Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 120659
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 12/1200 UTC THRU JUL 13/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

...22Z UPDATES...

INCREASED THE PREVIOUS QPF A BIT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ROCKIES AND
THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF WY/CO AS CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE AIRMASS WAS PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AOA
2000 J PER KG AND BLENDED TPW VALUES WERE INCREASING OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS.  THINK CONVECTION WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT
MOVES OUT OVER THE PLAINS.  THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE IN
AGREEMENT THAT PARTS OF NEBRASKA WILL BE IN THE BEST POSITION FOR
MDT TO HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE TROF FROM THE WEST
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET.

ALSO INCREASED AMOUNTS FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO/EASTERN AZ INTO
UT/NV AND PARTS OF ID WHERE BLENDED TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
THAT SUFFICENT MOISTURE WAS STILL IN PLAY AND AVAILABLE TO ANY
STORMS WHICH INITIATE OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN.  IN
ADDITION...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY SLOW. ON THE OTHER
HAND...TEMP AND DEWPOINT SPREADS WERE FAIRLY LARGE IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST NV.  THUS THE MEAN AREAL AVERAGE RAFL AMOUNTS WERE KEPT
LOW BUT CERTAINLY ISOLATED SPOTS COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLY MORE.

IN THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER MIDWEST...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...SOUTHEAST...

A COLD FRONT SLICING INTO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WILL MAKE VERY
LITTLE PROGRESS... AS THE FEATURE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND
LIKELY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER... MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO CARRY AN SHEAR AXIS OF VORTICITY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE NERN GULF COAST INTO SAT. THE COMBINATION
OF THE WEAK FORCING AND STEERING WITH POOLING OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE... PWS AOA 2 TO 2.25 INCHES... SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PEAK OF DAYTIME HEATING FROM EARLY AFTN TO LATE EVENING THOUGH A
FEW SPOTS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS. NO
LARGE SCALE AREAL AMOUNTS OR ORGANIZATION IS ANTICIPATED BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THE MOST LIKELY AXIS
FROM COASTAL SC TO SRN GA/NRN FL TO SRN MS/LA... WHILE ENHANCED
SEA BREEZE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
OVERALL WPC FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE OF THE DATA ON QPF AMOUNTS WITH
UP TO AN INCH... BUT 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SLOWER MOVING STORMS.

...CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY AND PARTS OF
UPPER MIDWEST...

