Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 250537
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
135 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 25/1200 UTC THRU AUG 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL PROVIDE COOLING ALOFT, WHILE EMBEDDED WEAKER IMPULSES
INTERACTING WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FOR LATE AUGUST WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ROCKIES, GREAT BASIN, AND SOUTHWEST.  SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN CO DUE TO A MODEST UPSLOPE
COMPONENT.  THE 00Z WPC QPF CONTINUITY WAS MAINTAINED IN THIS
REGION, THOUGH AMOUNTS WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
CO PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE.


SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MAIN QPF FOCUS ACRS THE LOWER 48 STATES THIS PD WILL BE ALONG
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL BNDRY WHERE A POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE
LURED WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW IN THE 20-30 KTS RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT.
 THERE IS A MODERATELY STRONG CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ON A MORE FOCUSED HEAVY QPF AREA DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST KS INTO WESTERN MO AS A SHORTWAVE
PIVOTS THROUGH CO.  THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL JET WITH
THE USUAL NOCTURNAL TIMING.  A FAVORABLY SLIGHTLY CURVED UPPER JET
MAXIMUM LIES TO THE NORTH. FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW COULD
SUPPORT CELL TRAINING.  THIS AREA WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD
FROM 00Z WPC QPF CONTINUITY PER THE MOST RECENT GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.


SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/NY/PA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE BRIEFLY WEAKENING DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75"+ ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND BUILDING INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH
OVERNIGHT/MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD REFIRE CONVECTION FROM SOUTHEAST
MI/NORTHERN OH INTO NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY.  THERE WAS A GOOD
SIGNAL FOR 0.5"+ AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS, THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS WAS
IN QUESTION.  STARTED WITH ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH
WAS HANDLING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY REASONABLY WELL AND USED IDEAS
FROM THE 00Z MESOSCALE GUIDANCE TO INCREASE QPF GRADIENTS.  RADAR
TRENDS WERE USED TO SHIFT THE AXIS FARTHER SOUTHWARD.


LOWER MS VALLEY...CENTRAL GULF COAST...FLORIDA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES MOVING WEST ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE -- ASSOCIATED WITH A DYING RELIC OF
A FRONTAL ZONE -- WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF
COAST LEADING TO AN EXPANSION OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS SAME AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTL FL
WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED THREAT OF CONVECTION THERE COMPARED TO
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN FROM THE NE WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY THERE.  THE DEGREE
OF ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN THE IDEA MORNING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GOLD/TREASURE COASTS WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST FL.  A BLEND OF 00Z WPC
CONTINUITY, 12Z ECMWF, AND 00Z GFS GUIDANCE WAS USED HERE.

ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 556078 555067 552058 549054 545052 537051 531055 527057
      523057 518056 514058 508057 505054 502044 502039 497038
      494040 492046 489058 487062 487068 488072 487080 484085
      479084 481087 484088 485090 481092 480094 484100 478107
      474118 475127 478137 481140 483143 482146 482149 488151
      493166 493171 497174 505176 512173 515172 518172 525178
      529180 534182 539181 538169 537165 538161 538151 538139
      536129 537121 539117 545111 550102 554089 556078
 0.01 526719 524715 523708 521694 521679 517665 513653 509641
      505631 499630 494629 491630 490644 489651 485657 475661
      467667 465669 462670 457669 450677 440692 437698 432703
      427714 422721 412735 407740 402743 398746 395747 393750
      386756 383760 378764 373770 368777 357794 353800 352804
      349809 353811 358806 362804 361808 356815 351822 346831
      344834 343839 342842 344850 345857 344862 341867 339871
      332880 328880 325879 321879 312877 308878 305875 299857
      296849 291846 287843 281842 279837 280835 283835 290837
      293839 299839 301835 299830 296828 295825 298824 305823
      309822 310820 314817 317813 320810 324806 329799 332796
      335791 335785 333785 321797 316802 312803 309804 306805
      304804 302799 297792 295770 293765 290762 283756 274755
      265759 259764 252771 247776 244780 240783 237785 237788
      234795 234800 235806 237825 235848 230866 226876 230887
      236909 241928 244931 246936 250944 257958 261964 263971
      259973 259978 263980 268980 273986 277987 280984 289982
      298977 312967 316967 319965 321967 324971 329971 337973
      338979 335990 333999 327003 322009 317013 305012 298010
      295008 291008 287009 277008 270008 267013 263024 260031
      259033 256033 249033 243033 240032 231036 227038 227043
      228049 230055 236069 244078 251084 258089 271100 275101
      277103 281105 289110 296116 304122 311126 321121 322115
      323110 326109 327107 323100 321091 325090 329091 332092
      329094 325098 327099 329103 336105 340108 342111 346118
      348126 348130 350132 354133 359136 363138 368140 372138
      375141 378146 380150 382156 385155 388156 393154 395147
      393138 395133 393128
 0.01 393128 395123 395118 398115 403114 407110 409105 411096
      415093 417107 419114 426116 433116 436115 439117 445119
      449119 450117 451109 454108 457110 461112 464110 468107
      468105 465104 459103 456101 454099 452092 448087 445081
      447082 450086 454087 455084 454077 456069 459062 457059
      454063 451059 455024 454017 452009 450000 445999 441001
      437007 430016 416027 411030 404029 398031 395031 393028
      392024 392019 392014 394010 395000 397993 399986 402980
      406968 409957 409949 410947 409942 410938 411930 414918
      426855 439807 443792 450780 454774 460775 466776 472776
      476779 479784 483791 487809 490824 490846 491857 490864
      489884 488889 487891 483899 481903 480909 480916 482919
      485920 487924 486934 482946 480952 481962 484980 485982
      488983 495985 499983 504978 507977 510975 511973 515965
      521951 523944 524937 525928 527925 528919 529910 528905
      520873 517858 516843 515823 515812 515802 517785 518777
      520770 525757 526754 526748 525742 526738 525727 526719
 0.01 445155 445154 444152 443151 442149 442147 441144 440143
      439143 437142 435142 435143 435145 435146 436148 436149
      437151 438152 439152 441154 443155 444155 445155
 0.01 418081 418076 415073 408074 405079 402086 402090 400092
      396096 395103 395105 398108 401108 404106 405103 405098
      406094 408091 411084 414082 418081
 0.01 418069 417068 415068 414068 414071 415073 417071 418069
 0.01 385831 381830 376831 371831 368834 365843 361850 355868
      353888 351891 351897 352900 355900 358898 362904 364905
      364909 368917 371913 372909 376902 379893 381884 384875
      385866 385862 383859 382861 384841 384834 385831
 0.01 381786 378785 375787 373788 371790 370793 368795 365798
      363800 362803 365803 367801 369799 371797 373795 375793
      377792 380789 381786
 0.01 339133 338129 338126 336123 334121 332120 329119 326120
      326124 328125 329127 330131 333133 336133 339133
 0.25 527169 527168 527166 526164 526163 525161 523160 522162
      523165 524168 525169 527170 527169
 0.25 522136 523128 520122 518119 517116 517111 517093 514090
      512084 509080 506078 503082 503088 505094 505104 505109
      504118 504122 508127 512129 514131 515134 517138 520138
      522136 522136
 0.25 514709 514701 512691 508677 505675 501677 497684 495691
      491703 489710 486715 482715 478708 474704 471704 469706
      466708 466705 460706 459708 458713 461716 464716 463721
      466727 472729 479728 481728 481732 484739 486749 486760
      490773 493782 496787 500790 502783 506769 510757 511747
      511736 510729 511721 514709
 0.25 512874 510855 507833 505827 503826 501829 498835 496844
      496853 497865 498886 499896 499903 499908 497925 499927
      502927 506921 508914 510905 512885 512874
 0.25 502147 501146 500144 500143 498142 497143 498145 500146
      500147 501149 502147
 0.25 500139 500136 499134 499133 498133 497136 498138 499141
      500139
