Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 090956
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
549 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2014


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 09/1200 UTC THRU JUL 12/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


1000 UTC UPDATE

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE

DAY 1

LOWER MS VALLEY---SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC

1.50-1.75"+ PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS---ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC DAY 1.  THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH
OF THIS FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF AR...MS AND AL ALREADY SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WARMING OF TOPS.
WHILE THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN EARLY DAY 1---ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH RESPECT TO
DETAILS OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.  HOWEVER---GENERALLY FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY TOTALS DAY 1 ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

CENTRAL PLAINS

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EAST
AND OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES---SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION FIRING IN A NARROW
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED AXIS---WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
IN THIS AXIS. CONVECTIVE CELL MOTION VECTORS SUGGEST ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE---BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION---ISOLATED SHORT
TERM PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 1-2" ARE POSSIBLE.  THERE ARE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EXACT AXIS WITH MODELS INDICATING ANYWHERE
FROM EASTERN NE INTO CENTRAL KS.

SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE GREAT BASIN

THE RECENT MONSOONAL PATTERN IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE THIS PERIOD.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A
MOISTURE PLUME STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE GREAT
BASIN---SOUTHWEST AND AS FAR NORTHWEST AS NORTHERN CA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST---ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE GREAT BASIN
UPPER HIGH. PW ANOMALIES IN THIS PLUME WILL CONTINUE IN THE 2-4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN RANGE.  WEAK IMPULSES REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN AND ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER HIGH OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE AREAS.  HOWEVER---NO REASON TO BELIEVE THE RECENT
PATTERN OF ISOLATED ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE AREAS WILL NOT CONTINUE
THIS PERIOD WITH ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DOES ORGANIZE.

DAYS 2/3...

...DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...

A SLOW MOVING SHEARED UPPER TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WHERE A
MAJORITY OF THE 12Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MEANS AND 18Z GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
LIKELY TO BE COMMON ON DAY 2/THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE ON THE RELATIVELY
DRY SIDE COMPARED TO ITS OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 00Z NAM/UKMET
INDICATES THAT QPF MAY BE MORE PROGRESSIVE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE
COAST.  THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED BUT FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MORE WITH
THE ECMWF/GFS IDEA THAT QPF WILL NOT TREND FARTHER NORTH FOR NOW.
THE 00Z ECMWF DOES TAKE THE HEAVIER QPF INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
BUT STILL KEEPS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST NORTH OF THERE MOSTLY DRY.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST/FLORIDA...THE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF AND THE MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAL
AVERAGED AMOUNTS OVER .25 TO .5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OF COURSE.

...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS/MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/MIDWEST...

A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE
OR MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT WILL THEN MOVE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES...THERE HAS BEEN SOME MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS DEVELOPING AREA OF QPF ALTHOUGH THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY WITH MODEL TO MODEL QPF AMOUNTS.  BOTH
THE LATEST ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BOTH SHOW AN EXPANDING
AREA OF QPF ON FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS...THE AREA MOVES EASTWARD DURING FRIDAY AND DIMINISHES IN
INTENSITY BY FRIDAY EVENING.  THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE
HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF MEMBERS AND A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION IS DEPICTED ON THE FORECAST GRAPHICS WITH QPF MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF .5 TO 1 INCH SPREAD OVER DAYS 2 TO DAY 3.  THESE AMOUNTS
ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TOTALS IN THE
AREA BUT NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FORECAST IS DEPICTED SINCE THE AREA
WOULD REQUIRE FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN/HOUR TO GENERATE
FLASH FLOODING AND THOSE KINDS OF AMOUNTS ARE NOT SEEN IN THE
FORECASTS AT THIS POINT. MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST IS EXPECTED LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS MESOSCALE SYSTEMS OVER THE
ROCKIES HEAD EASTWARD AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

...ROCKY MOUNTAINS/SOUTHWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS...

THE ONGOING MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH
CONTINUED DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS WITH HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
QPF DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH POOR FORECAST
CONSISTENCY EXCEPT OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. TOWARD THE END OF DAY
3...A COLD FRONT WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SOME POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT OF QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE DAKOTAS BY
SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE SIGNAL IS STILL MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
ECMWF.

