Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 240716
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
316 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 24/1200 UTC THRU MAY 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...CENTRAL U.S FROM TEXAS TO WYOMING...

CERTAINLY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A DIFFICULT QPF PATTERN WITH
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND SHEAR OVER A BROAD
AREA...BUT WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BEING GOVERNED MORE BY THE
DIURNAL CYCLE AND MESO OR STORM SCALE PROCESSES RATHER THAN
DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES. AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION DIFFERENT
MODELS MAY OFFER A FEAST OR FAMINE WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION...NOTING PARTICULARLY THAT THE HI-RES MODELS ARE
UNANIMOUSLY BONE DRY OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND PREVIOUS WPC DEPICT A LOCAL MAXIMUM. CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA ARE ALSO PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME...WITH THE EMC
WRF-NMM...NSSL WRF...AND WRF-ARW CARRYING MASSIVE QPF WHILE THE
NAM/NAM CONEST AND OTHER MODELS HAVE VERY LITTLE. A THIRD AREA OF
CONCERN...NOT LIKELY TO BE MODELED VERY WELL...IS THE DEPRESSION
IN THE HEIGHT FIELD LEFT BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION...WHICH WAS
DRIFTING INTO MO/AR THIS MORNING...AND WHICH MAY WELL YIELD
FOCUSED CONVECTION TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND PRODUCES
STRONG UPGLIDE INTO UNCAPPED AREAS FROM FAR EASTERN OK EASTWARD AS
INDICATED BY THE NAM CONEST AND SOME HRRR RUNS.

SO WE HAVE TO SPEAK IN GENERALITIES...NOT PREFERRING ANY
PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION AS BEING IDEAL AT THIS POINT. WE TENDED
TO FAVOR THE WRF-NMM...NAM CONEST...AND CONTINUITY. IN TERMS OF
EVOLUTION...THERE IS GOOD OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE AND MODEL SIGNAL
FOR CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST KANSAS TO EVOLVE EAST AND
SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY TODAY. WE ALSO DID OUR BEST TO DEPICT SOME
FOCUSED QPF IN THE MO/AR UPGLIDE SCENARIO. THE CAP BUILDS THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS THROUGH CENTRAL/WESTERN OK INTO
SOUTHWEST TX...SO WE TRIED TO GIVE THE KANSAS CONVECTION A GOOD
EASTWARD COMPONENT...WITH PREFERRED DEVELOPMENT ON THE LESSER
CAPPED FLANK. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST
IN AN ORGANIZED WAY...AS THE AXIS OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL INFLOW
REMAINS BACK WEST BENEATH THE CAP. FOR THESE REASONS...WE WERE
MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA...BUT
WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE BEFORE THE FINAL 0830Z QPF. THE HI-RES
MODELS FEATURE ALMOST NO QPF OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET NOSING OUT AND MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES BUILDING FURTHER ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE JET AXIS.
ONE AREA WHERE QPF SIGNAL IS RISING...IS EASTERN WYOMING INTO
ADJACENT SD/NE...WITHIN UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF AN EJECTING
SHORTWAVE. AND IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...WE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY
WITH A LOCAL QPF MAXIMUM...DESPITE ABSENCE OF QPF FROM THE HI-RES
MODELS. THIS IS WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD FOCUS
TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG AN ALREADY ESTABLISHED BAROCLINIC
ZONE...THOUGH THE EXTENT OF THE EARLY DAY CONVECTION IN KANSAS
COULD ALTER THE EVENT.


...UPPER MIDWEST / GREAT LAKES...

HERE...AS WITH THE CENTRAL U.S...WPC FAVORED THE NAM CONEST AND
CONTINUITY. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS MODEL SPREAD HERE COMPARED TO
THE PLAINS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO HIGH...GIVEN
RELATIVELY MODEST FORCING AND THE PRESENCE OF AN MCV OVER IOWA
THIS MORNING. THE MODELS DO SEEM TO HAVE SOME SIGNAL OF
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATER TODAY OWING TO THE MCV.
QPF AMOUNTS REMAINED CONSERVATIVE...BUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON.


