Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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442
FXUS04 KWBC 271855
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 28/0000 UTC THRU JUN 29/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

A LOW TO MEDIUM AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DRIVE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
TO NEAR MINNEAPOLIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CLUSTER REASONABLY WELL IN THEIR QPF...ALTHOUGH
THE CONVECTIVE...SUMMERTIME...MODE OF THE EVENT WILL INTRODUCE
SOME UNCERTAINTY AT SMALLER SCALES. ONE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH
ANY LONG LIVED CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP GIVEN VERY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND LESS THAN PREMIUM MOISTURE. THE MOISTURE SHOULD
IMPROVE...HOWEVER...WITH A SURGE NOTED IN THE EARLY MORNING
SOUNDINGS OVER OKLAHOMA...AND THE GFS POOLS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.50 INCHES OR MORE IN THE EARLY CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
ALONG THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. STORMS
SHOULD...THEREFORE...BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE IN COVERAGE WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT AS BOTH FORCING AND INCIPIENT COLD POOLS ARRIVE
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS...ENCOUNTERING LESS CAPPING AND STRONGER
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM EASTERN SD/NE EASTWARD. RELATIVELY
STRONG FORCING WILL EXTEND THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE CAPE AXIS WILL BE A BIT MORE NARROW THERE.

GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LARGE TEMP / DEWPOINT
SPREADS...EXPECT SOME PROGRESSIVE CELL MODES...WITH THE RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING DEPENDENT ON SLOWER MOVEMENT DURING EARLY
DEVELOPMENT...OR SMALL SCALE TRAINING THAT MAY OCCUR ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.

SOME GUIDANCE THAT HAD BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD
EXTENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS NOW ADJUSTED BACK NORTH AND WEST A
BIT...AND WOULD BETTER SYNC WITH THE DEEP LAYER FORCING IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LATE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN REPLACING THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS THAT HAD BEEN IN
PLACE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. WPC FAVORED A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM
CONUS NEST...GFS...AND OUR IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED
ENSEMBLE. THIS BROUGHT THE QPF PATTERN INTO A MORE TIGHTLY FOCUSED
LAYOUT OVER IA/MN/WI...ALTHOUGH MAGNITUDES DID NOT CHANGE
MUCH...WITH MAINLY 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES ON AVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE
BETTER ORGANIZED AREAS.


...GULF COAST...

A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD EXISTS ALONG THE GULF
COAST...SITTING ATOP A STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO COASTAL TEXAS. THE SITUATION IS FAVORABLE FOR
DIURNALLY ENHANCED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST AND BROADER
AREAS OF RAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND AHEAD OF THE WEAKLY DEFINED TROUGH
AXIS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE WESTERN GULF /
TEXAS...WHERE THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE SOME INDICATION OF CONVECTION
AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE BEING SUFFICIENT TO FEEDBACK ONTO THE MID
LEVEL FLOW...DEVELOPING A BROAD CIRCULATION. ANY SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT THE BULK OF THE MORE
ORGANIZED RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZES
OVER MUCH OF FLORIDA...AND OFFSHORE OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA NEAR
THE DEVELOPING LOW CENTER. WPC QPF AIMED TOWARD CONSENSUS...WITH
HEAVIER WEIGHTS ON THE NAM CONUS NEST...WRF-ARW...AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES.


...NORTHEAST....

A SHARPLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING MOST CONCENTRATED FROM
NORTHERN VT/NH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY FORM AS FAR SOUTH AS EASTERN VIRGINIA AND
MARYLAND. THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT THROUGH THIS
REGION BY MORNING...BUT SCATTERED TERRAIN ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 516166 517162 516159 514152 510141 510134 510125 507115
      503110 501109 498109 497107 493104 489100 486099 486095
      482094 482102 479113 480118 483123 486126 490125 495125
      499122 501123 500128 498133 489136 478136 476140 478147
      479152 481158 484161 490162 499160 506167 509170 512169
      516166
 0.01 524010 525992 525973 523967 522959 522949 520944 515936
      509930 503921 498914 494903 489890 483864 476842 470833
      467830 464828 455825 449826 444828 436834 433838 430842
      420858 416868 412877 408887 403900 396920 393931 387938
      383948 382953 381961 377972 377975 383978 386982 388987
      388991 387993 385998 391031 390043 394048 398052 415050
      414059 412065 418062 423058 427054 430057 433063 432070
      432078 433082 433086 431092 427096 425101 424108 422112
      421118 420123 418131 416137 415145 415152 416158 419162
      421162 422160 424142 425133 427127 431124 433128 432140
      433145 439146 445152 449161 452166 455167 460164 462161
      462157 463140 463126 463112 464098 471093 469091 471087
      475084 479083 485083 496084 500074 501065 499061 500058
      501057 505055 511049 514045 516039 519028 522018 524010
 0.01 505226 505224 506221 506219 506216 507214 507211 506209
      505208 505207 503207 501208 500209 499210 498211 498213
      497216 497218 497221 498223 498224 499226 501226 502227
      504227 505226
 0.01 492687 488675 482664 477659 469656 464655 458656 453658
      449662 446666 443671 441679 436682 429684 425686 421690
      420692 420697 422704 422709 426712 429717 430724 430727
      429729 431733 434736 437739 440742 438747 434751 432756
      424763 424768 427770 431773 434778 438778 444776 447773
      450768 453762 457760 460763 462768 465780 467789 466794
      465800 465807 471816 477823 480827 484830 488832 492831
      496827 498822 500816 499808 498791 497786 496778 492767
      487754 485748 483740 482725 489717 492710 493707 493703
      491693 492687
 0.01 492201 491200 489198 487199 487200 487201 489202 490202
      492201 492201
 0.01 484219 484217 483216 482215 481213 480213 479213 477213
      475213 475214 474216 475218 476219 478219 480220 481220
      483220 484219
 0.01 463243 463241 463240 462238 462237 460237 458238 457239
      456240 454240 452242 451245 451247 451248 453249 455249
      455248 456248 458247 459247 460246 461245 462243 463243
 0.01 429807 429800 428795 425793 421796 420799 418804 417809
      415814 414819 416823 420823 423820 427817 428812 429807
      429807
 0.01 424032 423029 421027 419025 418025 416025 414026 414027
      412027 411027 409028 410031 412031 414031 416031 417034
      419036 421036 422034 424032
 0.01 410031 409029 407029 405029 403028 402030 402032 403034
      405035 407033 409033 410031
 0.01 405067 405065 403063 402062 400064 400065 398067 398069
      397071 399074 401074 403072 403070 405068 405067
 0.01 394752 393743 391739 387739 386742 383747 380752 377757
      374762 374765 376765 380766 383765 390763 392762 393757
      394752
 0.01 375026 375019 374017 370016 367018 354024 348031 342035
      338041 339046 339052 334052 331051 324053 321060 322068
      326070 331071 337069 342062 348057 352050 356043 362038
      369035 373030 375026
 0.01 339823 338816 336812 333809 328809 319814 315812 313807
      314800 315795 317788 319776 320765 316758 313755 307756
      301763 296769 292773 286773 281775 278777 271781 268784
      265787 263792 259793 253795 249798 242803 242806 244807
      248807 250811 253818 260824 267827 275831 278831 279833
      277837 277840 279840 283843 285847 286852 287863 288869
      287876 285880 282883 275888 270895 263901 258909 254917
      251928 249938 247947 245954 242964 241971 244983 241987
      238999 240009 246017 249018 255019 262019 267022 270026
      274028 279028 283027 291023 294021 296017 296005 282996
      277994 280989 288985 291988 296990 299986 304971 318945
      317941 318936 319932 320927 321922 324917 327909 328903
      326899 326892 324886 318866 317859 318852 321843 326837
      333833 337828 339823
 0.01 317063 318061 317060 316058 314060 313060 312062 311064
      312064 313066 313067 315067 317065 317063
 0.01 317039 317033 314032 308032 305029 299029 297031 295035
      295042 296044 302045 306043 309041 315041 317039
 0.01 297084 298079 297076 293072 289067 282064 270060 265056
      259057 254060 251061 249064 249067 250070 253075 257080
      262084 266088 269094 273099 279101 286101 291098 293094
      293090 295086 297084 297084
 0.01 250822 250818 247814 244811 240811 236812 234816 234822
