Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 170625
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
124 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 17/1200 UTC THRU DEC 18/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NEW ENGLAND...

THE SHEARING-OUT SRN STREAM TROUGH DEPARTING THE MID-ATL REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING IS BEGINNING TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE
DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH/UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE
TWO STREAMS WILL PARTIALLY PHASE TO ALLOW A TRIPLE POINT COASTAL
LOW TO FORM NEAR THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND RIDE UP THE
COAST ON WED... WHILE THE NRN STREAM UPPER LOW TRACKS WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT A FLURRY OF MDT
TO HEAVY QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW AND A
WELL-DEFINED/EXPANDING COMMA HEAD TO TRACK FROM NH THROUGH DOWN
EAST MAINE. THIS IS WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AREAL AVG
QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES... MAINLY RAIN BUT A STREAK OF
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS WRN/NWRN MAINE. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM... EXPECT
LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/RE-ENFORCING THERMAL ZONE  SLICING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS IS WHERE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWFALL CAN BE ANTICIPATED
WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF EXPECTED OFF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE TUG-HILL
PLATEAU.

...CENTRAL/SRN CA TO SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...

THE COMBINATION OF MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES... ONE OF THE DESERT SW AT
THE MOMENT AND ANOTHER MORE ELONGATED FEATURE ARRIVING INTO
CENTRAL/SRN CA... WILL PARTIALLY MERGE AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION BEFORE EJECTING OUT INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY ON WED INTO THURS MORNING. THE
SYSTEMS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM AT THE MOMENT ARE CAPITALIZING ON
MODEST PAC MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MDT QPF AMOUNTS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER VALUES... ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL SOUTH
CENTRAL CA AT THE MOMENT AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SAN JUANS
MTNS. AS THE JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE INTO THE PLAINS TO INTERACT WITH
INCREASING RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN SWATH OF
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM KS/OK AND TX INTO MO/AR. THE
SRN TIER OF THIS SHIELD WILL BE MAINLY RAIN WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF
NEAR THE TX/OK RED RIVER... WHILE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVERRIDES INTO
THE COLD SECTOR TO THE NORTH FOR POSSIBLE FROZEN PRECIP FROM KS
INTO MO. OVERALL WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS ON MASS
FIELDS FOR THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM AND A BLEND OF HI-RES GUIDANCE WITH
THE ECMWF/INTERNAL PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR QPF.

...PAC NW/NRN CA...

ONE DECAYING UPPER SHEAR AXIS ARRIVING TO THE WA/OR COASTLINE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPSTREAM ELONGATED SHEAR ZONE WILL KEEP VERY
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW INTACT ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO NRN CA ON WED.
EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN BUT
OTHERWISE AREAL AVG AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.


