Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 010700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 01/1200 UTC THRU SEP 02/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW ROTATES INTO
WESTERN B.C.   AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INLAND INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND THEN POST FRONTAL ONSHORE
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM THE WASHINGTON/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES---WESTWARD
TO THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE/WASHINGTON COAST RANGE AND
OLYMPIC RANGE.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED---WITH
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES.

SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WIDESPREAD SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION AGAIN LIKELY
IN THE AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MONSOONAL PW VALUES
STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS---WITH AREAL
AVERAGE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE TOTALS EXPECTED.

CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY

SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY DAY 1.  WEAK UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IN AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.  WITH CONFIDENCE LOW ON DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS---DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE IN HOUSE
ENSEMBLE MEAN--NOT WANTING TO COMMIT TO SOME OF THE HEAVIER TOTALS
OF THE 1200 UTC SUNDAY ECMWF OR LATEST HI RES RUNS.

SOUTH OF THE LOWER LAKES TOWARD THE OH VALLEY

A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE ELONGATED
UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD DAY 1
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF OH RIVER.  SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE---BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW HERE GIVEN THE MODEL
SPREAD.  LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS AS PER THE HI RES MODELS.

SOUTHEAST TO COASTAL TEXAS

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SHOWERY CONDITIONS DAY 1 OVER SOUTHEAST AND
COASTAL TX IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  PERSISTENT ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROF AXIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS THIS PERIOD ALONG LARGE PORTIONS OF
COASTAL TX.

FLORIDA

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW TO NORTH
FLORIDA WILL ENHANCE UVVS IN THE ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA DAY 1.  MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING DAY 1 FOR FL WILL BE IN
THIS AXIS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 02/12Z
 0.01 536212 537204 537195 532183 531177 528171 521161 514153
      510149 507147 504147 504153 504157 501156 492160 488162
      486167 491179 490187 490191 488195 484200 480203 472208
      463213 458215 454215 444216 439218 436221 434224 433228
      437231 446227 455225 456227 454231 450233 445235 441240
      442248 443250 446251 449249 455249 464248 470249 475254
      482261 487265 489270 495281 498286 502287 505287 509285
      513280 518268 520262 521253 516240 512229 505218 500208
      500204 503202 506202 510204 514210 516216 520218 526222
      530221 536212
 0.01 487231 487228 487227 485226 485225 484224 482224 481223
      479223 477224 476225 477226 478228 479228 480229 481231
      481232 483233 484234 486233 487231
 0.01 492987 489977 489972 487967 484954 483949 481949 475957
      472967 472979 473987 473994 476004 478008 482010 485007
      487005 491995 492987
 0.01 483854 484845 483834 482826 477820 475818 473819 471821
      470825 467833 465841 463849 461857 459864 457869 452882
      449888 449901 448908 444913 440918 436925 430935 424941
      417944 406950 400953 395957 391968 387984 383988 383992
      385995 385999 387002 386006 385007 364025 355033 345041
      341044 336046 330049 325053 325057 332058 335058 338056
      344061 343068 342071 336074 323078 308077 295075 288072
      280071 269066 258061 248054 241055 235059 234065 238070
      258087 262090 264093 267093 281096 288097 292101 301110
      304112 307113 314114 329112 343111 352102 356098 358096
      359092 357087 356083 356078 356074 358071 360069 363069
      368074 370080 377094 389092 392098 393100 392102 390104
      385109 380112 378117 381121 385122 390118 400113 405108
      408102 407100 403099 399097 398094 400091 401085 403082
      406081 411078 415072 417066 414059 411054 405053 390052
      385049 380045 378042 381039 386034 389032 393032 397025
      401011 404004 409999 411997 414996 420994 426993 429990
      438979 441975 447971 450967 454959 456942 459932 459922
      459916 461913 462910 465908 472897 477884 479877 481869
      483854
 0.01 417858 413836 412830 410826 403827 402815 398805 396802
      396799 399791 397787 393785 387787 384789 379796 372800
      366806 361813 355819 351825 346831 343840 347845 352844
      354841 356838 357833 362825 367820 373815 380809 383809
      385815 383825 383836 384845 381847 379852 376859 375864
      375869 377872 376876 374881 373886 374890 379891 382890
      386889 403884 411880 413877 414872 417858
 0.01 329785 328777 321777 315779 312783 305794 303800 300805
      292806 285806 275801 270798 263797 255798 250802 250808
      253814 257818 259825 262830 261837 262845 265850 270853
      276855 283855 290856 295858 301859 306857 309852 313838
      314831 316824 321813 324808 325801 329785
 0.01 231997 239004 250010 256010 261008 266005 270001 286993
      292989 296985 299981 303975 310966 313961 317956 322946
      320940 316935 312932 305930 301926 295924 290922 286922
      284924 281929 274931 266939 262943 258943 255945 243949
      237957 232970 231981
 0.25 532208 533200 531196 525187 522178 517170 514167 509166
      504165 501167 499171 497177 499183 502186 509191 516196
      519200 521205 523208 526209 530210 532208
 0.25 516262 516255 515248 511236 499219 494210 489207 485207
      480209 475211 472215 471219 475219 481221 487223 491225
      495236 500245 502251 502254 500255 496252 493246 490242
      486242 485245 485249 486256 491266 497275 499280 501282
      504282 508280 510275 514267 516262
 0.25 480244 480240 479236 478233 476232 474232 472233 469235
      467236 464235 463237 465239 468240 471242 474244 476245
      478245 480244
 0.25 428961 428959 428957 426958 424959 423961 422964 421966
      423967 424967 425966 426965 427964 428962 428961
 0.25 318800 317796 313797 308801 304806 299811 287816 283821
      279825 273829 270835 271839 273842 278846 283848 289850
      293850 296849 301844 306833 308825 311820 316806 318800
 0.25 292952 293945 291941 287941 283943 277948 271954 265959
      261966 259972 263975 268975 272974 277972 280970 286964
      290958 292952
 0.25 278813 277809 276807 272806 271805 267805 263806 261807
      260809 261811 263813 266814 268815 271815 275815 278813
 0.25 253000 251996 249995 247994 244992 242991 238991 237992
      236995 236998 238000 242001 245001 249001 253000
 0.50 513260 513253 511247 509238 506234 501230 497226 495227
      495231 496236 500243 503247 505255 506261 509263 511263
      513260
 0.50 505276 505268 502264 498260 494254 491248 489246 488249
      490257 492263 495268 498273 501279 505279 505276
 0.50 517185 517180 516177 514174 512171 510170 507169 506169
      503171 502176 503179 504182 507184 509186 512187 515187
      517185
 0.50 491216 491214 489212 487211 486210 484210 482211 481211
      479212 478213 478215 478216 480218 481219 483220 485220
      486220 488219 489219 490218 491216
 0.50 307820 307814 305812 297816 290820 283825 275830 273834
      275839 281844 290847 295845 298842 302834 305826 307820
 1.00 300832 300825 296824 291825 286827 282829 278832 279834
      282837 286839 290840 295838 298836 300832 300832
 1.50 296834 297832 296830 295829 293829 291830 291831 290833
      291835 293835 295835 296834

$$




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