Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 240654
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 24/1200 UTC THRU AUG 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER
TO MID MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY---CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ON
THE NORTHERN END THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
LAKES---BUT NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT WHERE PW
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AND UVVS WILL BE ENHANCED BY A
STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING EAST NORTHEASTWARD IN THE WEST
SOUTHWEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

CENTRAL PLAINS---LOWER MO VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY
FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND
MID MS VALLEY REGION FROM IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST KS---FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA---ACROSS NORTHERN MO---FAR SOUTHERN IA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL IL AND NORTHERN IN.  THE COMBINATION OF THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT AND MOIST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG IT WILL
SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TRAINING POTENTIAL.  WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM AROUND 0000 UTC THU TO 1200
UTC THU---THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EXACT AXIS OF
THIS MAX PRECIP TO LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO THIS AXIS.
UNFORESEEN MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS WITH THIS EXPECTED ACTIVE
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAY GREATLY AFFECT PRECIP
DISTRIBUTION AWAY FROM THE SOLUTIONS OFFERED IN THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.  THE CURRENT EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND LOWER MO VALLEY IS AN EXAMPLE OF
THIS---WITH LAST NIGHTS GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING GREAT SKILL WITH THE
DETAILS ALTHOUGH THERE WAS AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HI RES ENSEMBLES AND
CONTINUITY...NDFD AND WPC---TO DEPICT A MAX AXIS FROM CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST KS---FAR SOUTHEAST NE---FAR SOUTHERN IA---NORTHERN
MO---NORTH CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN IN.  AREAL AVERAGE 1-2"
AMOUNTS DEPICTED--WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF 3-5"+ POSSIBLE IN AREAS
OF TRAINING.

THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER LAKES DAY 1 SHOULD SUPPORT A LESSENED CHANCE OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION---ALTHOUGH WITH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT---MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS STILL
POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE RECENT
PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  MOIST SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW---WITH UVV ENHANCEMENTS IN THIS MOISTURE AXIS FROM
SHORTWAVES IN THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT---WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION.  DETAILS WITH THIS
EXPECTED CONVECTION REMAIN LOW---BUT GREATER FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES.

ROCKIES

TWO STREAMS OF HEIGHT FALLS---ONE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE ROCKIES
DAY 1.  WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS.
 GREATEST PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES
WHERE PW VALUES ARE HIGHER THAN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN NM INTO CENTRAL
CO---WITH LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE TOTALS FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OF WY AND MT.

