Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 231847
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 24/0000 UTC THRU MAR 25/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS

THE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM TROF MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING DAY 1 TIME PERIOD WILL BE
AMPLIFYING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT---PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  A WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION
PRECIPITATION BAND WILL PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING FRIDAY.  GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN
THIS COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION BAND STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST
CO---FAR NW KS---SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA---FAR SOUTHEAST
SD---NW IA INTO SOUTHERN MN.  DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODEL QPFS ARE
RELATIVELY SMALL---MOSTLY WITH THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST TOTALS.
DAY 1 QPF LEANED MORE TOWARD THE HI RES IN HOUSE ENSEMBLE AND NSSL
WRF FOR DETAILS.  ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES EARLY FRIDAY INTO CENTRAL TO EASTERN CO AS RAIN CHANGES TO
SNOW AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CENTER DEEPENS.

SOUTHERN PLAINS

TO THE SOUTH OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW  ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION WILL ENHANCE EARLY DAY 1 IN A NARROW AXIS OF
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS---RE-IGNITING FARTHER TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN TX INTO EASTERN OK---WESTERN AR---MO INTO
IA.  MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL
BE GREATER THAN WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS---SUPPORTING A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS
ACROSS THE ABOVE LIST AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST OF EASTERN TX.

UPPER TO EASTERN LAKES INTO NORTHERN NY/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

WELL TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE DEEPENING CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
LOW---STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
LAKES INTO THE EASTERN LAKES---NORTHERN NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
RETREATING EASTERN ANTICYCLONE.  THIS WILL SUPPORT A STREAK OF
MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS IN THE .25-.50"+ RANGE ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WITH THIS PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO
INTO SOUTHERN QB---FAR NORTHERN NY STATE---NORTHERN VT--- NORTHERN
NH AND INTO NORTHERN MAINE.

EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST COASTAL FLORIDA AND THE KEYS

POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR THE EAST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE KEYS THIS PERIOD.
ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THIS ONSHORE EASTERLY
FLOW REGIME WHERE RAIN BANDS BECOME ORGANIZED AND FOCUSED.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING PW VALUES EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST---SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT AMPLIFYING
NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROF APPROACHING AND MOVING INLAND.  THE
GREATEST PW ANOMALIES AND STRONGEST ONSHORE FLOW WITH THIS
UPCOMING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT ARE SLATED FOR FAR SOUTHWEST
OREGON INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE PW ANOMALIES WILL REACH AS
HIGH AS 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.  HERE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS OF 1-2"+ LIKELY ---WITH MAX TOTALS OF 5"+
POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS.  NORTH OF THIS---THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT HAVE AS GREAT AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND
MOISTURE FLUX VALUES WILL NOT BE AS ANOMALOUS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT LESS PRECIP VALUES HERE THAN OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/FAR SOUTHWEST OREGON--WITH .50-1"+ AREAL
AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED THROUGH THE WASHINGTON-OREGON
CASCADES--WESTWARD TO THE COAST RANGE AND .25"+ AREAL AVERAGE
AMOUNTS EAST OF THE CASCADES INTO NORTHEAST OREGON AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON STATE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 25/00Z
 0.01 373296 379293 385289 399282 405279 410275 418272 426271
      456268 461269 466270 470272 472275 487284 490287 494289
      502292 506293 509290 514281 518269 520265 521258 522256
      521251 519242 517231 514224 509216 506213 504208 504204
      505201 508200 513201 515203 520209 522211 527214 531211
      532207 535204 534201 534195 533190 529180 525172 522167
      511154 505147 503144 499143 492137 489136 485133 481130
      477129 472133 472139 473141 477142 476147 471147 468144
      463141 459143 457147 454150 451148 441137 438134 436133
      431142 426162 417178 417182 418187 418193 418196 416198
      410201 407202 402200 374181 370180 366181 363184 362188
      365194 367198 367203 360208 355211 347216 341220 336224
      331230 325246 327251 334253 333258 331265
 0.01 504780 503772 501769 499764 500759 499745 498738 499734
      498719 494717 490717 487716 487710 486704 487699 486694
      484689 479680 475670 470663 468656 465654 462655 446655
      443657 438660 432665 430667 426669 420675 416682 414687
      416691 419702 421713 423718 422722 417728 411732 408738
      405741 402745 399752 395761 394773 398781 400785 399789
      398793 398798 401807 403813 405815 411822 425831 427833
      424836 419842 416849 417856 419863 419871 421876 421883
      422886 420889 413894 399902 386909 378913 370917 353922
      319932 307942 297950 276971 273974 271978 272982 278983
      281983 282986 283989 287996 289999 289004 289009 291012
      294014 297015 302016 303019 308026 311028 316029 327030
      332030 335029 345027 352026 359023 362024 362027 359031
      360039 358044 355049 354057 356062 356068 356071 354073
      349072 347074 345080 343088 337091 336098 339106 343114
      346118 350119 357102 359089 359086 361083 365081 368082
      370084 371088 374097 374101 377101 382102 385100 401098
      401101 401105 397107 390111 385114 381115 377119 374120
      371125 371127 373129 380126 384122 388119 391118 401116
      408114 412112 414109 419101 420097 419094 421089 424091
      427096 431097 431091 430087 431081 440064 444055 447052
      448048 451045 452041 447034 436021 435016 436009 438001
      441994 445983 449968 451963 453958 456955 460953 467956
      472964 474968 477970 481963 484955 487945 490933 492921
      495899 497889 498877 501857 502852 502846 500842 499837
      498830 499824 500811 502794 504780
 0.01 392977 389970 386967 382966 375964 366964 358965 355967
      352968 340976 339980 337983 332988 328993 324999 321002
      324004 331002 346999 360995 373989 380987 385983 390980
      392977
 0.01 289806 285800 279796 272795 266793 253792 246796 241800
      236806 233812 232815 232820 233825 235828 238830 240829
      245825 253814 256811 258812 267811 275809 282811 288810
      289806
 0.25 515264 516257 516252 513242 510233 506224 502215 498208
      493203 486199 478198 472201 463203 461203 459201 460198
      462195 466193 473190 477185 480183 483181 491180 495179
      498177 499173 497169 494166 490163 487161 482159 479158
      475157 468152 465153 464155 463163 460166 458164 453157
      447151 438147 436151 436156 437162 439165 439173 436184
      437191 439194 444201 446204 447207 445210 441211 436210
      432208 429204 426202 422201 419217 416213 412212 405208
      398202 390197 375188 371189 372194 374202 376206 376211
      373213 369213 364213 361215 356223 352232 351242 352249
      350260 350266 351270 356276 362283 365285 371286 383279
      395272 409267 424261 438258 453256 462256 467257 477263
      483268 496279 501282 505282 508280 509275 515264
 0.25 499253 498250 497249 497247 496246 496244 495243 494241
      494240 493238 492237 492238 493240 493242 494243 495245