...WESTERN U.S...

ON THE LARGE SCALE A POSITIVELY TILTED...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST...WITH SMALLER SCALE CONCENTRATIONS
OF VORTICITY ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER WITH CANADA AND ALSO IN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES THROUGHOUT THE WEST WERE NEAR OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY...SO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
NOT BE OVERLY PRODUCTIVE. BOTH GEFS PROBABILITIES AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES INDICATE GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT...0.25 INCH...RAINFALL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS...FROM THE SOUTHERN
SIERRAS IN CALIFORNIA...ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEVADA AND INTO
THE TETONS AND BEARTOOTH AREAS OF WY/MT. MODEL QPFS HAVE BEEN
STABLE RUN TO RUN...AND WPC MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST FOR DAY 1.


...MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

THE EAST COAST TROUGH/LOW WILL RECEIVE A GENTLE KICK FROM AN
UPSTREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING MORE EASTWARD
MOTION TODAY. HEIGHT RISES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO END THE SHOWERY REGIME THERE...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE GROUND AND STRONG HEATING...A STRAY
BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS WILL BE
UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME MID
LEVEL ASCENT AIDING IN DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST. WPC MADE A FEW
TWEAKS BASED ON THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL THE
FORECAST DID NOT CHANGE MUCH.


...FLORIDA...

