000
FXUS04 KWBC 171756
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
156 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 18/0000 UTC THRU JUN 19/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

CNTL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EWD INTO THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS..SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLC REGIONS...

UNSETTLED CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THIS REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION EXPECTED IN RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AT THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RATHER BROAD UPR TROF
DOMINATING THE ERN THIRD OF THE LOWER 48 STATES.  THE MAIN FORCING
MECHANISM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT
THAT WILL TRACK ESEWD EARLY IN THE PD BEFORE DURING MORE ENEWD
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE PD IN RESPONSE TO STGR UPSTREAM
IMPULSE DRIVING SEWD THRU THE MIDWEST.  THE 00Z EC DID NOT HANDLE
THIS FEATURE VERY WELL..HOWEVER THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS SEEM TO BEING
DOING A BIT BETTER.  WHILE THIS MAY BE THE CASE WITH THE GFS..IT
HAS TRENDED A LOT FARTHER NORTH WITH ITS QPF LATE IN THE PD THRU
THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLC REGION AND AT LEAST PARTIALLY APPEARS TO BE
FEEDBACK CONTAMINATED WITH ORGANIZED PCPN IT DVLPS WITH THE
INITIAL VORT IT TRACKS ACRS THE TN VALLEY.  AS A RESULT..HAVE
TONED DOWN GFS AMOUNTS WITH THIS FEATURE..AND LEANED A BIT CLOSER
TO THE 12Z UKMET WHICH IS NOT QUITE AS FAR NORTH.  ELSEWHERE ACRS
THE REGION..EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO FIRE WITH FAVORABLE AFTN
HEATING ESPECIALLY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BNDRIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION AS WELL AS WITH DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SRN/CNTL HI
PLAINS TONIGHT.  STORMS OVER THE HI PLAINS MAY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AS THEY DROP SEWD TO THE EAST OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS INTO
FAVORABLY MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW.  GIVEN LARGE MODEL SPREAD WITH
QPF AND MESOSCALE FORCING LIKELY TO BE DOMINANT FORCING
MECHANISM...CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW IN PCPN DETAILS THOUGH
WITH HIGH PWS OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES IN PLACE..WIDESPREAD .50 TO 1
INCH PLUS AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLD HIER AMOUNTS.  USED A
BLEND OF LATEST GFS/UKMET AND SREF MEAN FOR QPF MOST AREAS.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

NO SIGNIFICANT MODELS DIFFERENCES WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THE
STRONG NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS PERIOD.  THE DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF GENL LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS OF WA STATE AND OR INTO NRN WA AND EXTREME NRN ID/NW MT.

