Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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109
FXUS04 KWBC 151812
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
111 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 16/0000 UTC THRU JAN 17/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CNTL PLAINS INTO THE
MIDWEST...

A FAIRLY INTENSE/COMPACT UPPER LOW IS FCST TO LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE
WRN MO/IA BORDER REGION BY MON EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK NRN STREAM
UPR TROF MOVING ACRS THE NRN PLAINS.  THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z EC
ARE FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL
AS WITH ATTENDING SFC WAVE WHICH IS FCST TO LIFT INTO MO BY LATE
MON AFTN.  CONVECTIVE OVERRUNNING OF SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SUN NIGHT WITH THE STG HEIGHT
FALLS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE EJECTING ACRS THE NRN TX/OK/KS.
MEANWHILE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PD ACRS W
TX SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING CONVECTIVE LINE ACRS WRN TX THAT WILL
SUPPORT MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS THE LINE MOVES INTO DEEPER
MSTR AXIS..IE PWS AOA 1.25 INCHES AND 50KT 85H SLY FLOW...ACRS
CNTL TX/SRN OK.  AS THE LOW LIFTS NEWD ON MON..A WELL DEFINED
COMMA HEAD BAND WILL EVOLVE TO THE N/W SIDE OF THE LOW SUPPORTING
MDT PCPN AMOUNTS NEWD THROUGH ERN NEB INTO IA...WHILE CONVECTIVE
LINE WITH ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD ERN TX/AR AS MID/UPR FORCING LIFTS
NEWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY AND GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES DVLP OVER
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. DYNAMIC COOLING WITHIN THE
DEFORMATION/COMMA HEAD ZONE SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THE FREEZING
RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING EASTERN
CO/NORTHEAST NM AND INTO PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND WESTERN
KS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.  WITH REGARD TO MODEL QPF
PREFERENCE...BOTH GLOBAL AND HI RES GUIDANCE ARE STRUGGLING EARLY
ON WITH QPF DETAILS OVER ERN NM INTO THE SRN PLAINS WHICH LEAD TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR MODEL SOLN.  THE GFS AND THE
NAM TO A SMALLER DEGREE GENERATE QUESTIONABLE 5H VORT CENTERS ACRS
KS/NEB EARLY SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR LOW.. WHICH HAVE
LITTLE SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODEL SOLNS.   WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE
DVLPMENT ACRS TX...DESPITE HI RES MODELS STRUGGLING WITH QPF
DETAILS AT THE START OF THE PD..THEY ARE FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND THAT IS FCST TO
MOVE ACRS WRN TX INTO CNTL TX THIS EVENING.  HEAVIEST RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR SOMETIME BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z ACRS PORTIONS OF
NCNTL TX INTO OK WHEN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND UPR DIFFLUENCE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE DVLPG SFC LO AS IT MOVES
ACRS THE DFW AREA. FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA A BLEND OF HI RES
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED.  PLEASE CONSULT THE
LATEST QPFHSD FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH THIS EVENT.