LOWER MS VALLEY---CENTRAL GULF COAST---FLORIDA

AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL BE PRESSING WESTWARD FROM
THE EASTERN GULF COAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST DAY 1.  DRIER
AIR OVER THE SOUTHEAST/NORTHEAST FL SHOULD REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES
THERE WITH GREATEST SCATTERED CONVECTION POTENTIAL FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  OVER FLORIDA---GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE
OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH FL---WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FAVORING
THE SOUTHWEST COAST FOR MAX AMOUNTS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 538196 539186 538178 537169 536162 534155 533147 534136
      534131 532130 527126 523126 520126 519130 517132 517137
      515147 514153 515161 517169 518175 521182 526194 530198
      534201 538196
 0.01 550993 551977 551961 550945 549929 548898 547882 545866
      543836 542830 541822 540803 537775 536741 535728 534723
      532716 529704 526691 518665 509647 504639 502637 500641
      493662 490659 487658 482662 477666 475671 476677 477686
      481695 482700 484706 483712 479714 470721 463725 457731
      450739 442745 430757 425765 419772 395800 389807 387810
      385814 380835 377846 377857 376862 377867 379874 377880
      374888 372897 371901 371908 371923 371939 371945 370950
      367963 362971 353984 347989 339995 325005 318009 310015
      303020 295022 289022 285024 280030 276032 270031 263029
      252026 243027 237023 230023 225052 225058 227062 227071
      230079 237084 255090 266092 274098 277098 280097 287094
      291094 295092 303088 306085 309089 315094 320097 321100
      325104 328107 339120 354130 361126 363123 361119 357110
      352103 347097 346091 346088 348086 355087 361087 364085
      372083 381081 388087 391084 392082 395080 397078 402077
      406077 410075 417072 420076 421081 424091 428099 433107
      443111 442117 440122 439126 439130 442133 447134 452135
      456133 474137 484139 484128 479109 477098 476093 471090
      466087 461088 459084 454076 451071 447068 439066 436069
      436071 439074 441079 435074 430068 427059 425052 425046
      424041 419039 413022 406002 406998 407993 410982 416959
      421941 422929 425918 429910 432908 436910 443906 450896
      451894 456892 459894 463898
 0.01 463898 467901 470905 480910 500919 503921 503926 502933
      499952 498958 495965 492980 490997 490002 491005 493011
      495028 495038 496046 496054 498062 502075 506078 513080
      518080 523076 531069 535067 537064 537059 541044 543035
      544026 550993
 0.01 369824 369820 367816 362813 354814 348819 338830 332833
      324837 318840 315839 311839 304836 298834 291830 286825
      284823 286819 294820 300817 309817 312816 314813 319806
      328796 332791 335789 338784 341779 343777 343772 341769
      338768 333769 330770 317778 311783 302785 293786 286785
      277785 268787 261789 253791 246794 241801 235812 233818
      233825 236838 239846 243853 245859 249865 254869 258875
      274900 276908 277917 283930 290933 292933 294930 297923
      303929 316935 318935 321933 327928 328926 328921 327913
      327908 328904 331895 332886 335880 338873 344868 348864
      353858 358853 363845 366835 369824
 0.01 354055 355047 355040 350036 346037 344039 340043 339045
      338049 336054 334058 334062 337068 342067 347063 351059
      354055
 0.01 327072 324065 324063 321061 319059 316058 314057 310056
      307057 306062 306068 308072 309079 308085 314083 316082
      319082 325078 325074 327072
 0.25 540898 541887 540877 539868 537858 531817 530795 529774
      528751 525727 524719 521712 517708 514708 510710 498729
      496722 492717 490724 490734 492754 498771 499770 501773
      503780 507797 509818 510831 509841 507859 505878 504886
      505895 507903 511911 517923 518932 518944 518949 517954
      514955 512958 510965 508975 506016 506025 509034 512040
      516043 522043 526039 533026 535021 536016 536009 535000
      534994 533989 528987 526981 526969 525957 530948 536933
      539916 540898
 0.25 522957 522955 520956 518955 518957 518960 519960 520959
      522957 522957
 0.25 466814 466808 461807 453810 444814 431815 420819 413824
      408826 405830 401841 394860 391872 390878 390885 389913
      387926 384940 382951 378960 373969 368978 363986 357991
      348997 338003 332008 326014 319021 316025 311027 292033
      275041 267045 261045 255044 246042 239041 234043 232045
      231052 232057 235061 248075 256080 265084 273085 278084
      282080 285075 286068 288062 290058 296052 304046 318035
      326031 336028 343024 348022 352022 361026 366025 367017
      387019 390016 393011 396007 398001 405979 412958 414947
      417932 418921 419912 420906 422902 426899 433898 437895
      441886 445877 453855 458848 458842 455837 458833 457830
      455829 452828 456824 463819 466814
 0.25 405058 401055 397052 391052 386053 380046 375043 371044
      362049 359052 359058 363063 367063 370064 373065 375063
      378059 382058 387055 390055 393057 397060 400060 405058
 0.25 357832 358828 356825 354826 351828 349830 348832 346834
      344836 344840 346842 348844 351842 353839 355837 356835
      357832
 0.25 303869 304865 302862 297861 291858 289857 286858 285860
      285864 287870 288879 289885 293891 296893 301891 303884
      303876 303869
 0.25 278821 275816 271813 267809 262807 256807 253808 253812
      256818 259822 261824 265825 271826 275826 278824 278821
 0.25 263798 262798 261798 259799 258799 259799 261800 263799
      263798
 0.25 251806 248804 247804 245805 243807 242810 240813 239815
      238817 239820 242819 244817 246815 248814 249812 250808
      251806
 0.50 535875 534866 532856 527841 525837 523834 519835 517844
      516853 514871 512881 513892 514901 516909 523920 526922
      529919 531912 533903 534893 535875
 0.50 439878 440871 439864 438857 436854 428852 426850 427847
      428842 433834 433830 431826 427825 421827 413830 407836
      405847 403857 400867 397877 395887 393898 392911 389933
      386945 383954 376971 371981 369984 369989 379002 382004
      388005 391002 394997 401981 405972 408961 410951 412941
      415915 419894 420888 423889 427892 430893 434892 437887
      439878
 0.50 374051 374050 374048 372047 371048 370048 369049 367049
      366050 365051 363052 365053 367053 368053 370053 371052
      372051 374051 374051
 0.50 347011 348006 345006 344007 342009 339010 336012 334014
      332016 331019 334021 338019 340017 341016 343015 346013
      347011
 0.50 278076 279069 278063 278050 267050 261051 254050 241049
      237050 235053 237059 240062 247068 256075 265079 271080
      276079 278076
 1.00 413891 414875 413872 410872 407875 404880 403887 400899
      397910 395924 392935 389947 380969 377980 377985 379990
      382994 385995 387993 390988 394985 400977 404966 410940
      410910 412900 413891
 1.50 409936 408924 403917 400919 398924 395933 392943 389952
      388958 388965 393974 395975 398972 402963 405954 408942
      409936
 2.00 407940 407931 403927 399931 396937 394943 392949 391956
      391960 394961 395963 396968 399966 402960 404954 406947
      407940

$$





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