000
FXUS04 KWBC 182005
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 19/0000 UTC THRU JUN 22/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...PAC NW TO THE NRN ROCKIES...

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SGFNT UPPER LO INTO THE
PAC NW BY MID PD..WITH CONCURRENT SFC CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED IN THE
LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES.  THE RESULTING INTENSE MID LVL COOLING AND
STGLY DIV FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO A LONG DURATION HVY RNFL EVENT
INVOF THE NRN ROCKIES AND MODEL QPFS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS
SCENARIO.  BLENDED A COMBO OF TDAS GFS/UKMET/18/00Z ECMWF FOR THE
FCST GIVEN THE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN THEIR GUIDANCE
THERE.  MEANWHILE THE VRY CD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK LLVL
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO CONTG SHWRS OVR THE PAC NW WITH AMTS
MAXIMIZING INVOF SWRN OR.

...SRN NEW ENG SWD ALONG THE SE ATLC COAST AND THEN WWD ALONG THE
GULF COAST...

SHRTWV ENERGY EMBEDDED IN A BROAD UPPER TROF WORKING ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE NATION IN COMBO WITH ITS ASOCTD FRONTAL ZONE OR
PRE-FRONTAL TROFS SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHWRS ACROSS THIS
RATHER LARGE AREA.   MODEL QPFS IN GNRL AGREEMENT WITH MAXIMIZING
TOTALS OVR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AREA WHICH APPEARS A GOOD FIT TO
BOTH THE PSN OF THE CDFNT AND FVBL RT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS THAT
SHOULD BE IN PLACE THERE.  WHILE THE MODEL QPFS ARE NOT IN EXACT
AGREEMENT..THE NON NCEP MODELS ALSO APPEAR TO EMPHASIZE AREAS
INVOF THE FL PNHNDL AS WELL AS SERN TX/SWRN FOR MORE ORGANIZED
SHWR ACTVTY AS THE LLVL BNDRY HANGS UP INVOF THE GULF COAST.

...NRN TO SRN PLAINS...

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT BTWN MODEL QPFS HERE AS PIECES OF
ENERGY MOVG THRU THE CNTRL U.S. RIDGE TAP A SLY LLVL MSTR RETURN
TO INITIATE AREAS OF SHWRS.  HOWEVER...TO WHAT EXTENT THESE
IMPULSES CAN OVER COME RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS ALOFT TO INITIATE
ACTVTY IS SPECULATIVE.  MORE OR LESS BROAD BRUSHED LGT PCPN TOTALS
ACROSS THE AREA CONCENTRATING THE HEAVIEST TOTALS INVOF THE
CO/KS/OK BORDER AREA WHERE AN APCHG WEAK IMPULSE AND LEFT FRONT
REGION JET DYNAMICS COULD ENHANCE SHWR DVLPMNT LATER THIS EVNG AND
TNGT.

DAYS 2/3...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...

A STRONG MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC LOW WILL ROTATE SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON DAYS 2 TO 3. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND WILL
DEEPEN BELOW 1000 MB BY THE TIME IT REACHES EASTERN MONTANA BY
THURSDAY MORNING WITHIN A DIFFLUENT REGION EAST OF THE UPPER LOW.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE LOW WILL MOVE/REDEVELOP NORTH
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND WEAKEN AS ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND THEN SOUTH
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVIEST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS
EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED A
HALF INCH TO NEAR AN INCH NEAR THE MONTANA/ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. A SMALL AREA OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINS ARE NOTED IN THIS AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR LESS OVER A 3 HOUR PERIOD...SO THE CHANCES
ARE SMALL.

WHILE ONE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW AND
MOVES INTO ALBERTA WITH WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
FALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO FALL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MODEST WITH AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY .25
TO .5 INCHES FROM EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI NORTHWARD ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.

