Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FXUS04 KWBC 200935
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
534 AM EDT MON MAR 20 2017


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 20/1200 UTC THRU MAR 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...WESTERN U.S AND NORTHERN PLAINS....

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:

DEEP-LAYER WAA/MOISTURE WITHIN THE INITIAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT
(WCB) EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL SEGUE TO ANOTHER (MORE MERIDIONAL)
WCB ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING DAY 1. THIS AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING (REINFORCED)
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST...AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDS
THE TROUGH BASE AND APPROACHES SOUTHERN CA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD (12Z TUE). THE PERSISTENT BROAD-SCALE QS VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND ATTENDANT DEEP-LAYER WWA FORCING/MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
GENERATE ADDITIONAL MODERATE-HEAVY PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST OR...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN TIED TO THE
TERRAIN. THIS INCLUDES THE COASTAL RANGES...SHASTA/SISKIYOUS...AND
NORTHERN SIERRA...AREAS THAT WILL BENEFIT THE MOST AT THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME (PWS AOA 1.0").
AREAL-AVERAGE QPF TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2+" OVER
THE OROGRAPHICALLY-FAVORED RANGES...WITH THE ASSORTMENT OF
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (3-4
INCHES) ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN CA-SOUTHWEST OR RANGES.

FARTHER DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT BASIN...NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND
SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MOISTURE ANOMALIES ARE
JUST AS HIGH DESPITE THE LOWER PW ENVIRONMENT TO WORK WITH (CLOSER
TO 0.50"). THE DEEPENING MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THIS REGION
ALONG WITH THE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND A PERIOD OF LOW-MID LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS VIA THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK WILL GENERATE LIGHT-MODERATE PCPN TOTALS...GENERALLY
AVERAGING 0.25-0.50 INCH. THIS WILL ALSO INCLUDE A RELATIVELY
NARROW AREA ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS (PARTICULARLY FROM NORTHERN
NE INTO SD)...WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW (GRADUAL UPSLOPE) ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH.

MODEL PREFERENCES:

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A NON-GFS GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE...WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HIGH-RES MEANS (INCLUDING THE
HREF... IN-HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED HIGH-RES ENSEMBLE...AND PARALLEL
NBM) GIVEN THE BETTER SENSITIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE GFS
WAS A NOTICEABLY WET OUTLIER OVER FAR NORTHWEST CA AND SOUTHWEST
OR...DEPICTING A POCKET OF AREAL-AVERAGE TOTALS OVER 2 INCHES.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL:

MARGINAL ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND FAR SOUTHWEST OREGON...INCLUDING
THE COASTAL...SHASTA/SISKIYOUS...AND NORTHERN SIERRA RANGES
THEREIN. LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3-4"...THE BULK OF WHICH EXPECTED TO
FALL WITHIN 12-18 HOURS MON AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...WILL
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO LOCALIZED SHORT-TERM RUNOFF
ISSUES...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF MORE RAPID SNOWMELT.


...OHIO VALLEY / APPALACHIANS / MID ATLANTIC...

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL GIVE WAY TO SHEARED ENERGY/VORT LOBES WITH ENSUING FLATTENING
(ZONAL) FLOW ALOFT. THE DEGREE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT
BY THE BROAD RIGHT-EXIT REGION FORCING FROM THE STRAIGHT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK -- WHICH WOULD FAVOR INCREASED SUBSIDENCE.
BELIEVE THE COMPETING SYNOPTIC FORCINGS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
CONTINUED MODEL QPF DISCREPANCY...BOTH IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS AND
LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT. MOREOVER...THE MODELS ARE EXHIBITING
DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT EARLY THIS AM
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHICH IS FEEDING OFF ELEVATED MUCAPES
NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-8C/ KM
BETWEEN 700-500 MB) ARE CHIEFLY RESPONSIBLE...WHICH IS ANOTHER
COMPONENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A BROAD...STRAIGHT UPPER JET
STREAK.

DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR MODEST QPF TOTALS FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY
INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS (WITH THE UPSLOPE
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW)...BUOYED AT LEAST TO SOME DEGREE BY THE
MODEST MOISTURE ANOMALIES ALONG WITH THE STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. PER THE SREF AND GEFS...BOTH PW AND 850-700 MB
MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN A ROUGHLY
W-E CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL IN INTO CENTRAL OH... WHERE
AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.50-1.00 INCH
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDERNEATH THE STRONGEST ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

MODEL PREFERENCES:

A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF...UKMET...AND RGEM...ALONG WITH HIGH-RES
MEANS (HREF...IN-HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED HIGH-RES QPF...AND PARALLEL
NBM) GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION. THE GFS IS A DRY OUTLIER
ACROSS IL-IN-OH...WHILE THE NAM AND PARALLEL NAM ARE TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE HEAVIER QPF.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL:

MARGINAL FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF IN EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL OH. AS NOTED FROM MULTIPLE HIGH-RES CAMS...THE
AFOREMENTIONED ELEVATED CONVECTION DROPPING INTO IN-OH MAY BRING
ISOLATED TOTALS AROUND 1.5+ INCHES WITHIN 3 HOURS OR LESS
TODAY...CLOSE TO IF NOT EXCEEDING THE FFG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WHEN THE WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE 850-300 MB MEAN WIND (SUPPORTIVE OF CELL
TRAINING).


DAYS 2 AND 3...


...WESTERN UNITED STATES....

AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST ON DAY 2...A LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO
CA...WHERE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH COMES ASHORE ON DAY 3...REACHING THE GREAT BASIN
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD RESULT IN
HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 3 AS WELL. THERE ARE
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY DURING DAY 2. IN AN ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE SOME
OF THE DIFFERENCES...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/GFS.

AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEARING THE WEST COAST WILL FOCUS 1.00/1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR (WHICH IS BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN) IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE IN CA...MAINLY BELOW 22/00Z. WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS NOT QUITE ORTHOGONAL TO THE SIERRA NEVADA
RANGE...THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN AXIS OF 2.00 TO
2.50 INCHES OF QPF...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE RANGE. SNOW LEVELS START FALLING DURING DAY
2...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE A FLOOD THREAT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHERE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD VALUES
ARE AS LOW AS 2.00 TO 2.50 INCHES...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS
HIGHER (AS STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTRODUCE A CONVECTIVE
ELEMENT TO THE QPF). RUNOFF ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE...SO A MARGINAL
RISK REMAINS IN PLACE FOR DAY 2.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE MOISTURE PLUME BECOMES FOCUSED IN A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST 25 KNOT FLOW ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN CA.
THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CA COASTAL RANGE...AS WELL AS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAIN RANGES. THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE (AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS) COMBINES
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY (DUE AT LEAST IN PART TO STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES) TO PRODUCE CONVECTION CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES. THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW MAY END UP BEING THE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT DUE TO THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS...A MARGINAL RISK REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR DAY 2.

THE FOCUS FOR DEEPER MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 INCHES) SHIFTS AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
AS IT COMES ASHORE OVER THE WEST COAST ON DAY 3. AHEAD OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CA AND WESTERN AZ...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATING
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT IS AUGMENTED IN THE
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A 110 KNOT JET STREAK CROSSING THE NORTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE ADDED LIFT
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD BE MORE ORGANIZED THAN DAY 2...AND
LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS WERE PLACED OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO
AND THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAIN RANGES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
00Z GFS WAS MUCH HIGHER WITH ITS QPF AMOUNTS HERE (AS HIGH AS
2.00+ INCHES)...AND THAT COULD BE DUE TO ITS STRONGER LOW LEVEL
INFLOW. IN ANY EVENT...THE DEEP MOISTURE AND BETTER INFLOW SUPPORT
A MARGINAL RISK FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA FOR DAY 3.

AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH COMES ASHORE...THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS AZ INTO THE GREAT BASIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES PEAK BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AZ INTO THE WASATCH RANGE IN UT...AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
SHOULD FOCUS SCATTERED CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AN AXIS
OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF QPF WAS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOGOLLON RIM IN AZ INTO THE SOUTHERNMOST WASATCH MOUNTAINS...AND
AGAIN THE 00Z GFS WAS HIGHER WITH QPF AMOUNTS HERE. THREE HOUR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THESE AREAS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 2.00
INCHES...SO WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

FURTHER NORTH...THERE WAS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR 0.50 TO 1.00
INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST CENTRAL NV...
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMES AN IMPORTANT QPF CONTRIBUTOR. SNOW
LEVELS HERE LOWER ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.
FINALLY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM CROSSES WA
STATE DURING THE LAST PART OF DAY 3. A 25 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS 0.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR TO
THE COAST...WHERE THE UPSLOPE SHOULD RESULT IN AXES OF 0.50 TO
1.00 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE OLYMPIC AND CASCADE RANGES IN WA.

HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES DURING DAYS 2 AND 3. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
SUITE OF WPC WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.


...CENTRAL PLAINS...

SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAY 2 INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL AGAIN INTERACT WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
MORE CONVECTION ON DAY 3. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF AXES...SO THE WPC
QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST ALONG A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING DAY
2. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FOCUSES
0.50/0.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN A STRIPE OF
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST SD ACROSS
NORTHERN NE INTO WEST CENTRAL IA.

A 25 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TRANSPORTS A FRESH INFLUX OF 0.75 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAY 3. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE FLOW...BUT THERE
IS A LACK OF MID LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THUS...QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS SD/NE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 0.25 INCHES ON DAY 3.


...MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOLED ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FEED ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS IT CROSSES FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY ON DAY 2...RESULTING IN HEAVY TO
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. LOW PRESSURE FORMING ON THE FRONT
DRAGS THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES ON DAY 3...AS THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WEAKEN. THERE WAS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON DAY
2...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS.

A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHERN MO ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY TO THE NC/SC BORDER ON DAY 2 BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR DEEP
MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.25 INCHES...WHICH
APPROACHES TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TRACKS ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM SOUTHERN MO INTO EASTERN TN. CORFIDI
VECTORS INITIALLY SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY
OUTFLOW DOMINATED...BUT TOWARD 22/00Z...THERE COULD BE A WINDOW
FOR TRAINING TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION HANGS UP ON THE
WESTERN END OF THE FRONT.

THERE REMAINS A MODEL SIGNAL FOR 1.50 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS EASTERN
TN...AND THIS IS PLAUSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IF TRAINING OCCURS (AS
DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GFS). THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO PLACES QPF MAXIMA
ALONG THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL PATH OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TN. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW
AS 1.50 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN TN...SO THE MARGINAL RISK REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR DAY 2.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE FRONT ALONG THE NC/SC ON A LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE ON DAY 2...AND THE LOW DRAGS THE FRONT
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. RESIDUAL CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN LOCAL
0.25 INCH QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA AND SC...MAINLY DURING THE
FIRST PART OF DAY 3.


...NEW ENGLAND...

STRONG SHORT WAVES IN THE VERY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR MAINLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 2. THE COLUMN IS DRY (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 0.25 INCHES)...BUT THE COMBINATION OF
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF
0.10 INCHES OF QPF IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS OVER NORTHERN NH AND
WESTERN ME.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


