Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 290646
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 29/1200 UTC THRU SEP 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OUT INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

THE RATHER STRONG/DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN IS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIFT
OUT AND OPEN UP INTO A NEGATIVE TILT H5 TROF THAT REACHES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS
MORE PROGRESSIVE/LIFTING OUT PROCESS WILL BE ACCOMPLISHED BY THE
STRONG S/WV WHICH IS NOW DROPPING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE CLOSED
LOW OVER CENTRAL CA..WITH THIS S/WV ROTATING INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY EVENING AND THEN LIFTING MORE
NORTHWARD THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN NEGATIVE TILT FASHION MONDAY NIGHT.  AHEAD OF THIS
STRONG NEGATIVE TILT S/WV..THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
REALLY STRENGTHEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING IN HIGHER PWS FROM THE SOUTHEAST..WHILE LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL REALLY BE ENHANCED OVER THE SAME REGION UNDER AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN.  THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE/STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE LIFT REGIME WILL LEAD TO A
SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN RAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE CO
FOOTLHILLS NORTHWARD THRU THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS..WITH AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINS LIKELY AND EVEN MORE ENHANCED
RAINS LIKELY VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS WHERE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW COMES INTO PLAY.  FOR THE MOST PART THE MODEL QPFS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT HERE AND STAYED CLOSE TO THEIR SOLUTION.  EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME 1-2 INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINS FROM WESTERN NE
NORTHWARD THRU WESTERN SD AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN ND AS WELL AS
EASTERN PARTS OF WY AND SOUTHEASTERN MT..WITH SOME ISOLATED 3+
INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE..ESPECIALLY VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST..WEAKER S/WV ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW THRU PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL SUPPORT SOME
GENERALLY LIGHT RAINS THIS REGION.


...SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

BEEN A TOUGH FORECAST HERE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS..WITH SOME OF THE
MODELS CONSISENTLY TRYING TO INCORRECTLY BRING THE HEAVIER RAINS
INLAND FROM THE GULF INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  TONIGHTS MODEL
RUNS ARE DOING A BETTER JOB IN NOW KEEPING THE HEAVIER RAINS
CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST AND THRU THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA..WHICH
SEEMS TO BE THE RIGHT WAY TO GO..GIVEN THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLOW REGIME CONTINUES TO BE
FLAT.  DO EXPECT SOME NORTHWARD PUSH INLAND TO THE HEAVIER RAINS
1ST HALF OF THIS PERIOD AS THE RATHER WELL DEFINED H5 S/WV NOW
VICINITY OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER MOVES GENERALLY
EASTWARD..BRINGING A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE WITH IT AND HELPING TO
STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO AND
OVER THE BOUNDARY.  AS THE H5 S/WV AND FRONTAL WAVE PASS OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST MONDAY EVENING..THE SIGNIFICANT RAINS SHOULD
TAPER OFF.  ALTHOUGH THE MODEL QPFS ARE TRENDING IN THE CORRECT
DIRECTION..THAT IS NOT TO SAY THERE AREN`T SOME QPF PROBLEMS..AND
SUCH IS THE CASE WITH THE 00Z GFS AND UKMET HIRES MODELS..WHICH
ARE AGAIN SUFFERING FROM FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AND WERE NOT CONSIDERED
IN THE MANUAL QPF ONCE AGAIN.  WE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE HIRES
ARW/NMMB5..WHICH HAD REASONABLY GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE GEM REGIONAL
AND EVEN THE NAM.   THE AVAILABILITY OF HIGH PWS..AT OR ABOVE 2.25
INCHES..WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME 1-2 INCH AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GA INTO NORTHERN FL..WITH VERY
ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE.


...GREAT LAKES...

