Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 300629
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 30/1200 UTC THRU MAY 31/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND

TD BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY SLOW MOVING THIS
PERIOD---DRIFTING NEWD ACROSS NORTHEAST SC INTO SE NC AS PER THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST.  THE REMNANT CIRC WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF
HIER PWS NEAR ITS CIRCULATION..THOUGH THE MAIN RIVER OF HIER
TROPICAL PWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF SE VA/NE NC AND NEWD INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE DELMARVA AND
SRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PD.  SOME BURSTS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE
STILL PSBL NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER TODAY WITH SOME 1 TO 2
INCHES PSBL..BUT THE AREAL EXTENT SHOULD BE SMALL.  FOCUSED SELY
FLOW FARTHER N SHOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY WIDER SWATH OF 1 TO 2
INCH RAINS INTO NE NC/SE VA AND THE SRN DELMARVA.  ONLY SMALL
CHANGES TO CONTINUITY WERE MADE GIVEN GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS..WITH
SOME HIGHER WEIGHT GIVEN TO SOME HI RES GUIDANCE.  ISOLD FF
PROBLEMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER PERSISTENT
RAIN BANDS ACRS THE ERN CAROLINAS NEWD INTO ERN LONG ISLAND.

SOUTHERN PLAINS

VERY LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS THIS AREA ON HOW CONVECTION
WILL EVOLVE WITH BROAD WSWLY FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF WEAK
POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACRS THE SW EJECTING VERY WEAK IMPULSES OUT
ACRS THE SRN PLAINS.  SURFACE PATRN IS QUITE WEAK HERE WITH NO
WELL DEFINED SFC BNDRY TO FOCUS ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF A
WEAKENING DRY LINE.  EARLY MORNING MCS ACRS TX APPEARS BEST
HANDLED BY WRF ARW AND HRRR GUIDANCE AS IT DROPS SEWD THRU THE
CNTL AND SRN PART OF THE STATE.  OTHERWISE...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO BE
HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND OLD OUTFLOW
BNDRIES PROVIDING MAIN TRIGGERS.  BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG
WITH PWS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS ACRS PARTS
OF CNTL/SRN TX NEAR AND EAST OF THE BIG BEND WITH EARLY MRNG MCS
PROVIDING PSBL BNDRY FOR SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MON
AFTN/EVE.  USED A COMBO OF WRF ARW/HRRR GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE PD
THEN TRANSITIONED TOWARD A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND IN HOUSE BIAS
CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN DUE TO LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY.

NORTHERN AND CNTL PLAINS..INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY

SHARPENING UPR TROF DIGGING SEWED THROUGH SW CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
FORM A CLOSED LOW ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND MOVE TO THE VCNTY OF THE
ND/MT BORDER BY TUES MRNG.  THE STG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT A
DVLPG LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH 85H S TO SWLY FLOW
INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS AHEAD OF THE WAVE.  INITIAL HEIGHT FALLS
AND INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING AREA OF STORMS
ALONG ASSOCD COLD FRONT THRU PARTS OF ND/SD BY MON AFTN SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY.  EMPHASIS WILL SHIFT E AND SWD ALONG
AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT MON NIGHT FROM MN SWWD INTO WRN
KS WITH SEVERAL ORGANIZED STG BANDS OF TSTMS LIKELY ESPECIALLY
NEAR INTERSECTION OF SFC WAVE AND NWD MOVING WARM FRONT THROUGH
SRN MN.  PWS APCHG 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO POOL ALONG THE BNDRY
LIKELY SUPPORTING AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNT OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES.
 THE WRF ARW IS FOCUSED CONSIDERABLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH QPF MAX
ACRS IA WHICH AT THIS TIME A AN EXTREME SRN OUTLIER.  MANUAL QPF
LEANED CLOSER TO A HI RES NAM/UKMET/CANADIAN GEM CONSENSUS WHICH
KEEP HEAVIER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO PROGGED WARM FRONTAL BNDRY.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 493611 498620 502631 511650 512654 514658 518668 524685
      529704 534727 542766 542773 544779 545794 546809 545815
      545823 544835 543844 541854 539864 537886 536913 536917
      535920 534933 531952 531957 530955 526952 524948 522947
      518942 515939 513935 506890 504883 503872 502862 500854
      496845 494836 490818 488813 487808 484795 483791 482783
      480779 479770 476761 474758 472754 469748 465745 461743
      455740 452738 448741 437749 432754 429760 421769 417776
      411783 400797 397804 392810 383821 375830 366842 363847
      356852 352858 350859 346860 330855 327847 325842 326838
      329833 335828 340823 347818 349817 347815 342816 335815
      332813 328812 321808 318807 315809 308811 303814 304820
      305825 304837 304848 305852 306860 306863 303862 300857
      297848 296836 295832 293830 288828 272828 265826 261822
      255818 250812 245807 245803 249801 252799 257798 266801
      272804 278806 281807 286807 296806 308801 312800 312797
      310796 309790 305784 298786 299779 302774 309769 316764
      320761 324759 323757 317757 311756 305754 303751 299749
      295744 292726 294721 300716 305715 310715 318715 334712
      373707 381705 387701 390699 393695 398688 429644 434639
      437632
 0.01 552138 553121 553112 552104 550099 548093 540085 539078
      538072 535064 527041 524033 521022 518012 513999 510988
      507980 506974 506967 504964 504957 503951 502944 501941
      501935 501931 499929 497924 492921 482919 456894 453891
      450890 446889 443891 439894 437894 436898 433901 427902
      424903 422899 417891 409877 407873 405875 396881 392884
      390888 387902 385906 382911 377917 367915 362914 358911
      352907 348908 345909 337913 328916 319915 315911 313907
      308899 307888 306883 303882 298884 296889 295903 294909
      295912 296916 299925 301931 303934 317945 323950 324952
      323954 322957 316963 309967 302972 300975 295976 292977
      287976 279972 271968 266966 261967 248983 241986 237989
      235991 241996 245998 248002 243008 240011 241013 245022
      246026 249030 252037 258043 267054 274059 278059 281061
      286063 295067 302068 308066 315063 322058 336047 349038
      359036 363035 368039 375033 380027 383026 385029 386032
      391034 395035 393039 386048 384053 384059 385063 384067
      382069 378069 376071 375080 380085 385088 387091 392099
      395103 391107 384110 378114 371115 361118 352119 350121
      355124 360127 368133 372138 375143 377146 381144 382136
      382131 384129 389121 395114 403111 407110 409105 408099
      404097 400094 398092 398089 400084 402078 407077 410076
      413075 415071 416064 416059 417049 420041 425034 429029
      432028 435029 439032 441038 440040 441043 445041 445031
      447030 450031 452034 455045 456049 454051 451053 446060
      440059 437061 434066 434069 435071 443076 446084 448087
      445091 442093 438091 435088 432087 428084 425085 427090
      431093 439098 446101 451105 453108 456111 463108 466107
      467110 469115 474124 483140 488140 492142 500144 504143
      508144 516146 528157 532160 535160 543160
 0.01 543160 544158 545158 546156 546155 548153 548150 549148
      550146 550145 551143 551140 552138
 0.01 383197 379193 375189 371185 364183 361182 355182 353184
      355186 361188 366191 370195 377197 383197
 0.01 393968 394954 394950 392948 389950 384956 380961 377963
      375965 370967 362970 356976 357982 360984 365985 368985
      375980 382975 389970 393968
 0.25 525738 523727 522719 519703 514686 509673 503659 499654
      494655 492656 491660 484662 480667 479673 483681 487684
      490684 491686 491690 490693 490696 491701 493707 493723
      493732 494742 495752 497760 499769 500779 501789 503793
