Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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799
FXUS04 KWBC 051900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 06/0000 UTC THRU FEB 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

DOWNEAST MAINE

THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES EARLY DAY 1.  WITH THE VERY FAST NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT---ANY PRECIPITATION THAT LINGERS ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE
AFTER 0000 UTC WILL BE BRIEF WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
TOTALS/SNOWFALL.

SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF HEIGHT FALLS TO DROP INTO MEAN TROF
POSITION OVER THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS
THEY PUSH FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY DAY 1---INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. PW VALUES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SPARSE..BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL GULF COAST.  SUBSEQUENTLY---SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TOTALS NOT
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS.  STILL---WITH THE AMPLIFYING
TREND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MAXIMA OF LARGE SCALE UVVS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW AND SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN OK INTO NORTHEAST TX.  CONFIDENCE NOT
GREAT WITH DETAILS AS MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF
MODERATE TOTALS...ALBEIT NOT IN THE SAME AREA.  THE GFS AXIS IS A
COMPROMISE POSITION BETWEEN THE NAM AND ECMWF..WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC.

A SECOND PRECIP MAX AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MID TO UPPER TX COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF
WILL STRENGTHEN AND PW VALUES WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS PRECIP MAX WILL LIKELY PUSH QUICKLY EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST---WHERE LIGHT PRECIP TOTALS MAY AFFECT.

FLORIDA

SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE DAY 1 ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS PW VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS STRONGLY TO A MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERN DIRECTION.  THIS
IS FROM A COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF
FLORIDA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING
CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND CENTRAL GULF
COASTAL REGION.  HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL LIKELY TOWARD THE END
OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS THE LARGE SCALE UVVS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW AND MOVE INTO THE FL PENINSULA.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY.  THE FAST MOVEMENT WILL
PRECLUDE VERY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS ---WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE WA/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES---THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON COAST RANGE/OLYMPIC RANGE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES FROM NORTHERN ID INTO NORTHWEST MT.

