Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
992
FXUS06 KWBC 232038
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON JANUARY 23 2017

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 29 - FEB 02, 2017

TODAY`S DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN PREDICTED OVER NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED NEAR
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE A RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. TODAY`S BLENDED 500-HPA CHART INDICATES BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
ELSEWHERE.

THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS IN PARTS
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S., UNDERNEATH THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FAVORS
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS AND A SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED CHANCE FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS, EXCEPT FOR THE WEST COAST WHERE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE EASTERN U.S., FAVORING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCES THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF ALASKA.

AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK THAT BRINGS STORM SYSTEMS OVER ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR ALASKA. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FAVOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE CONUS.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10%
OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED
ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON UPPER LEVEL, OFFSET BY SOME DYNAMIC
MODEL TOOLS DISAGREEMENT.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 31 - FEB 06, 2017

BY THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE TROUGH NEAR ALASKA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, AND
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND GULF OF ALASKA.
OVER THE CONUS, TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES, WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH FORECAST BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN
CONUS, DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THERE ARE
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA DUE TO THE
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS THERE.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS
EXCEPT ALASKA SOUTH COAST AND THE PANHANDLES RELATED TO THE PREDICTED RIDGE IN
THE AREA. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE WESTERN
CONUS, THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT
LAKES, CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS, BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, THE GULF COAST REGION AND THE
ATLANTIC COAST STATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INACTIVE OF THE STORM TRACK BEHIND OF
THE FORECAST TROUGH.


THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF
YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 20% OF TODAY`S
0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET BY SOME
DYNAMIC MODEL TOOLS DISAGREEMENT AND INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY.

FORECASTER: QIN GINGER ZHANG

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 16

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19950113 - 19950118 - 19920103 - 20080106 - 20060115


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19950113 - 19950118 - 19560124 - 19580127 - 19920102


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 29 - FEB 02, 2017

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    N     OREGON      B    N     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       B    B     NEVADA      B    B
W MONTANA   B    N     E MONTANA   N    B     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        B    B     ARIZONA     N    B     COLORADO    B    B
NEW MEXICO  B    B     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     N    B     S TEXAS     B    B     W TEXAS     N    B
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    N    B     LOUISIANA   B    B     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    N    B     MISSISSIPPI B    B     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     N    B     OHIO        N    B     KENTUCKY    N    B
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    B     NEW YORK    N    B
VERMONT     N    B     NEW HAMP    N    B     MAINE       A    B
MASS        N    B     CONN        N    B     RHODE IS    N    B
PENN        N    B     NEW JERSEY  N    B     W VIRGINIA  N    B
MARYLAND    N    B     DELAWARE    N    B     VIRGINIA    N    B
N CAROLINA  B    B     S CAROLINA  B    B     GEORGIA     B    B
FL PNHDL    B    B     FL PENIN    B    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    N     AK PNHDL    N    N



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 31 - FEB 06, 2017

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     N    B     COLORADO    N    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    N    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    B     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    N    N
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    B     MAINE       N    N
MASS        N    B     CONN        N    B     RHODE IS    N    B
PENN        A    B     NEW JERSEY  N    B     W VIRGINIA  A    B
MARYLAND    A    B     DELAWARE    N    B     VIRGINIA    A    B
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    N    B     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    N    B     AK SO COAST N    B     AK PNHDL    B    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.