Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 281853
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 PM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 29/0000 UTC THRU MAR 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES---CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS

THE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WILL BE EJECTING EASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT---TAKING
A MORE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD TURN WEDNESDAY INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION.  HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN A REGION OF STRONG UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LESS CONFIDENCE DAY 1 WITH SOME OF THE DETAILS OF THE SHORTER TERM
QPF AMOUNTS.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY SO WITH THE CONVECTIVE MAX
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT
LOCATION OVER WEST TX AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS NOT BEEN GREAT---WITH
THE FASTER HI RES MODELS FROM 0000 UTC SLOWING IN THE 1200 UTC
RUNS.  THIS SLOWING TREND IS NOW IN LINE WITH MUCH OF THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER--GIVEN TYPICAL ISSUES THAT CAN
DEVELOP WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVING CONVECTION---CONFIDENCE ON THESE
DETAILS REMAINS LOW.  CONSENSUS IS FOR WEAKENING OF THE WELL
DEFINED CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AROUND
1200 UTC---BUT RE-IGNITING TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD
1800-0000 UTC.  TO THE NORTH OF THE WELL DEFINED CONVECTION---AN
ORGANIZED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND WILL STRETCH FROM
EASTERN COLORADO---TX/OK PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN TO CENTRAL
KS---SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ROCKIES---NOT MAKING MUCH
EASTWARD PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

A SERIES OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DAY 1.  THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IN AN AXIS
OF PW VALUES 2 TO 2.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS LIKELY FROM THE WASHINGTON/NORTHERN OREGON
CASCADES---WESTWARD TO THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST RANGES.
INLAND---MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS LIKELY FROM NORTHEAST
OREGON---NORTHERN ID---NORTHEAST WASHINGTON INTO NORTHWEST MT.