HURLEY/HAYES

24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 343274 372278 389278 396278 403279 411284 421287 425290
      432290 439289 444286 446284 448283 453288 455292 454298
      454307 455314 457317 459320 465324 473327 481327 488325
      493322 497318 501312 505305 509296 511285 511273 509264
      505249 504241 505231 504218 501212 495213 492213 490209
      491198 490192 491185 493163 492155 490147 482143 480144
      476144 474145 473142 473138 476132 479130 482132 487134
      489129 483123 477124 474125 472121 472105 470098 471089
      471085 470083 466080 465075 465070 466063 467050 468038
      468027 467019 466011 463007 459007 457011 454009 450993
      447986 443980 438973 435966 421937 418939 417943 415946
      415950 414958 413968 412976 407983 405986 404993 404003
      411007 413017 415025 415037 404043 401051 397057 391063
      387067 386076 387079 386081 391081 394084 394091 392095
      392099 394102 397104 396097 396091 398089 400085 403084
      406083 408085 406095 404106 401108 400106 398108 394112
      395115 399116 406116 410112 411105 411100 411094 412088
      415085 418084 422084 427080 430077 434077 435080 434086
      433092 430089 427088 424089 426095 429098 431101 426106
      428111 430114 427117 423122 424129 422131 422135 421145
      422150 422155 424162 424167 420171 416174 413179 416177
      419178 420181 419186 417188 408187 404187 400189 395193
      387192 373186 362181 359184 358187 356192 352193 350192
      347189 344189 341191 336194 331198 322206 310217 300228
      290239 317256 319254 322253 324251 326251 330249 332248
      334247 336247 340246 341248 339250 337251 335253 332254
      331254 330258 329262
 0.01 518790 516783 515778 513775 508775 504780 498790 494795
      492800 482824 477837 476845 477855 479860 482865 487868
      489869 490874 490883 488891 488898 490906 493911 497914
      500911 500901 499899 499894 500891 500886 506873 510859
      513843 514827 516811 518790
 0.01 467717 466709 464705 462703 460701 455701 450705 434729
      428732 422735 404738 396740 394742 390743 384742 380743
      377745 369747 365750 361756 359763 360776 362785 364791
      366794 365798 365803 364807 362812 357818 353824 351831
      350840 351859 351869 352875 354886 356890 356895 364927
      368932 372931 375928 375924 375918 377914 377906 378902
      378898 383880 388869 393886 396891 401895 404897 409897
      412896 415894 421883 423881 425877 426874 427869 427859
      430852 437840 436778 444769 448763 451757 458744 461736
      464730 466722 467717
 0.01 445646 439644 431647 425651 420653 418656 413661 412664
      413668 416670 419669 425663 431658 434657 437654 441652
      444649 445646
 0.01 436129 436122 433121 430125 428130 427134 426137 427141
      426146 427151 429156 429160 431159 432152 431147 432140
      434135 435131 436129
 0.01 415156 417154 415151 413153 411155 411157 409159 408161
      409161 411160 411159 413158 414158 415156
 0.01 307032 307030 307028 306028 305027 303027 302027 301029
      301032 302034 303034 304034 305034 306033 307032
 0.01 292027 293023 292018 291016 289015 285015 282015 280017
      280018 281021 283023 285024 288027 290027 292027
 0.01 276801 277797 275794 268794 262797 257799 252803 248806
      247811 253809 258806 265805 270803 276801
 0.01 235820 236818 236816 235815 234814 233813 231813 230814
      229815 228817 228819 229821 229822 230823 232823 234823
      234822 235820 235820
 0.25 491302 492296 491290 490282 490278 489271 487264 483254
      478245 470238 455220 452216 447214 443213 440214 436216
      426218 422221 418220 417214 414213 411212 406210 402206
      398203 392200 382195 377193 372193 366203 343203 336208
      332214 331219 332222 335223 339222 344224 345227 348229
      367240 372245 374249 380258 382262 386265 391268 398270
      410270 419271 429270 439268 450270 459270 466277 467284
      467291 465300 466307 469312 474316 480316 485312 488307
      491302
 0.25 459180 457177 455172 455167 454160 451158 446157 445162
      447165 448172 448177 447184 449186 451185 453182 457181
      459180
 0.25 463109 464105 464102 462095 460090 458084 458069 457062
      455057 454051 453044 452037 450032 447027 442026 439028
      436033 437038 440043 445053 446058 444065 441068 439072
      447080 451083 454088 454091 448094 446097 445101 444104
      442106 438107 443109 446114 448118 452122 455122 457120
      458116 459113 461114 463109
 0.25 432033 433028 433023 432018 431016 430013 429009 425009
      424013 424018 424022 424027 424032 424036 425039 427040
      429037 430035 432033
 0.25 417860 418854 417845 416838 414833 413822 413814 411810
      407800 406792 403788 396784 391785 387787 382795 378804
      371811 369815 370820 385828 383832 383836 383839 388847
      393857 397867 400879 404882 409881 412877 414872 417861
      417860
 0.25 377868 377866 377864 377862 376861 375860 374859 374860
      373860 372862 372864 371867 371868 371869 371871 371873
      372874 373875 373876 374875 375875 376873 377871 377869
      377868
 0.50 458254 460249 460244 458240 456237 451231 445228 434231
      427232 421231 415227 416217 409215 402209 397206 390203
      383204 384209 385212 387215 385216 379220 373221 366218
      364212 358207 352207 350211 352215 355220 362224 363227
      366229 373232 380245 386258 390263 395265 399266 413265
      426264 439261 450261 455258 458254
 0.50 413856 412842 410828 408822 405817 402816 399820 396832
      392833 389835 389837 394846 398859 401871 404875 407874
      409871 413861 413856
 1.00 432251 433246 431242 425237 418234 414232 413228 413223
      411220 407220 404217 398211 396210 394212 395215 397218
      405222 403225 400227 394229 388231 389238 392246 394254
      395257 399259 407259 420257 427256 432251
 1.00 409847 409845 407844 406845 407847 408849 409847 409847
 1.00 407836 407834 407832 405833 405834 405836 407837 407836
 1.00 405857 405855 405852 404850 402850 402853 402855 402857
      403859 405857 405857
 1.50 424244 424241 423239 422238 421238 419237 418237 417237
      416237 414237 413238 414239 415241 416241 416244 418245
      420246 421245 422245 424244 424244
 1.50 406241 405238 403237 401237 400236 398236 399238 400239
      401240 402242 402243 404243 405243 406241 406241
 1.50 400216 400215 398214 397215 398215 399216 400216

