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FXUS06 KWBC 222017
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI JULY 22 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 28 - AUG 01, 2016

TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD IN THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC. A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS
LOW TO MODERATE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE GREATEST WEIGHTS IN
TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND WERE GIVEN TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS BASED
PRIMARILY ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL.

PREDICTED RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS LEAD TO ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN CONUS ARE FAVORED AHEAD THE
FORECAST TROUGH. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ARE PREDICTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT. ABOVE
NORMAL SSTS LEAD TO INCREASED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHERN
ALASKA WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR BASIN OF ALASKA ARE
FAVORED.

BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PREDICTED RIDGING. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ANTICIPATED
TROUGH. SOUTH OF THE MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY, NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST. GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE
FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON REGION.
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC
FLOW, CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%
OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND THE TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 30 - AUG 05, 2016

THE WEEK TWO 500-HPA ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FEATURE A LONG WAVE PATTERN
SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.

PREDICTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN, SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. GEFS BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE TOOL FROM THE 06Z AND ECMWF
REFORECAST TOOLS FOR 0Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF ALASKA, THE ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE
ARE FAVORED IN ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE NORMAL SSTS WHILE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE INTERIOR BASIN OF ALASKA.

BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PREDICTED RIDGE. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE OHIO
VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN ANTICIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE FAVORS ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON REGION AND BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE GULF COAST.
THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF
ALASKA DUE TO A FORECAST TROUGH.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF
YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 20% OF TODAY`S
0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS, OFFSET BY WEAKER PRECIPITATION
SIGNALS.

FORECASTER: QIN GINGER ZHANG

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19670724 - 19520724 - 19990722 - 19990704 - 19810731


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19670724 - 19990722 - 19890702 - 19520724 - 19810730


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 28 - AUG 01, 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 30 - AUG 05, 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   N    B     E MONTANA   N    B     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    N    N
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   N    N
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




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