Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS04 KWBC 231741
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
140 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 24/0000 UTC THRU AUG 25/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

UPR MS VALLEY/MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY...

OVERALL PATRN HERE WILL FEATURE A WELL DEFINED VORT LIFTING ENEWD
INTO SRN MN EARLY IN THE PD IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
LARGER SYNOPTIC UPR TROF ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK S/WV IMPULSES
EJECTING NEWD FROM THE CNTL PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE BROAD UPPER
TROF.  ALL WILL COMBINE TO SUPPORT SHWRS/TSTMS WITHIN THE MOIST SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST/UPR MS
VALLEY TUES NIGHT/WED. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH CLOSER AGREEMENT
IN DEPICTING TWO MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF HEAVIER PCPN WITH THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD ACRS
SRN MN/NRN IA WITH WELL DEFINED MCV THAT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY ACRS
SRN MN TOWARD WI TUES NIGHT.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND POTNL
BACKBUILDING ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF MCV FOCUSED LIFT TOWARD
TRAILING COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO HEAVY TO PSBL EXCESSIVE RAINS
NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER REGION WITH WEAKENING REMNANTS LIFTING ACRS
WI TOWARD MI BUT STILL SUPPORTING MODEST PCPN AMOUNTS GIVEN DECENT
MSTR FLUX AHEAD OF SYSTEM.  FARTHER SOUTH...A SECOND AREA OF
ENHANCED LIFT IS EXPECTED ACRS ERN K INTO NRN MO/IL WITH POOLING
OF GREATER THAN 1.75 TO 2 INCH PWS IN WEAK WAA PATRN ALONG NRN
FRINGE OF UPR RIDGE AXIS.  A BIT MORE MODEL SPREAD EXISTS ACRS
THIS AREA..LEADING TO SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS
HERE..BUT POTNL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME ISOLD HEAVIER TO PSBL
EXCESSIVE RAINS GIVEN THE HIGH MSTR AND POTNL TRAINING/CELL
REGENERATION.


4 CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES...

A WELL DEFINED VORT EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION
THIS PERIOD.  DECENT MID/UPR FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH
HEAVIER AMOUNTS LIKELY FOCUSING ACRS THE MTNS AND UPSLOPE AREAS
ACRS CNTL CO TONIGHT AND WED AFTN.  GIVEN REASONABLY GOOD
CONTINUITY IN MASS FIELDS..HAVE CLOSED FOLLOWED CONTINUITY WHICH
MOST CLOSELY FIT THE GEFS MEAN QPF MAX AMOUNTS ACRS THIS AREA.
LOCALLY HEAVY AND ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A SERIES OF VORTS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST MEAN TROF AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
CLOSED HIGH.  THESE VORTS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCENTUATE LIFT IN THE
AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF SOME OF THE
LATEST HI RES RUNS WHICH HAVE TRENDED WETTER ACRS PORTIONS OF W TX
NEWD INTO SW OK..BUT CONFIDENCE IN MAXIMA PLACEMENT REMAINS LOW
GIVEN THE EXPECTED MESOSCALE NATURE OF FORCING.  HOWEVER GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT  OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AND WITH FFG
VALUES RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM INTO SOUTHWEST
TX---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE WITH A MARGINAL RISK AREA
DEPICTED.


CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST/FL NWD INTO THE SRN APLCNS...

A AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL PWS UNDER NEAR STATIONARY STG UPR
RIDGE..WILL LEAD TO SCTD DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY ACRS THE CNTL/ERN
GULF COAST/FL INTO THE SRN APLCNS WITH SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING PROVIDING MAIN FOCUS FOR
ACTIVITY.  PREDICTABILITY IS RATHER LOW WITH HEAVIER QPF PLACEMENT
AND THUS A COMBO OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY WAS GENLY
USED ACRS THIS REGION.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 25/00Z
 0.01 561035 557011 553997 551987 549975 549961 550946 550929
      550912 550897 548892 548884 545870 541854 540835 538802
      536769 534751 532746 531738 530726 528721 527714 526708
      524702 520690 516681 511669 505660 501653 494650 489654
      488657 488661 487673 488677 490685 492701 492705 491706
      489703 487695 484692 477689 474690 471696 469703 468715
      469730 469737 470747 472763 478789 463797 445805 429812
      413823 403838 400845 393849 389853 386856 381864 377872
      372880 366888 365893 365900 367903 366905 364907 363910
      362916 362923 362930 365933 370941 372944 374949 371959
      367967 364972 361971 353961 345965 341975 336984 333993
      316004 303017 300020 295020 284020 279019 277020 277024
      277030 275036 270040 267042 262042 253039 249038 243038
      238037 233040 230043 228047 228053 228057 230059 236065
      241071 248076 262088 266095 273100 277102 282103 286102
      289099 292096 292089 297081 305067 312063 319064 323061
      325060 328061 329065 327069 326077 325083 324085 321085
      314085 312086 313090 313096 316099 317101 317105 321107
      337116 344123 349130 355131 359138 363146 365156 366161
      366169 369176 370181 374181 378178 377174 375162 374156
      378151 380152 382156 385166 386169 389170 392169 394165
      395158 395152 394148 395145 399135 400130 399126 397117
      395112 393110 394106 395103 394097 396094 398096 403098
      407100 408098 409090 408084 411078 415073 425058 420050
      416050 414048 414045 416040 417035 419029 420024 419019
      416015 415010 412005 410002 411995 411982 413971 414963
      416960 420963 426964 432965 436966 445971 448974 454976
      458978 465978 473976 482975 492975 497977 495982 492995
 0.01 492995 490005 491011 489018 487023 487031 486048 489059
      490065 490073 491079 491087 490101 492107 494112 496115
      499113 502108 505104 510103 513106 516109 521110 528105
      533098 536094 540092 545084 549071 556048 561035
 0.01 512160 513154 512150 509143 504139 497135 491131 487126
      483119 480112 481092 469090 464094 461096 457095 449093
      443090 436088 428086 425086 424090 427096 437105 442110
      443113 447115 444135 448141 453145 457145 460144 463139
      466136 470135 476135 479136 480141 483149 490161 492164
      495164 500158 503158 505160 510161 512160
 0.01 473126 474124 473122 473121 472119 471118 471116 470115
      470113 469111 468111 466112 465114 464117 464119 465121
      467122 468125 470124 471125 473126 473126
 0.01 450078 450075 448072 447069 444067 442066 438066 436068
      436069 439072 441073 443075 445077 448078 450078
 0.01 380834 365826 365821 367817 370813 367813 359818 354817
      350817 345820 340824 333830 324827 312827 304825 304816
      307816 311814 320808 325801 328796 330792 340775 349759
      351754 351751 349751 340757 329770 326775 324779 321789
      314805 298795 298788 299783 301772 300765 298761 295757
      292754 285751 279753 276755 252785 242785 239788 237792
      236796 234799 231802 230807 229818 229824 230830 234832
      237829 245823 249820 252822 255826 258830 262837 264840
      265842 262843 257844 255846 255849 258854 261859 268864
      275868 289880 292890 292896 291900 289904 291909 293914
      295921 295937 292947 292952 293957 296960 300960 305954
      308943 312931 314927 317924 324918 328915 331911 334901
      336890 337884 339879 340875 343871 349863 357857 370843
      375842 377839 380834
 0.01 355078 356073 355070 352068 350066 348064 344064 341064
      338065 339068 340070 344071 345073 349075 351076 352077
      355078
 0.01 355044 356038 355031 352029 346028 343028 341032 339035
      337038 335041 335045 337047 340047 345046 349046 354045
      355044
 0.25 541041 542029 543016 542004 543993 542969 542957 541944
      539922 538902 535877 532859 531850 529837 527818 521774
      517750 515731 506688 503680 501676 499676 499685 500697
      501716 503741 506764 507781 506805 506826 504845 502853
      500859 494875 491882 489891 489898 492906 501913 504919
      506923 506930 507942 509950 511953 511958 509968 509978
      507987 507995 508006 507027 507036 507048 507059 509066
      514071 516073 520072 530063 534059 537053 541041
 0.25 464841 463837 462834 460831 458828 457825 455824 453826
      452829 451833 454835 455837 457840 459842 461843 464841
 0.25 457927 455917 456906 456897 456888 456881 454874 449867