24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 540197 539187 535176 531167 525160 520152 514147 509143
      503136 503128 502123 504122 508109 507106 507097 506094
      501093 498090 493093 485098 477101 473102 471096 467090
      461091 456090 445088 436087 433085 427084 425082 427080
      429077 431073 431067 430064 432059 435055 438051 443049
      449049 453052 456049 458047 461042 467034 464026 463020
      460015 453005 443990 435973 432963 429953 425935 424928
      422921 419906 415893 411884 409882 406880 406876 403864
      401852 399847 396847 395844 394831 394823 392818 391810
      392803 390796 385797 383797 381795 381785 382776 384770
      383765 384759 384751 385739 384726 385721 384715 386701
      385696 386692 388691 391687 390678 389674 387673 383669
      377664 373662 370664 364667 361669 355675 346686 341693
      336700 331710 327721 323731 322743 313757 308765 308772
      309780 316783 321786 319790 319795 321800 322806 324809
      329827 331832 332838 333841 334846 337856 340861 343866
      347876 349888 352902 353910 351914 346923 346936 344940
      344947 344954 345959 347971 349976 350982 351989 353994
      355997 357001 360005 362007 366008 374015 378018 382020
      389027 391029 391033 390039 387041 384046 379048 379051
      381052 389057 395059 400062 402071 406082 410089 413094
      415098 414104 417107 419107 421110 419112 417112 412107
      409105 406105 401114 397118 392120 390121 389124 392126
      397127 399128 399132 396137 391138 384137 380138 374138
      370140 364146 355166 337163 332161 328162 323163 321166
      319175 314180 311185 310191 314194 311198 306204 301212
      301216 301223 304228 308230 312234 318236 330238 333238
      338240 337247 341250 349253 355252 359255 366269 372275
      380279 384281 390283 401285 424292 429294 432295 434294
      445297 451300 454301 456304 463309 483318
 0.01 483318 487321 490317 494314 498308 505298 509296 512290
      515284 518276 520270 521261 521251 521247 520243 518238
      516230 517225 519228 523232 526234 528232 530225 533219
      536212 540197
 0.01 515706 514695 512686 510678 509670 506662 501655 491654
      466662 453661 447660 443661 441665 439678 442683 445686
      450684 450693 445708 440713 435717 428724 426727 427731
      428733 432733 436734 437738 430740 423742 419745 418758
      418797 444759 448763 450768 451773 449779 450788 451795
      452798 455804 460809 464809 466827 467835 470840 474843
      480846 483847 487846 491841 493835 496829 503820 506814
      508806 511786 512769 513755 514745 515737 516732 515729
      513720 515706
 0.01 468880 468878 466876 466873 464873 464876 466878 466881
      468881 468880
 0.01 385079 385077 385074 385072 384070 384067 384065 384063
      382062 382063 380064 378064 378067 378069 379071 379074
      380074 381076 383079 385079 385079
 0.01 387970 387968 387965 386963 385961 385959 384957 382957
      380957 379957 377957 376958 375959 374961 373963 374965
      374967 375969 377970 379971 380971 382972 384972 386972
      387970
 0.01 294021 292016 289014 285014 280011 275007 262000 251996
      246993 238991 235991 233993 231995 232997 233004 236009
      247018 259021 276022 281021 290021 294021
 0.01 239819 238811 234812 232814 232818 233826 230830 228837
      227843 230848 236849 238844 237836 235830 236824 239819
 0.25 512281 514268 516256 514247 513239 509229 505219 503210
      503205 504202 506200 511199 518200 521199 521196 518188
      516185 513183 510180 507176 501170 499167 495164 486164
      482161 481157 478152 472151 466151 461149 454146 449139
      443133 433145 432153 434160 442175 446184 448194 448197
      446201 441205 436209 430211 415208 409203 400199 388191
      377183 368180 361180 357181 352182 348181 346178 342171
