Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 042005
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 5/0000 UTC THRU MAR 8/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND STATES...

STILL NO BIG CHANGES TO EARLIER THINKING..WITH A MODERATE RAINFALL
EVENT AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWS EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND STATES.  AT LEAST MASS FIELD-WISE..THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PROGRESSING BOTH
THE POSITIVE TILT H5 TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST
THIS PERIOD..WITH THE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW..EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT..WITH CLEAR
SUBTROPICAL CONNECTIONS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND BLENDED TPW
LOOPS..WILL PRODUCE SOME MODERATE RAINS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO THE LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME HOURS..WITH A
RATHER BRIEF TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX A BIT FARTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT..AND THEN THE LONGER DURATION AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOWS EVEN A BIT FARTHER BACK.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR AT LEAST
THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS..THERE ARE SOME QPF
DIFFERENCES..ESPECIALLY THRU THE MID ATLANTIC STATES..WITH THE
ECMWF HIRES..UKMET HIRES AND NAM BEING ON THE SLIGHTLY
HEAVIER/FARTHER NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE..WHILE THE
GFS..CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL AND THE HIRES ARW AND NMMB5 ARE NOT
QUITE AS HEAVY NOR AS FAR NORTH.  WPC AGAIN CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE
IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE BIAS CORRECTED QPF TO ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE
QPF DIFFERENCES.  THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED FLOODING THREAT INTO
THE WEDNESDAY EVENING HOURS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO ESPECIALLY
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS..WITH HEAVY SNOWS THE INCREASING THREAT
THEREAFTER.  PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THE SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL.

DAYS 2/3...

***SOUTHEAST COAST AND FLORIDA PENINSULA***

AFTER AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
COUNTRY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE MUCH QUIETER AFTER THE WINTER STORM DEPARTS THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT.  A LARGE AND SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH FROM CANADA
WILL SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY.  ONE OF THE MINOR EXCEPTIONS TO
THIS WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT QPF OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S., AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.  BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY NIGHT, THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.  GIVEN THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORCING WITH THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THIS TIME, MOST OF THE RAIN OVER THIS AREA SHOULD BE
RATHER LIGHT.


***UPPER PLAINS TO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES***

A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED
AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW FROM THE DAKOTAS EASTWARD TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THESE AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH, WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING NOTHING AT ALL.
AMOUNTS MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED DOWNWIND OF ANY UNFROZEN LAKE
WATERS.


