Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 291842
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 30/0000 UTC THRU JUL 31/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

UNUSUALLY MOIST SOILS WILL SUPPORT HIGH AFTERNOON SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN KS/OK/TX...BUT UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS HAD RECENTLY DEPICTED DRIER AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
THIS...COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY POOR LAPSE RATES MAY TEND TO MAKE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION RATHER SPARSE OVER THE PLAINS. GREATER
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN NEW MEXICO...SUPPORTED BY WEAK UPSLOPE AND
LESSER INHIBITION. IF A SECOND AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES
FORM OUT OVER THE PLAINS IT MAY OCCUR ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL
ZONE THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN OK AND FAR SOUTHERN KS THIS EVENING.
THE RAP FORECASTS A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM THERE AHEAD OF A
WEAK 500 MB TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS LEANING IN FROM THE WEST. SLOW
MOVING ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BOTH IN NM AND OK/KS...MAY TEND TO
PROPAGATE THROUGH AN INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING OUT FROM NEAR ABQ
TO AMA TO AVK. WARM ADVECTION IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE UP INTO
KS/CO BY MORNING...SUCH THAT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
FORM FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME.

WPC QPF IN THIS REGION REPRESENTS A BLEND OF 30 PERCENT CONTINUITY
WITH 50 PERCENT OF THE 00Z SSEO MEAN AND 20 PERCENT OF OUR
IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE. SOME OF THE DETAILS IN THE 00Z/12Z NMMB WERE
HELPFUL OVER KS/OK...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND DETAILS
IS LESS THAN AVERAGE GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS. PW VALUES
OF 1.0 TO 1.4 INCHES ARE 1.5 TO 2.0 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SLOW STORM MOTIONS ARE OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN...WITH MEAN 0-6 KM WINDS OF 0-10 KNOTS...AND
LOCALLY INTENSE DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.


...ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN CA...

THE GRADIENT BETWEEN INVERTED TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL CARRY MONSOONAL MOISTURE
NORTHWESTWARD...OVERSPREADING WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHERN CA. THE GFS
PREDICTS A MUCH MORE RAPID WESTWARD EXPANSION OF HIGH PW VALUES
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...AND THE 27KM GFS QPF IS SUBSTANTIALLY
HEAVIER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND EVEN THE MESOSCALE
MODELS. WPC PREFERRED A MORE CONSERVATIVE MIX OF THE ECMWF AND
UKMET...WHICH KEPT CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...EASTERN U.S...