      338172 336175 328185 325189 325193 329195 330197 331201
      334207 342209 362226 367231 375237 381241 387247 396252
      401253 413257 422259 427261 432261 439260 447261 456262
      462268 471279 482291 486295 491297 499296 503294 506291
      512281
 0.25 449104 448103 446102 445101 444101 443100 441099 439098
      438100 438103 439105 440105 440106 442106 443106 444106
      446105 447105 449104
 0.25 437021 438012 436004 431993 429988 426980 423966 422960
      419952 416952 415961 416968 417975 420992 421998 422008
      423014 427020 429024 433029 436025 437021
 0.25 406156 408152 406149 403147 400146 394145 390146 389150
      391158 389164 388171 391172 392170 397166 401164 405158
      406156
 0.25 377212 376210 374207 372206 370203 367202 366200 362199
      360200 358201 358203 359206 362208 364209 366209 368210
      371211 375212 377212
 0.25 382922 382914 380906 376893 375884 373876 370866 369858
      369840 371827 372822 370817 365814 360808 357801 351789
      343780 341778 341775 344770 351765 355761 357757 357754
      354746 352741 351736 351732 359720 360716 360712 360707
      357706 359701 361695 363688 362686 360687 350698 343701
      339707 335719 332731 328746 327753 325762 326766 328769
      333773 335778 337785 340795 340803 346815 349821 349829
      348835 346841 343849 344853 346856 352868 357883 361895
      361906 360915 359926 359936 359942 358949 359958 361961
      364953 370949 374943 377936 380931 382922
 0.50 509280 513255 511247 507238 501224 496221 494223 494228
      495237 496242 492241 486238 481236 477233 475231 472234
      473240 479244 481248 482252 483262 486271 489277 494283
      501285 504285 507282 509280
 0.50 443223 443220 440218 436219 430220 424220 417213 405205
      385191 376185 370183 364183 360186 361191 363196 369201
      377208 386217 388222 384223 379225 375225 373227 377231
      383233 388237 392241 398245 402247 408248 414247 424246
      430244 435240 437235 437232 438229 443223
 0.50 441151 441149 440148 439149 439151 440152 441151
 0.50 425997 424994 424996 424998 425997
 0.50 400227 400225 398224 396223 395223 393222 391223 391225
      392226 394227 396228 398227 399227 400227
 0.50 377911 375900 372889 369880 366878 363880 363884 364889
      367900 365912 365925 366930 369934 371934 374929 376918
      377911
 0.50 366829 366824 363822 357826 353831 350838 346844 346849
      349852 354857 356859 359859 362852 364843 365834 366829
 0.50 345202 347198 348194 347191 343190 340188 339188 336189
      335191 334195 334200 335202 337205 341205 343204 345202
 0.50 353813 353812 352811 351811 353813 353813
 0.50 344748 343746 343744 342742 341740 340737 340736 338736
      338738 337740 337742 337743 337745 337747 337749 338750
      339751 340751 342751 343750 344748
 0.50 339731 339729 339731 339732 339731
 1.00 502273 503268 502264 501261 499260 498257 496254 494251
      492250 489249 490254 491257 493259 495262 497265 498267
      499269 502272 502273
 1.00 425239 423236 420235 417233 418225 417220 415217 407215
      403209 394203 380192 374188 368187 366191 369199 378204
      385209 392214 402218 405219 407222 410230 411233 409235
      405236 400236 397237 398241 403242 411241 420242 424241
      425239
 1.00 361841 361840 360839 359837 358837 357836 356837 355837
      354839 352841 352842 350843 350844 350846 350847 352848
      353848 354848 355848 356848 358846 359845 359844 360843
      361841 361841
 1.50 414226 414224 415222 415221 413221 412224 412226 412227
      414227 414226
 1.50 402214 399209 394206 389203 385198 381195 374191 371191
      370194 373198 378202 383205 388209 393212 400215 402214
 1.50 356843 354844 356844 356843
 2.00 379199 379196 377195 375194 374194 373195 373196 375197
      377198 378199 379199

