Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 020657
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 02/1200 UTC THRU SEP 03/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN WA/OR AND ADJACENT STATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND OLYMPIC RANGE...DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWERS. OVERALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH
THE QPF OVER THIS REGION...AS THE LATEST WPC OUTPUT REFLECTS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


...UPPER MIDWEST...

COMPACT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SD/NE EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO COUPLE WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORTING A SMALL-SCALE MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) TRENDS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE EARLY THIS MORNING PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF CONVECTION
(AND RELATIVELY LOW AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL). WPC QPF INCORPORATED
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...INCLUDING SOME OF THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)...WHICH DID A NICE JOB
CAPTURING THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND (THUS) EXPANSION OF
LINEAR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE. HIGHEST
AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE MCV...WITH
AMOUNTS BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCH.


...GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LONG
AGO REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE
QPF OVER THIS AREA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
RGEM...ECMWF...WRF-ARW...AND NSSL-WRF WHICH WERE ALL INCORPORATED
INTO THE WPC OUTPUT.

AN UNRELATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN STATIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INLAND MAY MERGE WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A RELATIVE PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM IN BETWEEN
HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REFORM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO STRADDLE THE COAST AND
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


...SOUTHWEST...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST---EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ORGANIZED ON SMALL SCALES...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS IS LOW...AND WE MAINTAINED ONLY LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE
QPF...USING THE 00Z NAM TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 473619 474622 477628 478636 480642 482646 486655 489660
      492667 493673 494676 495685 495704 492719 491729 491736
      491742 491754 491759 491764 475828 471833 466836 461833
      460827 459820 458815 456809 453811 450811 451808 452799
      447793 441793 438790 436789 436802 436809 435812 431812
      428812 426810 423804 422799 420804 419808 422810 426814
      428822 447829 452846 455852 457857 460861 467868 473872
      478875 483879 489881 493884 498888 503893 507898 509901
      511907 512912 511916 509924 502924 496919 493917 489917
      483915 480915 477916 468924 461939 459940 456938 454936
      450936 443939 436940 431943 423943 419944 416946 412950
      401961 396964 391965 389960 390953 393944 396938 406928
      412924 413922 413917 415907 410902 405896 404894 403889
      403866 388849 383845 378839 378833 379829 381827 385825
      387824 389821 388812 386810 381811 375813 368817 364821
      357835 356839 354841 349844 346841 347834 349826 352817
      348816 345816 343814 342810 344803 346794 349788 350782
      353775 357769 359765 362763 368759 371758 374760 378762
      382767 387769 393772 398777 402781 407789 409793 412791
      417785 420779 422773 427767 430762 431740 433733 437728
      439714 444710 448709 451706 455699 459698 459694 458672
      456658 450637 457619 473619
 0.01 518278 525260 528247 527244 524242 522240 523237 526234
      534227 540209 542184 546177 548167 550160 551148 548140
      545131 540127 539126 537129 530146 527152 521150 514147
      507144 494139 492135 492131 495121 501109 505102 507099
      508094 509091 509086 506080 504077 502079 498086 490094
      485098 480104 473116 469121 466124 463124 459129 455135
      445144 443146 442151 443154 443159 437174 435177 436180
      434186 419213 418223 420222 423224 427226 427231 422233
      416234 415239 416242 418245 422246 430248 433247 436248
      445251 457257 462262 465265 468265 471265 473267 478274
      485287 491298 496302 502303 507298 509294 510289 518278
 0.01 504972 504954 502949 499946 492937 487929 479924 476928
      475934 474940 475947 476953 479959 481964 484969 486975
      489978 493980 497980 501977 504972
 0.01 487195 488188 486185 485181 483178 477173 473172 470173
      460184 457186 456189 450195 450197 447194 443195 441198
      437206 436209 432211 428218 429220 431219 434218 446213
      453212 459209 463209 465207 471203 484199 487195
 0.01 401078 401073 400071 393066 389061 387060 389057 396056
      397055 395052 390047 381046 377045 375042 371036 369034
      367035 364040 359045 352048 339052 333055 328055 325056
      320052 315048 313047 311049 310060 316071 318074 316079
      313080 310078 303076 297075 288074 280071 268064 255057
