Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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963
FXUS04 KWBC 101832
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
132 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 11/0000 UTC THRU FEB 12/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S....

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL
GRADUALLY BE PULLED EASTWARD BY A SERIES OF JET LEVEL SPEED
MAXIMA.  GENERALLY LIGHT PCPN WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE BROAD
AREA ENCOMPASSED BY THE TROUGH.  SOME OF THOSE AREAS WILL BE TIED
TO WEAK...NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME...SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE FAST FLOW.  IN OTHER PLACES THE PCPN WILL BE FORCED BY AN
AIRMASS WITH HIGH RH BEING FORCED UPSLOPE IN PLACES LIKE THE WEST
FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

IN ADDITION..H85 TEMPS FALL INTO THE MINUS 18 TO MINUS 24 DEG C
RANGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS EXTENDING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKES MI AND
HURON...ALONG WITH LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION OF LAKE ENHANCED PCPN DOWNWIND. GIVEN
THE MESOSCALE AND GEOGRAPHIC FORCING INVOLVED...WE TENDED TO PUT
MORE EMPHASIS ON THE FINER SCALE ECMWF/GFS AND ON THE HI RES CAM
GUIDANCE.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

DEEP...AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN DURING DAY 1. MEANWHILE... THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD (00Z
FRI)...AND WHILE THE BULK OF THE UPPER FORCING AND SURFACE FRONT
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND EXPANSION OF DEEP-LAYER WAA WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT AND PW PLUME REACHING THE PAC NW WILL MAKE FOR AN UPTICK IN
OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED PCPN LATE (I.E. THU AFTN). THE MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH THE DEPICTION OF AN ANOMALOUS PW PLUME... AROUND
1.0"...ORIENTED SSW-NNE ALONG THE WA AND OR COAST...WHICH IS
AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. SIMILARLY...THE
MODELS ALL SHOW THE MORE FAVORABLE 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX ALONG
THE PAC NW...WITH THE HIGHEST ANOMALIES (ALSO ~2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) ACROSS THE WA AND NORTHERN OR COASTAL
RANGES. MEANWHILE...THE SSW LOW-LEVEL COMPONENT STRENGTHENS TO 30+
KTS THU AFTN ALONG THE COAST. IN TERMS OF QPF...THE MODELS SHOWS
LIMITED SPREAD WITH THE AMOUNTS...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE MORE MODERATE PCPN.
THEREFORE...COMPARED TO CONTINUITY (PREVIOUS FORECAST)...WPC IS
LIGHTER BY 0.25-0.50 INCH OVER THE OLYMPICS THROUGH 00Z FRI. USING
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...WHICH INCLUDES THE HIGH-RES CAM
GUIDANCE...WPC NOTED 5 KM AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50-1.0+
INCH OVER THE OLYMPIC RANGE...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS (0.25" OR LESS)
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WA AND NORTHERN OR COASTAL RANGES AND WA
CASCADES.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 12/00Z
 0.01 549115 550106 549097 547091 544086 539081 533077 527075
      525073 522072 519067 515062 512057 510050 502036 494027
      488017 482007 475996 470991 465984 451967 442959 437956
      431952 422947 414947 412951 416966 419975 421978 421982
      426992 432002 447025 453035 458039 461044 465050 469055
      476067 490086 506107 508113 504111 503115 504118 508123
      514129 518134 521140 524147 525153 528159 531165 536168
      541163 543152 544143 545130 545125 547121 549115
 0.01 535212 537205 536200 534194 532189 529181 527176 524171
      519165 512159 506153 502152 498149 495145 492146 491150
      494153 500157 502155 505156 508159 511164 507165 502164
      499164 499167 506185 518198 521209 522213 525217 528218
      532217 535212
 0.01 520271 522263 522253 517243 515235 512228 505217 499208
      497200 495196 490191 485188 482188 479190 476194 472198
      469203 466208 460206 457210 455211 452212 449209 447207
      449202 452196 456184 461181 461175 459177 456176 452171
