Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 230700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT THU MAR 23 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 23/1200 UTC THRU MAR 24/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


S-CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES OUT TO THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES

SRN STREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEPARATION...STEADY
PROGRESSION...AND GRADUAL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT SHOWN IN MOST
GUIDANCE SHOULD SUPPORT A WIDE SWATH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
TERRAIN ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE THE S-CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN/ROCKIES. FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW TRACK SHOULD COMBINE WITH
UPSLOPE TERRAIN LIFT AND WRAPPED MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM THE WPC WINTER WEATHER DESK
FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL DETAILS ACROSS THIS AREA.
SYSTEM PROGRESSION AND PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS/FRONTOGENESIS THU INTO
FRI WILL BRING INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND SOME INSTABILITY WITH
HEIGHT FALLS UP THRU THE PLAINS AND FAVORABLE WAA PCPN DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSE
SUPPORT.

FLORIDA

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND POST FRONTAL EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE
PRECIP TOTALS IN A PATTERN THAT MAY FAVOR MAX CONVERGENCE IN
VICINITY OF WEST PALM BEACH.


PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

GUIDANCE REAONABLY AGREES THAT AN ENERGETIC ERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET SWING TOWARD THE PAC NW/NRN
CA COAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF DAY 1/FRI MORNING. SWRLY LOW
LEVEL JET FLOW UPWARDS TO 50+ KTS WILL ENHANCE FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE/LIFT AND ASSOCIATED LEAD THETAE ADVECTION PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION WITH BEST POTENTIAL OVER WINDWARD COASTAL
RANGES. EXPECT ENHANCED ACTIVITY TO BE FUELED BY A PLUME OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.25" OR MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL CENTERED INTO NWRN CA LATTER PERIOD THAT
COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHY COULD PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF PCPN.