BY DAY 3...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ROTATING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD SEEN IN BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF.
MEANWHILE...THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TO MOVE THE SYSTEM MUCH FASTER
THAN THE CORRESPONDING MODELS...EXCEPT THE LATEST SREFMEAN...WHICH
IS NOT TOTALLY UNEXPECTED. GIVING MUCH MORE WEIGHT TO THE
ECMWF/GFS...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR DAY 3 HAS PRETTY LOW
CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHERE
THERE ARE LOTS OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...TWO AREAS OF
RAINFALL GREATER THAN 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED...ONE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE OTHER ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN IOWA.  WITH THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...A MODEST SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WITH A CONVERGENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR RAINFALL/CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP.  A LOW LEVEL JET WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KTS IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON BOTH DAYS 2 AND 3
AND COMBINED WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE FRONT INTO THE REGION
WILL LIKELY FIRE CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT AM UNABLE TO PINPOINT SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.


...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AS A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON BOTH DAYS.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED CONVECTION AND SOME CONVECTIVE LINES
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
ACROSS FLORIDA WITH AREAL AVERAGED TOTALS OF GREATER THAN .5 INCH
LIKELY EACH DAY WITH OBVIOUSLY HIGHER LOCAL AMOUNTS.

SULLIVAN/KOCIN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 541202 540199 540194 541181 543172 544156 540139 539132
      538128 537122 534117 528104 519089 517086 514084 510078
      508075 504074 497070 492067 485066 475066 470071 468072
      465078 463080 462086 460093 458101 458106 459109 457114
      447127 442132 436135 433143 431152 429154 426152 425147
      425142 425136 428131 429128 431124 435120 439117 440117
      444113 444109 438108 429115 422130 414157 413172 412178
      415186 413193 411199 408200 403202 395202 392202 393206
      394210 400213 402216 405218 410223 411228 408232 402235
      399242 399246 401248 405253 409258 411262 415264 422267
      425265 429265 435263 439260 449252 456249 463248 469248
      474249 478250 485254 488261 493272 501282 507285 510281
      520274 526257 526252 525247 525246 525242 525237 527234
      528233 530231 532229 534227
 0.01 444633 433628 429627 423628 415634 411639 408645 404649
      400656 394668 387682 383689 379695 371701 368700 364703
      358707 353712 346723 338736 330750 327755 324761 320772
      317779 315786 312793 309796 304798 290804 279802 268795
      263793 255795 250796 246800 244805 243811 243815 248820
      249827 250831 254833 264833 276832 284832 288833 289837
      290847 289849 289854 294870 294879 294887 292903 291919
      290931 287944 283958 283967 285970 288972 292970 297966
      301961 307955 309954 313954 317957 322962 326968 329973
      330975 334974 338970 339963 337953 333946 325934 324932
      325929 326922 324904 325897 324888 325884 324878 325874
      327871 333860 337849 341833 344827 348825 351826 355823
      359816 362810 364801 366799 368802 367807 368810 371809
      375803 377799 379798 382791 383789 386790 386795 385798
      386802 385818 382837 380845 378851 377859 374865 372873
      372878 371884 372891 374898 381888 382881 384876 386872
      389869 392869 395870 399875 402878 402875 403866 402856
      403848 401837 404818 405813 405808 406804 412774 414768
      413762 414759 417749 420741 427728 432710 435695 438677
      440666 440661 440654 443648 444642 444633
 0.01 507929 505915 503906 499898 494899 490901 485908 482913
      478922 478926 479932 481934 483940 485942 487948 491953
      494956 497956 500954 502950 505943 505936 506930 507929
 0.01 462958 461950 458946 452948 447952 432955 425955 420953
      402940 394933 388935 386939 388956 390961 393968 395972
      396977 392984 389989 386992 371979 367980 363985 358984
      353985 350990 349994 349999 346002 342002 339001 330001
      324005 322009 334025 336028 335031 332035 328040 330046
      337052 344051 349048 353046 359048 363051 369051 382052
      389052 395054 408051 415051 418054 426062 430065 438068
      442071 445073 448074 455073 458068 459064 457058 456051
      456035 454028 453018 451998 451991 453986 455981 456975
      460966 462958
 0.25 535191 536182 536177 534168 532161 526151 521140 518131
      514115 511105 508100 503095 498096 494099 491106 489112
      486118 484121 478123 474124 471127 469135 466136 460136
      455138 452142 445148 442150 440157 445167 448178 445185
      446191 451193 459189 466183 469180 473178 478181 482185
      485188 487194 487201 484205 482209 482213 491220 498231
      502242 506251 508255 511256 509252 509250 510248 512251
      512255 512251 511246 513242 514233 513228 507216 505211
      505205 508204 513207 515211 517215 521218 525217 529213
      532207 533198 535191
 0.25 406709 405704 403703 395704 390707 381712 370721 357733
      347744 342749 339757 328781 316807 311818 305830 299841
      297847 297856 300876 301891 300905 299920 296933 291948
      291954 296956 302953 307948 313943 315937 313918 313903
      313896 315887 316880 315869 315854 314848 312839 313823
      318818 319817 322821 327825 331823 336819 340814 345808
      349801 354795 357789 361783 363775 367764 371758 378757
      382755 386752 392746 398733 401728 404724 405721 406712
      406709
 0.25 455227 456221 455217 446213 442211 438212 432213 427219
      426224 426229 425234 419238 418241 418244 421248 426249
      432248 439247 444244 448242 451238 453229 455227
 0.25 417975 417971 416971 414972 416975 417975 417975
 0.25 395035 396031 395027 393024 389013 384006 376000 372998
      367998 363001 361005 359010 358016 361019 365022 371026
      374029 380032 389034 395035
 0.25 280816 278815 276815 274814 272816 272818 273819 276819
      278818 280816
 0.50 530184 532179 531173 528164 524157 520151 516146 512139
      507123 503117 499117 498119 493127 487129 482131 479133
      477136 477138 481141 482145 480148 467143 461144 456148
      452153 450156 449160 451168 453171 456168 460164 461165
      463169 463172 461174 456178 455181 457184 462183 464181
      469175 475172 480177 486183 491187 493196 496198 500197
      502195 506194 513199 519201 522201 526196 530184
 0.50 440235 440233 440231 440227 439225 437226 435228 435229
      434233 434235 434237 436239 439239 440236 440235
 0.50 387726 385724 381725 375729 371733 366736 361742 357745
      353749 348756 340769 336777 334786 332793 331802 337805
      341801 343798 348783 351777 355778 358777 359773 366758
      369752 376744 380738 386730 387726
 0.50 312868 312861 311854 309848 306843 303847 301851 301858
      301861 302868 303874 306880 308882 310886 313884 313878
      312871 312868
 0.50 311938 310932 308925 307919 305914 303919 302924 301927
      299932 298937 297941 296944 295951 299951 302949 306946
      309942 311938
 1.00 524173 517157 513154 509152 507155 514166 513168 510166
      505160 491158 486156 482156 475155 470153 467153 467155
      468162 481169 489177 496180 498181 500184 503186 507186
      513185 517179 518177 521176 524173
 1.50 500173 501168 499166 496166 493166 490165 488166 488170
      489171 492174 495174 498173 500173