NORTHERN TIER FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACRS THIS REGION AHEAD OF WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD ACRS THE NE/ERN GT LAKES REGION AND WEAK
S/WV DROPPING SEWD ACRS THE MIDWEST REGION ON TUES.  PWS ARE NOT
VERY HIGH ACRS THIS REGION..THOUGH IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE SRN
NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE BETTER UPR JET DYNAMICS MAY COME INTO PLAY
LATE ON TUES.   OVERALL MAINTAINED MAINLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS MOST
AREAS WITH SOME .25 TO .50 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND SWD INTO NRN NJ WHERE MORE FAVORABLE MSTR AND DYNAMICS
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF FRONT.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 19/00Z
 0.01 510641 498626 490622 486621 483624 453652 442663 440667
      438675 436677 433676 429675 425675 421678 414684 412688
      406695 400699 389708 385713 382716 381720 378722 374725
      369727 365727 349732 340738 337745 334749 332754 328757
      326757 315773 310782 308787 307793 306839 308846 307849
      307859 306877 304918 304930 307934 309939 312943 312950
      310959 304004 305011 303016 300021 290034 280047 280051
      282055 288059 321046 326043 333043 340044 343047 346052
      349058 352062 358062 364058 367055 372055 380058 391058
      403058 416059 423062 428063 432067 435072 436076 435088
      438094 440097 445101 451102 453101 453096 453092 451089
      450084 448080 450076 451070 453061 454056 454047 449026
      447019 444015 439009 436007 431008 428008 427005 428001
      430993 430988 427983 426977 423974 422970 418971 413972
      411976 409981 403981 398981 394983 388985 384988 381992
      377996 375998 372998 367996 360990 355982 353974 348965
      350956 352952 353950 356950 365952 373946 378938 382933
      385929 387924 388920 391913 391907 393902 396899 399900
      401905 405908 408911 408915 416923 420927 424930 432935
      435944 440954 442957 444963 449976 453988 455993 458996
      461000 464001 471000 473992 474989 474983 472976 467963
      463957 461948 460941 458936 456930 454926 451921 447918
      438912 433911 431909 429903 427897 424888 420877 416864
      413850 411842 412836 417833 424830 429828 433825 435819
      436812 437806 438800 443788 447774 447770 448765 449758
      448748 447740 447733 447721 443709 440686 440680 444681
      447683 450682 453682 457681 461683 464685 465688 465696
      463710 463716 465723 469732 473734 483733 489731 493730
      497727 503723 513719 517717 520714 523707 523685 520678
      520670 517661
 0.01 536186 535168 531152 526131 519118 516114 509113 502112
      496113 490114 481114 473113 464113 461117 459125 460132
      462140 466145 474148 475152 475158 474164 472171 465178
      454184 449187 443193 439197 436205 435209 437207 445199
      455189 468184 468188 467191 463195 459198 456201 454201
      453205 450208 448217 446220 442221 440223 436223 432227
      427228 423230 422234 418235 412238 412243 413252 418257
      424259 428259 435260 441258 452255 460256 467256 471259
      475264 479268 483274 487279 495283 498286 503288 507280
      509278 511274 511268 512263 515257 514249 512241 509232
      511227 513223 515219 527205 531200 532196 536186
 0.01 290815 288812 284809 277805 270804 262801 259800 254801
      252802 250806 249809 251813 258817 265819 273822 280824
      285823 289819 290815
 0.25 490661 490656 487653 486652 483651 482651 479653 477656
      477657 477662 479665 482667 482668 485668 488666 490662
      490661
 0.25 521182 523177 523172 522163 520155 517148 512142 507138
      500139 498141 497145 497153 498163 495170 492176 483187
      482191 483196 486198 490199 494198 500200 505203 510202
      515199 517196 519191 521182
 0.25 489252 488247 484242 481240 478234 476232 473232 470232
      464233 462233 463238 466242 468244 474248 479251 484254
      487255 489252
 0.25 425699 422699 419701 417705 415716 411725 408733 404744
      403749 403753 404756 410757 414753 419747 426739 427735
      429729 428719 426704 425699
 0.25 453239 452236 449235 446236 445236 443238 441239 442243
      445243 448243 450242 451240 453239
 0.25 389769 389763 387758 381753 376748 368745 360743 354745
      346751 339759 331772 326787 324796 324808 322826 321841
      321859 319882 316900 314915 315921 316927 318937 319949
      320957 320960 319965 315973 316994 316003 317010 322019
      328027 332031 341037 353043 361044 367043 390039 406031
      408028 406023 399021 392020 382020 370021 363019 354015
      351012 348006 335976 331966 332957 334946 337939 345927
      351920 357916 365911 367906 370901 373891 374883 378866
      382858 386852 391843 392838 392832 391826 389820 386812
      386800 386790 389769
 0.25 405004 406000 405996 404995 401993 398993 397993 395994
      392995 390996 387998 386998 384001 383002 382006 384010
      385010 388011 391011 393011 396010 399009 401008 402008
      405005 405004
 0.50 512185 514180 513176 510175 507177 506178 504183 506187
      507188 508189 509188 512185 512185
 0.50 378783 377776 374769 367761 364760 362763 359770 360776
      359782 356791 353796 351799 348798 346791 346785 346778
      347772 351767 353763 351759 347760 344766 344772 342777
      340783 337788 336792 333803 332816 332821 333824 335825
      343825 336832 333838 331845 328855 326877 323890 320902
      318911 318918 319925 323941 326945 328941 336923 341912
      345908 352908 355908 361907 364904 367898 372872 372861
      377849 379843 381835 381824 381813 380802 378783
 0.50 352030 351026 348023 342015 339004 336994 332984 328978
      323976 320981 320993 320006 324015 329023 335028 343033
      348033 352030
 1.00 374819 372813 370807 365812 362821 361828 361836 362843
      363847 362852 364854 369848 372843 373840 373835 373827
      374819
 1.00 365868 364865 360860 358856 353855 348857 343861 338868
      337872 336877 335881 336885 342882 348891 356894 361894
      363890 365883 365879 365868

$$