...PAC NW...
BY EARLY MONDAY..INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD RAIN INTO PARTS OF WRN WA THAT SHOULD REALLY
PICK UP IN INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE PD AS 85H WSWLY FLOW
INCREASES TO NEAR 50 KTS.  MODELS GENLY SHOW DECENT
TIMING/AGREEMENT HERE SHOWING BEST FORCING/UPSLOPE FOCUSING NORTH
OF THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE DAY WHILE BRINGING SOME .50 INCH
AREAL AVG AMOUNTS INTO THE OLYMPICS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  A GENL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 17/00Z
 0.01 483338 484337 485336 486335 488335 490333 491331 493330
      493329 495328 497326 498323 499322 500322 500319 502318
      502317 503315 526252 525248
      523245 518237 509222 500208 498205 493203 489203 485204
      479206 476207 475210 472210 467214 464216 463223 454238
      451247 450254 448258 444269 441281 441287 439293 433300
      426315
 0.01 540208 540199 537194 533190 529183 522173 514165 510162
      505163 501165 497169 494175 493181 495187 497190 500191
      510199 519207 529213 533217 536216
 0.01 478691 478685 477679 474677 470677 468679 467684 465692
      461699 457705 457710 460712 463711 465707 469701 471698
      473700 474703 476699 478691
 0.01 454932 454914 453895 449878 447871 444866 441860 436854
      432850 427847 416842 412844 409844 399846 389850 389842
      389834 387828 388819 391803 398795 397792 394791 389793
      386785 382780 379778 377780 374783 373787 371792 367797
      364798 362800 357803 353806 353811 352816 344824 338827
      331828 326833 326837 328840 332844 341843 345842 348840
      353835 354833 356830 360830 369836 371839 371843 370851
      371856 372859 373868 376874 375879 373881 365889 355899
      346911 338918 333920 325921 295922 291926 286930 290943
      292950 288955 279968 276972 274977 278982 283984 286987
      282993 280999 278006 275012 274015 274020 275022 278022
      285022 298017 304013 311010 323008 335011 342014 342023
      338036 337040 335042 330042 327043 322045 321049 323051
      324055 322058 323063 326066 334067 337073 337078 334079
      330081 326083 323090 318093 316099 320104 319108 322113
      324116 328117 341122 349126 357128 360127 363125 366121
      361118 355116 352111 350105 352101 354100 356098 359098
      370104 373105 375103 377102 379099 380094 382090 383086
      385083 394073 399069 402067 407066 411063 414059 418055
      419047 420027 424011 428996 432990 435985 442971 449952
      454932
 0.01 332169 330168 328165 325165 321164 318163 315161 313160
      311158 309158 311159 313161 314163 318164 321165 325166
      326168 330169 332169
 0.01 333772 333769 330769 326772 320773 315772 305769 297762
      288760 291765 298771 306778 312784 317786 323784 327781
      330777 333772
 0.01 322810 322808 320804 319802 318800 314800 314802 312805
      311807 311811 312814 314816 317815 319813 321812 322810
 0.01 322885 320881 316879 309877 299875 295876 292880 289882
      283882 283886 285889 293895 300898 308899 313897 317894
      321887 322885
 0.01 280807 280805 280803 279802 278801 277800 276800 275801
      275803 276805 278807 280807 280807
 0.01 257805 257803 257801 256799 255798 253798 252800 252802
      252803 251804 251806 252807 253808 254809 255808 256806
      257805
 0.25 520269 521261 519255 513243 508234 506228 501224 496223
      492226 489231 484233 476235 472241 469248 464259 458272
      453282 450289 448296 446303 445308 446310 449313 452314
      459315 468314 477311 485308 494303 502298 506295 510289
      520269
 0.25 438937 439927 438917 436907 434900 431892 426887 420883
      411886 406887 401888 394891 390896 386903 386909 384911
      377916 371921 369923 369920 373916 374911 372907 366905
      362905 360906 354910 343921 324939 318944 312948 305952
      299956 294960 293968 293973 296975 297977 296980 289992
      286996 286999 286004 287009 291013 298012 310005 326999
      332998 342999 348000 351002 353004 354013 355023 357032
      359034 363036 366038 368041 367045 363048 358051 356053
      354057 356066 358069 361070 366066 370061 372057 373051
      371043 375044 381040 382037 382033 382029 385027 389027
      395023 400017 405010 412999 419985 427971 431962 434954
      438937
 0.25 399055 400053 399052 397052 395052 394052 394055 394057
      395057 397058 397057 398056 399055
 0.25 382807 382805 381802 380800 379799 377800 376801 374803
      373806 372806 373806 373808 375810 377812 378811 380811
      381809 382807 382807
 0.25 326109 326107 326106 325107 326109 326109
 0.50 517267 517262 516256 511246 506237 504232 500228 497229
      495236 495240 493241 487240 481244 478243 474247 470256
      466270 457291 455295 454302 458305 462305 471304 479303
      494293 500289 509286 510281 512274 517267
 0.50 431940 432932 431924 431917 429910 426904 422901 415901
      408904 400909 390914 386919 385925 387931 386936 382947
      378952 373953 367951 362947 358943 356941 357938 359935
      357932 355927 344928 325942 309954 304958 301963 305973
      293988 290994 288000 289005 290008 292009 296009 305005
      315001 324995 328990 331989 335990 339993 344994 351995
      355997 360999 365002 369008 366016 367021 371020 377018
      380015 385012 389013 392011 399001 406994 412984 417973
      423961 424952 424948 426947 428947 430945 431940
 1.00 512260 512256 510252 509249 508246 507244 505242 503241
      504244 504248 505253 506255 507259 509261 512260
 1.00 505279 505274 503268 499260 492253 489250 485252 482254
      479259 476268 474274 474280 476284 480284 489283 496283
      500283 504281 505279
 1.00 379972 378970 377969 375967 374970 375971 377971 378972
      379972 379972
 1.00 360985 359980 357976 357967 348950 343950 339951 330955
      324959 317965 311970 305977 295989 293993 293998 296001
      302000 304997 306994 313989 320985 328982 332982 336984
      340986 344987 353988 358987 360985
 1.50 500277 501274 499271 496268 495266 494264 492261 489260
      487260 485261 484266 485269 487272 489274 492276 495277
      498277 500277
 1.50 345974 345963 345958 344956 337956 332958 325962 316969
      306979 299988 297990 297993 299994 302992 312984 316981
      318979 323978 335973 345974
 2.00 330969 330968 328968 328969 326970 325970 324971 325973
      326972 328971 330969 330969

$$





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