Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 190647
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 19/1200 UTC THRU AUG 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTHEAST TO MID-ATL...

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...USHERING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OUT TO SEA.  THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY SET OFF SOME
MORE SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING OF THE LOW
LEVELS RESULTS IN STEEPER LAPSE RATES.  AIMED FOR SOMETHING CLOSE
TO THE GFS OR THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE QPF FOR
PLACEMENT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS.


SOUTHEAST COAST AND GULF COAST

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH AND STALL NEAR THE GULF COAST TO THE
NORTHERN FL PENINSULA. THIS IS WHERE DIURNAL HEATING AND PULSE
TYPE HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH MORE
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY OVER THE REST OF THE FL PENINSULA.


OH VALLEY INTO MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY

AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE EAST. THIS FEATURE NOW MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARD THE OH VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. DESPITE NOT HAVING A
PLETHORA OF MOISTURE CONTENT TO TAP...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH DIURNAL HEATING FROM IN/OH/WESTERN PA BACK
INTO THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH OR THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY. THE
00Z MODELS WERE NOT MUCH CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS THAN THEY WERE 12
HOURS AGO...SO WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
THE NAM CONEST AND WRF/ARW FOR AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT.  CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS IS LIMITED.

NEW MEXICO

A SMALL SCALE VORT MAX WITH A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE COULD
REACH SOUTHERN NM AND WEST TX BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE
00Z GFS BACKED OFF BRINGING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO RESULT IN SCATTERED LATE DAY AND EVENING CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ACROSS PARTS OF NM.
EITHER WAY....THIS COULD BE THE START OF A MULTI-DAY RETURN OF
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BANN


