Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 300659
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 30/1200 UTC THRU JUL 31/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

WET PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO MOVE EAST AND
EMERGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS
WITH A BROAD SHIELD OF PCPN.  AFTER A BRIEF LULL...CONVECTION
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS HAS STARTED TO FLOURISH OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KS WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SEEN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS RESULTING IN INCREASING VORTICITY TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES.  THE MODEL RUNS FROM THE DAY SHIFT HAD BEEN ADVERTISING
THAT A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WOULD FORM OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS...THAT LOOKS ON TRACK.  AS A RESULT...AN
AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES WILL
BE INCREASING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE EC AND
GFS BOTH ADVERTISING PW VALUES OF 2 TO 2.25 INCHES BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD BEING FED BY 35 KTS IN THE LOW LEVELS.

IN TERMS OF THE MODELS...AGREEMENT WAS PRETTY GOOD IN DEPICTING AN
AXIS EXISTING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE WAS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE
LATITUDE WHERE THIS AXIS SETS UP.  BASED ON THE TRENDS IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WPC AXIS WAS ADJUSTED NORTH A BIT WHICH ENDED
UP BEING A BETTER FIT WITH THE MODELS.  IT DOESNT TAKE LONG BEFORE
THE GFS PULLS NORTH AND AHEAD OF THE ECMWF AND IS SOMEWHAT OF A
NORTHERLY OUTLIER APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK.  IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...THE GFS AND NAM/NAM PARALLEL BOTH
APPEARED TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AT VARIOUS TIMES.

THE WPC RAFL AXIS IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 29/12Z
ECMWF AND SWATH OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WAS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
MODELS.  SINCE THESE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT
RAINMAKERS...ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE.


...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN FAST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY.  GENERALLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT BUT THE SHOWERY
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD EASILY RESULT IN
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AS WAS THE CASE ON TUESDAY.  WPC
GENERALLY FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS HERE.

...FL PENINSULA...

CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DURING
THE UPCOMING AFTERNOON.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN STRIPES OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF.  GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA.

...GREAT BASIN...

THINK THAT ENOUGH MONSOON MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE
TO RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON COVERAGE AGAIN...BUT THE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WILL BE LACKING WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS
SINCE THE MAIN IMPULSE HAS MOVED EAST.  AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THAT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ROOTED TO
THE TERRAIN...WITH STRIPES OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF BETWEEN 0.10 AND
0.25 INCHES.

