Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 270658
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 27/1200 UTC THRU MAY 28/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY / LOWER-MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY /
TENNESSEE VALLEY / LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

THE POSITIVELY TILTED EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY 1
PERIOD. BY 12Z SUN...THE RESULTANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL HAVE PUSHED
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID
MS VALLEY. BROADLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
TROUGH...ALONG WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC SUPPORT AS A SUBTLE UPPER
JET STREAK ELONGATES NORTHEAST OF THE TROUGH BASE...WILL SPARK
WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN KS-OK
EASTWARD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN TN VALLEY. DESPITE
THE FAVORABLE MASS FIELD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE...THE
MODEL QPFS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SIGNIFICANT N-S SPREAD WITH THE
HEAVIER TOTALS...AND IN SOME INSTANCES (AS WITH THE NAM AND
GFS)...NOTING A BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION WITH THE MAXIMA. AS WITH THE
INHERITED QPF FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...WPC INCORPORATED MORE
ECMWF AND WRF-ARW GUIDANCE FOR 00-12Z SUN...WHICH CONTINUE TO BE
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD. GIVEN THE
THERMODYNAMIC SETUP (GREATER DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY...PWS
1.5-1.75+ INCHES...AND SW-WSW LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF 40-50 KTS INTO
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE AN EFFECTIVE W-E DRAPED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY)...BELIEVE THE WRF-ARW/PARALLEL ARW AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 521152 520144 520139 522133 521125 524118 525111 524104
      522099 514093 508088 503085 498083 494085 490085 486081
      484076 478069 474069 471073 468075 466077 466080 471089
      477096 481105 486106 490110 497116 502116 504112 507113
      509116 510121 514132 515137 515144 515148 517151 520153
      521152
 0.01 525936 525930 520931 517933 513932 512926 510923 507924
      504926 500928 498929 496926 493918 494913 493910 489904
      482909 478915 479930 476934 472934 469937 467940 464949
      464952 467954 471955 474959 472964 468967 467971 465974
      464971 463967 460966 457969 457974 457979 459984 460989
      461991 460993 460997 458001 456005 458010 463018 464018
      466015 468009 469015 468021 471026 479027 485023 491018
      495013 497008 497004 499001 506003 512001 513998 512993
      510988 512983 518983 521980 521974 519962 518959 519955
      520947 525936
 0.01 491808 490802 487800 484801 481805 479808 473808 471808
      467813 463819 459825 449837 432860 427861 424860 416856
      411852 406845 400839 396831 400821 406814 411809 415802
      419795 422788 424785 424781 423769 423762 421760 417752
      411748 408747 402747 399749 397748 395746 392736 383720
      382716 382710 381704 378700 375700 371701 366705 354716
      343724 336729 330734 329737 329742 333751 336758 340765
      343768 345772 349779 356785 357789 357793 355794 352795
      348798 347805 350813 351817 351822 345828 340832 333846
      332865 330874 331883 332890 331895 328903 326908 327910
      327924 328941 324949 323954 320955 317956 315959 311966
      310970 309975 311984 313992 321993 326993 328991 332984
      334983 338983 341984 346985 349983 357983 364979 367978
      369982 371992 379003 383009 385011 388012 395016 401019
      408023 412029 414031 414035 413041 408047 404045 401042
      396036 386020 383013 378006 376003 373003 366004 363005
      361008 360011 360014 360021 361025 364033 367041 368044
      368050 370055 372057 375060 376064 376076 378080 380080
      384077 383070 382066 383063 387063 388066 387075 389082
      396085 402083 408079 416078 425075 429075 431073 431066
      435059 437057 440057 447058 449054 448049 442028 442023
