Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 230644
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
143 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 23/1200 UTC THRU NOV 24/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

MS VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST

THERE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE MS VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE EAST
COAST AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF
THE NATION DAY 1.  STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE AMPLIFYING TROF WILL BE ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY---NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.  AT THE SAME TIME---A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT
FALLS MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SUPPORT A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS-NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY.  THE NET AFFECT OF THE TWO STREAMS WILL BE A
QUICK NORTH NORTHEASTWARD PUSH OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES---IN MANY PLACES 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN---FROM THE GULF COAST--INTO THE
SOUTHEAST---APPALACHIANS---MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER
MS VALLEY---OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING
LOW.  THIS AND OVERALL STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROF WILL SUPPORT THE AFOREMENTIONED WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION EVENT DAY 1.  ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE OVERALL SIMILAR
WITH THIS SCENARIO--THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST.  DAY 1 QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE
SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS AND HI RES ARW/NMMB SOLUTIONS HERE GIVEN THE
OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.  TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE MODEL DETAIL
DIFFERENCES---THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS
FOLLOWED FOR QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS MOST AREAS AS THIS MODEL HAS SHOWN
THE BEST VERIFICATION OF LATE.  WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THAT THERE
WILL BE A MINIMAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD
GIVEN THE IN SITU HIGH FFG VALUES ACROSS THESE AREAS AND THE
EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION AREAS.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

ADDITIONAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH INLAND INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS PERIOD.
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS
OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADE---COAST AND OLYMPIC RANGE AND INLAND
INTO NORTHERN ID AND NORTHWEST MT.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES

THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND HELP AMPLIFY THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID TO
UPPER MS VALLEY--WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS EARLY DAY 1 FROM THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 535217 537208 536200 536191 535187 532183 530177 523166
      511152 505145 499140 490132 483127 472123 471121 472117
      475112 477106 473103 472100 472096 473088 467090 467095
      463098 425088 426094 429099 428102 424104 421107 419111
      415112 413108 409097 407098 406102 405107 385115 381117
      378116 383120 386123 389119 397115 410119 414121 420122
      423125 428127 436119 442122 444125 446131 448136 446141
      443143 439143 436146 434150 435157 440161 442164 447173
      449179 445183 444186 448190 451193 455193 460186 462183
      466180 467178 470179 475183 480184 484186 489191 489195
      487197 479201 449214 445216 441219 443223 446226 449227
      449230 446235 445243 446248 451250 454249 462248 466249
      470252 476258 484267 490276 496284 499289 503291 510288
      514280 518266 518258 518252 515239 511228 506219 505211
      506207 508205 513208 516212 520221 524228 528231 530230
      535217
 0.01 541939 538910 540897 541892 541885 540870 538856 537837
      536828 535823 533796 532783 532771 531758 529748 522728
      520723 517721 511715 507714 506716 502720 498719 494717
      491718 483725 480728 475727 472727 468724 463719 458715
      448708 436700 421696 413693 404691 401690 396691 386693
      363699 353701 347707 328729 307751 301758 299762 294765
      288768 282775 273780 265784 257789 252790 254791 258795
      260800 259803 257807 258813 261820 272826 276828 279831
      281834 281839 278842 277848 272855 267860 262867 245899
      242907 239917 239920 242921 244924 246922 247927 246929
      246934 247937 250943 253950 261952 267952 270950 283939
      288934 294929 303923 313924 322925 330926 333926 337928
      342934 345942 349949 357961 359964 358967 358974 358981
      362985 366992 366998 364001 359008 353015 350022 353027
      355031 360038 367043 375044 380040 385036 389031 397018
      402011 408001 417989 428975 434968 438964 441960 449957
      458957 461955 464954 468952 472952 475950 480950 484950
      486952 491957 493958 493961 491964 489967 489975 487982
      489987 491995 488005 485010 483015 478025 471031 465035
      439037 439043 443048 446051 449051 454053 459057 467063
      475067 484067 488066 492066 501064 508058 515053 518051
      521048 523041 527031 531010 534000 535986 538965 539946
      541939
 0.01 495244 495243 494241 494240 493238 492237 491235 491234
      490234 490237 491237 492238 493240 494241 494243 495245
      495244
 0.01 489229 489228 487228 486228 487229 488229 489229
 0.01 452080 451075 450074 448072 447070 443068 440068 436069
      434070 434073 436074 438072 441074 443075 445077 448080
      449081 452080
 0.01 427063 425059 422057 414056 408056 402053 395055 391060
      382060 382063 384066 384070 381068 379067 375066 373068
      373072 375080 376083 381084 386089 388087 387083 391083
      393085 398086 401085 406080 412077 415075 416071 415068
      417067 420067 422067 425065 427063
 0.25 530205 527193 525186 525179 523174 520170 513162 513167
      509168 505166 500165 496169 494174 496180 499185 507192
      513200 520208 525210 528207 530205
 0.25 533933 533921 533908 532897 531889 529882 525877 519873
      517870 517866 517857 518850 523838 523828 522817 519800
      511763 509760 506760 501760 495763 490768 485773 479771
      475767 472761 466752 461742 454728 451723 447719 435715
      430713 422713 407716 395717 383719 372722 365726 358729
      347735 326751 309764 302771 292779 287783 283789 285795
      289799 296809 298814 298819 295825 285844 274863 266874
      263879 261884 262891 266896 266901 265904 262910 259923
      259928 261933 262936 265936 269934 274931 277927 281921
      286916 295909 305903 311899 319898 325900 328906 338910
      344912 346917 348921 352923 361934 369941 370950 373957
      377963 383967 385969 389969 395966 404959 417946 437931
      447922 456911 458908 463904 472896 476890 480887 486881
      498873 503872 508874 512879 512891 512905 513917 514935
      517953 518960 520965 524965 528961 530955 531946 533933
 0.25 505279 505269 502261 494250 490242 488240 484242 483242
      481239 479233 475231 472231 469231 467230 468227 471222
      477220 484222 488223 491226 493233 497239 506251 509252
      510246 509238 507231 502224 500217 498208 493204 487205
      476209 464214 458217 456219 457222 463228 465232 465237
      466239 472244 486252 492264 498276 503280 505279
 0.25 490167 488163 485160 481157 477155 471148 466141 463138
      460138 457143 455147 454155 454159 458160 461162 467167
      477170 486169 490167
 0.25 492145 490140 488136 485133 481130 477129 473128 469130
      468135 470139 475141 480140 485143 488145 491147 492145
 0.25 461181 462178 461177 459177 458177 457178 456179 455181
      455182 457183 459183 459182 460181 461181
 0.25 447111 445109 444107 442106 441105 440105 439106 437107
      437108 436109 437110 438110 440111 442112 443112 445113
      447111
 0.25 412071 412068 410066 408066 407066 405066 403066 402067
      403068 405069 406069 407070 408072 410071 412071 412071
 0.25 401074 402072 401070 399070 398071 398074 399076 400076
      401076 401074
 0.50 519188 519185 518181 516178 514176 512175 509173 507174
      505177 504181 506184 507186 510187 514188 517188 519188
 0.50 502275 503270 502267 501264 499263 498260 495257 493254
      494256 494261 495264 497267 498269 499272 502275 502275
 0.50 500235 498222 497215 494210 490208 486207 477210 468215
      461218 460221 463222 467220 472218 476218 488221 491222
      493227 496233 499235 500235
 0.50 504826 504813 501803 500800 497797 493797 487804 482809
      476810 469809 461801 456800 451803 448808 447812 447816
      448823 443825 432817 418816 413817 407821 403822 399821
      394819 390822 381828 372836 369837 366836 366830 371817
      373810 375807 378804 383800 387795 397783 400784 403786
      409787 413784 415778 416762 424752 427753 426755 426765
      432783 433785 434783 437775 439769 442761 443756 445752
      447743 444736 441733 437732 434733 427734 419728 413726
      407725 403726 400728 398731 394734 382740 373739 366738
      362738 357739 351742 341748 331757 312771 306776 302781
      298786 297792 296797 298800 301807 304816 301824 294833
      289843 284853 281860 280867 281871 284871 291868 295866
      297870 295874 292878 288883 280893 273902 270906 269913
      271915 274916 279912 290906 295903 301899 309890 314885
      316883 321882 331882 333884 334889 331895 333900 337903
      344902 352903 357906 367912 372916 374919 375923 377932
      378940 379945 381949 387953 393954 400952 408946 417938
      426930 435921 501842 504826
 0.50 479241 479238 478236 478234 476232 474233 473234 472236
      473239 474239 475241 476242 478243 479241
 0.50 483135 482135 481134 479133 478132 476132 474133 473133
      473136 474137 475138 477138 479137 480137 481137 482136
      483135
 0.50 475161 475158 474156 472153 470150 468148 464147 461148
      460150 460154 462156 465159 466160 469162 473162 475161
 0.50 382759 382757 380756 378756 377757 377758 375760 377762
      377763 379764 380764 381762 381761 382759 382759
 1.00 490216 489214 488213 487212 486212 484211 482211 481212
      479213 477214 476215 477215 478216 480216 482216 483217
      484217 485217 487217 488217 490216 490216
 1.00 436895 436887 434883 430881 426882 419877 419870 421867
      425859 426855 425850 411848 406848 402846 398845 394846
      389852 383859 378866 376869 373868 368864 365856 358840
      359828 363819 366813 369806 368798 369790 371784 370780
      368777 367771 366750 362749 358750 350752 343756 338762
      325772 319778 313784 309790 309801 310807 314815 318830
      320832 319835 316838 306837 299839 295843 291851 290854
      293857 298856 304855 310851 317846 320844 325845 331850
      330859 331863 332866 337870 348869 355872 367885 367882
      365878 363874 365872 366873 370880 370886 377903 383904
      385901 385898 388896 391899 391906 389906 390913 387920
      387924 387929 387936 389940 395945 398945 402943 409938
      420926 428916 431910 433904 436895
 1.00 435857 434856 432857 431859 429862 428864 428866 427867
      427869 427871 428872 430873 431871 431870 432869 432866
      433865 433864 434861 434859 435857
 1.50 414914 414911 412910 407912 403914 400915 395917 395924
      396929 400931 403930 405926 408922 410919 414915 414914
 1.50 365760 364755 362755 356757 349759 345762 328777 319786
      316797 314803 316810 321819 325825 329829 332834 334839
      336848 340851 343856 342861 344863 351861 356858 358853
      356849 351846 352841 355830 359816 357803 358796 357786
      358780 360774 362765 365760
 1.50 308848 308846 308844 307842 306841 305841 303840 301841
      300842 299843 298844 297845 296846 296847 295849 296851
      298852 300851 302851 303851 304850 305849 307848 308848
 2.00 357766 354762 350762 343766 332779 325786 321793 319803
      320809 322812 327820 333826 338832 340837 343839 346836
      349832 352824 352819 347819 344818 341814 339810 340804
      345798 350796 352792 354782 357766
 3.00 343781 344779 343779 342779 341780 340781 341782 343781
      343781
 3.00 330798 330797 329796 328796 327796 328798 329801 329800
      330799 330798

$$




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