Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 250700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 25/1200 UTC THRU MAY 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTH TOWARD
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE BROAD TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DIVING ESE TOWARD THE TX
BIG BEND. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WAVE...LOW-MID LEVEL
WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN WEST TEXAS AND INCREASES
HEADING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN TERMS OF WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL FALL. THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX NORTHEAST TOWARD THE THE MO/AR BORDER. MUCH OF
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS SOUTH...IN LIGHT OF THE INCREASING LLJ
OVERNIGHT AND (THUS) MORE UPWIND PROPAGATION S-SW TOWARD THE GULF
COAST AND MAX INSTABILITY AXIS...INSTEAD OF NE TODAY WITH THE MEAN
850-300 MB FLOW AND FORWARD PROPAGATION VECTORS.

...GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

THE MODELS SHOW THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DRIFT EAST OUT OF WY
ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE DEPARTURE OF THE CIRCULATIONS LEADS
TO A DECLINE IN PRECIP INTENSITY IN UT/WY/ID AS DRYING ALOFT
DEVELOPS. ONE MAXIMA EXTENDS ALONG THE 700 MB FRONT NEAR THE SD/ND
BORDER.  THE FRONT WEAKENS ON MONDAY AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES EAST
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER LAKES.  FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
UPPER LAKES...RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION AS 850-700 BM THETA-E
ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT.  AS
THE WARM FRONT SPREADS NORTHEAST THE QPF MOVES IN TANDEM ACROSS
THE LAKES INTO CANADA. A CONSENSUS APPROACH WAS USED.

OTHER SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN THIS EVENING IN THIS ABOVE
AVERAGE PW AXIS WITH 700 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND THE BROAD CIRCULATION LEADING TO A RAINFALL MAXIMA IN
EASTERN CO AND ADJACENT NE/KS. THIS COINCIDES WITH A MAX REGION OF
UPPER DIFFLUENCE.