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 484615 497623 501629 504639 509647 511652 512657 511666
      510672 508677 501693 492708 486714 478717 470719 466720
      463723 458724 453727 446730 440728 438723 438719 442710
      447704 450704 454705 456707 457704 458699 458695 457688
      454687 452683 447673 445672 442675 431687 427688 425691
      420692 416691 414689 413682 415674 415669 417666 420658
      430643 436639 441633 451628 456627 460624
 0.01 393645 397649 400653 401656 402664 400670 397682 395689
      392695 391700 388706 384718 380729 377735 375742 374747
      370753 367758 363762 358766 351767 338770 336776 330779
      328784 329788 331790 336791 338793 338796 341804 342812
      342821 344828 344843 343857 343866 343871 342873 341876
      339875 336874 334871 331866 329860 326853 323849 318845
      314844 310840 309832 307826 302822 299821 298818 295814
      287806 279798 276794 272789 272783 274779 277775 277765
      277759 277751 281747 282743 281740 285729 287724 289719
      325690 338680
 0.01 561076 562044 563027 563019 562012 562997 560986 559979
      558974 555964 552955 547947 536933 531928 526924 514916
      508912 501907 495904 489904 485902 467903 459907 456909
      454912 452929 447930 444932 441935 441942 441947 440952
      434958 427960 421957 414954 410953 406952 400951 396949
      393949 391947 389943 386934 382929 377922 373914 367907
      363903 356901 349897 341880 336884 333887 332891 329898
      327910 326920 326935 327939 329943 332953 338969 342977
      347980 351979 357979 367982 374996 386004 397016 402024
      403028 404035 407044 399048 391049 383047 378046 375048
      372048 370052 366062 365068 367074 365079 364082 360089
      359093 355094 348092 344089 343085 340081 337080 333080
      330083 327086 322089 311096 307099 305103 304107 305112
      313124 314134 313139 316143 318144 316146 313146 303146
      297149 295153 295157 294192 303203 317215 320218 321221
      324228 324232 327234 333237 337240 343242 352242 369247
      373248 377247 387249 407251 409254 414255 424258 434262
      438263 441262 448266 453268 456271 459275 462276 468283
      480295 495297 508290 511288 514283 519273 525252 528238
      529234 530227 533220 536218 538208 539200 540191 538186
      535182 517157 504145 498139 492131 491126 491118 492111
      493105 498098 504094 508094 513097 515100 520102 527106
      530109 535112 541114 545114 547111 556101 558096 559088
      560079 561076
 0.01 498993 499983 499972 497965 492960 491958 487957 486955
      484959 484969 482974 477979 475982 477986 482989 487992
      494992 495995 498993
 0.01 488050 488039 486031 481017 477004 474989 473983 469988
      468006 475016 475026 474029 472031 463023 459020 456018
      453018 450020 449026 448034 446040 441043 430049 430055
      432059 435061 445059 449055 451053 454053 456051 460052
      463052 463057 463067 463077 471076 476074 479069 483065
      486056 488050
 0.01 473196 475189 474185 472186 469187 466190 463193 461193
      459191 457194 457199 457204 459208 464209 467207 470204
      472198 473196
 0.01 442171 439159 437146 436133 438129 442125 442121 440118
      436119 429127 427133 425141 423147 423155 421161 420164
      421166 424170 428173 434176 438177 442171
 0.01 433928 433921 431914 424904 420898 417893 413889 411884
      404875 402873 400876 399881 402894 406899 408903 414915
      419926 423933 428933 433928
 0.25 518270 519264 519259 518249 515240 512231 499201 495199
      492201 485204 473209 460214 455216 453216 450220 450222
      454225 463228 466230 463232 457235 454238 451240 448239
      448234 439231 432229 418234 421238 424239 428241 433242
      440241 447239 449242 453243 461243 469245 475250 484261
      493275 499281 505284 509282 513279 518270
 0.25 527199 528194 527192 524187 523181 520176 514168 509165
      505162 501159 495157 485157 475153 468147 463146 457147
      454151 453156 450164 449171 449175 449178 450180 454181
      458179 465172 473168 478168 484170 488174 491178 495188
      499192 504190 507188 511188 520194 523198 527199
 0.25 490654 486640 484634 481629 478624 474623 465629 457635
