Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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453
FXUS04 KWBC 260635
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 26/1200 UTC THRU MAY 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...
LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE ACRS WRN KS LATE THUR IN RESPONSE
TO UPR TROF LIFTING OUT OF THE SW U.S. TOWARD SRN CO.  AS IT
DOES..BROAD 85 FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 TO 40
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW WHICH WILL ALLOW DEEP
GULF MOISTURE TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWD
INTO THE E/W FRONT EXTENDING E OF THE CIRC.  STG AFTN HEATING
COMBINED WITH DEEP MSTR AND APCHG HEIGHT FALLS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACRS THE CNTL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY SWD
INTO TX PRIMARILY THUR AFTN WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THUR NIGHT AS
HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD.  LOTS OF SPREAD EXIST WITH
MODELS REGARDING HEAVIER QPF PLACEMENT ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA.  THE
ONE AREA WHICH SHOWS SOME DECENT AGREEMENT IS BACK ACRS CO WITH
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE AND COMMA HEAD DVLPMENT...WITH THE 00Z NAM
TRENDING WWD WITH CONSENSUS TOWARD AN AREA OF 1 TO 1.5+ AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS THROUGH CNTL CO MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED TRACK OF MID LEVEL CIRC.  FARTHER
EAST...MUCH OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY ACRS
ERN KS/MO AND WHERE ANY OUTFLOW ENDS UP FOR AFTN CONVECTION TO
FOCUS ON.  00Z WRF ARW AND NSSL WRF HAVE THE SUPPORT OF RECENT
HRRR RUNS IN PLACING OUTFLOW BNDRY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE.  THE WRF ARW IS SOMEWHAT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE REST IN PUSHING THIS BNDRY THE FARTHEST
SOUTH..AND SATL/RADAR TRENDS AS OF 06Z COMPARED TO ITS RADAR
SIMULATION SUGGEST IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE FAST.  WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF 00Z HI RES GUIDANCE...BUT
SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE FARTHER SOUTH ARW...IN BREAKING OUT A
SECONDARY STG CONVECTIVE DVLPMENT LATE THUR AND THUR EVENING ACRS
CNTL/ERN KS PROPAGATING EWD INTO MO WHICH SHOULD BE AIDED BY
DECENT UPR JET COUPLET. STG FORCING COUPLED WITH HIGH PWS AND PSBL
TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINS ACRS ERN
KS/WRN MO WITH ISOLD HEAVIER AMOUNTS NEAR 5 INCHES.

FARTHER SOUTH ACRS THE SRN PLAINS...THE PICTURE IS NOT AS
CLEAR..BUT WITH PWS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
ABOVE..THIS SUGGESTS THAT AS ACTIVITY DVLPS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE
OF DRY LINE THIS AFTN...STORMS THAT CONTINUE TO DVLP DOWNSTREAM
INTO THE DEEP MSTR COULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO POTNL HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING CLUSTERS/LINES.  TOOK MORE OF AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH HERE
GIVEN RATHER LARGE SPREAD..BUT AGAIN PUT A LITTLE MORE EMPHASIS ON
HI RES CAM GUIDANCE.

A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...MODELS ALL DVLP A S/WV THAT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NEWD FROM SRN TX TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR TROF.  FORCING
FROM THIS IMPULSE OVER MSTR RICH AIRMASS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS FROM ERN TX/LA NEWD INTO MUCH OF AR WITH
AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF .50 TO 1+ INCHES EXPECTED.

...OH VALLEY/MID ATLC/GT LAKES...
EWD SHEARING S/WV EXTENDING FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY SWD INTO THE TN
VALLEY WILL ACCOMPANY A BROAD AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS IT WEAKENS
OVER UPR RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S.  WEAK FORCING AND LIGHT 85H FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE LACK OF STG LOW LEVEL FOCUS
SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAL AVG AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT TO MDT
SIDE...THOUGH INCREASING INSTABILITY COULD LEAD OT SOME SPOTTY
HEAVIER RAINS ESPECIALLY NEAR AXIS OF 1.5" PWS AS IT MOVES ACRS
THE ERN OH VALLEY  INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLC THUR AFTN/EVENING.

...NRN PLAINS...
UPR CIRC OVER MT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EWD TOWARD ND THUR NIGHT
SPREADING MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND PSBLY SOME EMBDD TSTMS
ACRS PARTS OF ERN MTN/ND/NRN SD..WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF UP TO .50
INCH AREAL AVG NEAR THE NW ND/CANADIAN BORDER REGION.

