Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 131828
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 14/0000 UTC THRU SEP 15/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTH TEXAS...

THE NEXT BATCH OF ENHANCED RAINFALL IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS..ASSOCIATED WITH AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERLY WAVE
JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICAN COAST.  VERY HIGH PWS..IN EXCESS
OF 2.25 INCHES..BEING BROUGHT INLAND ON A MODEST LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW..ARE SUPPORTING THIS NEXT SURGE OF HEAVIER
RAINS.  THIS NEXT SURGE OF HEAVIER RAINS WILL PERSIST THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOURS..BUT WITH THE CONTINUED
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE EASTERLY WAVE AND A GRADUAL BACKING OF
THE H85 FLOW THAT WILL RESULT FROM THIS..RAINS SHOULD LESSEN
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY
AFFECTS MAINLY NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.  EXPECT ONLY SOME 0.50-1.00
INCH AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD MOSTLY THRU THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY..GENERALLY IN LINE WITH MODEL QPFS.


...CAROLINAS INTO GA/AL...

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR SOME ENHANCED RAINS/CONVECTION..ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAROLINAS INTO GA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF AL.  ACTIVITY
DURING THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING
LIKELY TO BE THE HEAVIEST THRU THE END OF THIS PERIOD..SUPPORTED
BY THE FRONT WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH QUASI-STATIONARY..AFTERNOON
HEATING AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
UPPER JET DYNAMICS.  POOLING OF VERY HI PWS..IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES..ALONG WITH SLOW CELL MOTION..WILL SUPPORT SOME HEAVY TO
POTENTIALLY ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINS INTO THE SATURDAY EVENING
HOURS.  BEYOND THAT PERIOD AND THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON..A BIT FASTER
FRONTAL PROGRESSION..AT LEAST THRU THE CAROLINAS..ALONG WITH LESS
IMPRESSIVE LARGE SCALE LIFT..WILL LIKELY MEAN LESS COVERAGE/MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH GENERALLY 0.50-1.00 INCH AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS..BUT WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS STILL CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE GIVEN A STILL HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW CELL
MOTION.


...FL PENINSULA...