A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH... VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
WILL EJECT OUT OF NRN CO/SERN WY AND TRACK QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS
AND THE RESULTANT WILL BE AN AXIS OF CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT DIGGING
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF
A BUILDING MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DRY AIR
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL SETUP A VERY NARROW ZONE OF INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE POOLING. THE GUIDANCE... ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND
ECMWF... CAPTURE THIS SCENARIO AND DEPICT THE DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE
TRANSITIONING VERY FAST DOWNSTREAM. THE ACTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP
LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS SERN WY/NERN CO AS DEVELOPING CONVECTION
POSSIBLY MERGES INTO A CLUSTER AND ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM. THE COMPLEX
WILL THEN PROGRESS ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL NE AND SRN SD WITH SOME
MOISTURE BACKING NWWRD TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NWRN SD/SWRN
ND. MEANWHILE... JUST AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT... ENOUGH OF
A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL SWRLY JET COULD YIELD SOME STORM
ACTIVITY/HEAVY RAIN ACROSS IA INTO NORTH CENTRAL IL. BY
MORNING/MIDDAY SAT INTO THE AFTN HRS... THE SMALL SCALE SYSTEM
WILL MERGE WITH THE WESTERLIES AND FRONT FOR POSSIBLY MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ACROSS IA/WI/MI INTO NRN/CENTRAL
IL/IN... THOUGH THIS LATTER PERIOD HAS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING BACK SOUTH AND WEST FROM THE COMPLEX COULD
ALSO SPIKE AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS ERN CO... ESPECIALLY IN NERN CO. OVERALL WPC STAYED VERY
CLOSELY TO A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND INTERNAL PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS AND A LIKELY WEST TO EAST
NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 13/12Z
 0.01 539890 539882 536876 533872 530870 522870 517871 514874
      506882 501888 495896 490906 483927 480937 477949 477967
      477975 479980 482990 484992 490995 490001 493008 496018
      504037 512058 515067 518073 521077 525079 528076 533066
      535055 536047 536043 535040 535021 535013 534007 531981
      531972 530962 531946 530939 528933 523941 521941 521931
      525923 530914 535904 537897 539890
 0.01 499786 492768 490762 489754 488747 486742 474732 472730
      470732 466737 448763 442769 435775 429780 425783 423787
      416804 410812 406819 402825 399833 393849 389858 387861
      386867 383876 380883 379887 376891 371898 365903 362907
      358910 359914 366912 373907 382904 390900 395899 396904
      393922 385957 380980 378989 374999 369017 365028 364034
      362037 353048 348055 343060 338067 337070 333070 328064
      325060 325055 316039 315034 314031 308027 303027 298025
      296023 293023 287029 279034 273038 266041 260044 257045
      254044 245043 238043 234043 229051 227059 229067 231070
      235073 245080 258090 260094 262099 265108 267114 271115
      274117 281122 288125 291124 296126 298126 301125 306119
      310115 323107 326109 330114 340116 346110 349102 354095
      358093 360092 361089 367085 375084 379084 382086 385088
      389089 394101 395105 393107 391109 386113 386117 388117
      394117 396115 400112 404113 407115 410115 418117 422115
      426116 434121 436134 439143 440146 442145 449144 455142
      458140 461136 462132 463126 464119 463112 460104 457095
      456090 452089 445086 440081 439078 444079 452081 454081
      454075 454068 452061 451057 452050 456051 458053 461052
      464048 465035 465022 466017 464014 463010 456994 458982
      457976 456971 453952 451940 453929 455918 458905 459896
      461887 465878 467870 472863 477855 486839 491820 494813
      496804 498792 499786
 0.01 457719 456714 453711 449711 446714 444718 443723 442728
      444730 448732 453731 456728 457722 457719
 0.01 447749 445740 444737 440737 439734 437729 434729 432732
      424740 420745 418752 398768 395770 393771 391769 388772
      386776 381781 378787 375794 372800 367806 362814 357819
      353824 349828 347833 344839 344848 340854 339857 335856
      333856 331852 332846 335831 337821 339815 345805 348800
      352794 356780 365773 366771 364768 359765 348767 350759
      352753 357739 357731 356727 354725 350725 347727 344732
      335754 331756 329755 324754 320756 316761 314766 311773
      307778 300789 291796 289802 283801 270799 263799 256799
      249800 246803 242808 240813 238828 236836 238843 241847
      245845 255838 265832 272830 277831 280833 279837 279840
      283840 284844 290847 292855 289860 281872 275881 273886
      271894 266920 272931 277942 288948 293948 298948 305947
      310946 316943 321940 326937 330934 331924 337921 339919
      338916 335909 330908 326906 321902 317892 316889 318886
      322881 325877 330874 333872 337871 341869 350861 354850
      359835 361829 363826 365825 375815 376811 379809 383804
      390795 394790 399787 412784 418781 424777 427774 430774
      433768 440757 443751 447749
 0.01 422107 422100 422095 421090 419086 417081 417077 415076
      413082 412089 412096 412103 413108 417111 421109 422107
 0.01 406093 407089 407084 406080 404081 401083 399085 398087
      396090 394094 396096 397099 397103 400105 401102 402099
      404095 406093
 0.01 335863 333861 331861 330862 328863 328865 328866 327868
      327870 328872 330870 330869 331867 332867 333865 335863