WIDELY SCATTERED LOCAL DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND ON THURSDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES UP THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE MOST PROMINENT ORGANIZING
INFLUENCE IS A SHARP NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CARRY
MODERATELY STRONG FORCING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SOUTH...ALTHOUGH
LACKING MUCH DEEP LAYER SUPPORT...SHOULD ORGANIZE PRECIPITATION
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY.
POOR LAPSE RATES MAY GENERALLY REDUCE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT A PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL MAKE FOR EFFICIENT DOWNPOURS ON SMALL SCALES. IN THE
SOUTHEAST A BROAD AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH SEA
BREEZES AND RICH MOISTURE TO PROMOTE MODERATE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND
LOCALLY EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN. THE AREAL AVERAGE WPC QPF IS SIMILAR
TO A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE HREF MEAN...CONCENTRATING
ESPECIALLY ON A ZONE OF ENHANCED 925 MB MOISTURE...INDICATIVE OF
GREATER THAN SURFACE-DEEP MOISTURE...WEDGED BETWEEN EASTERN MS AND
EASTERN GA.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 532005 533997 533989 529976 527965 529952 528936 524924
      515910 510900 508895 506888 503878 501865 497855 492855
      489860 488871 488884 488900 487907 482911 478911 475909
      471908 467905 465903 461903 460908 463914 467930 473938
      477942 480946 482949 484949 486945 488943 489944 492949
      493955 490959 484956 480957 479962 479967 480972 483983
      485987 491987 493984 494980 495973 497968 502968 506971
      514978 520999 522004 524007 526008 531008 532005
 0.01 492674 485673 475675 472675 469677 459683 451690 439697
      434700 431703 422709 401732 388747 383753 377759 370765
      366773 361780 358785 355788 345794 335801 326805 315809
      310810 306809 302807 304804 308795 309791 307787 305784
      302782 296781 285782 278784 272786 269789 265791 260792
      255794 253797 251802 254805 258816 261828 263834 264841
      264855 264867 265878 266883 266889 267899 267910 268914
      269918 277933 281940 286940 290937 295928 297926 297933
      297948 301951 304952 312943 317939 324939 330944 335950
      340954 344963 348972 350980 349993 346999 343002 341013
      339017 336019 336028 339037 326056 330058 333062 325068
      315070 308069 302068 294065 289060 280059 270059 265057
      258053 250049 241046 238045 235047 232050 232055 232062
      235066 241072 260086 268090 276092 280094 282096 283099
      285102 294106 301109 308114 313118 315122 317125 321125
      321121 321118 323118 328118 334121 336124 338127 341132
      340136 338139 334141 328144 324147 326151 324157 321158
      316158 316161 324168 335176 340179 342183 345193 346203
      350204 354207 357210 356207 352199 350194 350191 351189
      355187 358187 363191 370194 379200 383203 388201 385197
      382193 378186 375182 375179 376175 377171 376168 369163
      360151 360140 360134 361127 363123 362119 362112 363105
      363100 364096 366095 367091 367086 368085 372084 371082
      375083 380080 381073 381065 386066 394063 397060 402061
      411062 415062 418060 420058 421052 421044 418040 410039
      408037 409033 414032 416029 419025 420020 418015 414014
      405016 400015 398009 396995 393984 392977 391966 387955
      385950 382948 378942 373936 370938 368940 366950 361945
      356938 350930 345922 339918
 0.01 339918 335916 333915 332912 332903 332899 333896 339892
      343889 345884 347874 348873 350862 352859 354856 355858
      352863 354871 354885 356894 358899 358905 360910 363912
      366912 369905 371893 375883 379872 389858 394850 403843
      417832 447812 455806 460803 463798 470781 479776 484773
      487767 489758 488752 484748 480748 475749 469750 466749
      468746 477732 479719 483714 487709 491703 493692 492679
      492674
 0.01 413781 411780 410782 412783 413781
 0.01 401790 404787 406786 408785 408783 404783 401790
 0.01 347096 347097 347096
 0.01 383029 386027 388022 389021 388019 386019 386020 385023
      382025 381025 379026 377027 376028 376030 377032 378031
      379030 380030 382029 383029
 0.01 371147 371145 371143 370140 368138 368137 367137 366137
      366139 366140 368142 369144 369145 371147 371147
 0.01 370079 368078 367079 368080 370079
 0.01 350152 350150 351148 351146 349144 348145 347145 346145
      344145 342144 340146 340148 341150 341151 342153 343155
      344156 346157 347156 348154 350152
 0.01 328159 328158 326159 327160 328159
 0.01 311049 312047 312045 311043 309041 308041 308040 306039
      304039 302039 301040 301042 300043 300044 299046 299048
      300049 302049 303049 305049 307049 309050 311050 311049
 0.01 276017 276015 274012 273010 271009 269010 265010 263012