      250054 246050 240038 236032 231031 227036 226047 224063
      225068 226072 229077 233082 238087 243090 251094 260102
      270111 276115 281114 288117 294122 299125 305128 322130
      329129 333128 335130 338133 341133 347130 349122 351120
      354122 360122 363121 361118 352108 351105 353102 358103
      361101 370094 373096 377097 383092 385084 385077 390080
      394079 397080 401078
 0.01 357757 355752 352750 348747 345747 343746 335748 327753
      314762 307769 300777 293782 289785 283787 279789 274790
      269791 264790 256787 249786 242787 239789 237794 237798
      242819 242833 244837 247840 253846 256851 257857 253866
      251870 248873 240878 234885 231891 229896 228902 229909
      230913 231926 231938 232950 232957 233963 233969 232975
      230983 231994 235003 243009 252011 259011 262010 267008
      271005 282993 306967 316950 321942 326937 335932 339930
      343929 350924 352920 350914 344908 339908 334906 324907
      319911 315922 315925 312926 310928 307927 305922 304917
      303905 302892 304888 305892 305896 307900 309901 313903
      316901 319851 323843 327832 332814 342772 351765 356761
      357757
 0.25 534212 534201 534190 530183 526177 522170 516164 507152
      503152 502155 497161 491164 487169 494184 507191 515204
      519211 523216 527220 531220 533216 534212
 0.25 514264 516260 516256 516249 512241 506221 501213 498210
      493209 485208 477210 471216 470228 464232 459240 458243
      460245 463246 473251 491260 500275 504278 507277 505268
      505263 507260 514264
 0.25 491237 489234 488231 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226
      481229 482230 482232 483234 483235 484235 486236 487236
      489237 491237
 0.25 476720 476717 473720 468725 466728 465732 463741 460748
      459758 460763 462767 467766 470763 472760 473750 475740
      476732 476721 476720
 0.25 469676 468674 468671 468669 468666 467664 465665 465667
      465670 465672 465675 465677 466680 467682 468683 468681
      468679 469676 469676
 0.25 472156 473148 469146 466148 463151 461156 458160 456162
      455166 457167 460166 464164 468162 470160 472156
 0.25 462223 460221 459220 457221 456219 456218 454217 453218
      452218 451220 450222 450223 451223 453223 455222 457223
      458224 460225 462223
 0.25 464720 464717 462719 460721 458724 457727 455730 456734
      454737 454740 455742 458741 458739 457734 460732 462728
      463727 464723 464720
 0.25 465905 466898 466892 463883 452872 446867 443864 438863
      432864 425869 416882 414886 415891 420889 422886 426883
      428883 430888 430895 432905 434916 435922 437924 441925
      447924 451923 454921 460915 464910 465905
 0.25 406834 406831 405829 403827 401826 399826 397827 397828
      397830 398832 398833 398834 399837 400838 401839 402839
      403839 403838 405836 406834
 0.25 386792 384792 383793 384794 386793 386792
 0.25 342100 343096 342091 342089 341085 341083 339080 336079
      333079 332084 333088 333090 335094 335097 336099 338102
      339102 342100
 0.25 330107 331103 330101 329098 325097 320094 316097 310098
      307100 306102 307108 309113 312118 318118 320117 322114
      326111 330107
 0.25 325801 323789 321784 316782 311785 306786 297790 292794
      289797 288802 289804 293805 299804 302806 300809 295809
      284808 278807 271808 266812 266815 269818 274820 284823
      289824 291828 287837 287844 288845 292847 298847 303848
      309847 314845 318841 320836 323825 325814 325801
 0.25 303952 304943 303937 298926 292918 290914 288908 286893
      285888 281883 278878 273876 269875 263877 258887 254897
      253901 251903 248905 246910 246917 248921 252925 255929
      257931 257935 256950 256962 259966 263970 272972 277973
      281971 290966 298959 303952
 0.25 289093 287087 283082 276078 271073 258067 246058 241055
      235053 232055 231059 233065 238069 243075 248079 253083
      260087 265091 271095 278099 285099 288097 289093
 0.25 248996 248992 248989 246986 245984 244982 241980 237981
      236983 235987 235989 235991 236995 238997 240998 244998
      246998 248996
 0.50 531213 531209 530205 529202 528199 527196 525193 523192
      521191 521194 522198 523202 524206 525209 527212 529214
      531213
 0.50 519188 518182 515175 512170 508165 504163 499165 494169
      494174 496180 499182 503183 509185 514187 519188
 0.50 502235 503228 501223 499219 495215 492214 489214 484214
      482216 483219 488222 491225 493230 495234 499237 502235
 0.50 487251 489247 487244 485241 482240 480238 477236 475237
      473242 475245 477247 480249 482251 485252 487251
 0.50 453898 453889 451882 448877 444875 440875 439877 436883
      436892 437902 439909 443913 446912 448910 451904 453898
 0.50 319810 318804 316799 313798 309801 306812 302816 297814
      293813 286814 285816 286818 291820 296822 299825 302836
      305840 308841 312840 314836 316830 319819 319810
 0.50 298947 299942 298937 294931 291925 284921 282915 280906
      278898 273892 270890 266891 263893 262899 260905 258913
      259918 260921 264926 265930 265933 263943 263949 264953
      266956 269958 277959 285958 296949 298947
 0.50 278090 277086 275083 272077 265074 258071 251067 248065
      244065 246070 250075 255080 262084 268087 275091 278090
 1.00 502176 503173 502172 501171 499172 498172 498175 500175
      502176 502176

$$




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