Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 291742
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
142 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 30/0000 UTC THRU MAR 31/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...EASTERN U.S...

A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING S/WV TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE UPR
MS VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THIS PD AS IT PUSHES A COLD FRONT
RAPIDLY ACRS THE ERN GT LAKES..OH VALLEY..AND MID ATLC REGION
WHILE MOVING A TAD SLOWER ON THE SRN END OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY.  THE MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC LIFT WILL
BE FOCUSED ACRS CANADA THIS PD AND THE RATHER QUICK MOVEMENT..LACK
OF INSTABILITY AND MSTR..AND VEERING OF 85H FLOW GENLY SUPPORT
LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS SWD INTO THE NRN TN VALLEY REGION.   MANUAL
QPFS MAINTAINED FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH GENLY LIGHT PCPN
AMOUNTS FROM PARTS OF WRN NY/NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE NRN TN
VALLEY REGION..WHICH WAS GENLY SUPPORTED BY LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE.
SEE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON WINTER WEATHER.

FARTHER SOUTH...THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT TREND TOWARD INCREASED
PCPN AMOUNTS IN THE RETURN FLOW/85H THETAE ADV ZONE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PD FROM NEAR THE ARKLATX REGION
EWD THRU NRN MS AND NW AL...AS 12Z GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AN
INCREASE IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY DVLPG IN THIS REGION DURING THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT PD SUN NIGHT BEFORE GRADUAL VEERING OF 85H FLOW
AND GENL WEAKENING OF FRONTAL LIFT.  AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED
AMOUNTS THROUGH PARTS OF SRN ARK/NRN MS BASED ON 12Z NAM HI RES
AND CAN GEM GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE 12Z GFS WHICH ALL SUPPORTED
THE SHIFT WWD TOWARD BETTER INFLOW..85H THETAE ADV..AND BEST LI`S.


...WESTERN WASHINGTON / BRITISH COLUMBIA...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE AS MODELS GENLY SHOW DECENT RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY WITH THE APCH OF NEXT UPSTREAM S/WV TROF AND ASSOCD
FRONT SYSTEM LATE SUN NIGHT/MON INTO BC AND EXTREME NW WA.  MODEL
TIMING REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT HERE WITH MAIN FRONT BAND PUSHING
INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND AREA LATE MON.  HEIGHT RISES AHEAD OF THE
S/WV ACRS WRN CANADA/PAC NW SHOULD SUPPORT THE GENL SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS KEEPING BEST 85H INFLOW/CONVERGENCE
FOCUSED ACRS SW CANADA.  AS A RESULT...ONLY EXPECT SOME .25 INCH
PLUS AMOUNTS INTO THE OLYMPICS/EXTREME NRN WA CASCADES THIS PD.

...UPR MS VALLEY...

