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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FXUS04 KWBC 151830
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 16/0000 UTC THRU MAY 17/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SHRTWV TROF LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF NATION...

WARM FRONT ASOCTD WITH THE SYSTEM ADVANCES RAPIDLY ACROSS NEW ENG
WHILE ITS CDFNT TRAILS WWD ACROSS THE OH VLY TO THE MIDWEST.  THE
FAST MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SERVE TO LIMIT PCPN TOTALS
ALONG THAT FEATURE AND MODEL QPF GUIDANCE SEEMS IN GOOD ACCORD IN
THAT REGARD. MEANWHILE...WHILE MODELS INDC MSTR CNVGNC INVOF THE
CDFNT..THE UPPER LVL FORCING REMAINS RATHER WEAK SUGGESTING THAT
AREAS OF SGFNT CNVCTV RAINS WILL LIKELY BE SCTD ALONG THE FEATURE.
 THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE LACK OF AGREEMENT BTWN MODEL QPFS ON
SPECIFICS OF PLACEMENT/TIMING AND A MORE OR LESS BROAD BRUSHED
LOOK TO THEIR QPF FIELDS.  FOR NOW ATTEMPTED A BLEND OF MODEL QPFS
WHERE THERE WAS SOME AGREEMENT..WITH MOST FAVORING THE UPPER OH
VLY FOR BEST AMTS AND COVERAGE.

...CONCERNING THE BROAD UPPER TROF ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...

THIS SYSTEM AND SHRTWV ENERGY BEING EJECTED FM IT WILL FIRE AREAS
OF SHWRS FM THE PAC NW/NRN CA EWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE ROCKIES DURING THE PD.  MODEL QPFS MAXIMIZE PCPN INVOF WRN OR
AND NRN CA BUT AMTS THERE WILL REMAIN ON THE LGT SIDE GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH LIMITED LLVL ONSHORE FLOW.  LGTR AMTS ON THE
AREA AVG WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMTN REGION AND INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES WHERE SHWRS SHOULD BE EVEN MORE SCTD AND WHERE MODEL
QPFS ARE SHOWING SGFNT DISCORD GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED
MSTR INVOLVED.

...NRN HI PLAINS INTO THE LWR MO RIV VLY...

MODELS GENERATE WEAK HGT FALLS ACROSS THIS REGION FM THE COMBO OF
THE VORT BEING EJECTED ENEWD FM THE THE S CNTRL GREAT BASIN AND
PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE NRN STREAM.  MODEL QPFS IN GNRL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHWRS ACROSS THIS AREA PARTICULARLY DURING THE
2ND HALF OF THE PD BUT AGREEMENT ON SPECIFICS IS WEAK AT BEST.
BROADLY FVBL JET DYNAMICS AND A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY INVOF NE AIDS
CONFIDENCE IN FOCUSING ACTVTY THERE BUT OTHERWISE..USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE QPF IN THIS REGION.

...SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY...

MODEL FCSTS OF AMPLE MOIST AND UNSTBL AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
CONTG NWD MSTR FLUX NOTED  IS SUGGESTIVE OF HVY SHWRS ACROSS THIS
AREA WHICH WILL BE TRIGGERED BY THE ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM
UPPER LO/TROF ACROSS THE REGION.  MODELS ARE IN THE SAME BALLPARK
WITH THE SGFNT QPF BUT THERE IS LOT OF VARIATION WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT IN DETAILS OVR THE SHORT TIME FRAME.  ATTEMPTED TO DRAW
A QPF TO FIT THE GFS MASS FIELD SPECIFICS BUT WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
DONE THE MANUAL QPF LOOKS VRY SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF TODAY`S FCST
MODELS.  HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME VRY VRY HVY RNFL TOTALS
BUT CONFIDENCE WITH EXACT PLACEMENT IS NOT SUFFICIENT ENUF TO GO
WITH THE HI TOTALS SOME OF THEM ARE INDCTG.