WITH TYPICALLY RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS...A CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME AT THE TAIL END OF A
FRONTAL ZONE MAY SUPPORT SOME NON-DIURNAL SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING OF THE WESTERN KEYS AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. BETTER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...FOCUSING OVER THE EVERGLADES PER MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...AND MAY
AFFECT SOME OF THE POPULATION CENTERS IN SE FL EARLY IN THE
EVENT...AND IN SW FL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 523195 521190 519183 514175 506168 503163 500160 500156
      502155 506158 513164 516167 520165 520158 518156 504142
      502142 500139 498138 495135 490134 482130 479127 475121
      477115 479112 482109 486113 489116 494118 498121 502124
      505124 509122 517117 523109 527099 527095 528092 529086
      530071 530066 529063 527058 524052 524045 524031 522017
      519009 516006 514006 514009 510032 509036 508034 507026
      506021 504018 503020 500024 499030 499036 501044 486053
      483055 481057 480053 480039 480027 478018 471996 471990
      469984 469979 466973 462964 456957 444940 442926 442921
      445917 450911 453911 455915 462935 467945 469950 470957
      472960 476963 482963 487963 492967 497970 501970 507966
      511975 517984 520987 525986 529983 532978 534971 533963
      530952 527941 523931 519923 514916 509911 502906 499905
      496907 495909 495914 494918 492916 488916 483914 476909
      473906 470900 470896 472893 476890 483884 490877 497869
      501861 503849 503834 502826 504821 509802 510789 508778
      505774 501772 497771 494771 494768 506753 510748 513744
      519735 522731 521726 516715 511707 509703 506706 494719
      481733 468746 456758 443769 436776 429784 422792 415800
      405811 397818 392826 384842 381850 378853 374855 371857
      366858 363861 361865 359876 357882 353886 347894 344898
      342903 341909 341917 341924 339928 331933 322936 305932
      299939 299945 296949 296954 299954 301956 304955 314956
      322955 326955 331955 339959 343961 347962 348964 348968
      344971 339982 335991 335004 336008 339011 349011 357009
      363008 367007 378007 383007 386010 386016 387022 393025
      396028 396033 396038 397044 398050 397055 397057 399058
      403061 399069
 0.01 399069 395076 397078 399078 406075 412075 417073 421072
      422076 423081 421086 419089 417090 410091 404096 399100
      397108 396111 393114 394118 399122 403128 393138 382138
      378144 377152 381156 378157 379160 377170 373170 371172
      365175 362177 360179 361188 364195 368199 372203 379207
      387210 393214 396216 396219 386224 383227 383229 387234
      394238 403241 410242 417242 421238 426232 430228 431219
      432213 431209 432203 430200 425189 423163 426155 426145
      426140 428137 432138 435141 438148 441154 447165 449169
      448175 449180 451183 457185 462183 465174 470169 473171
      475174 477179 479188 483195 490197 496194 501192 509194
      519202 520204 521200 523195
 0.01 508246 509238 507231 502220 499214 496210 492211 487211
      482209 478209 470203 473209 470213 467212 462207 460202
      459206 461213 462216 459217 454217 448216 444217 441222
      443227 447229 452228 457225 462225 471221 476220 481220
      486222 491225 494231 496237 498242 501247 503250 506250
      508246
 0.01 497660 496652 494648 488642 480644 475649 472653 467656
      464659 462659 461656 457652 451653 448657 444666 436665
      427668 422670 420673 412689 407696 405700 405705 405709
      403710 398712 399715 401718 406724 406727 403729 400731
      395733 391735 384740 382743 384747 385750 388753 391755
      397755 406753 411754 415753 424752 430750 433748 441743
      447737 451731 458713 468700 491675 497660
 0.01 495771 493769 491770 490772 491774 493773 495771
 0.01 479241 479239 480236 480234 480231 480230 478229 477228
      477227 476230 475232 475235 476236 476237 477240 478242
      479241
 0.01 491774 490773 488773 487775 488777 490776 491774
 0.01 486780 484779 482782 479785 471793 457806 442820 434827
      426834 424834 423838 423844 422853 421858 421862 420865
      420873 422875 423874 425869 427862 429857 434848 447833
      459816 472801 480792 485783 486780
 0.01 423706 423703 422702 420703 418703 416703 415704 414706
      413707 412708 412709 411711 412712 414712 414713 416713
      418713 420713 421711 422708 423706
 0.01 386154 385152 383152 381154 382155 384155 386154
 0.01 343173 343169 341167 338166 334167 330165 327165 325165
      324169 325172 327174 329176 330178 332180 335181 338181
      340179 341175 343173
 0.01 294019 294018 293016 292016 291016 289014 287014 285014
      283014 283016 285018 287018 289019 290020 290021 292021
      294019 294019
 0.01 285819 285815 283813 281808 274802 266796 263787 268779
      270774 269767 267761 262759 257760 251761 244767 238775
      232782 230786 229792 228798 228803 231814 233820 234826
      236830 240833 242839 245839 251830 256823 257820 260821
      264823 270823 276823 282822 285819
 0.01 267017 264015 263011 264006 264003 262998 258995 255992
      253992 251994 249994 246993 237990 233993 232997 235005
      238009 241012 249015 258018 267017
