Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 021844
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
144 PM EST MON MAR 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 03/0000 UTC THRU MAR 04/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHWEST

THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
BECOME PROGRESSIVE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
CLOSING OFF JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MONDAY NIGHT
EARLY TUESDAY.  THE INCREASED PROGRESSION WILL SHIFT THE AXIS OF
ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S.   MEANWHILE---THE NEXT CLOSING OFF UPPER
LOW WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP AS HIGH A PW VALUES AS THIS LEAD
SYSTEM WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL PRECIP TOTALS EXPECTED FROM
COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST.

GREAT BASIN--ROCKIES

HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE EJECTING SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN-CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW
TOTALS THROUGH LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
WASATCH OF UT.  POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WILL ALSO SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

NORTHERN PLAINS---UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES

THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO
THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL BE PUSHING QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION TUESDAY.  STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF
FAST MOVING OVERRUNNING SNOWS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS--UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY.  THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVY PRECIP/SNOW TOTALS---WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TOTALS EXPECTED.

SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC---LIGHT TO
 MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGION TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
ICING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES---OH VALLEY---CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR HANGS ON IN
THE WAKE OF THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 521821 521813 519810 515802 506784 500775 493769 480754
      467740 461734 453730 443732 437733 433732 426731 418730
      411727 403726 384726 378727 375728 374731 370734 368738
      360756 358765 355773 348792 329798 324805 320808 320812
      318821 319832 320836 321842 321845 320849 318853 310875
      309879 309884 307889 304894 300897 297901 290906 284910
      290916 293915 296915 296917 294922 291926 287933 281939
      277945 272952 268957 262964 258968 253970 246970 242971
      241972 243977 246982 249985 253994 256999 258004 264007
      274009 278011 283012 296012 300013 303013 306015 307015
      311011 321000 328993 332986 339978 341975 346972 361963
      380955 388953 394952 396952 398949 404951 407956 411962
      415971 415977 417982 413005 412019 412025 412029 410031
      401050 394049 389047 380044 371044 363046 358048 355051
      350052 347050 337051 333051 329049 324047 320048 314054
      308060 310067 302069 298070 292070 283067 270064 265063
      259064 258068 257075 253085 250088 248092 251098 255106
      262112 262116 264119 269122 273127 280124 288123 296120
      310112 315111 322111 326110 331112 333114 334116 336121
      338130 344138 353142 358143 362142 366143 369145 374147
      378149 383152 387150 393145 397143 399142 400146 391162
      389168 388175 389185 398189 403191 407187 409184 410179
      412176 416173 419171 422169 421166 421162 423155 425148
      429141 432136 434136 435140 436144 436151 436155 438160
      443167 447172 445177 443178 443181 443186 449191 451192
      454190 460183 463178 462173 461169 462166 464165 467166
      477172 485174 490175 492173 496169 499167 501164 503156
      504150 502146 498138 492132 489130 488127 487123 485118
      483113 482108 482100 483085
 0.01 483085 482079 482070 481062 478057 466065 465059 465049
      466031 470017 475004 479993 485982 489971 489962 492955
      505939 508903 509886 511880 514875 516874 516870 517862
      518855 518850 519845 521821
 0.01 455708 453702 450705 447708 442709 439713 440716 440722
      439728 441729 446728 451726 451721 452716 453710 455708
 0.01 359212 359209 357207 353204 351201 350194 348187 345173
      342167 336164 329162 322158 312152 301144 296140 288139
      282140 277144 268153 266155 266159 266163 268165 271168
      274169 279167 290161 295159 304160 301165 302170 309181
      316192 327200 333202 335201 336196 340198 344204 347208
      352211 356214 359212
 0.01 367117 367113 367108 364106 363104 359103 356103 354104
      352106 351110 352113 354115 356116 360117 363118 367117
 0.25 477857 474846 469835 461825 460816 459808 454797 448787
      444783 438783 432783 429780 425777 420776 409775 403780
      400784 396788 393794 391808 390815 390824 387835 383845
      379854 376866 376875 377879 380881 385878 388874 395863
      400853 404843 408838 412837 415840 418844 418858 415883
      416891 420895 429902 437907 444913 450922 452928 453935
      447966 436990 432999 430004 428011 427027 426034 424039
      417051 412054 407054 389062 386064 385066 381067 376063
      372059 369057 365057 357064 359068 361070 367072 372082
      375087 383089 395089 400088 404084 408082 411082 416085
      419088 425097 430102 436104 442106 446109 452110 457107
      460106 460104 458099 454093 450090 447087 449084 452079
      451073 445064 443057 444047 446040 445033 444029 444024
      446014 449000 452989 452984 452981 454977 459969 464958
      466952 468943 470927 472913 474906 473900 470885 469878
      467871 467865 471862 477857
 0.25 450819 449818 447817 446817 446816 444816 443817 444818
      446817 447819 448820 449819 450819
 0.25 432111 431108 429105 425105 423107 422110 419112 412110
      411104 410100 406100 403105 398109 387114 381117 377122
      374128 378130 381128 393123 406123 412121 418120 425119
      429116 432111
 0.25 341098 341096 340094 339093 339091 339090 338089 337086
      335085 334084 332083 331084 330086 330088 331090 333092
      335094 335095 336096 337097 338098 340100 341098
 0.25 334058 332055 330055 329055 328055 328057 328058 330059
      332059 334058
 0.25 331883 331880 331878 331876 332874 331872 331870 331867
      331865 330863 329863 328865 328866 328868 328870 328872
      327874 328876 328878 328881 329882 329883 331884 331883
 0.25 319095 319091 317088 313084 300078 293075 287074 279072
      273071 267072 263078 259092 259100 261102 264105 270107
      275108 289108 303105 313099 319095
 0.50 432097 432094 431093 430092 430090 429089 428087 427087
      426086 425089 426091 428093 428094 429095 430097 431097
      432097
 0.50 428065 429057 427053 422054 420060 416064 412061 408058
      403058 400062 396066 392067 389068 387070 386075 389079
      393082 395084 398083 401080 406077 417076 421075 426072
      428065
 0.50 409115 409112 409110 409109 407108 406109 405111 404111
      403112 401111 400111 398112 397113 396114 395115 395117
      396117 397117 399118 401117 403117 404117 406116 408116
      409115
 0.50 380078 380074 379071 378069 376067 374064 371062 370061
      367061 366065 368068 371070 372073 374075 376077 377078
      380078
 0.50 308091 307086 303083 294078 283075 273073 269075 266080
      264085 264092 265099 270101 281104 290102 300099 304096
      307092 308091
 1.00 299090 300086 297084 292082 287080 279078 274077 271081
      268087 271091 275096 281097 287096 293095 298092 299090
 1.50 288087 286086 285085 284084 283082 281082 279082 277083
      276084 275085 275086 275087 275088 277089 278090 280091
      282091 283091 284090 286089 287089 288088 288087

$$




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