 0.01 324078 325075 324073 320074 315073 313069 311066 312062
      314058 316055 314052 311050 305050 302053 300057 299063
      297067 297073 300077 306083 313087 318086 321084 324078
 0.01 296895 296893 295891 294890 293891 293892 291893 291894
      290895 290897 291899 293897 295896 296895
 0.25 526057 526055 524052 523049 523048 522046 521045 520044
      520042 519043 519046 520048 520049 521052 522054 524057
      525058 526057
 0.25 521015 522002 523989 522976 518970 515960 514949 513939
      514929 513918 510916 506918 502925 499933 497942 496948
      497954 505966 507975 511983 512994 514004 517012 519015
      521015
 0.25 492797 492791 491786 489782 487779 482778 478772 472770
      469771 466774 464780 461782 457781 452779 447780 444782
      437792 419811 416818 413826 409840 405856 403862 401865
      396866 391871 388878 385885 388887 394886 399886 401888
      402892 403896 403907 397942 395950 396959 400965 403963
      404966 402974 401984 402987 406987 409982 415969 417968
      418971 417981 417985 420985 423984 428985 433985 439988
      444993 448000 452005 455005 453996 450988 449977 447969
      445953 444943 444930 445921 447911 451896 457882 457873
      457871 454869 454865 456862 462857 470848 476837 485824
      490811 491804 492797
 0.25 460028 460025 460023 459021 459020 458018 456020 457022
      457025 457027 458027 459030 460028
 0.25 450100 450096 446095 445094 442091 440089 437089 435091
      433095 434097 438099 441101 443102 446103 448102 450100
 0.25 446072 445070 443069 441068 440069 441072 442072 443072
      445073 446072
 0.25 432754 431752 429752 428754 427755 426756 426758 427760
      428758 429757 430756 431755 432754
 0.25 427053 428051 429049 429046 427044 426044 425044 424046
      424048 423048 422051 422053 423055 423056 425056 426056
      427055 427053
 0.25 415769 414768 412767 410768 408770 407773 409775 411774
      412773 414772 414771 415769
 0.25 417052 406040 402033 396028 392021 388014 386013 383015
      381019 378026 372031 367038 365048 363051 360054 359057
      363058 362063 359065 359068 362069 365070 373070 376072
      379071 384065 389063 392062 400061 408063 411063 414059
      417052
 0.25 342096 343089 344086 343084 339082 336080 330079 328081
      330084 333088 335093 336097 338100 341098 342096
 0.25 331783 329780 326778 324775 321776 316779 312786 309793
      305798 302801 301804 304811 295815 291816 288815 286812
      282811 275809 269806 262805 256805 253808 252813 253816
      256818 268823 273823 278822 283823 285825 290828 290833
      291839 295845 298852 303867 305871 307874 310873 310869
      308850 308845 310841 314836 318830 322823 321814 320811
      322808 325802 328795 331783
 0.25 310043 310041 310039 309038 308037 306036 304036 302037
      302038 301040 302042 304044 306044 307045 309043 310043
 0.25 302114 302102 299092 297087 295084 287079 280073 278069
      280066 280062 276060 271058 268058 258061 250059 242054
      237056 236058 237061 243067 250073 254075 257078 262084
      275098 287111 295116 300116 302114
 0.25 309913 308908 304907 299906 295910 295914 296918 298922
      301926 304928 308928 307922 305918 308915 309913
 0.50 489798 489792 488790 482791 479787 475783 473781 470783
      467787 466789 462791 457789 452787 445790 437797 427804
      424808 421814 414842 411854 406866 401870 397870 395872
      393875 394879 399881 402883 403886 406892 406910 403926
      402930 403935 405935 410923 412917 413924 414931 416939
      418946 421951 423957 423964 421978 426977 430976 434977
      438980 443982 441949 442942 442932 440924 440918 441905
      443897 442894 439893 437891 437887 437878 442867 447856
      453845 457840 459831 461826 466824 486811 488804 489798
 0.50 408056 408051 404047 399041 393035 384032 375035 372037
      370041 369048 370055 372058 375060 384059 388057 393058
      403058 408056
 0.50 300112 299107 297103 295096 292090 288084 282082 275081
      271080 270083 274087 278092 283097 286106 291110 298113
      300112
 0.50 301834 300833 299833 297834 299835 300834 301834
 0.50 281817 282815 280813 279812 277813 276813 275815 275816
      275818 277818 279818 281817 281817
 0.50 270818 269816 268814 266813 265813 264812 262811 260810
      258810 256811 256812 255814 257815 259816 260817 261817
      263818 264819 266819 268819 270818
 1.00 453806 451803 447802 441804 434807 429812 428816 430820
      432822 436822 435829 431835 425841 421846 418855 415861
      414865 413871 412880 413889 415898 416904 419908 421916
      425933 427943 427954 427967 428970 431971 434969 436965
      437956 438945 438939 436935 433933 430929 429921 429909
      430900 431889 431878 435861 436850 436845 437841 441834
      444827 445824 445818 443815 443812 447809 453806
 1.00 394052 395050 395048 394046 394045 392043 390043 389043
      388045 387047 388050 390052 392053 393053 394052
 1.00 383054 384051 384049 384047 384045 383043 382042 380040
      378040 376040 375042 374042 373044 373046 373048 374050
      374051 376053 377054 379055 381056 383054 383054
 1.50 435961 436957 436952 436947 435942 433940 431943 430947
      430952 430954 429959 429964 430966 431969 433968 434964
      435961
 1.50 428867 429861 427855 425855 422858 420860 419865 420877
      419886 420898 421901 424903 426901 427897 428891 427886
      425878 426871 428867
 1.50 380051 381049 380047 379047 378047 377046 376046 376047
      377049 377051 379052 380051
 2.00 435952 435949 435947 434945 433944 433945 432947 431949
      431952 431954 431957 431959 431961 432961 433963 433961
      433959 434957 435954 435953 435952

$$





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