Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 211915
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
214 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 22/0000 UTC THRU DEC 23/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CNTL/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE DURING THE PERIOD AS THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY SHIFTS E OF THE PAC NW AND THE
RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND BUILDS INTO THE PAC NW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
NEAR THE WEST COAST...AN ADDITIONAL 1-3+ INCHES OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OR CASCADES...ALONG THE AXIS OF MOST ANOMALOUS
850-700 WESTERLY MOISTURE FLUX AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
OTHERWISE...OVER TIME THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/DEEP
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER DOWNSTREAM AND RESULT IN MOD-HVY PCPN
AMOUNTS OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE GREAT BASIN
(ESP ACROSS THE WASATCH RANGE)...AND INTO THE COLORADO ROCKIES.
ADDITIONAL AREAL-AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIV AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE BETWEEN .50 AND 2.00 INCHES OVER THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MORE FAVORED/ELEVATED TERRAIN.

...CNTL U.S...

STG JET PUNCHING INTO THE PAC NW WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO
DEVELOPMENT OF LEE SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND ON MON WITH
THE JET EXPECTED TO DIG SHARPLY SEWD THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
AN AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS/PVA IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF
MIXED WINTRY PCPN FROM ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS SUN/SUN NIGHT AS
LOW PRES AND ASSOCD PAC FRONT PUSH EWD ACRS THE REGION. PER THE
PMDHMD...A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/UKMET/CMC WAS PREFERRED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...GIVEN INITIALIZATION ISSUES WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AS
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WERE AGAIN A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW
TRACK BY 00Z TUE (ALONG THE NE/IA BORDER) COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/UKMET (OVER ERN SD). THEREFORE...ONCE AGAIN WPC OPTED TO
REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING THE WETTER NAM/GFS/SREF GUI DANE ACROSS THE
CEN PLAINS/CEN MS VLY. THE UPSHOT IS A BROAD AREA OF QPF AMOUNTS
AVERAGING BETWEEN .10 AND .25 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THEA AREA...WITH
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO (OR ABOVE) .25 INCH ACROSS THE EASTERLY FLOW
UPSLOPE FAVORED TERRAIN OVER ERN MT/NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD. =

...SOUTHEAST U.S....

