Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 130701
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 13/1200 UTC THRU FEB 14/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...COASTAL MAINE INTO CENTRAL MAINE...

A WELL DEFINED INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING WELL EAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST AND SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST OF
MAINE INTO A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN
QUEBEC. 06Z OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE 00Z HI-RES MODEL CONSENSUS OF
A WEAK LOW FORMING IN THE GULF OF MAINE...ALONG THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
MESO LOW AND ALONG THIS TROF AXIS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL COAST OF
MAINE...MAINLY PRIOR TO 18Z. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AXIS UP
AND DOWN THE CNTRL MAINE COAST...BUT THERE HAS BEEN A DEFINED
SHIFT FOR THE HEAVIEST QPF TO BE PRIMARILY OFFSHORE IN THE 00Z
HI-RES MODELS AND EVEN THE 00Z NAM/GFS/UKMET/CMC. SEE THE LATEST
QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

...GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

THE SRN CORE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL VORTEX CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SERN CANADA WILL PASS OVER NEW ENGLAND
TODAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE LAKES WITH THE ONLY
DEVIATION BEING ACROSS LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN BY
12Z/14...WHICH IS WHEN SOME BACKING OF FLOW IS ANTICIPATED AS 850
MB RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF MULTI-LAKE FETCH ACROSS HURON AND ERIE INTO
NWRN PENNSYLVANIA/NERN OHIO. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO EXTEND FAIRLY
FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING...IT WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA
TONIGHT...COINCIDING WITH ONE OR TWO SURFACE LOWS ALONG A STRONG
WARM FRONT. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO REACH THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER NEAR 12Z/14...WITH BANDS OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION IMPACTING THE PLAINS WITH SNOW GENERALLY EAST OF 100
W. THE 00Z NAM WAS NOT USED AS IT DIFFERED WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE PLAINS COMPARED TO THE
REMAINING MODEL CONSENSUS. STILL...QPF DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
GIVEN ABOVE AVERAGE SPREAD IN THE 00Z MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE GLOBAL
AND HI-RES GUIDANCE. BANDS OF PRECIPITATION APPEAR LIKELY FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS LATE THIS EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET
STREAK REACHING THE PLAINS AROUND 00Z/14. MODEL QPF WAS CLOSE TO A
00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF BLEND ALONG WITH SOME COMPONENT OF THE 00Z ARW.
SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION AFTER A SHORTWAVE AXIS
CONTINUES ESEWD FROM WASHINGTON/OREGON
TODAY...MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.00 TO 1.25
INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE OREGON COAST BETWEEN 00 AND
12Z/14...WHICH WOULD BE +2 TO +3 ANOMALIES. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL FIRST REACH THE OLYMPICS AFTER 18Z TODAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND 850-700 MB FLOW OF 40 - 50 KTS...AND LOCALLY
HIGHER ACROSS THE OLYMPICS NEAR 00Z/14. THE FOCUS SHOULD BE FOR
1-3 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 12Z/14 FROM THE OLYMPICS DOWN INTO THE
OREGON COASTAL RANGES AND INTO THE CASCADES. WPC QPF BUMPED UP
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY FROM CONTINUITY TO MATCH THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL
CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE 00Z GFS/NAM AND 12Z ECMWF.

