Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 220659
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 22/1200 UTC THRU MAY 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH BASE IS
ENHANCING THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND BROAD SCALE UPPER DIVERGENCE
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS
A RESULT A NEWLY-FORMED WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) IS NOTED PER THE
SATELLITE TRENDS...WITH THE UPTICK IN WAA FORCING (STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH DEEPENING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT) ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. DEEP
LAYER INSTABILITY DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE MINIMAL (MUCAPES
GENERALLY 400-500 J/KG AT BEST)...HOWEVER WITH THE MODEST PW AND
850-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ANOMALIES (1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE NORM)...EXPECT MODERATE RAINFALL TOTALS...ESPECIALLY
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS RANGE BETWEEN .25 TO
.75 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

LATER IN THE PERIOD (00-12Z SAT)...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO THE 4
CORNERS REGION WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS (HEIGHTS RISE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS VLY). THE INCREASE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH 850 MB S/SW FLOW INCREASING TO
40-50 KTS WILL AGAIN BOOST THE S-N LOW-MID LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND MODEST DEEP LAYER INSTBY (MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG)
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION FROM A QPF
STANDPOINT HOWEVER IS HOW MUCH OF THE HEAVIER NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
LIFTING N-NE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL GET
INTERCEPTED BY THE BETTER THERMODYNAMICAL PROFILES (HIGHER INSTBY
AND PWS) FARTHER SOUTH -- AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH MADDOX
SYNOPTIC TYPE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS.


...SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

FOLLOWING THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW...THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE PERIOD OF TRANQUILITY DURING THE
DAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS
INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT.
THE MODELS SHOW MODEST BROAD-SCALE UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING
BETWEEN THE TROUGH-RIDGE AXES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND TX
PANHANDLE EASTWARD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN NORTH
TX/SOUTHERN OK...THOUGH SUSPECT THE ROBUST UVVS NOTED FROM SOME OF
THE NWP (GFS IN PARTICULAR) ARE INDICATIVE OF THE MODEL DEVELOPING
AN MCS. THE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE INDEED IMPRESSIVE
OVERNIGHT FRI INTO EARLY SAT...AS THE LOW LEVEL S/SSW INFLOW
INCREASES TO 40-50 KTS... MUCAPES CLIMB TO 1000-1500 J/KG...AND PW
ANOMALIES RISE TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE
WRF-ARW...WRF-NMMB...AND NSSL-WRF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A GENESIS REGION ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BETWEEN 00-06Z...WITH THE ACTIVITY AND
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NE/ENE THROUGH 12Z. WPC UTILIZED A
MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH THE QPF...THE BULK OF WHICH WAS BASED WITH
27KM ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY THE 00 NSSL-WRF OUTPUT.
AREAL-AVERAGE QPF BETWEEN .25 AND 1.00 INCH WAS NOTED OVER A BROAD
AREA...HOWEVER AS PER THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2-4+ INCHES WITHIN A 6 HOUR PERIOD WILL BE
POSSIBLE.


...CALIFORNIA/OREGON...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES...

A REGION OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL DRIFT EAST OUT OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN OREGON INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND THE CENTRAL CA SIERRA NEVADA RANGE WITH STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY AGAIN IN THIS ABOVE
AVERAGE PW AXIS WITH 700 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY MAXIMA OVER THE
SIERRA LEADING TO A RAINFALL MAXIMA IN THAT REGION. THIS COINCIDES
WITH A MAX REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE.  ELSEWHERE...MAXIMA IN THE
RANGES OF NORTHEAST OR/SOUTHERN ID/NORTHWEST WY/NORTHERN NV
COINCIDE WHERE ASCENT IS AUGMENTED BY UPSLOPE FLOW AS 700 MB
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD CIRCULATION DRIFTING
EAST OUT OF CA/OR AND ACROSS NV/ID.  LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS MOVE SLOWLY.  MANUAL QPF USED A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND.


...NEW ENGLAND...

THE UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS AVERAGING UPWARDS OF 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE ENSEMBLES. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL OCCUR OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
SURFACE LOW LIFT ACROSS THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED ALONG THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE...WITHIN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT N AND W OF THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
(AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS BETWEEN .10 AND .25 INCH).

