Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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789
FXUS04 KWBC 191849
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 20/0000 UTC THRU OCT 21/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTHERN SIERRA-NORTHERN CALIFORNIA---PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES

THE ONGOING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME EARLY DAY 1
AS MOISTURE FLUX VALUES IN THE MAX INFLOW BAND WEAKEN AS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES INLAND
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION.  THE MOST
CONCENTRATED PRECIP IN THE VICINITY OF THIS INLAND MOVING FRONT
WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS
CONCENTRATED PRECIP AND POST FRONTAL CYCLONIC LOW TO MID LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS FROM
THE NORTHERN SIERRA/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST RANGE---NORTH
THROUGH THE OREGON/WASHINGTON CASCADES--WEST TO THE
OREGON-WASHINGTON COAST RANGE/OLYMPIC RANGE AND INTO PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.  CONFIDENCE HIGH
WITH THE OVERALL PRECIP LOCATIONS AND DISTRIBUTIONS IN THIS FLOW
REGIME WITH OVERALL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE INLAND MOVING WEST COAST TROF---A LEAD
STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE PUSHING EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE
STRONGEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY---WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR LESSENING PRECIP CHANCES
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  HI RES MEANS USED TO MITIGATE DETAIL
DIFFERENCES IN THE ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS---WITH MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THESE REGIONS.

MID TO UPPER TX COAST

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO COASTAL TX.
 AS HEIGHT FALLS MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS---THIS INFLOW AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT UP THE TX COAST.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP
AMOUNTS ALONG THE CENTRAL TO UPPER TX COAST.

FLORIDA

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE CURRENT POST FRONTAL EAST
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS FL DAY 1.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE
PENINSULA THIS PERIOD.  CONFIDENCE LOW WITH QPF DETAILS IN THIS
PATTERN---WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED
AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS WHERE RAIN BANDS
CONCENTRATE.

