Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 170951
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
549 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 17/1200 UTC THRU OCT 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


1000 UTC UPDATE

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE.

DAY 1

FAR EASTERN TO NORTHERN MAINE

NEGATIVELY TILTED HEIGHT FALLS MOVING OFF THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK/NOVA SCOTIA AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.  AN AXIS OF
ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES--2 TO 3+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN---ALONG THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO FAR EASTERN TO
NORTHERN MAINE EARLY DAY 1---WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PW AXIS CONTINUES TO
PUSH QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD.

GREAT LAKES

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
EARLY FRIDAY---THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BE
SWINGING EASTWARD TROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL PUSH AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES--WITH POST
FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO PUSHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DAY 1.  THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES---WITH MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS OF THE
EASTERN U.P. OF MI---NORTHWESTERN L.P. OF MI AND FROM FAR
NORTHEAST OH---FAR NORTHWEST PA INTO FAR WESTERN NY STATE.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

NO MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH OF NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.  AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES IN THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THREAT FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE WEST OF THE WA/OREGON
CASCADES---SOUTHWARD INTO COASTAL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.  MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH
THE WA/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND COAST RANGE---WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE TOTALS SOUTH OF THIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OREGON
CASCADES/COAST RANGE AND INTO COASTAL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

SOUTHWEST

A MORE SOUTHERN STREAM AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED
INLAND FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA INTO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROF MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS.  HOWEVER---AT THE MOMENT---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MOSTLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH PORTIONS OF AZ INTO NM AND FAR
SOUTHWEST TX.



DAYS 2-3...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AN INITIAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE PAC NW ON FRI WILL REPLACED
BY SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON SAT BEFORE A VERY AMPLIFIED ERN PAC UPPER
TROUGH WITH AN EXTENDED FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY PRESSES INTO THE NW
FOR SUN. THIS SHOULD YIELD A RATHER UNIFORM PRECIP SHIELD ONSHORE
ACROSS COASTAL WA/OR TOWARD THE CASCADES. WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF.

GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST U.S.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE COLD CYCLONIC UPPER TROUGH AND A DISTINCT DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TO PRODUCE A
COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT AND INSTABILITY QPF. THE GUIDANCE IS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOST FACETS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST QPF ACROSS
UPSTATE NY INTO NH/VT AND MAINE.

SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTH TX
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
UPPER DYNAMICS MOVING INTO CA ON FRI/SAT WILL EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE AND FORM A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO
LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY DRAW MOISTURE FROM
THE SWRN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SOUTH TX TOWARD WEST TX/SRN
ROCKIES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH INTERNAL PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS.

UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
UPPER DYNAMICS MOVING INTO THE PAC NW ON FRI WILL TRANSITION
DOWNSTREAM AND LOWER HEIGHTS AGGRESSIVELY ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON SUN. THIS RESEMBLING EARLY CLIPPER-LIKE
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS FOR QPF AMOUNTS
LESS THAN A .25 INCH.