COASTAL NEW ENGLAND

THE WEAKENING CLOSED LOW MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND PASSING WELL
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.  A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROF MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN QB INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL HELP DEEPEN THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE MOVING HEIGHT
FALLS---WITH THIS LOW MOVING TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA/NEW FOUNDLAND
WEDNESDAY AS IT DEEPENS RAPIDLY.  PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAKENING CLOSED LOW WILL BE AFFECTING COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY.  MODEL CONSENSUS
IS FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS FROM SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND INTO
DOWN EAST MAINE.  ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAPID DEEPENING
PHASE OF THIS LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEEPENING
SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHERN NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 487614 498641 500648 500656 499672 498678 495685 494687
      490688 487693 485701 482707 480713 477717 470719 464721
      460726 457731 453745 451750 447756 440765 437771 436777
      434782 431786 427781 426772 424767 427760 432749 434744
      437740 441735 444732 441731 436734 433735 431733 428731
      426734 423739 420743 418746 414747 409745 405743 401739
      397734 395732 391732 385733 374741 366748 356756 349763
      343766 339766 333763 331757 336747 343737 350730 357719
      365710 369699 372687 376673 379669 381663 381656 382648
 0.01 538207 538202 538197 536188 534182 530175 526167 522162
      514152 495132 489128 482125 478124 470124 465124 461124
      460127 455130 451135 449139 445140 439136 436137 435141
      433143 433147 432157 436163 439171 440174 439178 433193
      432202 429208 423203 421201 419203 419219 415224 410230
      405233 402240 402249 404256 406264 411268 417271 424270
      433263 436261 438263 439272 440281 441287 443297 444300
      447303 452305 458303 463299 467293 473279 476272 477268
      479266 489278 493284 495287 499288 505288 509285 514278
      518270 520262 521256 521249 521245 518237 515231 512224
      513219 516217 523219 528220 531219 535212 538207
 0.01 531984 531975 528968 527961 523957 519953 516951 511947
      507949 494970 490974 487977 480987 466006 463009 460010
      457010 447005 439995 436991 434984 434974 436968 439957
      442942 445928 446919 447911 446896 444888 441882 438877
      435872 430870 426874 419881 411889 406893 405895 401894
      394889 388886 381887 368888 359894 358896 357900 356907
      355911 351912 344912 330913 323913 317914 307919 299924
      287930 279937 273944 272951 273956 270962 269968 269975
      274979 274986 273990 278000 286006 289008 290011 291016
      295021 302022 308021 312019 322013 327011 329014 328019
      331029 333034 335038 333040 329045 322046 323059 326065
      327071 330081 330083 333086 337089 343088 347085 354084
      356080 362071 364069 367070 371075 376087 377093 378097
      381097 385095 387093 393089 396085 406079 413072 421067
      442058 450051 458045 493023 513016 521010 526997 531984
 0.01 462691 458690 455691 454693 450695 449697 446700 445703
      448704 451702 454700 456697 457694 459694 462691
 0.01 439716 437715 436716 435717 434719 433720 435722 436721
      438719 439716
 0.01 343867 342857 339852 332841 324829 317818 308811 302810
      302814 304816 309831 314843 320856 328868 332872 334874
      337874 341871 343867
 0.25 454626 455636 455643 454646 454649 461647 468646 473647
      477649 480655 479663 475667 471667 465666 460664 456660
      452661 446665 441675 438681 437688 435696 434701 431707
      428714 425718 419721 411728 407729 406726 406719 408713
      407709 404708 394706 392702 392698 395693 398686 398679
      398672 398663 399652 400647 403642
 0.25 529205 529197 528193 525185 521178 516172 511165 503162
      496159 493156 495153 495147 493143 488136 481133 477132
      473132 472137 474140 480145 479149 476150 470145 467143
      463144 460146 458150 454156 447157 444161 444167 448175
      447179 445182 444186 447189 449193 453194 459191 462189
      463185 469181 476179 479180 481183 485189 484192 481194
      478197 475198 472202 466204 459204 453211 447214 440214
      433217 427219 423222 423224 429229 431232 429235 421234
      413234 409236 408240 410247 413254 419259 425256 430253
      437251 442252 447255 448273 450283 452287 455288 458288
      459285 463274 466265 468261 472260 480262 485265 491271
      497276 500278 504276 508270 513261 514254 514250 513243
      512239 506222 500208 498205 497201 501195 505194 509195
      515200 522207 525208 527207 529205
 0.25 485230 485227 483224 481223 479223 476223 473224 470225
      468227 468230 471229 473228 477228 480230 482232 484232
      485230
 0.25 428931 428920 426912 421909 416911 409912 400911 389908
      383905 380903 377905 370914 348927 340927 332926 324926
      317928 303933 293937 288941 284945 285956 277963 276967
      278971 283971 283974 280979 279984 281988 285992 288997
      291998 293002 295008 298014 303016 310014 315011 326006
      337002 343003 345005 347009 346018 347026 345042 345055
      346057 351059 355062 363064 369067 378076 382075 384069
      387065 389064 395061 401059 405060 409059 412044 414035
      416027 420021 423016 425009 426999 426989 425982 423974
      424961 424952 426945 428931
 0.50 444629 445636 441643 438648 436654 436661 434669 433674
      432682 432689 430696 427700 421701 416700 411697 409695
      409690 408683 407677 407670 407663 408655 412650 417646
      421637
 0.50 509254 510248 510244 508235 503220 499213 494207 488205
      482204 475206 470208 457212 452215 446217 440217 434221
      430221 430224 438228 441229 445229 452229 431239 423237
      417237 414241 415243 417247 421249 428249 434248 441248
      449251 457252 463253 479258 487262 492265 497270 499274
      502272 505266 506259 509254
 0.50 511183 510177 508172 503170 498168 492166 488163 485158
      480155 475154 471150 467148 463151 462155 462160 463166
      466170 470170 476171 480174 484178 488180 493183 499185
      509184 511183
 0.50 488234 487228 486225 481222 476222 472223 469224 465226
      464229 469231 473229 477229 480231 482237 484235 488234
      488234
 0.50 458229 456228 454228 453228 454229 456229 458229 458229
 0.50 463181 464176 463171 462170 459170 456171 455172 453171
      451171 451173 452177 452181 453185 456186 459185 461183
      463181
 0.50 419963 419956 417947 416940 414935 412932 412928 407925
      394925 389923 382924 375924 369923 346931 320930 310933
      299937 294939 291941 290944 289947 290950 294953 304962
      296970 290978 284981 284985 288990 293993 297996 299002
      300009 305011 316008 324003 335999 342998 348998 353000
      355005 352011 350018 349035 350042 355044 358048 358055
      360058 363059 369059 374056 381057 388057 392056 396052
      398049 397046 395040 396034 406011 410998 414984 419963
 1.00 500235 501227 499219 496213 491211 484208 479209 470213
      465215 459215 454218 452221 457224 462225 471221 476220
      483221 488223 492227 495234 498237 500235
 1.00 493256 492252 491245 489242 486241 483242 478232 473231
      469234 463232 459232 450235 445237 444241 445243 447244
      453245 464246 473249 482252 491256 493256
 1.00 451222 450221 448221 447221 448222 450223 451222
 1.00 407975 407968 404964 400957 390940 374933 371933 370935
      368938 364947 356952 346953 337954 327958 318961 312966
      306973 304976 302981 303986 309987 318984 321983 324984
      323986 323990 328992 347993 355989 358987 361986 364987
      367990 367997 363006 358012 355018 355024 356029 360032
      365032 368035 367040 367046 369052 372054 378054 382052
      385050 383047 378039 378026 381016 386008 397993 403984
      407975
 1.50 489218 489215 487213 484211 481210 479211 476212 474213
      472215 471218 475218 477217 480218 483219 486219 489218
 1.50 479246 480239 479235 476232 473233 471235 465235 459234
      453235 449237 447239 449241 452242 459243 464243 471245
      477246 479246
 1.50 471218 470216 468217 467217 466219 464218 463218 461218
      459218 457219 457221 457222 458223 460224 462223 464221
      466219 468220 469218 471218
 1.50 398982 399978 399975 396971 395967 389967 386969 380969
      373967 378974 379979 378983 378995 378005 385000 391993
      395986 398982
 1.50 376010 377008 377006 376004 375006 374006 372007 372008
      371010 372011 374011 376010 376010
 1.50 365967 366961 363957 357957 354955 348956 345960 345963
      347967 344970 338976 333982 332985 337986 348985 355981
      361976 363972 365967
 2.00 479241 479238 478235 477235 476234 474234 473234 472235
      472236 470238 469238 470239 471240 473242 475242 476243
      478243 479241
 2.00 483217 483214 482213 480213 479213 478213 477215 478215
      480216 482216 483217
 2.00 457239 456239 454238 453238 452238 453239 454238 456239
      457239

$$





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