Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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882
FXUS04 KWBC 190602
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
101 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2018


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 19/1200 UTC THRU JAN 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST---GREAT BASIN---NORTHERN ROCKIES

AN ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED MID TO UPPER TROF
WILL BE PUSHING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD DAY 1 FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CALIFORNIA.
THIS TROF WILL BE COMPRISED OF TWO COMPONENTS---A NORTHERN PORTION
OF RELATIVELY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS THAT MOVED INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DAY 1---WHILE ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL COMPRISE A FARTHER
SOUTH COMPONENT---WHICH WILL AMPLIFY AS THE PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT.  PW VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE AHEAD OF BOTH COMPONENTS OF THE ELONGATED
TROF---SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN--WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THE GREATEST TOTALS FROM NORTHEAST NV---ACROSS
WESTERN TO NORTHERN UT---FAR EASTERN ID INTO NORTHWEST WY WHERE
THE STRONGEST RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL PASS OVER.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS. SEE THE
LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

MORE PERSISTENT WESTERLY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL IMPACT THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS PERIOD---SUPPORTING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS FORM THE WASHINGTON-OREGON CASCADES---WEST TO THE
FAR  NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST RANGE---OREGON COAST
RANGE---NORTHWARD INTO THE OLYMPICS.

EAST TX---WESTERN GULF COAST

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROFFING INITIALLY OVER SOUTH TX WILL REMAIN
POSITIVELY TILTED DAY 1 AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS TROF--AFFECTING AREAS FROM EAST AND SOUTH
TEXAS AND ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP POTENTIAL TO BE OFFSHORE WHERE THE STRONGEST
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF WILL PERSIST.
 COASTAL AREAS OF TX MAY BE IMPACTED BY .25-50"+ AMOUNTS---WITH
LIGHTER TOTALS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN TX AND HEAVIER TOTALS
OFFSHORE.

SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS
VALLEY---UPPER LAKES AND INTO  NORTHERN NY STATE/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO AND NORTH
CENTRAL QB.  THIS SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AXIS OF GREATEST PRECIP NORTH OF THE U.S.
BORDER.  THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIP AREA MAY AFFECT FAR
NORTHERN NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND---WITH FAR NORTHERN
MAINE HAVING THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWS THIS
PERIOD.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 493611 498620 501630 506641 509647 510654 517670 523691
      529714 532729 534745 535759 536774 538778 538784 539796
      544822 548834 552844 554854 556869 557878 557892 556904
      556919 555927 555935 555941 553949 551952 548952 544947
      541939 538929 534920 531910 524888 521877 518867 516858
      513857 510861 503862 499863 495861 493863 493867 492872
      491881 490887 487910 484929 478947 476954 474957 474943
      473930 474917 478900 470850 471846 470839 470834 468831
      467818 466812 464807 461799 459787 458779 456772 455767
      455760 457751 460743 461734 460721 459708 458701 456697
      454682 455670 459653 461646 468639 472635 475628 480616
 0.01 533201 532191 530183 526174 522167 516163 513167 508166
      497161 496155 496148 494140 491134 485129 481128 478125
      475123 474120 476109 475091 474080 474075 475069 476059
      474056 471058 466060 463057 457049 441052 438054 433054
      427053 425058 424062 423075 421078 418080 410079 407080
      405084 404093 400100 395104 383113 374116 367118 359122
      355126 356129 357133 360136 363139 367141 371146 371150
      371155 369165 369174 374177 378177 380175 384177 386180
      389182 393182 400180 407176 411174 414175 417177 422177
      427172 429168 428163 425157 425154 427152 432158 435164
      439171 440182 442190 443193 447195 453193 458189 470179
      474181 476185 482191 484194 483197 480201 471202 465205
      462204 459205 454210 452213 448213 445214 441213 437213
      433210 428206 425201 421200 417201 415202 417206 422210
      424212 424215 422221 419225 416227 417218 418215 416213
      409211 400206 389197 378188 371184 366181 357180 350182
      347180 346176 344169 342165 336163 329160 322159 318157
      316159 315166 318169 322170 331174 338185 343186 345193
      345198 347201 349203 353202 357203 364201 367200 371201
      378204 382206 386209 393213 401220 401223 400225 397227
      387225 381219 375215 369215 365213 362214 360218 362221
      362224 364227 370233 375238 381242 393251 400256 404258
      409259 416257 425256 443256 451254 457254 463256 467258
      470261 476264 482269 488273 493279 498285 504289 507290
      510287 512285 514279 519268 519254 516243 514234 507220
      504213 501204 503200 506201 511207 514214 520218 525219
      531215 533201
 0.01 455091 454086 454083 451081 448080 446080 443077 441079
      440084 441086 442090 443092 447092 448092 452092 455091
 0.01 452068 453066 452064 452063 451061 449061 447059 446060
      446063 445065 446067 447069 448070 450070 452068 452068
 0.01 445747 445742 442741 441744 439746 436747 434749 433754
      433756 433761 434764 438765 441763 442759 443757 444753
      444749 445747
 0.01 348210 348209 346207 345206 343204 341203 340202 338201
      338200 336200 336202 336203 337205 337206 338207 339208
      340209 342209 344211 346210 348210 348210
 0.01 230969 234976 239983 244986 248988 250987 256984 260982
      265982 273983 279983 294984 299981 305975 309970 313967
      317969 321969 324967 330965 336962 342955 346950 350943
      348941 339936 334937 329938 325938 321939 317941 311941
      308938 305929 304920 303917 303912 301907 298904 295902
      292901 288904 282909 278912 274913 267916 263920 255922
      250923 247926 240938 234949 230961
 0.01 282800 280798 277798 274798 272797 268797 264798 261798
      257799 257801 259802 261803 265803 268803 272802 276802
      279801 282800
 0.25 515269 517264 516258 514248 510234 503219 499214 495209
      487208 479207 469211 462212 456214 450216 444217 430220
      426224 427227 426231 419233 412233 407237 405239 404243
      408247 416251 422251 428251 442249 455248 461249 470251
      476255 481260 491272 499282 506284 509283 510280 515269
 0.25 523195 523189 523187 519181 516177 510173 504171 500173
      499175 501181 505187 508192 513197 516198 521197 523195
 0.25 519750 519740 517730 515722 513715 510709 506704 503699
      500693 498685 494679 490676 486674 480673 476674 474677
      474692 474701 472710 471716 470719 471723 473730 474737
      474742 473756 472764 472775 475790 477797 481804 484808
      488808 495797 500795 505797 506790 506783 507778 509766
      511759 515755 517756 519753 519750
 0.25 502257 499248 496242 493235 489228 481225 476224 475225
      481230 484234 488235 492241 496249 500256 502257
 0.25 448116 450112 450106 450101 448098 440097 437098 428088
      425089 426093 429099 429101 427103 424105 423108 421112
      418112 412110 407101 405107 401112 398118 396122 393123
      383126 378130 375137 375141 377144 382146 384147 382150
      380158 381161 384162 389160 395159 398157 400155 403154
      406155 408152 404150 405146 407137 408133 409130 412127
      417122 420120 422122 425124 428121 431118 435114 440115
      445117 448116
 0.25 377196 377192 376191 371187 366184 360183 353184 349187
      348194 352195 355188 362190 367192 373195 377196
 0.25 334167 332166 330165 329165 328166 330168 332168 334167
 0.25 290958 291953 291946 290939 286932 281929 271928 264929
      256932 252935 246941 242946 235957 234962 235968 240972
      248974 253974 263974 270976 277976 283973 287967 290960
      290958
 0.50 514266 515258 513251 508237 498217 495214 488211 481209
      475211 467215 458216 453217 449220 445220 443222 443223
      446225 451224 456225 460229 459231 449234 439238 434239
      428237 422236 418236 414240 414244 416246 422248 428248
      438245 441244 447244 457244 470245 478251 485258 500279
      504282 507280 507273 506266 499257 493244 489240 487238
      483240 481235 478230 474230 468232 463228 469220 473219
      478220 488224 495237 501246 505256 506261 509267 512268
      514266
 0.50 446111 445109 444106 443106 442104 441104 439104 437104
      436105 435107 436109 437110 438110 440111 442111 443112
      445112 446111
 0.50 398145 399143 399141 398140 397139 395139 394140 393141
      392142 391144 391145 390146 391148 392151 394149 396148
      396147 398146 398145
 0.50 371190 369190 371190 371190
 0.50 287958 288949 286943 282938 277937 265934 258935 254938
      245945 239954 237960 238965 243968 250969 261968 268970
      272972 275973 278972 281968 287958
 1.00 511260 510253 509246 506240 503234 500228 498222 494220
      493225 493230 496236 499240 503246 505252 508258 511260
 1.00 504276 504271 503268 500263 497257 494251 491245 488241
      486241 485245 485251 488256 491261 494267 497272 502277
      504276
 1.00 478243 479241 479238 479237 478236 478234 476233 474233
      473234 472236 472239 473241 475242 476243 478243 478243
 1.00 459237 458236 457236 455236 453236 451236 449236 449237
      449239 451240 452240 453240 454239 456239 458239 459237
 1.00 282956 282950 280947 273945 266943 259941 253943 248947
      243954 243960 250962 259962 266961 276961 279959 281957
      282956
 1.50 502272 501267 499263 496259 494254 492250 490245 487244
      487249 489255 491258 494263 496267 499271 502272
 1.50 506245 504241 503238 501235 500232 499230 498227 496224
      495228 495231 496234 499237 501239 502241 505244 506245
 1.50 265954 265950 263948 261947 257946 254946 252947 249950
      248953 248956 250957 252958 255958 257958 261956 263956
      265954
 2.00 496262 496261 495259 494258 493256 493255 492253 492252
      491250 491249 490250 490252 491255 491256 493258 493259
      494260 495262 495263 496262

$$





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