      449169 448170 449173 453177 452180 448180 443181 441185
      439187 438192 439199 440204 439209 435213 430214 427218
      422221 423224 427227 427231 428234 425236 420235 416236
      415239 418242 424244 429247 425251 413272 406281 405286
      407292 412298 418301 432306 457315 462315 469317 475318
      481317 488311 492308 497307 506300 510294 513288 516280
      520271
 0.01 476692 474687 472685 464681 460678 460674 462668 463663
      462656 463652 465650 464643 461637 455631 450632 445636
      440645 435647 431650 425652 422655 411659 406660 401664
      395665 389666 383666 375667 369669 364669 359675 353682
      346689 346701 342713 341720 341726 329742 318756 315759
      313764 315769 318772 330768 339762 349758 358752 367754
      371756 374755 378753 381748 383744 384740 387735 391735
      394740 399740 408733 411730 414727 416731 421739 416749
      410756 415762 414773 410778 406780 396786 387792 381797
      375805 361816 358821 357823 357827 361827 365823 370820
      377819 383818 386815 389811 392809 400812 410831 412833
      415833 416827 416818 416816 420814 425817 427822 430824
      435825 441830 449834 454833 456828 460818 471812 476810
      478808 481807 483795 483788 481784 459750 458742 458737
      459734 463725 464720 464716 464712 466710 475707 476704
      474700 476692
 0.01 485882 484866 482859 482852 476844 473840 470840 466839
      462839 460843 447845 444848 439848 437854 436856 433858
      424855 419853 415849 410846 409852 411854 411859 415869
      419870 426871 437869 443868 448866 454865 457868 462881
      463894 467900 470898 477892 480889 483884 485882
 0.01 437712 437708 434706 433705 429707 428707 424710 423711
      421713 423715 427714 429716 431716 434718 436718 437714
      437712
 0.01 442781 441779 440777 440774 439773 438775 437777 437780
      436782 436785 436787 435790 437792 439794 440791 440789
      441786 441784 441783 442781
 0.01 438801 438799 437798 436797 434797 432795 430793 429795
      428796 428798 429800 429802 431803 433804 434804 436803
      438803 438801
 0.01 399910 396897 392890 388885 384879 381875 375871 371866
      366864 363863 360865 359870 363876 369887 372892 376898
      385909 389913 394917 398917 399910
 0.01 357834 358832 357830 356830 356832 356835 357835 357834
 0.25 527196 527191 526185 525179 523176 521173 521176 521180
      522184 521181 518178 516177 516182 519188 521191 524195
      527196 527196
 0.25 514256 514251 512244 508236 502228 498220 496216 490215
      488212 484214 486221 489220 492225 495234 499242 504252
      510258 514256
 0.25 507279 507272 506266 503262 500256 497250 494246 491241
      486237 483240 480236 478230 473229 465236 456239 452242
      448246 445249 440251 437256 436260 438262 437267 434274
      434280 434286 437292 442296 447299 451300 458300 463301
      468301 472299 477297 480292 484289 489291 495292 500290
      504285 507279
 0.25 450667 451663 449660 445660 442662 439666 436671 434674
      432677 435681 439678 442675 446676 448672 450667 450667
 0.25 466863 465861 464862 463864 464864 465864 466863
 0.25 450855 448853 447853 446853 445853 446855 447855 448856
      450855 450855
 0.25 434763 435761 434760 432759 430757 428759 428760 428762
      428764 428767 429769 429771 430773 430774 432776 433774
      434773 434771 434768 434766 434763 434763
 0.25 438818 438815 437815 435814 433812 432812 431811 430811
      429812 430814 430815 431816 432817 434818 435819 437818
      438818
 0.25 422796 422794 421794 419794 419797 420799 422797 422796
 0.25 384680 383676 378673 374673 369677 364685 362690 361697
      359707 356719 359723 362724 365723 371721 376719 379714
      381709 383705 383697 384685 384680
 0.50 498268 496258 492249 490245 486243 484246 480249 479244
      479238 477233 474232 471235 470243 471248 475251 478253
      481258 485266 492273 496272 498268
 0.50 472272 472271 471269 471267 470266 469265 467266 466267
      465267 464269 464272 465272 466274 468275 470274 472272
      472272
 0.50 380686 379681 377678 375678 373681 369688 368696 366703
      362711 361714 364717 370716 375710 378703 379693 380686

$$





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