ORAVEC/MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 488613 499630 506649 511662 515673 525695 533715 534719
      535725 537740 538760 539770 538776 533800 530825 529851
      528858 528868 527874 527881 523891 518902 514911 508916
      494922 490925 487929 484932 482930 480924 478922 475923
      469923 465920 460918 457916 452908 448889 446884 442878
      435871 425870 420871 414871 410863 413854 418846 417835
      414821 409817 408811 404803 397796 391797 387800 381805
      381802 383799 386795 389792 404783 409781 413778 418775
      422770 426761 429752 431749 434745 438745 441746 444748
      446744 452737 453733 451729 449724 448716 445713 444715
      439716 440713 440709 443705 445703 447700 445698 443694
      440692 432689 423687 403685 385685 380686 377685 367687
      363687 363683 361680 361675 364670 369664 377657 384651
      394645
 0.01 536207 535198 534193 533190 531182 528176 523168 519164
      510162 506161 503164 499163 496161 493160 490161 487161
      485163 480166 479169 478175 482182 484185 485189 486193
      484196 482198 476202 470204 465206 460205 457207 455210
      448212 441213 435215 428217 425218 422220 423230 419229
      417228 416224 416219 414215 403216 405224 402227 399226
      391224 385225 371227 367228 364229 362232 360240 355245
      352252 354260 357264 362266 364271 366274 369277 375281
      384284 388285 391285 398286 411286 427286 443287 456287
      463289 469289 485293 499304 502303 505300 508294 515282
      519270 521265 522258 522252 522248 519239 513224 509220
      508216 508210 510207 511204 514205 518212 523218 525220
      528220 531219 533214 536207
 0.01 495784 495781 495779 494776 493774 492772 491771 490770
      488772 488773 487775 487778 486781 486783 486786 486788
      488789 489789 491789 491790 493790 494789 494787 495784
 0.01 377069 374063 374053 367053 364051 362047 357043 353037
      349033 343030 326033 323038 320041 320046 319054 322057
      327057 329060 332060 336058 341061 347063 355066 361067
      366068 369070 371073 373073 377069
 0.01 279972 278968 275966 270965 265966 261967 257969 254970
      255973 259975 263977 266979 272979 275977 278974 279972
 0.25 477618 481623 486629 490636 491644 492647 495651 500659
      509673 516688 522704 526715 528728 530742 531755 531767
      530777 527794 525803 522813 514832 506846 498857 493864
      488870 481875 477882 470898 468900 466897 464887 462875
      458865 453861 444860 443854 444850 447842 450836 453835
      456837 466841 468845 472845 474841 473833 471822 470811
      471800 473793 476791 480793 487798 492796 500791 503784
      503778 503772 501761 498752 495743 491736 486730 479724
      468715 461703 456694 452687 447680 441674 435671 429669
      423667 418664 415661 415656 417652 420649 437643 442640
      444637 444633 439631
 0.25 531211 532203 529195 526190 522186 517182 511179 510183
      512186 515192 517198 519204 523209 527213 531211
 0.25 516270 518257 516246 513235 507225 499209 495206 490206
      481206 449216 442218 439220 441224 445227 445231 443232
      434237 426239 417236 407236 401234 397234 388236 385237
      382240 375244 368243 369246 374248 377251 387254 394256
      405256 422256 432254 440253 449253 458255 468260 472269
      476273 480275 489279 497284 503287 507286 513279 516270
 0.25 425791 424790 423791 422792 421793 420794 420796 420797
      419799 418801 418802 418804 417806 419807 419806 420804
      421801 422799 423796 423794 425792 425791
 0.50 513271 515263 515255 512242 511236 509232 505227 503222
      498213 492210 486210 478211 468213 460216 455218 457222
      459228 456232 446236 444239 442245 448247 453246 457246
      461248 471255 478261 486270 492277 498281 502283 506283
      509280 513271
 0.50 528772 527762 526752 524738 522728 520721 513708 508697
      503686 499680 495676 486669 481667 478665 471658 463650
      459647 454646 441648 436650 430653 431658 436661 441664
      445668 452678 459685 474702 481712 487719 495728 498733
      502741 505755 509769 509774 509781 508788 505793 500798
      492805 488807 484805 480802 477806 476815 477823 481836
      482843 484849 487851 490850 495847 499842 504836 510827
      514817 524791 527781 528772
 0.50 492237 491232 489226 486224 481222 476221 472222 469224
      468228 473229 477229 480231 481237 484237 486236 489237
      492237
 0.50 466873 466871 466868 466866 466863 466861 466858 466856
      466853 465853 464854 463856 463857 464859 464861 464863
      464864 464866 464868 464871 466873 466874 466873
 1.00 512260 512253 511248 510242 508237 502229 497218 493217
      490219 490223 492228 496238 501247 504257 500256 497251
      494247 492243 488239 485240 483242 480241 479236 477232
      472234 471239 473243 480251 491268 496275 501279 503279
      505276 506266 507262 511262 512260
 1.50 503275 503267 500261 497255 494250 491244 489242 485243
      484247 485253 488258 490263 494269 497273 500276 503275
 1.50 503238 503236 501234 501233 500231 499229 499228 498226
      497225 496223 494222 494223 494224 494225 494228 495231
      496233 498234 499235 501237 502238 502239 503238
 2.00 503273 502267 500264 498259 496254 494251 491246 488243
      486246 486251 488256 490260 493264 495267 498271 500273
      502274 503273
 3.00 498266 498263 496260 495257 494254 492251 491249 489246
      488246 488249 488253 490256 491258 493261 495264 497265
      498266