      262015 263018 264021 267022 268020 271019 274019 276017
 0.25 520955 520949 518944 516939 514936 509936 506939 507945
      509949 512954 515957 517960 520957 520955
 0.25 483690 481687 478686 475686 471688 459693 437709 426719
      418727 407737 403741 401747 399750 398755 397758 395761
      390765 386770 387774 390775 398775 401771 405766 413753
      417752 423755 424758 426760 434758 440755 444752 449748
      452745 454740 456735 457732 456727 456725 458722 464717
      472708 479698 482693 483690
 0.25 446729 446726 444726 441730 438734 435735 431737 428741
      427744 432742 435740 438738 442735 445732 446729
 0.25 386993 386986 386980 382969 379962 375955 372953 370958
      369963 368971 368977 366981 364987 360998 356008 355016
      352018 347018 344021 343026 343030 345036 345045 344054
      343060 343067 338076 336078 332077 329079 330081 331086
      329089 331094 332098 336102 338103 341103 342107 342111
      344114 348114 348110 347103 345099 344091 351088 355087
      356083 359074 360071 363069 367070 373070 374068 373065
      370062 364061 365057 368041 370032 371020 372017 376015
      378011 379006 386993
 0.25 367185 366184 364183 364184 364185 366186 367185
 0.25 354120 354118 354117 352116 352117 352119 354120 354120
 0.25 357823 356819 352821 351823 349826 348829 348831 347836
      347840 350841 352838 352835 353832 355828 356826 357823
 0.25 343171 344169 344167 343165 342164 342162 340160 338161
      337163 336163 334164 333164 332166 334168 334169 335170
      337171 339171 341171 342172 343171
 0.25 351079 351077 349075 347076 345075 343075 342076 341076
      341078 341080 343082 344083 345083 346082 348082 349081
      350080 351079
 0.25 329101 329100 327098 326100 326102 326103 327103 328102
      329101
 0.25 326107 326106 325105 323106 324108 326107 326107
 0.25 327842 326837 324833 320825 316820 310818 295811 284804
      277802 273800 270800 268801 269806 271808 272811 269813
      267815 269819 274825 278832 281839 283848 284853 283857
      280863 284867 286870 287875 284884 282890 280898 281907
      281913 282919 286920 287915 287910 287905 289904 291903
      292909 295912 298912 303909 307908 310905 313897 320885
      315867 317860 319853 327842
 0.25 320095 321093 320092 318092 317093 318095 320095 320095
 0.25 318108 318106 317104 316103 314103 313105 313106 314107
      315108 317109 318108
 0.25 307087 303081 298078 291076 283076 269071 263068 258064
      248057 241056 240057 241060 251068 261075 274081 286085
      300090 305089 307087
 0.25 291795 291793 289791 287790 286789 285789 284788 282788
      280788 278789 276790 275790 274791 274793 275794 275795
      277796 279796 280796 281796 283796 284796 286796 288797
      290796 291795
 0.25 282819 281817 280817 279816 277817 276820 277821 279820
      281820 282819
 0.50 477694 476690 474690 469693 464695 461696 457699 455703
      456707 461707 466706 471704 474700 476697 477694
 0.50 443713 443710 440711 437713 431718 424725 416731 410737
      408741 407745 412746 415743 421737 429731 434725 440718
      443713
 0.50 382990 383981 382975 380970 377965 374961 372963 371969
      371976 375979 376982 375985 370986 366990 362999 360005
      360009 365013 370012 374008 374001 376995 376992 378992
      382990
 0.50 366039 366032 363027 360023 356021 353026 351024 349024
      348026 349031 347037 348042 348050 347057 345063 346068
      357067 360067 359063 359060 363054 363050 364045 366040
      366039
 0.50 339168 337167 336166 334167 335168 337168 339168
 0.50 348088 346086 344087 343087 342087 342088 344088 346088
      348088
 0.50 343098 343096 342094 340091 338092 338093 338095 338097
      340099 341099 343098
 0.50 338087 337086 336084 336083 334082 334081 332080 332081
      332082 332084 333086 335088 337088 338087
 0.50 316849 313837 312831 312824 308821 303819 295815 292814
      290816 287822 284824 282829 282834 285839 287843 290847
      293850 295858 295862 294868 291871 289878 286887 283896
      283901 284903 286897 290888 295889 296892 295901 296907
      299907 303904 303895 304891 307887 307882 306874 307863
      313856 316849
 0.50 303085 303084 301084 299083 297084 299086 301086 303086
      303085
 0.50 298874 297872 295871 295872 294874 296876 298875 298874
 0.50 285808 284808 282808 282809 284810 285808
 1.00 371999 371996 369995 368996 367998 367999 366001 365001
      364003 364004 363005 363006 365006 366005 367004 368003
      369002 370001 371999 371999
 1.00 362041 362035 359031 357031 354035 351037 351044 350051
      350056 351058 354059 357056 359051 360047 362041 362041
 1.00 302831 300831 300832 300834 301834 302831 302831
 1.00 300821 299821 298820 296821 295822 296822 298823 299821
      300821
 1.50 358047 356045 355044 354044 353045 352046 352049 352051
      352053 353053 354054 355053 355051 356050 357049 358047
      358047

$$





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