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FXUS06 KWBC 232001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU FEBRUARY 23 2017

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 01 - 05 2017

TODAY`S DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN PREDICTED OVER NORTH AMERICA. A BLOCKING PATTERN IS
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER
WEST-CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS PREDICTED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TODAY`S 500-HPA HEIGHT
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN CONUS AND WESTERN ALASKA, WHILE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CONUS AND EASTERN ALASKA. ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS
INDICATE LOW SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE GREATEST
WEIGHT FOR THE BLENDED HEIGHT FORECAST WAS GIVEN TO THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTION BASED ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL AND ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH
MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE FORECAST PATTERN MATCHES CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN
THE PAST.

ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND STRONG 500-HPA SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCE
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS,
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND A
PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TILT THE ODDS TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS.

THE BROAD TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS AS WELL AS AN ASSOCIATED
ACTIVE STORM TRACK FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CONUS,
WHILE BELOW MEDIAN IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE SOUTHWEST, AND
CALIFORNIA, CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODES.

THE FORECAST BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER ALASKA, WHICH FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE OVER ALASKA. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA, WHILE NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%
OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 03 - 09 2017

TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEAN DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS INDICATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST DOMAIN.

THERE IS A BIG CHANGE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST PATTERN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. MOST OF TODAY`S TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WHICH CONFLICTS WITH YESTERDAY`S
GUIDANCE FAVORING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS AND A PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE
NORTHEAST.  BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AS WELL AS
ALASKA, WHILE ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
INDICATED FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED REFORECAST
TEMPERATURE TOOLS FROM GFS ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.

PREDICTED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ZONAL FLOW FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO STATES. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MOST OF THE NORTHERN CONUS, WHILE BELOW MEDIAN IS INDICATED FOR MOST OF
CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND PART OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE OHIO VALLEY,
AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC, CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GEFS
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY`S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO A BIG CHANGE OF TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY`S FORECAST AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS.

FORECASTER: LUKE HE

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 16

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19900309 - 19510219 - 19960223 - 19810225 - 19690223


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19960224 - 19810224 - 20060308 - 19900308 - 19510222


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 01 - 05 2017

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    B
SRN CALIF   B    B     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    B
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     B    N
UTAH        B    B     ARIZONA     B    B     COLORADO    B    B
NEW MEXICO  N    B     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    N    N
NEBRASKA    N    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    B     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    B
AK S INT    B    B     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    B    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 03 - 09 2017

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    N     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        A    B     KENTUCKY    A    B
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    N
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N
PENN        N    N     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  N    B
MARYLAND    N    N     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    B
AK ALEUTIAN B    B     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    B
AK S INT    B    B     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    B    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



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