Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

000
FXUS06 KWBC 171951
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON JUNE 17 2013

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 23 - 27 2013

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE ALUETIANS
EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE A RIDGE IS PREDICTED FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR
ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM, THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FORECAST A
TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
PLACES THIS FEATURE FARTHER OFFSHORE. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS FORECAST LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
IF FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER, THE
OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS AND HIGH RESOLUTION 00Z ECMWF ARE FORECASTING A WEAKNESS IN
THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OR TEXAS. TODAY`S OFFICIAL
500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS MOSTLY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FROM THE
GFS AND ECWMF.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO
EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS.  HOWEVER, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE NORTH OF AN EXPECTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE GULF COAST REGION, AND FLORIDA UNDERNEATH WEAK MID LEVEL
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED FOR
MOST OF ALASKA UNDER AN EXPECTED RIDGE, ALTHOUGH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROUGH.

ELEVATED ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED FOR MUCH OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS NEAR AND
AHEAD OF AN EXPECTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION DUE TO A POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THIS AREA. THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE ELEVATED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO DUE TO INDICATIONS FROM
THE GEFS CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION. THIS TOOL AS WELL AS THE NAEFS AND ANALOGS
FROM THE MANUAL BLEND SUPPORT ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER PARTS OF TEXAS. BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN, INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,
AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES DUE TO FORECAST RIDGING. NEAR TO
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF INTERIOR ALASKA
UNDER AN EXPECTED RIDGE. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10
PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF
TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY`S OPERATIONAL
12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY`S 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 25 - JUL 01, 2013

MODEL AGREEMENT IS RELATIVELY POOR OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE WEEK TWO
PERIOD. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ALL
PREDICT A TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING FOR MUCH OF
INTERIOR ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM, THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS BRING A TROUGH
NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE 00Z ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEAN LEAVES THIS FEATURE
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FORECASTS A RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS.
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE, THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW OVER THIS REGION. AGREEMENT AMONG SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL
GFS IS POOR AS THE 06Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN FORECASTS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND THE 12Z RUN DEVELOPS A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS. DUE TO LARGE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS, TODAY`S
WEEK TWO 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS PRIMARILY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS UNDER PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UNDERNEATH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TEXAS, CONSISTENT WITH THE NAEFS TOOL AND THE GEFS
REGRESSION-CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURE TOOL. CONVERSELY, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A FORECAST RIDGE. THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FORECAST TROUGH.

THE CALIBRATED GEFS PRECIPITATION TOOL AND NAEFS SUGGEST ELEVATED PROBABILITIES
OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION, WHICH
PREDICTS A TROUGH AND A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ELEVATED FOR
PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA DUE TO INDICATIONS FROM NAEFS AND THE GEFS
CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION TOOL. THESE TOOLS ALSO SUGGEST NEAR TO BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND HIGH PLAINS. CONVERSELY, ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL TROUGH OFF
THE COAST. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A RIDGE WHILE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 5 PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20
PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF
TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF
YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 5 PERCENT OF
YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO RELATIVELY POOR MODEL AGREEMENT.

FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 20

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19530602 - 20020614 - 19880610 - 19930529 - 19800608


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20020613 - 19880610 - 20040626 - 19660602 - 19570602


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 23 - 27 2013

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    N    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    N    N
N TEXAS     N    B     S TEXAS     N    B     W TEXAS     N    N
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 25 - JUL 01, 2013

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      N    B     OKLAHOMA    N    B
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     N    B
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    A
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$