SLOWLY BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF SHARPENING UPSTREAM LONGWAVE TROF
WILL HELP DRAW DEEPENING TROPICAL MSTR NEWD FROM THE SRN GULF/WRN
CARIBBEAN REGION TOWARD THE ERN GULF OF MEX ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BNDRY...WITH PWS INCREASING TO OVER 1.75 INCHES ACRS
CNTL/NRN FL REGION BY MON MRNG.  THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MSTR
FLUX INTO THE FRONT...AND STRENGTHENING RT ENTRANCE REGION JET
SUPPORT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT OF RAINS/TSTMS ACRS NRN
FL INTO SOUTHEAST GA WITH LIGHTER RAINS NORTHWARD AS NORTH NRN VA.
 MANUAL QPF GENLY FAVORED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH GIVEN SMALL DETAIL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING TIMING OF WEAK UPR DISTURBANCES LIFTING NEWD
ACRS THE NRN GULF AND CONVECTIVE POTNL OVER NRN FL. GENERAL 1-2
INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHERE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE STORMS DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY TRAIN.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 23/00Z
 0.01 510297 500284 492271 490263 489260 486256 478254 469252
      465253 463259 463263 461268 459277 458282 455281 442281
      439280 437277 435267 433256 430253 425253 418252 410250
      404250 395248 391246 389243 389238 389234 392230 398229
      405228 407222 404219 399216 396212 397210 399206 406211
      409213 411213 410206 410201 413198 416192 416187 415184
      406172 402170 398171 395168 395164 396152 400148 411140
      415135 418128 415124 412126 407131 402135 398141 394137
      388133 381131 375133 373128 377122 380112 386106 392104
      397101 397097 396095 389098 381099 375095 371089 369081
      369075 365071 356082 353081 351077 351075 354074 357069
      358064 357060 355051 352046 347039 346036 346030 346024
      348019 350016 353015 357020 360022 363020 369024 372026
      374028 376027 379021 385023 390027 396030 403034 409037
      417038 423044 428050 431056 432063 434066 442069 446069
      448072 452078 450082 448080 440078 436078 432077 424073
      421074 420077 423083 429088 435091 442091 447091 451092
      461101 465103 468100 467094 469091 471090 477094 479101
      480110 477114 475114 468117 488139 484145 483148 483153
      484156 484161 479167 471168 464170 463181 460188 456195
      455200 458203 466202 472200 478198 484198 487197 490199
      495202 498205 502210 504216 509223 514228 516228 517224
      517216 516212 514208 510202 504197 499191 495184 493179
      492169 492163 494160 500159 502153 506153 510159 513160
      519166 527177 534188 542198 533230 531232 530232 526233
      525228 524224 521226 520231 521234 522240 523242 525245
      526247 527249
 0.01 545144 544136 542129 536118 534112 532106 528100 525094
      521081 518076 517070 520067 519062 513051 510045 509043
      510040 512037 515034 515028 517024 516018 512014 510013
      508015 502024 499026 498030 493028 487026 483022 475014
      473012 473009 477002 482993 494970 494964 496957 496952
      497948 499942 502926 505911 519888 521881 525878 529874
      530867 530863 531859 531851 529846 525844 515837 507830
      502826 497827 493831 491837 489840 488838 483836 479837
      478840 473841 467844 462848 459852 457858 452869 442865
      421859 398866 389872 380880 363892 353900 344906 335912
      326917 322920 321926 321935 321939 324940 332949 341954
      362963 368966 373970 378977 387984 393985 398990 398997
      401003 406014 411017 416021 418027 420033 427039 432043
      436048 445056 452061 473073 483082 486086 489092 491107
      493112 496118 499122 503125 512132 522140 531146 532149
      535150 539149 545144
 0.01 547906 546899 543895 534896 529899 526904 524909 521915
      519920 519928 522941 523951 525957 527960 530960 531958
      532941 532932 534925 537923 541917 543913 547909 547906
 0.01 460308 461306 460308 460308
 0.01 451674 449669 445671 442675 437674 429680 421688 420692
      424696 427699 425703 427708 432711 440712 445708 447705
      450699 450694 451679 451674
 0.01 443128 444123 443120 441118 439118 437120 434120 432122
      430125 429127 429132 429136 430138 434138 435136 436133
      438131 440129 443128
 0.01 224877 240884 244886 246891 253893 254898 254903 251913
      248931 244952 244959 246963 250965 254965 258966 261964
      263961 268953 276950 283944 288939 292933 297925 301918
      304909 306901 310892 356844 361843 365840 369833 372826
      375815 376807 377802 382800 390796 395794 397791 403783
      406780 407775 409756 403735 399730 392724 385717 380713
      364709 354711 349712 347709 339689 335687 329688 324694
      318710 312727 309734 303740 295747 293755 291763 289773
      288781 287786 284790 281797 276804 271812 267819 263826
      258833 247844 236855 229860 222868 224877
 0.25 516285 513282 511280 510278 508275 507272 506269 506263
