Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 210701
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 21/1200 UTC THRU FEB 22/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...CENTRAL-NORTHERN CA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

GUIDANCE REASONABLY AGREES THAT LEAD LOW...IMPULSE/JET ENERGY
ALOFT...AND LEAD BAROCLINIC LEAF EXPANSION INLAND AND OVER THE
NWRN U.S. TUESDAY WILL SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD SWATH OF MODERATE TO
TERRAIN ENHANCED PCPN/ELEV SNOWS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED
SHORT TERM WPC CONTINUITY ACCORDINGLY TO ADDRESS RECENT SATELLITE
AND MODEL TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE MESO MODELS. THIS INCLUDES SOME
1-2" LIQUID AMOUNTS DAY1 FOR SW OREGON INTO THE OREGON
CASCADES...WITH DECREASING ACTIVITY SPREAD INTO TUE NIGHT WITH
MAIN SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. FOR DETAILS ON WINTER WEATHER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND INLAND ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ROCKIES AS
DYNAMICS/HEIGHT FALLS SQUEEZE OUT PCPN...PLEASE SEE THE WPC WINTER
WEATHER DESK QPFHSD DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FARTHER SOUTH UNDERNEATH...GUIDANCE ALSO AGREES THAT WHILE
ADDITIONAL ERN PACIFIC RIPPLES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED UPON A
DECAYING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE FEED THROUGH TUE IN THE WAKE
OF MAIN MID-UPPER TROUGH/JET SUPPORT...THE BULK OF HEAVY PCPN FOR
N-CENTRAL CA WILL ON A DECIDEDLY DOWNWARD TREND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND. LINGERING
MECHANICS THOUGH REMAIN IN PLAY FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOWS ACROSS CENTRAL-NRN CA...PARTICULARLY INTO THE
CENTRAL SIERRA WHERE TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT ENHANCES LIFT WITH THE
LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME. AGAIN...PLEASE SEE THE WPC WINTER
WEATHER DESK QPFHSD DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.


...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT DAY 1 THAT THE INITIALLY
FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL SPLIT WITH A VIGOROUS SRN STREAM
TROUGH DEEPENING AND CLOSING OFF AT MID LEVELS ON A GRADUAL BUT
STEADY ESEWD TRACK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
TUE INTO WED. FAVORABLE UPPER DIFLUENCE AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE ERN GULF COAST STATES SHOUL
STILL PROVIDE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION...WHILE BOOSTING AMOUNTS A
BIT FARTHER NORTH/


...MIDWEST / GREAT LAKES...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM PROGRESSION ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE TO
CONTEND WITH BUT FAVORABLE LEAD THETAE FLOW AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WILL SUPPORT A
SUUPORT A SWATH OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MDT PCPN ACROSS THE REGION AS
PER A FAVORED MODEL CONCENSUS.

SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 474866 472883 481893 491879 491856 477814 465795 463763
      467741 472712 474703 474683 473679 464670 461673 455683
      449696 410732 407738 404745 401753 399760 397768 396775
      395782 394785 392787 390791 387793 384795 380795 365797
      360801 353805 344813 335822 329826 322829 307830 299830
      293829 268824 261823 254824 246825 241829 238834 237843
      237848 238851 243854 247859 249866 252871 257874 260875
      263878 261886 262893 265898 270901 278903 291905 298906
      302906 302909 299914 297920 299924 301925 309924 316925
      316930 315932 317938 321943 325946 333946 342946 350944
      356941 361937 365933 370927 378916 394899 400894 404890
      409887 413883 424875 437869 444868 451866 467864 471864
      474866
 0.01 499191 509193 518186 523166 517141 509105 504057 503010
      503006 502995 501983 500951 493935 487941 476954 472975
      467988 470994 471002 471025 471037 470046 468053 469061
      470066 470072 471077 471080 470083 468078 465077 463074
      461078 464085 465090 465095 463099 459097 455092 449089
      445089 442086 442083 446083 451085 454086 456083 457073
      454066 452063 448063 438061 436059 432059 429059 428056
      424055 421053 416052 413054 411055 407054 391061 387068
      387072 388075 391082 396085 400088 399093 397106 393110
      387113 383117 382129 387144 384151 383156 383161 388174
      389182 388186 384186 373180 365178 358179 352183 349186
      349192 342190 339192 339195 342202 346209 364227 385246
      390250 397253 405257 410259 412258 417259 424264 428266
      432266 439264 461257 467257 482259 499276 506268 501256
      489245 482244 478236 480228 484228 486227 489228 500241
      506245 509247 511245 512241 511237 507229 503223 498217
      495212 493209 489207 483206 479208 477205 473200 474195
      476192 481189 485190 489192 495194 499191
 0.01 463121 463117 460114 457116 455118 453120 451120 449122
      447123 446128 449131 450133 452129 454127 456127 459128
      461124 463121
 0.01 437201 436199 436195 437187 436181 438181 440178 439171
      436166 433162 431156 428145 424147 421152 421156 422159
      426163 428167 427170 424173 421178 420186 421193 424197
      428200 433202 437201
 0.01 385095 386086 383081 380076 378069 377064 375062 371061
      368063 367068 368070 370077 370082 371084 373089 376094
      381097 385095
 0.01 366200 365198 363196 361194 358193 354191 351190 349192
      349194 351197 353199 357200 358201 362202 364202 366200
 0.25 490165 492150 492143 490139 486131 482128 480127 475129
      471130 466137 460141 452145 447144 444142 440138 437138
      435146 435152 437158 439161 446167 448170 449176 451181
      449185 449191 452195 455197 459195 463188 469182 476177
      483173 489167 490165
 0.25 475219 476217 473215 469215 463213 458209 451213 437216
      421218 415212 408208 401201 395196 380188 372184 366182
      361183 360187 365193 374205 382211 389215 397219 401220
      404223 403226 400228 392228 387227 383227 386233 392240
      398245 407249 415252 425254 432255 437255 441254 446250
      453245 459243 465226 475219
 0.25 470828 470821 469815 467810 465807 458802 455800 450801
      444807 443812 444817 448827 450831 454834 457836 460839
      463843 466844 469842 471836 470828
 0.25 453100 452097 450095 443095 438093 434093 431090 429088
      424088 425096 425100 423102 418105 411102 408100 406102
      399118 404124 411124 423122 428124 430122 436119 443118
      448114 451110 452106 453100
 0.25 412073 412071 412068 410067 408068 407068 405070 405071
      404072 405072 406074 406075 408076 410076 411075 411074
      412073
 0.25 380224 379222 379221 377220 376219 376218 374217 372216
      372215 370216 368217 368219 369221 369223 371224 372224
      373225 374226 376226 378225 380225 380224
 0.25 364216 363215 362214 361215 363216 364216
 0.25 365849 365844 362843 357848 354847 354844 359836 359826
      360823 361820 359818 352822 346827 341833 335839 332840
      326842 317841 301839 292837 284837 266836 256838 254841
      253844 256854 260859 272868 274871 274875 272884 273887
      275891 282894 287895 292895 302894 310895 317898 325902
      333903 342900 349899 354898 357895 358887 357876 359866
      358861 361857 365849
 0.25 345932 343930 341928 339927 337926 334924 332926 331930
      332933 334936 337936 338936 341936 343934 345932
 0.50 482163 481158 479154 474152 471149 466147 461148 458150
      457154 458156 461159 464162 467166 470169 475169 479167
      481164 482163
 0.50 462223 461218 458216 452216 445217 438219 433220 427222
      426227 423230 417230 414228 414224 414218 408214 404209
      399203 394198 381191 375187 369184 365184 363188 367193
      375203 381208 387212 394215 402218 406219 408222 408227
      406230 400233 394234 393236 394238 397241 404244 411247
      416249 426251 431250 439248 444246 449241 450237 450233
      451229 455226 460225 462223
 0.50 450100 448097 441097 436098 432094 429092 429096 431102
      423108 421111 418111 412112 408110 406112 406115 410117
      416116 421113 427115 431118 434116 440113 445113 450100
 0.50 346893 343882 343876 342871 340865 339858 338852 334848
      325846 314845 292842 281840 270841 267845 266849 271859
      277866 280870 280874 279877 278881 279885 283889 287890
      313889 333894 341895 346893
 1.00 450222 450220 445220 438222 430226 429231 425233 416233
      413235 411240 414243 418245 427247 434244 437240 436235
      435230 439227 446225 450222
 1.00 400211 397205 393200 388197 383194 378192 373188 369187
      367189 370195 375200 379203 384207 390209 396212 400211
 1.00 334874 333870 331868 327863 326859 324857 319853 313851
      306850 293847 286846 282846 278848 279853 282859 286864
      287873 287880 287882 291885 307883 322883 328882 332878
      334874
 1.50 429243 431241 431239 430237 428237 427236 425236 423236
      422236 421236 420236 418235 416236 415236 415239 415240
      416241 417242 418243 420243 422244 424244 425244 427244
      429243 429243
 1.50 396208 394204 391202 386198 383196 377194 374192 371190
      371193 374195 377199 380202 385204 388206 393208 396208
 1.50 324872 319864 318860 315857 307854 298851 289850 285852
      286856 292862 291866 290872 292877 295880 300881 305880
      314878 322874 324872
 2.00 426242 427240 426239 424239 423238 421238 419237 418239
      419240 420241 422241 424242 426242 426242
 2.00 386201 386200 384199 382198 380199 382200 384201 385202
      386201
 2.00 316873 315869 312867 311862 309858 306857 300854 293853
      289853 289856 295860 293866 292871 295874 301877 306877
      309875 316873
 3.00 297872 300871 301863 297860 295867 296870 297872

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