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 516688 520647 513632 505631 503635 502638 499638 493628
      488627 483628 476633 471637 466640 459641 453639 449638
      440637 428641 423644 417647 399659 391666 386676 384681
      382687 383691 386694 391696 395700 400702 405701 412700
      418698 425692 434684 438681 441682 440684 436696 437703
      441704 447703 446710 446717 447726 450729 456730 459732
      464735 464743 465747 467749 476753 482753 486753 489750
      499748 508753 516756 518756 518753 517747 516738 514735
      511734 507733 506729 507725 510711 509707 512701 515691
      516688
 0.01 534875 534872 534870 534867 533864 532867 531869 531870
      533872 533875 534875
 0.01 518217 518209 518203 517200 514199 509197 506194 502189
      499185 496184 491193 485198 481199 475198 469197 467195
      467192 466179 472169 471158 470152 471147 473143 474136
      472125 477114 478108 477102 479097 477094 468090 462092
      459091 455082 453072 447065 437061 436056 439052 443043
      444035 443028 443019 446015 450007 451001 452995 450991
      447988 444984 441981 437978 433975 431974 430970 430964
      426954 420945 417942 413938 410940 410942 410949 412954
      413957 410959 408958 405956 403954 396949 393938 387931
      382921 378910 375907 371910 367914 363917 358923 355927
      354932 349939 341945 334951 326955 313956 310955 308954
      307947 306937 305924 301875 300871 298866 293859 291854
      288852 284854 283858 282863 282869 278880 278886 278893
      280903 278913 271913 279933 283940 285944 283949 275954
      272956 268954 266950 265945 255945 252949 250953 248958
      245960 242958 238958 234958 232959 232975 233975 235976
      237976 239977 239978 241980 240982 240984 240986 240988
      240989 240991 238993 237993 235991 233991 231991 228026
247027 258035 261042 262050 263056 264060
      266062 270062 275059 279052 284047 286043 289047 289052
      290054 295056 301053 307048 338056 346055 354058 362060
      362066 360069 363076 367083 371089 376090 378093 379096
      377100 375103 376105 379104 381106 378109 375109 370110
      366108 360109 348116 345118 344123 344129 345132 348139
      349142 351144 352149 350154 348156 349159 352166 356173
      354176 350176 346175 344172 344167 341165 336164 333162
      324161 317162 312163 310164 308167 308171 313175 316181
      318189 319199 320206 324214 328218 331216 331211 327197
      325190 325184 328181 335181 341187 344193 351198 361200
      371201 382209 389213 393215 391219 388229 392234 394236
      399238 403239 419240 424238 427235 438234
 0.01 438234 445233 455234 464235 469236 473239 477242 481243
      486246 487249 490250 492253 493257 496260 500261 504250
      509254 509251 513239 515232 516224 518217
 0.01 526910 527902 526896 522886 518876 517871 515866 505851
      501841 498837 494837 484838 481839 478842 474853 473857
      473865 478873 483880 488887 495892 503909 510916 517919
      521919 523916 526910
 0.01 518787 517777 513772 508768 502766 497763 492761 487760
      482764 479767 478771 478777 480782 483783 484793 486802
      490808 494813 500816 504815 509815 515813 517811 517808
      515803 515797 517788 518787
 0.01 506962 505962 504960 504957 503954 502954 501952 501951
      499951 499952 497954 497957 497960 497962 497965 499965
      501966 502965 504965 505962 506962
 0.01 486228 485226 484225 484224 483223 481222 479222 478221
      476221 475222 476224 477224 479224 481225 482226 482227
      483228 485229 486228
 0.01 443747 443745 442742 441742 439742 437743 436746 435746
      434749 434751 435754 437756 439758 441757 442755 442754
      442752 442750 443747 443747
 0.01 417769 417766 417764 416762 415760 414760 413760 413763
      413765 413767 414769 414770 416771 417769 417769
 0.01 409798 409789 408785 406782 404778 401769 397756 393754
      393762 395780 394787 391792 388799 388806 390824 394826
      397821 400817 403816 405813 408801 409798
 0.01 379146 379143 377141 373140 372141 368142 366143 363143
      361145 362149 363151 365150 367149 369149 372151 374153
      376152 378148 379146
 0.01 387043 387038 386034 384029 382027 380028 379031 375035
      373041 372049 370052 368053 365056 361058 364061 370059
      375055 379053 383049 387043
 0.01 333758 333756 333754 331754 331755 329757 328759 328762
      330762 332761 333759 333758
 0.01 320774 320768 318767 313770 308776 305779 303781 299787
      297794 295798 294801 299800 304793 307788 312782 317776
      320774
 0.01 297773 296769 293766 285766 279771 276774 277778 274783
