Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 031853
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 04/0000 UTC THRU AUG 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

COASTAL SC--LOWER COASTAL NC

THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROF THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN---BEING SHEARED WITH PART OF THE
CIRCULATION SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF---WHILE A
SEPARATE PORTION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL FOCUS ONSHORE FLOW INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SC AND LOWER NC.  WHILE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP TOTALS MAY
REMAIN OFFSHORE---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO LOWER NC--WHERE AREAL AVERAGE
1"+ AMOUNTS ARE DEPICTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVIER
TOTALS.

ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA---WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL
WEAKENING THIS PERIOD TO THE MID AND LOW LEVEL CENTERS--MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OFF THE NORTHEAST
GULF.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITION PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL---WITH
AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS.

NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST DAY 1.  CONVECTION MAY ENHANCE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT IN A GENERAL FAVORABLE REGION OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS.  THERE IS THE USUAL AMOUNT OF MODEL
SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO QPF DETAILS---LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THESE DETAILS.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS WHERE CONVECTION DOES ENHANCE.

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN--NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

THE WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF.  HOWEVER---WITH
PW VALUES CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS--MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

A SEPARATE STREAM OF HEIGHT FALLS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE
LATITUDE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP AND HOW QUICKLY IT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.
 WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS---WPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES RUNS AND THE HI RES
MEANS.  LESS CONFIDENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT DETAILS.  DAY 1
QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR MOST DETAILS DAY
1.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 536147 537140 537136 535133 534128 530126 524125 521123
      516121 513118 509115 504113 496107 493105 495102 498096
      500091 501085 502078 502070 499067 487057 475046 468040
      460032 448018 443012 439008 437003 434992 430982 422962
      407929 400921 396909 396902 395897 395885 395879 397873
      396859 396851 397845 401836 409815 414807 414805 416802
      419808 424829 426832 430834 436833 438830 441820 440813
      442808 441800 442791 444781 451761 454752 457741 459735
      462731 467722 477705 482698 485691 488682 491672 493660
      494654 494650 488652 485653 483651 483645 482638 480634
      476631 472630 468630 464629 459631 454640 439680 435689
      433695 428697 424691 417685 413684 410686 406693 402701
      399709 396719 393729 389737 384745 380755 375763 367783
      363799 360810 361821 361848 363853 363860 362874 361879
      361885 361889 360892 358895 350913 341936 339944 339958
      338998 325012 319018 315030 315034 311039 306046 302048
      296048 288051 280055 277056 274056 267055 261055 257052
      252046 245041 237037 233037 230039 229045 228050 230060
      236066 247076 260089 265095 271102 284115 286118 292120
      299120 303117 304113 306110 307105 308093 308087 310083
      311076 315071 319063 323053 325047 328044 330040 332039
      335039 347040 358042 367045 370049 368054 364058 367063
      369066 371069 371073 370079 371083 373091 374096 378096
      381095 384095 387093 392086 398082 402084 405087 409098
      411103 407109 396108 390112
 0.01 390112 392114 398115 402116 408119 413125 415130 417135
      424135 432140 439156 442160 447162 451161 455159 465159
      475162 477167 480170 486177 490179 495180 498179 501175
      514166 517164 521163 528159 533153 536147
 0.01 456852 456842 454837 450833 445831 443832 442836 440842
      441851 439856 441861 442863 445863 448863 450860 453857
      456852
 0.01 437216 438211 438208 438204 437201 435198 432196 430197
      428199 426203 425205 423210 423212 424215 426217 429217
      431216 435217 437216
 0.01 367750 366740 365730 358730 350731 346732 345734 341741
      339746 334751 318772 307779 298788 248798 247802 252806
      255811 260816 265820 271822 275824 273825 269829 271835
      273838 272841 269857 267860 267865 270873 271878 272886
      277902 278910 279913 278916 275932 275940 276947 277956
      281962 288962 291961 294958 299947 301940 302931 304895
      307880 310863 314830 315823 319817 323813 328809 338800
      350791 358783 361778 364771 366760 366753 367750
 0.25 514153 514152 513150 511149 509150 508151 507151 506153
      505153 504155 504158 505158 507158 509157 510157 512156
      513155 514153 514153
 0.25 479678 479675 477673 472672 464666 459669 455675 451685
      448691 447698 446702 443708 439713 437718 434722 428726
      425729 421734 417737 415743 410753 410756 413757 417754
      423751 427748 432746 438747 439741 439732 447725 452722
      456718 463709 475690 478683 479678
 0.25 474096 474091 473089 471086 469085 466083 463084 461086
      460089 461092 462094 465097 467097 470098 472098 474096
 0.25 454113 455104 453099 449096 443095 437095 433092 429087
      425084 423086 424088 426091 428098 425102 421105 421110
      423116 427118 431116 436116 441118 445117 450117 454114
      454113
 0.25 456059 454053 451046 445037 437029 433025 432023 430024
      429033 429042 430049 430054 431056 438066 441071 446075
      449078 448075 445072 445067 447060 456059
 0.25 431009 430000 428992 423978 419963 413949 407936 402931
      400935 402938 407954 410970 414985 416993 419999 423005
      427010 431009
 0.25 410021 411017 409013 408007 404002 399999 392998 387002
      387006 390013 395016 399019 404023 408024 410021
 0.25 396800 394796 391796 388799 385804 384809 382813 381818
      383824 386822 388817 391812 392809 394805 396800
 0.25 370985 370980 369977 370970 370961 367954 364952 361954
      356958 353964 351971 352979 350985 348004 349012 350022
      351030 353033 357033 363030 366023 366013 364005 366996
      368990 370985
 0.25 355757 354749 351747 348747 344750 339755 331765 322774
      314784 311790 310794 311799 317802 323803 326804 328802
      334798 342790 347784 349778 354764 355757
 0.25 305821 305810 304805 301803 294805 289810 286817 285822
      286827 287833 288838 290840 294839 296836 300830 304825
      305821
 0.25 293906 293901 293898 292895 291893 288893 287895 286900
      286904 287908 287912 287916 288918 290921 291918 293916
      293912 293908 293906
 0.25 284087 284082 281080 272077 264072 258067 251061 248060
      244062 246066 249070 254076 261082 268086 277089 280091
      283089 284087
 0.50 407021 408015 406010 404007 401003 397001 392002 390004
      390009 393012 397015 400017 404021 407021 407021
 0.50 362025 362016 361009 358005 360998 360994 357992 355994
      355000 354007 352015 352020 354024 355026 359027 362025
 0.50 351755 348753 344756 338763 331770 324777 319787 319791
      321795 322799 324800 329798 337791 343783 347774 350764
      351755
 0.50 299819 300817 299815 299814 297813 295813 294813 293814
      292816 291818 290819 290820 290822 290824 291825 292826
      293828 294827 296826 296825 298823 299821 299819 299819
 1.00 345765 343764 341766 337771 333774 329779 326784 324786
      326789 327792 330792 335789 338785 341780 343774 345768
      345765
 1.50 336782 334781 332782 331783 331785 333787 334785 335784
      336782 336782

$$




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