Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 211900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 22/0000 UTC THRU MAY 23/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO CENTRAL PLAINS...

A SERIES OF 700 MB WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE SOUTHWEST
US TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS NM AND TX AND UP INTO CO.  ONE AXIS OF
HIGH QPF IS WHERE ASCENT OCCURS WITHIN THE RETURN MOISTURE PLUME
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE THE CONTINUED AVAILABILITY OF PWATS
OF 1.75-2.00 INCHES...MODEST DEEP-LAYER INSTBY (MUCAPES GENERALLY
1000-2000 J/KG) WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES DROPPED WHERE AN MCV PRODUCED MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING...SO THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

FARTHER NORTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP WITH 700 MB CONVERGENCE
AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS OF NM/CO/TX PANHANDLE. PWATS ARE FCST TO BE CLOSE TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  SE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE...WHERE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SOME ELEVATED INSTBY TO
WORK WITH ALONG WITH THE UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT.  MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE TX PANHANDLE IF/WHEN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE ACTIVITY MOVES DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL KS/OK/RED RIVER VALLEY
OF TX FRI.
WE WILL MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EASTERN NM AND THE
TX PANHANDLE/ADJACENT WESTERN OK.
MANUAL PROGS BLENDED THE GLOBAL AND HIGH RES MODELS.

...CALIFORNIA/OREGON...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

A REGION OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL DRIFT EAST OUT OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN OREGON INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND THE CENTRAL CA SIERRA NEVADA RANGE WITH STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY AGAIN IN THIS ABOVE
AVERAGE PW AXIS WITH 700 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY MAXIMA OVER THE
SIERRA LEADING TO A RAINFALL MAXIMA IN THAT REGION. THIS COINCIDES
WITH A MAX REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE.  ELSEWHERE...MAXIMA IN THE
RANGES OF NORTHEAST OR/SOUTHERN ID/NORTHWEST WY/NORTHERN NV
COINCIDE WHERE ASCENT IS AUGMENTED BY UPSLOPE FLOW AS 700 MB
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD CIRCULATION DRIFTING
EAST OUT OF CA/OR AND ACROSS NV/ID.  LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS MOVE SLOWLY.  MANUAL QPF USED A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND.

...MID ATLANTIC STATES TO LONG ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL SRN NEW
ENGLAND...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WELL DEFINED 700 MB WAVE TO TRACK OFF THE
EAST COAST BY 12Z FRI.
OVERRUNNING RAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PUSHING EASTWARD WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP AMOUNTS IN
VA/NC THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING. WPC UTILIZED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND
WITH THE QPF (ECMWF/GFS/NAM/RGEM)... WEIGHTING MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF.

PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 23/00Z
 0.01 454626 454633 453639 451647 449651 446661 442669 439675
      439681 444674 448672 455665 468647 474641 485637 492633
      497633 500635 506641 510647 515661 519676 521684 520689
      518700 517713 516724 514728 511731 511736 513741 513746
      510750 500747 497745 497740 499737 502731 499728 494728
      492727 489731 484736 480740 479744 472772 469782 467787
      467794 467804 463812 459815 457810 455806 455801 456786
      454771 453764 455758 457748 461741 460729 460725 456725
      451726 449721 447720 444722 441728 437729 431729 427727
      423726 421722 418726 396752 393755 386758 377763 372764
      367763 362763 356764 351771 349775 348778 341795 339797
      336798 332796 327785 326772 325765 326760 332746 331734
      331727 332722 338712 345704 349701 352697 355689 360682
      367677 374673 379671 381670 382667 384661 385655 389646
 0.01 533233 530232 528234 527228 526222 523215 517209 514210
      509208 506204 505199 502192 497185 493183 489183 485187
      482192 477195 472196 469197 464196 468189 470170 480159
      473149 472143 477140 480138 480134 477130 474128 466127
      465122 465119 467117 471111 473104 472101 470096 468088
      469084 472083 475079 479072 477069 473070 469070 467075
      461077 460079 462083 464087 466091 464094 459091 456094
      454086 453083 446062 443053 442047 442041 442031 439019
      439010 439003 436989 433978 431974 427971 398958 389952
      385949 382944 378935 374927 364926 359927 356929 348931
      345933 339933 315930 313926 314920 318912 320905 320900
      318898 313892 310882 303872 301869 298874 294883 294887
      293891 293894 290913 289922 290926 293931 291936 289943
      283951 276956 271963 254967 250975 248982 246985 243985
      239985 231987 229013 234022 241028 247034 251039 260049
      265055 270060 305060 314061 319062 320067 321075 322079
      325083 328086 330090 331097 334099 348093 351093 354090
      357089 362088 369091 373092 374096 370097 366101 365101
      363104 359105 354111 346114 343123 342127 343129 347136
      348139 354140 357143 361140 366140 370138 373136 375139
      373144 373148 371151 366150 361150 357148 353148 347147
      345151 350154 355156 359166 359171 357175 352181 349183
      347184 347180 344175 339169 330168 326168 330171 334175
      338177 342179 344182 344194 349200 352206 358211 362212
      366212 369207 375208 380208 384210 391214 401218 406219
      408220 408222 406224 402224 395225 392227 394230 402236
      406234 409235 416240 421241 425240 436233 439230 443230
      446229 450230 464229 467228 470228 470231 472236 476239
      478242 483242 485243 487246 494261 497266 500269 503270
      504265
 0.01 504265 503261 501258 501254 502250 505252 506255 507258
      509262 510265 512267 513269 516271 518271 519265 520261
      521256 522251 524249 526252
 0.01 437693 437690 436689 435691 435693 436695 437693
 0.01 436698 436695 435693 433696 433697 432699 432700 431701
      432703 434702 435700 436698
 0.01 444877 443868 442863 441846 440830 439822 437818 432819
      429824 426834 425843 425848 427860 431871 437880 441882
      444878 444877
 0.01 417769 417764 415762 413760 408768 404769 402774 399778
      395782 383797 379801 376805 369811 366813 362814 361818
      359823 360830 364832 370831 374828 374824 376821 376816
      378812 382807 385804 395804 396819 399823 405822 411817
      415811 416805 414791 412788 412783 415779 417769
 0.01 389105 388100 385101 379102 375103 374101 372103 372107
      370113 372119 372123 371124 371128 373126 375118 378112
      380107 385109 389105
 0.01 298819 297815 295813 292809 283802 278799 275799 273797
      261797 253799 249802 247808 248812 255820 260824 265825
      268827 271828 278828 283830 289830 294829 296827 297821
      298819
 0.25 510671 506660 504657 500656 496657 491658 487660 482659
      477659 472661 465666 458672 456677 457681 462681 467680
      474675 477673 479677 481683 479688 475709 474715 474722
      475725 479724 488708 494705 499704 504698 509689 510684
      511679 510671
 0.25 479236 479233 478231 476231 476232 475235 476235 477237
      479236 479236
 0.25 464176 458165 458161 459155 453147 446144 442143 441146
      442149 444151 447155 449160 449167 448173 446177 443178
      440179 437177 435176 435172 434167 429163 425162 423162
      424164 428173 433176 428179 425178 425173 422171 421177
      419182 416185 411182 409176 408170 406167 401166 400170
      401176 403180 400183 394183 384184 368181 363182 358187
      360190 364192 370197 378201 390207 397210 406208 409209