      272781 269785 271787 267790 266794 262796 254799 248804
      248808 249814 253819 259824 263829 274829 278828 282826
      285824 287821 289818 288812 289808 289802 288793 290785
      292782 293778 297773
 0.01 254781 253779 251777 249776 245776 242777 240778 239781
      238783 240785 242787 245787 248787 251786 252783 254781
 0.01 231812 231810 231808 231806 231804 230804 229803 228801
      228800 228801 227803 228805 230806 230808 230810 231812
      231812
 0.25 512231 512228 513226 513224 512223 511221 510222 509223
      508224 507224 506225 504225 503225 503228 504228 505228
      507228 509230 510231 512232 512231
 0.25 503671 500670 500666 498657 494650 490646 486648 483654
      480659 473660 468664 464668 460674 461678 464680 469679
      475677 479676 482676 484679 492687 496689 500685 502679
      503671
 0.25 461180 462176 462170 462163 460154 458152 455152 451156
      449158 448162 446173 444180 440184 435184 429182 427175
      424175 422173 417168 421165 422162 422157 422148 421142
      420136 422133 426127 430123 436119 442107 444101 447096
      446092 444090 440086 436080 431076 427072 424067 423065
      419062 419059 420055 419042 425029 426019 425010 422998
      418992 414987 402987 398988 395981 389970 386965 382960
      378953 376951 377948 377940 372937 366938 363938 361941
      361949 359953 357955 345960 341963 337967 325991 321995
      314997 311004 312008 321011 325015 326021 326029 328036
      329040 329044 330048 332050 338049 343046 355040 359033
      361028 360021 357016 354011 354006 356003 360000 366998
      379996 391993 394993 397995 399002 396021 395030 397038
      399044 401052 399067 399071 401074 406079 412081 415087
      415093 413096 408097 404102 403106 402111 405112 407111
      411112 412115 416120 419126 419135 417141 413146 407146
      400144 395147 393148 391151 382159 371181 368182 367186
      371191 375193 381192 392192 397189 401185 401181 403177
      407171 409170 411173 414179 416186 421190 414200 412202
      412206 413214 416218 421218 426220 431220 436216 436208
      437205 441206 448209 451208 453206 454196 458186 461180
 0.25 444654 445649 443648 437649 426652 416656 407661 399667
      395672 395678 403682 407683 413682 423676 432670 439662
      444654
 0.25 441168 440166 439165 438165 436164 435165 435167 436168
      437170 438170 439170 441168
 0.25 414227 414225 412224 411224 409225 408225 407227 408229
      408230 410231 411231 412231 413229 414228 414227
 0.25 388120 388116 385116 379118 375121 372122 368121 363122
      357124 356127 355131 360135 363136 367136 372134 378133
      382129 386126 388120
 0.25 299027 300018 300015 296013 294011 290011 282010 276013
      269015 262016 258016 255009 254002 248999 245000 244004
      245012 249017 251019 255020 258025 264029 270030 286032
      293034 296034 298031 299027
 0.25 286976 286974 285972 285971 283971 281970 279970 277971
      276972 275974 274976 275977 276978 275979 274980 275982
      275983 277983 278983 279982 281981 282981 283980 284979
      284978 286976
 0.25 277817 277811 276807 272803 269804 265805 261805 258806
      256807 255810 258813 261815 264819 268820 272821 275819
      277817
 0.50 498664 498662 497660 495659 494658 493658 492658 490658
      488659 488660 487662 487663 486666 487668 488669 490669
      492669 493669 495669 496670 497670 497668 498666 498664
 0.50 458177 459175 459172 458170 457167 455165 454167 453167
      452169 451169 451171 450173 450175 450178 450180 451180
      451183 452183 453183 455181 457179 457178 458177
 0.50 449204 450202 449202 447201 447202 449204 449204
 0.50 433657 427657 420659 414662 409665 403668 401672 405675
      409676 412675 419672 424669 429665 433660 433657
 0.50 441096 438091 433085 428087 424089 424091 425097 427101
      425104 423106 422110 423112 426114 430111 430106 432102
      436097 441096
 0.50 416024 417017 417010 415007 410006 406007 404012 403019
      402023 401030 403034 407037 411035 413031 415026 416024
 0.50 382974 378969 373965 366961 362961 357962 354963 350965
      345969 340973 336980 332986 330993 327001 328004 331007
      336011 342008 346002 349995 355991 361987 366983 369981
      373980 381979 382974
 0.50 350029 351024 351020 347016 342015 338017 334023 334027
      333036 333043 333045 336045 340043 345039 348035 350029
 0.50 296019 294015 289016 285017 281019 276019 270019 267020
      266024 270025 276026 281027 286028 292027 294023 296019
      296019

$$





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