Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 310646
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 31/1200 UTC THRU JUN 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...EAST COAST...

SLOW MOVING POST-TROPICAL BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE SC COAST
THIS MRNG AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NEWD THIS PD.  THE
CIRC REMAINS WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT MSTR REMAINS AROUND THE
CIRCULATION TO SUPPORT BANDS OF MDT PCPN..MAJORITY OF WHICH HAVE
REMAINED OVER THE OPEN WATERS DURING MON NIGHT..BUT WITH ANY
BREAKS IN OVERCAST COULD SEE SOME INCREASE INLAND AS WELL THIS
AFTN AND TUES NIGHT.  MANUAL QPF TOOK A CONSENSUS APCH WITH .50 TO
1 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS THRU ERN NC INTO THE UPR SC COAST BUT
ISOLD NARROW AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINS WILL BE PSBL LEADING TO AN
ISOLD THREAT OF RUNOFF PROBLEMS GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVIER RAINS
ACRS THIS REGION.  ACRS THE MTNS TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA...AN
AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND HIER MEAN LAYER RH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FROM THE MTNS OF WV/VA SWD INTO NRN GA WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOME SCTD MAINLY AFTN/EVENG CONVECTION.  SOME ISOLD HEAVIER RAIN
TOTALS WILL BE PSBL DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS HERE BUT AREAL
AVG AMOUNTS WILL GENLY BE ON THE LIGHT TO MDT SIDE. IN
FLORIDA...AMPLE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD GOOD COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE PENINSULA...WITH
SOME PREFERENCE FOR ACTIVITY TO FOCUS OR REDEVELOP WESTWARD OVER
TIME.

...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

A DEEPENING UPR LOW AND ASSOCD SFC WAVE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY TUES MORNING OVER NRN ND BEFORE
WEAKENING AND DRIFTING NEWD TO JUST NORTH OF THE ND/MN BORDER BY
WED MRNG.  CONVECTION ALONG ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THIS MRNG BEFORE RE-INTENSIFYING WITH PEAK HEATING DURING
THE AFTN WITH MODEST INFLOW/MSTR SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF MDT TO
HEAVY RAINS ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST TUES AFTN/EVE AS UPR JET STREAK
INTENSIFIES TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE APCHG UPR TROF.  BOTH GLOBAL
MODEL RUNS AND LATEST HI RES MODELS POINT TOWARD AREA FROM ERN IA
INTO THE WRN HALF OF WI AND U.P. OF MI FOR THE HEAVIER RAIN
AMOUNTS WITH ONLY SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT.  HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE ERN ENVELOPE OF SOLNS FOR THE HEAVIER RAINS
BASED ON RECENT CNVTV TRENDS.   FARTHER WEST...SLOW MOVING COMMA
HEAD BAND WILL PRODUCE LONGER DURATION MDT TO SPOTTY HEAVY RAINS
ACRS WRN ND WITH MODELS REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH QPF AXIS.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN A CHALLENGE ACRS THIS
REGION WITH POOR RUN TO RUN MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH IN GLOBAL MODELS
AND THE HIER RES CAM GUIDANCE.   THERE IS HOWEVER CONSENSUS ON AN
INCREASING HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SRN CO WITH THE
INTERACTION OF A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL MCS DROPPING SWD FROM
THE CNTL PLAINS WITH THE SLOW APCH OF A WEAK UPR TROF ACRS THE SW
U.S. AND CONTINUED DEEP MSTR RETURN FROM THE WRN GULF THRU SRN TX
INTO OK.  MESOSCALE PROCESSES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DOMINATE NEW
CONVECTIVE DVLPMENT..WITH AN ATTEMPT MADE TO EXTRAPOLATE OUTFLOW
FROM EARLY MORNING MCS AFFECTING SRN KS/OK OUTFLOW TO PROJECT
RENEWED DVLPMENT THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...BROADLY DIFLUENT PATRN
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE FURTHER TUE AFTN/EVEN ACRS MUCH OF WRN
TX INTO SRN OK WITH DECENT SLY MSTR FLUX INTO SOUTHWARD MOVING
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BNDRY SUGGESTING A DECENT THREAT OF ORGANIZED
TSTMS/PSBL MCS ACRS NRN TX/SRN OK .   ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH POTNL
FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ACRS W TX EWD TO THE RIO
GRANDE IN REGION.  POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE CONDS INTO SRN CO THIS
AFTN IN A WEAK COL REGION ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SLOW
