Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 250656
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
155 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 25/1200 UTC THRU NOV 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

MOIST WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DAY 1.  PW VALUES IN
THIS ONSHORE FLOW AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE--- 1 TO 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---THROUGH
THE PERIOD SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
FROM THE WA CASCADES---COAST AND OLYMPIC RANGE AND INLAND ACROSS
NORTHERN ID INTO NORTHWEST MT AND FAR NORTHWEST WY.
OVERALL--MODEL QPF DISTRIBUTIONS ARE SIMILAR---WITH THE NAM AND IN
HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN USED FOR QPF DETAILS.
WITH THE VERY HEAVY TOTALS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WA CASCADES AND
HIGH SNOW LEVELS---RUNOFF ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE HERE.


NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/LOWER MO VALLEY REGION

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TOWARD THE LOWER
MO VALLEY REGION TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED.  PW VALUES WILL BE MODEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM---SUPPORTING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION TOTALS.

CENTRAL TO NORTHERN FLORIDA---SOUTHEAST---SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC

HEIGHT FALLS MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL HELP SPAWN A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO---ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  STRONG
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE
AND OVERALL FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS  DAY 1 IN THE AXIS
OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA--NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COASTS.  THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF TRAINING OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA---POSSIBLY
PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES.  THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER
WITH MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WAS
NOT USED HERE.  FOR QPF DETAILS--THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED MEAN WAS USED PRIMARILY--ALONG WITH THE HI RES ARW/NMMB
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.  ACCUMULATING SNOWS POSSIBLE ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  SEE THE QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER
DETAILS.

