Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 311814
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
213 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 01/0000 UTC THRU SEP 02/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

...FLORIDA/SE U.S....

WEAK SFC TROF/OLD FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING SWD FROM THE NC COAST TO
OFF THE W COAST OF FL WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY
THIS PD.  THE HEAVIER RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER W/NRN FL WHERE WEAK
LOW PRES SYSTEM EVIDENT OFF THE SW COAST OF FL IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
N THAN NEWD ALONG THE TROF AXIS WHERE IT WILL MAKE USE OF AXIS OF
VERY HI PWS..AOA 2-2.25 INCHES ALONG THE BNDRY.  AT THIS TIME..IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINS WOULD REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
GULF CLOSER TO THE LOW CIRC BUT SOME HEAVIER RAINS OF UP TO AN
INCH OR SO WILL BE PSBL.  STAYED FAIRLY CLOSED TO CONTINUITY AS
MODELS SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TRACK.  LIGHTER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE NC COASTAL PLAIN AS
LIGHT WLY 85H-5H FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS DEEPER MSTR AXIS SLOWLY
OFFSHORE.

...TX COAST NNEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

WEAK NE/SW ORIENTED UPR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SRN
PLAINS/ERN U.S. UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THIS PD.
SEVERAL WEAK VORTS NOTED ALONG ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS IN COMBINATION
WITH WEAK AND SOMEWHAT MOIST SLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCTD MAINLY
DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY FROM THE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY.   GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW HERE...COULD SEE SOME
VERY ISOLD CELLS THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN BUT FROM AN
AREAL AVG PERSPECTIVE...AMOUNTS HERE ON AVERAGE SHOULD BE GENLY
LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT.  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TX
COAST IN PROXIMITY TO DEEPER TROPICAL LIKE MSTR AND MORE FAVORABLE
UPR DIFFLUENCE CLOSE TO SLOWLY EVOLVING 25H LOW NEAR THE TX COAST.


...PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE STRONG MEAN CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL KEEP BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE TO ITS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. DAY 1.  MODELS GENLY AGREE ON BRINGING
PIECE OF VORTEX SEWD ACRS VANCOUVER ISLAND TUES WITH CORRESPONDING
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTING MDT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACRS THE OLYMPICS AND NRN WA CASCADES.   DID NOT DEVIATE
TOO MUCH FROM CONTINUITY HERE.

...SW U.S. NEWD INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...

AN AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST FROM
NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST---ERN GREAT BASIN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. WEAK S/WV LIFTING OUT OF
THE CNTL ROCKIES MON EVNG IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE WCNTL PLAINS ALONG LEE TROF AXIS/NARROW MSTR
AXIS.  WEAK FLOW BOTH SFC AND ALOFT ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTL
PLAINS...COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLD HEAVIER TOTALS BUT AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENLY LIGHT TO SPOTTY MDT.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SULLIVAN