MUSHER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 481616 484624 487634 492651 494664 493673 490680 488684
      488691 491699 493703 496706 499712 503718 505722 505727
      505737 504761 502802 501809 498818 495828 492838 488856
      488866 488871 486875 486888 484898 481906 477912 473908
      468908 467905 459895 450880 440870 436864 434855 433844
      432839 431837 429833 429826 428816 426810 422809 416811
      415807 413803 406800 400802 395802 387804 382809 380807
      381804 386797 397789 408782 412780 414776 417774 417768
      414759 414753 415750 419749 419744 417740 417735 418731
      417726 416716 415710 413706 411702 407698 402696 392697
      386697 378698 366694 364692 365687 367679 370672 376666
      384658 389654 390646
 0.01 517270 516260 517256 516251 514238 508230 498214 493209
      491207 492200 493196 498195 501192 504187 506185 506182
      504174 502169 498166 492158 492153 493148 492142 488139
      484135 479134 476135 474136 475139 479140 482144 482151
      478154 473155 469151 468148 465147 460149 460155 462159
      462163 460165 456165 451158 445153 442149 437148 436151
      436154 434155 432156 432159 434161 437163 440161 441164
      443169 446172 449177 450180 448185 443186 439183 435174
      434168 433164 427163 423164 420163 419161 416160 419164
      425170 426175 429179 429182 426184 422181 419178 414177
      411178 408178 408183 410185 415186 416190 414192 412198
      406207 401205 397203 392199 388199 381195 375189 371185
      371178 375177 378176 381178 388182 392179 386173 376170
      374166 375161 376156 378151 378147 382147 384140 385136
      387134 385131 383130 384127 385120 383115 382107 386102
      393096 396089 401078 401074 400067 395058 392037 395031
      400025 404021 404016 398015 398006 402997 408991 414982
      416971 413959 409947 400902 392888 387882 385871 384866
      380862 373855 367849 363843 361845 361850 360856 359862
      357867 354877 352883 348886 345895 338899 335899 333902
      331906 326914 324919 324926 317933 316937 312942 305941
      303936 299934 295934 294937 294942 295947 292949 291955
      290957 287956 285960 283968 287971 289976 290981 290985
      290990 288993 286991 282990 278993 270996 263996 259998
      255999 255002 257004 263005 272006 278009 289010 293012
      299013 305015 308019 311026 317025 322027 330032 335031
      342031 346035 347039 349042 353042 357045 358052 357055
      357061 356065 355068 352073 348077 344077 343073 342067
      341062 340058 335058 328057 326059 329062 333061 337065
      340069 341074 341081 337085 331084 328083 324085 319084
      318087 314091 314094 315098 314101 306104 303117 305127
      308129 311130 314128 317124 321119 323117 325116 328117
      326122 326128 328129 330123 333119 336121 337123 337133
      336137 341141 345151 342160 341165 336165 328162 320157
 0.01 320157 312154 305152 303157 309163 315168 316170 314173
      312178 313181 315183 319183 326182 332185 343187 346189
      350191 359194 363199 371203 375205 377207 375208 369210
      362211 358213 358216 358221 362223 366230 370235 386243
      401246 419253 427256 434255 450255 463255 482261 489265
      494270 501276 505277 509276 514274 517270
 0.01 477180 475175 472178 470182 467185 458187 457191 462193
      462198 460200 458204 454206 450207 447211 449215 453215
      460212 462208 466205 472198 474194 475187 476182 477180
 0.01 451102 450097 448097 443098 440096 438099 435102 433107
      437108 440111 441115 443120 445118 447114 448107 451103
      451102
 0.01 404118 404116 403114 399113 398113 396115 394119 393121
      393126 395126 395124 397122 399118 402118 404118
 0.01 387034 384027 377026 374026 372024 368024 367028 369034
      367039 366041 366045 368046 369043 373041 374044 378045
      383044 385041 385036 387034
 0.01 358181 359178 358177 358176 357174 355174 353174 352175
      351176 349176 347175 346176 346178 347180 348183 350185
      351184 352183 353182 354181 356181 357181 358181
 0.01 364027 364023 363019 361018 359016 356014 353015 350018
      349020 347022 347026 347030 348033 351035 355035 359034
      360032 362029 364027
 0.25 447628 450633 453636 458637 469622 476625 477628 477632
      475638 475644 478658 477670 476680 474705 474709 474717
      475726 474734 472738 470742 467745 464745 460743 455739
      442727 436723 429722 426714 423696 419688 414683 415675
      413670 409668 399680 390683 380687 375688 372686 372682
      374679 379671 382668 388666 396666 401661 406653 413648
      419643 423640 429635 436632
 0.25 512258 513252 512247 509239 505232 499228 496229 494233
      494243 492246 488246 486246 484249 485253 487256 491257
      497255 500255 504257 507259 511260 512258
 0.25 497776 497771 497766 494764 493767 490774 487780 485786
      483794 482801 482808 487803 489798 492792 494785 496779
      497776
 0.25 484219 484216 480214 475214 468214 465217 460221 456224
      460227 465229 470226 474222 478219 481220 484219
 0.25 447226 447224 446222 445222 444223 443223 442225 442226
      444226 446226 447226
 0.25 458778 456776 456770 456764 456761 453760 450760 448759
      447756 444752 441749 437750 433753 431756 432762 437771
      439774 442779 444782 448779 447768 448768 451773 458778
      458778
 0.25 433244 432237 434230 436227 436224 431219 422221 417217
      413215 409216 405214 398210 395208 391207 390212 392215
      397219 399221 398225 394230 394232 396235 408242 414243
      420245 425246 429247 432245 433244
 0.25 390232 388229 387229 385230 386232 388232 390232
 0.25 390091 390079 390075 387073 378075 369071 366069 360069
      359073 360078 361087 357091 356094 361096 367095 373089
      377091 380094 385095 388093 390091
 0.25 391959 391954 390949 391940 389937 387941 386945 382948
      379950 378955 375961 369968 366965 365961 368952 371945
      373933 373927 373920 371916 367914 360913 343919 340926
      338934 328947 322953 317957 312965 312967 316966 318968
      317973 316977 317982 319984 324986 330991 337989 343986
      358994 365996 368992 364992 363989 363982 365978 366977
      368978 369984 368989 371990 378988 382985 384979 391959
 0.25 362188 360187 358187 357186 355186 354186 355187 356189
      358189 360189 362188 362188
 0.25 353142 354140 354137 353135 353133 352130 351129 349128
      348130 348132 348134 349135 349136 350139 352139 351141
      351144 352144 353142 353142
 0.25 344116 343111 341107 340102 339098 335097 334101 330104
      328104 328107 331110 333112 338115 342117 344116
 0.25 332173 333171 332169 330168 328170 327172 328172 329174
      331173 332173
 0.25 321106 323104 322102 321101 321102 319104 318106 319107
      321106 321106
 0.50 511252 511250 510249 509248 508246 508245 507243 506242
      505241 504239 502240 502241 501243 501245 502246 502249
      502250 504252 505254 507255 508255 510254 510253 511252
 0.50 473665 472657 470652 468645 465642 460643 456643 452641
      447638 445635 440637 436640 434642 433645 428652 428655
      429659 432662 438668 438673 435679 430687 428700 429711
      429717 431721 436720 440718 446717 451714 457708 461705
      464700 467692 469679 473665
 0.50 423241 422240 421239 419239 417239 419240 420242 422241
      423241
 0.50 412226 413224 414222 414219 413219 412219 411219 410219
      408220 407222 406224 406227 407228 408229 410229 411228
      412227 412226
 0.50 361938 358935 352938 344943 341945 336949 332953 329958
      326971 329984 332985 333984 339981 348974 349968 347960
      348952 350947 352944 354943 360941 361938
 1.00 464657 463652 460650 455652 453656 448665 447668 447675
      449678 454680 454683 451687 450691 452696 455696 458692
      459687 458684 461681 462678 461673 461669 463663 464657
 1.00 444693 444691 444688 442686 441686 440687 439688 438690
      438691 437692 438695 438696 439697 440698 442697 443696
      443694 444693
 1.00 440706 440704 439703 438702 437702 436702 434702 433703
      433705 433706 435707 436707 437707 438708 440707 440706

$$




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