GREAT LAKES

UPPER TROFFING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
EARLY DAY 1---LEADING TO A LESSENING OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH
TIME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY DIMINISH TUESDAY IN THE LEE OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND
MICHIGAN.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 532216 533206 532200 528191 526182 521171 519164 517161
      511152 499136 495130 491122 483107 476092 470085 467083
      467079 470078 477073 485068 493068 494073 494081 493098
      494103 497103 498101 505096 509092 511092 514095 523108
      533122 536123 538121 538109 536096 536092 534088 532080
      531076 529070 527065 524062 522058 518048 514040 511028
      511022 508015 504002 500995 496989 491984 489976 487972
      484968 488958 491947 491932 489924 487921 484917 480914
      475919 472922 469926 465932 460933 455932 445929 440928
      434927 419921 411918 403917 395917 389920 386924 386927
      389936 393946 401951 408955 406967 407973 410977 414980
      419980 422980 424983 425985 422986 415991 413994 413000
      413006 414011 416020 419022 423020 428018 432016 435019
      439021 441022 442025 441029 439031 436033 436043 435054
      424052 417047 414045 411047 412053 412057 409056 401053
      393057 384071 380071 377076 377080 379078 381076 386075
      391081 396082 399081 403080 406082 407084 409083 412080
      415077 418073 419070 421069 427071 430073 433077 435083
      436085 436090 433090 429087 427084 425084 423086 424094
      427100 421103 418106 418108 416110 413106 411099 407096
      406098 404103 401106 395109 387113 385117 389118 398119
      404123 409125 413125 415128 415136 417140 420144 423144
      425140 426136 432124 436119 440119 440126 439131 438136
      435138 434142 433150 431154 431160 433163 435167 439169
      442173 443178 440185 440188 443189 447191 450195 454197
      457192 459189 461188 464190 468193 469199 468205 465207
      459206 455211 447213 441215 437220 438225 443227 450227
      456228 455231 447232 440234 438239 438244 442247 448249
      453250 456249 463248 469250 473253 476255 478259 484267
      487272 490276 494280 498285 503288 505290 508287 512282
      516274 518270 520263 523254 528232 532216
 0.01 479872 479861 477852 473840 467824 461812 459805 457801
      454800 451796 449794 446795 436803 433809 434814 435819
      437822 442822 444820 448822 446829 443836 439842 435846
      430845 424848 420853 418859 419867 421870 424870 432869
      445868 452869 458872 462877 464883 464889 463893 463903
      467902 470897 474891 476884 479872
 0.01 448758 448753 446749 446744 445741 443739 439742 436748
      435754 433768 427781 423785 421789 420797 422797 423801
      424803 426802 429798 435787 438781 440775 444769 445764
      448758
 0.01 417707 415694 413690 411688 403685 394686 387689 382692
      373704 320739 299762 281783 276788 269793 262798 257803
      252808 249812 244817 240823 235830 232836 228843 225852
      226857 224863 224873 225880 228890 232896 236904 242908
      244910 248910 256910 265909 272906 279902 284896 289889
      291887 294887 300889 307888 320881 332870 344858 352846
      361838 373827 384814 392801 395796 398789 402771 405760
      407752 410736 412728 415720 417707
 0.25 518257 520250 521244 520233 519224 516214 512202 509185
      506176 502170 497163 490159 489152 488144 486135 483129
      477124 475116 475103 473099 471096 467095 462097 459098
      456096 450091 436095 428091 429096 430100 427103 422106
      421111 420114 413114 412116 414119 418120 420122 422125
      422131 424131 427127 433117 438114 442115 445118 448120
      452121 453124 452127 449130 449137 447142 444144 438143
      436149 435154 435158 437161 442163 447165 448167 450176
      451178 448180 446184 448187 453189 458186 464184 466183
      470185 477188 479192 477197 473204 468209 463210 459213
      453215 450216 449218 450222 455223 461227 461232 457234
      452235 450239 452241 458242 465244 474248 480253 484259
      490265 494272 498278 502281 505281 508279 511273 518257
 0.25 482183 482181 482178 481177 481178 480179 479180 479181
      480183 481184 482183
 0.25 474997 474995 473994 472992 472991 470991 469990 467990
      466991 465992 465994 465996 467999 468000 470000 472000
      473999 473998 474997
 0.25 454083 454078 451074 449070 446068 442067 438069 438073
      441076 444079 447082 449085 452087 453085 454083
 0.25 415069 417065 417062 412061 409062 405060 401060 398063
      396066 394073 397078 402076 406076 411076 415073 415069
 0.25 409112 409110 409108 409105 408103 408102 407103 406105
      406107 405109 405112 406114 408113 409112
 0.25 390762 390752 388743 387735 384727 380723 376722 364727
      357730 351733 341740 326755 292786 274801 259815 251824
      244833 241838 239843 238848 240855 244859 249861 255863
      258869 258876 258882 256889 259895 265896 270895 280887
      288881 296874 312857 327843 337836 343836 349835 357828
      364820 372811 375805 378799 382789 386777 390762
 0.50 513261 515256 516251 515242 512229 508216 503205 502199
      502190 500183 496180 488188 485194 482198 478203 474205
      467211 457216 453217 455222 461225 465226 470225 475227
      471231 468238 471243 474245 481249 484253 490262 497273
      501276 505273 513261
 0.50 490234 489231 487228 485226 484225 482224 481224 479224
      476225 478227 480230 481233 482236 486235 488235 490234
 0.50 482160 478146 480140 480135 476129 471125 466120 469115
      470112 470107 468104 464103 458103 453098 447096 441096
      435097 432097 431102 429105 425105 424108 427113 429114
      433114 438112 444114 449117 453115 456114 459115 459121
      458124 452134 451142 447148 444149 441148 439149 439153
      442159 449163 452167 453175 453179 452185 457185 459184
      463181 467177 476169 480164 482160
 0.50 413073 413068 412066 409065 405064 403065 401067 399070
      397072 397075 400074 403072 406074 410074 413073
 0.50 378750 378742 376735 372731 367731 351740 342746 333754
      321765 313773 305779 291790 276803 264815 256822 250830
      245838 245843 247848 250851 254854 259856 263859 267866
      268878 272882 278883 284881 288877 299865 306858 314851
      326838 333831 343826 347823 350820 353813 365794 368784
      370775 372767 376761 378750
 1.00 500266 499261 497257 495252 493248 491244 489240 485240
      484246 487251 489255 491258 494263 496267 500269 500266
 1.00 502236 501226 501220 499212 497205 493200 490199 488200
      483203 478205 470212 461218 456219 458222 464224 468222
      473221 479221 485222 489224 496234 500237 502236
 1.00 481242 481239 480238 480236 479233 478232 476231 474232
      473234 472236 472239 473240 475242 476242 476243 477243
      478243 480243 481242
 1.00 473161 474156 472152 469145 463140 465138 468139 471138
      471136 469134 464133 461133 458135 457140 454148 452153
      452159 454162 456161 461161 464162 471163 473161
 1.00 461180 461178 461177 460178 459178 457179 457181 459181
      461181 461180
 1.00 448111 448109 447108 446109 446111 447112 448111
 1.00 445106 444106 442105 441103 440103 439104 437104 436105
      437107 439106 440106 442106 444107 445106
 1.00 369750 368744 364741 354746 340756 325769 312781 305787
      295792 287797 281802 267815 261821 256827 253836 255842
      258845 265847 267851 272852 281847 289841 292837 296836
      297838 296843 286860 286864 290866 295864 298861 311847
      316840 321834 326825 330820 334818 337810 342803 348794
      355786 359778 362771 367759 369750
 1.50 495220 495215 494210 491206 487205 483206 480207 476209
      473211 470215 471218 476219 481219 486221 491222 493222
      495220 495220
 1.50 479238 479237 478236 478234 476233 474234 474237 475240
      477241 478241 478240 479238
 1.50 469155 469152 468150 468148 467147 466146 464145 463145
      461145 460146 459147 458148 458150 457152 457155 458157
      458158 460157 461157 463157 465158 467157 468156 469155
 1.50 364755 363751 361749 355750 353752 343760 321778 308788
      303792 297794 289798 283802 274812 263821 259827 258834
      259837 262840 266841 268843 271849 274849 277846 282841
      288836 298828 308816 315807 320801 326800 329801 334798
      339794 349782 357771 361762 364755
 1.50 314837 314832 311831 309833 308835 306838 305841 303843
      301846 301848 301853 302853 304850 306848 308846 309843
      311841 312839 314837
 2.00 489216 489213 487210 484209 483209 479209 477210 475212
      474217 476217 478217 482217 485217 487218 489216
 2.00 477238 477237 476235 475237 477238 477238
 2.00 463151 462149 460150 460151 462152 463151
 2.00 359756 358753 354754 348758 340765 321781 317786 313792
      308795 303796 294798 288801 280807 271816 263824 262828
      263832 269835 272840 277838 289831 298825 306814 312805
      315799 319794 331790 342782 346778 350774 356764 359756
 3.00 303808 302803 298802 292803 285807 280811 274816 270820
      271824 273826 276829 279828 285823 290820 296815 301810
      303808
 4.00 293809 291809 287809 286810 283813 281815 279816 277818
      277820 279819 283818 286817 288815 290814 291812 293809

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