...PAC NW...
REASONABLY CLOSE MODEL AGREEMENT HERE WITH S/WV DIGGING SEWD
TOWARD THE PAC NW FROM WRN CANADA. MSTR WILL BE LIMITED HERE..SO
GENLY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 544155 546145 545140 544138 541134 538128 537126 534125
      527124 523123 521124 518124 516127 512131 509130 498124
      488116 480107 475102 472097 466087 459075 452064 443062
      438062 434069 437080 435083 431084 427083 425085 423088
      424092 427099 424104 421104 418102 414099 412093 407093
      405095 399099 395102 387104 382105 376101 373097 371091
      368087 366085 363084 356084 350084 353093 349097 342094
      340094 339098 341102 344107 346112 350123 357127 363128
      367129 369131 372138 373145 372155 371161 376164 381165
      383168 387169 397162 400160 403161 409162 421164 423162
      422159 422151 421142 413141 406139 403136 403132 406127
      412127 416128 420133 422133 424131 428125 431123 434122
      435129 436136 440143 439152 440154 442157 446158 451157
      455159 459155 461149 465144 476142 481146 486151 488158
      488166 480175 477182 478188 487197 491201 490203 486204
      482204 478207 474209 469213 457217 452219 449217 445218
      441222 446224 448222 452223 460226 467226 468224 472226
      472229 471233 467233 460231 455232 451235 448238 450242
      455247 466244 471247 478250 481248 484249 489253 494262
      496270 497273 499274 505266 512253 514246 517236 519229
      521217 526203 529198 532191 535184 538177 541164 544155
 0.01 540874 538841 537813 536794 534788 533781 531776 528772
      523762 514746 513738 509728 504716 498706 492697 488688
      482684 474681 468678 462676 454674 446673 438680 430687
      416721 413726 410730 406735 404739 401743 399747 399751
      402752 401755 398757 393759 387765 382770 377777 375780
      373785 370795 364803 356810 343821 334838 340850 344852
      350851 358855 361858 359862 356866 353869 343882 340889
      331893 323899 316900 312902 304907 302910 301916 298925
      297930 294934 291937 286939 277943 272949 266954 263957
      261961 257970 257974 255977 253980 255984 250986 247988
      244992 242994 242997 244006 248009 251012 258017 268018
      277021 277027 275032 276036 279039 283042 287044 295040
      299038 303034 307028 315023 327015 334009 338006 343003
      351001 357000 361999 366001 369007 374015 375018 375022
      375029 371041 367050 365054 366057 357064 357069 359073
      362076 368078 372083 376090 380096 387091 389089 391091
      393097 394096 394090 399089 402084 407078 414073 417069
      420064 425058 428056 427052 428045 425043 423041 424038
      426034 429030 431026 435017 437012 437010 434008 432007
      432004 438995 441993 443989 448978 451967 453960 454954
      456949 460948 464949 470950 475951 478954 481958 483963
      481966 476967 472969 470972 464976 460979 457983 455983
      455987 456992 457993 455998 451005 453005 453009 451013
      445022 448031 448034 451034 455034 459044 461055 464058
      467063 471066 476070 488081 500073 505066 509054 512046
      514042 514035 517023 517020 518014 524005 526999 529994
      535986 536983 536978 536968 535936 534928 533923 531918
      530916 530911 531906 533903 537896 540874
 0.01 487233 486232 485231 483230 482230 480229 478229 477230
      478231 479233 480233 481236 482237 484237 486235 487233
 0.01 476227 475226 475224 474223 473224 472226 473228 475228
      476227
 0.01 465722 465715 461711 451714 441717 438719 434718 435722
      439726 445732 447736 448741 450745 451753 454756 458759
      461758 464755 463743 465730 465722
 0.01 428731 427727 423728 420729 418732 417736 416738 415741
      413744 416745 419742 421741 424739 426736 427734 428731
 0.01 402211 397205 391199 386197 383194 376188 370183 359180
      357182 359186 365191 370194 373197 382201 385203 390205
      393207 399209 402211
 0.01 335174 335173 334171 333170 332169 332168 330167 328167
      326167 325166 323166 322167 322169 322171 324172 325174
      327174 329175 331174 333174 335174 335174
 0.01 292807 289804 286801 279794 272790 265784 254769 252767
      245768 239773 237777 234781 231784 230789 224807 225813
      227817 234822 242821 246821 250817 263807 269805 273808
      280811 283813 288812 292807
 0.25 520191 521186 521180 520172 517165 518161 521160 523157
      521153 518148 511144 509149 508154 500162 495167 491173
      491178 492182 494185 497185 502186 504189 505194 504213
      506222 509224 511222 513218 514212 514206 515200 518196
      520191
 0.25 496226 496222 495219 493217 490214 487214 485215 482216
      478215 478216 480218 482218 483219 486222 489223 491224
      494227 496226
 0.25 509802 509794 507792 505793 501796 500802 499809 498813
      496817 496820 498820 500816 503812 506810 508805 509802
 0.25 512993 511983 510978 507975 502976 497982 492998 486016
      483024 480025 478023 476027 477033 479042 482050 485053
