Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 191835
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 20/0000 UTC THRU APR 21/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHEAST...

THE MODELS AGAIN GRADUALLY EXIT THE SRN STREAM UPR TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW TONIGHT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. THIS WILL TAKE MUCH OF
THE DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUT TO SEA AND DRIER AIR WILL BE
INFILTRATING IN BEHIND THIS SYS. NEVERTHELESS...THE MODELS STILL
SHOW THE WRN FLANK OF THE EXITING CLOSED LOW STILL IN SUFFICIENT
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SERN NC AND ERN SC FOR ADDITIONAL MDT
RAINS...AND
MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS WILL BE IN ASSOC WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE/COMMA-HEAD AND RESULTING DEEPER LYR FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. WPC GENERALLY FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE LED BY THE ECMWF.


...CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

A NRN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING NEWD OUT OF THE UPR MIDWEST OVERNIGHT
WILL HAVE ALLOWED A COLD FRONT TO DRAPE SWWD FROM THE UPR GRT
LAKES REGION DOWN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUFFICIENT LOW LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP THROUGH
THE MS VLY FOR A BKN AXIS OF SHWRS/TSTMS. THE STRONGER
CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO BE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
AS THERE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT AND THE SRLY
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF IT. WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MDT
TO LOCALLY HVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL KS/SERN NEB THROUGH
SUN. SOME ADDITIONAL CONCENTRATION IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTHEAST
INTO NRN IA/SERN MN AND SRN WI ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY.


...GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

SRN STREAM HT FALLS ASSOCD WITH AN UPR TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENTLY STEEP ENOUGH
LAPSE RATES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR NUMEROUS SHWRS. OROGRAPHIC
FORCING ASSOCD WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE PCPN
RATES LOCALLY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT LOW LVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TRANSPORT COUPLED WITH AN INFUSION OF MID LVL
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OUT ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. OVERALL THE RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE RATHER LGT...BUT SOME
LOCALLY MDT TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MATERIALIZE...ESP INVOF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...AND FARTHER
EAST OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE AID OF STRONGER DIURNAL
HEATING.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ADVANCING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST WILL
YIELD AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SUFFICIENT HT FALLS FOR
NUMEROUS SHWRS TONIGHT INTO SUN ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES AND
CASCADES OF WA STATE...WITH MOISTURE/ENERGY THEN SPILLING INLAND
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST FORCING
ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER NORTH AND AIMED INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA...SO PCPN AMTS FOR THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
GENERALLY LGT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME MDT TOTALS INVOF THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA AND FAR NRN WA CASCADES.

ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 21/00Z
 0.01 525256 519244 516238 514231 507216 505209 506202 508198
      511197 515199 519202 524208 528211 532211 534210 538204
      539199 538194 536185 534177 531172 530169 526167 523163
      519156 514151 508146 505144 502145 500145 498142 495137
      485129 480125 476124 462131 452146 446150 445162 451175
      450185 453188 458185 460181 461173 459174 458171 460168
      464167 472169 476170 478173 481178 482181 485183 488184
      489188 490193 487197 482202 477205 473205 471207 465209
      461211 450214 439219 438221 440223 443226 446226 465257
      462264 462271 465279 469282 481280 488281 492285 493290
      496300 505309
 0.01 554873 552863 550854 547847 544842 536829 529819 519805
      505798 499798 497798 496796 497791 497786 498783 496779
      494777 492774 489775 485776 482778 477781 473785 465779
      458780 456782 454786 432854 431862 430873 430890 429900
      427909 422921 418931 414938 409945 404951 399955 396957
      392957 385959 379962 365958 361956 356960 351963 346964
      342965 338965 336966 332969 325973 321973 317975 312978
      306981 301982 295982 286982 281982 277984 271988 268988
      266990 266994 268997 273007 268019 270026 273031 275034
      279035 282038 283042 284045 288048 291050 296051 303050
      306051 308054 310061 315069 319073 322080 322084 324086
      327090 333094 336100 341113 345119 348123 351124 354123
      352118 349112 347102 349098 353098 364095 366094 366090
      361083 361078 363075 365077 369078 371081 375087 380090
      387091 402084 407082 412075 416074 416068 417061 416057
      413054 411052 408051 402047 399044 396042 393038 393032
      406008 426979 440954 449942 454930 458924 461916 467905
      470896 475892 481888 484886 488887 491889 495889 500897
      502904 503912 504919 505928 505934 507938 509945 512951
      516957 521960 525963 533963 541950 544944 545931 547909
      547904 548901 553892 553881 554873
 0.01 524065 525053 525040 523029 522025 519020 510009 500995
      496992 493990 489989 484989 481990 479993 475995 461997
      453001 446002 439004 436007 434010 433015 434019 437023
      440024 447023 453027 457028 462029 466029 469027 476025
      484025 487028 489034 488040 487048 486053 485055 481061
      477069 477076 478082 480085 481085 485079 491072 499070
      504086 507089 512090 516085 519080 521075 524065
 0.01 413118 411107 411103 410099 412094 410091 406093 405105
      405109 403110 399107 396108 392112 385115 382117 379117
      377123 378144 383152 384159 387164 391165 394163 401153
      407147 407140 404137 399136 394137 389139 385136 384128
      386122 395117 404114 413118
 0.01 371709 370695 368689 365685 361682 356681 350683 345686
      339693 333700 320717 316724 309729 287739 276741 267744
      259751 257755 258762 261771 265774 270774 280776 284778
      289780 295787 298797 302825 308831 315834 321832 324827
      326824 330820 337826 340828 344826 351833 355831 358826
      363820 366810 365793 364787 361780 360775 359769 363760
      365749 367736 369721 371709
 0.25 523262 517256 512247 510237 504229 501221 496212 479211
      475212 472215 473219 476219 481219 488224 491226 491230
      492235 492239 489240 480240 478236 475234 474237 476241
      477252 477260 478264 481267 485270 494275 499282 502286
      506289 513291
 0.25 526180 522172 520168 516164 513161 512164 511168 509170
      504169 496165 488165 487170 490173 498175 505179 511186
      515188 520189 525182 526180
 0.25 483857 483850 481845 480842 479837 479831 477827 471823
      468821 466817 464811 459812 453818 450824 445841 441859
      436880 433902 431912 429918 423934 419943 415950 410956
      404963 395974 389977 381977 370977 362979 357979 354977
      348978 344979 337982 331984 324987 320992 318001 316005
      315010 312012 305011 301013 299017 285020 282023 283026
      286029 290030 295029 300031 303033 304037 306040 310041
      317037 326035 331032 334024 336017 339007 344002 353998
      359999 362001 364004 365009 370012 377010 383007 389003
      396999 403993 408987 417976 425964 431957 435949 437940
      441930 444922 446914 448904 451897 454888 456885 460884
      471870 477865 481860 483857
 0.25 401072 401071 399071 398071 397071 396073 397076 399075
      400074 401073 401072
 0.25 386049 385045 383042 381038 379031 377029 373029 367030
      364034 362036 361040 362047 363051 365053 372053 379054
      384051 386049
 0.25 367707 365697 361691 357689 352690 345694 340700 336705
      328720 323725 317731 304741 297744 288746 278750 272754
      271760 274763 277765 286764 295762 300760 303761 305765
      306770 306779 307793 308798 310801 314802 318801 324796
      328794 333792 337793 340795 345800 350807 353806 355801
      356792 354784 353776 353771 356762 360747 363736 364727
      366717 367707
 0.25 338073 337071 335070 333070 332071 331072 330073 329075
      330077 331078 332079 334078 335077 336076 337075 338074
      338073
 0.50 522267 513257 511250 508242 506236 501230 498224 493218
      495233 500248 499250 495251 490245 484247 483252 485255
      488260 492266 495272 499279 503283 506284 509283 518278
 0.50 490219 488218 488219 490219 490219
 0.50 473855 472853 472851 470851 468852 468853 467855 466856
      465858 465861 465862 467861 468861 469860 470859 471858
      472857 473855
 0.50 465836 463832 460832 458827 455827 451833 451839 452840
      452846 451852 450860 449868 451870 452866 454857 458851
      462844 465836
 0.50 446892 447884 445876 443876 441878 439883 436897 434909
      431921 427933 426938 428945 430943 433939 438928 440923
      441917 444904 446892
 0.50 418966 417963 414961 409964 401972 397977 393981 388983
      382984 375985 371988 369992 371995 375995 379994 384993
      387994 390995 396993 405985 412977 415972 418966
 0.50 364710 363703 361698 357694 350694 346697 342701 336712
      332720 328725 324730 309743 305747 304749 305752 313759
      314765 313770 312783 313790 317792 326786 331784 338783
      342783 345781 348776 350765 355754 358743 361729 364710
 0.50 374051 374048 372046 371045 369044 367045 367048 368050
      369051 370051 372051 374051 374051
 0.50 350987 344986 339987 333989 328992 325997 326004 327007
      329008 333004 336999 340995 344993 349989 350987
 1.00 504276 504271 503268 502264 501263 499261 496258 495256
      492256 493259 494262 495266 496270 497273 499275 502277
      504276
 1.00 357716 357706 355701 351701 347702 345704 341711 335725
      332731 329740 325753 319767 318770 319774 323775 328773
      336773 340771 342768 345761 349754 352748 354739 357723
      357716
 1.50 353726 352723 349721 345722 342726 339731 336738 334747
      332754 332762 334764 338762 343757 347751 350744 352735
      353726 353726

$$




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