Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 270700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 27/1200 UTC THRU OCT 28/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE PAC NW EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND POSITIVE PWAT ADVECTION DURING THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH (WHICH HAD INCORPORATED REMNANTS
OF TC ANA). BY THE END OF THE PERIOD (12Z 10/28)...THIS RELATIVELY
COMPACT SHORTWAVE AND BULK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE PIVOTING
TOWARD THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. HOWEVER...WITH MODEST UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PAC NW...ALONG WITH THE
DEEPENING SW/WSW FLOW (850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES 2-2.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) AND PWATS CLIMBING TO .75 TO
1.00 INCH...WIDESPREAD LIGHT-MODERATE PCPN WILL OVERSPREAD WRN
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
THE ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP MOIST INFLOW (PWAT AXIS) ALONG WITH
UPPER LEVEL FORCING (MORE FAVORABLE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NW
WASHINGTON AND ESPECIALLY INTO BC)...HIGHEST AMOUNTS (AVERAGING
.50 TO 1.25 INCHES) WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WA COASTAL RANGES
(INCLUDING OLYMPICS) AND NORTHERN WA CASCADES...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS (MORE 0.25-0.50 INCH AMOUNTS) INTO NORTHWEST OR. WPC
UTILIZED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH THE QPF...INCORPORATING MORE OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (ECMWF...RGEM...NAM CONEST...AND
WRF-ARW) GIVEN THE TERRAIN. PER THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS.


...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES...

THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH TIME
AS IT PIVOTS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. DESPITE THE DYNAMICAL FORCING BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY INTO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING
INITIALLY AND AS SUCH PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
AVERAGE LESS THAN .25 INCH. LATER IN THE PERIOD...AS MOISTURE FROM
THE WRN GULF GETS PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM...THE
DEVELOPING/DEEPENING TROWAL ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL TAP PWATS OF 1.00-1.25 INCHES OR CLOSER TO 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BECOME MORE ROBUST WITH TIME AS THE DYNAMIC
TROPOPAUSE (POSITIVE IPV ANOMALY) HELPS TO FURTHER THE CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS ALONG WITH THE DESTABILIZATION ALOFT (BEST
LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -2 AND -4C ALONG WITH NEGATIVE 700-500 MB
THETA-E LAPSE RATES) WILL HELP TO FOCUS HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION (AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS GENERALLY BETWEEN .25 AND .75
INCH)...THOUGH THE PROGRESSION OF THE MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICAL AND
THERMODYNAMICAL FORCING WILL TEND TO LIMIT HIGHER AMOUNTS.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 533225 533218 533214 531204 531199 529195 525187 515177
      510172 508173 506171 503168 499167 494170 487170 488172
      492173 494172 498175 504174 506177 507182 507189 508191
      511194 515196 519202 521211 523221 525229 527231 530230
      533225
 0.01 549938 545913 545908 542904 537898 533897 530899 528903
      526908 524914 521908 517900 506885 498872 496868 496861
      495852 495849 496845 499835 500827 500812 499798 496785
      494776 489752 478735 468728 461711 463708 469706 470700
      467693 462684 458683 456687 456694 456698 453702 451701
      450701 450704 448706 448709 444710 442711 440716 441719
      442720 443724 442728 441730 445730 448730 450732 450738
      449743 450750 447754 440759 436760 433763 429764 426767
      428792 429806 427817 421833 419838 416842 410846 404850
      398856 385870 379878 376885 367898 358912 350927 342942
      338950 336958 335963 333968 337977 339980 343983 342987
      340991 339998 342001 347000 351997 357992 362987 366981
      371972 375965 378958 386943 389934 391931 395929 403933
      406935 407942 407945 409945 413943 418936 425929 430923
      440911 448899 451894 454892 455896 453903 453908 454912
      456917 455921 457925 457929 453936 450940 446944 440949
      434956 430961 424973 426975 426980 416993 411998 407007
      407017 413020 419016 426011 431006 436000 445986 450975
      453965 461960 466960 470962 469967 469973 467977 467983
      463000 461003 461010 464021 467028 468031 466032 463034
      458040 458045 459050 459059 461063 462076 466079 468084
      466089 465094 467098 468103 466109 467112 472112 478107
      483101 486098 490097 494099 499101 505097 510090 518088
      521086 523081 524076 528077 532075 534069 534061 533055
      533038 533032 532028 527021 526018 524014 525011 534992
      541974 544966 547955 548952 547945 549938
 0.01 509294 520279 522272 523265 522255 519246 516240 514232
      505219 504216 503211 504205 503202 502198 500195 496194
      493191 492188 491191 489195 486196 477203 473203 467208
      462208 457212 451215 442218 439220 439224 446228 445232
      442233 437237 436241 438245 438251 436254 431260 429265
      428270 429273 435278 444280 449280 476280 483282 489287
      495293 499295 505296 509294
 0.01 493143 490135 485128 477126 468124 464124 469131 469136
      466137 463135 462131 459132 457130 455132 455137 454141
      451144 449148 448153 449157 452160 456158 464157 467156
      470158 475164 477161 477156 473148 473143 475141 483140
      490143 493143
 0.01 463178 461178 457177 455174 455171 453169 451168 450170
      451173 451176 452178 455181 455184 457184 459182 461180
      463178
 0.01 456113 456107 455103 451097 434094 429089 428087 426089
      430103 423105 419109 418115 415116 412115 408112 406116
      409122 422117 425120 426117 433114 438111 443112 445114
      453115 456113
 0.01 454081 453077 450074 446072 443070 440069 436071 434073
      438071 442074 445077 448080 451084 454081 454081
 0.01 437059 437052 434045 431040 427039 427044 429046 430054
      425058 423060 426067 428068 429066 431064 435064 437059
 0.01 412071 412068 408066 405067 401067 401069 399071 399076
      401077 403075 403072 405068 408068 410071 412071
 0.01 409061 408057 408051 404046 400045 398041 394036 383040
      380037 379033 375026 373026 373030 370033 366033 363035
      363041 369044 379054 388056 392056 391060 384061 385065
      387067 389070 392071 396066 399063 401060 405059 407061
      409061
 0.25 519274 520266 518259 514248 509235 504226 501220 498215
      488210 482208 476209 472211 468214 467221 463227 460230
      455232 451235 449236 448240 449248 447253 443259 441265
      445268 450269 454271 459272 470271 480271 486272 492276
      498286 502290 506290 511287 514283 518277 519274
 0.25 504929 503922 500918 496914 492912 488910 482909 477912
      474917 473924 474927 471932 467935 464941 466944 475947
      478946 482943 492940 498940 502937 504929
 0.25 487823 486804 485786 482781 477778 474778 470781 466781
      462785 459798 457804 455810 450821 446833 442845 441853
      444859 447872 450874 456874 460877 461883 463901 466897
      469893 476883 481872 484859 485852 485844 486832 487823
 0.25 443966 442965 440966 439969 440970 442969 443966 443966
 0.25 413866 412861 408860 401864 396868 391874 383886 375898
      372905 370914 369923 373928 376926 378922 381916 385909
      389903 397891 406879 409873 413866
 0.25 359932 360930 360927 359926 357926 356927 355928 354930
      354932 353934 352936 352938 351938 351941 351943 352943
      354944 355943 355942 356941 357938 358936 359934 359932
      359932
 0.50 518273 518267 516261 512250 508241 503232 499222 496218
      492216 487213 482214 480217 481221 482226 477228 474230
      467235 462236 460237 459241 454251 452255 451259 454264
      459267 464268 468267 476266 481266 487269 493276 500284
      503287 507288 514280 518273
 0.50 479855 478843 476837 472836 470834 469823 468819 466816
      463819 455831 453839 452848 452859 453864 454864 458858
      462856 464859 465865 465876 466885 469885 471883 474876
      476870 479855
 1.00 510281 509273 505266 504258 503254 501251 495247 492242
      488240 485240 483243 481241 478235 475234 473236 472242
      470245 465249 461253 460256 464258 468260 475261 481262
      487265 496275 500281 504283 507284 510281
 1.00 508253 507252 506250 506253 507254 508253
 1.50 506276 504268 500261 496254 492248 488244 482250 480253
      481257 487263 493269 497274 503279 506276
 2.00 503275 503269 500264 498260 496257 494253 491249 487249
      484253 484259 487262 492266 494269 497273 500275 503275
 3.00 501272 501269 500266 498263 496260 494258 493256 491255
      489257 490260 492262 494264 496268 498270 499271 501272

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