BANN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 525746 524730 523725 520723 513721 510720 506721 502720
      498721 491718 487714 483712 478711 473712 467719 459723
      454724 452723 443724 440723 443719 443713 441716 438719
      436724 433725 432728 428732 427737 425746 425751 424756
      422759 418761 414770 407779 401785 396793 389810 387819
      386828 388841 392852 395863 399871 403880 408888 413894
      418898 424905 429909 437892 438887 443885 449880 449876
      447872 444872 441874 435874 432871 426861 425855 427848
      432841 436833 440825 446820 450821 453824 458832 461835
      461838 459839 456843 454848 454855 456859 459863 462865
      469869 473869 475872 479880 479888 478892 474902 472908
      470914 470922 474923 518879 520866 520852 521847 521841
      521828 521822 521813 522807 522798 523791 522783 524770
      525746
 0.01 492142 491137 488133 483127 481124 478126 473125 469127
      463123 459122 458119 457115 455112 452110 453107 456103
      455100 452098 449095 445094 440091 438088 435089 431088
      427085 427077 427071 428065 428058 427053 424044 420035
      416028 409022 406015 400001 393986 386970 384963 382951
      376926 372918 365912 358906 351902 346903 342905 337910
      332915 326919 321922 316928 312937 312945 314950 317958
      319963 319969 319981 319987 320990 324999 323012 323026
      321030 317032 302032 298038 296045 294053 288060 273070
      269071 265069 260064 253059 247054 243053 239054 235057
      234061 236065 239068 246072 252076 259082 264085 269090
      274094 276097 277102 282109 290111 295111 299109 306106
      306102 307096 308089 307085 307081 309079 312076 318076
      328090 334095 337098 342099 343094 342089 341081 343071
      347068 351068 356070 360072 370074 372077 374082 376087
      380088 387093 391093 391099 393105 393109 389111 385111
      377115 374118 373123 377121 381117 385115 388114 391117
      393119 396120 399123 403123 408119 413118 417120 418124
      416130 410137 408140 403139 399137 395138 398146 394145
      392141 388139 386136 381135 379137 380142 378146 377152
      375154 372154 370156 369161 370169 369172 367169 358163
      355167 357171 359181 360186 364190 371195 386206 391208
      395208 400207 403205 404200 407199 410200 412203 417204
      420202 425204 428207 430212 428216 427221 431223 435223
      447220 452221 454219 454216 449216 441211 439207 442203
      442200 440195 436189 432186 427184 419190 415191 411191
      408182 414162 416158 420158 427158 426155 427151 429150
      431152 433154 436158 440161 447165 451163 453160 457151
      459146 462143 466152 471155 475152 478149 482147 486147
      490145 492142
 0.01 391188 391185 391183 390181 389178 387178 385178 384179
      383181 384183 385184 386185 387186 388187 389189 391188
 0.01 369782 368773 366771 363771 354777 349779 344783 340784
      333789 329792 322795 317797 314792 312775 318761 322748
      329742 333736 334734 333730 329724 323723 308726 303729
      298730 292734 286738 280741 276745 267754 262762 255772
      250786 248791 246797 243808 243816 245825 249828 252830
      253834 257846 262848 266846 268840 269832 272825 277822
      282811 286807 291805 294803 298803 306804 317809 318811
      316812 314813 308816 306821 307827 309829 313829 320830
      326828 333825 336820 338813 341801 341797 342794 346793
      349794 359799 363796 365791 367786 369782
 0.25 510843 510833 508826 503816 498812 497810 496804 496794
      498788 500780 501773 500764 498757 496753 497745 496740
      495735 489731 484731 478732 468737 464741 460746 456752
      454757 449761 443764 437765 430767 423770 419775 416778
      412784 410789 407800 405807 403814 402822 401827 401837
      402843 405848 409851 412847 413840 414833 418825 431809
      439799 444796 451795 470785 479792 483796 487801 489805
      490810 489813 485816 481818 477822 475830 474838 475846
      477852 480858 484861 488863 491866 494868 496865 502861
      505856 508850 510843
 0.25 437151 438148 437146 435146 434147 434150 434151 436152
      437151
 0.25 437110 438107 437106 437105 435103 434103 432103 430102
      429104 428104 427105 426106 425108 425109 424110 424111
      425113 426113 428111 429111 430110 431110 433110 435110
      437110 437110
 0.25 423131 423129 423127 421128 421129 420131 421132 422131
      423131
 0.25 420062 421054 420048 415039 412035 405035 399033 395030
      393027 394020 392011 385986 379963 371940 366929 362923
      354916 351915 347915 342918 336926 332933 329945 329954
      329962 329967 330970 333973 336975 339980 348000 350006
      353010 358016 373031 378034 378038 370041 366043 360045
      353046 352050 355055 358058 363059 366058 371059 375062
      385068 389079 396082 397076 403080 406077 409075 410073
      412067 417064 420062
 0.25 413101 411099 410099 408099 407100 407103 407104 408105
      409105 411105 413103 413101
 0.25 385198 384197 383195 381194 379193 379192 378191 376190
      375189 375188 374189 375191 376192 377194 379196 380197
      381197 382198 384198 385198
 0.25 301762 299759 295759 292761 290764 286769 276771 270774
      265780 261784 257791 257795 254803 253807 254810 260815
      266817 271812 280803 287790 295778 298772 301764 301762
 0.25 301089 300084 298080 294078 289078 285080 281080 275081
      275084 279086 282088 287090 291092 295092 300091 301089
 0.25 299097 298096 296095 294096 293098 294099 296099 297099
      298097 299097
 0.50 499850 500846 499842 496838 493836 489835 484836 481839
      480844 480849 482853 485856 489857 494856 497853 499850
 0.50 476755 476752 473751 468754 462758 458761 454767 451771
      448778 451779 455779 461777 466774 473771 474766 475761
      476755
 0.50 434780 433778 432776 432778 431781 431782 430783 431784
      433783 434780 434780
 0.50 434792 433789 429787 425788 422786 419787 416790 412795
      411805 410815 411819 412817 416810 418809 422808 428803
      432797 434792
 0.50 415055 414047 410040 405039 399043 395043 392042 388042
      385044 379046 372046 366049 360050 359054 361055 368054
      375055 380060 386063 391067 395071 395074 397074 401074
      405072 404068 406065 411062 413060 414056 415055
 0.50 388018 388011 387006 383991 380980 377966 373955 369943
      364934 357924 352921 349921 343923 339927 335936 334943
      333952 333960 334966 340976 351995 355005 358009 363014
      381026 386023 388018
 0.50 295086 295084 294081 293081 292082 290083 289083 289085
      290085 292086 293086 295086
 0.50 287785 288781 286777 280777 275780 272783 267787 263790
      262795 266800 268801 272801 279799 282794 284789 287785
 0.50 267806 268804 267802 266802 265803 263804 261805 260806
      259807 260807 262808 264809 265808 267806 267806
 1.00 408054 408052 408050 406051 407054 408054
 1.00 380010 381004 381999 378990 373972 368954 361937 357932
      353929 348928 343933 341937 339943 337952 337961 340969
      344977 354989 357996 358001 362005 374013 378013 380010
 1.50 376001 376993 374983 369967 368959 364951 362944 357937
      352933 348934 346936 342954 341960 343969 347975 352981
      356986 360994 363999 369003 374006 376001
 2.00 373999 373991 371984 368970 365956 359945 357941 352937
      348938 347940 345947 345960 346969 349974 357981 363992
      366996 371000 373999
 3.00 366983 366975 364967 362963 361955 357950 354946 350946
      349949 349954 350958 352963 355968 359972 362978 365983
      366983

$$





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