ORAVEC/KOCIN



GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 458702 459696 456695 454694 451695 446695 440699 430708
      426710 423713 420715 416716 413715 408716 400718 391720
      380722 356741 350751 345764 342771 339777 340786 340789
      338792 331805 327811 324817 318823 311828 309832 309837
      308846 309854 306860 304862 302859 299854 298845 296843
      293843 291846 290850 287858 287867 288877 292885 295886
      297890 298896 297898 295897 294894 293889 288889 285891
      285896 284902 284910 288914 293912 294916 294921 297929
      299933 303934 308937 312939 314943 319951 323959 325967
      328973 330975 333976 337976 341978 346984 370992 379999
      384003 384012 384023 387031 389034 392034 396030 400023
      401015 403011 407004 413010 421020 431031 433030 435026
      434021 427010 423004 420998 423996 425993 425987 424983
      421973 416965 405955 377946 371945 365944 352941 345941
      341943 339937 341934 341929 341918 341907 344900 349886
      356868 360861 360850 361835 364827 367822 375810 381796
      384791 387783 390783 394784 396785 396789 390806 390809
      391815 393817 398816 416804 427795 431790 434784 434778
      435774 435768 438763 441756 443747 446738 450731 454723
      457716 458712 457709 458702
 0.01 435208 434204 430201 429196 426192 423190 419190 415191
      412195 407203 408208 409213 408227 409231 415232 420226
      426219 432213 435208
 0.01 417163 415153 410147 406139 403136 399136 395139 393144
      390155 386164 386170 387175 388178 392177 397171 400168
      404166 408165 413165 417163
 0.01 413118 412113 411108 411104 410096 408093 406095 400108
      395113 392115 387115 383119 379121 375122 371121 365118
      355111 352107 351103 350098 352095 356091 363093 368094
      370096 374097 377096 382093 387093 389092 392091 395089
      401083 408073 408066 405058 400055 396060 392061 388059
      381056 378052 374048 366046 358047 356048 354053 353061
      350069 347071 342071 337073 333076 324085 320085 315084
      308081 303078 296074 286068 279067 271066 265070 262077
      262086 265093 271100 274103 275106 278111 282113 285114
      291119 297122 303127 322141 335148 340148 344147 348143
      353140 359138 363139 365138 367135 366133 373132 378128
      392121 402119 408117 413118
 0.01 294799 294794 291793 284791 276790 272790 269791 267794
      264794 260793 256793 253793 250795 244800 241806 241809
      241815 245820 250826 255828 259830 262832 269834 278832
      282828 283824 287821 289815 288810 285807 280803 280801
      285801 294799
 0.25 414989 415985 414980 412975 408971 403967 393962 380958
      376957 370959 368966 368972 371978 375982 384988 389991
      396992 401993 408996 412996 414989
 0.25 385747 385742 384738 380737 376738 367747 359758 356764
      355771 352777 349783 343795 341798 342801 346799 348796
      356786 366778 372776 374773 376769 382757 385747
 0.25 352126 352123 349120 344114 340111 334117 330114 328111
      326107 324101 319095 314091 310090 306089 301091 298094
      296098 297107 302113 306117 314122 319125 322128 326129
      328128 332129 338134 342135 345133 350128 352126
 0.25 349820 346820 343825 337836 333845 330850 325853 319861
      313871 306892 304897 302905 304914 308917 314924 317928
      323932 328931 331926 332911 338886 342876 346862 347851
      348843 348837 345834 346828 349820
 0.25 281813 280809 276807 272805 269803 263803 259803 256804
      254808 256811 259813 262816 266817 272818 277816 281814
      281813
 0.50 409987 409981 407977 400970 393966 384963 377961 374963
      372967 373973 376976 382981 391986 399988 403989 407989
      409987
 0.50 379748 380744 377742 372746 369750 364755 361760 358765
      358772 362774 367771 370766 373761 376755 378750 379748
 0.50 337867 336861 334860 330861 321866 318871 315877 311888
      309895 309903 310909 313915 321923 326925 328919 330904
      330896 330887 334876 337867
 0.50 265815 265813 264811 262809 262808 260807 258806 256806
      255808 256809 256810 258811 258812 260813 262814 263815
      264815 265815
 1.00 398979 398977 396975 393972 391971 389970 386970 385972
      386974 387977 390979 393981 395981 397982 398979

