000
FXUS04 KWBC 200707
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 20/1200 UTC THRU JUN 21/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AND SE ATLC COASTAL STATES...

FLAT UPPER TROUGHING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION IS ALLOWING FOR AN
USUALLY SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE SFC FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TO
THE SE COAST.  THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD
SHWRS AND TSTMS.  MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
SE ATLC COAST WHERE THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ASOCTD WITH A WEAK
SHRTWV WILL TRIGGER SHWRS AIDED BY INITIALLY FVBL RT ENTRANCE
REGION JET DYNAMICS.  HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS...BTWN 0.5 AND
1 INCH...WERE NOTED ALONG THE SE ATLC COAST FROM GA INTO SRN NC
WHERE DIURNAL CONTRIBUTIONS (DAYTIME HEATING...DEVELOPING SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES) WILL ENHANCE THE COVERAGE DURING THE DAY.
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS LESS PRONOUNCED ALONG THE ERN AND CNTRL
GULF COASTS...HOWEVER THE AVBLTY OF HI PW`S (AOA 1.75") ALONG WITH
THE DIURNAL HEATING AND GULF BREEZE CONTRIBUTION TO THE LLVL MSTR
CONVERGENCE WILL ASSURE SOME ORGANIZED (I.E. AT LEAST SCATTERED)
CONVECTION.


...PAC NW TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE...WITH
THE DEEP LOW ACROSS SLOWLY TRAVERSING THE INTER-MOUNTAIN NW AND
NRN ROCKIES DURING DAY 1.  HOWEVER...DETAIL DIFFERENCES (MAINLY
LOCATION) REMAIN IN TERMS OF THE DEVELOPING MCS/ENSUING MCV ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.  PER
PMDHMD...WPC PREFERRED A NON-NAM MULTI-MODEL BLEND...WITH MUCH OF
THE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE 00Z GFS AND PRIOR (12Z) ECMWF RUN.  ACROSS
MT...THE AXIS OF VERY DIFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW/STRONG AGEOS
DIVERGENCE AND ASSCD ANOMALOUS LLVL MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE SHIFTS N
INTO CANADA THIS MORNING...AS A RESULT EXPECT ONLY LIGHT
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS THIS AREA AFTER 12Z.

FARTHER E ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY...STRENGTHENING
RRQ-INDUCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...WHERE A STRENGTHENING LLJ (30-40 KTS
AT 850 MB) WILL HELP POOL VERY UNSTABLE AIR (BEST LI`S -6 TO -10C)
AND ANOMALOUS PW`S (AROUND 1.75" OR CLOSE TO 2 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL) WELL NORTH AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING...SSW-NNE SFC BNDRY.
AS NOTED...THE MODELS (GLOBAL AS WELL AS THE HIGH-RES RUNS)
CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE TRACK OF THE MCS AND
(THUS) THE HEAVIEST PCPN POTENTIAL...THOUGH AGAIN OPTING FOR A
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE APPROACH WITH SOME CONSIDERATION GIVEN TOWARD
THE GEM REGIONAL AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES RUNS (NSSL WRF AND
WRF-ARW)...WPC NOTED THE HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL (BTWN 1-2
INCHES) ACROSS WRN ND/NERN SD INTO MN...NRN WI...AND WRN UPPER MI.


HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 498289 521283 546187 549149 548105 547052 545040 544031
      543026 541018 540007 538001 537989 534982 532973 527955
      517925 515917 513912 511904 509899 508898 505889 502879
      499857 499845 497834 495825 492822 489814 486809 483800
      484794 486788 487783 490780 499751 504739 510726 520698
      520692 518685 515674 512664 510658 508657 504650 500642
      496643 494646 488657 482672 477682 469703 466715 465719
      463722 461728 460734 460740 460743 460747 459753 458768
      457780 456795 456809 456814 455818 456827 453840 448864
      447869 446874 442885 438896 436900 431903 420907 415912
      408914 406916 402922 400926 393929 384932 373936 367937
      360938 349940 343941 343948 345955 348958 356964 360964
      366965 376965 379967 381971 388978 388982 386984 382988
      377992 374995 371997 362004 353006 350009 345013 341017
      335019 331023 326025 315029 311032 306033 299042 298045
      298051 293059 290062 278068 264065 252065 265079 291089
      297090 301087 305084 310081 315078 319076 323072 335060
      343055 349048 360033 363028 367023 374022 378018 391017
      404015 410015 413017 414022 418023 422026 426026 430024
      438020 445018 452016 466015 472021 475025 478033 482043
      487058 494079 495087 497094 497105 498110 497115 491115
      484114 481110 480108 481105 482103 482098 480090 478086
      474082 468074 465059 461052 457047 455046 451045 445046
      441048 439054 440064 441069 444073 448076 451081 450085
      447091 444095 433096 429099 429104 432105 435109 438114
      440121 442124 442128 442133 440137 437143 436152 438165
      442170 445176 448181 453186 458184 461184 463187 466192
      467195 467199 465205 461207 454214 449215 446217 442219
      438223 439227 444229 449230 451233 449236 443236 441240
      438244 439249 441252 446254 450252 455253 465250 472259
      474264 479271 492279 496284 498289
 0.01 435188 435184 433182 430182 426185 423189 421193 418197
      417204 417209 420214 423211 425206 428203 431196 433192
      435188
 0.01 366699 361687 357681 344681 335683 330689 327693 326697
      324703 321711 318717 315723 312730 308737 306743 302750
      301755 301759 296775 290785 286791 284795 280797 266796
      259795 252798 248802 249809 251811 252815 251821 253830
      255833 257838 260843 262845 265854 271868 278883 281895
      285902 286914 286921 287929 285937 279949 281961 282963
      287963 294960 303957 311948 313944 315942 318941 327938
      331934 330930 328928 324919 322909 320890 321879 323873
      327859 330849 333843 337828 339819 339810 342803 346796
      349789 353781 354776 356767 360753 365735 367717 367710
      366705 366699
 0.01 387790 384781 383780 374791 368800 365803 364806 359811
      357815 353820 348830 346837 345841 344848 344857 345870
      345876 347884 349891 353896 360902 365906 369907 372906
      372904 370895 367891 365883 362865 362858 361851 364838
      369826 371821 373817 375815 377810 381805 385795 387790
 0.25 539182 540169 540160 539141 538124 537108 537098 538089
      539077 538065 537048 535028 532009 528994 520966 509933
      500903 491873 486856 481844 478839 475835 473834 469836
      467839 464844 461855 458869 455883 450894 447903 441913
      437917 431920 420923 416927 413932 411939 407944 403948
      399948 393945 389944 383945 379948 379954 381957 385963
      388968 395978 399979 402977 406977 407980 406983 405986
      406989 411988 413983 415978 418976 420976 425979 430986
      433994 436995 440993 445995 449998 455000 460001 469004
      474008 478011 481018 483025 487039 492048 495053 497059
      500073 501084 502096 504114 504120 502125 499131 495134
      489131 479127 475129 472134 473141 474144 473150 468153
      465160 467165 470169 477179 484191 484196 483201 467213
      464220 466226 470231 472236 475243 480248 488256 494262
      501265 509274 511275 516273 522266 524251 524241 524235
      522223 523217 525209 528203 535194 539182
 0.25 452159 450155 447154 444157 443158 444159 446162 449162
