Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 231855
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 PM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 24/0000 UTC THRU MAY 25/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...

...EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...

A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...PRODUCING
A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS FROM GA TO SOUTHEASTERN VA
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THEREAFTER...MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED.  MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST FROM THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED.  IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW...A WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE CORRESPONDING WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
INTO SOUTH TX.  THIS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...DRIVEN BY A SEASONABLY ANOMALOUS DEEP UPPER UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER THE MS VALLEY.   AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY IS FORECAST TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH WITH A
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE DIGGING TO ITS SOUTH...SCOURING OUT 500 MB
HEIGHTS THAT ARE AS MUCH AS 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
AS IT PIVOTS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON WED.  EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST
INTO NORTH FL LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED AS WEAK SUBTROPICAL ENERGY
INTERACTS WITH THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE.  MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
SOUTHWESTERLY INFLOW AMPLIFIES AND THE MID-UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  MODERATE TO HEAVY
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON EVENING ALONG THE EASTERN GULF
COAST INTO NORTHERN FL AND COASTAL GA.

TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CENTER AND REMOVED
FROM THE DEEPER MOISTURE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ADVANCE EAST
FROM THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WED
MORNING .  BY LATE WED...GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS
WITHIN A COMMA HEAD DEVELOPING OVER THE OH VALLEY.

AS IS TYPICAL...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD WITH
RESPECT TO THE FINER DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST.  TO ADDRESS
THE DIFFERENCES...THE WPC FORECAST GAVE SIGNIFICANT WEIGHT TO A
HI-RES ENSEMBLE FOR THE LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED
PERIODS...INCORPORATING THE 12 UTC GFS AND 00 UTC ECMWF FOR THE
LATER PERIODS.