      445860 440857 436856 431855 425856 420856 419850 420844
      421841 424837 427832 424828 419830 413835 408843 404853
      399861 394868 392872 391879 391891 391899 389904 387909
      385911 383916 382922 386933 387947 387957 384968 384976
      387980 394985 399986 400983 403973 405960 408949 409945
      411940 414936 417935 423943 427952 433959 440962 444960
      446954 451947 453942 455937 457927
 0.25 427902 426897 424893 422889 419886 415885 413889 413896
      414900 415906 419908 424907 427905 427902
 0.25 411061 412056 410054 404049 394043 388040 384039 380039
      376042 371039 367034 364034 363038 359054 361060 361064
      363067 369070 373075 375078 378079 383075 388072 394071
      400067 405065 409063 411061
 0.25 352117 351115 350115 349113 348112 348111 346110 346109
      344108 343107 342109 342110 343111 344113 344114 345114
      347116 349117 350118 352117
 0.25 355985 353981 350979 346986 340992 335999 327012 322020
      316026 309030 304030 301031 297038 289042 284048 276049
      270050 264049 256049 245049 242051 240054 239057 240060
      247066 257077 262083 266087 269089 276090 283086 287083
      289080 291076 291072 290061 288058 288056 293055 299057
      302059 305059 313056 318051 323043 326035 331028 336021
      347009 351004 353998 355985
 0.25 310903 310901 309899 309898 309897 308894 307894 306893
      304894 304895 304897 304898 304899 304901 305903 306905
      308906 309905 310905 310903
 0.25 303878 304873 304867 302859 299851 297842 295839 292837
      287839 286841 285846 286852 289860 292866 296874 298880
      301880 303878
 0.25 291807 292804 290802 288799 284797 281796 275795 271795
      268796 269800 272803 274806 278808 283808 287808 291807
 0.25 271814 269810 263807 258805 259802 259799 257798 251800
      247804 245809 245813 247815 252816 257818 263819 270819
      271814
 0.50 540030 539016 538004 537997 537989 537973 538961 537948
      535917 534901 532890 528864 526850 525837 524828 523821
      519811 516809 513814 511824 507849 502869 499880 498886
      498891 501894 506895 512900 514904 515912 515929 515943
      517956 514971 514986 513991 513997 515003 515008 515040
      518051 519055 523056 527055 531053 536045 539037 540030
 0.50 450928 444917 441914 441911 440906 436905 430909 426912
      412917 411906 410897 405882 404878 402876 400873 397872
      395875 394879 394885 395889 396893 396898 395905 394909
      392912 390920 394935 394956 393967 394971 396969 398965
      400959 402951 403941 405933 410929 416927 421930 426937
      428943 430951 434956 437959 440957 442949 446945 448940
      450928
 0.50 450903 451896 450889 447879 445874 443870 437863 435861
      431859 427860 424862 421867 420872 421877 425879 430886
      435895 439902 443905 448905 450903
 0.50 420839 419837 418837 417837 416837 415837 414839 413840
      412841 412842 411845 411847 413848 415848 416847 416846
      417844 418844 419842 419841 420839
 0.50 407058 406056 402053 397050 390046 383047 376050 375054
      377056 382060 387068 392066 398063 405061 407058
 0.50 375071 374070 374069 373067 372068 373071 374071 375071
 0.50 348998 348996 346997 344997 342998 341000 340000 339002
      338003 337004 338005 340004 341004 342003 344002 345002
      346001 347000 347999 348998
 0.50 327027 328022 326021 324022 319026 314031 307034 304035
      301038 301043 304046 307051 310051 313048 317043 321037
      325031 327027
 0.50 283078 285072 283068 278061 272056 267054 263053 255055
      248054 246058 248060 253067 256071 259074 266078 274082
      278082 281080 283078
 0.50 257813 255812 255811 254812 255812 256814 257814 257813
 1.00 535040 536027 536016 535009 534004 532997 532991 532984
      533976 535965 534955 531936 528912 529906 528900 527891
      525881 523871 523863 521855 519850 518844 516840 514843
      512853 511862 511864 513865 516866 518870 519876 519889
      520897 522909 523920 525928 527938 527944 526948 523955
      518971 518977 519981 521989 520997 519002 519007 525023
      527028 530034 532040 535040
 1.00 445933 445929 443926 438924 436923 435918 435914 433913
      430914 428916 428921 428926 430933 432940 433949 437954
      439952 440947 442940 445935 445933
 1.00 405910 406905 406901 404898 403899 401901 400906 399908
      399913 398917 397920 400921 401918 403915 404912 405910
 1.00 396057 396055 395054 393054 392054 391055 390057 391057
      393058 395058 396057
 1.00 272071 271069 269066 267064 264062 262062 259061 255061
      257064 258066 260068 263070 265071 269072 272071
 1.50 442933 442932 441930 440930 438929 436929 435929 434930
      433933 433935 433938 434940 434942 434945 435947 437948
      437947 438946 439945 439942 440940 440938 440937 441935
      442933 442933
 2.00 439937 439935 438933 438932 437930 436930 435932 434933
      434935 434938 434940 435941 435942 437944 438942 438940
      438939 439937

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.