Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 190638
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 19/1200 UTC THRU MAY 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS---LOWER  MO VALLEY---LOWER OH
VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY


ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION LIKELY DAY 1 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS---LOWER MO VALLEY---MID
MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE STRONG CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY THIS PERIOD PUSHES EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THERE IS A STRONG MODEL
SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO PUSH EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MO VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY.  VERY STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE
AHEAD OF THE STRONG CLOSED LOW---STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN AN
AXIS OF PW VALUES 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IS LEADING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.   LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH THE SHORTER TERM
DETAILS GIVEN THE USUAL AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD AND VERIFICATION OF
CURRENT CONVECTION WHICH IS SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SKILL
BUT NO CONSISTENT SUPERIOR PERFORMING MODEL.  AFTER POST 1200 UTC
WEAKENING TO THE CURRENT ORGANIZED ACTIVITY---CONVECTION SHOULD
AGAIN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OF FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE
FRONT STRENGTHENS.  THE ONGOING HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY LOWER FFG
VALUES ACROSS THESE AREAS---WITH THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY SUPPORTING INCREASED
RISK OF RUNOFF ISSUES ACROSS THESE AREAS.

THE LATE SEASON HEAVY SNOWS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE UPCOMING DAY 1 PERIOD---BUT THE OVERALL WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN DURING THE PREVIOUS 24
HOURS.

OH VALLEY---CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE OH
VALLEY WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.  SCATTERED CONVECTION
LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON QPF
DETAILS.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 506659 505652 504644 502635 500630 496621 492615 489615
      486618 481621 473628 468635 464639 462643 459649 460654
      461661 465665 466672 466679 464684 462691 459699 457704
      459709 468707 475700 479699 482695 486690 489688 495681
      499676 501671 506659
 0.01 509204 509187 507180 504174 498162 492152 490147 485146
      481150 477157 476163 477170 478173 481174 486177 490182
      493189 496194 499199 507206 509204
 0.01 497144 497140 496136 493131 488127 483125 477123 473126
      471128 471132 475136 477138 480139 487141 492144 495145
      497144
 0.01 456018 455010 455000 452985 451966 450958 450949 449922
      446903 441887 439882 436879 434876 430860 427844 425837
      424829 417817 412805 407796 403790 400784 399773 398760
      399757 398751 399749 397747 396744 395739 394730 393726
      394722 393714 391706 386693 385691 383692 379693 375696
      374699 374704 373707 370707 366708 359710 356716 355725
      355732 354746 359759 362764 362771 364779 364787 361796
      359804 356810 352817 348822 346829 341843 341849 345855
      352862 355879 354887 352893 350897 347901 342906 332915
      323915 321913 319908 317900 313898 309894 306892 302892
      296892 291895 286899 284904 281916 282920 282924 285930
      290935 292937 296938 302940 311940 319939 324937 328937
      339931 340934 339936 335940 326949 323952 319957 309968
      304972 299978 291987 286992 282995 276007 278012 281016
      288018 289020 289025 290029 293030 297031 307022 312019
      319019 325015 329011 332010 335011 340017 345022 346024
      350025 353029 353034 350041 347044 343050 342059 340063
      342065 345072 348078 351083 352084 356083 359083 363081
      366079 370082 377085 388091 393089 399088 412094 414090
      416088 420088 422087 427087 436088 439079 442073 447073
      448071 449062 448053 450044 452038 454030 455022 456018
 0.01 310831 309826 307822 299817 291813 282809 274807 264804
      256803 248797 244796 240799 239803 239809 240812 238816
      236821 239824 254830 257830 258826 262827 265830 273834
      284835 292838 297839 303839 308835 310831
 0.25 444973 445968 445961 444950 441930 441916 440904 435896
      432888 428879 425873 421866 418863 415862 412860 410856
      406848 403839 401827 399816 396808 394805 391805 384807
      379813 377817 376822 368838 365846 365855 367876 369886
      367896 364904 360914 357920 353925 345937 340944 334949
      322960 314971 305982 299989 297993 296998 297007 299011
      302014 311015 318012 329004 338002 344002 354004 363007
      365009 365013 363022 361032 360040 358050 356056 359058
      364060 368058 372056 376055 379056 382058 388059 395056
      402054 409057 412061 416062 421063 424062 429054 432045
      433035 431028 427026 425023 423021 423017 427014 430013
      437014 441010 442005 443996 443988 444973
 0.25 378773 378771 379769 379766 379764 379762 379760 377759
      375759 374760 374761 372763 372765 372767 372770 373772
      373774 373775 374776 375778 377776 378773 378773
 0.25 294826 289822 285820 279817 275816 269814 264812 263815
      264817 268821 272825 278826 284829 289830 294826
 0.50 438973 440963 440954 438937 435918 431902 426888 423882
      419877 415872 410870 407869 404866 400860 398853 395848
      388838 379843 375846 374848 372858 372873 373889 371897
      369907 367913 363918 357927 349937 330955 323962 319967
      315973 309984 305989 303992 302998 303007 307009 311010
      315009 320007 330000 337997 341997 348997 355998 367994
      378989 384986 389981 397980 401977 404972 407972 408975
      409983 408992 408998 406002 403009 402015 404021 405024
      408023 410016 412009 413005 415003 420997 424990 435988
      438973
 0.50 372050 370050 370051 372050 372050
 1.00 430961 429947 430933 429925 427917 423905 418896 411887
      407884 402881 393876 389873 386868 383864 380864 378895
      379897 382896 385899 386908 385914 381926 378932 374936
      366942 358947 349942 344944 340947 327960 323964 319970
      315981 311992 313996 318998 323999 328997 332994 339992
      349989 357984 375970 391959 399950 403946 404940 405934
      408931 410933 413932 416931 417935 416939 415946 414953
      416960 424966 428964 430961
 1.50 413910 412908 412907 410907 410908 411910 412911 413910
 1.50 398933 398924 398918 397912 396906 392906 389911 387917
      385926 382933 379937 374940 364948 354953 347945 343947
      339950 330959 323967 319974 320979 323984 323987 325990
      328992 332991 338989 347982 357975 365967 375959 385954
      395947 398940 398933
 2.00 393940 394938 394936 394933 393932 391932 389933 389934
      388936 387936 386938 386939 385940 384942 384943 383945
      384946 386946 388946 389946 391945 391944 393943 393942
      393940
 2.00 377949 373947 368949 359954 350959 343967 337973 335978
      336984 339984 344980 351974 359968 366962 373954 377949

$$





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