Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 220659
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
158 AM EST WED FEB 22 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 22/1200 UTC THRU FEB 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC DOWN TO FLORIDA...

THE LOWER MS VALLEY CLOSED LOW WILL BE TAKING AN UNUSUALLY FAR
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE GUIDANCE
INDICATING A TRACK DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WED
AND THEN FAR SOUTH FL AND THE FL KEYS THROUGH EARLY THURS. THE
MODELS INDICATE A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ADVANCING ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FL PENINSULA AS A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE/FORCING AROUND THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW DIGS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL WHILE
INTERACTING WITH A POOL OF RATHER DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND
MODEST INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POOLING OF INSTABILITY ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA...AND SO SOMEWHAT HEAVIER
RAINS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PENINSULA. WPC QPF FAVORS SOME 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL. FARTHER
NORTH UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC REGION...SOME MOISTURE WILL HAVE SPREAD NORTH WITHIN
A BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS.


...CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...GREAT BASIN
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD
AS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOT THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WHICH IS NOW CROSSING CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA
WILL BE EJECTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES LATER WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST UT AND MOVING INTO WESTERN CO AS THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES. A STRIPE OF FRONTOGENETICALLY ENHANCED
SNOWFALL WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY EARLY
WED...BUT THIS WILL THEN BECOME A BIT MORE FOCUSED/CONCENTRATED
OVER THE WASATCH/UINTAS AND INTO THE NORTHWEST CO HIGH COUNTRY AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHERN WY INCLUDING THE MEDICINE BOW MOUNTAINS
LATER WED THROUGH EARLY THURS. FARTHER NORTH...RELATIVELY MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AND OROGRAPHICS WILL PROMOTE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND STREAKING OUT INTO THE
IMMEDIATE HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER WEST...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IMPACTING PARTS OF WESTERN WA/OR AND
DOWN INTO ESPECIALLY NORTHERN CA. WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE
WEST SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE...WITH
SOME POCKETS OF 0.50 INCH+ IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.


...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE STREAKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION WED
THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A STRIPE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SOME SNOW
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD
IMPACT THE REGION. WPC DID NOT PREFER THE WETTER GFS WHICH HAS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE EVOLUTION. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS A BIT WEAKER AND WPC FAVORED THE RELATIVELY DRIER SOLUTIONS AS
A RESULT.

ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 212820 216823 219827 224831 228833 234833 243834 278842
      282844 285847 290855 293866 297874 302877 310876 312873
      315873 321873 323869 323862 329855 333853 336856 336864
      333867 331870 329875 329880 331883 336878 346864 348860
      350858 353857 357859 363859 374847 378842 381844 379847
      379852 381852 388844 394842 398840 402837 404833 407829
      410828 412823 415821 420818 425820 434822 438829 440833
      441841 442856 441861 445861 446864 446867 446876 445890
      443896 443903 443916 445923 447926 449930 452932 457933
      461937 464943 464949 465956 464962 460985 460992 458998
      457013 457027 453037 451042 450045 448042 445029 441018
      438006 434987 433979 431975 428973 425971 424973 421978
      420984 419989 417992 415997 414004 413008 412016 413021
      411026 410030 409036 405045 403049 399052 394058 391061
      385063 384063 386067 384071 381072 374063 370061 368057
      370052 369050 361054 357057 360058 363059 364062 362065
      360065 361067 366068 369069 370072 369078 368081 369088
      363089 359091 359095 363094 366095 367098 366103 364107
      366110 369111 372106 374103 376102 379103 381106 384104
      388103 390108 382111 378114 375120 373122 369121 363121
      351119 350122 351126 355129 358128 361126 367127 367130
      364134 361138 360143 361147 360154 360160 358167 361170
      368171 371166 375165 382163 389158 392162 391167 390169
      387174 387180 388183 391183 395185 399189 399196 395199
      391198 383193 376187 372184 367183 356182 349184 347185
      346189 346195 349197 352193 355190 359189 365191 370194
      373198 377204 390216 397220 402222 400225 396226 392227
      389231 386232 384232 383235 384240 383242 384247 388252
      391254 397259 406263 418267 427269 436269 442269 445268
      452265 455261 459257 462253 465253 466255 473262 479270
      488287 492290 496290 500290 503287 506284 507278 507274
      506271 504268 499259 496249 493240 490237 489235 486234
      479227 476225 478223 482223 491226 494228 496224 499216
      497212 495207 490205 487205 484206 478205
 0.01 478205 463211 449212 441213 436206 434203 433198 431194
      432191 432186 431180 431172 430167 428162 426158 425153
      426140 427137 429137 431141 434145 433152 434157 437161
      445166 449173 453174 455172 455168 457164 460162 464163
      470168 475169 478171 480173 484173 488177 493177 496182
      498185 502186 507177 500160 508163 515169 519170 522169
      525168 527164 527150 522143 512129 510106 507104 507099
      507092 506088 506081 504078 501080 499085 497089 494092
      491093 489089 486080 484065 485057 484052 484040 488016
      493992 496971 499945 499934 499920 499911 498906 497887
      495875 496863 495848 494844 494838 497816 502795 502788
      503783 503778 505774 508763 511753 513749 514742 516728
      516717 515705 512694 510692 506691 498690 492687 485691
      482694 478694 470696 466697 464702 461705 457707 455715
      450721 448731 445739 444744 442749 437757 435761 434765
      436770 435777 435784 433789 428789 424787 422783 424779
      426775 427770 428766 426762 422760 421753 419744 414736
      411736 411739 418757 420763 419769 417778 417785 413788
      410791 407796 402803 400807 396809 389814 386813 384809
      386797 386794 382793 380790 380787 381782 381776 382772
      382765 381761 377759 375758 372760 370763 368768 364786
      363791 360796 358800 354803 343816 337815 334815 330812
      328809 327803 326800 324796 319796 319793 322789 326783
      337771 340763 339758 337756 333754 330757 323762 319765
      316766 310768 304768 294755 288749 283746 275744 266744
      256745 247748 232754 218763 212768 209771 210777 212779
      217779 222778 225779 227782 226784 223787 217794 212800
      210804 209809
 0.01 498159 497157 497156 496154 494154 492153 491155 492157
      494158 495158 497161 498159
 0.01 489152 486149 485146 483144 482143 478141 475141 473142
      472146 474149 476151 479152 482153 486154 489152
 0.01 452191 453188 451185 448184 446186 444188 442188 442192
      442193 441198 442200 444198 445194 447189 450193 452191
 0.01 343180 344178 344175 344173 343171 343170 341168 339167
      337167 337170 339170 341171 342173 341175 341177 341179
      343180 343180
 0.25 519156 517149 513144 506135 494127 489112 485108 481103
      478098 474091 473088 469086 464084 464091 464096 462098
      453099 451103 447103 441101 434103 430102 426102 421105
      419109 417110 414106 413097 411090 413083 418071 420068
      420063 422062 424058 423053 421047 419044 417045 413050
      408054 402057 400064 394068 390072 389076 391078 393080
      395080 402080 406085 406089 406094 404103 402108 400109
      389114 384118 381121 376127 377131 380132 385134 388134
      390132 395127 397125 399124 406122 413122 422119 425121
      427120 431113 434111 437110 442114 450116 452122 452131
      453135 456137 462133 468130 477131 484132 489131 493129
      494132 496139 499145 503150 511155 516158 519156
 0.25 494748 494740 493734 489730 486730 474744 467751 463760
      459769 456781 457789 459789 460787 463783 467780 470782
      473786 473795 472801 474813 475828 476833 479837 482834
      484830 487819 489808 492795 492782 493768 494753 494748
 0.25 479241 479238 478235 477235 476234 475234 474236 474237
      475240 477241 478241 479241
 0.25 462241 462236 459233 450231 445233 441232 442228 446226
      442223 437223 431223 425225 422229 419228 412231 401239
      400242 401246 404249 408251 424252 437250 444249 451247
      457244 462241
 0.25 453156 454154 455152 453151 452154 453156 453157 453156
 0.25 425203 425201 425199 423199 421200 420200 418201 417201
      416203 416205 417207 418206 419205 420204 421204 423204
      424204 425203
 0.25 420178 421173 420170 419167 419165 420161 420157 418155
      415156 414158 412161 412164 412167 412172 412174 414178
      417179 420178
 0.25 418057 416055 416054 416055 415057 415059 416060 417059
      418058 418057
 0.25 398213 398211 398210 397208 395206 394205 392204 390205
      389206 390207 391209 393210 394212 395212 396213 398213
      398213
 0.25 316813 316807 314803 310797 299787 295781 295773 292764
      287758 281755 275752 266751 259751 242755 235758 227763
      224767 226769 230769 240769 241771 240773 224798 220804
      218807 219812 220816 223819 229823 234827 242828 258830
      273834 286839 292845 294847 298847 303842 312840 314838
      314834 313826 313821 314817 316813
 0.50 485788 485786 485783 485781 484778 483776 482779 482781
      482784 481787 481789 481790 481792 481793 483794 484791
      484789 485788
 0.50 412242 411242 410241 408241 407244 408244 409244 411243
      412242
 0.50 401074 401073 399072 397072 397073 397074 399075 401074
      401074
 0.50 388125 389123 388121 386122 384124 383126 384127 386127
      388126 388125
 0.50 311811 311807 309803 305798 296789 285762 275756 269754
      261754 249756 241758 236759 234762 234764 237765 244765
      248769 245774 241777 237783 235789 233794 230800 228806
      228811 229815 234818 237823 242826 252825 258826 270830
      282834 288836 293840 298828 299820 303818 308814 311811
 1.00 303808 302801 299797 293790 288779 284769 277762 268759
      263757 260758 255768 253772 249775 244783 241787 238791
      234800 234805 235809 240812 244813 244816 249817 253817
      254815 256811 259810 261807 268805 272806 281810 286812
      291812 299811 301810 303808
 1.00 292832 292828 291824 287821 282819 278821 274821 268820
      265820 264823 269825 274826 280828 286830 289833 292832
 1.50 298802 296798 293795 289784 286779 282775 277768 273765
      268764 269767 268773 272783 273790 272795 274800 278803
      282805 287807 293806 298804 298802
 1.50 283785 284783 284781 283779 282779 281779 279779 277779
      275780 275781 277782 277783 278784 280785 280786 282787
      283786 283785
 1.50 256799 253799 250798 248798 245797 242796 240797 237800
      237802 238804 241804 245803 248803 252802 254801 256799
 2.00 292801 292799 292797 291795 290791 288789 286789 285791
      284796 283797 283798 285800 287802 290802 292801

$$





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