Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 040641
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 AM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 04/1200 UTC THRU JUL 05/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...MID/LOWER MS VALLEY..TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

H5 S/WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. H5 TROF..MAINTAINING TROFINESS THRU THE
MID/LOWER MS VALLEY..TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS
PERIOD..WHILE INITIAL S/WV ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
H5 TROF LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THRU PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND STATES ON SATURDAY.  THE S/WV NOW VICINITY OF KS
IS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES BY SUNDAY MORNING.  LARGE SCALE
LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM..ALONG WITH A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY..WILL
SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX
EASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.  FOR
THE MOST PART..THE LATEST MODEL QPFS ARE IN REASONABLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THIS IDEA..SO WPC QPF GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF
THEM..BUT WITH A BIT MORE WEIGHT TO SOME OF THE HIGHER RES
GUIDANCE..AS PER THE ARW..NMMB AND NSSL WRF.  MOSTLY EXPECT
0.50-1.00+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS..BUT WITH SOME
ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.  FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST..DECENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION UP THRU
PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND STATES AHEAD OF
THE LIFTING OUT H5 S/WV SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE RAINS THRU THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY..WITH SOME OF THESE
RAINS CONTINUING ON SATURDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MD..SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THRU.


...CENTRAL PLAINS...

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET UP THRU ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT..ACCOMPANIED BY A DECENT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE/PWS..ALONG WITH WEAK H5 S/WV ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE H5 RIDGE THRU THE REGION..SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION MOSTLY THRU PARTS OF NE AND
KS.  STUCK REAL CLOSE TO THE HIGHER RES QPFS HERE..IN PARTICULAR
THE ARW..NMMB AND NSSL WRF.  CONVECTION SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE..AND
THUS KEPT AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCH
RANGE..BUT AGAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.


...WESTERN STATES...