24HR QP VT 11/12Z

 0.01 538013 538011 540004 538983 534945 527929 505933 482930
      453915 416899 386906 360914 344890 343867 350850 358840
      370820 381820 395812 401782 396771 400754 410736 422717
      423696 410680 384691 346729 324779 301801 280798 279798
      275797 268796 262796 258797 249802 245809 246817 251822
      256828 263832 273833 278834 281836 286843 288848 289854
      294880 293887 291891 287900 288905 291910 291918 289923
      282940 266959 250966 240971 253991 268008 286995 291966
      312943 344956 382006 405002 414018 397037 378042 359032
      337043 327053 315071 295067 278062 258063 250076 271100
      273103
 0.01 479101 482133 489158 500175 515175 524158 512134 507105
      499100 496094 496089 495084 492079 490076 487077 485080
      482085 480096 479101
 0.01 437114 429129 426143 433139 439140 441127 440120 438113
      437114
 0.01 336157 330154 311147 300149 302154 310157 327165 340165
      339158 336157
 0.01 268099 275103 280107 283109 316132 338139 358151 377147
      390158 381175 371181 371187 388204 396200 411218 407225
      422235 435227 436201 429164 438154 450155 458137 454109
      458095 453067 470053 486064 512066 529034 537013
 0.25 529008 527004 524002 517999 520995 522994 525991 525984
      523980 519979 512982 506985 499990 494995 489002 481018
      477026 477033 479036 492028 496027 500028 507024 519017
      526013 529010 529008
 0.25 527963 527960 526960 525958 523959 523960 524962 525963
      526963 527963
 0.25 487990 487989 486987 485987 484988 482989 482990 481992
      482994 482995 484995 485994 486992 487990 487990
 0.25 466976 465969 462966 458964 455965 444960 440950 427931
      413923 398925 388936 378937 361935 351939 361951 372974
      383983 396977 391961 391954 400951 417975 422983 427993
      428000 426006 426011 428012 434012 441008 449005 454001
      457997 461994 463988 466976
 0.25 410110 411105 411101 411099 410094 408091 405093 403094
      403097 403100 404102 404107 404111 407113 410112 410110
 0.25 411075 415065 412057 401053 392049 378057 373066 369077
      369081 377089 380091 383092 389090 394088 401088 405084
      407077 411075
 0.25 385756 392730 382716 369723 355740 338772 322810 311818
      298815 288812 279806 273803 266803 260803 257804 254808
      254811 257813 261817 265820 269823 286823 298828 304831
      306836 305849 305859 304866 303875 303884 303904 304911
      308915 311917 314915 317910 320907 323906 325903 325898
      324887 325878 327865 329857 331851 335844 339839 345827
      352817 360807 367795 374782 378771 385756
 0.25 363128 363124 361121 359119 357118 354117 351116 347116
      345118 347121 348123 350126 352128 355130 356131 358131
      362130 363128
 0.25 342100 342098 342096 342094 341091 340091 338092 337093
      336095 336097 336098 337099 338101 339102 341101 342100
 0.25 320106 319099 315093 311088 304085 297084 290081 280074
      269068 265067 263068 262073 264076 273085 275090 280096
      290103 300110 308112 315110 318108 320106
 0.50 505003 505001 503001 502003 501003 500005 499006 498006
      497008 498010 500008 501007 503006 505004 505003
 0.50 397935 400942 415961 420966 424964 428957 426943 417935
      414936 405933 400934 397935
 0.50 403072 404067 403065 400063 396064 394064 391065 389068
      388070 386072 387075 390075 392073 394071 396069 399071
      400074 402074 403072
 0.50 380750 379742 378737 375733 372730 367729 364731 358739
      354748 350758 347766 343776 339784 335793 330813 328819
      331822 335822 339820 353808 360801 364793 369784 373774
      378755 380750
 0.50 388974 389972 389970 389968 388965 387965 386963 384961
      382961 381961 380961 379963 378965 378967 378970 379972
      380974 382974 384975 386976 387975 388974
 0.50 382079 383076 383074 381072 380070 378071 377073 377076
      377078 377080 378080 379081 380081 381080 382079
 0.50 325851 325844 323841 319840 316843 315854 312862 311873
      309884 310892 312896 315896 318892 319887 321878 323867
      324857 325851
 1.00 368772 370751 365743 358748 351771 343793 345802 350802
      354801 357797 361792 363785 368772
 1.50 364769 365766 364764 363762 362762 361763 360765 360766
      359767 358769 358770 358772 358774 359776 361777 361776
      362775 363773 364771 364769
 1.50 355788 356786 354784 353786 352789 353791 355788 355788


