Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 150636
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 15/1200 UTC THRU APR 16/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...EASTERN U.S....

STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASOCTD WITH THE
ADVANCING CNTRL U.S. UPPER TROF AND SHOULD SUSTAIN A WIDESPREAD
HVY RNFL EVENT ACROSS THE ERN U.S.  INCRSG JET DYNAMICS AND STG
HGT FALLS WILL BE AVBL TO TAP AMPLE MSTR EMBEDDED ALONG A STRONG
N/S BAROCLINIC ZONE WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY EWD...AT LEAST
INITIALLY...ACROSS THE REGION INDUCING WIDESPREAD MDT TO HVY RNFL
TOTALS.  MSTR AVBLTY SHOULD BE NO ISSUE AS DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW
RESULTS IN A STG NWD MSTR FLUX TO SUPPORT THE EVENT.  MODEL QPFS
SIMILAR THOUGH THE GFS ON THE WHOLE IS FASTER THAN THE
PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE WITH WORKING THE PCPN EWD PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ATLC STATES/SRN MID ATLC REGION.  STAYED
CLOSER TO THE SLOWER UKMET/12Z ECMWF/GEM REGIONAL SOLUTIONS ON THE
TIMING OF THE PCPN EVENT.  THE UKMET DID A VRY GOOD JOB YDA
HANDLING THE HVY CNVCTV RAINS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THIS MODEL
AGAIN FAVORS A PD OF HVY RAINS THIS MRNG/EARLY AFTN ACROSS NRN FL
EARLY IN THE PD.  STAYED WITH ITS SCENARIO FOR NOW WHICH SEEMS
SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS MODEL LLVL CNVGNC FIELDS AS WELL AS AN AXIS
OF HI PWS SEEN IMPINGING ON THE AREA.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

VERY PROGRESSIVE WLY FLOW WILL BRING ONE SHRTWV FM PAC NW TO THE
NRN PLAINS DURING THE PD ACCOMPANIED WITH GNLY LGT PCPN
TOTALS..WITH E SLOPES OF THE NRN ROCKIES SEEING TOTALS ENHANCED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW.  WAA PATTERN SETS OVR THE PAC NW DURING THE 2ND HALF
OF THE PD AS STRENGTHENING JET DYNAMICS..A WEAK IMPULSE AND
ONSHORE FLOW COMBINE TO INCREASE SHWR ACTVTY.