      507800 511799 515794 517787 518778 518770 523766 524760
      525738
 0.25 524110 525104 524098 522087 520077 519067 517051 512032
      506016 500999 497993 493987 488983 484977 479958 477950
      476939 474930 471921 465910 460903 456901 453901 448905
      445913 440926 437931 431936 421950 417954 412961 409967
      402969 392975 386979 380986 376992 374999 373008 374010
      378011 384011 390015 395020 399021 402019 412010 426987
      434984 436985 436989 434993 434996 437999 444002 450004
      455008 460013 463018 468052 474065 478070 482076 486083
      492089 502100 506106 510112 513117 515124 517125 519122
      521117 524110
 0.25 528846 528836 526826 523826 519832 516837 514844 514853
      516861 519868 522872 524870 525868 527860 527849 528846
 0.25 459652 459649 458648 457647 455646 455645 454645 452645
      450647 449649 449650 448652 447653 446655 446656 445658
      447659 449658 450657 451657 452656 453655 455654 457653
      458652 459652
 0.25 442672 441663 439662 436663 430670 417682 403697 395703
      388707 378714 370718 359722 349724 338727 328733 327737
      327742 332750 335754 338758 340764 338767 333769 330771
      328775 327778 328781 329785 327791 327798 330802 332805
      336806 345804 355798 360791 365784 372777 380771 387765
      399751 412737 422722 428711 432701 439685 441677 442672
 0.25 363943 364938 363934 361929 357924 352922 344923 341926
      338932 338937 339940 342945 346949 352951 357949 361945
      363943
 0.25 353007 350000 345998 340000 338002 335001 335998 332996
      332992 324989 317990 314991 313989 312981 309977 303977
      298979 293982 290987 288989 285989 279988 267988 264990
      264994 265000 265006 267011 269019 272023 281029 293034
      299034 303032 308028 314026 319026 323025 325018 327016
      330015 341017 346017 351014 353007
 0.25 270816 270814 267812 265810 263809 261807 259805 256804
      252805 252808 254810 255812 257813 259815 261817 263819
      266820 268818 270816
 0.50 512728 511715 509705 507695 505690 503688 499695 498705
      499714 500724 501736 504743 507746 509745 512736 512728
 0.50 513066 514056 514051 513045 510034 502013 497003 493998
      489997 485000 482999 479996 476992 477987 475979 473972
      472964 471960 467957 468949 467940 465935 462928 458918
      455912 452910 448920 446925 443930 436938 430947 425954
      419964 415975 425977 435975 447972 451974 454979 454987
      450991 448995 450000 460008 466015 473022 479027 483024
      485030 487033 486036 482034 479032 477033 480038 482040
      480043 479046 480050 483052 489051 493056 496064 498070
      501072 504072 510070 513066
 0.50 424703 423699 420694 417692 414694 409699 402703 396709
      389713 376721 367725 360727 351730 343733 340734 340738
      342742 343746 344751 347753 352758 353764 352769 350772
      346774 341774 339773 337775 337782 336787 331792 331798
      334801 338801 345796 351795 356790 360785 383764 394752
      404743 410736 415730 418723 421716 423708 424703
 0.50 405003 406995 403991 397991 396987 397982 395979 392980
      388981 383988 378997 376002 377008 381008 384006 388007
      390011 395018 399015 401012 405003
 0.50 354941 355938 354936 354934 353934 352933 351932 350931
      348931 346932 345932 343934 344936 344939 345939 346940
      347941 348941 350942 352942 354941 354941
 0.50 322005 323003 323000 319999 313002 310994 309988 309982
      307980 299980 294983 292991 289993 284993 279995 275000
      274007 274015 277022 283024 290026 297025 303021 307017
      310016 314016 316014 316011 316008 320008 322005
 1.00 508040 506032 504026 501020 498014 495009 490006 487012
      488020 491027 494031 499034 504037 508040
 1.00 474009 474001 472996 470992 468989 464987 460989 457993
      459998 462001 465003 468006 471010 474009
 1.00 464981 465979 465976 465974 464971 462970 460971 459974
      459976 459979 460981 462983 464983 464981
 1.00 455940 455932 454927 451926 449928 447931 442938 435945
      431952 428956 426961 426966 430968 433969 436967 442960
      446952 452946 455940
 1.00 393997 392997 391995 391994 389993 388993 388990 387990
      385992 385993 385995 384997 383997 383999 383000 385000
      386999 387999 389999 390998 392998 393997
 1.00 381754 379750 374751 371752 366754 363758 364764 363769
      363772 366772 371770 374768 377764 379759 380756 381754
 1.00 353782 353780 352779 350779 348780 347782 346783 345784
      345785 344788 346789 348789 349788 351786 352784 352782
      353782
 1.00 338795 339793 337792 336793 335794 335795 335797 336798
      337797 338795
 1.00 307007 307002 306997 304994 303987 303983 297983 295986
      295991 293996 293001 295004 298008 302010 306009 307007
 1.50 498026 498023 498022 497021 497018 496016 495013 493010
      491010 490013 490015 490018 490020 491022 491023 493025
      494027 496028 498027 498026
 1.50 449942 449935 447937 444940 442943 439947 437950 435955
      433959 433962 435962 437959 439954 442951 445947 447945
      449942
 1.50 374765 372765 370765 370766 372766 374765
 1.50 302002 302000 302998 301996 300994 299995 298996 297998
      297000 298002 299002 300003 302002

$$





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