24HR QP VT 12/12Z
 0.01 528894 517816 502761 494764 464812 446836 430827 414832
      383865 374887 361887 357862 370820 388802 395758 396723
      380706 349719 328753 281793 263793 248797 245812 253828
      270845 279886 285923 295941 335950 366935 383937 391965
      381005 349043 309069 291068 279058 272035 265023 257023
      251024 248026 247033 247043 247062 250070 279114 314133
      336120 348124 352101 371090 390094 386111 372122 371126
      369124
 0.01 369124 371125 374131 383131 392126 396125 400128 415139
      422142 434155 458138 465118 480087 484047 477006 491969
      507949 519942 530933 528892
 0.01 449214 451205 448197 447193 437184 432176 422167 418171
      425179 425187 427191 425192 420187 416188 415190 416201
      419206 420207 420210 420216 422219 425220 432221 445216
      449214
 0.01 275025 291028 299014 296002 281995 272999 269008 269012
      270019 275025
 0.25 519921 515912 510913 507916 502921 496928 490934 484942
      484946 487947 495944 501939 507933 514928 517925 519921
 0.25 515895 515890 513888 508885 504885 498888 493891 490894
      488898 488901 492905 498904 503903 509900 513897 515895
 0.25 505823 500816 496813 491811 488814 485819 480829 476840
      472852 472857 477854 483846 490838 497832 502829 505824
      505823
 0.25 466028 465021 466016 464008 461005 449005 446016 445028
      440039 438057 440069 446073 446080 440087 436094 440100
      449094 454077 461047 462042 464038 466028
 0.25 445916 445907 443901 437892 430884 426880 420879 411877
      403877 399880 394882 388881 385883 383885 385895 383907
      386914 389918 392924 394929 398942 403952 404959 405968
      405974 407980 408983 411983 414977 416964 419956 419952
      421950 426949 431948 434944 437937 438930 440925 443920
      445916
 0.25 412068 413062 412059 409055 409051 413049 413046 411043
      407040 401036 395030 388029 382033 377040 374043 371044
      363046 356050 354055 356059 360059 365061 371064 377071
      381077 388082 393083 395082 402078 407072 412068
 0.25 370745 368737 361737 346750 316799 304814 286811 272815
      282823 305832 310841 317843 328831 330811 345794 349789
      368761 370754 370745
 0.25 342089 341085 337083 334080 332076 329074 326076 325079
      326083 330086 333089 337092 340095 342090 342089
 0.25 315116 324107 326100 319092 305086 297083 290080 282076
      270066 266065 263066 261069 261074 263078 265080 268083
      269087 276092 281097 286103 293108 307116 312117 315116
 0.25 302893 303890 302888 302886 302885 300886 300887 300889
      299891 299893 300893 302893 302893
 0.50 461028 462023 462018 461013 460011 458010 456010 454013
      453017 453022 454026 455030 457031 459030 461028
 0.50 419933 429931 429923 415914 401891 392895 396915 406937
      412936 419933
 0.50 404070 403067 400066 396065 393065 389065 387068 389070
      390074 392076 395077 398076 400074 403072 404070
 0.50 396044 390042 391039 396044
 0.50 360765 361763 361760 360758 360756 358755 357755 355756
      353756 352757 352759 351760 351762 351764 351766 353768
      355770 356770 357770 358769 359767 360766 360765
 0.50 312107 314101 311096 307094 304091 300090 297091 292092
      293096 296100 298103 302106 306108 309110 312107

$$





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