      507258 507253 507251 508248 511248 513250 515253 517255
      520258 521259 524261
 0.25 491217 490210 487207 482205 478205 470210 463214 459216
      453215 444215 441213 438213 434214 426218 423220 421222
      420225 424234 419234 415236 414238 417242 427245 436242
      440241 442236 449229 452226 456224 464222 471219 475217
      480217 491217
 0.25 491876 492872 491868 489864 485862 482861 479863 477867
      475872 477877 480881 483882 488881 490879 491876
 0.25 481138 481135 480135 479134 477133 476132 474131 473131
      471133 470135 469138 470140 470141 472142 473142 475142
      477142 478141 480140 480139 481138
 0.25 470155 470150 468145 465142 462139 458137 455139 453142
      452149 452154 456157 460158 463158 466160 469158 470155
 0.25 471043 471038 469038 467039 464040 462042 460042 457044
      456047 457049 459052 461053 464053 466051 468049 470046
      471043
 0.25 453186 453183 450181 447180 444181 442183 440185 440190
      441193 443194 446194 447192 450190 452188 453186
 0.25 441689 442686 441686 440687 439690 441689 441689
 0.25 450044 451039 451034 452029 449027 445027 442027 440030
      438033 437035 437040 438043 440045 442048 444049 447048
      449046 450044
 0.25 432171 433166 431162 429156 424150 422140 419139 417142
      413148 411153 409155 408160 410163 413165 417167 420168
      421173 426174 430173 432171
 0.25 432109 431105 427105 421105 417111 414111 414108 411101
      407098 404105 402107 398108 392109 387112 383117 380124
      384127 389125 393123 396124 402127 405126 407123 411119
      418118 422117 424115 425112 428111 432109
 0.25 433099 432097 431095 431094 429093 428092 427094 427095
      428096 429098 430099 431100 432101 433099
 0.25 428987 429983 428978 426975 424975 421974 417974 416975
      415979 417982 419984 420987 421989 424991 426990 428987
 0.25 414073 415066 414061 407055 402054 397054 389057 384058
      382060 379065 376067 374068 373071 374078 374082 377086
      387087 391085 396085 403081 405077 410075 414073
 0.25 409884 407883 407882 406882 405882 404884 404885 406885
      408885 409885 409884
 0.25 386760 384752 381745 374735 365728 354722 343717 334709
      331710 330713 330718 328720 322730 314741 308752 303764
      299775 296782 293788 287799 282810 277822 273828 269832
      261840 252847 243855 238860 235866 235870 237874 242877
      248879 254880 262880 268876 272874 277878 282889 282895
      284901 291891 300882 304869 308863 311858 318849 324836
      332827 336821 339815 343812 347807 350801 354796 358792
      364789 369789 375787 379782 382775 385768 386760
 0.25 356768 354767 354768 354770 353773 353775 353777 354779
      355777 355775 355772 356770 356768 356768
 0.50 522266 520265 519263 517263 516262 514261 512261 511262
      510262 510265 510266 510268 511270 511271 512273 512274
      514276 514277 515278 516280
 0.50 451222 451219 449218 444216 439215 435216 431218 427219
      424222 424225 426227 429230 434232 439231 442229 446227
      449224 451222
 0.50 429168 429166 428164 427165 426167 425168 427169 429168
      429168
 0.50 420152 420151 420149 419149 418149 417151 417153 416153
      416154 418156 419154 420152 420152
 0.50 419161 418159 418157 416157 415158 415160 416161 417162
      419161
 0.50 418116 417115 415115 413115 412115 411115 412115 413117
      415116 417116 418116
 0.50 408117 410112 410108 409105 406105 403109 396110 391112
      387115 384120 384123 388123 392121 399120 404120 408117
 0.50 413071 410063 405058 397057 391060 386064 382070 379072
      376076 377081 379080 386077 389080 393080 400079 403072
      412072 413071
 0.50 380766 381763 379760 378758 375753 368744 352729 343722
      338719 335719 333722 322741 310762 299782 293792 290798
      289804 285814 280823 272833 264841 247854 240863 239868
      241872 246875 251875 256874 263871 283860 289857 294853
      301847 310839 315830 325807 334784 340773 345764 351754
      354751 357750 362751 367755 371759 373765 371770 373774
      376771 380766
 1.00 442222 442219 440217 438217 436218 433219 431220 428221
      426223 428225 432226 433227 436228 439226 441224 442222
 1.00 345745 345738 343732 342728 338725 335728 333732 329741
      320756 311771 303785 298793 297797 297802 296808 294811
      288818 278831 273837 266843 254852 247858 244861 243866
      246869 249869 257866 271857 287848 294843 301838 306831
      310824 311819 312814 314805 321789 325780 330773 335766
      339759 345745
 1.50 438221 438220 436220 434220 436222 438222 438221
 1.50 335752 334748 331750 328753 323760 316770 311777 306786
      306792 308795 311795 313793 315789 319780 326771 331763
      335754 335752
 1.50 302825 299824 293827 288827 286829 280833 272842 263850
      257854 251857 247860 245863 246865 252864 258860 267852
      272849 278846 288839 294835 298830 302825

$$




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