Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 250701
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 25/1200 UTC THRU MAY 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...NORTHERN PLAINS / MIDWEST / GREAT LAKES....

WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MESOSCALE AREAS OF MODERATE AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SYNOPTIC ORGANIZATION AND
PREDICTABILITY APPEAR GREATEST OVER NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PRODUCING A
NICELY DEFINED DEFORMATION AXIS OVER WESTERN/NORTHERN ND AND
ADJACENT EASTERN MONTANA...WELL WEST OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF CAME IN LINE WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS REGARDING LOCATION OF AN AXIS OF HALF TO ONE INCH OR A
LITTLE GREATER AMOUNTS STRADDLING WILLISTON AND MINOT. HEIGHT
FALLS WILL ALSO EXTEND EASTWARD...BRINGING A PROGRESSIVE BAND OR
RAIN/THUNDER THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN ND...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS ALONG THE ND/MN BORDER. THE
FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD RESULT IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN
THIS AREA AND A RATHER UNSETTLED SWATH OF CONVECTION THAT WILL BE
OCCURRING FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS LATTER
SWATH THAT IS THE SOURCE OF MUCH OF THE FORECAST DIFFICULTY OVER
THIS REGION...WITH AN ARRAY OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...OUTFLOWS...AND
MCVS. ON THE LARGE SCALE...A LEAD SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING SHOULD YIELD ORGANIZED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. ALSO EXPECT AN MCV TO
EMANATE FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IN NE/IA...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL TO AID CONVECTION ARCHING DOWN THROUGH IL/MO DURING THE
DAY AND EVENING. THE BETTER MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THESE FEATURES
APPEARED TO BE IN THE 00Z GFS AND WRF-ARW...ALTHOUGH WE REFERRED
BACK TO THE 12Z WRF-ARW AND WPC CONTINUITY AT TIMES.


...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD...

THE LATE MAY REGIME OF STRONG CAPE...LOCALLY STRONG CAPPING...AND
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FORECAST CHALLENGES.
TEMPERAUTRES OF 10 TO 12 C AT 700 MB COVERED MUCH OF TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN HALF OF OK/KS. A PREFERRED STORM/MCS TRACK HAD BEEN ON THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS WARM MID LEVEL CAP...AND
EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY OF CONVECTION HAD BEEN SHEDDING DEPRESSIONS IN
THE HEIGHT FIELD DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEE
NO REASON FOR THIS PATTERN TO BREAK TODAY. THE LEADING
DEPRESSION/TROUGH HAD PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN IN AR/MO TUESDAY...AND
THERE ARE SHORT TERM SIGNALS THAT CONVECTION MAY IGNITE AGAIN WITH
THIS FEATURE OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AND ADJACENT STATES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONVERGENT MID LEVEL FLOW AND LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE
INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY WITH THE SLOWLY MIGRATING UPPER
PATTERN...SUCH THAT CHANCES FOR RAIN SPREAD TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE HEAVIER RAIN AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL SHOULD LAG A BIT...BACK ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE
AND BACK WESTWARD TO THE CAPPING INVERSION...BASCIALLY CENTRAL
OK/KS. ALSO EXPECT A MORE ACTIVE DAY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS
THE SUB-TROPICAL JET STRENGTHENS AND HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH.


