Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 280727
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
326 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 28/1200 UTC THRU JUN 29/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

A LOW TO MEDIUM AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR CONVECTION
TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL MN TODAY...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN WI WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING UNDERNEATH THE
ALBERTA-SASKATCHEWAN UPPER SYSTEM WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WED NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A MORE DIFLUENT
PATTERN AND BROADENING UPPER DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE PLAINS
AND MO VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL MCS ACTIVITY
(RESULTANT MCV) THAT THE GLOBALS SHOW EMERGING INTO THIS REGION
OVERNIGHT WED AS THE DEEP-LAYER FORCING BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE...
WITH THE VORT LOBE ALIGNED MORE-OR-LESS PARALLEL TO THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONTAL ARC AS IT LIFTS INTO EASTERN SD-NE BY 1200 UTC THU.

IN TERMS OF LOCATION/AREAL EXPANSE OF THE MORE APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL TOTALS...THE GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE
TO CLUSTER REASONABLY WELL. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE...WARM SEASON
MODE OF THE EVENT AND ATTENDANT MESOSCALE FEATURES
(MCV/S...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES) WILL MAINTAIN UNCERTAINTY AT SMALLER
SCALES...PARTICULARLY WITH THE MAXIMA. MOREOVER...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER (ALBEIT IMPROVING) IN TERMS OF HOW FAR
SOUTH THE WED NIGHT-EARLY THU MCS ACTIVITY WILL DROP. ONE OF THE
TRENDS NOTED WITH SOME OF THE 00Z CAM OUTPUT (PARTICULARLY THE
WRF-ARW AND NAM CONUS NEST) WAS A SIGNAL FOR HIGHER TOTALS FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY (INTO NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHERN
MO) DURING THE 00-12Z THU TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
CONVECTIVELY-AIDED VORT LOBE...AGREE WITH THE SOUTHWARD TREND...AS
EXPECT THE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT TO ERODE THE INITIALLY-CAPPED MID
LAYER CENTERED AROUND 750-700 MB. LARGELY DUE TO THE CONTINUED
MODEL SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF MAX TOTALS...WPC
INCORPORATED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND IN COMPOSING THE QPF...WITH
CONSIDERABLE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE HREF MEAN AND WRF-ARW. WHILE
AREAL-AVERAGE TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 2 INCHES...PER A
BEVY OF HIGH-RES CAM GUIDANCE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3-6+ INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...GULF COAST...

A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD EXISTS ALONG THE GULF
COAST...SITTING ATOP A STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO COASTAL TEXAS. THE SITUATION IS FAVORABLE FOR
DIURNALLY ENHANCED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST AND BROADER
AREAS OF RAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND AHEAD OF THE WEAKLY DEFINED TROUGH
AXIS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE WESTERN GULF /
TEXAS...WHERE THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE SOME INDICATION OF CONVECTION
AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE BEING SUFFICIENT TO FEEDBACK ONTO THE MID
LEVEL FLOW...DEVELOPING A BROAD CIRCULATION. ANY SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT THE BULK OF THE MORE
ORGANIZED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY SHOULD OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEA
BREEZES OVER MUCH OF FLORIDA...AND OFFSHORE OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
NEAR THE DEVELOPING LOW CENTER.

WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...THE MODELS DEPICT A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
SHIFT WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/VORT LOBE...BECOMING DRAPED
ALONG THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GULF COAST AS THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
AMPLIFIES AND THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE SLIDES A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT MORE OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF TO COME
ASHORE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST. HIGHEST AREAL-AVERAGE TOTALS (2-2.5") WERE NOTED IN A
RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR CLIPPING SOUTHERN LA...THOUGH SOME OF
THE HIGH-RES CAMS CONTINUED TO DEPICT SOME RATHER PRODIGIOUS
TOTALS (4-8+ INCHES) JUST OFFSHORE.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 566044 565044 564050 563061 563067 562070 558073 553078
      550080 548084 544103 540114 540120 540129 541139 543149
      544154 543161 543168 541172 539177 537180 529182 523183
      517181 507174 501170 495165 489162 483163 478160 472155
      467153 465150 466144 467140 469136 470129 470123 467120
      463122 462127 461133 459138 456146 456151 455156 453157
      449158 445152 442151 441155 438156 436154 434151 433145
      432138 433129 433126 432124 429124 425132 422160 419162
      416160 415154 415148 416138 418131 419117 421106 423097
      424086 426082 427077 427066 426061 425058 420051 418048
      414047 400053 394048 392045 390041 391032 393028 390025
      388020 387012 388994 388983 386974 382959 381953 383949
      384946 385939 387928 388924 391920 396915 399903 402889
      407877 412872 415865 418858 422852 428845 433837 432825
      433820 433813 434792 435783 436778 438774 446765 452764
      456763 457760 452760 449758 447752 442745 438740 435737
      433733 430732 429729 432726 433722 437714 441713 441706
      440695 440685 442674 445668 448663 452659 458656 463655
      466656 472657 477660 481665 487673 490682 493703 493707
      492711 488719 489728 493740 498756 500763 500769 498777
      496781 497787 498791 499797 499809 500816 499822 494828
      493830 493833 495837 499846 507861 516874 523885 531894
      540906 545923 548933 552941 556949 559956 563963 564965
      565962 564957 566960 566977 567988 567993 568999
 0.01 539008 530991 527986 525984 522984 516983 512982 493978
      487979 482980 476980 472978 464975 460972 458968 455954
      451950 447948 444952 441952 437950 435945 433944 431946
      428950 425954 423955 421953 418952 416954 414957 412961
      410966 408973 407978 407982 410986 415989 419991 422989
      427987 430984 431982 435983 438985 443997 451015 455027
      453037 459042 457047 460050 470052 478059 481061 485062
      491063 495061 499057 499048 500044 502042 505037 507034
      509028 509011 518004 522004 526007 530007 533010 537011
      539008
 0.01 492201 491200 489198 487199 487200 487201 489202 490202
      492201 492201
 0.01 484219 484217 483216 482215 481213 480213 479213 477213
      475213 475214 474216 475218 476219 478219 480220 481220
      483220 484219
 0.01 491094 492087 491084 488084 484083 481083 478084 475084
      471086 465092 463103 470105 472107 475111 475118 475122
      477124 479126 484126 487123 489116 488112 490106 491094
 0.01 427030 428027 426025 425026 424027 423029 423032 423034
      423036 424038 425037 425034 426032 427030
 0.01 414064 412063 412064 412066 414064 414064
 0.01 366030 366027 366025 367023 366023 365021 363020 361020
      359020 359023 359025 359027 361029 362030 364030 366030
      366030
 0.01 361818 359816 356819 354822 351826 349829 347833 346838
      348840 350837 353833 355830 357826 359821 361818
 0.01 230001 239009 244013 251015 257015 260013 262009 262004
      260997 256990 257986 259984 264981 276976 285978 291973
      301960 310953 311950 311944 311933 312928 314924 318918
      321910 323900 323891 324884 325880 324877 322869 324864
      326861 328859 328854 327848 325846 321844 318845 314845
      311842 312836 315828 317820 320817 319812 316809 314806
      311797 309788 304784 301784 299782 295776 292774 288773
      283774 279776 271780 266786 263792 260798 255801 252804
      251808 255813 261819 268823 274827 276829 276832 273836
      275838 278839 284843 285848 283852 273865 272869 272873
      275879 275884 273891 271894 269896 263900 260908 256916
      256921 254924 250929 240956 237959 237964 239967 242970
      247976 248979 246982 231988
 0.01 317039 317033 314032 308032 305030 299029 297031 295035
      295042 296044 302044 306043 309041 315041 317039
 0.01 225054 229060 236065 246076 251081 258086 264089 267091
      273092 287092 291086 297084 294078 291075 287072 271068
      266063 259058 254054 247050 241046 236044 233042 227041
 0.01 244829 244825 243821 242819 241815 240812 238811 236812
      234814 234818 234822 236824 238827 239829 242830 244829
 0.25 565010 563000 561989 558977 555968 550957 545947 542932
      538920 534912 530906 524898 518892 511886 502883 497883
      492886 489887 483887 480882 481872 484860 485854 485846
      484833 484828 482819 481808 483794 485785 485775 483768
      482763 478760 475763 468788 465789 461787 452785 447786
      443788 441791 440795 439808 439820 440827 440834 439841
      436847 424862 421869 418878 412898 408910 405915 402918
      393924 389934 387942 386953 387961 389965 393972 392987
      394992 396994 399993 402968 407961 410953 414944 421939
      426937 430934 434932 440932 443933 449933 460932 463934
      465938 467946 471957 472963 475967 480968 486967 495964
      505962 510962 514964 519968 526972 531972 535973 538977