24HR QP VT 19/12Z
 0.01 535215 537207 536200 533191 529181 524174 522170 518166
      514164 511165 504164 501166 497167 493167 489163 487159
      484157 480154 476155 475157 476162 490175 504185 510192
      516199 519203 521208 523217 526222 529224 532221 534217
      535215
 0.01 519274 521265 522256 521249 517244 513235 506227 505221
      502216 499210 498208 495206 490205 487206 481206 478207
      468212 463211 458214 455216 453222 454227 451232 441234
      437235 433239 433243 429246 427251 427254 429255 437250
      445244 456247 465247 470247 471250 470254 465266 463273
      460277 453280 434288 426290 422292 418295 416301 418306
      427313 438318 449321 471326 481330 489330 493327 496322
      502310 513290 517281 519274
 0.01 526717 524701 522688 515663 511654 506649 493645 485645
      477650 474653 468655 464656 460660 458664 454665 444668
      444675 448682 440689 435696 433701 431704 428704 423706
      418706 414705 411708 410711 412714 415716 418717 427715
      430718 430722 428724 423730 424735 423741 417750 415754
      412758 411761 413764 414767 415774 411780 403784 394787
      386793 380799 371810 365816 363819 361825 359827 358832
      367832 370834 373838 375844 378846 384842 386838 386833
      389833 392837 397844 394856 401860 405862 409865 414870
      416872 421874 428874 431871 431868 423865 419863 418859
      416848 414840 415832 415828 416825 417824 420827 422832
      424836 426836 433831 438830 441832 446831 448829 453821
      456809 459801 461797 465794 471789 474788 477785 481784
      485781 491775 504762 512749 519729 520724 522721 526717
 0.01 485227 485225 484223 483222 481220 480219 478219 476218
      475218 473219 471221 472223 472224 474226 475227 477229
      478229 480230 480231 481232 482232 483229 485227
 0.01 383131 384129 384128 382126 380126 378128 376130 378132
      378133 380133 382131 383131 383131
 0.01 387077 387062 379060 381054 381051 379050 373043 367041
      363037 363030 361027 358027 356024 349024 345021 342017
      339017 336022 329025 327030 326036 331044 334056 339057
      345057 348054 351053 353056 350059 346061 349064 352064
      353061 356059 365059 367065 368070 372079 373084 377083
      385079 387077
 0.01 365121 363119 363118 361118 360118 358118 356120 355122
      356122 357123 359123 361123 363123 365121 365121
 0.01 351079 351075 345074 342074 338076 334077 332081 333086
      335090 337091 338084 341080 345079 350079 351079
 0.01 230989 232994 235997 242002 252005 262007 266006 271007
      274011 278012 284013 288016 296017 297012 295006 290000
      289994 288991 290989 292985 292980 291979 287975 286966
      283963 261965 257963 255958 250951 242946 237944 236946
      233955 231965 230967
 0.25 517270 518261 517254 512244 506234 501226 497223 494222
      493226 494238 494242 491242 486243 485245 484250 485256
      487262 486269 483273 480277 473283 465289 458296 456301
      458304 463309 469311 479311 488309 495306 503298 508291
      513279 517270
 0.25 514680 514675 512670 509665 504662 499663 493666 488670
      479676 464696 456706 448714 445720 445728 444735 443742
      439747 438750 437754 441760 445759 451757 456757 459752
      461746 461737 462733 464731 471723 495713 500710 505705
      508700 509692 514680
 0.25 263982 264980 261979 259977 254972 250968 245962 241956
      238955 236957 234965 233973 234981 239985 246985 249983
      253983 258984 262982 263982
 0.50 515267 516261 515256 513249 508242 502237 502251 490253
      490265 490272 488276 479289 471302 474304 478305 485305
      491303 496300 501295 506290 509282 513274 515267
 0.50 509676 508674 506672 504672 500672 497673 494675 492677
      494679 496679 498680 502681 503681 507681 508679 509676
 0.50 248976 247974 246971 244968 243966 242964 241960 239959
      238961 237964 236967 235971 236975 237978 241979 244979
      246978 248976
 1.00 507277 507274 507273 507272 506270 505270 503269 501269
      499270 499271 498273 498276 498278 498279 499282 501284
      502283 503283 504282 505281 506279 507278 507277


