Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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427
FXUS04 KWBC 071840
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
140 PM EST WED DEC 07 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 08/0000 UTC THRU DEC 09/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

GREAT LAKES

THE CLOSED LOW MOVING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE TRAILING
TROF AXIS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.  INCREASING RH VALUES AND STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF AXIS WILL ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF OF ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD.  LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWS LIKELY THROUGH THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL U.P. OF MI...NORTHWEST
L.P. AND DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD TO THE EAST OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO WHERE A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FETCH ALONG THE LONG AXES
OF THESE LAKES WILL DEVELOP.  ACTIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL
CONTINUE INTO DAY 2 AND PART OF DAY 3.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

WESTERN GULF COAST

AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS---PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
THURSDAY ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS...WITH AREAL
AVERAGE MODERATE TOTALS IN THE .10-.25"+ RANGE DEPICTED.

SOUTH FLORIDA

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS PERIOD ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL PERSIST IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY DAY 1---SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE TOTALS DEPICTED---WITH ISOLATED
HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE


NORTHERN TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA--OREGON INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN

THE CURRENT OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE SHIFTING TO ONE DOMINATED BY WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHT FALLS
PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TO A POSITION OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
SIERRA---WEST TO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST RANGES
AND INTO OREGON AND FAR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON STATE FROM THE
CASCADES WEST TO THE COAST RANGES.  THE STRONGEST ONSHORE UPSLOPE
FLOW AND MOST ANOMALOUS PW VALUES ARE TARGETED AT THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN SIERRA WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIP TOTALS...1 TO 2" AREAL
AVERAGE ARE DEPICTED.  ELSEWHERE---AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF
.25-.50"+ ARE DEPICTED.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 541780 534733 528713 525704 521694 517684 516679 514675
      510668 504662 487645 482641 477641 461641 447646 444649
      441654 440658 442661 450669 456673 458674 462673 469676
      472678 472684 461694 458700 453706 447712 446717 446722
      445732 442738 430751 427757 422761 421764 424766 425771
      423775 417792 414808 413812 415815 419815 421811 428795
      431788 435782 439774 442765 449751 450743 449737 450733
      457719 466707 471701 475696 479693 483695 487695 490698
      493707 497714 498719 500724 504735 505740 507744 508751
      509754 511765 512768 513773 511794 509803 504813 500827
      495848 493856 491866 488889 485897 482898 480894 483886
      485881 483876 483870 481867 481857 483836 483826 481823
      476824 473826 470830 469828 468824 468818 466809 466797
      462786 460783 456783 449787 444792 438795 433800 428814
      431815 433819 436826 436833 431840 425843 418849 416851
      416858 419865 422868 427868 434869 441869 449868 455872
      458882 454892 450899 445904 441909 438916 436924 436935
      440945 442947 446948 450955 456961 457966 459969 484977
      491980 494980 497977 499974 501970 501957 522936 531926
      536920 539910 539895 538888 540884 539869 541858 540846
      540841 541837 540812 541780
 0.01 479261 480252 480240 479236 476232 473232 470229 470225
      471222 476214 476209 474206 471198 470190 469185 467180
      464172 462162 460153 459148 457145 448133 444126 441117
      437110 432104 425103 423106 419109 415110 412108 410101
      409098 406098 400104 386111 380114 375121 373123 373127
      378130 385129 388129 392126 398123 403123 408125 410129