24HR QP VT 21/00Z
 0.01 504263 525244 540180 539082 527000 516945 520911 537870
      545808 535745 522707 511696 498705 487728 485732 475775
      467819 449862 424884 390901 357905 338896 331876 346860
      359848 371823 387805 392791 385787 366800 352804 342798
      343784 358754 366726 360702 348692 333697 319713 284770
      264790 252801 247811 254826 266840 276862 280870 288898
      294922 313940 335945 358967 352994 321033 294050 273048
      259031 252007 262991 279980 284973 275967 259967 247970
      234984 230008 230040 239062 258078 275086 302088 332076
      355052 379038 404031 423032 436036 456063 461096 456119
      442131 436149 438168 450190 455201 445213 434217 433225
      450242 474259 488262 493263 504263
 0.25 496793 490812 489820 491833 503829 517810 529780 527745
      521729 513731 509750 505771 496793
 0.25 477181 479191 473204 467211 463217 468222 473229 484241
      495244 509242 522230 528210 533185 537158 533136 530108
      532083 527049 516016 503970 488919 481904 468905 451917
      427927 413929 404927 392930 383936 378951 384966 400971
      416972 441980 467008 479034 478059 474080 480100 485114
      478130 467129 462136 458144 465157 474174 477181
 0.25 304846 323804 342764 347738 344723 336719 324726 309748
      292774 280793 271803 263810 265817 276826 280829 289836
      295842 299852 300856 301855 304846
 0.50 504226 518210 528186 533161 529137 520122 515115 517097
      522084 519055 510024 498991 492966 481948 474948 469965
      477006 485041 484059 481076 484095 494119 489133 480136
      475143 477157 488179 490193 488205 478211 476218 482228
      491232 504226
 0.50 458963 459959 458955 457951 455948 452948 449947 447949
      446951 446953 447957 447959 448961 450965 451966 454968
      454969 455968 457965 458963
 0.50 415952 415948 414946 412945 410944 407944 404943 402943
      401943 398943 396944 395945 395949 396950 398952 400953
      402955 403955 406956 409957 412956 414953 415952
 0.50 294826 304823 313811 325780 337754 336739 331733 325740
      317754 307773 297787 288799 280807 275809 273812 275817
      279823 289826 294826
 1.00 489097 499115 500127 496143 491160 492173 498187 509198
      520188 527175 530152 523134 513124 504110 506091 513078
      513062 502038 494016 487005 490022 494044 493056 492067
      486077 483081 483087 485090 489097
 1.00 295814 291813 284813 282817 284820 290821 297820 297816
      295814
 1.50 495165 503178 510184 520177 526167 526152 520138 514133
      507136 503141 500150 495165
 1.50 503077 502072 500068 497064 495068 495072 497076 498077
      500080 503077 503077
 1.50 494086 494085 492081 491080 488080 486081 487086 488088
      489090 491092 493090 494087 494086
 2.00 511176 520172 524165 523154 519143 511141 507144 504153
      504166 507174 511176
 3.00 518162 520158 519153 518150 516148 515146 513147 512148
      510151 510156 510161 511164 513165 517164 518162
 4.00 515157 514152 514157 514158 515157

