Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 260650
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 26/1200 UTC THRU JUL 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

FLORIDA

THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
ELONGATED UPPER LOW STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA DAY 1.   ANOTHER DAY OF WET WEATHER---WITH
HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE
2.25"+ PW AXIS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS FL IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS UPPER TROF AXIS.  HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED AGAIN
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE MOIST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OFF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  MODELS ARE AGAIN SHOWING
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A PRECIP MAX OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE AXIS
OF MOST ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE GULF---WITH MORE SPREAD IN
QPF SOLUTIONS AWAY FROM SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

MID MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY

LOW CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIE IN A GENERAL WEST
TO EAST DIRECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES FROM
THE MID MO VALLEY/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST.  ONGOING
EARLY MORNING ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  UNCERTAINTIES ARE
WITH WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL FORM---WITH A LARGE SPREAD
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE.  PW VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY---SUPPORTING
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WHERE CONVECTION DOES ORGANIZE.
THE DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM CONTINUITY/HI RES ENSEMBLE
MEAN---DEPICTING MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.

NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND

THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID MO/MID MS
VALLEY WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND DAY 1.  WHILE THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN---THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCENTRATED
REGION OF LARGE SCALE UVVS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THESE AREAS.  MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS---WITH
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS

ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES FROM THE LEE OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/ENHANCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THESE
HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM
EASTERN CO AROUND 0000 UTC MON---PUSHING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  WITH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION OF
CONVECTION---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM EAST CENTRAL CO
INTO NW KS WHERE FFG VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW.

SW TX INTO NM

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING WESTWARD
ACROSS NW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE U.S. BORDER AS IT CONTINUES TO PRESS WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  ANY ORGANIZED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
CIRCULATION WILL SUBSEQUENTLY ALSO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE U.S.
BORDER---WITH ONLY SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON ITS
NORTH AND NORTHEAST PERIPHERIES AFFECTING SW TX INTO NM.

NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

THE UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL BE AMPLIFYING THIS PERIOD
AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ROTATE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.  STRENGTHENING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS AMPLIFYING TROF AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY
HOURS OF MONDAY.  MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL MT.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 540200 542184 541178 539172 536160 535144 534137 533132
      529129 524128 519127 513124 509122 506125 504131 503138
      500143 496146 496152 493159 487169 485173 486178 487185
      485189 485195 484198 482200 473202 441219 439222 442225
      448226 451226 455229 456232 455234 444233 436236 435240
      438244 443246 449247 455248 457247 460248 469249 480253
      487260 494269 499277 503281 508283 513277 520266 523255
      527241 536215 538206 540200
 0.01 515706 514698 512692 506688 500684 498681 498676 497672
      494669 488664 484655 482649 480644 474633 470630 466628
      457632 451639 444644 438651 427664 416679 409693 402712
      395727 391735 388743 379764 375772 374782 374786 375793
      374799 370802 358816 347827 343833 339836 336840 330846
      331850 332852 340856 348850 357836 367822 372815 375810
      380809 384807 387806 389810 389816 387821 385830 382838
      374855 365868 359874 354879 350889 352893 354897 356901
      357906 358913 360919 365927 370928 374927 381922 385930
      383939 380947 373963 369972 366982 362993 363997 365003
      367002 369005 369016 366027 363038 359046 352053 333051
      328051 326052 325056 327057 330060 333062 333065 328071
      327074 329079 332088 336092 340093 343091 345085 350079
      357071 365068 368071 370075 375091 378092 380094 383092
      386084 387079 389075 393068 397065 402065 405061 406056
      407043 411037 414033 415025 415021 418020 422018 426016
      430016 434008 434002 433997 430992 427989 422989 420991
      416992 412991 407984 403975 401973 400967 402956 402949
      400945 397943 399939 402931 408923 421935 426942 431946
      436952 445957 450957 455954 455949 456942 455936 453931
      449921 445913 441908 420881 414872 410861 404854 405842
      407832 410824 414805 417793 421785 428772 432763 437756
      447741 514723 515706
 0.01 509086 510073 509063 507052 504042 498024 496021 491019
      484020 481024 480028 480041 480047 478052 473053 471056
      467079 458074 455074 452076 447082 443088 443096 444099
      449100 452103 456105 456109 451115 446123 443131 442142
      443162 447168 453174 457169 461161 481135 486129 491122
      496115 500108 503104 506097 509086
 0.01 325803 325797 321794 311792 301791 293792 289789 280785
      270783 257785 252786 246788 243793 241797 240803 241809
      239821 235832 234838 234844 238854 246877 248881 252885
      254890 256895 270909 277916 284923 292929 295933 295937
      294939 296943 299945 310948 314947 316945 316941 313928
      311916 312910 312903 310898 306895 296890 293885 292881
      288875 287870 287863 289856 291851 294847 301840 305831
      307819 307816 310814 317813 323808 325803
 0.01 313094 314086 312081 307070 299063 287058 276054 265049
      255044 244039 239037 235037 233039 228049 230053 233057
      241066 247075 250080 250087 252092 257094 263097 267101
      271105 275108 289112 296120 302120 304114 306107 308103
      313094
 0.25 524163 523160 522157 522156 521154 520153 519151 518151
      517151 516152 515153 515155 515158 515159 516160 517161
      518163 519164 520165 521165 522165 523165 524163
 0.25 503238 503236 503235 502233 502231 501230 500228 500227
      499226 498224 498223 496221 495223 495225 495228 495230
      495231 496233 497234 498236 498237 499238 501239 502240
      503238
 0.25 506174 506172 506171 505171 505174 506174
 0.25 498092 498074 497067 494060 491059 488060 484064 477073
      473086 466097 464104 466111 470125 473126 478123 482119
      485113 492103 495097 498092
 0.25 477684 475682 473682 471681 470681 469681 468681 466682
      465682 465685 467687 468687 470687 472687 473686 475685
      477684 477684
 0.25 465221 464219 462219 461219 459220 457221 456221 457222
      458223 460225 462224 463223 464223 465221
 0.25 465700 463699 462700 461701 462702 464702 465701 465700
 0.25 410765 411761 409756 407756 405758 404755 402755 400758
      404759 404760 401762 399765 399767 400770 403771 407770
      409768 410765
 0.25 410905 411900 411895 409884 408877 405869 402863 398859
      391857 387858 385859 379873 376878 371882 368888 366896
      367906 371911 379911 384915 388918 392919 396917 404908
      410905
 0.25 406007 405002 403998 394992 388992 384995 381998 379004
      375015 374022 376028 377034 380039 384042 390043 393043
      398041 401036 403031 403019 406007
 0.25 302091 303084 299079 296075 291072 278068 268063 263061
      259062 258063 258069 259076 261082 264087 267092 271095
      275099 282101 293104 297102 300097 302091
 0.25 295822 295816 293813 286809 282808 280811 276812 275811
      275807 275802 272799 265796 256797 253799 252802 248809
      246817 243825 242833 241839 243842 250846 255852 259852
      262852 274842 278836 281832 280827 278823 287824 292824
      295822
 0.50 490086 490080 490076 487075 484078 481085 477092 472097
      471102 472106 473110 476112 479111 481108 484099 484093
      488091 490086
 0.50 401012 399005 396002 390998 386002 383006 381013 380022
      384026 387030 393034 396034 398031 399028 398024 399018
      401012
 0.50 399883 398877 395876 393876 391870 388870 384872 382876
      381882 379886 376889 373891 371896 373902 374905 378907
      383908 389911 392906 392903 392899 393892 398885 399883
 0.50 298088 297084 294081 289078 281075 274072 270071 266072
      266077 267081 270087 276090 283094 291096 295091 298088
 0.50 291818 290817 290816 288814 286812 284811 282811 281813
      281815 283817 285819 287820 288820 288821 290820 291818
 0.50 275828 274823 272818 270814 270808 271804 267804 258806
      254808 251812 247819 245829 245833 246837 251837 254840
      257843 261844 268841 273833 275828
 1.00 271828 270822 267816 264811 260809 255812 251816 249820
      248827 248830 251832 256832 260836 264837 266835 270831
      271828
 1.50 268829 268823 266819 263815 260811 258811 255814 252818
      251822 252828 256829 260831 264833 267830 268829
 2.00 266827 266823 265820 262817 261815 260813 257813 255815
      254818 254822 256826 258827 260828 262830 263829 266827

$$





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