Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 252049
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
448 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 26/0000 UTC THRU AUG 29/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...SOUTHWESTERN STATES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE BUILDING/LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM
BAJA/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES..AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MID/UPPER LEVEL
HIGH..WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN
CA INTO ESPECIALLY THE 4 CORNERS REGION DURING THE PERIOD.  THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHWERS AND TSTMS ACRS PARTS OF
SRN CA/AZ INTO THE CNTL GT BASIN.  MODELS SHOW THAT THE WELL
DEFINED H5 S/WV ENERGY NOW VICINITY OF CENTRAL AZ WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD AND THEN A BIT EAST OF NORTH THRU THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN REGION THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..AIDING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND ALSO SUPPORTING THE INCREASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
 AGAIN..WHILE THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW SIMILARITIES HERE WITH
LARGE SCALE MASS FIELD DETAILS..MODEL QPFS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE
DETAIL DIFFERENCE WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS..SO DID NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM CONTINUITY.  THIS LEAD TO
A FORECAST WITH A BIT MORE QPF THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL QPFS..BUT A
LITTLE LESS THAN THE HIRES QPFS.


...NEW ENGLAND..CAROLINA COASTS AND FL...

THE VERY SLOW MOVING AND STILL RELOADING H5 TROF OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WILL RESULT IN A SIMILAR SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND DOWN
INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THIS PERIOD.  A RIBBON OF VERY
HIGH PWS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE..DAYTIME HEATING AND EITHER LEFT EXIT OR RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OVER NEW ENGLAND AND BACK OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS.  THE HIRES QPFS ARE NOT QUITE AS
BULLISH OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE..BUT WERE A
BIT HEAVIER THAN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE..AND AGAIN WPC QPF LEANED
TOWARDS CONTINUITY WHICH WAS BETWEEN THE 2 SOLUTIONS.


DAYS 2/3...

SOUTHWEST TO GREAT BASIN/ADJACENT ROCKIES/NRN-CNTRL PLAINS...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHICH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY/DAY 2. DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED
AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN GREAT BASIN AS WELL
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

BY DAY 3...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE  MOVE
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A CONVERGENT OR WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH WARMER AIR HEADED NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR OVER THE MIDWEST WILL ALLOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY/DAY 3.  AT PRESENT...THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WERE
FOLLOWED BUT EVEN THE 12Z NAM INDICATED A SIMILAR QPF MAXIMA
FOCUSSING ON THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE QPF VALUES MAY EXCEED
AN AREAL AVERAGE OF 2 INCHES ON DAY 2.  WITH RELATIVELY LOW FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
INDICATED FOR THIS REGION. THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE INCREASING QPF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON DAY 3...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/CANADIAN/UKMET AND BIAS
CORRECTED MULTI MODEL BLEND ALL POINTING TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF
HIGH QPF.

SOUTHEAST...

AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE COOLER/DRY
WEATHER OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTOR OF THE US LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO EASTERN CANADA...SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A WEAK SHEARED UPPER TROUGH REMAINING FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.  WITH A STRONG RIDGE OFF
THE EAST COAST...A LINGERING AND WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND EVEN EXTEND AS A
WINDSHIFT LINE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.  SCATTERED CONVECTION
OCCURS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH
HEAVIER QPF ACROSS FLORIDA AS A MULTI MODEL BLEND PROVIDED A BASIS
FOR THE FORECAST.

