Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 221811
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
211 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 23/0000 UTC THRU AUG 24/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DAY 1---WITH THE
CORRESPONDING AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY MOVING IN TANDEM. SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS PERIOD IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY WHERE 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE DAY TUE.  LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
FARTHER SOUTHWEST OF THIS INTO SOUTHWEST TX IN A REGION OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER TROF.  MANUAL PROGS
USED A MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS...INCLUDING THE 12Z WRF ARW
AND NSSL WRF.

...SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
ROCKIES...

BROAD UPPER TROFFING WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA--INTO THE SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL ROCKIES.  UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS.
AREAL AVERAGE LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS EXPECTED---WITH ISOLATED
HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.  THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FORECAST BY THE MODELS
ARE IN THE SAN JUAN MTNS OF SOUTHWEST CO.

...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CONFLUENT FLOW LEADS TO AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BNDRY.
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP TUE IN EASTERN SD/NE AND IN NORTH
DAKOTA/NORTHWEST MN AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION PROVIDES
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING SO DIURNAL HEATING LEADS TO DESTABILIZATION
AND SHOWERS WHERE PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS.  SPEED CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
FAVORS LOCAL MAXIMA NEAR THE IA/NE BORDER. LIGHT PRECIP TOTALS ARE
FORECAST DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER LAKES REGION WITHIN A REGION OF
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FROM 850-700 MB. MANUAL PROGS BLENDED
CONTINUITY WITH THE 12Z MODEL/HIGH RES ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS.

...GA/FL...

THE MODELS SHOW A POOL OF HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN FL TO SOUTHERN GA.  THERE ISN`T EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH A LOW LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE.  DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM SEA AND LAKE BREEZES
SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  MODEL
SOUNDINGS IN NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SHOW A LOW LEVEL EAST NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW DEVELOPING TUE AFTERNOON...
SO THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD MAKE STEADY INLAND PENETRATION.  BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WHERE BNDRY COLLISIONS OCCUR....BUT
SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND BRIEF.  THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SO A CONSENSUS BASED APPROACH WAS USED.

PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 24/00Z
 0.01 562085 564063 564050 563040 559027 557018 554012 550007
      548998 547990 544981 535955 530942 525927 520913 517907
      515898 514879 513875 513870 512859 508840 507830 506823
      505814 506805 505782 498745 497735 498726 500708 499700
      498690 497686 495683 494681 491680 483690 475702 473707
      471714 470722 470731 471741 470749 470759 470769 470778
      469785 467792 465797 462812 463817 464819 467819 468816
      471816 472819 473823 472828 470835 466839 461843 454844
      452847 453853 453859 452864 448867 445872 445877 449884
      456893 460898 463905 465910 470910 470900 471888 472881
      474875 479870 482870 484872 487874 488877 487885 488895
      488901 487906 485912 485921 485932 484942 482949 479955
      466959 464963 462970 461981 462984 465986 471988 475991
      478998 482002 481009 481019 481024 479029 479037 478044
      480050 482052 485053 488053 490050 497041 499039 501041
      501047 501054 499057 495071 494079 493086 494094 493104
      493112 493125 489131 485128 481132 480136 481140 489150
      493156 495160 494166 497178 501182 507184 518189 529197
      535199 539197 543190 545181 549164 552155 553145 555134
      556123 558115 559106 562085
 0.01 457966 457961 456956 452947 450942 444940 437937 429934
      426933 422934 416934 411933 406926 394912 382902 376898
      367895 351888 335883 327879 325876 323869 321865 323861
      329855 331852 337850 341848 347847 350844 352842 357834
      355831 351828 345828 342827 340825 338816 336806 335801
      331799 330793 326794 324797 320790 318789 315789 308790
      306792 303797 299804 293808 283806 280804 274805 263806
      259807 255811 251816 250820 247823 247827 249829 255829
      258830 263831 269832 277834 282840 288846 292869 292880
      292890 293914 293939 293946 295950 298960 303962 307962
      312958 319943 323934 325931 326937 326953 326959 325964
      323969 320971 316980 315985 314992 311000 307004 303006
      296010 288026 284032 276037 269040 260039 239037 230039
      226048 226054 227058 226060 228062 231071 235079 241088
      245095 251101 262104 266105 271106 278106 288108 295111
      300113 305113 309115 309112 317108 323098 320092 317085
      315081 318082 326087 331095 334103 337109 338111 337116
      335120 337126 341132 344134 345138 351144 356145 359143
      361144 361147 359151 358163 358168 360174 362178 360183
      362187 365190 372194 380199 389203 392203 395203 395200
      393195 389193 376183 373180 371176 370172 370167 383156
      387149 390138 405128 406122 404122 398124 395128 391128
      390126 391123 395122 399115 399112 401111 405110 409108
      409101 408095 404098 402100 400101 399099 398095 399089
      404082 410077 414070 414064 413058 410047 407043 403041
      395038 390037 387037 386035 395018 427999 440992 452982
      455975 456969 457966
 0.25 553130 555108 554090 554082 554071 553063 552056 551048
      549040 544028 539016 534004 532998 531987 530979 527974
      520964 517949 514936 509922 507925 507935 508946 508955
      508964 507975 502981 500988 501998 502005 505012 516034
      519038 519048 518058 519068 523067 527067 534075 538087
      541103 541122 540129 537135 527131 520130 516127 512127
      510130 509135 507139 504147 505153 509158 512163 514170
      518173 525175 529178 534179 539177 543171 547158 550144
      553130
 0.25 498773 497767 495758 492745 490738 486736 482748 480759
      480768 481776 485791 487796 487803 490809 493809 496807
      498794 498778 498773
 0.25 461878 461876 461875 459875 458876 459879 461879 461878
 0.25 434959 431952 428949 424947 417950 412954 406959 404961
      402966 405973 412976 419975 426971 431966 434959
 0.25 398064 398060 395057 388056 385057 382060 381064 377064
      373064 369066 370073 371082 373085 375087 382091 385089
      388086 388083 391080 396076 398066 398064
 0.25 385120 385115 380114 374119 370121 367118 363116 360116
      354115 349114 345116 345125 349132 354134 358133 362132
      367132 372134 378133 382125 385120
 0.25 386936 386932 384927 380920 369912 364908 358905 354905
      350903 346899 342897 338897 341902 344907 342915 345934
      346954 346974 345982 341988 329996 324000 320007 316013
      316020 320020 323019 328014 331012 333012 337013 340012
      345006 349000 351992 357988 362983 366977 369969 370965
      373963 377959 381952 384943 386936
 0.25 366938 366936 366935 364936 363935 361934 359933 359934
      358936 358938 359941 359943 360945 361946 361945 363943
      364941 364940 366939 366938
 0.25 346057 345052 342051 334051 327049 321046 319043 319039
      317031 313026 306028 301031 296036 292041 287045 282048
      276050 270052 263052 255051 248049 244048 239051 237054
      236058 236066 239072 242078 251087 255091 261094 268096
      276098 282100 288099 291098 293095 296088 298080 301074
      305069 311067 317065 324064 330064 338063 343061 346057
 0.25 334086 334085 332084 332086 333087 334086
 0.25 329831 329822 326817 322813 320808 308811 300812 293813
      288815 286816 285820 283823 284827 289830 293833 297838
      300842 302848 305850 309849 313845 321838 326835 329831
 0.25 312890 312886 311882 310877 310875 308871 306870 305873
      305878 305880 305883 305886 307890 309891 312890
 0.25 278817 277815 275815 273815 272816 273817 274818 275819
      277818 278817
 0.50 551121 552113 552105 550101 551096 551093 549093 548099
      548104 548112 547117 545122 546128 548127 550122 551121
 0.50 545147 544143 541143 532145 525141 520139 516140 513142
      510146 512152 514155 519163 525171 528173 532173 536171
      538167 542157 545147
 0.50 550088 549085 549084 549082 549080 548078 548077 547075
      546076 546079 546082 546085 547087 548089 549090 550088
 0.50 380078 381076 380074 380073 378071 376069 375071 375073
      375075 374078 375080 375081 377081 378080 379079 380078
 0.50 351126 350124 350123 348122 348123 348125 348126 350127
      351126
 0.50 309824 307822 305821 303820 301820 300821 299821 298823
      299825 300826 302827 304827 305827 307826 309824 309824
 0.50 308047 308045 308043 308041 308040 306039 304039 302040
      301042 300043 300044 299046 299048 299050 300051 301051
      302051 303050 305049 307047 308047
 0.50 296071 298066 297062 294057 279057 263057 256057 250056
      246055 244057 242064 244070 247075 250080 255085 259089
      265091 274092 280091 284086 288082 293078 296071 296071
 1.00 529162 529159 528157 528156 527155 525154 524154 522154
      521154 520157 521159 522160 523161 524163 526164 528163
      529162
 1.00 276075 276069 271066 266064 259063 254065 253067 252071
      254075 259080 263082 270084 274081 276075

$$





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