...WESTERN U.S...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN MAKES SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY...WITH
BOTH THE LOW ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER WITH CANADA AND THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. PRESSING EASTWARD.
HEIGHT RISES OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SHOULD PRODUCE A
MORE STABLE VERTICAL PROFILES...WITH DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS BEING
LESS NUMEROUS AND LESS PRODUCTIVE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. THE MOST
CONCENTRATED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PREDICTED TO BE
ACROSS NEVADA AND INTO MOUNTAIN RANGES OF WESTERN WYOMING...WITH
JUST THE RIGHT COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND NEUTRAL TO
POSITIVE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE QUITE LOW...BUT SHARP HEIGHT
FALLS COULD LEAD TO A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
FOR QPF...WPC USED A COMBINATION OF CONTINUITY...NDFD...AND OUR
DOWNSCALED IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE...ALONG WITH SOME PREFERENCE FOR THE
00Z WRF-ARW.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 532195 535178 533168 528158 521151 500145 492141 492137
      492132 486124 483112 482107 482100 484098 486093 487088
      497074 501070 501063 503049 508041 512033 517025 523016
      524010 523004 519995 516983 517970 520908 520892 519886
      517879 509862 505853 500846 487831 476817 469811 462807
      453804 446803 450785 453777 455773 460764 465755 468752
      470747 477741 482739 484737 499723 503718 503711 502703
      500699 501687 500679 498675 493665 491662 487660 479656
      472648 469645 464647 459649 455651 446655 440660 437662
      434667 430674 428679 426686 431690 440692 449692 451694
      450696 448701 443708 440713 438718 437724 437731 436734
      438741 436751 434757 432761 430764 431772 430793 403808
      395814 392818 390824 385831 381823 377814 373810 370810
      364816 360822 354830 351835 349841 348846 350849 355851
      356853 355857 354861 351866 348873 342882 341887 341894
      330926 317941 312949 310953 312954 320951 329946 332947
      333953 332957 332962 333967 336970 339972 344972 351973
      355975 364978 372983 378983 382982 385984 388987 392995
      404012 409017 416013 418010 419001 416990 415983 418978
      423971 425967 428969 431971 433972 433975 429983 424995
      422001 422006 427015 431022 432027 435031 439033 441035
      443032 444019 447016 450013 458011 459003 461002 461006
      463011 463017 462025 460030 457037 452047 448055 446059
      441057 435063 432067 431074 428079 425082 421085 418083
      411086 405094 399101 393107 387113 378119 375121 377123
      381124 386122 392120 397120 402121 407124 407130
 0.01 407130 408133 406137 402137 398135 392135 388139 371154
      366167 362173 358177 355181 353182 355185 364193 368197
      373201 384207 395214 400216 404212 401207 404199 404192
      405189 408189 412193 417197 421200 425197 429193 434190
      435186 432185 429187 427188 423187 420182 418179 418174
      422171 426167 431166 429161 425160 418148 418143 420141
      422136 426131 432130 432138 432142 433146 436151 441155
      446160 448165 450170 455174 458175 460173 460169 455157
      454154 455150 457148 459150 460153 462151 465154 467160
      471166 475169 478170 481172 485176 491178 493177 496178
      501178 507177 510178 511181 513188 514196 517203 519205
      522206 527204 531201 532195
 0.01 505234 504230 502226 500223 499219 495212 492210 488210
      484208 479208 475212 473215 475218 477221 481224 486225
      492230 494232 498234 502235 505234
 0.01 467242 467240 467239 465238 463237 462236 460236 458235
      457235 456236 455237 453237 452238 451240 452242 452243
      454244 455244 457245 459245 460244 462245 464245 465244
      466243 467242
 0.01 478072 479069 479067 477065 476066 474067 472067 471068
      470069 469069 467070 467071 465071 464072 465074 467075
      468075 470075 472076 473077 475078 477076 477074 478072
 0.01 367133 368124 368121 367119 363118 356117 349116 347116
      345120 344122 346125 349128 352135 356134 358132 362132
      365135 367133
 0.01 347194 347192 348189 347189 345189 344191 344193 345194
      346194 347194
 0.01 364987 362985 357984 353985 350989 346991 344995 344998
      347000 351000 355996 358994 360992 364987 364987
 0.01 340177 340174 337173 333171 332170 328168 326167 326170