      411211 414217 416220 420219 428217 431215 433211 438216
      445211 447202 452193 455184 461180 464176
 0.25 439650 438644 435642 430640 423643 418645 406655 396663
      377681 366691 363695 361702 359710 359718 355728 354732
      355738 358740 362740 367740 369748 372751 375753 383752
      389748 393744 402733 409723 415709 420697 426682 431671
      437660 439650
 0.25 444099 444094 443091 438087 433087 430087 428085 424062
      424048 427039 429034 430026 429019 427013 422001 416992
      412988 408986 403986 399984 391977 386971 377958 370949
      365945 359944 354943 347944 337946 333948 329951 323956
      321958 315958 305959 301959 298958 292960 281965 266975
      261980 255988 249992 240994 236997 234003 237008 241012
      247018 254023 269033 277036 286038 293046 296048 300047
      302042 302031 300026 299021 301018 303012 305013 307016
      309021 312024 319030 323033 328036 336036 342037 351042
      358049 365047 370048 371052 375060 377062 376067 371064
      368059 364054 359053 354058 351063 349071 350074 352075
      356073 357078 359081 366078 373084 378085 382081 382076
      383074 385079 392086 396088 400086 409086 415082 417081
      419086 421092 419095 415098 411097 409098 402108 394112
      392114 395116 398117 401116 417117 425120 429120 432116
      439106 441101 444099
 0.25 421159 421152 419147 416145 411144 407146 401146 401149
      402155 403160 407161 411164 414165 417161 421159
 0.25 396168 395167 395166 394165 392164 390164 388165 387166
      385167 384168 383170 383172 384174 385175 387175 389174
      390174 391173 392172 393171 395170 395169 396168
 0.25 389123 389121 389118 388117 387117 386118 385119 384120
      383122 382124 384126 386126 388125 389123
 0.25 360192 360190 358190 356190 355191 355193 356194 357194
      359192 360192
 0.25 344065 346063 345061 344061 343060 341060 341061 339062
      338063 337065 337066 337067 336069 337070 338069 339069
      340068 342067 344065 344065
 0.25 318986 317984 315981 313981 311983 310986 309990 308992
      307996 309998 311994 313992 315990 316988 318986
 0.25 301912 301910 301907 299905 297908 297910 299912 301912
      301912
 0.25 284819 282813 277811 272808 267805 261803 255806 256810
      258811 262815 266817 272820 277821 281821 284819
 0.50 450183 450182 448182 448183 450184 450183
 0.50 428659 424655 418655 408660 398668 391675 375691 371702
      370708 370712 373712 381709 384709 385713 381723 377729
      376734 374739 373745 375747 378746 383745 389742 392739
      399730 405721 410709 414700 418686 421676 427666 428659
 0.50 429211 430209 430207 430204 429204 428204 427204 426204
      424205 422205 422207 423210 425211 427212 428212 429211
 0.50 429187 430185 430183 429182 428182 427183 426184 425186
      426189 428188 429187
 0.50 432169 431168 429167 429168 429169 430170 432169
 0.50 428091 426089 428091 428091
 0.50 422034 421024 420017 415008 412004 407002 402001 399000
      390992 380988 375986 373983 372977 372974 371967 367962
      364958 360956 351953 345953 340954 335957 331961 328966
      328972 324980 324984 323987 320990 317997 316004 316011
      318015 334025 338028 344028 354029 359028 363025 369021
      368017 366015 365012 366010 376008 380007 384009 392015
      400023 402029 403036 403039 401042 395043 388045 379054
      379058 381063 387065 391067 396068 398067 398071 399075
      402078 405078 413073 417070 418065 417052 419041 422034
 0.50 391199 390195 387192 383190 380191 376188 373186 368184
      365187 367190 372193 376194 380197 384199 387201 391199
      391199
 0.50 372718 371713 369713 368714 366717 364719 363722 361724
      359727 358729 361731 364728 366726 367724 369723 372720
      372718
 0.50 307979 306976 305974 303975 301979 301981 299983 297987
      299990 302991 305990 304987 302985 304984 306981 307979
 0.50 294995 294989 293984 295977 293972 290970 286970 283972
      277977 270978 265980 262982 259988 247998 242000 241004
      245009 249012 252012 258009 263011 263014 263018 264021
      270026 279027 287024 291018 291999 294995
 1.00 405682 404681 402681 401682 400683 399684 399686 398688
      397691 398693 397694 397696 397698 398699 400699 401697
      402697 403694 403692 404690 404689 405687 405684 405682
 1.00 399716 398714 398713 397712 396712 395712 395713 394715
      394717 394720 395722 396722 397719 399716 399716
 1.00 336010 337006 336004 333001 331999 329998 328999 325001
      324005 324010 325012 329012 333012 334012 336010
 1.00 277999 275998 273999 275000 277999 277999

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