***SOUTHERN TEXAS***

AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE SHOULD FOCUS ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO
GENERATE PATCHY LIGHT AREAS OF QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
TEXAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
ONE INCH OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER
VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEAR
UNIMPRESSIVE, JUSTIFYING ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.
NATIONWIDE, OUR QPF AMOUNTS REFLECT A BLEND OF THE GFS, ECMWF, AND
BIASED CORRECTED MODEL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TERRY/HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 510298 505309 503311 501309 500303 498290 496284 493280
      491275 490268 490262 491255 495252 501251 502245 502238
      504233 508237 515244 519247 522252 525257
 0.01 427635 431640 433647 434655 434662 434669 434677 434686
      433694 430709 427720 427727 424734 424743 425747 427750
      431752 435756 437760 435765 425790 414815 406838 397860
      387885 377907 374913 373919 369934 361958 358971 357978
      355987 352000 351009 349013 349018 348022 347025 346032
      349048 355048 362047 365049 369052 366057 362059 359061
      356060 347059 343059 339058 337063 336073 335075 334080
      331081 325083 322084 318080 317074 320068 320064 319061
      316056 310045 306042 301039 280028 271020 267017 265013
      259003 259001 254969 257924 268892 294851 316815 339772
      351737 368696 375680 381669 387660 391652 393647 398644
 0.01 537215 538208 538202 537194 536190 531181 525174 522172
      518172 517175 520178 522189 523203 525214 526219 526223
      527224 534221 537215
 0.01 467699 465697 463698 455703 450706 447709 446714 446720
      443728 443731 445732 450728 455722 458716 463708 466702
      467699
 0.01 475870 475862 473858 472852 470848 467843 464839 464841
      464849 464856 465863 466868 467876 469878 472875 474871
      475870
 0.01 446860 445858 440858 436861 431861 426860 422860 420863
      422867 424869 430870 435869 440868 441863 445861 446860
 0.01 323093 320092 319090 315089 313090 309091 307093 305094
      303095 302099 305101 308101 310100 313099 316097 318096
      321095 323093
 0.25 522267 519263 517260 513256 510258 507261 505265 502270
      501277 503281 505286 507288 510285 513281 515277 519275
 0.25 421685 420670 419663 416658 412655 408655 405660 402663
      394670 389678 384688 380698 373715 366736 357754 348772
      340790 336800 335805 334812 335819 334825 333831 332838
      328846 322855 300880 295889 298890 301886 304886 307884
      311886 313890 311900 307908 297926 292936 289945 284968
      284974 286979 291980 296980 304981 308980 308982 304985
      291997 288002 287007 290012 294014 300014 304012 311007
      315004 318998 320993 322990 326987 330982 334975 343956
      352938 361919 370901 379880 385861 393839 399819 402807
      405794 409773 413747 417724 420699 421685
 0.50 415693 414685 411675 406677 399682 394687 390695 384708
      380722 375738 373744 369750 361763 358769 356777 351791
      349801 350810 348819 346827 348835 346840 343847 339854
      331866 325879 313905 310912 306920 301935 301942 301952
      303957 306960 309960 314959 319960 322962 326962 336953
      350928 357915 364903 370889 376875 382860 386845 391830
      395813 398796 401779 405764 409746 412730 414713 415702
      415693
 1.00 406722 406713 405710 403708 400711 398716 389739 385748
      382753 377757 371765 369770 367777 365789 364804 364809
      368808 375808 375814 373826 370839 370847 367851 361853
      359859 356868 353879 350893 345907 339923 340928 344925
      349912 359890 365880 370871 374858 376846 379840 381834
      384823 384816 386809 389797 390789 391782 399761 402747
      405735 406728 406722

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 540203 537185 528176 521162 517158 512154 510155 511159
      513163 512168 507172 506176 508180 512186 515192 517200
      516205 517209 517214 518218 523217 525220 529222 534220
      538213 540203 540203
 0.01 521269 522267 523261 521253 517246 514240 511236 507233
      503233 502230 497223 496224 495231 498238 502244 503249
      501252 497252 496248 491241 488240 486243 489262 492269
      495275 500282 507286 510286 514284 518279 519275
 0.01 534103 534085 532069 531052 530045 528038 525029 523023
      517012 513006 509001 504997 500995 497995 495997 490996
      487992 482989 479994 478005 478014 479022 486033 494042
      498048 501055 504070 503088 502097 503101 502106 504114
      507120 510121 513124 518125 523123 527118 531113 534103
 0.01 521889 521881 517876 513876 510875 509872 505847 497822
      496817 494812 490803 484793 481789 477787 474785 469785
      465784 460785 455786 452787 450789 448794 448800 445810
      444815 444822 446827 445833 445836 442846 433861 433867
      438869 442870 447870 449867 452868 455872 462876 464881
      465888 467894 468895 470893 471888 474886 476891 477897
      480912 482919 484923 490944 495955 501962 505965 509965
      512962 514957 514951 514942 509931 509923 509916 510911
      513906 521889
 0.01 425662 424657 422655 419649 417645 414643 409642 403644
      398648 392650 386656 381658 376663 369672 366678 364683
      360691 352700 348701 345700 340700 335703 330709 324719
      318728 314737 308748 305752 302755 298761 294765 284774
      275782 267791 250801 250806 256809 266812 279815 284819
      288824 286832 283836 274845 268851 264857 260862 258867
      258873 258883 259892 259899 256905 252914 241933 238936
      236941 233952 232959 232969 234975 236979 239985 242988
      244991 245996 243003 241010 238015 230024 228031 227036
      228042 229045 231047 238048 242047 247038 249031 250026
      258014 259005 260997 260989 260985 261982 265978 266973
      271959 279941 285929 288914 290908 290900 293893 294887
      296882 296874 297866 300861 303856 306852 311843 316839
      319834 322829 325823 331811 335807 342804 351799 360794
      369786 374776 379765 387752 395743 402732 415711 418702
      422690 424683 425673 425662
 0.25 536207 536206 536204 535201 535198 534195 532194 531193
      530194 529195 528195 527196 526198 526201 527203 527204
      528205 529207 530207 531208 532209 534209 536207 536207
 0.25 517273 519268 519265 517262 516259 515256 514252 512252
      510254 510257 510262 510265 511270 512274 514276 516275
      517273
 0.25 404675 402670 397668 392671 389677 387686 386691 383694
      376706 371713 365720 361723 358720 355716 349715 345717
      342720 337727 331735 326744 319759 315770 312780 308789
      306797 304810 305818 307824 310824 313822 318815 339784
      350767 356761 362754 375740 380733 385724 394706 398698
      401688 403680 404675
 0.25 263949 264943 263937 260934 255934 248938 243944 237951
      235955 235959 236964 237967 244974 248974 252973 256966
      260958 263949
 0.50 516267 516264 515263 514263 514264 514267 515268 516267
 0.50 354748 353744 349744 346740 342735 337736 331746 326757
      322769 320782 320789 321792 324791 328787 330781 337771
      343762 346757 351753 354748

