INCHES.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN
                    SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-44 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS AND 46-54 PERCENT
                    ON THE RIDGES.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....85.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (84700 KNOT-FT).
PROB OF PRECIP......60 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.09 INCHES.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39.
   24 HR TREND......19 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-84 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
PROB OF PRECIP......0 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-28 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....60.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (60000 KNOT-FT).
PROB OF PRECIP......0 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........NONE.

$$

KYZ058>060-086>088-104-106>120-221145-
ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-
MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-
MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...
WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...
BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...
HYDEN...WHITESBURG...INEZ...PIKEVILLE
236 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-88 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
PROB OF PRECIP......60 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.15 INCHES.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-41 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS AND 49-58 PERCENT
                    ON THE RIDGES.
   24 HR TREND......29 PERCENT WETTER.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 20 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....91.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (91300 KNOT-FT).
PROB OF PRECIP......60 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........0.12 INCHES.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
   24 HR TREND......18 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-85 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
PROB OF PRECIP......10 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........23 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT DRIER.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....71.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (70600 KNOT-FT).
PROB OF PRECIP......0 PERCENT.
QPF (INCHES)........NONE.

$$

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY BECOMING LIGHT.
.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...WARMER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT WINDS.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AT
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY...THEN
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. EAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$
SHALLENBERGER





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