THE DIGGING H5 S/WV NOW VICINITY OF MANITOA/ONTARIO WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT RATHER QUICKLY THRU THE GREAT LAKES BY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT..TRIGGERING GENERALLY LIGHT RAINS WITH A SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
FAST MOVING AND SEE PWS ONLY TEMPORARILY POOL TO 1.25 INCHES
VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  MODEL QPFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SOME
0.25-0.50 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GRAZING THE NORTHEASTERN LAKES AND
STAYED CLOSE TO THIS SOLUTION.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 541192 542186 542181 541172 539166 535160 530155 528153
      525152 522149 518148 513147 500144 494143 490138 486133
      482125 476123 471122 467120 464116 462113 461110 463107
      463102 456100 450095 442093 440091 437092 431089 426086
      423089 430100 429104 426106 419108 412104 409098 408096
      406097 404101 402104 397099 394099 391105 390109 385114
      382115 379117 375121 373125 377126 381124 386125 393123
      408125 414130 416133 416139 410155 406160 404166 403176
      403186 406192 415194 426191 433189 437186 439189 438192
      441195 443196 449191 452191 455189 464179 475177 480175
      483174 486177 489179 493180 501179 506183 510190 514204
      518209 521211 526212 531209 536204 539199 541192
 0.01 506234 506228 505222 504216 504213 502209 499205 494204
      489203 483203 475206 467209 463212 459213 449215 440216
      434225 433227 436229 437231 435232 431234 430238 432244
      437245 440249 444250 446249 464246 475248 480251 485255
      488259 492257 497255 501251 504244 506234
 0.01 512032 512027 511023 507015 497008 482001 477999 472000
      467000 453995 446992 440988 428979 421975 412973 406972
      401972 397974 391975 387976 385979 373990 362999 357004
      353012 350018 348021 345023 322043 317047 312053 308059
      306068 306070 307073 311075 314074 321070 326066 329066
      331070 328079 329087 328092 326091 319086 314085 311087
      307093 311099 317102 327103 334102 340099 343091 345087
      348084 349081 354081 359082 363084 367089 372096 374098
      378099 383096 386093 389093 393093 396094 396090 399085
      402083 406081 419074 426072 429071 432071 438076 443077
      447080 459090 461092 465093 470094 473093 477087 479077
      479069 483067 487066 488062 490056 494057 496056 498051
      502047 507043 510038 512032
 0.01 500796 499785 497774 492757 494746 493735 494731 494725
      492710 491699 490686 487678 483672 480663 475663 472660
      468659 460663 455668 453676 452684 450692 447710 447717
      451726 455732 459741 461749 460758 457765 454774 450781
      448784 443785 437788 430792 420801 416806 412814 408831
      407840 407845 409849 415861 419863 422863 425864 426866
      427870 429873 433873 435871 436866 441850 446836 448833
      450835 447843 443863 441871 442884 445890 447892 449896
      450908 451917 455937 457942 459942 464935 464915 467894
      472875 478860 485849 493836 496827 498815 499806 500796
 0.01 428242 427240 426238 425238 423237 421237 419236 418236
      416235 414235 413236 414237 415239 417240 418239 419239
      421239 423240 424240 425242 426243 427243 428242
 0.01 439132 439125 435123 432126 430130 428134 427141 425146
      425149 427150 432150 434145 435138 437134 439132
 0.01 427688 425684 421684 415690 409697 405705 402715 402720
      403727 407727 409723 414715 418707 422699 426691 427688
 0.01 375731 374722 369719 364719 357720 350722 344726 338731
      333734 323742 315750 306758 296768 287776 284781 282786
      277789 268791 262792 255797 252801 250806 256817 262830
      266845 275869 280882 287895 289901 289911 292924 295930
      300929 303924 305916 308884 314875 318870 324864 335858
      342849 348840 351833 354824 357810 361799 368788 372782
      372778 370775 364775 358777 355779 353776 356771 363761
      366754 369748 375731
 0.01 284076 284071 282069 277064 270060 265057 262055 257054
      254054 251057 249059 251063 255068 262071 269075 276076
