Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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264
FXUS04 KWBC 281846
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 29/0000 UTC THRU JUL 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

THERE ARE A LOT OF MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES WITH THE AXIS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD.  DIFFERENCES BEGIN
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION BEGINNING
TO ENHANCE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE HI RES ARW AND HRRR ARE FARTHER SOUTH---TAKING THIS ACTIVITY
MORE TO THE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC---COMPARED TO SOME OF THE
FARTHER NORTHWARD SOLUTIONS MOVING FROM EASTERN PA INTO SOUTHERN
NY.  THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN MAY BE EXHIBITING THEIR BIAS OF BEING
TOO FAR TO THE NORTH WITH CONVECTIVE EVENTS---WITH THE FARTHER
SOUTH 12Z HI RES ARW AND NAM CONEST AXIS FAVORED.  AS THE INITIAL
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT AS
IT MOVES OFFSHORE---PRECIP MAY FIRE FARTHER TO THE NORTH---BUT
STILL BELIEVE THE FARTHER NORTHWARD GFS---0000 UTC ECMWF SOLUTIONS
ARE CONTAMINATED FROM POSSIBLY BEING TOO FAR NORTH INITIALLY.
WITH PW VALUES MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING
CONVECTION---HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY OF THE DC---BWI---PHL
CORRIDOR.

CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS

WEST NORTHWEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS TONIGHT INTO THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS REGION.  AT THE MOMENT---BELIEVE CONVECTION
WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST---WITH THE SLIGHTLY
FASTER HI RES-ARW FOLLOWED FOR TIMING DETAILS.  MODERATE TO HEAVY
TOTALS POSSIBLE--WITH ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE WHERE
TRAINING IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION OCCURS.

LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY...LOWER OH VALLEY

LESS CONFIDENCE WITH THE QPF DETAILS FARTHER TO THE EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT LYING FROM THE
LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY.  EXPECT THE UPSTREAM
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AFTER 1200 UTC WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THEN FIRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
FRONT.  THIS WILL SUPPORT AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
TOTALS.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 436632 440634 444637 447643 448651 448655 450657 454658
      458659 460666 457675 453684 441700 443712 443718 442723
      440727 437731 427736 424739 423744 421756 417778 421790
      423807 423813 425819 431828 431833 432836 435837 440834
      441836 444839 446844 448850 448856 448862 447868 447875
      446882 445888 445896 445910 445916 442920 440923 436926
      429923 425922 419922 415921 413914 409901 409895 408887
      405878 401871 399866 395864 391862 389861 387865 387870
      387877 384886 383892 382900 383906 386909 391917 393926
      394940 394955 389962 397968 401972 404975 409984 412993
      412998 409003 403009 399017 398022 398027 400027 405021
      409012 413001 418993 421989 424987 434987 445985 448983
      451978 454974 457971 464971 466975 467981 467987 469992
      469001 468015 466027 464032 462036 459035 454032 449025
      445022 443020 440019 439017 436017 431016 423020 419031
      419039 422043 423052 425058 423060 419063 415066 410068
      405068 398062 389062 382059 376059 375066 376070 373071
      365066 358067 357062 353060 352057 353054 354047 355032
      356015 356009 358005 360002 362999 360995 357992 351984
      345975 341967 341954 341942 340935 337932 334929 329928
      317928 305929 302929 301933 299937 298941 297946 294954
      292958 288962 285962 281960 279955 279950 281945 281939
      285928 287917 287906 286895 286884 286877 287873 287861
      283851 277844 274842 270841 263837 254830 248825 242821
      242815 243812 249808 249803 250801 254800 265801 282806
      289811 295817 296821 295824 291827 287830 285833 289835
      294840 298850 300852 303852 307849 313849 317851 320852
      323856 323876 332856 336849 338845 341840 346833 348822
      351813 356806 358803 364801 368795 370784 369769 370759
      373749 376740 377734 376726 374712 373706 374701
 0.01 374701 376697 379694 384693 390692 393692 392685 391679
      390672 391667 390662 391657 394652 395647 396644
 0.01 532173 530163 526156 517143 511137 505134 497132 490128
      484122 482113 480104 477096 471091 463088 462084 461079
      457073 442067 438066 436069 434072 436076 441080 438083
      436084 428084 425086 424091 428097 437098 445100 447104
      451106 456106 460108 464114 467121 470125 473127 478133
      485137 490142 496147 502153 507159 512164 517171 521176
      526178 529177 532173
 0.01 220082 222089 224094 232101 255104 257106 261107 266106
      273107 278109 282112 287111 298116 300118 304119 309117
      313114 318112 328110 331110 334112 336113 338117 339124
      342129 352134 358135 362138 369147 375148 381146 384145
      385143 383136 382130 385124 389116 387113 384113 379116
      376118 371121 364120 360117 355114 351108 349103 347098
      343086 340075 336073 330075 321081 314081 307080 301079
      298075 295070 294067 294062 295046 290036 290029 289023
      287018 283013 275013 272013 269011 261005 252999 248996
      242996 234999 231003 230007
 0.01 386029 383024 381020 379016 378012 374010 371007 367005
      367007 367014 368021 370025 373027 379028 382030 386029
 0.25 518159 517156 516156 515155 515156 516158 517159 518159
      518159
 0.25 431680 431673 429668 426661 423655 417651 413652 411655
      406660 403675 400692 398700 395705 387709 383714 383722
      384729 379744 378753 377762 379781 377798 378803 381804
      386799 395789 399783 402776 403769 405765 408761 411756
      413748 419735 424720 427704 430690 431680
 0.25 432885 433878 432871 429861 424854 419846 416843 412841
      410845 409850 410857 412861 416868 418872 416876 416882
      418886 422893 425894 427894 430891 432885
 0.25 398991 398986 396983 391978 381968 377963 374960 370959
      365954 362952 359951 354956 352958 351963 352972 354980
      358987 363992 367997 373002 383013 386015 390013 393007
      398991
 0.25 386936 386931 384927 380920 378916 377910 376900 369882
      368876 365874 364874 361878 360883 357885 353890 348898
      344905 341913 340918 341921 349924 354923 357921 359921
      363923 370927 370931 373935 379940 381942 384941 386936
 0.25 380827 379823 378819 376816 372817 367821 364829 362836
      359845 359849 358852 360853 364852 367849 370844 375837
      378832 380827
 0.25 287097 288090 288085 286081 283077 279068 276059 272051
      266043 259038 251033 243030 237028 233029 229033 228038
      227042 226048 225061 226072 229082 231085 235087 254095
      276100 283101 287097
 0.25 283821 283817 281816 277813 271810 267808 261806 256805
      255808 256811 260815 264818 270819 275822 281822 283821
 0.50 424679 423670 419667 416668 413670 409674 406679 404684
      402697 399709 393718 390723 388729 384740 381745 380751
      379764 380773 382779 384784 386785 390784 397775 398768
      397761 398752 403753 406752 409746 415735 417730 418724
      421711 423699 423687 424679
 0.50 393997 391990 388986 380977 374967 370963 366958 363954
      358954 355960 354967 354976 357983 364990 369992 374997
      381006 387008 391004 393997
 0.50 372911 372907 371903 368898 365892 363890 360892 357896
      353901 351906 349912 351917 357915 364914 368915 370914
      372911
 0.50 279092 280087 279084 276077 270063 266057 262051 258047
      252042 245039 239037 235039 233041 230048 229057 229067
      230073 234079 240084 246087 253090 262092 271093 279092
 1.00 416700 416693 414687 412684 409687 406696 404706 402716
      398726 399730 401734 403736 406735 410732 412727 414717
      415706 416700
 1.00 394766 394759 393754 391748 388744 386744 383748 382754
      382759 382766 383772 384777 388779 390776 393772 394766
      394766
 1.00 263078 263074 262070 258064 254059 248054 243051 239051
      237053 236058 236063 239070 245073 251077 257080 261080
      263078
 1.50 413701 413694 412692 409692 408695 407700 406705 405710
      404717 404722 406726 408724 409719 410714 412709 413704
      413701
 1.50 392762 391757 390755 389751 387749 386749 385753 385756
      385761 386765 386770 386773 386775 388774 389771 390767
      391764 392762

$$





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