Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 282058
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
457 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 29/0000 UTC THRU APR 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

WHILE THE PRIMARY SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFIED
EASTERN TROF WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS QUICKLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY DAY 1---ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS
WITH THE PRIMARY MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL PUSH OFF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT.  THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION AN AREA OF ENHANCED
UVVS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
PERIOD---SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP AND SNOWFALL TOTALS.
SEE THE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

NORTHERN PLAINS---UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES

MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THE STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND UPPER LAKES REGION DURING SUNDAY.  THE QUICK EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST
DETERRENT TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS.  HOWEVER---WITH AN AXIS OF ABOVE
AVERAGE PW VALUES EXPECTED AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS AND THE
STRONG ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS---WIDESPREAD
MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS IN THE .10-.25"+ RANGE POSSIBLE.  THERE MAY
BE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIP TOTAL OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE L.P. OF
MI FROM WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON---HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WILL DIRECT THE AXIS OF
ADDITIONAL ONSHORE FLOW MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND AND COASTAL B.C.  THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS.

DAYS 2/3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MOVING NORTH AND WEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF A QUASI PERMANENT UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW A HEALTHY
SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.  WHILE MOST PCPN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE PRETTY
LIGHT...WEST ASPECTS OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE PAC NW WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS DUE TO OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.  A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
COAST ON TUE SHOULD HELP SPREAD PCPN FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

MODEL QPFS WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH SPREADING HEFTY TOTALS ALONG
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE COASTAL RANGES OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DURING
THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  GIVEN MODEST TIMING DIFFERENCES...OPTED FOR A
GFS/ECMWF COMBINATION.

...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY/NORTHEAST...
...SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING FROM CANADA INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.  LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE QUICK
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WILL MINIMIZE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
BOTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  UPSTREAM...THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PRODUCE A
NARROW SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTION OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
AGAIN...THE QUICK PROGRESSION AND LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
TOTALS.

THE GFS APPEARED TO BE TOO QUICK TO PROGRESS THE SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVE EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM/UKMET LOOKED TO BE USABLE
FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.  THE ONE CAVEAT ABOUT THE UKMET WAS THAT IT
TENDED TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH PCPN AMOUNTS GIVEN THE LIMITED
MOISTURE AND QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSIVELY PUSHING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST WILL SLOW DOWN AND LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES ENOUGH ON TUESDAY TO THE POINT WHERE THERE
SHOULD BE SOME CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FOCUSED ON TUESDAY WHICH LOWERS THE
CONFIDENCE IN MANY OF THE DETAILS REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS.

THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF REMAINED IN DECENT AGREEMENT...SO TENDED TO USE
THOSE MODELS AS WELL AS THE 28/12Z IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED
ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF,