H5 S/WV ENERGY RIDING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES RIDGE THRU PARTS OF CA AND NV.. AND ALSO
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THRU THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND ROCKIES..WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HEATING AND
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE WHICH HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE PARTS OF
THE REGION TO SUPPORT INCREASED CONVECTION THRU MUCH OF THE
WESTERN STATES.  WPC QPF GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF REASONABLY
AGREEABLE MODEL QPFS AND CONTINUITY..WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 567933 566918 562906 559900 557897 553894 548893 545893
      540895 537899 536901 535906 534911 533918 532924 532928
      530930 525930 522932 518934 515930 512925 509923 505924
      502925 498926 496928 489931 477943 471949 464955 448966
      437971 433971 430973 427973 406972 388963 373956 364945
      362944 361941 359936 356927 356913 359904 364893 367887
      367883 369876 370872 372857 377837 384822 389813 395806
      424788 431781 435773 439768 442764 449756 464716 460707
      456705 454707 445719 444724 440725 430727 420725 414726
      411723 411718 411710 412700 412696 413692 416688 419683
      420678 419666 412661 394661 353717 348725 344734 336754
      330763 327766 324771 320774 317778 314779 310781 249808
      247811 249815 255820 259823 263826 272830 284831 295832
      299834 302838 306845 305849 302853 297860 294863 293868
      290877 290888 293895 296904 296911 295916 294922 293927
      293934 295938 295968 301975 305973 308969 311965 315963
      319961 323963 348987 360998 364001 364998 366992 365989
      367990 370992 373996 375000 380009 384022 387025 391027
      396028 400026 408023 419021 437017 445013 449010 452007
      457003 463999 466997 470996 472995 474998 475002 477015
      477023 475028 474036 472041 470048 469055 467062 469067
      468082 467091 468097 468103 470110 473120 474126 471127
      469131 471134 476136 480140 482151 486160 488164 491165
      494164 498167 501168 505166 509159
 0.01 509159 512159 513162 518166 525175 526178 528177 531169
      533161 531156 528150 523146 520141 519135 516129 510130
      506130 505124 503116 506110 507101 507096 509092 510083
      513077 516071 519067 527057 530053 534049 541038 546026
      548019 550010 552003 555998 560984 562977 564969 566960
      567951 567933
 0.01 526708 526702 525699 524693 522689 519681 515677 511673
      508671 504672 500677 498683 495691 493698 489713 485730
      482743 480747 476749 474751 473754 471771 470774 470781
      470786 472789 480799 482807 486813 491815 495815 496813
      501809 505802 511789 513782 517775 519769 522760 523752
      522740 525725 526708
 0.01 417232 417227 418220 419211 420207 419195 413187 415183
      418179 417173 415170 414167 415165 416158 417153 414148
      416144 419137 419130 420123 417120 413116 410111 412101
      411097 411089 413078 417069 418064 417059 415052 411050
      407048 401047 396048 391049 381046 373042 366040 362041
      358042 349046 339048 330051 324052 319050 315049 310051
      305051 302052 291062 287065 284063 275058 266054 261051
      257050 251050 248052 246055 244059 243063 245067 247070
      250073 258078 266084 275090 279092 280096 287112 303121
      311124 319130 322130 324129 324126 321125 319123 320119
      326111 327108 331111 338126 342134 346137 351135 365124
      373129 383131 390135 393138 394141 391141 382158 381162
      378167 379173 378179 368178 363179 361181 361186 363189
      368195 375201 383207 390213 388210 390210 394213 397215
      398221 394230 395234 396237 398235 407236 417232
 0.01 335811 335808 334806 334804 334802 334800 332798 331800
      331802 331803 330805 330807 330809 330811 330813 330814
      329816 329818 330819 332818 334817 333815 333813 335811
 0.25 558963 559950 558944 556941 553939 553935 552927 545941
      542946 538952 536955 533955 531954 530949 525946 518946
      514950 511952 509952 505950 502950 497953 488963 484967
      481974 480977 480984 484989 490000 495006 499006 501005
      511000 518001 519012 520022 521031 524033 527031 531025
      538016 546002 551990 556974 558963
 0.25 516722 515716 513710 511707 506707 503711 502715 500726
      499739 498752 498758 499765 502767 506766 510758 512748
      515738 516724 516722
 0.25 497143 499137 498131 495123 493114 490106 486100 483098
      481102 480109 481114 482124 483133 487139 491145 495145
      497143
 0.25 433749 433745 432742 430739 426738 421738 417741 415745
      411753 408762 404771 403776 404782 407785 412785 418780
      424772 428764 431754 433749
 0.25 433004 434002 432999 430998 424998 412999 406997 403992
      392987 387985 382986 381990 382993 387997 391000 394002
      395004 396012 400014 413013 423010 429007 433004
 0.25 400197 396189 396179 398175 400169 395167 393170 391174
      391179 389184 386187 378188 373187 373191 379197 387202
      390204 394202 400197
 0.25 401748 399744 395743 392741 387740 382743 380746 378750
      374753 370750 370745 371736 371724 370719 366718 363721
      361725 358733 361756 359766 358777 358781 359787 362789
      365786 369782 373781 377779 381776 385774 387769 389767
      394764 397761 399757 400753 401748
 0.25 387093 387092 385091 384090 382091 380092 382093 383094
      385095 387094 387093
 0.25 381083 382076 380072 378068 375064 371062 366063 365068
      369070 371073 370077 368081 372082 374082 377085 381085
      381083
 0.25 370840 370828 367819 365817 361818 356823 352829 347835
      342839 336842 326842 318846 309855 307857 305861 303870
      301877 302884 303907 305914 304922 304927 305933 309939
      315942 319942 323943 327949 330956 334960 339961 341958
      342949 342937 344929 346923 355890 357880 359872 362865
      365858 368848 370840
 0.25 360089 355081 350075 345073 341074 334077 324080 316081
      310080 305078 298075 292074 286073 282074 278076 279081
      282085 288090 296094 300096 305096 314093 317092 320094
      328094 334099 341106 345105 347101 355096 360089
 0.25 349064 350062 348059 346060 344061 343061 341062 340063
      341063 342064 344065 346066 348065 349064
 0.25 302821 299817 296815 288812 280810 273805 268804 263805
      259807 258810 268812 272818 276820 281821 290822 300822
      302821
 0.50 555966 555960 553955 551953 548954 545957 541965 537973
      533981 529992 529000 530005 532010 535008 541000 545992
      550983 553974 555966
 0.50 519965 519958 517957 512960 507965 504968 501968 495972
      491980 492985 495987 500992 504991 507988 510983 515975
      518968 519965
 0.50 493137 494130 493125 490119 489115 487111 485106 482110
      483115 484121 486126 488130 489135 492138 493137
 0.50 418771 419769 418766 417764 416764 415764 414765 413765
      412767 411768 410769 410770 409772 409773 408775 408777
      409779 410779 411780 413779 415778 416776 417773 418773
      418771
 0.50 417006 416003 413002 410003 407003 404003 401005 400007
      401009 404010 408010 409010 413009 415008 417006
 0.50 393752 393750 392748 390747 388747 386748 385749 384749
      383751 382752 382754 382755 381757 382759 382760 384761
      386760 388760 389758 389757 391756 392755 392754 393752
 0.50 384198 386196 384195 383193 381193 379193 378194 379195
      381196 382197 384198 384198
 0.50 366840 367835 366831 363828 359829 352839 345851 339861
      336863 333863 327860 322860 318864 317872 314879 312885
      309892 308900 308906 308922 310930 312932 315933 321931
      325934 328943 330950 332956 336958 338956 339946 339935
      339919 342902 344896 348890 357863 364851 366845 366840
 0.50 343087 343085 341085 339086 338087 338089 339089 340090
      342089 343087
 1.00 338893 339891 340889 338887 336888 336889 335891 335892
      334893 335895 335896 336895 338893 338893
 1.00 327917 327913 327909 327904 326900 322901 320903 319905
      316907 315909 314913 315918 316918 319917 321918 324919
      327917

$$




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