      411132 405139 397138 391141 389142 388148 389158 385166
      384171 385175 388178 389182 389192 385191 383189 377185
      372181 363179 354178 351180 349184 354189 362194 363197
      362199 358199 355198 348194 345193 343198 343204 344208
      347216 355230 358246 360253 363261 368267 375272 382274
      391273 404271 410269 418269 434269 461264 479261
 0.01 453833 453830 453828 452826 452823 452821 451819 449816
      448819 448821 448824 449826 449829 449831 449833 449836
      450837 452835 453833
 0.01 388052 388049 385049 383047 380046 378044 374043 372044
      370046 370050 370055 372055 374053 377053 381054 384054
      386052 388052
 0.01 357943 359941 357938 355936 349932 340932 333935 328921
      320921 314918 311912 309904 308901 304899 302897 300892
      298889 297892 295893 292893 287897 284903 282909 281918
      280922 278925 273930 266932 260929 257929 254931 250935
      246939 240943 237949 235957 234966 231972 231977 233979
      233987 233995 238999 243004 247004 251006 261015 272020
      286025 288024 291022 294015 293008 288002 281993 285988
      292986 295979 298971 302965 304962 307961 309964 310968
      310977 310981 308986 308995 307000 307004 308014 308024
      309033 311039 309047 309054 312056 316057 323057 325053
      326047 327026 328017 327010 326989 325982 326970 327963
      327958 328954 330950 333949 339947 345946 351946 355945
      357943
 0.01 281813 280803 278797 270787 268783 265782 259782 254786
      248788 244793 242795 242799 243806 242811 241820 243825
      245832 248837 250836 252833 257836 265835 269835 271833
      275832 278831 280825 279817 281813
 0.25 467240 467235 462231 461226 464222 466215 463210 458208
      456204 452195 452181 449172 446168 440168 432171 434181
      435192 433203 433208 430204 427200 421198 415197 410197
      403202 400202 396200 386194 379189 375186 370184 364183
      360184 362188 367191 372200 374204 373208 365211 362211
      358207 355207 353211 354214 358223 363231 369239 373246
      377250 382252 394255 404256 413257 423256 440251 443249
      448249 457247 463244 467240
 0.25 475885 475878 475872 474861 473856 470853 467856 463858
      462861 460866 463876 463882 463887 461896 462905 465909
      468907 470900 473891 475885
 0.25 456850 456847 454845 453845 452845 451845 449846 448848
      448849 447850 447853 448854 448855 450856 451856 453855
      455852 456850
 0.25 424232 424230 422229 421227 419226 419228 421229 421231
      422232 424232 424232
 0.25 300952 301946 301941 300936 296937 293943 289949 285954
      279958 273962 271965 271970 275971 278970 285968 292964
      296960 299952 300952
 0.25 267800 266796 264795 262793 258793 256793 255793 251796
      250798 249800 250804 252806 256803 257802 261802 265801
      267800
 0.25 269962 266958 265952 261947 254945 250947 248949 246954
      244960 244966 246968 250968 255966 263966 267964 269962
 0.50 458242 459239 457237 453234 450231 449228 451225 455223
      458221 458216 455212 452210 448209 445213 440214 432215
      427215 424217 423221 426225 434230 436234 434236 425235
      417231 414228 415223 416218 415212 407211 378190 370185
      367185 365186 366189 372195 376202 380210 382211 380213
      377213 372213 369215 367216 364214 362212 357211 357214
      359219 362222 372236 377242 382245 388247 398249 406250
      415250 425249 431247 435245 439245 445243 451243 455240
      458242
 0.50 470890 470888 471885 470883 468883 467885 466887 466888
      466890 465893 465895 465896 466898 467898 468895 469893
      470891 470890
 1.00 426242 426240 426239 425238 423237 422236 421236 420235
      418234 416234 414235 414236 414238 415240 417242 418243
      420243 422244 424244 426242 426242
 1.00 411223 411219 406216 400210 394203 388198 379193 376190
      372190 376198 381204 388210 396216 405219 406225 408226
      410225 411223
 1.00 406238 406233 403230 397228 394229 389227 385225 382225
      378228 381232 384235 389236 394238 399241 404240 406238
 1.00 375225 375224 374223 373221 373220 372218 370218 369219
      368221 369224 371225 372227 374227 375225
 1.00 364218 363216 363215 362214 360214 359215 360215 361217
      361218 363219 364218
 1.50 400213 399211 398208 395206 394205 391202 389201 386198
      384197 381197 382201 383203 385205 388208 390209 393211
      394213 398215 400213
 2.00 397210 395209 395207 394207 392207 393208 394210 395210
      397211 397210
 2.00 391204 390204 389203 387201 386200 384200 385201 387202
      387203 389204 390204 391204

$$





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