KORTY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 16/12Z
 0.01 540205 540197 542190 543187 544181 544177 543173 536158
      529143 523131 517119 512115 507112 499110 493104 490101
      487095 484087 480081 473069 465055 465050 463048 461040
      456027 454018 455012 458004 463999 468997 473000 479015
      487027 497039 503049 508046 509037 509025 507020 504013
      501006 498000 495994 489980 487969 485962 482954 479946
      474933 467921 464915 459910 453908 450906 446906 443906
      441908 440914 439925 440937 440942 441945 442955 443961
      442967 441971 438973 431980 429983 428989 427997 425005
      425016 424028 424039 427042 434044 437053 437061 425080
      423079 422082 421084 421089 424096 428101 423104 421107
      422110 428113 428123 432121 436117 439117 441120 441124
      440127 440134 441137 443137 446138 447141 451147 452149
      456151 459155 460158 463160 466167 467172 470173 472171
      475170 481175 484181 489183 492184 493189 491193 491198
      485203 471206 467209 460209 443223 444226 448227 452228
      454230 445238 445245 451249 455250 459253 462258 464257
      467259 473264 478270 482276 485282 491288 494290 497291
      500293 506295 510292 512280 512274 512271 516272 518268
      519263 517259 514253 512244 512233 505220 501213 500209
      502204 504197 506197 508199 523221 533230
 0.01 524701 523694 521689 520681 517676 515671 512667 506653
      502645 495641 486639 478634 474631 471630 461630 452634
      442641 433647 425652 417658 407664 391675 381680 372686
      362692 353698 340711 333717 327724 320731 317735 315741
      312751 310755 306758 297762 288766 280770 271776 263781
      256789 254793 250795 242801 238809 235818 239825 241829
      245833 253838 262842 271845 268855 265863 269874 274880
      279883 283884 292881 302875 310870 318865 328862 333863
      337865 348864 353863 357860 365854 373848 389838 398833
      407829 415824 425820 450817 458812 463809 467806 474801
      482796 489790 493787 496782 499778 501773 506763 513742
      518732 520726 521720 523709 524701
 0.01 413120 413115 412115 408114 407110 409105 407102 406105
      402108 397103 395105 396108 394112 396115 399116 401118
      404123 408121 413120
 0.01 415071 413067 416064 413060 409058 405055 399055 393061
      389063 384063 383064 387068 385072 388077 389082 393084
      397089 399087 402082 405079 409076 413074 415071
 0.25 525177 526171 524166 521159 517153 512147 507142 500138
      494133 490129 483124 477121 472123 472133 473136 477139
      483142 488147 494151 501155 504157 507160 511167 516172
      525177
 0.25 502275 502264 502262 500259 495257 491254 490247 487243
      484240 476231 472233 469236 464238 466243 475250 485255
      490265 493269 497273 500276 502275
 0.25 507711 506701 501690 497681 493672 473646 467643 459644
      451647 443652 428663 416674 403683 395688 388693 374704
      362714 338737 333742 329748 324756 319763 315768 309773
      305776 303780 302784 303791 302794 298796 292801 279811
      273815 267820 269825 271828 274831 278834 280836 282840
      281850 281861 282866 286867 292864 300860 307856 314851
      320847 328843 336841 345841 352839 359834 362831 366831
      370831 374829 386820 398809 403804 403800 404798 407795
      414791 422786 438782 456774 462771 469766 482754 487747
      494741 499736 504729 507720 507711
 0.25 496226 496221 494218 493213 489211 483208 477210 471213
      465216 460220 461224 465224 471222 473221 478221 482223
      485223 489222 491224 496226
 0.25 474114 476109 475104 475101 474098 472094 471091 468093
      466095 465099 463102 462104 462109 463112 466113 467115
      471116 472115 474114
 0.25 397805 396804 394804 393805 394806 396805 397805
 0.25 391808 389807 388808 389809 391808 391808
 0.25 267798 266797 265796 264796 263796 262798 262799 263799
      264799 266798 267798
 0.50 497711 495702 491693 482677 478670 474659 470653 463650
      457651 449655 442660 434666 423677 410687 383705 377709
      372714 367721 362727 356732 350736 344741 338748 334754
      330762 324775 322784 322787 324791 326793 328795 327798
      327803 325807 324812 322816 320818 316818 313817 314813
      314811 311809 308809 301811 291813 284817 278822 278826
      280829 285834 288842 287850 286857 287860 289860 292858
      300855 307851 319843 325839 333836 342834 349831 361820
      372808 383798 394789 401784 409780 425773 438765 450757
      465748 471743 476737 489727 495720 497715 497711
 0.50 494145 493142 492139 491137 487134 486133 483131 481130
      479130 480132 482135 484137 485139 487141 489144 491147
      494145
 0.50 480244 480242 480241 478239 478238 477237 475236 474236
      473237 472239 473241 474242 475243 476244 477246 478246
      479245 480244
 0.50 483217 483214 482213 481212 479212 478213 477213 475214
      474214 473215 472215 471216 471217 473217 475217 476217
      477217 478217 480217 482218 483217
 1.00 472713 473709 472705 468699 465695 463693 464688 468678
      468674 467670 464663 460661 455663 445670 435677 428684
      420691 410698 401704 391710 387713 383718 379722 374725
      367734 358740 351747 344755 341761 341768 345779 348783
      350785 350789 348796 346801 334819 332823 331829 334830
      337829 342827 351820 358812 364804 372796 388782 396775
      402773 407770 418764 423761 427758 434751 438748 442742
      450735 458729 468722 471718 472713
 1.00 313828 307827 302826 296824 292825 290826 290831 291835
      292841 292847 293849 296849 300846 305842 308837 311833
      313828
 1.50 450689 447688 444691 437697 434700 432698 433694 431694
      424697 416701 401711 396715 392723 381734 377742 372749
      369751 364752 358756 355759 353762 355766 358768 368768
      372774 375776 377775 385770 391764 394762 393759 393750
      395746 399743 407744 410745 409749 405756 404760 408760
      414755 419750 425744 432739 435737 437732 442727 449722
      447719 443718 440718 436715 436705 440700 443695 450689
 1.50 358805 356805 354805 353806 352806 351807 349809 348811
      347811 346813 346814 348813 349813 350813 352813 353811
      354810 355808 356807 358805
 2.00 417717 416715 415715 414715 413715 411717 410718 409719
      410720 411719 413719 415718 417717 417717
 2.00 414727 412725 411727 413728 414727

$$





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