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 560886 558870 555854 553848 550843 546838 543836 539834
      535836 531841 529846 524857 520871 516882 514890 511897
      508910 508919 507926 507934 509942 511947 512950 515950
      523944 531936 538928 541923 545920 552914 555908 557900
      560886
 0.01 525257 525246 524239 525232 527229 529229 531225 534222
      536218 539210 540197 539189 538183 535173 526158 522153
      518151 509147 505148 501147 498148 497154 495161 492164
      489169 488175 491182 493187 491191 488196 484199 477202
      450217 451222 453224 453231 448231 444232 441234 438238
      437245 436252 434254 437260 442258 446260 449260 452265
      455271 462269 468263 472260 476258 479261 480266 482270
      483276 485286 486292 487298 489304 494309 501312 506308
 0.01 499788 499775 498768 496764 494766 494771 492782 490793
      488802 484813 481822 478830 474838 465854 461862 459871
      456881 453893 451901 447910 443918 440928 437938 440935
      441938 440941 438949 443950 445947 450940 454933 459925
      465918 470913 474905 473901 476897 481889 485882 488875
      491863 491856 489851 485851 483849 485847 489841 494831
      497820 498804 499788
 0.01 448097 421083 418078 418072 417060 415049 413045 410042
      406043 404040 404034 405030 410029 414027 419022 425014
      429007 433998 434990 435983 436978 435975 430979 426976
      425971 423968 419968 411972 407973 402975 398977 394977
      389979 387984 382990 378997 372003 366009 363012 361016
      356025 354029 351032 345039 340045 333049 329050 327053
      325056 324062 318068 312076 302078 298079 292077 278071
      269068 260066 236041 232041 229043 226050 226056 227060
      231066 236071 245077 258090 263096 268101 273106 283108
      293111 298113 301116 303120 309121 318118 326116 330115
      334115 340116 345117 348119 351122 356126 365129 368131
      372130 377130 382127 396123 403118 406116 409113 412110
      416107 419109 425110 429109 432106 435104 439102 445100
      448097
 0.01 444933 445930 443928 442930 442931 440933 440935 442937
      443935 443934 444933
 0.01 432885 431879 426878 420877 418874 417870 417864 417855
      417844 416835 415828 412822 409817 404815 397816 392819
      388823 387829 387836 392838 397842 398844 400848 398854
      395859 391864 388870 376889 371900 371909 376909 386905
      392902 396899 405892 411889 418889 427888 431887 432885
 0.01 395798 395793 393791 391788 389787 385788 384790 379796
      372806 368811 364816 356828 350837 352839 355835 357834
      360829 365825 370820 373817 377817 379814 382814 386809
      391804 395798 395798
 0.01 371750 370742 370735 368727 366721 365717 363715 360710
      352704 345704 340706 331712 321719 315729 311738 307748
      302772 297781 291790 287791 286793 278794 264796 255796
      250799 246802 236808 233812 232818 235823 239825 241830
      242837 244843 246847 256853 271864 278866 283867 290867
      295868 302868 306866 310863 313859 317847 319834 322823
      326812 331800 332795 335791 339786 343784 356781 360778
      364774 367770 369763 371750
 0.01 230993 234000 240007 249012 253012 257010 263005 267003
      269003 276003 279001 284992 299984 303981 306977 312969
      317963 325958 333953 339952 343950 361945 367937 370934
      370932 350932 345932 340929 334921 328917 319919 297924
      288925 279924 275925 270923 266915 261907 251906 244906
      242907 241910 240914 240922 246939 247945 246950 245964
      243969 241974 237973 232976
 0.01 367907 367903 365902 362903 358903 357905 355905 353908
      351912 353914 357914 360914 362914 366912 366909 367907
 0.25 533206 534198 533190 531178 529172 525168 518161 513159
      510159 509162 502171 501176 503183 504188 505195 507200
      512205 515208 520210 524213 529213 533206
 0.25 520269 521261 520255 518249 515243 511234 506221 503212
      502209 499206 493206 484207 479208 476210 473214 472218
      473220 477225 477228 475228 468234 460239 459243 463242
      467243 469245 474248 479251 482254 488264 492274 496286
      497292 501295 506294 510291 513287 515281 518275 520269
 0.25 417010 417006 413006 410006 407007 405010 404012 402016
      401019 402022 405023 409021 411020 413018 414016 416013
      417010
 0.25 404878 405873 403870 401871 399874 397875 395877 393879
      391881 391886 392888 394888 397887 400885 401883 402880
      404878
 0.25 363742 362733 361728 359725 354722 348720 343717 339716
      335717 330720 325726 322731 319737 319745 320753 320759
      320769 324775 331774 342768 348765 353759 357756 361750
      363742
 0.25 343107 343106 342105 341103 341102 339100 338100 338099
      337100 337102 338102 339104 339105 340107 341107 342108
      343107
 0.25 341089 342087 342085 341083 341082 339080 338080 336079
      334079 333079 332082 333084 334085 335086 337088 338089
      338091 339091 340091 341089
 0.25 321106 321104 321102 319101 318101 316100 314100 312100
      311100 310101 308102 308104 308106 308109 309110 311110
      313111 315110 316110 317109 319108 321106 321106
 0.25 308833 307823 305814 304812 299812 291814 285813 277813
      265806 261806 257806 255810 257813 259815 257817 255826
      257833 262839 272848 277852 284854 292854 299851 303846
      307839 308833
 0.25 293096 291092 289089 286086 283084 278082 274081 272083
      271087 275092 278094 281096 287096 292096 293096
 0.25 300954 300949 299946 294941 291937 285935 272938 266940
      259939 257940 256944 255952 254960 253968 255974 259978
      263982 266985 270985 279976 288969 297960 300954
 0.25 261992 262990 260989 260990 260992 260993 261992
 0.25 259998 259994 255990 251989 246988 240989 239993 240998
      244002 247004 251005 255004 258000 259998
 0.50 529202 530189 529180 525173 519167 517170 516173 512171
      510170 508172 507175 506181 509189 513195 516203 522205
      525205 528202 529202
 0.50 519266 519260 517256 513247 505229 502219 499216 494212
      486213 483214 483217 486220 489223 490227 494237 499244
      503248 502251 499255 495252 493246 490244 486243 485246
      485249 491258 497276 500285 505288 509287 518268 519266
 0.50 481244 481242 480239 480236 479235 478233 476232 474233
      473234 472236 472239 473241 474242 475242 476244 478245
      479245 481244
 0.50 356743 356739 355734 353731 351729 345727 338727 339725
      337722 333723 331725 327729 323736 326738 330734 335730
      336735 334738 331742 328749 327756 328760 330763 334765
      341763 346759 351754 356743
 0.50 303838 303832 302826 300822 296820 285822 276824 271825
      266827 263829 264834 269841 276846 283850 291849 298844
      301842 303838
 0.50 293956 294951 292946 290944 287943 279943 271945 265949
      260954 259958 260964 263970 272971 279968 285965 290960
      293956
 1.00 512255 510249 507243 504238 501236 500232 499227 496221
      493220 492222 493229 496234 501238 503244 507250 512255
      512255
 1.00 520191 520188 519186 519185 518183 517182 516182 514181
      514182 514183 515184 515187 516187 517190 518191 520191
      520191
 1.00 294836 295833 293830 289829 285828 281827 277828 273830
      270833 273836 274840 277842 282844 287843 290842 293839
      294836
 1.50 288837 288835 286834 284833 282833 280833 280834 279836
      280838 281838 282840 283840 284840 286840 287839 288838
      288837

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.