NORTHERN PLAINS

THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  AT THE MOMENT---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP PUSHING EAST OF THE TERRAIN DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 477618 482623 485630 487633 488638 489649 488657 484662
      473671 462679 447683 444684 441683 436681 426672 422669
      420666 421663 420659 421655 424648 431637 437632
 0.01 556037 557026 555019 553009 550001 545989 537978 512928
      498903 500896 501889 501884 503880 502870 501868 501862
      500853 500841 502834 504826 502818 508813 509810 509805
      507784 504775 507768 510761 512755 513752 513746 511736
      506718 505713 504710 502700 497685 494684 489688 486691
      483692 479697 473702 467706 455705 449706 449714 448717
      449720 452723 453729 450733 447734 442735 432744 431748
      432754 434761 434769 435779 439779 441783 439787 423785
      418796 417803 417812 416818 420824 422827 425827 434826
      438826 441827 447827 451827 453831 448838 438844 434847
      429852 427858 428862 430863 441863 443865 443869 442873
      442879 440883 441904 455883 457885 456888 456893 455896
      450909 448916 448925 450927 452928 457927 462923 465915
      470909 472917 477931 481937 484943 488948 490951 491957
      495970 510994 511001 513011 512016 511019 506024 502027
      499033 495039 492046 488052 483049 477049 476059 477062
      477067 478071 481072 483077 481080 477083 474088 474097
      476099 479100 487101 491107 494112 496115 499116 504112
      508107 512100 515096 518090 525079 533072 541065 547060
      551055 555045 556037
 0.01 536212 538196 538188 536182 535175 532171 526165 521159
      515152 508146 503144 499140 494138 491134 484127 481124
      477124 474122 476116 476111 473108 469105 466106 464112
      463118 462122 464127 461130 456130 451131 450135 453138
      454144 449144 444146 438139 435141 435146 434152 436157
      442164 443169 445174 447178 444182 441185 442188 446189
      449190 450193 462184 465181 465176 463174 458171 457168
      459166 464167 468170 477176 479180 482183 487186 489189
      489193 488195 484197 476201 470206 465205 461203 458204
      458207 457212 455212 451213 447214 441213 438214 434217
      426218 423220 422222 422227 421228 417230 414230 412228
      413221 407215 405217 408221 408233 405234 401231 398233
      397238 389243 383248 386252 391254 401254 407256 411256
      419254 430255 448258 468261 478265 483268 486273 490283
      496284 505290 508289 511286 517277 521266 522259 522252
      519239 517234 515230 509222 507218 506213 506207 508203
      515209 521218 525223 528224 530223 536212
 0.01 482229 483227 482225 481225 479225 478225 479226 480227
      481229 482230 482229
 0.01 459108 455100 451096 445096 436095 432091 428089 427090
      429094 432100 428103 428106 430108 429113 431118 434116
      437114 441117 443122 446123 450120 453116 456112 459108
 0.01 375972 374966 372961 367960 362961 354956 345952 334934
      328928 319924 304910 297905 290897 287886 285882 281878
      276877 272879 265886 259893 257898 257901 258908 257914
      254918 253923 253930 255936 256940 254945 254950 255956
      256960 257964 259964 277974 282982 286985 289989 293991
      296993 297996 302996 306994 323984 325981 322977 316976
      319973 323970 328968 332969 337972 345979 348983 353985
      356987 362988 370983 373977 375972
 0.01 352744 350733 346730 338735 333740 322752 318757 312763
      306768 298772 283779 252792 244796 239799 232805 228811
      229822 232829 238834 241836 246836 256834 264831 271827
      280826 288823 293823 296822 306819 312813 322803 327798
      329793 331790 333787 333781 335772 343759 352744
 0.25 532200 533195 532192 530185 528178 525172 522167 518163
      509156 502154 499153 497151 495145 492140 487134 483131
      478132 478134 480137 485141 487146 496153 495156 493158
      489154 479155 473155 469151 464149 463151 465154 473162
      477165 484168 487174 488176 492177 496179 501184 512191
      515195 518201 521207 524208 530205 532200
 0.25 515259 516253 515249 513242 511234 507227 500214 497209
      495206 492204 487203 482204 471209 464211 460214 454216
      449217 442218 438218 436220 435223 437226 444229 456228
      459230 455231 450233 444235 439238 441242 443241 449241
      463243 469243 474247 480250 485255 492266 501277 505278
      509273 511267 512263 515259
 0.25 492240 492235 492229 489224 484223 479222 476222 472226
      472229 475230 479232 481237 483241 487238 489239 492240
 0.25 474644 471636 464636 456638 448642 441646 436651 436657
      439662 442663 446663 454659 460655 467651 473646 474644
 0.25 480852 481849 480847 478845 478844 476843 475843 473845
      473848 473849 474850 474853 475854 476855 477855 478855
      479855 480853 480852
 0.25 428245 429243 428240 426238 425237 423237 421237 419237
      417238 416239 415240 415241 414243 415245 415246 416247
      418247 419247 420247 421246 423246 424246 425246 427245
      428245
 0.25 341963 337956 334952 330949 325945 321942 316939 312941
      311943 314949 317952 322956 327959 332962 337964 341963
 0.25 328768 327764 323766 320769 312777 304787 295794 287800
      284802 283806 286810 290812 297811 300808 305804 312795
      318786 324777 328768
 0.25 296954 291939 289931 290928 290922 286916 285908 283900
      279894 273891 269897 267905 266914 264917 263921 263927
      265931 265935 268943 271950 270957 274962 278963 283962
      290961 295956 296954
 0.25 264802 263798 260797 253799 247802 243807 240810 238813
      238817 238822 240825 243825 248826 250822 254818 258812
      262807 264802
 0.50 527201 529195 527191 524182 520176 515171 511169 507168
      504168 501170 500173 502176 506182 512187 518193 521199
      524202 527201
 0.50 510246 509238 505232 500218 496212 491209 484206 479208
      468213 463215 457219 456222 458224 463225 468221 470220
      474219 488222 491224 493226 495234 498241 502246 504249
      507250 510246
 0.50 494259 493256 494259 494259
 0.50 480244 480241 480240 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232
      475232 474233 473234 472236 472239 473241 474242 475242
      476244 478245 479245 480244
 0.50 330954 328952 327951 325952 323949 323950 325952 327953
      327954 328954 330955 330954
 0.50 285956 286954 286952 285951 283951 281951 279951 277951
      277952 277954 277956 279957 281957 283957 285956 285956
 1.00 503241 503238 502238 502236 501234 500232 500231 498231
      498232 498234 498235 498237 499238 500240 500241 502242
      503241
 1.00 484217 485215 484212 484211 483210 481209 479210 477211
      476212 475214 477216 478216 480217 482217 483217 484217
 1.00 479238 477235 476234 475235 475237 475238 477240 478241
      479238

$$





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