      444017 447007 452991 452980 451976 451970 450964 448964
      439963 434963 433960 434956 437947 439937 442930 452886
      456885 459882 464878 471873 479874 484878 488877 489870
      487865 484863 481862 477858 476854 477851 480843 482835
      486829 489816 491808
 0.01 453120 453117 452116 450116 450117 449119 450120 451120
      453120 453120
 0.01 313013 314008 313004 311002 308002 303006 302008 301013
      302016 300018 292018 278018 271017 263016 256018 257021
      269027 281033 289034 297034 303032 308028 309021 308019
      311017 313013
 0.01 283798 281794 277792 267789 262788 258790 253792 251797
      245805 242808 242812 244814 246813 249810 260810 265808
      267807 269804 267801 268799 279800 283798
 0.25 481827 480819 476819 474823 472827 470831 468836 466839
      465846 466849 468849 471847 474843 476839 478835 480829
      481827
 0.25 444892 444885 441883 438885 435889 431895 427900 421904
      416910 415918 414921 410923 398926 396919 395909 394887
      393878 392873 393869 393863 391859 390854 388851 385850
      382847 381837 381831 382828 385821 387813 391808 395800
      400794 401789 401784 398780 396783 394789 390781 388780
      385781 380786 378795 378806 375808 372809 364811 359815
      356822 353829 349835 346839 346843 345849 343853 341855
      342860 342866 339883 338893 336900 333909 332914 332920
      332925 334930 336936 338945 338950 336952 334956 336959
      340960 342963 344966 347968 352968 355965 359959 366961
      373959 376962 378965 380973 382975 385974 387973 388974
      390978 393986 398992 404994 410991 415984 421972 423963
      427954 428946 429934 431926 435920 439913 441904 444892
 0.25 414893 413889 411882 410877 409873 407866 403865 402871
      403878 404882 405889 407894 410898 411898 414893
 0.25 394052 393049 390045 384042 380037 377030 372023 369022
      367025 369034 373041 376048 381052 386052 390054 392055
      394052
 0.25 376717 373710 369710 367712 358722 352725 347729 343735
      343739 346741 350744 353746 354750 353759 354766 364774
      365770 365765 364756 363747 366741 370735 371727 375722
      376717
 0.25 327975 327973 326972 326971 325969 325968 323967 321967
      319969 318971 317972 317973 317975 317976 318977 318979
      319981 321981 323981 324980 325980 326977 326976 327975
 0.50 425945 423937 424931 425925 424923 419924 409931 408938
      405942 399954 395959 394965 394975 396981 400986 404986
      409984 412980 418968 422954 425945
 0.50 397947 396934 394924 392913 391902 391894 389890 386886
      383884 379877 377866 376855 375846 373841 370838 364835
      365831 368828 370824 372825 376823 376819 373817 370818
      366817 362819 360823 360827 360832 358833 355836 353839
      351844 352851 352857 349861 346868 343877 339897 336905
      334915 334925 337934 341942 343951 345956 346961 348965
      351965 361953 371954 378953 381956 382961 384964 387961
      394955 397947
 0.50 373720 373717 372715 371714 370714 369714 368715 367716
      366718 366719 366721 365723 365724 367724 369724 371723
      371722 372721 373720
 0.50 384918 383915 382913 380911 378913 377916 377918 377920
      378922 380921 382920 384918
 0.50 364728 364726 362726 360726 358727 357727 356728 355728
      354730 353730 353733 353735 353737 355738 356738 358737
      359736 360736 361734 363733 364731 364729 364728
 1.00 375905 376900 375896 372891 369888 365885 362881 358878
      353870 344888 346900 343912 338915 336920 337927 339932
      342936 344941 346954 348959 353958 355953 357947 355941
      352936 350930 352923 364940 366941 370941 370936 369923
      369916 371911 375905
 1.00 365869 365867 365865 365863 364860 364859 362860 361861
      360862 360863 359865 357868 357870 358872 359874 359875
      361875 362874 363873 364872 364870 365869
 1.50 366907 365905 364902 360901 358903 358907 359910 360914
      361916 364918 364914 364913 365909 366907
 1.50 352954 353952 353949 352947 351947 350946 348945 347945
      346945 346947 346948 347949 348952 348953 349954 350955
      352955 352954

$$





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