 0.25 495809 495804 493802 489800 486802 482806 478812 473822
      468833 463846 461851 457855 453854 449855 440862 436866
      432871 427884 424891 421896 415896 411896 405896 401897
      396901 394905 392910 391916 391924 395929 396936 394941
      386940 382938 372916 373913 376911 378907 374896 374891
      372886 368882 365883 363885 358890 356897 355899 351900
      347904 345910 345918 347924 351927 355931 358934 359939
      358945 359950 360953 362960 366970 359979 356984 353991
      351996 350000 353002 358000 362998 371999 378001 383998
      385994 389992 394995 397999 403002 404011 401028 400038
      401045 403051 407051 426051 436045 446041 450038 453031
      453019 455012 460001 459996 455991 451990 446992 438997
      433000 430999 429998 430983 429980 426979 423980 421979
      421974 422970 424962 426956 428948 429942 431938 432930
      433923 434915 432910 431901 432897 435895 439892 444887
      448882 449881 450885 453894 457898 460893 463887 465881
      466879 468880 471882 474881 479877 483874 486869 491859
      492852 490846 487841 482842 478848 475855 474858 469857
      464860 461859 462856 469848 473844 476842 480842 484836
      487831 490825 493817 495809
 0.25 482153 482150 481148 480146 478145 476145 475145 473145
      471145 470148 469150 470153 470154 472154 474154 475154
      477154 478154 479155 480155 482153
 0.25 491949 491944 490942 488939 486938 482937 481937 479937
      478942 479944 481949 482951 484952 487954 490952 491949
 0.25 470105 468103 468102 468104 469105 470106 470105
 0.25 467068 469058 470048 469038 467036 465038 465047 464053
      462060 460067 457074 457079 460081 463080 465077 467070
      467068
 0.25 462104 462099 458098 452094 448094 445096 442097 440100
      436101 432100 428101 426103 424106 426109 433112 437113
      440113 443110 445111 448114 451114 455113 456110 461105
      462104
 0.25 442718 441714 437715 433719 428723 423727 420730 415735
      414739 418740 421738 426735 431732 435728 440724 442718
 0.25 439692 439690 437688 435687 434686 433686 432685 431684
      430683 428683 426684 425686 427688 429690 431691 431692
      433693 433694 435695 436695 437696 438695 439692
 0.25 448073 447070 446070 445068 443068 441068 441069 441072
      443073 445073 446074 448073
 0.25 414231 414229 414227 414226 413224 413223 412223 411224
      409225 408225 407226 405226 405227 404228 404231 406232
      408233 409233 411233 413232 414231
 0.25 415212 415210 416208 416206 415205 415203 414201 412200
      411199 410199 409200 408201 407203 407206 408207 408208
      409210 410211 411212 412214 413214 414214 415212
 0.25 417154 417151 416153 417154 417154
 0.25 402169 404166 403163 398163 390167 384171 380173 378178
      375182 372183 370185 370190 375196 384201 388201 392200
      395198 394193 396186 398182 401172 402169
 0.25 352949 351947 348945 347945 346945 345943 343941 339939
      337941 336945 337947 339947 343947 345947 347949 350951
      352949
 0.25 269812 266806 261803 255802 250800 256789 261780 264775
      264771 263769 259768 255769 251773 242781 239785 238791
      239800 241806 251812 257813 260815 264816 267815 269812
 0.25 255008 255004 254002 251000 249000 246998 244997 240996
      238997 238001 239003 242005 243007 245008 249009 252010
      253010 255008
 0.50 488859 487854 484856 482859 480861 479863 478867 477870
      478873 480872 482869 484867 485864 487861 488859
 0.50 457001 454999 451999 446001 436005 430008 428013 426020
      423026 417037 416041 417044 424046 427046 432042 436039
      441038 447035 449029 449021 450015 456003 457001
 0.50 424999 425992 420991 414996 409003 406008 406012 405026
      402037 403040 405041 407040 408038 413031 418023 422014
      423001 424999
 0.50 423928 413912 410908 407906 399907 396911 395917 396923
      398927 399933 399941 397945 395949 390950 387954 386957
      384956 381954 379951 378946 376934 373929 370925 368916
      368910 371908 372903 370898 352903 349907 348914 350919
      353922 365934 374974 373980 373985 375991 377994 380994
      382990 386981 387978 389979 393982 398990 407993 410991
      411984 412977 414978 415971 416966 418945 419933 423928
 0.50 383195 381193 381192 380190 378190 377191 378193 378194
      379195 381195 383195 383195
 0.50 265813 265810 264809 263808 262807 261806 260805 259805
      258804 256805 254805 253806 253808 253810 254810 256811
      257811 258813 259813 260814 262814 264813 265813
 0.50 257777 256776 255777 254777 255778 257777 257777
 0.50 255783 255781 253779 251780 248782 246783 245785 243787
      242791 244795 246795 249795 251793 252790 253787 254785
      255783
 0.50 249004 249003 248002 247002 245001 244000 242000 240002
      242003 242004 244005 245005 247004 249004 249004
 1.00 448010 448009 446008 444007 443009 443012 444013 446013
      447012 448010 448010
 1.00 411017 412015 411013 411015 409016 409017 411017 411017
 1.00 411954 410945 409935 407924 406920 403919 401921 401926
      403936 401945 400954 398960 399966 402973 407975 410966
      410956 411954
 1.00 359918 359917 358916 357914 355913 354912 353911 352912
      352914 353915 355915 356916 357917 359918 359919 359918

$$





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