PETERSEN/TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 568022 564027 561027 558023 556023 555019 551009 550000
      550995 551990 554983 555976 554968 553958 553944 552938
      552934 552928 553922 554912 554898 553894 552888 552873
      551846 549819 551797 552794 552788
 0.01 540203 538192 536183 533172 530164 525155 518148 505138
      498133 491127 479114 476110 476103 476091 473085 469081
      468077 472072 476065 480057 480041 478033 480027 480020
      480003 477982 501886 505865 510844 513822 515807 516796
      518780 519768 518753 519745 518738 517731 516726 513709
      506677 503668 498664 494660 492656 488647 486642 482639
      478638 475638 466638 458639 447642 436646 433649 431650
      431654 430665 430679 431689 433698 435702 436710 432718
      433723 436726 437733 436736 432744 428754 425762 424765
      424769 423773 420780 419785 415790 412793 407794 400800
      386813 375812 371815 369818 367818 361812 355812 351813
      348813 345811 338808 330804 327803 323803 320804 316802
      312802 308800 305799 302801 299805 298810 299814 300817
      298817 291813 287811 284808 279800 273792 270789 268788
      265790 265792 263797 259800 253799 250800 247804 244810
      240812 238809 233803 229796 226793 223793 220797 220803
      220814 221821 223826 224832 225840 228845 233844 241848
      246849 248849 249846 250841 253838 262838 268843 268906
      270917 272922 271924 268924 264932 262936 264940 265954
      265961 264965 262970 259974 250978 237975 236986 235991
      235996 236999 242001 250004 256006 260999 262995 267992
      274992 279995 286000 288005 291007 296010 301011 304008
      307004 311996 316001 315006 313010 312014 312019 318022
      323021 326020 333015 338009 342007 347006 353000 356997
      359001 364011 364025 364033 362040 360046 358050 356054
      352059 337067 333071 332079
 0.01 332079 335093 342104 346109 348117 349122 352124 355126
      357126 363123 366118 368111 370109 372110 372115 373123
      375127 380128 383127 386127 391124 393126 397127 404129
      411133 409139 408143 406143 406140 402134 398134 395135
      393140 393144 392149 390153 386157 378168 373174 374178
      372181 370183 369187 374191 378196 382202 386206 389209
      392210 395213 399214 403220 397224 395228 395231 399237
      404237 408237 410236 414235 415232 417229 418223 420210
      428197 431190 432188 433182 435178 436173 436165 435162
      432158 427151 425143 425139 426135 431135 433142 435148
      439154 442157 445161 448168 451173 457172 461168 463166
      467166 472170 474173 474178 474184 475187 476192 479196
      481204 480213 479213 477218 481223 491232 501246 511257
      515263 522267
 0.01 447969 448966 448964 448961 447959 446961 446964 445966
      447969 447969
 0.01 446978 446976 446973 447971 445969 444971 444973 444976
      444978 445981 446978
 0.01 425824 423822 422820 421820 420818 418817 416818 414819
      413821 412824 411826 413828 415830 417829 419829 420827
      422826 424826 425824
 0.01 400030 401024 400018 400012 399005 398001 394000 388006
      381009 381013 383019 378024 380035 381039 387039 392040
      396042 398043 399040 400032 400030
 0.01 378997 378994 378992 378990 376988 375988 373988 371988
      369988 367990 369992 371994 373994 374997 376999 378997
 0.01 254828 254826 253824 253822 252820 251820 251818 250816
      248817 246817 244817 243819 243821 244823 245825 246827
      247828 249828 251828 253830 254828
 0.25 516227 514225 514221 517214 517205 515202 512200 508198
      505203 503204 501209 501220 502222 504226 507226 512226
      514228 516227
 0.25 511173 511168 510165 510161 508159 507160 503159 500158
      498159 496161 495163 496166 498167 501168 503171 504174
      507177 508178 510175 511173
 0.25 506771 506758 502748 498740 495737 491737 488740 487733
      488727 487720 480693 479680 477674 475670 472666 469664
      463662 445656 443657 440660 441667 442674 442681 443687
      447697 445720 447729 447736 444747 443758 445773 447799
      453819 455832 455848 455853 457860 459865 459871 456879
      451884 439896 432904 431910 428914 423923 420931 414947
      409948 404948 401951 400956 389972 388977 391983 395984
      398983 403977 405974 406968 417956 423954 426951 431943
      436936 439925 443918 445915 450915 456920 458925 458931
      458947 458965 460970 463972 466971 469967 472959 475950
      478941 480929 484916 488906 494886 496877 499866 503845
      504837 504829 505815 506801 507789 506771
 0.25 495166 495165 493165 492165 491166 490167 489169 488170
      488172 489174 490175 491173 492170 493168 494166 495166
 0.25 483133 481131 479131 478132 479133 481134 483133 483133
 0.25 465132 465129 464128 463126 463125 462126 462129 462130
      463131 464133 465132