      452159
 0.25 353715 350708 347706 345704 339706 335710 333714 326724
      322733 319740 312759 306777 302786 297794 289800 280803
      269806 264810 264813 268825 271828 275828 280827 286827
      290828 293831 294838 294843 293848 293852 295858 296860
      301863 303866 304870 303875 305877 308876 308871 309867
      312856 313847 319838 322830 330813 339794 343785 346776
      349766 351757 353746 354734 354724 353715
 0.25 311912 311908 311905 310902 310899 308896 306893 306892
      303891 300892 299895 298896 298898 298902 298905 298908
      299911 300914 301917 302920 303923 306923 308919 309919
      310915 310914 311912
 0.25 310059 310058 307058 307059 308061 310059 310059
 0.50 533185 535180 536175 536164 535150 533135 532121 531106
      532095 534083 535077 535058 533042 531026 529013 526000
      522988 517978 513968 508951 505932 501921 497909 493900
      489893 488890 485875 480861 476856 473855 470857 465860
      462865 460877 455896 452907 449916 447921 443925 441927
      438928 434927 428927 422930 417936 414946 413950 413956
      415960 420963 426967 434972 443977 459988 464993 471998
      479004 483008 485013 488023 489032 491038 497048 500054
      500058 502066 505071 509079 511084 513087 513091 509101
      508107 508112 509117 509123 507129 503132 499137 494139
      489136 486134 482133 477132 476137 479143 481146 481150
      473158 473162 474166 480173 486182 488186 490191 491196
      491201 489204 487206 483207 473212 470214 469219 476225
      480230 482235 488243 498249 506253 509255 512254 517253
      519252 520247 520239 519232 515223 514209 515201 516195
      521190 529188 533185
 0.50 520087 520086 519082 518077 517076 515077 514082 515086
      515091 517094 520091 520087
 0.50 349726 345718 341716 338717 335721 332726 327735 322747
      315768 311779 307788 296809 301816 304822 307829 311832
      314832 316830 321820 326811 332801 338791 343778 345768
      347757 348744 349729 349726
 0.50 401970 400966 399963 398959 397958 396956 394954 392953
      391953 390953 388956 388957 389960 389961 390964 391968
      393970 394971 396973 399973 401970
 0.50 284811 282810 279810 277812 275815 275816 274818 276819
      278818 281816 283814 284811
 1.00 532175 532166 532160 528145 524131 522130 519131 514133
      507138 498145 496149 494158 493162 490166 487165 488170
      489172 495175 503181 509180 512175 516174 521176 527178
      530177 532175
 1.00 502224 503220 502217 501214 500212 497210 494210 492212
      491212 488212 485212 482213 479215 477216 478218 481220
      483223 484223 486226 489227 492228 495229 498229 499228
      501225 502224
 1.00 508012 508999 506988 504967 501943 500936 498931 494923
      490918 485914 480912 476907 474900 474895 474888 474881
      473875 470871 467872 465875 463879 463886 463906 466913
      465920 461928 460932 460937 464944 465949 463950 461950
      458947 454943 448940 445943 442951 442957 444962 448965
      454969 462979 467985 471989 473991 477990 483993 490007
      495014 499019 504016 508012
 1.00 342741 341735 339734 335740 329751 323766 318777 313789
      308801 310807 313811 317811 323805 328799 334789 339776
      341768 342760 341745 342741
 1.50 528169 528164 526154 525149 523144 521140 518139 512139
      507142 503145 501150 502156 504164 507167 511166 516166
      519169 525172 528169
 1.50 503990 501976 499959 497941 495936 491932 488934 486939
      480950 474960 472964 475970 482976 490981 494985 496991
      497997 501999 503995 503990
 1.50 493221 490218 487217 485219 487221 490221 493221 493221
 1.50 454956 454951 453947 452946 449946 446948 445949 445953
      446957 447958 450960 453959 454956
 1.50 335771 333768 330769 326775 324778 323782 321785 319789
      317794 315798 316801 317802 322799 325797 328792 331788
      333785 334780 335774 335771
 2.00 524159 523154 523153 522149 521146 518144 515144 512144
      509146 508146 506148 505150 506153 507155 508158 511158
      514160 516162 517162 519164 522163 523162 524159
 2.00 493942 492941 490942 489943 490946 493944 493942

$$