Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
811
FXUS04 KWBC 180604
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
203 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 18/1200 UTC THRU SEP 19/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...DAY 1...


...KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY BLENDING PREVIOUS WPC WITH SOME ARW/NMMB
TO ADD DETAIL CONSISTENT WITH UNCERTAINTY...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NRN ROCKIES...

THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS REMAIN REASONABLY
CLUSTERED WITH HANDLING OF AN ERN GULF OF AK LOW THAT IS FCST TO
DROP SEWD WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FCST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
SWRN COAST OF B.C. LATER TODAY.  INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING POST FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS THAT
WILL PERSIST THRU THE PD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CASCADES AND OLYMPIC
RANGES OF WA AND OREGON..WITH MOIST SW FLOW SPREADING MODERATE
PCPN AMOUNTS EASTWARD TO THE BLUE MTNS...CENTRAL/NRN ID MTNS...AND
INTO WRN MT AND THE TETONS/NW WY. GIVEN THE GOOD TIMING/AMPLITUDE
OF THE MODELS...HAVE GENERALLY MAINTAINED CONTINUITY. PLEASE ALSO
REFER TO WPC WINTER WEATHER DESK PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFO
REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED ELEVATION SNOWS ACROSS THE
REGION.


...EAST-CENTRAL U.S...

A S/WV TROF NOW EXITING THE GREAT BASIN IS FCST TO MOVE RAPIDLY
ENEWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TONIGHT
BEFORE CONTINUING TO DAMPEN OUT THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY TO THE
MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL ACT TO INCREASE LIFT OVER
A SLOW MOVING FRONT NOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY.
EMBEDDED ELEVATED AND SURFACE BASED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION MON AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS AND LIFTS ENEWD
ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FCST TO INCREASE TO 40 KTS
MON WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DECENT MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU
THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY. THERE REMAINS DECENT
SUPPORT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERSECTION OF THE SFC LOW AND LEADING WARM FRONT AND
REDEVELOPMENT FROM ERN KS/NE OK EWD TO IA/MO/IL. FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET LIFT ALSO SUPPORTS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ALONG/NORTH OF THE LOW ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS INTO
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST.


...ERN U.S...

THE OUTER BANDS OF JOSE SHOULD SKIRT THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC
BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS MODEST DAY1. LATER PERIOD
TRACK STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE NERN US DAY1 SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME FLOW/RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT INTO SRN/ERN NEW ENG LEADING INTO
DAY 2/3.

SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 19/12Z
 0.01 542198 535195 528194 522186 518183 513181 511183 511186
      512191 511198 509201 503199 500198 501201 505208 507214
      508218 509230 512242 515250 516262 516272 514280 511293
      507299 503302 499303 492305 489306 486309 481315 476319
      473321 470320 466318 464315 460308 457298 455292 452289
      446284 439280 435273 433271 431265 430262 428258 420255
      415252 410250 404248 401245 398243 397239 396236 398234
      403230 407227 410225 415221 417216 418209 417204 418198
      421194 423188 427181 427175 423174 420173 416174 414174
      412172 410168 410163 411152 413146 415139 416134 417130
      415128 411121 410117 410113 419102 422092 426085 430084
      436084 438083 438080 437074 437069 439066 444062 450058
      453056 458054 464053 471049 485040 491035 496035 498033
      506034 509034 512037 514039 517043 516055 521065 527072
      546098 557122
 0.01 523693 523691 522688 524685 523683 523680 523677 521675
      521673 520670 520668 514652 510654 508658 504660 501666
      500669 501673 499677 498682 495678 494670 491667 489679
      486694 487702 486707 484718 483725 480728 474733 467739
      456751 446763 442767 437767 432768 428770 423772 419775
      413781 408784 402784 398781 398777 387774 386777 386781
      384783 378788 373795 367802 363808 361816 368816 378815
      383813 386811 392805 400800 406800 410801 419803 421807
      422811 420813 412819 396835 391839 384845 378852 371858
      366863 360869 356876 354879 353883 353895 352901 350905
      344912 337916 326898 320887 314880 311878 309874 306873
      302875 299878 298883 294889 290898 287906 288918 290925
      291930 291936 288945 279960 275964 272970 272974 275978
      278981 283983 287985 292985 298979 306974 308973 311969
      312962 312943 313937 314933 316930 321928 324927 327929
      328936 329941 332944 338943 345939 353933 355934 355938
      353945 350951 347955 341962 340967 340974 342978 342984
      345994 342004 336008 327009 323016 318022 310023 298023
      293025 288024 284030 280040 281045 282047 285048 291050
      297050 307055 325053 328038 330033 333030 341025 347020
      350018 354018 359018 360015 363005 366001 369997 375991
      382983 390985 394988 399990 404992 407992 410991 414989
      427981 433981 437979 443972 449967 452966 454968 459974
      464979 466982 469981 474979 477977 478969 477963 476959
      472956 463957 461950 462943 462933 462926 465917 469907
      470896 472869 469859 464854 459857 456858 453855 452851
      449848 444841 437837 431837 430834 431832 449819 456813
      463804 489780 493774 496768 500758 502747 511729
 0.01 511729 512726 513723 514720 515720 516717 517714 518711
      519711 520708 521705 522702 522699 523696 523695 523693
 0.01 521149 520141 520133 519130 520124 522120 523118 525115
      524113 521109 516103 512101 503106 497109 493112 489114
      486115 484118 483120 484124 487129 491133 497136 505145
      511147 513149 516150 521149
 0.01 490193 488188 485187 484184 481184 477183 475185 470188
      466191 463196 465202 470201 475200 480198 486197 490193
 0.01 484667 482661 478660 474662 474664 474670 472674 470678
      471683 475682 477677 479673 482670 484667
 0.01 453686 452674 449664 446660 443658 437660 435659 434657
      430653 426652 424653 415656 413658 408660 409669 409672
      408674 405676 395676 387681 381685 378691 374697 368702
      356710 349716 338719 332724 327729 321734 318739 309772
      305778 302780 299779 294779 292778 286781 282783 277783
      274782 271783 267783 262784 256789 251794 249799 248802
      249806 251808 254810 257812 262812 268815 284821 288820
      291818 295815 306806 316795 321789 322786 319781 326771
      328767 333767 338769 344774 350776 355778 360777 363775
      367775 376774 381771 384768 387767 393762 404752 410747
      418740 421737 424736 425740 425745 424751 425756 427758
      430757 433754 432744 434739 437735 439731 438727 435725
      433725 432722 434720 435718 444706 450694 453686
 0.01 448717 448714 446715 444715 443715 443716 444718 445717
      446717 448717 448717
 0.01 316097 317092 316089 314086 314082 310077 308070 304065
      299061 292060 286061 279063 273063 266062 264062 264066
      266072 270077 275081 278086 285097 295103 299103 303102
      309100 316097
 0.01 262017 261008 260003 259000 255996 248993 238993 237995
      236999 240005 243010 246018 248020 252021 259019 262017
 0.25 502278 504273 505268 505255 503249 500244 497226 492214
      489210 481207 471209 457209 450206 447204 444204 439207