      237826 239829 243829 246827 248824 250822
 0.25 513999 514992 513987 511979 512969 512960 509952 506947
      498937 494932 490925 488916 486907 480894 475880 473871
      471862 467855 464849 458846 450846 445848 441852 433865
      426876 415903 407913 403928 397940 395946 392954 391962
      394969 397975 401981 403984 403988 405996 410000 413998
      415996 416993 420992 424999 434007 438007 439002 438992
      438988 442983 448979 454978 457981 458984 460991 464992
      467991 472987 476987 479990 476992 475996 473999 470001
      467004 464005 462008 463011 465014 469016 475013 478009
      483007 491007 495007 498009 500012 500016 498025 496034
      497038 499039 503036 507030 510023 511012 512005 513999
 0.25 481688 480679 478673 475669 471667 465670 461673 456682
      453687 451691 450698 452703 453716 457720 461721 465719
      469716 473713 476708 479696 481688
 0.25 482779 482776 482774 481772 481771 481769 480767 479766
      477766 476767 476770 477772 477775 477777 478780 479782
      481784 482781 482780 482779
 0.25 477047 477044 477043 475044 476046 477047 477047
 0.25 455115 455105 454095 455083 455076 454072 452069 445070
      446077 449085 450091 449097 447101 444103 443107 443113
      445116 448118 453118 455117 455115
 0.25 306789 306784 305781 302783 301785 300787 298790 297792
      297796 298800 299801 301800 304797 304795 305791 306789
 0.25 301852 300844 302835 304831 305827 304823 305819 305812
      301809 298809 288810 274801 267800 261801 258803 254808
      255811 258814 261817 266818 272816 274817 275823 280824
      284826 287829 290832 291839 294860 297870 299874 303874
      304866 302859 301852
 0.25 304903 301891 298886 292885 287887 283891 276898 273904
      270908 264915 255935 253941 252949 251954 248958 246964
      246970 249974 253977 257982 260984 264984 270980 274977
      279975 286969 294961 301954 303949 304941 303937 303928
      302920 302912 304903
 0.25 289789 290787 290784 288783 287782 285783 283784 282786
      283788 284789 285789 286790 287790 289789 289789
 0.25 283084 284080 283078 281075 278074 274074 271073 267074
      266076 268079 270080 272083 273085 275086 277086 281085
      283084
 0.25 263998 262995 260993 259992 255991 253992 251995 248994
      246996 245000 246002 248004 250006 253007 255006 256002
      258001 261000 263998
 0.50 508996 508991 506988 502984 501980 502975 502972 504970
      506964 506956 504951 500947 496943 491940 481935 477938
      474942 470945 466943 462938 462935 463932 468930 471930
      471927 468925 467919 470909 473903 472893 470887 469879
      467869 465863 462853 458852 455853 449855 440862 436874
      430883 424905 416911 412913 408919 406933 401944 397954
      395961 398966 401972 405976 409977 414975 418977 421982
      425992 427997 430997 432994 432985 434979 438975 442973
      446971 452971 464973 474977 482980 494985 498989 500995
      502998 504000 508996
 0.50 504026 504025 504024 503023 502024 501024 500026 500029
      499031 501033 502032 503031 504029 504027 504026
 0.50 466684 468682 466679 465680 464681 463682 462683 461685
      461686 460688 460689 462689 463688 464688 465687 466684
      466684
 0.50 301817 300813 295813 290813 284814 282817 281820 283823
      286825 289828 291830 294831 296830 294825 293823 294820
      298819 301817
 0.50 300945 300942 300938 298933 298920 296908 293899 289895
      286896 282898 280902 268917 263925 259933 256943 255954
      250963 249967 252971 259976 262978 265976 273970 274966
      277963 282962 287960 294955 298950 300945
 0.50 273805 272804 268803 265803 261804 260806 258808 258810
      260813 262815 264815 265813 265810 269808 271807 273805
 1.00 460891 459886 458882 454884 453887 448893 443898 439905
      439910 439916 442923 445930 449930 451928 454920 457913
      459903 460893 460891
 1.00 458962 456958 454956 452949 448942 446941 443943 440950
      437951 433951 429945 428941 426938 420937 418939 419944
      420948 418950 413954 411957 412962 417965 424968 429971
      432972 434970 439966 443961 449957 453963 457963 458962
 1.00 295926 295921 294916 290910 287909 283910 279914 268924
      264930 261937 260946 262954 259960 254966 253968 256971
      262972 262966 264964 268958 270955 272953 275954 277956
      285955 289954 292952 292943 291935 295926
 1.50 425956 424956 423956 421956 419956 418956 418959 419960
      420961 421961 423961 424959 424958 425956
 1.50 292924 293919 291916 287916 285918 280923 274925 267929
      263935 262943 264947 266949 276948 283947 285944 286939
      288931 292925 292924
 1.50 260970 259968 258968 257968 255968 257970 259970 260970
 2.00 282941 283937 281933 279932 277930 274929 272929 270929
      267931 266933 265937 264939 264943 266945 270945 274945
      277944 280943 282941
 3.00 275937 275935 274934 273933 272932 270932 269933 268934
      267935 268937 268939 270938 272938 274938 275937

$$





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