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000
AXUS74 KLUB 091655
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-091730-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1200 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

...LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO WORSEN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS WHILE SOME MINOR SHORT-TERM RELIEF HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS...

SYNOPSIS...

FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS...
NOTWITHSTANDING THE ON-GOING DROUGHT...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HAVE
BEEN CONFINED AND INFREQUENT THIS SEASON. THIS IS OWING TO A MUCH
REDUCED FUEL LOAD AS DROUGHT HAS CONSTRICTED GROWTH OF GRASSES AND
SHRUBS FOR NEARLY THREE YEARS...AND SINCE VERY FEW CYCLONIC WIND
STORMS DEVELOPED IN THE TYPICAL PEAK MARCH-APRIL PERIOD. THE WIND
STORM SEASON IS NOW WINDING DOWN...ALTHOUGH AS WARMER WEATHER
DEVELOPS...DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WILL OCCASIONALLY TAP INTO
LINGERING STRONG FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL CREATE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
MORE STRONG WIND EVENTS IN THE WEEKS AHEAD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ALSO...ALTHOUGH FUEL LOADING HAS BEEN MINIMAL...THE EARLY SPRING
GREENING HAS CURED AFTER FREQUENT HARD FREEZES AND DRYNESS FOR THE
PAST 10 WEEKS. VEGETATION DROUGHT RESPONSE INDICES INDICATE
INCREASING STRESS IN RECENT WEEKS. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS
DEVELOPED BY THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE HAVE BECOME VERY HIGH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THE
MOST RECENT KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX FROM THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE
INDICATES MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS REMAINING IN SEVERE DROUGHT WITH
LEVELS BETWEEN 600 AND 800...WHILE THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE REPORTED MORE MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS BETWEEN 400 AND 600. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE COMING TWO WEEKS. ALL THIS INDICATES THERE REMAINS
RISK FOR RAPID BURN AND SPREAD TO DEVELOP IN THE WEEKS AHEAD OVER
AREAS WITH CONTIGUOUS FUEL LOADING COINCIDENTAL WITH STRONG WINDS
AND OR DRY LIGHTNING STORMS.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
WE NEED RAIN. SINCE MAY IS COTTON PLANTING SEASON..AND SEEDS NEED
MOISTURE TO GERMINATE..THE STATEMENT THAT WE NEED SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL CANNOT BE UNDERSTATED.  OUTSIDE OF FIELDS WHERE IRRIGATION
IS AVAILABLE..SOIL  MOISTURE REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW.  LUBBOCK AS WELL
AS MOST OF THE REGION SAW VIRTUALLY NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
MARCH OR APRIL.  OVER THE LAST 3 OR 4 DAYS WE`VE SEEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE PERCENTAGE OF LAND TO SEE AS MUCH AS 1 INCH
OF RAIN IS LESS THAN 1 PERCENT.

ON MAY 3RD FOR THE THIRD WEEK IN A ROW WE SAW ANOTHER HARD FREEZE
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  THIS FREEZE SET RECORDS FOR THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO LATE IN THE SPRING AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.  LATE SEASON
FREEZES ARE HARD TO WINTER WHEAT CROPS THAT WERE IN THE BOOT OR
BLOOMING STAGES. COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THE LATE
FREEZES PUT THE WINTER WHEAT CROPS IN POOR CONDITION. 74 PCT OF THE
TEXAS AND 45 PCT OF THE OKLAHOMA WINTER WHEAT CROP IS LISTED AS
BEING IN POOR TO VERY POOR CONDITION.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE WEATHER DURING THE END OF APRIL AND THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY VARIED
GREATLY FROM WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THESE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE CAUSED BY
UNSEASONABLY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS. THE LATEST FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH WEST TEXAS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY BROUGHT WITH
IT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO THE LOW 30S IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. THESE COLD
FRONTS ACTED TO SUPRESS PRECIPITATION AS THEY PUSHED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD.  IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SLOW TO
RETURN TO THE AREA AFTER BEING DISPLACED. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
SECOND WEEK OF MAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAD RETURNED TO WEST TEXAS
WITH LITTLE INTERFERENCE AND DID ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MANY AREAS DID RECEIVE MODEST AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL FROM THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN THOUGH WHAT RAIN
THAT FELL WAS BENEFICIAL TO THOSE FORTUNATE AREAS...IT DID VERY
LITTLE TO EASE LONGER TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
AMOUNTS WERE JUST UNDER 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH. MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WERE BELOW 15 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. AREAS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
RECEIVED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EVENING OF MAY
8...BUT THIS IS NOT YET REFLECTED ON THE CURRENT DROUGHT MONITOR.


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE REGION. BEYOND SATURDAY...THIS SAME UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MAY AGAIN BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. ALTHOUGH
PREDICTABILITY IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM. NO
OTHER APPRECIABLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE ON THE
HORIZON THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM FROM SATURDAY AND BEYOND AS DRIER AIR ENTERS WEST TEXAS. THE
EXTENDED OUTLOOK FROM MAY THROUGH JULY IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AREA RESERVOIRS HAVE SHOWN A CONTINUED SLOW DECLINE SINCE THE END OF
FROM LATE APRIL THROUGH EARLY MAY. THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR
CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED APRIL 25TH:

RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION POOL  2 WEEK  MAXIMUM PERCENT OF
                      POOL    TODAY  CHANGE  DEPTH  CONSERVATION
                                     (FEET)  (FEET)  CAPACITY
  MACKENZIE LAKE      3100   3006.1   -0.3     57        8
  WHITE RIVER LAKE    2370   2341.2   -0.3     16        2
  LAKE ALAN HENRY     2220   2207.8   -0.3     67       69
  LAKE MEREDITH       2936   2840.6   -0.3    28.4     -11


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON MAY 23RD OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN
RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/

NWS PRECIPITATION:
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/

USGS:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:
HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

USDA:
HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/

TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES...
THE TEXAS TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100
LUBBOCK TEXAS  79423
PHONE: 806-745-4260
SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$