Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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773
FXUS04 KWBC 180700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 18/1200 UTC THRU FEB 19/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...WESTERN U.S...

THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW SLAMMING INTO
SRN CA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING INTO NWRN
MEX AND THE SWRN US THIS WEEKEND. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LEAD
RIVER OF DEEP MOISTURE STEADILY WEAKENS AS WELL BUT REMAINS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
STILL FAVORABLE SUPPORT ALOFT/DIFFLUENCE WILL STILL FAVOR THE
SPREAD OF SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THAT COULD
LEAD TO LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES...WITH GREATEST TOTALS LIKELY INTO THE
MOGOLLON RIM REGION OF CENTRAL AZ WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ENHANCE UVVS AND AMOUNTS. SOME 1-3"+ AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOGOLLON RIM AREA WITH AREAL AVERAGE .50-1" OR SO AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST.

MUCH WEAKER NRN STREAM TROUGHING SPLIT OVERTOP ACROSS THE NWRN US
WILL HAVE MORE LIMITED DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH GIVEN
MODEST CONNECTION WITH SRN LATITUDE FLOW ALOFT AS PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR LOOPS...BUT STEADY NRN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS INTO LATER PERIOD
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM PASSAGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY MODERATE PCPN...INCLUDING TERRAIN ENHANCED
SNOW POTENITAL FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD TO THE NRN ROCKIES.

...SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

SLOW CLOSED LOW EJECTION ACROSS THE SRN/SERN STATES OFFERS
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE/LIFT ACROSS THE SERN U.S...BUT MODEST
LEAD SURFACE RESPONSE/WRAPPED MOISTURE INFLUX OUT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT PCPN WILL SPREAD UPWARD FROM THE
REGION INTO THE TN VALLEY AND S-CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC...WITH SOME MODERATE AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
OVER FAVORED SRN APPALACHIANS TERRAIN. BANDED LEADING EDGE HEAVIER
CONVECTION POTENTIAL MAY BE OUT FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
N-CENTRAL FL WHERE PWS COULD POOL UPWARDS TO 1.5". MODELS ARE NOT
OFFERING MUCH IN THE WAY OF HIGHER TOTALS...BUT SOME SPOTS COULD
SEE SOME 1" AMOUNTS WITH ANY TRAINING.

...NORTHEASTERN U.S...

NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE CLIPPING NRN NEW ENGLAND AND
LEAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
LIGHT WINTERY PCPN FROM NRN NY ACROSS VT/NH/MAINE DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE.

SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 19/12Z
 0.01 532187 530185 531181 532181 531178 527166 521157 516147
      512143 505140 494135 488133 484131 479128 475124 464126
      462128 459126 456122 454109 453102 450097 450094 447094
      439092 435091 428091 427093 430099 425103 424108 423111
      417112 413107 412101 410093 412085 415082 420072 419069
      414064 411059 406060 402060 399062 394064 388066 387068
      383069 372062 368061 366061 365066 356071 352072 348070
      343065 339060 329055 314053 308051 300050 299057 303061
      306064 312067 316071 315078 307082 295084 293083 291087
      287084 279076 279078 281081 284086 286091 284093 283098
      282103 284109 290116 299121 302123 301126 297132 293135
      291138 291140 292149 296154 304161 314169 322176 328184
      331195 335199 337205 340211 343214 354221 360224 369227
      380234 385236 390241 396248 401251 406254 413255 415255
      417257 409265 410269 415271 417273 428282 434284 441284
      445284 451284 455281 458276 460270 459266 455253 465253
      471252 479254 492262 497263 498257 498253 496248 494246
      494241 494238 492236 492231 494228 498230 500233 504235
      506234 507229 505221 505214 504206 504197 504194 507193
      512189 522187 528188 532187
 0.01 507711 506697 505692 503688 500678 498667 496653 494644
      489637 483633 476630 474629 470630 467638 466647 468650
      469653 469660 468669 466674 463673 458674 454673 451674
      449677 447677 443682 442687 443691 445695 449697 453698
      455701 454704 446707 443710 439711 434713 434715 438717
      442717 446717 446720 445722 441726 448729 453729 457727
      460731 461736 462741 466740 472733 474733 476735 476739
      479745 481749 484751 486753 489749 491747 493748 495752
      499758 504758 506755 508751 509742 507727 505722 506715
      507711
 0.01 480196 479190 477184 474182 472182 468185 461191 457195
      455199 451202 448201 442198 440193 436197 436201 438204
      441207 443210 446210 455208 464204 472200 480196
 0.01 395796 394789 392785 387781 382775 378768 376767 372770
      369772 368776 369789 368796 367802 363809 358815 354816
      351815 343813 340811 337808 331801 330797 332794 337786
      343779 346773 350766 356761 363756 371752 378748 376743
      373740 365736 360737 357736 343742 327750 312761 288780
      274792 257799 254801 252802 252804 254807 259806 263805
      267805 269810 268815 267824 266834 262843 261852 264862
      261869 257884 256893 259900 262904 266905 273899 279893
      283887 288882 291881 294881 296885 300885 312885 322884
      328883 332885 340889 341894 340899 340902 344904 346906
      348905 363895 369889 374882 376878 378872 379869 379862
      378852 377848 379846 381841 382835 381823 381817 382812
      385807 388804 392800 395796
 0.01 309017 309013 308011 304008 301003 300998 304993 308988
      310984 308977 303976 299976 297978 288983 281984 279986
      278989 282993 286996 289997 289001 289005 290008 293012
      298017 307018 309017
 0.25 516164 518161 517158 515154 510151 506149 502149 499149
      496152 492160 488164 483162 475157 467156 460153 453151
      450148 448143 446135 446125 446117 448113 448109 446106
      444106 440108 439111 435118 430125 426132 429138 430147
      430154 432157 437163 442168 446174 448177 446184 447191
      451191 455188 460183 461178 458175 457170 459168 465164
      481166 485168 485172 492174 497175 499173 506170 511166
      516164
 0.25 494705 492699 490693 488688 485684 482685 481690 480694
      479700 479706 480711 483715 485714 488710 491706 494705
 0.25 483718 482716 481715 481716 482718 483719 483718
 0.25 466242 465238 463235 459232 459227 464222 467219 468215
      460215 452216 445217 437218 431221 427230 424232 420232
      415230 413229 410230 406236 404241 406244 412249 421248
      436246 443246 450244 457243 466242 466242
 0.25 453270 452266 448263 444261 439261 435260 431261 428264
      429269 433273 438274 443274 447273 450272 453270
 0.25 402211 400209 399208 397207 395206 394205 393205 392204
      390203 389203 388203 389204 390205 391206 392207 393208
      395209 395210 397211 398212 400212 402213 402211
 0.25 407114 407109 404106 397108 390110 382105 378105 376109
      372115 369117 364118 358117 354115 349108 346101 345091
      340082 337080 333078 329079 327083 322089 317090 313090
      305089 298090 287097 288106 292112 300116 310119 313122
      313126 311134 313138 316141 324146 334148 342151 349155
      352158 358160 362163 367163 374163 381160 386160 391158
      393154 393152 390144 390139 390136 396127 401119 404115
      407114
 0.25 372188 371186 370185 368183 367183 366182 365182 363183
      361183 360183 361184 362184 364185 366185 368186 369187
      371188 372188
 0.25 348201 348198 347196 346194 345192 343193 343195 344198
      345200 345201 347203 348201
 0.25 344175 344171 342168 338168 334166 331164 325162 320161
      317164 321165 325167 330170 335171 339172 342176 344175
 0.25 344752 344749 342750 340753 335757 322768 310777 302782
      295786 289791 286796 279813 276820 274827 272836 270845
      270856 269864 265882 264888 265893 270890 275884 279876
      283869 286863 291857 296849 299841 296834 298826 298821
      295816 298810 302804 308799 315794 321790 326785 335771
      340762 344752
 0.25 327861 324859 318859 313859 310861 306865 304868 305872
      308873 314874 317872 321868 323866 326862 327861
 0.50 456239 455238 453237 452238 453239 454239 456239 456239
 0.50 450239 449238 447238 446239 444240 445241 447241 449240
      450239
 0.50 450220 449219 447219 443219 441220 438221 436221 433222
      432224 434225 436225 439225 442225 444224 446223 449222
      450220
 0.50 449163 450160 449158 446154 445150 444142 443139 441134
      439132 436133 435138 435145 436150 438153 441158 444161
      447163 449163
 0.50 391119 389115 386113 383113 380114 375120 368124 365125
      361123 356119 351113 346107 343099 341092 338084 334082
      332083 330086 330097 325101 319104 312100 306095 303094
      298094 294099 291102 291105 293106 299111 304114 312116
      320115 324113 326114 330120 332127 330131 325131 318133
      315134 317137 324140 335142 348149 354155 360159 365160
      368159 373155 379151 378139 378134 380130 383127 391119
 0.50 333767 332764 330765 325769 315776 307783 303787 297790
      293792 290797 288803 289807 293805 301799 310791 320786
      324782 327777 333767
 0.50 290831 290826 289824 286823 282825 279829 277836 275840
      275844 275849 275852 273858 270872 269877 270881 274880
      279870 284860 287855 285851 283850 283846 285842 290831
 1.00 367153 365153 363153 361154 363156 364156 365155 366153
      367153
 1.00 350132 351126 352119 347112 343104 339095 337091 335093
      334097 332103 330107 330109 335117 337121 338126 342134
      345136 349134 350132
 1.50 346129 348123 348116 346112 344109 341104 339102 336099
      336102 335106 336110 338115 339119 341124 342127 346129
      346129
 2.00 345123 345120 345118 345117 345116 344114 343111 342110
      342109 341107 341106 339105 339106 339108 339111 339113
      340115 341118 341119 342120 343122 345123 345123

$$





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