ALTHOUGH THE EASTERLY WAVE WHICH IMPACTED THE FL PENINSULA PAST
DAY OR SO HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND AWAY FROM THE
SUNSHINE STATE..THERE IS FORECAST TO STILL BE A VERY MOIST LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA THRU MUCH OF THIS PERIOD..WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONA MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TERRY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 15/00Z
 0.01 451627 463627 467627 473627 481626 487626 492627 496630
      501632 503633 505636 511647 513650 514656 515667 516672
      518676 518681 518684 517701 516717 511729 504743 501747
      495751 489755 482756 478754 474750 466742 458734 454731
      451729 448729 443729 435730 421733 409731 404729 398731
      392736 388740 380751 372760 366771 362782 358796 357803
      355810 353818 350824 353826 355824 359819 370815 369819
      367826 365831 361836 361839 358841 354844 346855 337863
      332867 329872 316892 313898 310903 308907 303912 299914
      295920 292933 288946 286959 281974 276987 281997 283002
      287007 292011 296016 298021 303025 307028 308035 304045
      296044 292040 289041 289044 290049 292056 292070 300078
      306087 308090 307094 303097 293092 278091 276093 276096
      279101 284105 291108 296110 297112 301112 307111 313111
      317112 317114 314121 317127 315131 306130 300127 295126
      290123 273104 264099 254092 238076 234071 231065 228054
      229048 233044 235029 236025 236021 234014 231001 231967
      235958 236956 248939 252936 257920 259908 258894 256875
      246840 246838 237826 233816 233806 238796 246791 258789
      272788 294789 303786 313778 320763 325748 330739 341723
      352707 356701 364690 380676 394662 402654 406651 410647
      424636
 0.01 518970 517959 516951 517945 519938 519930 518923 517918
      513907 512899 513892 517866 517858 515853 512841 507830
      505826 502823 497824 494827 486833 476835 468840 464843
      464849 465856 463863 462869 459874 456884 455891 456898
      459901 462898 466886 468883 470881 472883 471888 472895
      473900 473909 475915 475924 475939 472959 479965 487970
      491973 493977 498987 503011 505016 508020 512019 515014
      515006 516997 515989 514983 518970
 0.01 417076 414062 409049 406046 403046 401048 397052 393052
      390050 387052 389054 394056 396059 394062 385068 382069
      378069 376067 373066 372068 374075 377079 377084 379085
      385075 388076 389079 395081 396087 400084 403084 405086
      406091 405095 404097 401099 396100 392112 390116 390119
      392119 401112 405109 407107 408103 412089 417076
 0.01 402144 400141 395139 390138 385137 382140 384145 383149
      381153 381156 384156 388154 392152 396150 399148 402144
      402144
 0.01 363067 363065 363063 362062 362061 362058 363057 363056
      365054 363054 361053 359053 358053 356053 356054 356055
      356056 357058 356060 356062 356064 357065 357067 358068
      360069 362069 363067
 0.01 343169 338165 335165 331164 326160 319156 314151 308149
      304150 302152 302156 304159 310163 319165 326168 331169
      334168 343169 343169
 0.01 351055 347054 343052 338050 333050 328051 323052 321057
      325060 330061 335061 341061 345060 348057 351055
 0.01 347077 342076 340077 336077 333077 330079 332084 333090
      336095 339100 341104 343105 344100 343094 343085 345079
      347077
 0.25 503678 503672 502666 501662 498659 492657 485656 478657
      475659 473662 467667 464670 464675 466679 469681 471682
      474687 468704 467714 468720 470724 475728 479727 482724
      490713 499698 501692 503681 503678
 0.25 504957 505952 504946 502937 501928 500919 498910 500903
      502894 502883 499875 497874 493876 490881 487889 487909
      485918 486929 487949 491954 496958 501960 504957
 0.25 348808 356781 361762 369743 373732 373724 368717 360720
      349729 340744 330771 328780 325788 320803 315819 313826
      312832 314835 316840 316845 315854 314862 313871 315873
      318872 324866 331854 335847 337839 343822 348808
 0.25 304880 304878 303876 303874 302876 302878 302880 303881
      304880
 0.25 302886 302884 302883 301884 300886 302886 302886
 0.25 279811 278806 274801 266796 263794 257795 248800 245803
      242807 241812 242819 248827 252828 258828 263821 267821
      272819 276816 278812 279811
 0.25 278016 277011 275007 270999 269994 268988 272978 274974
      275967 279958 280953 280947 277943 274944 271948 268952
      265960 256964 246967 238970 234973 232977 231981 231988
      233997 236001 240003 247008 263019 271021 275021 278017
      278016
 0.25 273067 275064 275061 272058 265052 258048 254047 249046
      245048 245052 245054 242058 241064 243068 248074 252077
      256075 261075 267075 270073 272069 273067
 0.50 492692 492687 489685 488686 486689 485692 484695 484698
      483703 482705 483710 485710 486708 488705 489702 490698
      492695 492692
 0.50 365735 362731 358730 354733 351736 347744 344753 342762
      341774 340781 334790 328798 324805 321812 319818 319827
      320836 321845 318855 316864 318867 321864 324858 330846
      337828 338825 344812 346806 348798 351784 359756 362744
      365735
 0.50 268810 267808 265806 262805 263802 263800 259800 255800
      253802 250804 250806 252808 254809 256811 258813 260814
      264814 267812 268810
 0.50 269011 269006 267001 263990 263983 264978 262974 257973
      246974 240975 235977 233981 233987 233992 235997 244002
      253008 262011 267012 269011
 0.50 255061 254064 255065 258066 261067 262063 259061 257061
      255061
 1.00 257002 258996 257992 255987 253983 250982 244980 239981
      237985 236989 237994 240997 244999 247001 251002 256003
      257002
 1.50 252996 251994 250992 249991 248990 248989 246989 244989
      243990 242992 244994 246995 246996 247997 249997 251996
      252996

$$




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