Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 261757
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
156 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 27/0000 UTC THRU JUL 28/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...EASTERN QUARTER OF THE LOWER 48 STATES...

A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL DIG SEWD THIS PD FROM THE UPR
MS VALLEY TOWARD THE CNTL GT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION BY LATE SUN.
THE ASSOCD HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING
THREAT OF PCPN AHEAD OF IT WITH TWO MAIN COMPONENTS.  THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED HEAVIER RAINS WILL TEND TO OCCUR IN THE
INCREASING WAA PATRN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IN ADVANCE OF FLAT WAVE
RIPPING ALONG E/W FRONT ACRS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH
VALLEY/CNTL APLCNS.  CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED TSTMS...PSBL MCS...ARE
LIKELY FROM THE SRN OH VALLEY EWD WITH MOIST WLY NEAR SFC-85H FLOW
LIKELY ENHANCING UPSLOPE AMOUNTS THRU PARTS OF WV/WRN VA THRU SUN
MRNG.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED HIGH PWS AOA 2.0 INCHES OVERNIGHT...SOME
INTENSE SHORT TERM RAINFALL RATES AREA EXPECTED WHICH COULD LEAD
TO RUNOFF ISSUES ESPECIALLY FROM ECNTL INDIANA EWD INTO WV.
FARTHER N...UPR DYNAMICS WILL BE MORE IMPRESSIVE BUT A BIT MORE
REMOVED FROM THE DEEPER MSTR. POTNL FOR SHORT TERM, MORE ISOLD
HEAVIER CNVTV RAINS WILL BE PSBL HERE FROM PARTS OF THE GT LAKES
EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND..AND PSBL SLOWER MOVING AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN
WITH EMBDD CONVECTION NEAR DVLPG COMMA HEAD OVER LOWER MI/WI WHICH
COULD LEAD TO ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES.   GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DECENT
MASS FIELD AGREEMENT THOUGH AS USUAL DIFFER ON TIMING AND HANDLING
OF MESOSCALE DETAILS.  RELIED HEAVILY ON BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE MOST AREAS THOUGH ADJUSTED SOME AREAS
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE FASTER 12Z GUID.

...SOUTHWESTERN U.S TO COLORADO...

WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPR TROF THRU THE GREAT LAKES...THE
PRONOUNCED UPR RIDGE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS PD. LINGERING MSTR
TRAPPED UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF ISOLD TO
SCTD CONVECTION THRU MUCH OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION..MOSTLY DIURNAL
IN NATURE.  THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK S/WV ENERGY
TRACKING WNWWD ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPR RIDGE ACRS NRN
MEX THAT MAY TEND TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY OVER SE AZ/SW NM SUN
AFTN..OTHERWISE FORCING REMAINS ILL DEFINED.  ACRS CO...THERE IS
GENL MODEL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ENHANCED SE/E UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
SWD MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CNTL/SRN CO MTNS
ON SUN WITH PWS INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES OVER SE CO SUN AFTN.
 TSTM ACTIVITY COULD RAPIDLY ORGANIZE DURING PEAK HEATING UNDER
ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE NEAR NE SIDE OF UPR HIGH OVER PARTS OF SE
CO/NE NM...WHILE SLOWLY PROPAGATING SEWD INTO THE LL JET/DEEPER
INSTABILITY.  AS A RESULT...SOME ELEVATED RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS
CAN BE EXPECTED HERE.


SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 514653 500655 494657 486660 472669 466673 459676 452679
      446682 433686 424693 414700 408703 404709 395719 376740
      361757 358763 357772 350782 347787 344794 345798 347799
      351798 353796 356794 359790 363784 372776 374777 373781
      370786 362796 360825 358842 357849 358860 358871 359878
      361881 361885 364884 366882 369881 374886 374896 373913
      373930 375937 375945 382936 384942 384945 387947 409936
      412931 417927 419921 419910 423906 422899 421895 424895
      427900 431905 434912 439927 442934 442939 443940 449935
      452935 454933 459937 462942 469952 471960 474967 477973
      481975 484981 488989 492995 496999 500006 503014 507022
      509030 511048 510070 511079 514083 520091 525097 527095
      528091 530083 531072 532059 532053 531050 532043 531036
      530032 530026 528018 526009 524001 525989 525984 526981
      527970 525963 525955 525943 523933 517919 504889 502881
      500874 499865 497859 496835 495815 494803 495792 495786
      495781 495772 495765 495761 495756 496753 497743 500732
      518680 520672 518660
 0.01 474853 471845 469836 467826 465820 463817 457813 454811
      451814 456818 462822 464831 467841 470850 472852 474853
 0.01 418159 409150 406146 403144 402145 395146 391146 388143
      384139 384135 386132 384125 388121 391115 398115 402111
      396110 392112 380114 375116 371115 369113 366110 365106
      366096 368090 370086 372086 379095 382096 383094 383091
      380087 381082 382078 384079 386084 390084 394078 403072
      406057 406053 404051 401046 398041 395038 392033 390026
      388020 388011 388005 390000 392995 394992 394988 388988
      385986 384982 383973 382962 381955 378951 375949 372949
      369948 368945 364931 361919 360917 357921 353925 352929
      353933 353951 353972 353990 352009 351014 350022 349037
      348045 348053 349059 351066 353072 354079 347080 339078
      333075 330076 322075 318072 314068 309065 298062 286061
      279061 276062 274064 270075 273077 269078 265077 262078
      260081 261083 267086 271089 273093 275099 275102 278104
      292118 297121 304124 311132 316136 321131 334131 337126
      336119 338119 339124 345126 347132 351141 350150 349155
      347157 341158 337158 334156 331150 331143 332139 331138
      325139 321149 319154 320160 321163 324165 328168 337173
      341177 343178 346176 348169 351162 363160 370159 373161
      376162 380162 383158 390158 394163 395168 397169 399167
      403163 409161 414159 418159
 0.01 385193 382188 375184 366181 364179 361180 356179 354181
      350184 352187 355186 362185 370188 376193 378195 381195
      385193
 0.01 317815 317809 315805 312801 310799 302799 297798 294798
      275796 273795 268795 262798 259803 256803 252806 249809
      248813 249817 252825 254828 258831 265835 277842 281848
      285858 287865 288877 289887 291899 295916 299922 301920
      302914 304906 304897 301876 300871 299865 297862 297857
      295853 294849 292845 289841 285836 288829 286825 287821
      289810 297812 304814 307819 312822 316819 317815
 0.25 508682 507677 505674 499674 492675 485678 472685 457691
      445695 437703 433708 431714 428719 424722 417726 408726
      401728 396733 387744 385750 386758 389764 386768 380779
      375790 371802 369809 369818 369835 371843 375851 380863
      385878 388883 391888 398896 402900 406902 408901 409895
      410886 410867 410856 411846 412842 414839 417837 420839
      425843 427848 431855 430861 430866 432868 436871 444875
      448880 450889 449893 450895 454895 457893 463890 468889
      471890 473895 476904 477913 478921 479930 482937 496952
      500957 506961 510965 513966 515965 515956 513947 512937
      508929 503919 498904 493892 490886 486881 477873 469865
      465858 460852 453841 447830 439821 424807 420802 418799
      418796 418793 416790 409790 398781 395775 392768 391765
      391760 393756 402748 408746 415744 418743 420741 424739
      428743 429750 429756 427763 426767 425772 432773 443778
      450780 455779 467776 469777 469781 469789 470797 471803
      475808 478807 480804 481796 481787 482777 482766 482757
      484747 488736 491730 495725 498719 500713 503699 506688
      508682
 0.25 395057 396053 395050 392045 387038 381029 377024 372025
      365032 358038 356044 355051 356057 361060 372059 376061
      380065 383068 387067 391064 394059 395057
 0.25 350117 345098 344093 340089 337088 333089 329090 325089
      319084 309080 301077 296076 290076 289081 291085 298090
      300093 299097 297101 291100 287100 286104 292111 298116
      303118 309118 316116 319112 323110 330107 333106 336107
      340110 344116 348118 350117
 0.25 275807 274807 273807 271806 270806 269806 267806 267807
      268808 269809 271809 273809 274808 275807
 0.25 269824 269822 268822 267821 266820 265820 263821 265823
      267824 268824 269825 269824
 0.50 502684 498682 492684 484690 473697 462698 456697 451698
      447700 441704 438708 437712 439717 441722 445723 450720
      453720 455722 460729 461736 465743 464749 461753 456759
      456761 457765 463763 466759 470747 476739 481736 485730
      490721 493707 498696 502684
 0.50 512955 512949 511945 509937 502925 499919 496911 490898
      487890 483886 480887 480892 480899 483919 485929 489933
      495937 499942 506952 508956 510957 512955
 0.50 468880 451845 447836 441829 436823 428820 414810 407806
      403799 398792 393782 391777 389774 384779 381787 377797
      376801 375805 374817 374828 378839 384856 387867 389872
      392876 397882 400884 404881 405875 406870 406855 407844
      409836 410833 412831 418831 424836 430843 434849 440858
      441863 445867 451870 457876 463881 468880
 0.50 394055 392050 390047 384040 379033 376030 373031 367037
      360043 359047 360051 363055 368056 374056 377058 380062
      384064 388062 391059 394055
 0.50 346112 346111 344109 345112 346112 346112
 0.50 320095 319090 317086 313087 312090 311098 310101 307102
      302103 298107 298111 300114 305115 309113 313108 316103
      320097 320095
 1.00 498924 497921 496919 495918 494916 493916 493919 494920
      495921 495923 496924 497925 498924
 1.00 432838 431838 430836 430835 430836 431838 432838
 1.00 407824 406820 404817 401813 394803 391797 389795 386796
      382801 381807 380815 381820 383830 385836 388843 389849
      392863 394867 397868 400864 401857 402848 402840 403833
      407824
 1.00 388054 386054 384054 383056 384057 386056 388054 388054
 1.00 381049 381046 380042 379040 377037 375035 372037 370039
      369041 367044 366048 367050 370051 374052 377052 379051
      381049
 1.50 398855 398853 398851 398848 398846 398844 397842 396842
      395841 395842 394844 394846 394849 394851 394853 395856
      396857 397857 398855
 1.50 392826 393821 393817 393812 392808 390804 388802 385804
      384806 384811 385815 386819 387822 387827 389830 391833
      392828 392826
 1.50 377044 376043 376042 375040 373041 373042 372044 372045
      374046 376045 377044

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.