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/BANN

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 538205 537196 533188 530181 530175 528172 523165 519159
      515156 508156 510165 505163 498163 497168 498172 497185
      498188 502190 507195 512201 515208 522213 527218 531220
      533218 536211 538205
 0.01 545893 545882 543875 540861 542845 541829 541820 539813
      533801 532795 534789 535783 535776 530762 528756 525752
      522747 519745 514746 510749 500756 497760 494765 490775
      486786 484791 481796 479801 474804 465803 460802 454802
      446804 442807 433813 425819 422822 418823 401836 393844
      388852 385856 383861 380870 377875 377882 375885 375890
      377895 380900 385902 390902 392906 391908 388921 387927
      387935 393943 398940 402936 410919 415914 418910 427909
      438912 441916 435918 417926 410935 407945 409950 412950
      414952 420952 424954 429957 434957 443962 448965 450969
      450973 446986 450993 452008 453024 453032 455037 460048
      463052 466056 470059 472063 477073 489093 492097 498098
      506094 510091 513087 519079 524070 527055 528037 526023
      523008 522001 521994 520986 520981 525971 530962 535949
      538935 541923 544906 544897 545893
 0.01 520271 522263 522259 521256 520250 518244 515234 511224
      505216 503211 500208 494205 489204 485204 481207 477209
      474213 474216 478220 482222 484227 483233 480230 477229
      475230 472233 470237 470243 478264 481274 485284 488288
      492291 497292 501292 510291 513288 516283 519275
 0.01 427698 426689 425686 423686 417687 411688 408689 404693
      402698 401704 398714 397720 398728 400733 404736 409736
      413732 416729 419724 424715 426703 427698
 0.25 532208 531203 530197 528191 527185 525176 522172 518174
      515175 512173 507170 504172 503178 504184 510191 516198
      521205 524208 527210 532208
 0.25 518271 519262 519256 516246 512235 507226 502217 499212
      496209 492209 488211 485215 485220 490229 494240 490237
      486236 482238 479233 476232 472236 473243 477253 482260
      487271 491280 495283 500285 504286 509286 512283 515279
      518271
 0.25 524886 524879 524872 522862 520852 516845 514838 515831
      516821 517810 514807 510806 506813 503821 501832 498840
      494846 491848 487849 481848 476842 468839 461842 454845
      449851 446853 442853 437854 432856 432859 440862 447863
      454861 460864 462869 461876 460887 461893 462897 464900
      467901 473897 478895 482896 484901 486904 489906 494906
      496909 501916 506919 511919 513917 518911 520905 522898
      524886
 0.25 488990 488985 488980 486972 482967 477965 472968 469972
      467979 467986 469994 473998 480998 484995 488990
 0.50 516272 517262 517256 515249 513244 511236 509232 503221
      497212 492213 488216 487220 488223 491229 495240 502249
      506261 499254 496249 493244 490239 488237 485237 482240
      479236 476233 474236 474241 476246 478251 483256 486261
      491272 494277 499281 505283 509281 513277 516272
 0.50 526201 525195 523190 522186 517183 515179 511177 510175
      508180 509185 512188 515190 518195 521198 525201 526201
 0.50 503870 503865 502861 500860 497859 494860 492861 491866
      492871 493873 494878 495881 497881 499880 501877 502873
      503870
 0.50 486859 485859 484858 483859 484861 485860 486859
 1.00 514266 515259 514253 511244 509238 507235 502227 498219
      496216 494216 491219 491224 492230 494235 497239 503246
      506255 509264 511268 514266
 1.00 505276 504268 503263 501260 497255 493247 489240 485240
      483243 480245 482249 487254 491262 494269 498276 501278
      504279 505276
 1.50 511260 512256 511252 509246 507240 503234 500228 498223
      495220 493225 494233 497238 502242 505247 507253 509260
      511260
 1.50 503275 503267 499261 496256 493251 491245 487241 484245
      484248 487251 490256 492261 495267 499273 503275
 2.00 502272 502267 499262 496257 494254 492250 490245 488245
      487249 489252 491257 493261 495265 498269 501273 502272
 2.00 500235 500234 499232 498230 498229 497226 496225 495226
      495228 495231 495232 496234 498235 499236 500235
 3.00 497263 496260 495257 495256 493255 493256 494259 495259
      496260 497263 497263