PEREIRA

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 25/00Z
 0.01 427635 430639 431647 432659 432665 431670 430680 425700
      421709 418713 417719 415727 411733 403748 400754 397761
      394768 395773 400773 404776 405781 405787 404790 406792
      423793 440786 441778 440771 439764 436759 434749 434744
      436739 440721 442712 445706 451700 455698 458696 461693
      460697 459702 459708 466704 472698 474687 476677 479664
      481654 483650 485647 487648 489655 489661 489666 489674
      488678 488690 486698 481716 466752 463761 465764 466771
      467779 466785 466789 465794 463799 462803 464807 465817
      466829 467836 470831 475825 477825 479827 476834 473843
      465861 458879 457883 457891 453901 449911 446920 440938
      437940 432941 428935 424934 421938 415941 410942 410937
      412935 418927 422924 422921 421918 417919 415922 408927
      401932 395938 387941 379942 353928 350934 346940 342946
      336950 320959 306968 293978 284994 283005 280015 279018
      275018 271020 268019 261017 256012 250008 248008 247014
      245018 242020 235015 232011 231008 230004 230999 231988
      232982 232976 231972 231966 232956 232949 233941 233930
      234924 236904 239884 232878 230867 232858 235850 241831
      243811 244802 246795 250788 257783 263779 266777 270777
      278775 285772 287768 290763 295756 304742 316729 322722
      323713 325710 329708 336703 342699 348693 357682 362677
      368671 372665 375660 379654 382648
 0.01 545188 551117 556088 556073 554059 552042 550036 547033
      540024 536021 531022 522025 513029 502028 494024 493023
      489022 488022 487027 486031 483032 478029 469033 464035
      462039 458050 454053 452061 454068 449068 448070 445070
      441072 438071 431070 428065 424063 422067 425072 427075
      430073 433073 439074 443072 447076 449082 450087 454090
      462095 465095 468098 471096 474091 476086 489066 498062
      501059 504058 507060 512068 508078 506086 502090 498093
      495097 494108 492117 488130 478129 474131 471136 470140
      472144 477146 477150 474151 472151 470155 470157 471160
      473165 477169 485171 488174 488177 492183 492191 490198
      487203 483206 467212 464216 462219 459219 455221 456226
      458229 457232 452235 449237 447241 457246 467245 472247
      476247 480246 482244 482241 479235 474234 469233 470226
      473220 477220 480222 488229 490230 493229 496231 500243
      502247 503253 503255 497254 495254 493259 494267 497279
      506287 514285 519273 523260 525251 525245 524238 528235
      531233 533230 536223
 0.01 492163 492160 491160 490158 490157 489155 487155 486154
      484156 485159 486161 487162 488164 489167 491165 492163
 0.01 455115 456110 456108 454105 453100 451097 450097 448097
      448102 447104 449107 450110 452112 455115 455115
 0.01 435107 437103 436100 434095 426089 422091 422096 423101
      421107 418118 411124 409126 412129 416132 417136 416139
      409146 404144 401146 399150 394151 392153 389157 385161
      383165 378176 369178 367183 367188 376194 383202 386203
      384200 381195 377189 373186 375186 379187 381182 385182
      393177 395170 396168 399167 405169 408171 414177 415181
      413183 410188 408194 408199 409204 407208 405212 409214
      413217 416215 417207 416201 419196 419190 417186 417183
      419180 422152 422149 421145 422137 426127 429120 429118
      433116 433110 435107
 0.01 414229 414226 413222 409223 408225 406228 404230 403228
      400226 398229 401231 404232 406231 409232 413231 414229
 0.01 276937 275934 274936 269939 266944 263949 261954 260962
      261965 263963 266959 270954 272949 274943 276937
 0.25 537210 539201 539193 539178 538164 538151 540135 536126
      534121 532117 529113 525110 520108 514107 512110 509115
      507120 503123 502129 502137 505148 505156 504163 503172
      503179 507190 507206 507211 508217 510222 514226 519225
      521223 529220 533218 535215 537210
 0.25 457857 453850 449844 443844 437845 427847 423846 420844
      416840 412833 409828 404824 400820 397811 394807 394801
      396795 394790 392788 386785 379784 372783 369781 368776
      372758 385753 391748 395744 398740 402733 408721 412711
      415703 417695 419686 420677 419657 417648 412644 408644
      404646 399650 391659 382669 376678 362702 357708 351713
      339721 330732 324742 318753 316758 312762 303772 294782
      285793 283809 278813 272817 267819 263823 256833 250843
      248849 245857 246861 249864 257863 255881 251895 250911
      246924 246931 249933 257926 268917 276908 280903 286898
      297891 304887 310885 316885 318887 319890 318897 320904
      314915 310921 306928 305936 306941 307944 310947 314948
      316946 317942 321926 322919 327916 330911 335908 346903
      344908 340912 338915 334915 332915 330918 324931 324937
      327940 330941 332940 339930 346919 352907 355902 359898
      366897 374897 389900 395897 400894 412888 417887 422888
      427893 434902 439906 443904 445897 447889 452877 456867
      457857
 0.25 301954 302949 301946 298941 294937 290935 285936 282941
      282949 282958 283966 286969 292967 296964 299959 301954
 0.25 272001 269990 270978 268974 264975 259982 255982 254980
      252976 248972 244974 241974 240977 238981 237993 240997
      244999 253003 258005 264005 269004 272001
 0.25 239963 239961 239963 239965 239963
 0.50 533206 533200 533194 534187 534176 534163 534151 537142
      537136 535131 531127 524126 518127 512127 509133 511142
      514149 517159 516169 514180 514185 515190 517209 524213
      531211 533206
 0.50 445872 447868 445865 443862 439861 436861 428866 421871
      412875 409877 409880 420880 428883 433890 436893 439892
      442882 445872
 0.50 414687 414677 413668 406660 402657 399658 389667 369700
      363709 356716 348724 339731 319761 292795 285814 280821
      273826 267828 262831 257839 252847 250853 250857 251859
      256858 260856 265854 265859 262868 260878 259892 255903
      251913 251918 255914 267900 274894 280889 289883 296876
      308858 311850 318843 323841 327842 332843 335848 334854
      332860 334866 337870 343873 345877 349888 369884 374882
      379881 388882 395881 398881 402871 405866 406860 415852
      414848 411844 403837 396833 393830 391826 392819 390814
      382809 377799 373794 370795 364794 360792 357788 356783
      359773 361765 366753 368748 372745 376746 380748 387747
      390744 394734 396728 399725 405718 409709 411704 413696
      414687
 0.50 334900 333898 331898 329899 328900 327900 326901 325902
      326904 328903 329902 331902 333900 334900
 0.50 297956 297954 297952 297949 297947 296945 294943 292942
      290941 288943 287945 287947 287949 287952 288954 288955
      289956 290957 291958 292959 294959 295958 296957 297956
 0.50 257000 257996 257994 255991 253988 251986 250984 248983
      245984 243986 241988 241992 242994 244996 247997 249998
      253999 255000 257000
 1.00 403687 403681 402676 399671 395672 393674 390681 387687
      384693 377702 369713 360723 352733 345741 336750 327761
      320770 312779 298801 295807 292812 287821 279832 276838
      274846 272858 268872 268880 270881 273879 283871 292863
      299855 303850 307844 310839 313833 320821 324810 327803
      327796 327787 330780 334774 337770 342767 348765 353764
      357759 364747 370737 374732 378728 381726 384726 390729
      393713 395710 398708 401703 401699 400694 398689 397684
      401685 403687
 1.00 364814 363810 360809 355814 348817 345823 341830 340833
      342834 348839 352846 354846 355841 355838 354835 354830
      356826 361821 363819 364815 364814
 1.50 371727 370725 366728 364731 361735 358738 356741 355746
      359746 362742 364739 367735 369732 371727 371727
 1.50 312818 311807 310805 307805 302808 297812 289822 282831
      279839 278846 277854 279861 284865 288861 296852 303842
      306835 309829 312818
 2.00 307822 307816 306811 302813 299815 292821 287829 284836
      283846 283852 285853 287852 294849 300842 304833 307825
      307822
 3.00 302825 301823 299821 298821 295824 293826 293830 293833
      293836 295837 297836 299833 300832 301827 302825

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.