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 543190 543182 540175 534163 527153 524150 518148 513147
      511149 509153 508161 509164 508167 506166 505169 505174
      507180 513192 518204 523216 524222 526225 529226 534228
 0.01 524260 523260 521259 519259 518260 516261 515261 514263
      512266 511268 512271 511273 511276 512279 511281 511284
      512286 512287 513289
 0.01 538024 538016 536010 534002 530996 523989 515983 504977
      499974 497967 494952 489939 487934 484929 477918 475916
      475912 478908 479901 478896 473882 469873 467865 464852
      463842 466836 465821 461814 460804 462797 464792 467788
      469782 471773 473767 476751 477743 477736 480730 481724
      485712 489697 492684 493678 492670 491664 489662 486660
      483659 481659 473662 469666 466672 463685 462690 457695
      448704 441712 433720 430725 427729 424735 422743 420749
      420757 420764 421773 422781 420788 416792 413799 416810
      423818 432828 435835 436842 436847 435849 431854 422858
      422862 423863 428864 432865 435866 445874 453881 456904
      456910 454912 451911 448908 445908 443911 441916 443923
      447934 451941 453948 457959 460964 462969 464971 462973
      460970 455966 449961 444963 443970 443976 446983 450994
      457006 468025 472029 476032 483041 485043 489043 493040
      497044 500052 505061 508068 512073 516077 521078 525076
      526069 524060 522053 517039 515034 514031 514027 522031
      525032 527034 530034 533032 536028 538024
 0.01 368725 367718 364712 362707 359704 355701 349700 344701
      341704 337707 333711 329719 324727 318737 308754 303761
      300767 296771 292773 286775 278779 270785 260790 251795
      245802 242807 241812 242819 244820 249820 253821 259822
      263821 268818 272815 276812 282812 288811 290813 291816
      288826 287832 288839 292841 295839 299836 301832 304827
      304822 306816 307814 310812 316806 320802 322797 327789
      332781 335776 337771 346758 362740 365735 366732 368728
      368725
 0.01 316964 316949 312937 311923 306911 300905 295902 289901
      286904 285911 286919 287925 287928 284929 280931 274941
      264960 264968 266972 268977 272982 273986 274992 275001
      276005 280006 282008 287008 297002 299998 299991 300986
      302984 306981 310977 312973 316964
 0.01 262015 263007 263998 263990 262984 261976 259970 256967
      253968 253972 252988 250002 245013 239023 239027 240031
      241034 245036 250034 254031 257025 262015
 0.25 290797 289794 286791 283790 278791 271794 268796 266798
      260803 255808 256812 260812 265808 270803 279802 287800
      290797

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