24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 527252 520244 517239 516235 514229 511225 506216 503212
      500208 492204 488205 482203 476209 474209 473212 475217
      482224 486227 484231 473228 470232 468236 469241 472246
      468250 468254 468260 471264 474265 475269 474276 472290
      475296 477299 487304 495302 504303 508301
 0.01 535204 536197 535193 532191 530186 524171 520165 517158
      506151 504154 503160 499161 495160 492160 491163 492166
      491167 489170 491172 491178 491183 492187 495189 497190
      504188 514197 517206 521208 524209 535204
 0.01 537732 536725 534722 531719 529714 528708 527704 524695
      518677 516664 513657 509648 507646 505642 501637 496636
      494637 491641 486646 475659 469666 460668 452667 446667
      443666 439666 432666 424669 420670 418673 414679 412686
      413691 412694 406700 404706 402714 403725 408731 414737
      416742 414745 412746 406750 403753 403755 402760 402764
      406770 405776 404779 399783 393788 389789 386792 381797
      379800 376801 374801 370798 369789 364787 358790 356792
      354791 355786 357777 358768 357759 357753 358749 360741
      363734 366728 374714 381702 382697 380695 379692 376691
      367693 361696 355703 351709 347716 343721 327743 323750
      320756 317764 315772 311805 311809 310814 308824 306831
      304838 302847 300853 299871 300891 302899 306904 314916
      316923 317935 317941 315946 306946 301946 299948 297956
      296977 298985 300992 304998 308993 314979 316973 319971
      323973 326980 330980 332978 340973 342970 343966 344961
      344956 346948 351932 357919 364905 367899 371894 389872
      393868 396865 402860 404857 408857 413857 417858 432857
      446860 451866 452870 455873 461888 463893 466893 473892
      478887 481882 485879 488874 493868 502857 511846 514840
      519834 527820 535808 539800 539790 538777 538767 537747
      536736 537732
 0.01 544001 544994 543990 542983 539976 536971 533965 529962
      520957 514953 511949 504941 499934 496931 489924 480915
      472909 462905 455905 451906 450908 448911 448915 449922
      452928 455932 471947 477951 475954 472954 471957 470961
      471968 474974 477980 483989 492998 500004 503008 507013
      510018 514023 513026 511024 507021 500019 497015 493011
      491010 489011 486012 486015 484017 484022 487029 490034
      494037 498041 506048 512061 514068 517073 521075 525073
      527065 527057 526049 523041 521035 525038 529042 533042
      538038 540033 540027 538024 538017 540014 542009 544001
 0.01 491139 490139 489137 489136 487136 486136 485136 486136
      487139 489140 490140 491139
 0.01 391082 392072 389066 387063 387060 390054 390050 387049
      380047 375047 371041 368045 367049 365050 358053 359056
      365060 369066 374070 374075 372079 375082 379083 381081
      385086 386084 384081 386079 391082 391082
 0.01 349811 349809 347808 346809 346810 345812 345814 344814
      343816 345818 347820 348818 348816 348813 349811
 0.01 341102 342096 340093 338089 335085 333082 331077 329078
      328083 330086 333090 335093 336098 339102 341102
 0.01 333798 333793 331794 330796 329801 328803 327805 327809
      327814 327818 328822 330822 330818 330815 331811 331807
      332804 332800 333798
 0.25 520269 517249 511231 501217 499214 495212 489215 487220
      489224 490229 491235 484237 481239 479243 478250 479255
      483263 485267 485273 485277 487281 490284 494286 502286
      508284 513276 517273 520269
 0.25 519185 518181 516179 513176 512175 510172 507172 505172
      502172 502174 504176 506178 510179 511181 512184 515187
      519185
 0.25 520739 520731 519725 516717 514711 511709 505708 501707
      499709 494715 491719 487719 481720 476721 474723 467728
      454737 451739 446740 442740 438742 434744 432747 431752
      431757 433761 436763 442764 448763 450766 452772 450777
      449781 451793 455799 459800 463799 469798 477797 481798
      479809 479821 480827 482831 485833 490833 497830 502824
      506816 508808 510799 512776 514765 516757 519747 520739
 0.25 453760 453759 451759 449760 448761 447761 448761 450761
      451761 453760 453760
 0.25 431785 431781 429779 427778 425779 422782 420784 419787
      420792 421794 423793 426791 428790 430788 431785
 0.25 359834 357830 354829 349830 346832 341838 337845 333853
      331862 329871 327881 327890 328895 329899 333901 334905
      336908 339910 341912 343909 348903 351895 353886 352881
      349879 347875 346871 345864 346861 350853 354846 358839
      359834
 0.25 339941 339934 335929 334928 333930 330934 328941 326947
      326956 328961 332962 336958 337951 339947 339943 339941
 0.50 516264 516257 515252 513242 509233 504226 498218 493217
      491219 491225 492230 493235 495240 505255 501253 496247
      493243 489239 485240 483245 482250 484255 488264 493272
      500278 505280 507277 508270 507266 516264
 1.00 514261 513253 511246 509239 505234 502228 499224 496222
      494223 493228 495231 496237 500242 503246 506253 509259
      514261
 1.00 505273 504268 503262 501259 498255 496251 493247 490243
      486246 487253 488257 491261 493264 496268 500271 504275
      505273
 1.50 511255 509249 508243 506239 503236 500232 499227 496225
      495229 497232 497236 500240 503244 504248 507252 510256
      511255
 1.50 502267 500264 499261 498258 497255 495253 494251 491248
      489246 488249 489252 490256 491258 494261 495263 497265
      500268 502267
 2.00 507248 507245 507244 505243 504244 505245 506247 506248
      507248
 2.00 497260 496257 495255 494254 494253 492251 491250 490250
      490252 490254 490255 491257 493258 494260 496261 497260
 2.00 499237 499235 498234 498235 499237 499237