BURKE/KOCIN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 540853 540845 540839 536831 530824 524820 509817 506817
      505814 504804 509794 510788 511783 509766 503759 500759
      497758 488754 479749 471744 468741 466737 460731 457728
      462726 465724 470722 479720 498720 503719 506722 510722
      514720 518717 524715 526709 526703 525696 522694 516688
      513684 510679 505670 497665 489663 485665 481664 475660
      467658 460659 452662 448665 445668 445671 443673 437674
      425677 419679 415682 407686 387698 379703 371709 357721
      345732 335745 324760 318768 314775 309782 301787 295790
      288791 282792 278795 273795 273791 275782 275776 274769
      272766 270762 264766 259771 253776 249783 243790 235793
      233794 232797 231800 233806 234812 238822 243823 246827
      252830 256829 261829 267835 273842 275848 275855 271863
      264878 258894 254903 251913 250923 250936 252947 255958
      259964 267969 274973 277978 279981 283985 286987 295992
      310991 313992 317992 319988 319983 315976 310969 303962
      296956 291949 288945 283943 280939 277935 270927 267924
      266918 266904 267898 268894 271884 274876 277871 282863
      287857 292849 296843 296836 295832 293830 290829 293826
      298826 300827 301830 300835 298840 299845 301848 305847
      307844 313835 317825 321817 330811 335806 340799 348785
      359769 365764 370756 377750 384741 390735 393732 397733
      409731 420729 430731 436730 439731 444730 446732 443734
      439735 436738 431745 426752 423761 421771 421778 419784
      416793 413804 413818 413823 416824 418823 420818 423813
      426808 429808 431809 435811 435816 432820 433822 441827
      438837 440839 443837
 0.01 443837 451831 456833 459839 446847 440855 436866 438868
      443868 446866 448865 452862 460856 464853 467853 468856
      464867 462873 463881 465884 468885 474876 480868 486867
      492867 501871 505874 509875 513877 517875 522874 527871
      533864 536861 539856 540853
 0.01 454132 454127 454122 455109 455100 453097 451094 446093
      438088 433089 429086 429079 430076 433076 439077 442080
      445082 448080 450078 449073 445067 442062 439059 432056
      427053 425050 422046 418045 412044 408046 402050 399052
      395050 392046 388044 382049 377047 372048 362049 355054
      353057 348059 343058 339056 334057 334060 335061 339063
      342066 344068 343070 323074 316077 310081 304085 296083
      285082 278077 269074 259070 250068 249069 250073 255079
      260084 264087 269088 274088 276088 278090 280094 284095
      288098 290102 292105 292112 292119 295120 299122 303124
      309128 316133 319136 321139 325148 327151 324153 319154
      313153 310154 311158 318162 324166 333169 341170 357160
      361161 365162 368161 369156 365150 362150 362148 370143
      377146 384144 388148 391152 396159 399162 401162 409161
      416159 420157 422153 424150 425142 424138 423135 424132
      427131 429135 433143 437146 442148 446147 449141 454132
 0.01 400711 398710 396711 394712 393713 393714 391715 390716
      390717 388718 387719 387721 387722 389723 390722 392720
      394719 395717 396714 397714 398714 400711
 0.25 502700 503694 502689 498682 494677 489674 483672 477672
      470674 464678 459683 453687 447690 443696 441701 445706
      450709 456711 462712 470711 476709 483709 489709 493709
      496707 501703 502700
 0.25 425796 425793 425794 423796 425796 425796
 0.25 411112 411104 408098 404103 402105 397105 389103 385103
      382105 377107 376103 377098 378095 380093 386090 388087
      388084 387078 386074 381071 373069 364069 362069 364072
      368077 371084 372087 371091 365094 362094 358095 358103
      360106 362107 362112 358112 353110 348109 345107 343105
      339104 333107 332110 333113 336119 340126 342129 345131
      353132 359129 363129 366130 373131 377132 382128 395121
      411112
 0.25 352760 351757 348758 345763 340773 339777 338773 336771
      333770 330772 326776 320786 316797 313802 316803 318802
      326794 331791 336786 340784 345779 348775 350769 352760
 0.25 330164 329163 327163 325162 324163 325163 327164 329164
      330164
 0.25 321104 319103 317103 315105 317106 319106 320106 321105
      321104
 0.25 290816 290812 288810 284807 278806 272805 265805 262806
      260809 261813 266816 272818 277819 283820 288818 290816
 0.50 496696 493684 490681 486679 483678 478680 470684 464691
      458699 456702 459705 467705 477703 486702 491702 494699
      496696
 0.50 393114 393112 391110 386109 382112 378114 374114 370115
      367118 366120 366124 370124 373124 378123 383122 386120
      388118 392115 393114
 0.50 381081 382078 381077 380076 379076 378075 377076 376078
      376080 376082 377083 379083 380083 381082 381081
 0.50 351123 352121 352119 351118 350117 349116 347114 346113
      344114 342116 342118 343120 345122 346123 348124 350124
      351123
 0.50 329783 330781 329781 328781 327783 326784 325785 325786
      324788 324789 326788 327786 328785 329784 329783
 0.50 282815 282813 280811 278810 276809 275809 273809 271809
      269809 267810 266810 266812 268813 269814 270814 271815
      273815 275816 277816 279816 281816 282815

