Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 041900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EST THU FEB 04 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 05/0000 UTC THRU FEB 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO NYC METRO AREA AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ELONGATED MEAN TROF
THROUGH THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN NC TONIGHT---WITH
THE DEEPENING LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSING APPROXIMATELY
100 NM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
 THERE HAS BEEN A WESTWARD TREND IN THE LATEST NAM...GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO AFFECT THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NYC METRO AREA AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.  GIVEN THE CONSENSUS FOR THIS WESTWARD SHIFT...THE
UPDATED QPF WAS ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD.  A DEVELOPING COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW THREAT FOR THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC FROM IN THE VICINITY OF
DE/NJ...NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE NYC METRO AREA
AND INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  PRECIP MAY START AS RAIN ACROSS
THESE AREAS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD
FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

FLORIDA PENINSULA

THE SLOW MOVING AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT HAS
BROUGHT HEAVY RAINS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW ALONG THE NC COAST HELPS TO PROPEL THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT SOUTHWARD.  SUBSEQUENTLY...PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL DECREASE DAY 1 AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER TO THE
NORTH WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SLOWER MOVING.  AREAL
AVERAGE.10 TO .25" AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD DAY 1 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FL PENINSULA.

NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING OUT OF THE
MEAN MS VALLEY TROF POSITION---ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.  LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP TOTALS LIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.

COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST

SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY
INTO THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT AREA
OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING THE COAST.  LATEST
BLENDED TPW LOOPS SHOW A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT.  THIS HIGH PW AXIS AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS FOR COASTAL OREGON...COASTAL WASHINGTON STATE...THE OLYMPIC
RANGE AND INLAND INTO THE WA CASCADES.  STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE OLYMPICS WILL SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THIS AREA DAY
1 WITH 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 467621 468625 474623 478622 483622 487624 487629 485638
      481657 477666 475671 471676 460692 459697 456701 454705
      456707 458704 464700 468699 469702 468707 465712 457717
      454723 453729 451740 447748 445752 443749 441744 439739
      438735 437732 434733 427740 420745 395773 389779 383785
      378790 370795 353806 339815 330818 320820 300825 282833
      268841 259844 256846 251847 245847 242845 240842 240837
      242832 242830 239831 233831 230828 229822 229816 231808
      240796 245790 252783 263769 270764 273760 276757 281752
      288747 301736 309730 318726 321723 322721 321719 318715
      318711 319707 322704 327698 334690 341684 354672 362666
      368661 373660 375657 385654 396651 401649 408646 415645
      421643 425639 429634
 0.01 422313 429315 434315 439314 445315 451314 457315 462316
      467316 474317 479317 485318 491318 496318 502317
      524259 522251 520242 518233 514224 511218 508210 505202
      505196 508194 512200 518206 520214 525219 527219 529219
      531221 534223 541203 538194 537184 533178 528172 524167
      522165 519164 514165 506165 499167 492167 489166 487162
      483157 474148 478143 481142 483143 488149 492150 493147
      488133 487126 481122 480120 477121 475121 471124 462136
      458140 452144 448148 441146 439144 437146 434150 434155
      435159 437161 442166 444170 445173 447177 446182 441185
      442191 448190 451194 453196 458190 462185 464182 465177
      463175 459174 456172 455167 456162 459161 462160 466162
      471165 478167 479161 481164 485169 487172 491173 491188
      488190 489192 488198 484198 471203 467207 462208 458208
      454213 447216 445217 440217 434220 427220 425220 423224
      429227 431229 432232 431234 428236 425236 421235 418236
      416236 413240 411250 408258 401272 395285 392291 393295
      396297 402298 407301 414304 416311
 0.01 493061 494052 494044 491031 489021 488007 487000 485994
      483989 480986 474980 474964 475956 477950 482940 485930
      490922 492918 494911 493896 493889 491885 490881 488878
      488874 493848 493843 491837 486831 479827 473827 469826
      468823 470819 471814 476805 474799 472795 468793 465788
      462784 457785 452786 449789 443795 442799 440804 438809
      435811 430814 427819 425823 428824 432823 435821 438820
      444821 446824 451826 453828 456832 454835 450843 444853
      440854 436854 433853 429855 423865 421873 423877 427881
      437894 441903 443906 446904 453894 455891 457885 459884
      461886 463888 461891 462905 464907 462912 456916 448923
      446927 442930 428944 426947 424954 424959 423964 421969
      421975 426982 429985 434985 436985 438983 442983 446980
      448981 448985 446990 443996 441000 443005 447005 451007
      454008 457010 462011 465009 467011 466013 464018 464027
      465033 466035 464038 462040 458044 455047 456051 459055
      463057 464060 464064 462068 462073 465077 473079 482075
      486070 489068 493061
 0.01 484095 483092 479091 476091 474093 467092 464094 463097
      461100 458098 453094 450092 443095 435094 431092 430089
      426086 424087 426091 428098 429101 428104 421104 422112
      418113 414112 412110 411105 409100 405107 400111 395113
      390115 394115 402117 406118 408120 411121 413123 417128
      422133 426131 430125 434121 438120 442122 447126 451124
      455118 460115 467115 471115 472113 476109 478104 481101
      484095
 0.01 453081 451077 449073 445070 441069 438069 435071 433071
      432073 436071 441073 444077 448080 451081 453081
 0.01 449049 448044 447041 447039 445036 443033 442033 440036
      438038 438043 439043 441045 444048 446048 449049
 0.01 433771 431766 428769 424772 422774 419773 418776 418783
      415788 414795 414797 412800 406801 406807 409810 412816
      416816 420814 424810 429802 432796 430792 432790 433784
      432776 433771
 0.01 430063 429058 430056 427045 432023 432016 431011 429006
      429000 427990 424987 421987 417989 416985 416982 416976
      414973 411970 407972 405975 403979 392016 391023 393027
      394032 391035 385038 384041 387043 391043 394039 399039
      404041 407043 409047 408053 404053 382069 380069 377064
      375062 371061 371067 372071 372075 374080 387091 390089
      389086 386082 387079 390079 395085 398088 400086 403083
      407082 411082 415079 421078 425075 430063
 0.01 412019 413015 413010 413005 411001 410005 408007 408010
      406014 404016 404019 402023 405026 407023 410021 412019
 0.01 403790 396791 389794 379803 373808 368813 356819 353823
      350824 347831 348833 351831 357835 360828 363823 368816
      375817 385807 397798 401794 403790
 0.01 304761 300760 297760 295763 292764 287768 283771 278774
      275778 272781 275782 281778 285775 289772 294768 299765
      304761
 0.01 274783 272781 270782 269783 270785 272784 274783
 0.25 521269 520257 519246 516237 512228 506219 500213 498210
      493207 484207 479208 476209 470214 463216 460218 458220
      458224 462227 466225 472221 479221 484222 486225 485233
      482231 480226 475225 468229 461231 453233 446236 432246
      426251 422253 420257 418266 419271 421277 424280 428282
      433284 435289 439291 438295 431302 430306 433307 441305
      457305 475307 490307 500306 508301
 0.25 531202 531196 528192 525187 523184 521181 517177 515176
      515182 517188 518191 521195 524200 527203 528204 531202
 0.25 477646 476639 473637 466637 461636 453636 446637 438640
      427647 420651 414657 405667 397676 392681 387689 383694
      378700 369709 359717 349727 331748 322758 312766 296789
      279809 270820 269823 271827 274827 277825 289818 301813
      317807 329801 342796 355789 367781 377773 398755 408744
      417733 433711 466665 472655 477646
 0.50 518273 519263 518256 517250 515243 510232 504222 496213
      492211 487211 484212 483214 486218 488223 489231 486236
      482237 481234 478228 475227 470230 467236 462246 458252
      458256 459259 463261 466267 470273 470280 468288 471294
      480301 484302 490302 500301 509296 512292 514284 518273
 0.50 466644 462642 456642 450643 443645 431650 422656 412665
      405673 397682 391690 383701 376708 360725 352733 346741
      339749 332758 324767 315773 312778 311784 304792 300796
      299798 299802 305803 312802 324797 333792 354781 364775
      373770 383762 391755 399747 407738 422721 428712 434703
      448683 455673 460663 464653 466644
 0.50 452295 453292 452292 451293 449294 450295 452295 452295
 1.00 515269 516262 515256 512244 508235 502226 499222 495220
      493222 492227 494234 496239 498244 496245 493242 488239
      484242 481242 480235 477231 473232 471234 471238 473244
      475248 479251 481256 485266 486271 486279 487285 489289
      497295 501295 505293 508290 511284 515269
 1.00 454658 454654 453652 449652 440655 423664 416671 410677
      399691 387703 381710 377717 366731 353743 346749 341755
      333771 328778 330781 334781 342778 351773 366764 382754
      393742 405729 416715 427702 437686 441677 446671 452664
      454658
 1.50 508285 509279 509273 507266 503259 498253 493246 491243
      486243 485247 485253 487262 489270 492276 495285 497288
      501290 505289 507287 508285
 1.50 511257 511250 509246 508240 505237 501233 500232 497231
      499237 501241 503245 505250 506256 510259 511257
 1.50 479238 478236 478234 476233 474234 472236 473238 474239
      475241 476242 476243 477243 478241 478240 479238
 1.50 433679 433675 431673 427673 423675 419678 404691 392705
      385712 379720 371737 365745 363749 367750 371750 375748
      383743 397729 409714 415707 420699 426691 431683 433679
 1.50 363753 361751 358752 356753 353755 352758 350760 349762
      351764 353764 356763 359761 361759 362756 363753
 2.00 506284 507280 507274 506268 503262 500257 496252 492248
      489246 488249 488257 490264 492271 494277 497283 502287
      506284
 2.00 414696 412694 410695 404701 399707 392711 388716 386719
      386724 388726 391724 396719 400712 404707 411702 414696
 3.00 504281 504274 503269 501264 499261 496257 493254 492253
      490255 492261 493266 495270 497274 499279 503282 504281

$$




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