      453639 450644 451650 453653 457658 460663 463666 467667
      472669 478668 482667 486665 488659 490654
 0.25 489231 488230 488228 487227 485227 484227 482226 481224
      481223 480223 479224 477225 476227 477228 478228 479227
      480227 482228 484228 485228 486231 487231 488232 489231
 0.25 432106 432104 430106 432107 432106
 0.25 416229 417223 417218 413210 399203 390200 383195 374184
      365181 356179 352179 350177 350175 352166 354166 354164
      357160 361155 356154 347156 341159 335162 327161 310156
      306157 305161 304166 306169 306174 309177 312179 317179
      326183 327186 325191 325194 327195 331193 337190 341189
      343192 345195 348198 355202 361206 367203 375207 383211
      390215 397219 402223 406227 410230 416229
 0.25 413153 409124 410118 408114 408110 408104 407100 404099
      398101 395103 393108 385108 373112 365114 358114 351111
      346106 343099 341096 339095 336098 336101 334105 330106
      326107 325112 329116 335120 338123 340126 337135 339143
      346146 353146 360142 365138 372138 377141 378151 378162
      379170 381173 383177 393177 398174 407163 413153
 0.25 400129 401127 400126 399125 398124 397123 395122 393122
      391122 391123 389125 388127 387128 386129 386131 387133
      389133 390133 392133 393133 394132 396132 398131 399131
      400129
 0.25 403074 401070 396071 392073 389075 386078 384083 386088
      391090 395089 398087 400083 402076 403074
 0.25 384664 384661 383658 378658 371664 364671 358676 331702
      325708 317714 315716 312721 310730 309735 310742 309747
      308752 307769 302771 301774 304778 301779 299782 297787
      294790 291793 290798 296804 302807 309803 311804 313802
      314796 314790 313784 312781 314777 318769 326764 335759
      351751 358744 364737 368729 370720 372707 371695 375687
      379679 382671 384664
 0.25 367155 367153 367152 365152 364153 363155 364157 365157
      366157 367155
 0.25 309741 309739 308737 308735 307733 307731 306729 305731
      304733 304734 305736 305738 305740 305742 305744 305746
      306748 307749 307748 307746 308744 308743 309741
 0.50 517267 517260 516253 512242 508232 503222 500217 497213
      492209 488208 483207 479209 472214 470217 472220 476219
      482220 488222 493232 495237 495243 491239 485236 480235
      476235 473236 473241 476245 484250 494272 497276 502280
      507280 510278 515273 517267
 0.50 459168 459165 460163 459160 458160 456162 456164 455164
      455167 455169 456171 458170 458169 459168
 0.50 407215 406212 405212 404211 402209 400208 399208 399209
      397209 396210 396212 398214 399215 399216 401217 403217
      404217 405216 407216 407215
 0.50 404158 406154 405149 402145 398143 395145 394150 392156
      389160 385165 382170 383172 386173 391172 395170 399166
      403160 404158
 0.50 383115 382113 379113 374114 365119 360120 356118 350117
      346118 348124 350128 343133 344139 350140 355138 359136
      366129 373123 381119 383115
 0.50 367685 367682 365682 360683 356685 353687 347693 344700
      335713 332717 329719 325721 323723 322728 323732 326734
      327739 335734 338733 338738 341742 344744 348743 351741
      357735 361729 364720 366712 366706 363702 361699 362695
      366689 367685
 0.50 360192 361190 361188 360186 359185 357185 356185 355185
      353185 351185 350185 349185 348187 349190 351191 352192
      354192 356193 358193 359193 360192
 0.50 349163 350161 347160 344162 336165 327164 316161 313161
      309162 309164 312168 313172 318174 324174 329176 332178
      333184 336185 339183 342179 344175 346167 349163
 0.50 328748 328746 326746 324746 323747 322750 321750 321752
      320753 319754 319757 318759 319759 320761 321761 322758
      324756 325753 327751 328748
 1.00 513255 512252 511250 510249 509248 508248 508251 509253
      509254 510257 511257 513255
 1.00 505271 504268 502265 500263 499261 498258 496255 494252
      492255 493259 494262 495265 497268 499271 501274 502275
      504273 505271
 1.00 500232 501230 501227 500224 499224 498223 496222 494222
      494223 493225 493228 494228 495230 497231 498231 499232
      500233 500232

$$





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