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 498719 498709 496700 494693 492687 488676 483669 479663
      476660 471658 467659 463657 459661 456662 456666 454668
      446675 442679 442684 444689 446690 446694 443698 439699
      434703 432710 432716 432721 430723 424728 422730 425732
      422751 427762 428766 426772 425777 420780 414783 412786
      409791 407796 408801 410805 411805 414809 412815 411822
      413826 417826 419822 423820 425824 428826 432823 439815
      443808 446803 450799 454796 459799 468801 472794 474783
      480772 482759 483753 485748 491747 494743 498719
 0.01 496995 496985 495977 494969 492962 490959 489959 487968
      485974 484985 485995 486002 486010 490007 493001 496995
 0.01 476154 476147 473142 464134 461130 461125 462116 462110
      468105 466093 462086 459083 458076 455073 452067 455061
      458057 468035 469031 469026 468020 469012 468004 467998
      467981 466975 466966 466947 464945 464940 461936 457934
      451935 447935 442933 437928 434929 430933 426936 423939
      411937 407935 405936 403940 395944 390946 385949 374965
      377968 382968 387970 392971 389976 382985 370003 366011
      363015 359017 352022 348028 347036 348043 350048 349053
      347054 334053 330053 330055 329058 335058 338061 341063
      342067 341070 337072 332072 329075 326079 324084 322087
      320088 314089 310087 305085 299083 293083 289086 286089
      287091 292098 304110 307115 309120 312124 316129 320132
      325133 327135 330136 334139 341140 346140 351139 359144
      364140 372133 374134 375137 376143 378147 383151 388154
      392152 395149 397145 398138 396134 396129 398127 400124
      402123 407122 412120 416121 418123 422127 423133 424137
      426137 430137 435148 444150 448149 451147 454143 457141
      462143 464147 470156 474156 476154
 0.01 475727 472726 468727 465728 464731 462733 462738 461741
      462745 463742 465740 467737 469736 471733 474730 475727
 0.01 414015 413012 410011 406013 401014 395014 394012 390013
      386014 379020 374023 372028 373034 375039 379044 385044
      390043 394041 399039 403035 406031 409026 413017 414015
 0.01 371702 371700 368700 364701 363703 355710 346727 340737
      335746 326762 319771 309777 301780 297782 290784 285785
      278788 273791 267791 258788 253789 249792 248804 246809
      244815 244820 246823 251830 255834 260837 270841 278842
      290841 293838 298834 306833 310831 316824 321821 332824
      334821 336814 341807 347800 354791 360781 365775 367771
      367764 366755 365748 361743 362737 368716 371709 371702
 0.01 345180 347172 347167 345165 342160 338159 338164 334164
      331163 325160 320160 323164 325166 328167 333170 340172
      343173 343177 345180
 0.25 491713 491708 490703 489701 487698 485696 482697 480699
      478701 477704 476707 477712 478712 480714 483715 486717
      488717 489716 491713
 0.25 458023 459013 458005 454996 451991 450984 448979 445974
      440971 434973 426975 421978 417982 415986 415992 418998
      425997 429997 432998 436002 438008 438016 437021 433037
      434044 436049 433060 434066 436071 440072 441068 440063
      440058 441051 448043 453034 458023
 0.25 430968 431963 430959 428954 424949 417948 410948 407952
      403956 400959 407960 412962 417964 423968 428970 430968
 0.25 417074 418068 417064 416062 412059 406057 402056 398057
      386060 379062 375061 373059 371056 367054 363056 360064
      362069 367073 370079 375084 379085 393082 398083 404081
      411080 415078 417074
 0.25 358761 357757 355754 352753 348754 342757 339760 325782
      320787 313790 302788 297792 290796 281803 277803 274801
      268799 265799 261800 258804 255811 256817 258823 263827
      266827 269825 276826 285825 293822 299818 305816 312813
      325808 330805 333800 342790 349780 355770 358761
 0.25 356087 356082 354077 350078 345078 341078 337080 334083
      334086 337089 340092 344091 348088 352087 356087
 0.25 350114 349113 349112 348110 348108 347105 346105 345103
      343103 341104 341105 341107 342109 342110 343111 344113
      344114 345115 347116 349115 350114
 0.50 445002 445998 445993 445990 443985 442983 440982 436981
      434983 434987 436989 439990 441992 442995 443998 444002
      445002
 0.50 410073 410070 410069 410068 408066 407067 405067 405068
      403069 402069 401071 400072 399073 399074 398076 398078
      399079 400078 401078 402077 404077 404076 406075 407075
      408074 410073 410073
 0.50 391073 390070 387068 385067 383068 380068 376067 375066
      373066 373068 374072 375075 376078 379080 381078 383075
      387075 388074 391073
 0.50 339775 339771 338771 336773 334776 333778 332781 330783
      329786 328790 328792 330792 331791 334789 335787 336784
      338781 339777 339775
 0.50 326794 325792 322793 319795 316797 311799 307801 305797
      301795 298798 299803 302805 309805 318800 323797 326794
 0.50 278820 283819 287815 286812 282812 279812 278812 276810
      274807 270805 267803 262805 259807 258811 260815 261819
      265821 270822 274822 278820