      540982 549006 552018 557027 560026 563022 565010
 0.25 538167 531139 527129 526120 525113 525105 528098 531093
      533085 538075 540067 540062 540058 538053 534049 531048
      528049 524055 519063 516069 515074 516080 517114 517119
      521125 523130 520138 518142 513144 509146 509151 511154
      516163 519168 523173 527175 531175 535171 538167
 0.25 456113 457105 456098 454093 454086 454078 454068 452063
      449061 445061 442065 439069 441076 444079 447085 445089
      440093 437103 438109 442113 445117 450120 453118 456113
 0.25 448053 448048 448044 447041 446039 445035 443033 440032
      438033 436037 436038 437043 439045 440048 441050 442054
      444055 446055 448053
 0.25 317888 317881 316877 312864 310853 305842 304831 295826
      275816 268814 263804 257803 255807 258812 262816 269820
      278825 283827 285832 292841 295845 298847 300854 301859
      303865 299868 292877 285882 279890 274900 266908 264911
      263917 263925 261929 254937 252943 251950 250960 250966
      253970 259970 265969 279970 283971 286968 291960 296957
      301954 304949 305941 305929 308920 308913 308908 308899
      307897 309895 315893 317888
 0.25 310828 311826 310824 309824 307823 305823 303824 303825
      302827 302829 304831 306831 308831 309830 310828
 0.25 295794 294792 293791 291791 290793 290794 289795 290796
      292797 294796 295794
 0.25 289785 290782 289780 288780 286779 284780 283781 283782
      282783 282786 283787 284787 285788 287787 289786 289785
 0.25 279084 277079 272075 262068 251060 241052 230045 227046
      226049 230054 238062 249070 257078 263082 270084 275086
      279084
 0.25 252004 251000 249998 247998 244996 242995 238994 237993
      233992 232995 234997 236999 238000 242001 244002 247003
      249004 252004
 0.50 555996 554988 552978 550969 545961 543955 541945 539937
      535928 531924 527920 521916 513915 507902 503901 501901
      499906 498914 494920 484922 484927 487934 489939 488939
      480942 476946 474950 475956 477960 481962 487962 491960
      496954 501949 507946 516953 526963 537959 541966 543976
      548988 552995 555996
 0.50 529167 530162 529159 529154 527151 526150 524150 521150
      519152 517156 518160 520162 521165 524168 525169 528169
      529167
 0.50 531074 531071 530066 528065 527065 525068 523070 521075
      521078 522081 524082 527082 529080 531077 531074
 0.50 477852 478845 477839 474827 469816 465807 460800 454795
      449794 446796 444801 443808 442814 443820 444828 444835
      443841 442846 436856 426868 421877 418890 416898 413908
      409918 406922 401925 397925 394927 391932 390936 389950
      389957 391962 394965 397966 403961 412942 417936 425931
      433927 443925 450922 454920 459920 468918 471915 474912
      469868 470864 472860 475856 477852
 0.50 453107 453105 453103 453101 453100 452097 450096 448096
      447097 446097 445099 444100 444101 444104 445106 445108
      446109 447110 449111 450111 452110 452109 453107
 0.50 451078 450075 450073 449073 448072 448073 447075 448077
      448078 449079 451078
 0.50 311886 312884 311882 311879 311877 310876 310877 309880
      309882 310884 310886 311887 311886
 0.50 310869 310867 310865 310864 309863 309860 309858 308856
      307855 307854 305854 304857 305859 306861 307863 308864
      309865 309867 310869 310870 310869
 0.50 308884 306880 302879 291883 285887 282891 279896 276904
      268911 266913 266919 265926 263931 259938 257943 257948
      258953 257957 256961 257964 263964 272964 278962 283960
      289956 295954 298952 301948 302943 302936 301931 304922
      303915 302909 301897 303891 305888 308884
 0.50 302840 302838 301836 299834 299833 297832 295830 294830
      293830 291829 289829 288831 288833 290834 291835 293837
      295838 295839 297840 297841 299842 301842 302840
 0.50 265080 265076 264074 262072 260071 258069 256067 253067
      252069 254070 256072 258074 259076 261079 263080 265080
 0.50 264813 264811 264809 263809 262807 261805 260805 259805
      258805 257805 256807 258809 258810 259811 260812 261813
      262814 264813 264813
 1.00 463846 463839 461832 457829 453830 452833 451838 449843
      444856 442861 443870 446884 444889 442887 439882 433878
      430877 425880 423885 422895 417904 413917 412922 411926
      412930 417928 422924 431920 441915 449909 451901 451892
      453887 454880 454871 455863 460855 463846
 1.00 409938 409933 403931 398931 396931 394936 393943 394949
      395954 400955 403952 405949 407945 409940 409938
 1.00 300922 298915 298903 296896 294893 289893 285897 281904
      272913 270917 270922 268929 264935 262938 261943 263950
      261958 263959 267959 274956 279951 282948 285947 291948
      295947 297943 298936 296933 296930 300922
 1.50 450867 450865 450862 450860 450859 448859 448860 447863
      448865 448867 449870 450868 450867
 1.50 436902 436897 435892 432884 428885 427888 426893 427900
      427907 423907 419909 417910 415914 415919 417923 420921
      422918 428913 433909 435906 436902
 1.50 403947 404945 404943 403940 402939 401940 400943 400945
      400947 402949 403947 403947
 1.50 296918 297910 296901 295898 292898 288903 284906 279910
      276913 274916 274921 273926 270932 267936 265939 265943
      267949 267953 265956 270956 274950 277947 283944 287941
      289935 291929 295924 296918
 2.00 432895 431893 430892 430893 430895 431896 432895
 2.00 295910 295904 293901 288908 286911 282913 279916 277921
      274929 270937 272943 276943 283941 285937 286932 288928
      291924 294916 295910
 3.00 290918 290916 288917 284918 283919 281922 279925 278927
      277930 276933 279935 281935 281933 282929 283927 285925
      287922 289920 290918

$$





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