      488054 492055 496054 500048 503039 506030 508021 509009
      510000 512993
 0.25 496832 496826 495821 491815 487808 482802 477797 471795
      468796 467801 467804 470805 476807 481812 485819 485823
      482826 478820 475816 473815 472818 469821 470826 474827
      478832 483839 486845 490848 492845 494840 496832
 0.25 469115 470113 470110 469109 469108 468107 466106 465107
      464108 463109 464110 465112 466113 466115 467116 469116
      469115
 0.25 466880 467878 467875 467873 467871 467868 465866 464866
      462866 460868 460869 459871 459874 459876 459877 459879
      460881 461882 462883 463884 464883 465883 466881 466880
 0.25 460802 459800 458800 456798 456797 456798 456801 457801
      458802 459803 460803 460802
 0.25 442949 442942 439938 431936 414926 407921 404919 398918
      394915 392911 391906 392902 393897 396894 402893 406892
      409889 408882 407875 407869 405864 399858 393851 394846
      393844 391844 388849 385853 380862 375867 373873 371880
      366888 360892 353898 345905 337912 324923 318929 309935
      301941 293945 287950 284954 282960 283964 281969 279977
      277984 279991 282993 285998 286003 289008 295014 299016
      305015 311009 328002 334995 339986 328973 347948 359949
      366956 368961 369967 371979 374988 377992 380993 390990
      394992 396996 395007 392021 391027 388030 380037 376046
      375051 375057 376064 378069 386070 391072 394069 402064
      406060 409055 409045 410040 413034 416026 421013 423008
      423000 420991 421985 422982 425982 430980 433977 437966
      442949
 0.25 434821 435815 431813 426812 420817 417825 417832 417836
      414838 411841 410845 410851 411853 413852 418848 424843
      427836 431830 434821 434821
 0.25 429771 428763 426758 424757 421759 419764 414774 410775
      407773 402771 398773 395777 393779 393782 396785 400790
      402795 405796 406794 408788 410783 416783 420785 423784
      425781 428776 429771
 0.25 316986 317984 315983 315984 315986 316986
 0.25 260793 258789 256787 252784 248782 246782 243785 240789
      238793 240799 243802 248801 252799 255797 259795 260793
 0.50 509175 509172 509170 508169 507168 506168 504167 503167
      501167 501168 499168 497169 496171 495171 495172 497174
      497175 498176 500176 502177 503178 505179 506178 508177
      509175
 0.50 503016 503008 503001 501001 499005 496009 494013 491018
      491023 491030 492034 496033 499029 501026 503019 503016
 0.50 416959 415944 412938 409933 403929 398927 394924 387923
      383920 381915 382905 383899 386885 388870 386869 384872
      383878 381886 378890 358902 351908 341916 332923 328926
      326932 330935 336936 341939 347939 356938 361936 364941
      368952 371959 372967 374983 376989 378990 382991 390985
      395984 399987 403993 403000 400014 399023 398028 393034
      389037 385041 382045 380053 382059 383062 385065 388068
      394066 398063 401060 404053 404043 404038 402035 402031
      404028 407024 411017 413010 413005 412998 409992 408985
      410978 412970 416959
 0.50 334986 335982 332981 330982 328984 325986 324988 322991
      322994 322997 325997 328995 329993 331990 333988 334986
 0.50 325960 323953 319952 316952 309950 303952 294962 287972
      284977 282985 286989 288995 291002 295006 298006 300005
      304998 310985 312979 315973 323964 325960
 0.50 311943 310942 308942 307943 306943 307944 308944 310944
      311943
 0.50 296949 294949 292949 291949 292951 294950 296949
 1.00 406954 405947 402941 396931 391928 384927 377928 371930
      370932 369936 370943 371952 373958 376972 378979 380985
      384985 387981 393978 396972 401961 406954
 1.00 399057 400053 400048 399045 397043 395043 392044 390045
      387047 386049 385054 386057 388059 391061 395061 397059
      399057
 1.00 366912 366907 364906 358910 355912 350916 346919 342923
      341928 343930 346931 352928 357925 361922 364916 366912
 1.00 308975 310970 310964 307957 301962 296966 292972 288979
      287982 288985 291992 296993 299991 303985 306979 308975
 1.50 395055 396053 395052 394052 393054 393052 393050 392049
      390049 390050 388052 389054 390055 391056 393055 395055
      395055
 1.50 396961 393959 395954 397949 396943 392936 389932 386931
      380931 377933 373935 371938 373949 376958 378970 380974
      384977 389973 395966 396961
 1.50 305975 306971 303968 299970 297971 295973 294975 292978
      291981 292983 291985 293987 297986 299984 301982 303980
      304977 305975
 2.00 391947 391940 387936 384934 380935 376938 375945 376952
      379958 380965 382968 384961 388956 391949 391947
 2.00 301977 301975 299974 297974 297975 295977 295979 295981
      293982 293983 295983 297982 298981 299980 300979 301977
      301977
 3.00 384952 385949 385947 385945 385943 384941 382942 382943
      380945 380947 380948 381949 381952 382953 384952 384952

$$





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