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 502254 503247 504241 502228 494212 491208 486207 483208
      480211 478225 475227 470227 463230 457235 451242 449246
      447252 445257 442259 442264 447266 450265 455267 463266
      471264 478264 487262 494260 499257 502254
 0.01 514874 514866 512858 508853 506847 506841 505830 504826
      503820 502808 496804 491785 487769 486760 483753 480759
      479767 476782 475801 474810 472820 469827 467831 464831
      462829 458827 452825 448831 445836 441849 436868 435873
      434883 431888 427894 418905 415906 413905 407905 404907
      399910 394915 387925 382929 379929 376931 370934 366938
      359947 354953 348954 344956 342959 339967 333980 331987
      331998 331006 334010 338010 340013 338017 337024 333038
      336042 338049 340055 340060 338063 335064 334062 334058
      332055 330053 327053 322054 319056 321062 320066 318069
      313072 309076 300087 298090 293089 290089 286087 282086
      278090 276092 276096 276100 277104 282108 290109 298112
      304117 311116 316113 319107 322101 328097 332097 334100
      337105 340111 342115 344118 344122 344127 345130 350135
      356134 363132 365132 366128 364118 364113 363110 363105
      359102 354100 353095 354090 351074 351068 357068 360072
      367073 371073 374075 376078 378081 379083 381081 386076
      394073 399076 405072 412068 420059 421057 420053 416050
      413049 411047 408047 406049 403052 399051 397048 395031
      396021 399014 405010 409008 413009 420011 428012 436011
      440009 444005 448000 452995 456988 462979 464976 468975
      474977 477979 480980 486977 491972 493968 495964 501949
      505934 509920 512900 514874
 0.01 504060 506048 504041 501034 499031 496030 486035 475044
      471047 468053 466056 466060 467068 473083 477088 481090
      487086 492081 495077 499070 502065 504060
 0.01 463124 464118 464114 459108 457105 457098 452093 447089
      446084 448078 448075 446072 440069 436068 432070 429075
      423081 418085 415092 416095 418097 425098 430102 434103
      437105 441106 444104 447106 448112 451119 453122 456123
      463124
 0.01 421145 422137 422135 419135 411138 406141 400140 394140
      390137 384135 379135 376137 377141 378147 379151 381152
      386151 388152 390155 394157 399157 406152 409151 411153
      414157 418154 420147 421145
 0.01 410110 411103 408098 406095 402099 398100 394098 390099
      391105 386106 385109 382110 376109 376116 375120 373123
      373127 378127 381124 385120 390119 395117 399118 405116
      408113 410110
 0.01 388795 388792 385792 384791 380791 373792 370792 366791
      364791 362787 361779 363773 366768 369765 372760 376748
      376744 373744 370743 366743 366739 365733 363729 358725