 0.25 467018 468016 468013 467011 466010 465010 464011 463013
      463016 463018 464020 466019 467018
 0.25 429016 429007 428999 428981 426974 424972 421972 418977
      415984 413001 410014 409021 408025 408031 410036 413041
      417045 420047 423046 425040 427032 429016
 0.25 374878 371868 372865 370863 363864 358860 354856 352849
      352842 353830 351824 346824 334829 330826 325824 320825
      317830 315842 314855 311853 308853 305857 303861 299865
      293873 288877 282880 277882 274886 273893 276898 282907
      288918 290924 290931 287941 285945 281949 276963 274969
      275976 277981 279985 288990 291997 296001 299002 302001
      306996 310987 314984 320983 326986 332987 344986 349984
      352980 355975 357968 364957 366945 369920 371914 372911
      371906 369900 368891 372884 374878
 0.25 332008 331005 329006 326008 324010 322012 320014 319016
      320019 322018 325016 327014 328012 330010 332008
 0.25 283827 282826 280825 278823 276822 274822 272821 270822
      269822 268823 268825 268827 269827 269828 271830 272830
      273831 275831 276831 278831 280830 281829 282829 283827
 0.25 232824 233822 233820 233818 233816 232814 231813 231812
      229810 227809 225810 224811 224813 224815 225817 225819
      226821 227823 228824 229824 230825 232825 232824
 0.50 512215 512214 512212 513210 513209 511210 509211 508211
      508214 508217 509217 510217 512216 512215
 0.50 502798 501783 498776 496774 493776 489781 486774 483758
      478726 477718 476711 475705 475700 475692 474684 472678
      470672 465669 461670 459673 458680 460689 460698 454707
      453713 454719 455730 455738 453745 453752 453760 452766
      451781 450791 451799 452806 454813 457827 457843 458850
      460853 463852 467852 468863 467871 466876 461887 460893
      461898 463905 465914 465922 462937 461953 462960 466961
      467959 471952 473944 479918 484906 488890 496865 499851
      501844 501834 501816 502798
 0.50 431930 432928 432926 431923 429921 428922 427923 426925
      426926 426928 426931 428932 430932 431931 431930
 0.50 423032 424025 424018 423011 423006 421001 418001 417008
      416013 414017 412022 412029 414033 416036 418037 421037
      423033 423032
 0.50 357923 358916 357910 351903 346901 340901 329904 320905
      315905 313902 312893 315888 320881 325879 331879 341881
      344880 346878 346874 341872 336872 328872 322874 320877
      299873 284883 281886 279891 281897 283902 291919 293925
      293932 289943 285952 283962 282967 282975 284981 288984
      295987 297990 296997 298999 300997 303993 308983 314978
      320978 325979 330980 336978 340977 344973 348965 351955
      349950 346947 343941 343936 350935 354936 354932 355929
      357923
 0.50 349835 349833 348832 346832 345834 344834 343836 343838
      343839 343840 343841 344842 345843 345842 346841 347840
      348838 348837 349835
 0.50 331844 330843 328843 327844 329845 330844 331844
 0.50 230820 231818 230816 229814 227813 227812 227813 226815
      227817 227819 228820 229821 230821 230820
 1.00 498837 497834 494831 490831 488826 490818 491813 492809
      491806 486813 484816 483821 480825 479830 475838 473848
      475855 475862 470883 469893 471905 473908 475909 476907
      481899 484891 486880 489871 492861 495853 497842 498837
 1.00 474803 473785 473777 472773 470771 468766 463763 459773
      456786 455792 455801 458815 461829 463831 465824 468814
      474803 474803
 1.00 469942 469940 469938 469937 469936 467935 467937 467940
      467942 467944 467946 468944 469943 469942
 1.00 330943 329930 332924 331920 330916 327911 323911 312913
      302910 299906 300901 296897 295895 295891 297888 296885
      289887 285889 286893 293904 292907 293911 295916 297923
      296931 290954 288966 289972 291979 296980 301979 305979
      310975 324960 328952 330943
 1.50 487856 487851 487846 485845 481845 479847 480851 481854
      481859 480862 480867 480872 481875 483873 484870 486866
      486864 486859 487856
 1.50 477895 477892 476890 475889 474890 474892 474895 475897
      477896 477895
 1.50 462800 462797 461796 461797 461800 462801 462800
 1.50 327924 324917 322916 317916 310916 305916 301918 300925
      297933 296939 294947 292954 291957 292962 294967 294977
      300977 306974 313962 319951 325939 324932 326925 327924
 2.00 323924 321919 318918 314918 307919 303924 299935 297940
      297945 296953 294959 297962 299962 298964 296970 296974
      299976 304973 307969 312958 313950 316944 318939 320937
      319934 320929 323924
 3.00 313926 313924 312924 310923 308924 306926 306928 306929
      308930 310929 312928 313926
 3.00 307962 308958 307955 305957 303959 301962 300964 299966
      298970 297973 299973 301972 303969 305966 306964 307962

$$




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