MOVING TSTMS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS BEFORE EVENTUALLY SHIFTING S AND
EAST TUES NIGHT THAT COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS AS
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.  FINALLY...A WEAK
S/WV WHICH MOVED EWD OUT OF OK MON AFTN WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT
WITHIN A SEPARATE REGION OF RETURN FLOW AND ABOVE 1.5 PWS OVER
AR/MO TO SUPPORT SCT SHWRS/TSTM NWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY TUES/TUES NIGHT.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 539976 540958 540949 538944 534933 534925 533920 526899
      519880 513871 509859 505849 500849 497847 488848 481852
      472857 464860 459863 455864 446869 438872 430875 425875
      422874 412874 404878 400882 396885 388884 384883 378884
      371886 365886 361883 354878 349877 343877 331889 324889
      322885 318873 313854 309844 308838 310834 312824 312820
      309817 277805 268800 264800 267798 268795 263795 256797
      252799 245806 243809 244815 251814 257819 263823 271825
      280826 287827 290829 294832 296835 301845 298853 302862
      305871 306885 305890 305897 308901 311903 317911 320914
      321920 322925 321930 319939 316949 314951 312949 312952
      311958 310961 308962 305962 302959 301954 295953 289953
      286954 279960 273966 261967 257968 253969 246974 242982
      240987 242991 238995 237001 242009 246014 250022 258025
      275032 283032 287033 290037 294046 296050 300051 305053
      310054 319051 323053 326054 325058 324061 325066 332087
      335095 338098 338095 339089 337084 335074 335068 337063
      341061 344061 353064 363069 366071 371073 374074 378073
      383070 386067 397065 405063 411057 413053 410051 404049
      402044 398034 395027 390020 384014 382010 382003 386994
      391986 393981 397977 409968 416962 423956 434952 437950
      442951 460957 465958 468958 469961 467972 464981 463987
      461992 456001 455016 452026 449031 445033 441036 441041
      444051 447063 448068 449070 447072 443072 445075 451081
      454086 459087 464088 467094 467100 468105 471108 474109
      486096 496082 503059 508050 514045 524030 527028 530024
      534019 536013 539976
 0.01 482682 480670 479665 477661 472658 469658 467661 460676
      458694 454710 453715 454720 459721 461719 465720 468729
      469734 471737 474738 476735 479733 482733 484733 484728
      485724 485717 483705 480696 481685 482682
 0.01 426662 426657 424655 419656 407660 399666 391674 377689
      370698 364706 358714 352723 351729 350736 342743 333749
      329752 326755 319762 314765 310769 307774 306779 308793
      308799 311803 313805 316804 318800 321793 323798 330805
      334806 338805 349800 358794 366787 378771 381764 380761
      374750 374747 377745 381742 384741 386742 391746 392750
      391753 393752 395747 397741 401729 406720 411711 417702
      420697 422690 424679 426669 426662
 0.01 411103 411101 409100 408100 407103 407105 409105 411103
      411103
 0.01 396784 388782 383784 379787 371792 365799 354815 344829
      336835 333839 332844 336843 339841 341839 342842 343849
      347849 350846 355839 360830 367823 374817 380810 386804
      390800 392796 394788 396784
 0.01 373191 373189 372188 371187 369186 368186 367187 367189
      369191 370192 370193 371192 372192 373191
 0.01 356131 355129 355126 354122 354119 352117 351115 349114
      347116 348119 350121 351124 353126 354129 355131 356131
 0.01 304964 304962 303960 302960 301958 299960 298962 298964
      297966 299968 301966 303966 304964
 0.01 292083 285077 276072 274071 273068 274061 272056 268053
      266052 261053 255062 251065 250071 253074 257077 264083
      268086 273088 277086 280086 287087 291085 292083
 0.25 526978 527966 525957 524939 523931 522922 517908 511898
      504888 500881 496876 486871 478871 470873 460876 454878
      449881 439886 434888 429887 423886 418886 412891 410896
      406902 401906 391915 382922 374928 363934 343945 324960
      316971 313975 308977 305978 301978 295977 288974 284974
      276975 269977 264980 259984 255995 248996 244998 244002
      245004 250008 254012 258012 266006 272008 278011 288018
      293021 299025 303030 306032 313034 318031 323026 326026
      329027 333030 339029 343031 350031 354028 356027 358029
      363042 362047 360049 356051 356054 358056 362056 369052
      376052 381056 386055 392055 394053 393050 387040 384035
      381028 380025 377024 372019 370017 369012 371003 375994
      382981 385976 390971 398965 407957 416950 426944 431940