KORTY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 17/00Z
 0.01 507698 504688 501676 492654 487643 482634 478630 473624
      468619 463617 451614 444613 439614 428617 422619 416623
      403636 398641 396645 393648 387654 384660 379672 372685
      370691 369693 370696 369700 370703 372707 375706 378704
      381705 383704 386706 386722 386728 389737 388741 389745
      393755 395762 399759 399752 399743 394724 393709 395705
      397703 405699 411699 418700 422700 426704 430708 431714
      430722 424727 422728 421733 424732 430732 433734 434739
      433743 434747 437753 440752 441747 444743 450742 456743
      462746 471757 476766 481772 489781 494783 498782 502778
      505763 507744 509733 509720 508708 507698
 0.01 535216 537206 539194 538186 536180 534171 530166 524149
      521143 512139 507136 503131 498126 494125 490121 487116
      486113 485108 485101 488096 489093 491090 493090 496086
      495083 492081 485080 476083 473076 472069 472064 472057
      473053 476050 479047 485036 490019 491014 490003 489985
      482972 480967 476967 472969 470971 466972 460969 451960
      442950 435940 427927 421915 416900 414897 414892 413886
      410867 410849 409841 409835 405817 404810 405803 406793
      406784 405777 394778 387760 384751 381745 376740 373734
      366731 366734 364743 364749 364760 366769 369779 372788
      373795 372809 372814 373823 372828 373836 375853 376860
      377864 375867 372870 368870 366868 364864 361861 358860
      356856 352853 349851 346852 343855 341864 338869 336884
      335887 332889 326890 321889 313891 310894 302897 296899
      293902 289904 288907 288911 293914 299915 305915 305917
      302919 298924 295927 290936 288940 286945 288949 291948
      300943 307940 310941 311945 309950 309959 307971 306979
      304987 304992 307995 317989 328983 337982 342985 346987
      353987 357983 360978 362973 367970 375964 381960 389958
      395958 399961 400969 400977 394986 389990 386995 381003
      379010 379014 383017 390018 397016 400014 403015 402019
      404035 400042 397045 393045 385046 377045 366047 363051
      366054 370055 377055 381055 385056 389062 388066 385068
      381064 375064 371067 369068 372074 375079 379082 384083
      386080 389080 398072 403071 406070 410072 418067 421069
      422072 421080 421088 425095 428100 423102 420106 418109
      415110 408101 406098 406105 403112 403114 406114 412118
      417119 421115 425119 425124 428126 432122 435120 439121
      442124 443128 440133 436140 435149 435152 437155 441159
      449167 452164 457164 460165 461170 459172 456176 451182
      449188 452192 455189 461187 465183 466180 468175 474180
      475183 474188 471193 456211 448212 439208 436203 432196
      432166 427153 424138 422135 416140 415142 414147 413153
      411156 407171 403175 401185 398189 391190 377187 365185
      364189 367193 386214 393217 393219 389220 386221 382226
      378229 377233 377238 382245 394251 402253 410255 416255
      425257 432258 439261 451259 463258 478261 484261 487266
      507283 514281 516272 517263 515257 513247 518240 519236
      519230 518226 518220 517213 521212 525214 533216 535216
 0.01 507264 508259 505253 503248 502243 499241 496238 491236
      485234 482233 480235 484238 490242 492247 494253 495258
      496261 498263 502261 504265 507264
 0.01 492225 490221 487222 484221 481221 479221 480224 483225
      486227 489228 492225
 0.01 450084 447082 446080 444079 441077 439077 436080 438084
      439084 441086 444086 447086 450084
 0.25 485675 483667 479658 476652 471648 467646 461647 457650
      451652 441656 432654 423654 413657 408663 410669 419670
      437681 441683 444687 448691 451699 450704 451710 454712
      459712 463716 468717 478721 482721 485714 485700 485685
      485675
 0.25 470240 459231 457233 459237 458236 455232 450229 443223
      436220 431215 424201 419194 416195 414200 412211 409218
      407239 412244 420247 435249 444249 450248 456247 463243
      470240
 0.25 468034 469030 467027 464026 461025 460026 458030 458031
      461034 461035 464036 467035 468034
 0.25 464110 463106 461105 458105 455104 453103 450105 450106
      447108 445109 444113 446117 446118 449120 452120 455118
      458114 461111 464110
 0.25 440995 440989 438982 434972 430964 426957 421949 418939
      412917 408906 406896 403873 403864 402850 401842 400828
      399819 395806 392794 390792 384794 381801 380809 380820
      380832 383853 388878 389887 389894 390901 394911 396922
      400929 404943 406951 409965 412973 412987 412993 415999
      417002 422009 426011 428012 431010 437004 440995
 0.25 374934 374929 372926 366920 359916 351917 344913 341912
      339913 336915 332920 326925 320940 318949 320956 320964
      327966 339974 346976 350975 353972 358966 363959 370945
      374934
 0.50 430993 430989 429985 429984 428981 427977 425975 423974
      422973 422974 420977 420978 420981 420982 420983 420986
      420990 421991 423994 424995 427996 430993 430993
 0.50 389809 388806 385806 383811 383821 384830 385841 386849
      388859 391870 393871 396868 396860 395849 392838 391827
      390820 389810 389809
 0.50 366936 364931 360927 355925 349924 345923 341923 338924
      331932 325942 324947 326952 327955 330957 334960 340970
      345972 348972 355963 358958 361952 365940 366936
 1.00 357945 357938 354934 350932 345930 342931 339933 337937
      337943 339946 340952 341959 343966 346966 349964 351958
      353953 356949 357945

$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