      354723 348722 344724 339728 334736 329746 322755 314762
      309764 304761 301757 296755 294754 290754 287759 281768
      273773 269776 266780 264786 264791 261792 257794 253795
      251797 246805 245809 245813 247815 254823 261831 268837
      277841 289844 294845 300845 303842 305839 308839 315835
      326833 330831 333827 337826 340832 340834 343834 348833
      359826 366819 375812 378809 383803 388795
 0.01 372961 370959 366961 363963 359967 355972 352976 348982
      346989 348991 349989 351987 355983 358978 361973 365969
      369965 372961
 0.01 364021 363016 361012 358008 354011 351013 347015 350019
      352022 354027 357031 359027 361023 364021
 0.01 343011 342008 340006 339008 338010 340012 342012 343011
 0.25 483237 482236 482234 481233 479233 478233 476234 475235
      474236 473236 474238 475238 477238 479239 480238 482237
      483237
 0.25 482894 480892 477894 475897 474900 475902 474902 473902
      474905 476907 477907 479904 480901 481897 482894
 0.25 459947 458923 460901 458891 454889 453886 454881 452877
      448875 444877 440882 436891 431908 426913 421914 416912
      411913 405919 388945 386953 382961 373972 368978 365987
      366992 369993 374997 380003 384003 388001 400993 406990
      417989 424989 427989 429992 436991 439990 443986 450972
      456959 459947
 0.25 356763 354763 353764 352765 351766 353768 354766 356764
      356763
 0.25 329768 329766 326766 324769 322771 321773 320776 319779
      318783 319787 322787 324785 325782 326779 326777 328773
      329770 329768
 0.25 307788 308783 306777 304774 302772 297771 293774 292778
      292782 294792 294797 290799 274799 265800 257803 254809
      255812 258815 265819 273820 282820 290818 300816 305816
      308814 309808 307804 302798 307793 307788
 0.50 454923 454912 453903 450896 448887 447884 444884 441886
      439890 435904 433912 429917 425921 419924 414924 411926
      410929 401938 397943 396953 389963 381975 380981 383988
      384990 387992 391991 394989 403979 409978 418979 431981
      436985 440982 447971 450964 452956 453946 452937 453929
      454923
 0.50 300808 300806 300805 299804 298803 296803 294803 292804
      291805 293806 294807 295807 296808 298809 300809 300808
 1.00 449949 448940 446930 448920 448915 446909 445899 444895
      441898 435914 428926 422931 417936 412940 410942 413945
      415961 417963 421964 428968 433972 436974 439973 443966
      447959 449949
 1.50 444949 444942 443936 443924 444918 443913 442911 440911
      438914 433923 428930 423936 419939 419942 422954 428960
      431962 436961 442955 444949
 2.00 440947 440940 439930 440923 440920 438922 435927 431930
      427935 425942 427949 430954 435953 439949 440947

$$





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