24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 528178 529175 529172 528171 527170 526169 525168 524167
      522167 522168 521170 521173 522174 522176 523177 524178
      526178 528178 528178
 0.01 525195 522189 518185 516179 513173 509169 505171 504181
      505187 511191 516194 521198 525195
 0.01 533968 533957 529951 527946 522943 516939 517934 519932
      526924 530917 533910 532904 531900 528899 521898 514899
      505903 485917 477929 469936 466944 465953 465957 467957
      471957 472955 484950 489948 494947 491965 494968 501968
      507973 511977 515980 520981 525979 528975 533968
 0.01 512160 512157 512156 511154 511153 509153 508151 506150
      506151 505153 506154 507156 507157 508159 510160 512160
      512160
 0.01 503228 502223 500218 499214 494211 492216 488218 490220
      491221 491224 493230 496233 498233 500230 503228
 0.01 507756 506746 505737 503718 500713 497709 491705 486701
      484699 484695 483689 489670 487661 485656 481652 476653
      472652 469647 463640 456637 449635 440637 436639 434642
      417657 414660 411665 408673 402680 398688 399691 402694
      405696 408698 413697 417695 422692 428689 448686 451689
      448694 446698 445701 442711 441721 442730 445733 452732
      456728 459728 460732 458737 456741 452744 444741 437740
      434743 432747 432752 429752 426746 423743 421742 418742
      414746 401759 399763 399767 401770 403771 403774 399782
      394789 382809 379831 377839 379841 379845 377848 376854
      377866 407853 409850 411845 413842 416840 425838 426834
      426827 438806 444800 446798 449799 450805 452816 456824
      461831 466836 472836 474832 475823 475815 474807 475801
      480792 484784 489777 496772 500770 501767 507756
 0.01 496141 496138 496137 494135 492134 491132 491131 489131
      488131 489134 489135 490137 491137 492138 493140 494141
      495141 496141
 0.01 479215 479213 479212 477212 475213 474214 473214 472215
      471216 471217 473217 475217 477216 478216 479215
 0.01 477072 478059 476054 468042 467036 468031 468026 466023
      466018 465013 462008 455008 451012 450022 448029 445033
      445036 444046 446053 447056 451057 455057 457059 460060
      462063 466070 467078 469081 473081 475076 477072
 0.01 468885 468879 467876 466863 467853 465849 463848 460855
      453859 446860 446872 451878 458880 462881 464883 466886
      468885
 0.01 448077 448073 446072 445070 442067 440067 438067 436069
      436071 438071 440070 441072 443072 444075 446077 448077
 0.01 441016 441012 438009 432004 427003 428999 431992 432986
      431982 425978 422977 423973 425967 428961 431955 432951
      431945 427940 423940 418941 410941 405944 399948 393952
      388959 385968 382976 380985 378992 375998 366004 364007
      362005 362002 364001 361999 351004 346007 344010 343013
      344015 350015 353014 356016 357018 357021 355025 353029
      350032 339040 333042 327042 328038 325037 323034 320032
      318033 312030 309029 307030 302032 300031 300028 296025
      286023 280020 265015 261014 259015 257018 257023 259030
      257038 255045 252046 251050 252056 248060 249064 249071
      252077 255080 275103 280107 284108 288107 294105 299103
      303102 304104 307110 309115 313114 321104 325098 329095
      334095 337098 340100 343098 344095 343091 350086 358076
      362072 368068 373066 381065 386067 389072 390073 392068
      397073 392089 392098 393103 391107 388109 380111 376117
      374120 373124 373129 374132 376138 383141 386147 388149
      388154 387163 384170 385173 383177 380181 374181 371182
      365181 359183 362189 359190 357194 362208 364209 367209
      368207 367204 366202 365197 367194 369194 374196 378201
      382205 388207 392207 396209 399209 400204 398195 395193
      393194 389191 388185 392179 397171 399164 399157 400152
      403151 404137 405132 407125 411108 411101 410096 408095
      402089 401085 402082 404075 407072 408069 407065 407060
      409056 410051 408048 406044 404044 398041 395040 394037
      398034 407029 417022 423019 430019 437019 441016
 0.01 437799 436794 435792 433787 433778 432768 431763 429764
      426770 423773 423782 422789 421797 422800 425800 429798
      434799 437799
 0.01 414905 412901 410898 406894 404892 399890 395889 392891
      389895 391899 394903 398905 401907 405909 410909 413907
      414905
 0.01 398009 390007 383009 376012 370017 366023 373027 374032
      372035 372037 374037 376037 384035 388027 391020 394013
      398009
 0.01 375753 373740 372735 368732 362726 359718 355717 354718
      348722 345728 339732 334739 329748 322762 316775 309787
      305795 302798 300798 301794 301790 299786 296783 293782
      288783 281786 267792 259789 249792 241792 237794 237798
      236807 235814 237821 241824 245826 248829 250833 256833
      261832 265833 271838 275844 277852 278862 278871 280882
      285891 288910 292917 296921 299929 303933 307935 310939
      312943 316946 320945 322942 326935 328932 332930 335925
      340921 341917 339915 337912 335906 333902 330898 323894
      317890 314889 313885 313880 312875 307873 300876 299873
      300869 302864 304859 306840 309834 313829 323819 346795
      364775 369768 371763 373758 375753
 0.01 370914 370902 370891 368882 365879 363877 360876 357877
      354883 354894 354905 355916 357923 360927 362927 366923
      369914 370914
 0.01 350199 351197 351195 350192 349190 349189 347189 346191
      346194 346195 347196 347198 347200 347201 348201 349200
      350199
 0.25 464660 461653 456650 451649 446650 441653 436657 432662
      433667 438668 443669 450667 455668 459668 462666 464660
 0.25 419787 419782 418777 417771 412773 409779 404790 399801
      397808 399814 401827 397833 398836 402836 407832 410827
      413821 413814 411811 412808 415803 417796 419790 419787
 0.25 423989 422987 419985 415985 412985 409987 407988 405989
      404993 405996 408997 411996 413994 415993 419992 420991
      423989
 0.25 412012 412010 411009 410008 410007 409007 408008 407010
      407012 408013 409014 411013 412012
 0.25 405963 407959 405955 402956 401959 399961 398963 396966
      395968 393972 394977 395979 398980 400977 401975 402971
      403968 405966 405963
 0.25 386200 386196 385194 382193 380191 377189 375188 371186
      368187 371190 372192 374193 377196 379198 382199 384200
      386200
 0.25 366759 367754 365751 361745 358740 357732 354730 352731
      346735 340744 333756 329766 327775 324780 322785 317789
      313794 314799 313803 306812 299822 297825 295826 295830
      299838 303837 305831 307826 312820 316817 317809 322805
      328802 332800 336795 341790 346787 350783 354777 366759
 0.25 360049 360045 358042 355042 353045 350050 347054 344056
      339055 334052 320050 315051 312053 308056 303058 296058
      280058 268055 264055 261058 260066 260070 263076 270085
      280092 282094 287095 293094 299092 306093 311096 317096
      319095 320091 317086 318084 322082 325082 329083 335081
      338077 339073 338069 340062 342060 345060 348061 350059
      353055 358055 360049
 0.25 326915 326913 324910 322909 319908 315907 311908 308909
      308911 308913 310916 312918 314921 315923 319923 321922
      323919 326917 326915
 0.25 296794 295789 293788 289791 286793 282794 275795 261795
      255796 249796 245796 242798 240803 240809 241813 244818
      251818 255815 257813 259815 261815 262812 263804 270801
      276802 279804 283803 290802 296794
 0.25 297903 297901 296899 295898 293898 292899 291900 290902
      290904 290906 291908 291910 292910 293911 294910 295908
      296908 297905 297903
 0.50 416788 416786 415784 414783 413783 411783 411784 410786
      409789 409791 409794 408796 408799 409800 411800 413799
      414798 414796 415795 415793 416790 416788
 0.50 364755 363753 360753 356757 352760 348760 346767 344773
      342779 345783 350780 352775 355769 358765 363760 364755
 0.50 335062 335058 330056 321055 316056 312058 306060 287060
      279062 272060 267061 265064 267071 270079 275084 279086
      284088 293089 302088 309090 312088 311083 312080 315077
      322073 328070 333066 335062
 0.50 314815 312815 308816 306817 304819 302821 302825 301827
      300830 300834 302834 304831 305829 305826 307822 308820
      310818 312816 314815
 0.50 266798 264796 260796 255798 250798 244799 243805 244811
      246813 249813 257812 259811 258808 256804 261801 266798
 1.00 361758 360757 359757 357759 356761 358763 359762 360761
      361759 361758
 1.00 351767 352764 350764 350765 349766 348767 349769 347770
      347772 346773 346774 345776 345779 347780 348779 349778
      350776 350775 350773 350771 349769 351767 351767
 1.00 323065 319062 315062 306067 301068 295067 285066 280069
      275069 272073 275075 285080 290081 294081 299079 303077
      311071 315068 320068 323065
 1.00 251806 252804 251802 250801 248801 246802 246803 246805
      247806 249807 250807 251806

$$





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