Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 230655
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 23/1200 UTC THRU AUG 24/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
ROCKIES

A WELL DEFINED VORT EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION
THIS PERIOD.  STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST UT---SOUTHWEST TO
CENTRAL CO---NORTHERN AZ.  THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.  CONFIDENCE
ON QPF DETAILS LOW---BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WELL DEFINED VORT
AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES---LOCALLY HEAVY AND ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO
VALLEY---MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY

STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW---INCREASING PW VALUES ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTION DAY 1 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS---LOWER MO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY. MODELS ARE
CONVERGING ON A POTENTIAL MAX PRECIP AREA IN THE VICINITY OF
EASTERN NE---FAR SOUTHEAST SD---ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF IA AND
FAR NORTHERN MO---ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERING MAX AXES AMONG THE
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE.  THE LATEST NSSL WRF IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS---ACROSS EASTERN NE---NORTHEAST KS INTO
NORTHERN MO---WHILE THE 0000 UTC ARW AND NMMB TRENDED FARTHER
NORTH FROM THEIR 1200 UTC MON RUNS INTO NORTHEAST NE---NW IA AND
FAR SOUTHERN MN.  THERE IS A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL QPF AXES FOR
THIS UPCOMING EVENT---LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE
DETAILS---BUT HIGHER FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  THE DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM
PREVIOUS CONTINUITY (WPC AND NDFD) KEEPING THE MAX AXIS OVER
EASTERN NE---FAR SOUTHEAST SD---IA AND NORTHERN MO.  INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY  LOW LEVEL FLOW AFTER 0000 UTC
WED MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF TRAINING OF CELLS ACROSS THIS AREA
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WED.  IN AREAS OF
TRAINING---EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONCERNS CONTINUE--WITH A BROAD
SLIGHT RISK MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS.  IN AREAS OF TRAINING
ISOLATED 3-5"+ RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  AWAY FROM THE MAX
RAINFALL AREAS--GENERALLY MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS
DEPICTED INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST---SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST GA INTO NORTH FL

THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LYING FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DAY
1.  ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY---CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST REGION--INTO COASTAL AND
SOUTHERN GA AND INTO NORTHERN FL.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MAX
AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHERN FL
WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL EAST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE
FRONT AND STRONGEST CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST.  MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE HERE---WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS
WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 560095 562077 562059 561043 560037 561033 557010 554998
      552990 552979 553962 553957 552951 548928 545916 543898
      542893 542885 539874 538866 536859 532847 530835 526823
      524812 522809 522805 520803 514791 512786 509781 504771
      504757 505752 504744 505738 507733 509729 513727 518724
      521721 524714 522699 521690 519684 514673 512669 508668
      502666 498667 494671 488676 482687 476689 473693 469704
      469711 468716 466739 465742 465748 467763 469791 473805
      475811 476817 480829 482841 484853 483866 482880 479875
      476869 472859 470858 466863 465867 466874 466881 468885
      473892 474896 475899 475903 469904 465902 458898 454895
      450892 443885 437880 430875 423870 419867 416867 405871
      398877 391883 385891 384897 384903 381905 378904 374903
      371900 365896 361894 358890 352883 350881 348881 343882
      341884 338884 331884 323881 316875 316868 316864 317862
      324855 344849 350848 354846 358839 362832 365827 363824
      362822 363819 364816 366811 364811 359812 356814 352817
      350816 348813 342807 337806 332806 333787 328782 325779
      321780 316780 313783 309793 306796 300797 290799 284795
      276792 267790 260788 255789 252791 245797 239805 238809
      238815 238821 241823 248821 251816 255819 260824 257829
      260834 262838 266841 273843 274847 277850 282857 285862
      287867 289870 289876 290886 289891 289896 290901 291908
      290922 288932 285943 284953 285958 288960 296965 306967
      316962 320955 320949 318945 314937 313927 319918 326912
      333910 334914 335921 336927 339930 346938 350945 351951
      350955 349962 348967 345976 336982 329989 324995 320002
      316010 312020 306025 299029 292034 287037 282039 271038
      260036
 0.01 260036 247030 241027 238028 237031 229042 228045 228050
      228055 230059 237068 233073 233081 233085 235088 240092
      250099 257103 260105 264105 271104 279105 289099 299086
      306076 312070 317066 321067 323069 325075 327081 329088
      332105 333112 336118 339125 341128 342133 346136 351137
      355140 358141 360143 359144 356145 357148 360154 364157
      367164 367173 362179 360182 362185 367189 374193 378195
      382195 385191 380178 379176 380174 382172 390170 394165
      396154 397143 399136 400126 397118 397112 402109 407103
      406097 403090 402085 405083 409080 414075 417067 418061
      417056 410047 412039 410037 407037 404039 400037 397036
      395032 393026 390022 383017 377017 374021 373024 372029
      373033 371038 368044 362050 356047 349045 347042 346039
      343035 344031 347026 356020 367012 369008 367005 359004
      360001 362998 366997 370997 398999 405996 411993 424990
      436987 452986 459985 467985 479990 483990 486993 491998
      492002 490002 483005 477007 471011 468018 468021 469023
      471026 475027 483028 496028 502026 502035 501041 500044
      499055 494072 493076 492082 490094 490101 491104 493111
      495115 495120 494125 493129 491127 488126 483128 484136
      485141 488142 493149 494155 495159 496162 500163 507164
      511165 515166 517169 521171 523174 527176 530178 533179
      536177 541174 548159 551152 552143 554135 555122 560095
 0.25 551053 552043 551037 550020 549004 547991 544977 542963
      541947 538933 532906 529892 525882 522878 519876 513875
      508876 504880 502885 498894 490916 488923 486927 481934
      475944 474951 476956 480957 484956 488955 494957 498959
      501962 505975 507988 507999 508008 509014 514025 514034
      513042 509053 506067 503081 503087 506091 515094 520094
      524091 531083 536075 541066 544062 549061 551053
 0.25 538150 538145 537142 533138 528135 523131 518129 515129
      514132 513137 513141 516146 521151 525155 530157 534155
      538150
 0.25 499801 499789 498778 497767 496755 495744 493733 489716
      486707 484705 481705 477710 474717 474727 474735 476744
      478754 482771 484780 488788 494802 496804 499801
 0.25 459966 459959 457951 453945 449940 445934 442926 439919
      436914 432907 430904 426902 422898 418892 414887 408882
      403883 399887 397896 397908 393924 387927 385929 382928
      375926 373927 371930 372938 375947 374952 373955 370963
      372967 377966 385966 388968 391972 393977 396984 403987
      411988 418987 424984 431982 443976 453972 457969 459966
 0.25 411057 402050 391045 385043 379044 374048 372053 371057
      368059 365063 371073 372080 374082 377084 382087 384083
      384079 385077 389076 394075 397069 401065 406063 411059
      411057
 0.25 358122 357120 355118 354115 352113 350110 348108 346107
      343107 341109 339111 340115 342116 344118 345120 348123
      352123 355124 358122
 0.25 331826 332822 329821 323822 317822 312820 309817 306816
      297819 285819 282821 283823 287825 295832 303837 313837
      324835 329832 331828 331826
 0.25 320052 322048 319047 313048 310043 307043 304042 304040
      300042 297046 292050 283053 272052 260049 247046 240047
      236051 237058 240062 244064 247069 248075 248078 249083
      254086 260088 265091 269093 276095 281094 286092 292084
      298075 300069 304065 310057 320052
 0.25 301876 302867 301859 298855 296847 295840 293838 290838
      288839 288843 290849 292855 294862 296868 297876 300878
      301876
 0.50 546038 546025 546013 544990 541981 539970 537949 535938
      533928 528910 525902 522894 517889 511887 507887 506890
      503901 501910 499918 497922 497927 498937 505952 507960
      509971 510983 511993 512004 515013 517022 519032 519037
      518043 516054 515065 517072 519077 521078 527075 531067
      534061 541049 544043 546038
 0.50 492764 491757 490749 489742 488735 486730 483730 483736
      483743 484748 486755 487760 490765 492764
 0.50 444959 444955 444951 442945 438937 433928 428921 421913
      415907 413902 411896 409891 406888 401890 400896 399908
      399916 398924 399938 399953 396965 400977 403981 407983
      411985 415984 424981 433978 436973 437969 444959
 0.50 407058 404054 399051 394049 388047 383049 381050 380053
      380062 382068 387070 392068 396064 400062 405060 407058
 0.50 323829 322827 318826 313824 307822 301822 294822 291825
      295829 300832 304834 310835 315834 320832 323829
 0.50 291075 292071 292067 290063 279061 268056 264055 259057
      250060 249065 251069 256077 259082 263084 273089 280088
      283086 289079 291075
 1.00 539030 540023 541016 539006 537995 536984 533963 531953
      527947 524945 521947 520958 517966 517975 520985 520995
      520005 522015 525036 525047 527050 530050 532048 534044
      538036 539030
 1.00 519942 518941 518939 517938 516936 515935 515936 515937
      516939 517940 518942 519942
 1.00 437954 435945 431940 422933 419931 418927 416919 413912
      410906 406907 404910 402917 402928 403938 404946 404956
      405967 407974 411978 415979 419978 431973 433964 435959
      437954
 1.00 400058 399055 397054 395053 394052 393052 392054 391054
      390057 391059 393060 395060 396060 397059 398058 400058
 1.50 432957 433952 432948 430944 422938 418935 415931 412918
      410916 408916 405922 405928 405933 408947 407955 409962
      410969 414972 420971 424969 428965 430961 432957
 2.00 423961 423956 422954 421949 419947 417942 414936 412931
      408929 409936 410945 409954 412959 416964 419964 421963
      423961

$$





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