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 477618 488631 495642 498646 501650 502656 504664 504679
      502687 501692 497702 492711 486718 478725 474728 468730
      461736 455743 452748 448752 441758 433765 429766 430771
      435783 439796 439801 438804 439808 444817 449827 451832
      454835 477867 484878 488889 492899 493905 497909 503915
      509921 513923 517928 519934 519942 517947 515950 505949
      501948 494947 486942 481940 479937 473930 460913 454907
      446901 443898 440896 432890 428886 427881 422872 414849
      409840 405829 402819 399813 398810 394810 386807 383804
      382798 382791 383784 385772 389763 390752 392747 396744
      400741 404736 411738 418744 421748 423750 424748 430740
      433735 432732 428730 427728 436722 440717 440711 447703
      450699 452694 449688 445683 438680 429678 421677 414677
      411676 406672 403668 401662 400653 405642
 0.01 536212 536203 534195 530189 528182 526174 522169 517153
      507126 504119 500114 496110 493109 491106 485105 483107
      479107 468110 465111 461111 457110 454108 450103 444101
      440099 435102 432106 432110 434112 442113 444120 445124
      445130 444135 442137 438142 433145 432154 435161 434166
      432169 432173 434175 436177 437181 436186 433188 427199
      426203 428205 426212 417220 412223 408229 399235 398238
      398241 400244 403246 424261 436287 443289 446290 449289
      453288 459285 467278 472274 477271 483269 490271 496275
      499281 501283 503283 506282 507279 509274 511272 516269
      520263 522259 523254 528239 529230 531223 536212
 0.01 521218 520216 520215 519213 519212 519209 518207 518206
      517204 515206 515208 514211 514213 515216 515219 516221
      518221 519220 520220 521218
 0.01 488200 484197 478193 473191 468186 466188 463188 460193
      460202 466203 468202 472202 477202 484202 486202 488200
 0.01 449080 448077 449080 449080
 0.01 369001 368995 366989 362980 359975 358972 358968 360962
      361956 362947 361939 360933 360927 359918 361912 364907
      366903 365896 363891 359881 352871 346862 333848 327840
      320830 309814 300808 295807 290808 288812 288819 291829
      300853 303856 305861 310869 313874 315881 318894 320906
      320920 321935 322938 322943 321951 320965 319971 316974
      314996 311000 307003 302005 301999 302984 303978 303971
      301966 297963 293961 287961 284973 283976 280978 276978
      272975 267978 265982 266987 265993 265001 267005 272007
      276010 276014 276020 277024 281028 285031 295037 299040
      301042 301046 299052 298059 287056 283055 279057 275065
      277075 281080 284083 287093 291096 299097 305098 309096
      313094 315088 317086 318082 321078 322076 325074 329073
      338076 334055 330053 324054 316058 310060 308059 309056
      310048 313048 316050 321050 325049 323040 319037 315032
      315029 317028 321026 331022 340017 349013 360009 365005
      369001
 0.01 343730 342724 341717 337715 331717 325723 319730 306735
      303738 301743 297752 293761 292772 292778 292783 293788
      296792 300794 304793 306791 308793 312796 316796 318793
      321782 323772 326762 336747 340738 343730
 0.01 241962 241960 241959 239959 239961 241962 241962
 0.25 515253 516246 515237 513231 509225 504215 500209 495206
      484208 479209 475212 470214 465214 453214 448216 442217
      436218 433222 431234 425237 421238 422243 425245 429245
      434245 441247 453249 458249 465250 474257 481260 486261
      492261 497262 502265 506263 512259 515253
 0.25 520183 519180 516177 515176 512174 509173 507177 506179
      506184 507186 510187 514188 516187 519185 520183
 0.25 487231 487230 485229 483229 482232 483233 484233 486233
      486232 487231
 0.25 440846 439844 439843 438842 437840 435838 435837 433836
      431836 431838 431840 432841 432842 434845 435847 437849
      439848 440846
 0.25 352949 352942 352935 349921 349913 347906 344895 345889
      345885 343881 340877 336875 331877 327874 324877 323883
      324888 327895 331905 335909 335915 334928 332944 328954
      326968 326975 327982 329987 332992 337994 342991 348982
      350975 350968 351957 352949
 0.50 511247 511241 508236 505231 504225 499214 495210 493210
      488212 484212 479214 479218 484222 488223 492228 494233
      495240 493246 492248 494251 498254 502257 506255 509252
      511247
 0.50 483247 483245 481242 481239 480239 479236 478236 477235
      476233 474233 473234 472234 471236 471238 471240 472241
      473242 475243 476243 478245 479246 481249 482248 483247
 0.50 468220 468219 466218 465219 464220 462220 461220 460220
      459220 457220 455220 454221 455222 457223 458223 460223
      461223 462222 464222 465222 466222 467221 468220
 0.50 459237 458236 457234 455235 453235 453236 451236 450235
      448236 447236 447238 447240 449241 451241 452240 453240
      454240 456239 458238 459237
 0.50 345973 346965 345956 344949 343947 339946 336950 333956
      332962 331971 332980 333985 337986 339984 343979 345973
 1.00 506245 505242 503243 503244 503245 505246 506245
 1.00 489218 488217 487217 486218 487218 488219 489218

$$




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