      326172 329173 331175 334178 336178 338179 340177
 0.01 321999 321990 319985 315981 314973 313966 310962 303961
      296962 284964 278966 273968 264974 259977 255981 251986
      249990 244000 244006 242012 241017 241021 242024 246027
      252029 257031 264032 272032 277031 284031 287033 288035
      291040 297038 301036 304034 305032 312024 317011 321999
 0.01 267782 266777 263774 260772 256771 247771 238773 234774
      231776 229785 227803 226806 227810 229815 231817 234826
      238834 241834 245832 248825 251817 259819 264817 267814
      265810 261804 264798 267782
 0.25 508027 509020 509013 509006 509998 510982 508971 506960
      502953 495948 492946 490942 489929 489925 490918 490909
      488897 486892 487887 492880 493875 492869 490861 485854
      479848 466840 461836 453838 449838 446836 443833 440830
      437821 435821 432825 426831 420835 413841 408847 399861
      396863 392864 384865 380865 377867 375877 377907 373913
      367919 364922 363927 360936 346936 341940 340946 343949
      346950 349949 358945 366949 376948 385946 391951 395959
      396964 398967 404971 407974 410975 412973 413967 413961
      414955 416951 420944 424941 428941 433942 436945 440949
      446969 450978 453981 456982 460985 462988 466997 469006
      470016 469027 465039 464043 466048 470050 474050 483051
      487051 491051 497046 503039 506033 508027
 0.25 480680 480675 478671 476669 474668 472670 470672 469675
      467678 466681 465685 467689 469690 472690 476689 478686
      480683 480680
 0.25 452097 452094 451092 447089 445090 442088 439085 436084
      434085 436090 437095 437102 439107 442104 446101 448098
      452097
 0.25 451078 451077 450075 450074 449073 448072 446071 445071
      443072 444075 446077 446078 448079 448080 449081 451080
      451079 451078
 0.25 379194 379192 378189 376187 373186 370184 366184 364184
      365186 367189 369190 372192 374194 377195 379194
 0.25 369889 366885 363880 362876 359875 354878 350881 347886
      346890 347894 350899 352905 355907 358907 363903 365896
      368891 369889
 0.25 307009 308999 305992 301986 293983 290979 283980 276982
      270986 264990 264997 275005 272007 268005 265004 262005
      258011 258014 259017 262019 267021 271019 276020 283018
      292020 297020 301019 305014 307009
 0.25 255789 255785 254781 248781 242783 237786 235792 235800
      237808 240812 245811 251808 252802 254796 255789
 0.50 505019 505008 505997 505978 500964 487957 478949 473944
      470938 464924 462916 460912 460908 461900 459890 458879
      457876 454874 446874 440876 437874 437868 438861 445859
      446857 444853 443849 442844 439838 435833 433833 432835
      428841 423847 419852 414856 410861 406868 403875 402883
      402892 404901 406909 407910 411909 417905 417910 416914
      415917 412919 408919 407920 403928 402938 401946 399955
      399959 403961 406953 414941 421930 425926 431928 435933
      440938 444944 446953 447961 450969 453974 460976 468988
      472994 474000 475010 474019 469037 469044 474046 486045
      493042 497038 501034 503029 505019
 0.50 401917 399912 396910 391909 386911 382913 382920 382925
      379929 370925 366929 365934 365941 368944 372942 377940
      379937 383938 388939 391937 393927 400920 401917
 0.50 361896 361892 360887 359884 358882 354882 352884 351886
      349890 351894 353896 354899 355901 358901 360898 361896
 0.50 300008 299000 299995 298991 296989 292989 284986 277989
      273993 279997 285999 287008 291013 295013 298011 300008
 0.50 251792 251790 250788 249788 247789 245790 243791 242793
      242794 241795 241797 242799 242801 242803 243804 245805
      246803 246802 247800 248800 249798 249796 250794 251792
      251792
 1.00 502008 498000 497994 495989 492986 489987 485997 482009
      480022 477032 475038 477041 481039 484037 491032 496026
      500015 502008
 1.00 481977 479972 477969 474965 471962 467959 466959 463964
      465969 467974 470974 474974 477977 481977 481977
 1.00 450923 450906 445896 437891 433889 430885 424876 420873
      416877 414882 415887 418891 422893 426897 426905 427913
      428915 431916 435917 439921 442924 448925 450923
 1.00 411938 410937 409936 409935 409936 408938 409939 410938
      411938
 1.50 497013 497010 496010 495009 493009 492008 490008 488010
      487012 486013 486015 486017 486020 486021 487022 488023
      489023 490023 491023 493021 494020 495019 495018 496016
      496015 497013
 1.50 441911 441910 441911 441911

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.