Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 281854
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 29/0000 UTC THRU MAY 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN ROCKIES---EASTWARD ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN DAY 1 ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION.  THERE ARE
SEVERAL STREAMS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING EASTWARD THIS PERIOD
IN A BROAD AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING ACROSS THESE
REGIONS.   WHILE MODELS SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES---THERE IS AN AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
AMOUNT OF DETAIL SPREAD IN THIS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN.  ALONG
WITH THE MODEL TO MODEL SPREAD---THERE IS A LOT OF RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY--LEADING TO BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF
DETAILS.

SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY

ONE REGION OF ESPECIALLY LARGE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY IS WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  ACTIVITY
ALREADY FIRING THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TO NORTHWEST
TX--WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY OVER MOST OF TX AND SOUTHERN OK.  WITH LARGE RUN TO
RUN VARIABILITY IN THE HI RES AND LOWER RES RUNS---THE IN HOUSE
ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE USED PRIMARILY---WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS POSSIBLE.  CONVECTIVE CELL MOTION
VECTORS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST---AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL OUTPUT---ALTHOUGH THE
DOWNSTREAM SPEED AND EVOLUTION IS VARYING GREATLY RUN TO RUN AND
MODEL TO MODEL.  WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVING LOWERED FFG
VALUES---LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE RUNOFF ISSUES
OVER A LARGE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY

A FARTHER NORTHERN STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
MS VALLEY WILL HELP ACCENTUATE UVVS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG
FRONT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD THIS PERIOD THROUGH THE NORTHERN
TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE---FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE EASTWARD MOVING HEIGHT FALLS AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO
A JET ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD OF
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THIS PERIOD.  MODEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES ARE NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS
FOR POINTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH---WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF DETAIL
CONFIDENCE.

MID TO UPPER TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS


A WEAKENING MCV LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL
TO EASTERN TN INTO EASTERN KY AND A TRAILING AXIS OF VORTICITY
EXTENDING TO THE GULF COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PANHANDLE
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES HIGH THIS PERIOD THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID TO UPPER TN VALLEY.  WITH PW
VALUES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THIS VORTICITY AXIS---LOCALLY HEAVY TO
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE.  GIVEN OVERALL
UNCERTAINTIES WITH PLACEMENT OF MAX TOTALS---AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS
KEPT IN THE MODERATE RANGE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 483615 481630 479645 472673 471679 468684 462686 456685
      447683 444682 442684 437688 435694 431698 419700 404715
      402713 403711 405706 411694 414689 415684 421673 424667
      428664 433663 437663 438660 442659 445656 448653 452648
      456643 462623
 0.01 540184 542176 542168 542161 542155 540149 538144 534134
      525115 514104 510102 506104 505107 504114 500127 494129
      488126 486122 486116 484104 483091 483077 483070 483062
      480052 480047 477044 469038 464030 462027 457025 456024
      455021 455015 455999 456992 458988 464982 478968 491954
      498947 503939 512922 516913 518908 519901 519893 519888
      519873 518867 518859 519855 519846 520832 520824 516824
      507830 502839 498849 497854 495853 496849 499837 499834
      497827 495824 490823 482824 469836 442857 434863 428869
      421876 414882 407888 398893 395894 392892 388890 382886
      383882 386877 391872 402856 407849 411840 412835 412830
      411816 412810 415805 419803 421799 422793 423787 422776
      420770 409754 403748 397743 392745 388748 385756 381764
      378775 373782 367788 357802 348818 340837 336846 334852
      329855 322857 317857 313856 308856 304859 299863 297867
      294871 290880 288890 287894 287901 288906 289910 291921
      290926 286930 279936 275939 272944 265949 258954 251961
      246967 245972 246978 255979 266979 266982 262986 260990
      260995 264001 269010 272017 279022 296032 318029 339026
      349027 356025 363020 370015 374015 378015 386021 383026
      379028 375028 371030 366029 363031 359033 357033 356036
      354042 354047 359059 362061 367062 373069 375073 375080
      380087 384086 386087 387090 391091 395087 402084 404080
      407078 416077 420080 422085 424089 425094 422099 420102
      420107 423110 429111 439113 444114 447117 464129 468128
      473129 475134 478137 485144 488149 487154 483164 481168
      481173
 0.01 481173 482182 482187 480193 475194 469195 464200 464205
      465209 471211 476209 487203 492202 497199 503198 511200
      514206 517212 522218 526220 532217 533215 534209 536198
      538188 540184
 0.01 287825 284817 285813 284806 282802 279800 272797 268796
      262795 258797 255801 254804 250806 251810 253815 255818
      259821 266825 269827 274828 278828 283827 287825
 0.25 530170 531166 529162 525158 520160 516166 512169 508175
      510178 514183 519188 522189 526182 528177 530170
 0.25 507177 507176 506174 505173 504172 503173 503174 505176
      505177 507177 507177
 0.25 510887 510883 509878 506880 501884 498890 488909 483913
      477912 474910 473907 473897 472887 474879 474871 471865
      470863 470859 469855 466855 457860 442875 433883 423890
      416896 408905 401912 393918 384923 380925 375922 364918
      358917 351917 339919 327924 318928 309935 302941 295948
      288955 285960 284966 289970 286973 279975 279979 272986
      269990 269997 274005 278009 282012 287015 293018 300020
      307020 320019 329016 338012 343009 347004 353997 357985
      364977 374971 379969 385969 391971 395975 399978 401980
      400984 397988 393992 389995 386999 387002 390003 394006
      405011 410014 411016 411021 411035 412043 408047 403049
      399052 397055 398060 398062 401064 405067 411065 420061
      425063 429067 433072 438077 443079 447083 450087 452093
      456096 459092 459084 459077 452053 451045 450038 448021
      447005 448997 451991 457981 464974 477957 492939 495934
      497929 500913 505900 510887
 0.25 403790 404785 403780 398777 391778 385782 380787 377793
      370806 360815 355819 351825 348832 346840 347848 342855
      337859 332863 328867 326871 326876 328878 332879 338878
      345878 354878 358877 360875 364869 376862 376855 372850
      370848 365847 358845 359841 360838 363831 369817 373812
      378809 392803 400797 403790
 0.50 468957 468954 467952 465953 457955 455952 456948 459938
      462930 464926 465920 460909 459902 460896 458883 456880
      450881 439891 433895 425899 421901 418905 415916 413925
      411929 408932 403936 394939 389945 382950 375954 366957
      358959 350962 334967 317972 310976 304981 291989 283988
      275989 272992 271995 273999 277003 282007 289012 297015
      306015 315013 323012 330010 334008 337005 343999 349991
      358978 360974 364972 370967 383960 386958 391960 397965
      401968 404968 413967 417967 421968 428972 431975 434975
      436978 435982 437987 435992 433995 429996 425996 422999
      420003 419009 420019 423029 426031 428036 431047 434047
      436041 441042 445041 445035 445023 441002 441998 443994
      447987 458971 463964 468957
 0.50 447072 446072 445070 445069 443069 443070 444072 445073
      446074 447072
 0.50 321956 322953 321950 319945 314947 312949 308953 307956
      305962 304966 306966 311964 315962 318960 321956 321956
 1.00 441021 440019 439014 438012 437009 434008 432009 431013
      431018 433021 435021 437023 438027 440024 441021
 1.00 442930 441920 438913 434913 431914 426921 424929 422938
      421946 422950 425952 428952 431950 436945 438942 440938
      442930
 1.00 343980 343979 341980 343981 343980
 1.00 305998 302997 299997 295998 291997 289998 286999 286004
      287006 291007 295006 297005 298004 301002 304000 305998

$$




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