ORAVEC


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 21/00Z
 0.01 535188 535182 533176 528167 526162 528156 530151 532145
      536132 539119 535107 532103 526102 521101 519104 512110
      509114 507123 505127 502130 497132 493130 483126 477125
      473125 472121 472113 473106 468099 459096 454094 448094
      444094 440090 438094 433091 430088 426086 424103 422107
      419110 415111 413110 413106 413103 411101 410098 405108
      383113 381118 381122 382122 392119 399116 403114 405119
      411121 416125 418129 417136 414141 411145 404150 401153
      396159 391169 389173 390178 393182 395186 397191 397197
      391195 387193 381190 378187 373184 371182 368182 356181
      350182 347185 345189 344196 344201 346205 346209 348213
      355221 358226 361229 365238 368242 372247 382253 402256
      413257 423257 434257 438256 443256 448256 454256 467260
      472262 475265 483273 499287 502288 506287 510283 513278
      519267 521258 521253 520247 518243 513234 503213 501209
      502202 504200 508201 512205 518208 523208 527205 530199
      533194 535188
 0.01 499661 497651 495647 491643 486643 480647 479652 478655
      476656 472663 471673 468677 467682 466686 467692 461698
      455704 451711 450719 454720 457717 462713 464708 467704
      478692 484688 490682 492673 494668 498665 499661
 0.01 394078 391069 390064 386063 384063 384066 385071 383074
      380073 378069 375065 372062 369061 366063 367068 369071
      372076 373082 373086 372086 367085 363083 360078 360071
      353066 345050 344047 344043 345036 347032 352029 352026
      349024 344023 339025 325025 316041 313044 307044 295043
      291043 289047 288053 290056 294060 297063 305068 312072
      319078 324085 329086 332084 336081 341081 346081 350084
      353095 355098 360096 363100 365101 372098 382094 384090
      387088 388078 392080 394078
 0.01 366205 367201 368196 367193 363192 360190 356190 354191
      352195 352199 353202 354204 357206 361207 364207 366205
 0.01 344180 345173 344169 341166 336164 331162 325162 322165
      320169 324171 327174 331175 334178 337181 341181 344180
 0.01 319973 320967 319962 318958 314954 301943 294940 286937
      282936 276936 268936 265935 261937 259940 258945 257955
      257961 259966 262967 264970 270978 274984 281989 287995
      289997 295998 300998 302996 306986 313982 318975 319973
 0.01 311805 309801 305799 297796 288794 278791 269791 264790
      260791 255793 249793 245796 242799 239801 236805 232814
      233820 235824 245825 248824 252825 255825 257823 259819
      261809 264810 268813 271816 276816 281816 287816 294821
      298821 303819 311805
 0.01 301920 301916 299912 297909 297903 297898 295895 291889
      285885 278885 278894 279902 284908 290910 294918 299922
      301920
 0.25 524187 526181 525176 522168 519160 516152 510148 503145
      496141 491137 485133 480132 483145 479150 472148 465145
      460139 451150 444146 442144 437143 435146 434151 435157
      437160 443165 446172 447178 444181 442182 439186 437201
      441204 445204 450201 455196 461193 466189 470182 475179
      484181 498186 514189 520190 524187
 0.25 510259 511252 510246 507235 499213 496208 493206 482203
      464208 460208 457210 453213 449214 444214 440211 436207
      429205 426203 423199 418198 413200 410202 405204 394200
      375191 374193 375198 377203 381207 397218 401221 403223
      400225 396225 389223 384223 380225 379229 381234 387241
      398247 408250 419252 429251 439251 457249 467248 471248
      477249 482251 485251 491258 497268 500272 504273 507263
      510259
 0.25 453112 451107 448104 444102 439102 435104 432106 430111
      432114 436113 440115 445118 450117 452114 453112
 0.25 335169 334168 332166 330165 329165 328166 328168 330169
      332169 333170 335169
 0.25 342061 341057 339055 336049 335045 333041 329041 325044
      320048 317052 317059 321065 326066 333067 337064 342061
 0.25 307966 306960 303956 298952 294949 289947 282945 272941
      266941 264943 264947 265953 267960 274969 277973 281977
      284977 286975 288970 293968 298970 303970 307966
 0.25 254806 252804 250806 249808 251809 252808 252807 254806
 0.50 509172 508166 505161 501160 496163 492165 488160 484156
      480156 476157 470156 466153 462153 460155 456155 450154
      445151 442150 438150 438154 441159 450168 452179 447189
      449193 453191 462186 465180 465176 463174 458171 458167
      460165 464164 467164 476166 484171 495173 502176 507174
      509172
 0.50 499229 498222 498214 494210 488209 482207 477208 467211
      458212 449215 445216 439216 434215 428212 427208 423204
      419204 416206 417208 420212 423212 423216 422218 422226
      426230 424233 419232 414227 415216 410214 406209 397203
      387198 382196 379197 379201 382205 388209 395215 401218
      405221 406224 405227 401228 387226 384228 383232 385234
      393240 404246 416248 426248 435246 457245 461244 465242
      468240 473243 478245 481244 480236 476231 468234 464230
      466226 470223 475221 480221 486222 489224 492227 495230
      499229
 0.50 335058 335056 334054 333053 332052 331051 331050 329049
      327049 325050 324050 323051 322052 321053 321054 321057
      323059 325061 326061 328061 330061 332061 333060 334060
      335058
 0.50 298960 298956 296954 294952 292951 288949 287949 285950
      283952 281954 279958 281960 283962 286963 290963 294964
      297962 298960
 0.50 281972 282970 281968 281967 280966 279964 277962 276961
      275962 275964 276965 276966 277968 279970 279971 281972
      281972
 1.00 486215 485213 484212 482211 481211 480211 479211 477211
      476212 475212 474214 473214 473216 475217 476217 478217
      480217 482217 483217 484217 485216 486215
 1.00 464221 465219 464217 459216 453218 445218 439219 432221
      429221 425222 433227 439227 446226 451224 454223 458224
      462224 464221
 1.00 427245 429242 428239 425236 420235 415233 409232 407234
      403236 404240 408243 413244 418245 422245 427245 427245
 1.00 405215 403213 402211 399209 397207 394205 392204 390204
      390207 391209 394212 396214 398215 401216 403216 405215
 1.50 421240 419240 421241 421240

$$





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