      439938 445936 450934 459930 469930 474935 476939 478946
      482952 484957 486965 487970 486975 485982 478994 472006
      467021 464041 465049 468053 473053 480052 491051 500046
      504043 507037 519007 523993 526978
 0.25 401697 401689 397686 394687 389691 382697 375705 369714
      364724 362729 366729 371727 375724 382716 385712 391710
      394713 398710 400706 401699 401697
 0.25 385799 386797 384796 382797 381797 379797 377798 376798
      376799 374801 372803 372804 372806 372808 373809 375810
      376809 378808 379807 380807 381805 382804 383803 384802
      385801 385799
 0.25 367815 366812 363814 361815 359817 357819 356823 353824
      351826 349829 351831 355831 356828 356824 358825 360824
      361822 363820 365818 367815
 0.25 363771 362763 360756 356751 350750 344752 338754 328761
      325765 320768 316772 316777 319778 324778 327779 329782
      329787 332793 336795 341794 346790 351787 359781 363771
 0.25 357903 355901 354901 353901 351901 349901 348901 347901
      346902 344904 345906 346906 348906 349906 351906 353906
      355906 356905 357905 357903
 0.25 280817 278813 276809 272806 269804 265803 259803 254805
      252808 254812 257814 261816 264818 268819 274819 279817
      280817
 0.50 517952 517947 517942 516936 515929 514923 512919 509918
      507921 507926 509931 511936 513942 514947 515951 514955
      517953 517952
 0.50 515999 515992 514988 512979 511974 509970 504966 500967
      499972 497980 494990 491997 487003 482008 477014 473021
      472031 472036 475038 484040 492040 499038 504032 507026
      511017 515999
 0.50 500962 500954 499947 497943 494939 491937 487936 484939
      486945 488949 491954 492957 496961 499963 500962
 0.50 480899 480894 479892 476886 476882 474880 471879 464879
      458880 447885 437891 430892 424893 418894 413897 410903
      406906 402910 399915 392924 389929 387936 388939 391939
      396936 405930 411931 417933 424931 428928 431932 436934
      447929 456923 460920 467918 472916 475911 479905 480899
 0.50 390698 388695 385696 383698 382700 380702 379705 377707
      375710 374713 377714 378712 381709 383707 384705 386703
      388700 390698
 0.50 395959 392955 387955 380958 376960 371959 366949 363947
      359946 354947 350949 345954 340956 336957 331959 328962
      325969 319975 314983 309990 308994 305992 303988 300986
      293981 288979 283979 277979 273980 266984 263988 262991
      265995 268998 271999 276001 291009 307017 323016 331019
      338023 341026 345025 347022 346017 345012 347009 349005
      352002 358998 365992 370990 373988 377981 388968 393963
      395959
 0.50 385045 383040 380035 378028 373025 370024 366025 364030
      365036 367042 371046 376048 381052 383051 385047 385045
 0.50 379805 378803 378802 377803 376805 378805 379805
 0.50 357774 357769 356763 352757 344758 337762 336765 332766
      330769 333770 337770 339773 340784 341788 344787 349782
      355777 357774
 0.50 326768 325768 324769 323769 324769 325769 326768
 0.50 264807 263806 261807 260806 258806 256807 255810 256811
      256812 257811 258810 260811 261813 262815 263813 263811
      263809 263808 264807
 0.50 256004 256003 256002 255001 254002 255004 256004 256004
 1.00 505016 506011 505007 500009 495013 491015 486017 482022
      482027 482030 488033 493033 497029 501024 504019 505016
 1.00 468903 459891 457889 455890 452891 451894 448896 434904
      427907 426902 424903 415910 413919 412922 416923 420923
      424922 429919 436915 445915 449915 448919 447923 453919
      458914 463909 468903
 1.00 372981 370974 362972 356967 355963 352961 346960 337962
      333967 332972 330975 325979 321984 318992 317998 318002
      322008 329011 340017 341006 344998 355991 360985 364983
      368984 371983 372981
 1.00 353768 351766 349766 348767 349768 350769 351771 352771
      353770 353768
 1.00 294993 293988 292984 286984 281984 277985 272986 270988
      271993 275994 280994 286994 291995 293995 294993
 1.50 496021 496020 494020 493021 491021 489021 488022 487022
      486025 488027 489028 490028 491027 493026 494025 494024
      495023 496021 496021
 1.50 463903 460901 458900 455900 451901 450901 448901 447904
      446906 446909 450909 453908 455908 458907 460905 463903
 1.50 356978 357975 355973 352971 348969 347966 345965 339968
      337971 335977 331984 330997 331003 333007 336010 336008
      337999 340989 342985 346984 350985 353982 356978

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