OTTO

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 14/12Z
 0.01 558103 559087 557077 556070 554065 549055 539040 530029
      528027 528024 529019 529004 529999 527993 523986 513969
      502957 476939 473939 471937 466937 463934 458933 447923
      436912 424900 413891 408884 401878 395873 389870 385871
      382875 381879 381886 378894 373901 368909 362914 360918
      360923 358927 359932 362941 366947 369956 371959 377959
      385955 391949 391929 396929 400932 405938 415953 419961
      419966 417971 421980 426987 429991 431995 432008 433013
      433020 433033 434043 429051 444082 446087 441088 435093
      427094 430101 426108 425113 428115 429118 433118 439118
      442121 445122 445126 444133 441137 437138 435142 433147
      430156 427187 433181 436178 438178 439181 438187 440192
      447194 451199 455200 456204 454207 445208 438210 434210
      430213 424218 420225 419228 422230 424235 423239 420244
      418246 415249 416253 423261 423266 426271 429277 432288
      434298 437305 441312 454321 471323 479323 488320 494314
      498310 509291 518273 520259 523248 526239 529229 532217
      536207 537202 536195 533187 527178 524168 497144 491136
      486130 483127 478126 474125 470123 468124 466123 465120
      469118 472116 470098 474085 477083 479087 483083 485073
      486069 488066 491069 493071 498072 502073 506071 513066
      516064 517063 519066 514076 512088 512095 513100 513105
      514111 517121 520128 523131 526132 543130 550126 554119
      558103
 0.01 490711 489700 487690 483684 476686 470684 465681 462674
      464668 466659 464653 461649 464645 471643 474637 477632
      475626 467629 453633 445635 439635 428642 420646 413648
      382657 370663 364667 359672 356677 354684 352700 352708
      353718 350723 344727 338730 334732 332735 327738 324743
      321750 319755 318758 319764 320766 323768 328763 329759
      332757 344751 356744 361747 365751 370748 376742 387736
      402732 408721 411714 412705 414703 417702 422705 429704
      431705 433709 440723 441726 443729 446730 450729 458727
      464728 469729 474733 483725 487724 489720 489714 490711
 0.01 482196 483194 481192 480193 479195 481196 482196
 0.01 478197 479193 480188 479183 476182 474184 472186 470190
      468190 466194 467197 469200 472201 474200 475199 478197
 0.01 487869 486864 484863 482859 479854 477851 474849 467846
      464845 459847 457848 452849 449848 447845 445841 442839
      438837 438840 439844 437844 424836 423837 425841 428847
      431849 434852 436854 437857 434858 427856 424853 422848
      414835 414831 416827 418824 423822 426826 429827 436829
      449836 452838 456838 457830 455824 454817 455806 451801
      446797 442795 439796 439801 441804 442808 438809 431807
      428804 426800 427796 430793 435792 436789 438779 441771
      441762 431749 429745 425745 423744 422747 424750 423760
      424772 421781 416783 414783 414786 409784 405783 403783
      396788 393790 389791 384795 381800 380805 380809 382809
      389806 394803 397805 401806 403810 405820 403828 401832
      402836 405845 408854 412863 416870 421874 430874 435873
      438872 444873 446869 450867 456868 462874 464876 466882
      466888 465892 465903 467905 470903 474897 476893 480892
      485879 487869
 0.01 288776 288774 288772 287772 286770 285770 283770 282770
      281771 280773 280775 280778 281778 282779 282781 283782
      285782 286781 287781 287779 288777 288776
 0.01 279861 279859 279857 279854 279852 279850 278848 277846
      276845 274847 273849 273851 273853 274855 274857 275857
      276859 276861 277861 278861 279861
 0.25 516262 517256 516252 515245 508232 501219 499213 497209
      493207 487205 481205 469207 464209 458211 447215 441217
      436219 432224 433230 436231 439230 443230 446231 447231
      446232 443234 437236 435237 433242 432247 434251 440255
      444260 448266 456276 458283 466287 473287 478286 490286
      498287 503288 508282 511276 516262
 0.25 524198 523192 520188 513181 505173 499165 490159 485156
      481153 478149 479144 483143 487140 486136 481132 476131
      473133 470139 466140 460139 456140 454146 451154 451159
      452162 454163 460164 466166 472168 477168 483170 487174
      490178 492183 497186 502186 506187 510191 517198 521201
      524200 524198
 0.25 491237 490234 488232 487230 485227 482226 479225 479226
      481229 482232 484232 486232 488234 490237 491237
 0.25 482012 482005 479000 472994 468985 464983 462982 460979
      461975 460973 457968 454959 452953 449949 445946 440946
      437950 437958 437968 439982 439995 442008 443021 445035
      448046 455047 458050 462050 464034 467023 474017 481012
      482012
 0.25 461180 462178 461176 459177 458176 456177 454176 452178
      451180 450183 450185 450188 451189 452190 454189 456187
      458185 458184 459182 461181 461180
 0.25 446661 443654 440650 435649 428651 418657 414661 407665
      406667 406670 409676 416686 419690 424694 428695 435694
      440695 443694 445689 444677 446661
 0.25 457108 456107 455105 454104 454103 454100 453099 451097
      450097 449097 448099 448102 449104 450104 451107 452109
      454110 456109 457108
 0.25 445111 446109 445108 444107 443106 442105 441105 440105
      439106 437107 435108 434109 435110 437110 438110 440110
      442111 443111 445111 445111
 0.25 406684 405679 404675 398673 394674 391676 386681 379691
      371703 368708 364715 362721 361729 366733 370733 374732
      385725 395717 399710 401704 404689 406684
 0.50 512266 514255 513248 507237 503231 501225 496213 491210
      484208 474209 454216 443219 440223 438226 440227 447229
      451227 456226 456231 444235 441238 438238 438241 439244
      442247 448249 459252 466254 472257 477260 481265 489273
      493277 499282 502282 504279 507273 512266
 0.50 500248 497243 494238 491232 489225 483222 476222 471223
      472227 475227 480232 481235 484236 487237 490239 493244
      498247 500248
 0.50 473161 473158 472155 470153 467150 466148 463147 461149
      460153 460156 463158 465159 467162 469164 472163 473161
 0.50 443686 441679 440672 440667 439665 435660 431657 426659
      422665 420671 422677 426681 430686 434689 440691 443686
 0.50 448998 449990 449983 448980 450974 450966 449963 447962
      445966 444973 445978 444983 444990 445996 446001 448998
 0.50 396694 395688 393687 388692 383698 379705 374710 370715
      368723 372724 376722 381718 387713 390711 392707 394699
      396694
 1.00 493261 493254 491248 489243 486241 484242 481240 479236
      476233 473232 469234 459234 454234 450236 447240 447242
      450243 460243 469242 479247 487254 490259 493261
 1.00 498234 497231 497229 496226 496224 495223 495221 494222
      493225 493228 494229 494230 494233 495234 496236 498234
 1.00 489219 488213 486212 479211 473214 466215 461218 454219
      454222 457224 461226 463225 469221 471219 475218 483220
      486220 489219
 1.00 435683 435681 434680 434681 435684 435685 435683
 1.50 479241 479239 479238 477236 476235 474235 473236 473239
      473240 475242 476242 478241 479241
 1.50 482216 482215 480214 479213 477214 476215 477216 478217
      480217 482217 482216
 1.50 459237 458236 457236 455235 454236 453236 451237 451238
      453239 454239 456239 458239 459237
 1.50 461223 460221 459221 458222 458223 460223 461223

$$




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