      278078 281077 284076
 0.01 280966 280956 280951 278947 273949 268955 265961 261967
      259970 259974 262980 269980 272979 275976 278970 280966
 0.25 536193 537185 536180 533176 531173 528172 525177 524182
      523189 523195 525200 528202 532201 534198 536193
 0.25 493222 492216 487212 482211 476212 472215 466217 464220
      469220 474222 481224 486224 491223 493222
 0.25 484240 484237 482236 481235 479234 478234 476233 474233
      473234 472234 471234 469235 469238 470239 471241 473241
      475242 476242 478242 480242 482242 483242 484240
 0.25 490800 491787 488775 484768 482766 480762 477750 474745
      473750 471753 468759 463774 456789 443797 436801 430807
      425813 422820 420827 421834 424830 427823 431816 435811
      438808 442808 445809 444812 441819 439823 439827 443828
      446824 454812 459807 461805 463807 464808 465812 462829
      460839 460846 463846 470846 474842 479835 483826 488813
      490800
 0.25 492038 493030 490025 486021 482018 472013 460010 448006
      438002 432002 425001 419001 413001 403005 397005 391006
      386008 381010 372017 362022 354028 351032 349038 348047
      347051 345055 343059 340064 342069 347071 361074 366076
      371079 374083 376085 380086 382083 385077 386073 384070
      381067 372058 367049 371039 374038 377039 382041 389042
      396045 398046 399049 397059 392069 389074 391077 395077
      398077 400075 405071 410070 415067 418064 422061 425056
      430054 444055 454059 461067 463068 465067 466059 470055
      476053 482051 485046 492038
 0.25 469155 469150 467147 464145 461146 454148 449143 445137
      441137 439141 439147 440151 444157 449164 451166 454165
      456156 459155 463156 465157 469155 469155
 0.25 432174 434170 433167 430164 426161 421159 419159 417165
      416170 416175 419180 422181 426180 429178 432174 432174
 0.25 340803 337786 325782 322780 323776 325769 325764 324761
      321761 314766 306774 296786 293791 288795 282797 272798
      263800 259804 259808 260811 266815 277821 282824 287829
      290836 290843 288851 289860 293867 297872 302871 308865
      323842 329831 335817 335813 337810 340803
 0.50 485793 485789 484785 481785 479787 477795 476802 475810
      474818 475822 477825 479822 481817 483809 484801 485793
 0.50 486035 485028 483024 478021 471019 449013 441009 429010
      416010 412011 406014 389025 385028 386034 390037 396040
      400042 404047 406051 407054 411056 420052 425050 430049
      441050 454054 461054 465052 475048 482043 486035
 0.50 474768 474765 474764 473765 472767 472768 471771 471773
      471776 472776 473777 474775 474773 474770 474769 474768
 0.50 466787 466782 463782 462784 461787 459790 458793 457796
      456798 456801 458800 460798 462795 464792 465789 466787
 0.50 363063 363058 362056 360054 358052 354053 352054 350057
      350059 350062 351064 355066 359066 362065 363063
 0.50 331805 329800 325798 325793 324790 322792 317791 313789
      306789 300791 296802 291805 285803 281800 275800 269801
      264804 264808 266810 270812 279817 287823 290828 293834
      294845 293853 293858 295863 299866 303863 307858 319841
      323831 324826 327818 329811 331805
 1.00 476034 475031 471029 464026 456026 449024 435018 429018
      423015 417015 411020 408028 409032 410035 413043 417045
      418045 427044 434044 450047 458048 465045 474036 476034
 1.00 320823 320815 319812 315811 307803 300810 296813 292818
      295828 298833 301840 298853 298857 300858 304854 307850
      310843 315833 318828 320823
 1.50 461042 461037 457035 450033 445028 437026 430025 423025
      420028 421032 424039 427042 430042 438042 445044 453045
      460044 461042
 1.50 316824 317820 316817 313815 308814 305814 303817 299820
      298822 300825 302829 304832 308835 311832 314828 316824
      316824
 2.00 455039 450038 447034 443031 438031 433031 429032 428037
      429040 433040 437040 441041 446041 450040 455039
 2.00 313824 314822 313820 312819 310818 309818 308818 307819
      306820 306823 306825 307827 307828 309828 311827 311826
      313825 313824

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.