Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 250641
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 25/1200 UTC THRU MAR 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST....

THE NEGATIVE TILT H5 TROF WITH 2 DISTINCT S/WVS EMBEDDED WITHIN IT
IS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS TO CONTINUE LIFTING THRU THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY..THE ENTIRE GREAT
LAKES AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY..WITH 2
SEPARATE SURFACE LOWS CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE FEATURE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROF..ON UP TO 50KTS OF SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET..ALONG WITH PRETTY DECENT MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS/HEIGHT
FALLS..SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THRU
MUCH OF THE REGION..BUT WITH WATER EQUIVALENTS MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE DUE TO THE MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.  ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHERN
MN THRU THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES..PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR
SNOWFALL DETAILS.  MODEL QPFS..WHICH GENERALLY KEPT THE WATER
EQUIVALENTS BELOW 0.50 INCH..WERE FOLLOWED CLOSELY.


...OH VALLEY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

THE HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EVEN LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINS WILL OCCUR THRU
THIS REGION DURING THE PERIOD..AND ESPECIALLY FROM LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT..AHEAD OF THE H5 S/WV DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE ROCKIES TODAY AND CONTINUING TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE FRONT DRAPED
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY..BEFORE BEGINNING
TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE.  THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
EXPANDING AND INCREASINGLY HEAVY RAINS..WITH UP TO 50KTS OF LOW
LEVEL JET EVENTUALLY LEADING TO THE POOLING OF PWS VICINITY OF THE
FRONT TO NEAR OR ABOVE 1.25 INCHES..AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS AIDING IN THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT.  FOR THE MOST PART..THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT BOTH MASS FIELD AND QPF-WISE WITH THIS SYSTEM..WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE NAM QPF LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS.  OTHERWISE..EXPECT AN AXIS OF AT LEAST
SOME 1.50-2.00+ INCH ARAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS
RIVERS..WITH ISOLATED GREATER THAN 3 INCH TOTALS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS..WITH THIS
THREAT MOST LIKELY LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES/MID ATLANTIC COAST...

A PLUME OF DEEPER/HIGHER ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THIS PERIOD..ON A STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30-40 KTS.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MOSTLY LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAINS FROM THE CAROLINAS UP THRU THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF VA..SOUTHERN MD AND INTO DE AND NJ..WITH
MODEL QPFS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS AND GENERALLY
FOLLOWED.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

SOME WEAK H5 S/WVS MOVING THRU THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST..ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW..AT LEAST INTO WESTERN WA STATE..SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE TERRAIN ENHANCED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE OLYMPICS INTO THE WA CASCADES.  SOME 0.50-1.00 INCH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN.