      434211 430214 426220 425226 425233 421236 419241 423246
      430249 443254 469264 475265 483268 480269 478276 478283
      480287 483289 486290 488288 491284 493279 496278 502278
 0.25 498734 498732 498729 498727 498724 497723 495723 493724
      492725 491726 490728 490729 490731 490734 490736 491739
      492740 493740 495740 496738 497737 498735 498734
 0.25 487162 488157 487154 483147 480140 476141 470140 463131
      462124 464115 464109 461103 458097 457095 452093 441095
      436095 431094 430102 428110 429115 435117 444124 445128
      443132 440139 437145 436150 436157 436167 437170 439172
      446173 447179 448189 451193 455191 463182 466176 470173
      480168 484166 487162
 0.25 444671 443669 441668 440668 438670 438672 438673 438675
      438678 438680 440681 441680 442679 443676 443674 444673
      444671
 0.25 446945 446931 446924 445920 443919 434919 426916 423915
      422910 419898 415889 411882 408874 407870 410866 412860
      410854 406848 399849 394851 390853 380866 377872 371881
      367887 365891 363896 362900 362906 363914 364921 366941
      366951 363964 364975 365979 368978 383968 385967 390966
      398963 401962 403966 409968 408971 407975 406981 408982
      411980 420963 424962 427964 431963 433961 442954 445948
      446945
 0.25 411713 411705 407700 399696 391692 385692 381695 373703
      365708 347721 343722 337725 330732 328736 327743 329751
      332755 338757 346760 358761 368760 379756 389751 396744
      402737 408727 411716 411713
 0.25 352982 353980 353978 353976 353974 353971 352970 350971
      349974 349976 349978 349980 350981 351982 351983 352982
 0.25 303966 303964 303963 303962 301960 301959 299958 297958
      296959 295960 294961 293962 293964 294965 294966 296968
      297969 299969 301968 303967 303966
 0.25 291799 288795 283792 278789 272791 266793 260795 259799
      261802 265805 271807 276808 284807 289804 291799
 0.50 497265 497260 495254 491246 483240 479233 477229 471226
      470224 472219 470215 465214 458215 439214 432218 430222
      430226 435236 436240 440243 449247 456248 466249 475251
      484251 489259 493266 496267 497265
 0.50 486220 488218 487216 485216 484215 482216 483219 484219
      485220 486220 486220
 0.50 478218 478217 476217 478218 478218
 0.50 474161 474154 472152 464149 458145 451143 445145 442148
      440151 439158 440161 443164 446165 450166 457164 464168
      468167 470165 474161
 0.50 458181 462179 460177 457179 456182 457183 458181
 0.50 456113 456108 456105 453103 450102 449102 446102 442103
      441105 441110 442113 444116 446117 449119 450119 453117
      455115 456113
 0.50 439947 440936 438932 434933 428937 423938 418935 414935
      410937 407942 405945 402946 399944 400939 402931 406924
      407917 408913 409909 406899 404889 402885 397881 391875
      390872 387871 382875 379882 377886 374889 371894 369901
      368911 369923 370931 370941 370951 370957 373961 379961
      384958 397950 400950 402953 405959 409960 413959 421956
      426958 433957 437952 439947
 0.50 399721 400714 398707 393701 387697 383698 380700 373706
      365710 359714 353719 338727 332734 331737 331741 335749
      340754 358754 365753 374749 381745 387741 394734 397728
      399721
 0.50 395867 395865 396862 394860 392859 391860 390861 390863
      390865 391866 392867 393869 392872 393874 394872 394869
      395869 395867
 0.50 280794 278793 278792 277792 276793 276795 277796 279796
      280794
 1.00 460240 460238 460236 459235 459234 458234 457235 455235
      453235 451236 450237 449239 451241 452242 454243 456242
      457242 458242 459240 460240
 1.00 450226 459222 449220 439220 438220 437221 437223 439225
      441225 442226 444226 446226 447226 448226 449225 450226
 1.00 388716 387707 383704 371710 364713 359716 355720 351723
      344726 340729 336734 336741 340745 345747 356748 363747
      368744 376737 384728 387723 388716
 1.00 389933 391930 390927 389920 388915 386911 383909 380909
      377913 377920 378927 379931 380936 384939 387937 389933
 1.50 384715 384711 382709 378709 367713 362715 359718 351724
      344727 341731 340735 341740 345743 350744 355744 361743
      365741 369738 375731 382722 384715
 2.00 381716 378712 375712 366715 361718 358721 351726 343730
      343735 345739 353741 359739 362738 370732 376726 380718
      381716
 3.00 374722 373717 368717 363718 360722 356725 354728 350731
      349733 350735 356734 361733 365730 369728 373725 374722
 4.00 370723 370720 368720 367721 366721 365722 363723 362724
      363726 364727 366726 367725 369723 370723

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.