24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 524262 526251 525245 523240 519232 513223 509214 506211
      501208 484209 477211 468213 452217 448217 444219 440219
      436222 423231 418231 413229 410227 407232 403235 400236
      391234 382236 378237 375242 375246 379248 389249 393252
      392259 395261 399261 408261 412261 413264 413272 412279
      414283 418285 427286 434285 444285 452284 460284 470285
      480288 491293 499296 508296 513290 516284
 0.01 523920 524915 523908 521900 518892 514885 506876 501873
      497868 494861 491856 487851 481845 473836 469832 465828
      461823 457817 447809 437805 429807 426809 423810 420808
      416808 414809 414814 414826 412835 410837 407836 403833
      404818 402818 400820 396826 396834 393844 390849 388852
      388856 386870 383878 383886 384895 383904 383909 385912
      388916 392915 394912 396896 401887 404876 404871 405868
      411864 415859 419860 420863 433861 435862 436868 438878
      441883 442887 445889 446898 446908 448911 451911 452914
      448915 446918 447923 452925 454928 455932 457935 459935
      462932 463927 465923 473923 478927 482932 489936 496935
      501932 501928 503925 509926 520926 523920
 0.01 473680 472675 470673 464670 459669 452669 448671 444673
      443676 438681 431684 425687 422693 421701 423709 425711
      429710 436708 441704 444698 446695 450692 455693 458695
      462694 464688 467685 471683 473680
 0.01 452733 452730 451728 449728 448728 446729 444729 443730
      443733 443735 445735 447736 447737 449736 450734 452733
      452733
 0.01 230989 234998 240004 246011 252018 264029 271034 279037
      281038 282041 284045 286049 286052 285053 281057 276058
      270057 266055 255045 249042 245045 245050 253055 261059
      266060 270063 279067 291069 295071 298075 302082 304085
      308085 315092 323097 326099 333100 337103 339109 349119
      352119 353115 348109 346105 347100 350096 356097 362097
      365095 368090 366086 363081 366076 367071 370068 373069
      373073 375084 377088 381091 387085 391083 393077 397076
      401072 398067 391063 386063 382065 378062 376057 376051
      373047 370045 364043 362037 359035 353039 353035 350033
      344037 336039 333042 331044 327044 322042 320043 311046
      306046 302044 297041 295037 293032 292029 294028 299029
      302031 310033 315035 319033 321033 319026 318022 315018
      314015 312015 306014 302012 299008 297004 294000 288995
      282991 279987 283983 283978 279976 275974 274974 272971
      269968 265966 262961 261957 250945 243940 240938 238940
      234944 231950
 0.01 382965 382961 381958 377956 373956 371958 368961 363964
      359965 357967 355972 357976 359978 362978 364977 368977
      373975 379972 381968 382965
 0.01 359045 358043 356042 355044 356047 358046 359045
 0.01 356062 355055 354051 352049 347046 343046 342048 336051
      338056 341056 341059 343060 344059 348057 350062 346064
      344068 346072 349071 351068 353068 355064 356062
 0.01 340065 341063 339061 337060 335060 334061 332062 332064
      333065 335066 337066 339067 340065
 0.25 518271 520264 520257 519247 517239 513231 509224 502219
      494217 492218 489221 483226 477228 470230 464234 458236
      451239 439245 433247 426247 423240 419239 416241 418246
      420248 426250 431253 440253 447253 450253 453257 450260
      443263 439268 442270 447271 453270 460268 467267 474271
      488278 501290 505291 508289 512284 518271
 0.25 457264 456263 454262 452262 452263 454264 456264 457264
 0.25 292020 291016 289014 287012 285011 282010 278011 277013
      277018 278021 279022 283023 287023 289022 292020
 0.25 257998 258995 257991 255988 253982 252976 251970 248966
      245956 241952 237953 234959 233963 232977 233985 234989
      240997 248002 254003 257999 257998
 0.50 516270 518263 518257 517246 514237 510230 507226 503223
      497221 486232 480234 472234 465239 459240 470251 478266
      482269 487271 493276 499282 505287 508286 511282 514274
      516270
 0.50 243980 244976 243972 243969 241966 239964 236965 235968
      234971 234975 234979 235982 236985 239987 241986 242982
      243980
 1.00 514266 515261 515256 514250 512242 510236 506230 502227
      497227 495229 494233 493238 490239 485240 477238 475240
      476243 478244 482248 488259 495270 503279 506281 508277
      510270 514266
 1.50 513263 513258 512252 511246 509241 508237 505232 502230
      498232 499239 501243 501248 504253 506258 509262 512264
      513263
 1.50 504273 504268 503262 501259 499253 496250 493246 488245
      487250 488254 491260 494264 496268 499271 502274 504273
 2.00 507245 508243 507240 506238 505237 504236 503234 502233
      501233 500232 500235 501237 501238 502240 504241 505243
      506245 506247 507245
 2.00 502267 501264 499261 498259 496257 495254 493251 491249
      489249 489252 490255 492258 494261 495264 497266 500269
      502267

$$





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