SCHICHTEL


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 490613 490617 488620 479622 474624 466628 462634 458640
      454648 450655 445659 443657 442652 445645 448638 450630
      452627
 0.01 536209 537203 536199 533192 525173 521165 515160 509156
      502154 498153 495151 492145 487136 482139 485146 491152
      494154 496158 498159 498162 495164 492164 488162 485160
      477157 472155 471160 473163 477165 477168 475171 472170
      466172 460175 448180 441183 437184 434188 433191 434196
      433203 431209 427214 422218 419220 415219 407215 400211
      390208 386207 387211 389214 389219 386220 382220 377222
      371226 366230 360235 357239 356245 354257 356265 360270
      366273 374278 381280 390281 397280 405281 412279 424274
      435268 443266 451270 465278 472283 477289 488300 491303
      496305 502302 511288 514286 516281 518273 519267 520261
      520250 520243 519238 515229 511223 508218 508212 510207
      512205 516206 523209 528213 532214 534212 536209
 0.01 524889 523885 521881 517876 511872 506869 501868 503862
      505852 506846 505843 501837 498834 495837 491841 488841
      488835 489832 489826 488814 488807 486804 481784 473770
      469771 466768 461764 455759 449753 437746 432754 427760
      415769 408780 404785 402792 407828 409850 412853 413860
      414866 415870 423884 425888 425893 422900 420902 420907
      416914 408914 403910 399908 396908 390909 387913 385918
      385926 385933 387937 391945 396952 400959 401962 400965
      399969 397977 394985 390988 382992 374994 367996 363995
      361992 360987 359983 356977 350973 347971 343971 334971
      326973 318976 310981 301990 297996 296004 300010 303011
      306012 306014 302015 301019 304025 308030 310032 314033
      323033 331032 337032 341031 351032 358029 368029 370030
      368032 363036 357039 353040 349041 343044 342046 351047
      356047 355051 354054 350057 344058 340059 339063 341065
      343065 349066 352071 354073 354077 350079 345080 341078
      342083 339084 333086 321093 316097 313104 310114 316119
      330117 333116 337117 342121 344126 348128 357130 362132
      365136 364142 365146 371150 380151 387153 391160 398162
      402158 405154 406148 404140 411127 416121 421118 440116
      448114 451113 453110 455096 458088 460085 461079 462075
      464072 467068 466065 465059 470041 474024 478003 480991
      483981 486957 492911 499909 502907 506906 511905 515905
      520903 522898 524889
 0.01 464991 465987 464982 462976 459972 455974 450984 445995
      441005 438011 437019 437027 439030 442030 449022 455015
      458011 460005 463993 464991
 0.01 342177 343171 341168 336166 330164 327162 323163 323168
      326171 331172 335171 339172 341177 342177
 0.01 321782 320773 318767 316763 312757 308756 304757 299757
      296756 288751 283747 278740 273736 269734 265734 257733
      249735 242740 238747 234762 231769 229777 227795 228805
      229811 230815 232820 236826 240826 243825 246821 250820
      256824 263826 270829 279830 284831 287831 289829 287828
      283828 280825 278821 280816 285816 288816 297816 299813
      299808 299805 304806 311805 316800 319796 321791 320785
      321782
 0.25 513274 514267 515259 514252 513247 509236 505228 501220
      498215 493212 487206 482206 479208 472211 463214 458213
      454215 447217 440220 431224 428228 424229 415228 407224
      403226 400229 392231 382229 378240 372249 371253 373257
      381263 389268 393270 397271 406271 414268 429262 437260
      446259 455259 459259 465261 472265 480272 484281 491289
      494291 498290 505287 510281 513274
 0.25 490232 490227 489224 488222 485220 483219 481219 478218
      475219 473220 471223 472226 475228 478229 481231 483233
      486235 489234 490232
 0.25 480907 481902 481895 479887 477878 476873 474871 469866
      467859 461847 456840 454840 453843 451850 452857 452875
      456881 457891 457902 457907 458911 462911 466912 470912
      471915 474916 477915 480907 480907
 0.25 455081 456075 455069 454065 454058 457045 455041 452043
      442055 436061 433059 432056 429049 423043 422037 422030
      425019 427009 431000 435993 438986 442968 446957 450949
      454940 455932 456925 455920 453911 448892 444881 440875
      441878 439883 438892 437904 435914 432921 429929 423951
      420953 415953 413956 412961 410971 410975 411980 411986
      410989 405996 401005 397015 393023 387027 380031 375033
      369037 367041 367046 367054 370057 373057 380060 383063
      379065 373062 366061 364063 365065 365071 367074 370083
      371087 373088 378089 386088 395087 399087 402086 406091
      404102 400109 393113 387118 385124 388125 395122 401120
      408119 415117 418114 418113 414110 413107 414104 420098
      424096 427099 429102 434104 440101 442097 442091 442086
      444083 447082 453083 455081
 0.25 445822 443815 440809 436805 431802 425801 420804 417810
      417814 418818 423819 430819 434821 439823 443823 445822
 0.25 422069 423067 424065 424063 423060 422060 421060 420062
      419064 418067 417069 417071 419073 420073 421072 422070
      422069
 0.25 417078 417076 416076 415075 413075 411075 410075 411077
      411078 412080 413080 415079 416079 417078
 0.25 370012 367010 363009 358009 353009 349009 344011 340012
      337015 341017 347017 352017 358018 363017 367016 370012
      370012
 0.25 349112 351106 351099 352093 350088 346087 344089 341093
      339098 340102 341107 343111 345114 348115 349112 349112
 0.25 287808 287804 286802 283798 277795 272793 265792 260792
      249796 245801 245806 247812 253813 261819 264819 263815
      260811 254808 253806 256804 259804 262805 267808 273809
      280808 287808
 0.50 507277 509271 510264 511255 511249 508238 504231 501223
      498219 494216 490218 491224 493235 493238 488238 484239
      481236 478232 473231 466231 459232 450233 443236 440237
      435236 415230 410229 406229 404233 402235 394236 388235
      385237 382249 382255 385258 392262 400265 409265 416263
      423260 430255 437254 445254 462254 469255 475260 482267
      488275 494281 499284 502284 505282 507277
 0.50 453076 451071 449063 447062 444062 440065 436069 431073
      430075 432078 436078 439073 444076 449079 452078 453076
 0.50 447940 446926 446915 445908 443909 441911 440917 437930
      434942 432950 430956 424963 421978 420983 418989 412999
      408003 405007 400018 399024 398030 391031 386033 377039
      373042 374047 381053 384056 388056 391059 394066 393070
      391072 385071 382069 378069 375066 371064 369066 371071
      374075 376082 381081 384076 388077 391080 397080 401076
      400070 397069 398065 400061 403060 408061 410063 412065
      415063 414060 411058 412054 412049 411047 407044 405040
      403033 416019 419014 422009 423003 426997 431990 434983
      436977 443952 446945 447940
 0.50 433097 433095 433094 432092 431091 430089 430088 428089
      427091 428094 429096 431097 432097 433097
 0.50 413113 410111 409108 409103 410098 408097 407100 406102
      404107 403110 401112 401115 405116 408115 411115 413113
 0.50 400115 399114 397115 399115 400115
 0.50 347103 347101 348099 347096 345095 344096 344098 344100
      344103 345104 346103 347103
 0.50 283804 281802 279800 276799 274798 271797 268797 264797
      261799 263800 266802 269803 270804 273805 276805 280805
      283804
 1.00 503273 504268 504263 501258 497252 494248 490244 485245
      485250 487256 490263 493268 497273 501275 503273
 1.00 474242 473240 472239 470241 470242 469243 469244 471244
      472244 473243 474242
 1.00 426242 424238 421236 413234 409237 406240 397241 390241
      387245 388250 391253 395256 405259 410259 414258 420252
      425244 426242
 1.00 403049 401046 399045 397044 396044 393045 391048 390050
      392052 393053 395055 399056 400053 402051 403049
 1.50 502267 501264 499261 498259 496257 494254 492252 491255
      492258 493261 495264 497267 498269 501269 502267
 1.50 423241 419238 414238 410240 405243 399243 394244 394249
      395251 402253 406254 409254 413252 418248 421243 423241

$$





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