      496247 497250 499253 499253
 0.25 485235 485233 486230 485228 484227 482226 481226 481229
      481231 481232 482234 483235 484235 485235
 0.25 480877 480871 480865 479861 476860 474860 472856 470851
      471832 471821 472814 472796 470781 468770 466763 461750
      460731 459725 456718 452713 447711 444709 440710 438717
      435724 432730 432744 432776 424778 419780 413784 412786
      411790 413801 416807 424816 428820 434823 438827 440831
      442834 442839 441846 438863 436879 430890 420898 410905
      401911 395915 389916 379921 366925 352928 340932 328937
      318943 309950 300958 290966 287970 288973 292974 298983
      304983 309981 331968 341963 351956 374947 385942 390939
      395936 400931 405929 411926 415925 419926 421928 419936
      414948 410961 405976 399988 393998 389004 386010 380024
      371033 367039 366046 358053 361058 366057 375057 382059
      390067 393068 397067 401062 410052 417043 422031 427018
      432002 437989 441974 445959 450944 455932 461920 466916
      470915 470912 473905 475898 480877
 0.25 379008 379005 378002 373002 368003 364004 360005 354007
      351008 348011 351014 356014 360013 365012 369011 373010
      378009 379008
 0.25 265800 261799 255800 250801 246803 243805 241809 241815
      243817 245815 247812 251809 254807 258804 263803 265800
 0.50 506279 505270 503262 498255 495249 492243 488237 484238
      482237 479231 476228 472227 468227 469224 472221 478218
      486221 489224 490227 493233 497239 502243 506248 508247
      508243 506234 504226 501218 497213 491210 487208 483208
      478208 471210 464210 459208 457212 452213 440215 436214
      433213 429209 425207 423209 424214 423219 422224 420228
      417227 417218 415215 411213 405209 399205 393200 386197
      381194 377192 375195 376201 381208 382214 377218 372217
      369218 366221 364229 361237 358244 359251 360266 362269
      365272 371275 376275 382273 394268 416258 440252 452250
      460250 466251 473254 478258 488267 497276 502280 506279
 0.50 463181 463179 463177 461177 459176 458177 457178 456179
      455179 454181 454184 455185 457185 458185 458184 460183
      461183 462182 463181
 0.50 466876 461843 461835 461826 459807 458800 455795 447805
      444810 443816 446834 446843 445850 443866 441880 439887
      436892 432898 430904 428912 428922 428929 426936 421949
      412975 407987 401997 395006 391012 388018 383028 380034
      376037 372041 370047 370052 372053 380055 386056 393059
      397057 402053 426011 431997 435984 442957 458901 460893
      463888 465881 466876
 0.50 454176 454174 453171 451169 450169 449170 449173 449174
      450175 451176 452177 454176
 0.50 396922 393921 390922 384924 375928 370930 363931 352932
      340935 329939 320944 312950 296964 295969 302969 314966
      315969 320967 330964 340959 345956 348952 368943 378939
      386933 396922
 1.00 502275 503270 502266 498259 491245 489241 487241 484245
      481244 479236 478233 474232 469235 464234 450233 447234
      444238 448241 452241 459240 466240 473245 479250 485256
      489262 499273 502275
 1.00 462223 464221 464219 463217 461216 459217 458217 456217
      455218 454221 455223 457224 458224 460224 462223 462223
 1.00 451225 452223 452222 450220 448220 447219 445219 443219
      441219 441220 440222 439223 438224 437226 437228 438230
      440231 442231 443230 445229 446228 447228 449227 451225
      451225
 1.00 435244 436241 435238 430236 427234 422232 417231 415229
      414226 415220 414216 409215 404212 397206 394203 389202
      387204 387208 389211 392215 394219 391221 387222 382223
      379224 376227 373232 372241 371253 373257 376261 381262
      384262 394261 401258 415253 423251 431248 435244
 1.00 455872 453857 451854 450856 450862 449878 445889 442894
      440899 438911 438920 439926 440929 442928 444923 446911
      449896 450882 455872
 1.00 437957 437949 435947 431949 428954 423963 420973 416982
      411991 401008 395016 390025 387029 387035 391043 393045
      396044 399041 405033 416019 422010 426001 429990 432978
      437957
 1.00 362941 361938 359937 354937 345939 336941 330942 327944
      319949 314954 311958 315958 323956 332953 340949 348947
      357944 362941
 1.50 500269 500266 498263 496260 495257 493254 492251 491249
      488249 488253 490256 491259 492261 495264 496267 498269
      500269
 1.50 429243 426238 421235 415233 413231 413226 412219 407218
      405219 404224 400226 387226 383228 379233 378243 380248
      389256 395256 400254 408249 421247 425246 429243
 1.50 428980 428976 428971 423975 417986 411996 405007 398016
      392027 393034 398033 407026 414017 420008 423001 425994
      428980
 1.50 402216 402214 402213 400211 399210 397208 395206 394205
      393205 392204 390206 391209 393211 394213 395214 396215
      398216 399216 401216 402216
 2.00 427242 423238 418235 412233 410229 410222 408223 407227
      404229 397228 387229 384231 383238 385243 389246 393249
      397250 406246 411244 416244 425243 427242
 2.00 422996 423989 421987 419989 417992 415996 412001 410005
      408010 406014 407017 409018 412015 415012 418008 420003
      422999 422996
 2.00 398213 397210 395208 394209 395211 396212 398213 398213
 3.00 419240 419239 418237 416236 414237 413238 414239 415240
      417240 419240 419240
 3.00 404240 404238 403237 402236 400235 398235 396236 395238
      396240 397240 399241 401241 403241 404240

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