24HR QP VT 22/00Z
 0.01 529242 528236 528229 530222 532221 551121 540982 510878
      499814 508734 515694 506651 480626 450637 420694 403746
      390780 361815 347823 338818 336801 349767 362731 363701
      351682 331684 309704 282725 260742 244766 237799 244818
      263849 272885 278903 289924 310936 332942 355939 377933
      392939 397957 382975 362989 327019 313025 292035 277034
      263017 261993 257975 249962 241962 236974 231008 231036
      243068 267086 298088 334066 363034 385022 405025 427044
      441082 444131 435153 428159 430178 442216 465250 483273
      499281 514278 512275 514274 516276 517278
 0.01 415816 413812 410812 402810 393815 383824 376835 373850
      378859 384860 397852 407839 414821 415816
 0.01 368885 357878 349880 344887 343903 351918 362922 374910
      374902 373895 368885
 0.25 490691 487698 485709 489708 495692 495687 493688 491691
      490691
 0.25 476197 467208 465216 473236 486240 496236 510214 527198
      537163 535083 527003 511944 488838 485828 482820 471799
      458795 448807 436840 414876 403897 404921 420962 444991
      441009 437029 450060 465090 482098 496084 505077 511080
      516096 509113 493121 481131 474145 476163 482187 476197
 0.25 340730 339725 336720 333720 320734 310745 302755 299759
      275785 259801 257810 261819 273833 287841 303841 315831
      324807 330783 340757 342750 340730
 0.50 534175 534168 532159 529153 519143 513144 504160 497159
      489159 491172 503185 516188 530181 534175
 0.50 523049 522033 505971 495908 479848 463840 448862 437887
      427894 413906 419939 436961 461970 480980 493999 502016
      505022 511035 516049 520059 523049
 0.50 465079 479078 487063 489037 483013 472005 460005 453010
      447019 447026 449036 451050 455061 460073 465079
 0.50 306820 310804 315793 315782 308779 297787 287800 277807
      272811 273818 276822 286827 296830 301830 303827 306820
 1.00 465065 471064 476056 476039 471032 463031 459036 457051
      461063 465065
 1.00 459925 457922 457921 455921 452921 448925 449931 454932
      458928 459925
 1.00 426921 421923 419931 423937 429939 436933 434927 426921

$$