 0.25 466712 467709 466708 465710 466712 466712
 0.25 443745 443740 441738 436734 431731 426737 422741 419747
      413761 410775 409785 410790 412793 410800 409808 406826
      402859 402868 404877 404882 406887 408890 409887 412883
      414875 418858 422845 424836 427829 430814 432795 434780
      439765 441755 443745
 0.25 447075 446073 446072 445071 443071 441072 443073 444074
      444075 446075 447075
 0.25 438095 439093 438092 436090 435089 433089 431088 430087
      428087 427089 427091 428092 429094 431096 432097 434098
      435097 436097 438095 438095
 0.25 441041 441036 438032 435033 432037 434042 434045 433052
      433058 435063 437059 438052 439048 441042 441041
 0.25 427058 427053 422052 419048 417045 412043 406044 406049
      408052 413054 416055 421057 425060 427058
 0.25 404056 366027 372023 377015 386998 394982 399966 401958
      403949 403940 402930 400907 399902 395903 391908 374937
      370943 364949 361949 358945 353938 350931 349923 349919
      346918 340919 332919 326915 313909 306906 302901 300895
      299889 299883 298878 291875 283873 276869 273865 272859
      270843 268834 270831 273830 276828 277824 273816 269811
      267808 267804 283806 285806 286801 280796 273793 266792
      261791 257790 251796 248801 246809 246823 248833 250841
      247857 243865 241874 241878 243882 247889 251895 257901
      262906 264913 266920 265927 266935 269940 274945 276949
      280951 285951 289951 294954 299954 304953 311949 323940
      328936 332934 335935 336940 338945 341950 343952 348956
      354959 358959 359962 359970 357978 354986 350994 346000
      337012 328025 323031 319034 315035 309031 303031 299033
      294035 290036 286035 280034 275036 268039 261041 257041
      253043 245043 240043 235044 235050 237054 248063 254068
      263072 266074 268077 272083 277088 282091 286092 289092
      291089 291085 288077 288071 289066 291062 294060 299057
      306053 310051 316050 325050 327051 325055 325057 327059
      332058 335056 334053 342053 345048 347046 350048 352050
      353053 354064 356069 352071 349073 349076 348081 351084
      354085 356085 357082 357077 359073 363072 367073 370077
      372082 373084 377087 377092 380095 383094 386091 388086
      391082 394078 394071 404056
 0.25 384140 385138 385136 383136 382138 382140 382142 383142
      384141 384140
 0.25 386127 387124 386122 382119 382117 380115 376117 374114
      372112 369113 367117 367120 370123 372122 373128 376130
      379128 382125 385129 386127
 0.25 381108 380106 379107 378108 379108 380109 381108
 0.25 376057 375057 374057 372057 373058 375058 376057
 0.25 371808 371806 369807 368809 367809 366811 366812 368812
      369811 370811 371809 371808
 0.25 360825 360823 359822 358823 357823 356825 355826 354827
      354828 353830 355831 355830 356829 358828 358827 360826
      360825
 0.50 504877 504875 504874 504875 504877 504878 504877
 0.50 504860 504857 504854 504852 503851 502849 501849 501850
      501852 500855 500856 500857 500860 500862 500865 501866
      502867 503865 504862 504861 504860
 0.50 431747 429745 425746 424749 423752 423760 419783 414805
      409826 408838 406852 407863 409869 411866 413856 416844
      419834 423823 425798 427786 429774 430762 431748 431747
 0.50 397057 396053 394050 390050 386049 381048 376048 372049
      368050 369052 372052 375051 377053 381055 386056 390057
      395059 397057
 0.50 398949 399941 398934 396924 395921 392922 385931 379943
      373954 370962 368970 364981 361988 357994 351002 343013
      337023 329034 332037 338035 344031 349028 357022 367013
      374006 382995 388984 394970 398949
 0.50 380071 381069 382067 381065 380064 378064 377067 378069
      378071 378072 380073 380071
 0.50 361065 360064 359064 358065 359065 360066 361065
 0.50 319930 319926 315922 312921 306921 303923 301926 296934
      292931 288930 283935 283939 286941 288940 296935 299937
      304939 308941 314940 317937 319932 319930
 0.50 306042 308040 307038 306037 304036 302038 301040 301042
      302043 304043 306042 306042
 0.50 291895 291893 291891 290889 289887 287886 285885 283885
      281884 280884 278884 276886 277888 278890 278891 278892
      280894 282895 284896 286896 287896 289897 291895
 0.50 284064 285059 283055 278052 274048 267051 261051 257050
      252050 249050 248054 253058 261061 268063 272063 277065
      282065 284064
 0.50 270882 268878 265874 262872 259869 255866 251866 250867
      252872 254876 256879 259881 263882 269882 270882
 0.50 265817 265815 264814 263813 262812 261811 260811 258810
      258811 258813 259814 260815 261816 262817 263818 264818
      265817
 0.50 260803 260801 259801 257801 255801 254803 253804 254805
      256804 258804 259803 260803
 0.50 262864 263860 262856 262852 262848 261845 258846 257848
      257852 256855 256858 257860 258863 260864 262864
 1.00 391961 393947 392941 389936 386943 383952 379961 375970
      371979 370982 369987 372989 377988 380986 384982 387974
      391963 391961
 1.50 386963 386961 386959 386958 386959 385961 384963 386964
      386963
 1.50 381974 380973 378973 378974 377975 376976 376979 377979
      378977 379977 380975 381974
$$




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