TERRY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 536215 536206 535199 532189 528180 523172 521165 517159
      514155 510151 504149 500145 497143 493139 487133 479124
      473117 469106 464100 457096 450091 442086 441079 445080
      450083 455087 460088 461084 459077 456068 454068 451064
      444059 438064 431052 428048 423045 414041 413034 420034
      421034 418030 416029 402023 403010 406000 411975 413968
      413960 414955 414948 414940 416935 416924 414919 409919
      407915 408909 409900 408891 410885 414874 419858 422858
      425862 430869 439885 447901 449908 450914 452928 455939
      459947 464959 470969 486980 494983 502983 511980 518974
      523970 528964 533958 537949 540944 541938 544926 547914
      548903 548879 548870 546862 542852 539846 538838 535832
      532829 528830 523805 522800 521793 520787 520779 519764
      520758 519750 519740 519733 517717 516712 515705 513691
      509676 504662 498654 490646 484643 476641 461641 442647
      435649 433652 430653 425655 417661 413664 410668 402683
      387729 385734 382738 376744 371749 363753 360755 355757
      347760 331767 326769 323769 324767 328759 332751 334748
      333745 326746 319745 309751 304752 300757 298761 299766
      304772 306775 305778 291780 286783 284787 291793 294795
      298796 303804 310826 313829 315826 315820 318817 321818
      323821 327826 328833 331838 334842 341842 347841 351839
      361828 370815 374807 378799 382791 386782 390777 393774
      396775 396778 395784 391793 388799 385804 382813 389818
      385829 383841 369872 361888 353904 347911 341916
 0.01 341916 332921 326926 310940 305945 300953 292968 288978
      286986 285002 285008 285012 283013 278013 271012 266007
      260001 253999 247000 248004 254009 261010 265013 270023
      280025 284026 287025 291024 294021 296013 301012 305009
      311005 317995 320990 323986 325986 326988 328993 333998
      338004 344009 355024 357029 358034 357036 355043 352046
      350051 352055 361057 368062 370064 375065 385064 385068
      382071 379075 379081 381083 383081 386079 389078 391080
      394081 396086 398090 401089 403085 405081 408077 413076
      416078 418083 421086 432097 437097 439096 441099 439103
      440105 443105 446107 449109 452115 455118 457123 457130
      455135 453137 453141 454146 448153 447160 449163 452166
      454172 451171 451174 449177 447184 447187 450192 451198
      450204 451206 457204 458208 456211 453213 445217 439222
      439226 442228 444233 444240 455254 460259 464264 470271
      476279 481287 486295 489297 493299 503298 510297 524260
      524257 523254 522249 522245 521242 521239 519236 518232
      517228 517225 518221 521222 524223 527224 529222 531221
      533219 535216 536215
 0.01 488198 486195 483196 477197 472198 469195 465195 464199
      460202 458205 461207 467207 471205 477204 482202 486200
      488198
 0.01 496064 496059 494055 490050 485042 480038 475033 469029
      462026 456023 453022 448020 442019 437022 436028 438031
      442037 448041 454046 458050 471056 484065 492066 494066
      496064
 0.01 469681 467679 464678 460679 457680 455680 452679 449682
      451684 454685 456685 460686 462686 465687 468684 469681
 0.01 373006 374003 374001 374999 373997 371999 369001 369003
      367005 367007 367008 365010 365012 365014 365016 367018
      368016 370014 370012 372010 372008 372007 373006
 0.01 333889 331885 328883 323881 320880 312876 305871 301869
      297868 292870 292873 296881 300884 303885 312888 320890
      331890 333889
 0.25 517276 520266 518256 516250 513245 509231 507224 505221
      500215 495210 490208 485207 474209 465213 461215 458217
      456221 459226 464226 474222 480223 483227 472230 467232
      464236 466243 470249 477258 483270 489281 492284 499289
      502291 507290 510287 514282 517276
 0.25 522205 523198 523195 521189 519186 514181 510175 502172
      499173 497177 496190 499198 502202 509201 515203 520206
      522205
 0.25 484852 483848 481847 478845 476844 474842 472843 473846
      475850 477852 478854 480857 482859 483854 484852
 0.25 445766 445760 443757 438753 434747 432744 429747 429750
      430755 431762 433766 429768 424780 419789 418792 415794
      409797 404801 401805 398811 392826 375866 363894 355912
      345925 336935 327944 321952 319955 319960 321965 326966
      331965 334969 334973 336980 340983 344984 348983 353981
      364976 371971 375965 381954 386941 396909 399894 403882
      407868 409857 411849 417837 422827 426820 432816 437812
      439808 440804 438789 443784 444778 444771 445766
 0.25 407724 406715 402714 398719 396723 392733 388742 382752
      379757 379762 378768 380771 385769 388765 394757 399748
      404738 407726 407724
 0.25 391052 390050 388050 386050 385050 383051 383052 384053
      386054 388054 390053 391052
 0.25 377051 377049 376048 374047 372047 371047 369048 369049
      368050 369050 370052 372052 374052 376052 377051
 0.25 349782 349779 348776 346772 341774 336776 332777 327779
      325783 326786 329788 335788 340787 345785 349783 349782
 0.50 516272 517266 516259 512250 507238 503230 497221 490214
      487212 481210 474213 470215 467220 473219 478220 484222
      487226 488231 488236 483239 476233 472235 471239 472241
      477250 483259 486267 492277 495281 499284 504286 507285
      509283 514276 516272
 0.50 506190 506187 506186 504186 504187 505189 505190 506190
 0.50 406843 406831 404827 402826 400826 396830 389842 380861
      372882 361910 355923 346936 342943 345949 343956 342961
      342967 346972 350976 357975 364972 370967 373962 377955
      380947 384939 385931 389913 394898 399880 401871 402864
      406843
 0.50 392748 393745 391745 391746 390748 392749 392748
 1.00 507277 508267 504260 504253 502256 497254 491248 488244
      484245 485253 488259 491267 495274 500280 503281 506279
      507277
 1.00 477238 477237 475237 477238 477238
 1.00 393874 393866 394861 393856 389856 383863 373887 362919
      360935 357947 354959 352965 353970 364967 370960 376950
      380940 384914 387901 389890 392881 393874
 1.50 502275 503271 501268 500266 498263 496260 494259 491257
      491258 492261 494264 495267 497270 499273 500275 502275
 1.50 386877 386871 382873 379880 372898 370907 368916 366927
      366936 359954 356963 355965 359966 362964 366961 370956
      373952 375947 378940 379935 379929 378921 380911 383902
      385892 385881 386877
 2.00 373926 375917 378903 382891 380888 378891 373901 373907
      372916 371923 370928 371930 373926
 2.00 375943 376939 375936 373937 371942 370947 368947 366949
      364954 363958 364959 367956 370952 372949 375945 375943

$$




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