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT RESPONDING TO S/WV RACING DOWN E SIDE OF WRN
CANADA UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DVLP ACRS PARTS OF NW MN SEWD INTO
WI AHEAD OF DVLPG WEAK WARM FRONT AND SFC WAVE REFLECTION DROPPING
SEWD ALONG THE BNDRY.  THE NAM WAS A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THIS
FEATURE AND CONSEQUENTLY A BIT FURTHER N WITH OVERRUNNING PCPN
BAND..WHICH WAS LEAST FAVORED.  AREAL AVG AMOUNTS HERE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT GIVEN LOW PWS AND RATHER CHANNELED LIFT.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 526255 516232 504212 500209 495207 490207 486207 484209
      478215 482219 485225 486228 485231 480230 476228 473229
      470233 467239 464241 464244 467245 469244 471246 460267
      455278 454283 456284 461284 470283 475281 477280 480282
      486290 491295 496299 503299 509296 513293
 0.01 536220 538214 538207 536196 534192 532189 528180 527175
      525172 520165 518161 516158 509153 504153 507159 509162
      501161 497161 495163 489170 490173 493175 504188 508189
      511191 514194 515200 516205 518207 522209 525214 530219
      532220 534222 536220 536220
 0.01 549023 550017 550012 548006 545997 542990 539986 536981
      534973 532966 530962 523956 514947 507941 500934 494928
      487919 482914 479909 472902 465898 446887 439882 435880
      430880 428882 428886 430893 436904 441913 446921 453929
      457945 468959 477968 484975 484979 483981 479982 483990
      490997 494002 497008 501019 505029 510040 513046 515049
      518049 522038 526028 543032 546030 547028 549023
 0.01 520670 513659 509658 505659 502658 493656 487658 481658
      478658 473660 469661 466659 452659 439661 432662 423665
      420666 417669 410671 408674 405674 400678 398681 398685
      400689 403693 407694 419695 423696 427696 431697 432701
      429706 422711 419713 415715 408716 406719 406724 408733
      410737 413739 410742 400748 395751 390753 388755 386752
      390746 393739 393731 391727 390721 386715 384713 381713
      377712 378709 381702 381697 377691 371692 365694 360698
      353706 321751 318757 317764 315770 315777 317794 316800
      313805 307820 305826 304835 305852 304855 304860 304871
      303876 303880 304889 305895 308891 310889 311893 311896
      313898 315904 315912 315921 315926 314930 315938 314943
      312945 307952 304953 304958 308962 312962 314964 319970
      321972 325971 329969 330966 333968 333977 335979 338975
      339969 341962 345958 347951 347941 350932 354924 360910
      366898 369892 373888 381881 390875 393874 395871 399865
      407854 413850 420853 429864 440868 447868 451868 454869
      459882 463893 475887 477870 479860 482852 484844 486836
      493823 498811 506786 510778 513769 514747 513735 514730
      516727 519722 522715 525701 525695 526692 525682
 0.01 405769 401768 398770 396771 393773 391774 389776 387779
      388781 392781 393780 397779 400776 402774 403771 405769
 0.01 389116 387115 385115 383115 381115 379116 379117 381117
      383118 385118 387118 388116 389116
 0.01 381076 382072 380069 379060 376051 372045 369045 367048
      365052 361054 359056 361058 363059 366063 371068 373069
      374075 375082 380078 381076
 0.01 363740 363738 362736 361738 361740 362741 363740
 0.01 341100 341096 339091 337086 334084 333079 331077 328079
      327081 330084 333088 335093 336096 339100 341100
 0.01 336056 336054 336053 334053 332053 331053 330053 329054
      327054 325055 326057 327058 328058 330058 332058 334058
      336056 336056
 0.25 522267 519259 516248 513238 511233 509228 499214 495213
      492214 488215 488221 491231 492237 491238 482237 474234
      477253 473262 472269 475271 483271 487270 492274 496281
      504284 516279
 0.25 473758 473753 472748 470743 466738 462735 459735 457737
      453742 452745 453748 457752 462755 466759 470762 473758
 0.25 463797 463792 462790 459788 457788 454787 451787 448786
      447788 447790 449794 450797 452799 453801 457802 460801
      461799 463797
 0.25 437758 437755 436753 435752 434754 434756 435758 436760
      437758 437758
 0.25 358830 356827 351827 347829 343834 338841 334850 331860
      328872 328898 328908 329921 331932 332935 335935 337932
      341933 344930 346919 350909 352897 358876 359869 357863
      359850 357845 357840 358830
 0.50 516270 517263 516257 514248 511236 506229 501222 498218
      493217 491219 491224 493235 495240 498244 501248 504251
      508260 513268 516270
 0.50 507274 506266 503257 499251 495245 489239 484240 482243
      482249 482253 481257 483264 491268 496273 501279 505279
      507276 507274
 0.50 349901 349890 347877 346872 345870 343871 340880 337889
      335900 333909 332921 332924 333927 335927 338924 340919
      342916 345917 348908 349901
 1.00 513261 513252 511247 509239 505234 502229 499224 496222
      494222 493227 495231 496237 500242 503246 507253 510259
      513261
 1.00 504273 503267 501259 498255 494249 491245 488243 485243
      486251 487259 491263 496268 500272 504273
 1.50 510252 509246 507241 504238 501234 500230 497226 495225
      494228 497231 496234 499239 502242 504247 507250 510252
 1.50 501267 500264 498261 498258 496255 494251 492249 491247
      488247 488252 488254 489257 492261 494262 497265 498266
      501267
 2.00 497260 496257 495255 494254 494253 492251 492250 491249
      490250 489252 490254 490255 491257 492258 493259 494260
      496261 497260
 2.00 499237 499236 499235 498234 499237 499237

$$





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