Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 211923
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
322 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 22/0000 UTC THRU JUN 23/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

*SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING REMAINS
LIKELY TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA INTO
THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THUS A HIGH RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS MAINTAINED ACROSS THIS REGION.*

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AS TROPICAL STORM
CINDY APPROACHES THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ONE PRIMARY RISK AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRONG INFLOW/MOISTURE WELL EAST OF THE STORM CENTER.  A SECONDARY
AREA OF CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE STORM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER.
FINALLY...THE RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD SPREAD NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TENNESSEE
VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY OHIO VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND
AND INTERACTS WITH WIDESPREAD ANOMALOUS MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION.

MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE
QPF...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA AND
EAST TEXAS.  THE UPDATED WPC DAY 1 FORECAST ATTEMPTED TO STAY
CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF MODEL SPREAD AND WAS BASED OFF A BLEND OF
THE UKMET...AVAILABLE HIGH RES GUIDANCE...AND CONTINUITY.  THIS
RESULTED IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TOTALS OVER ARKANSAS...BUT THIS
MATCHES THE TRENDS IN SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM CINDY.


...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSS THE REGION.  MODEL
24 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH ADVERTISING
AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  THIS
MATCHED WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.


GERHARDT

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 23/00Z
 0.01 561082 560075 559068 557053 555037 554031 554022 554015
      553011 553993 554987 554979 553963 553929 551894 550885
      548879 545868 541858 539848 535836 531825 528818 526813
      522802 514787 512783 509778 503774 496771 493769 489768
      472768 466767 462769 453768 436762 432760 429761 417764
      412767 410770 407775 404778 402772 403768 405755 407747
      409738 410732 413727 421723 422718 420712 418705 418700
      415697 410698 405701 403704 399712 396721 393731 391736
      392745 393760 393766 393773 392782 392788 391791 388790
      385788 382788 375793 370797 364798 360796 356793 351784
      345781 339779 337781 328779 322784 321793 320796 317798
      314800 306806 297809 287808 278809 270813 263817 261819
      259823 261828 264831 269833 274833 286832 297834 302835
      304840 303845 298847 290849 284854 277859 264862 259868
      254877 249894 246911 246917 248921 252929 259948 263954
      266956 272956 278958 281962 286969 292970 297972 302973
      306971 309969 314968 327967 333964 341959 352949 357943
      361937 365929 369919 375909 381899 385891 390882 393871
      395867 396860 397846 395834 389816 388811 387803 392808
      395810 396807 399803 400809 405819 406823 406829 405834
      406839 410849 414861 419870 423880 424893 422905 417914
      412921 410925 407930 407933 409938 412944 406951 402958
      398965 397972 395977 393982 389986 379990 374992 371994
      364999 355004 347010 345013 342012 340015 337019 336026
      335034 344038 347040 343042 340045 335044 331047 328052
      328058 332060 336063 341063 342052 344047 349046 356042
      360043 363045 369046 369041 371035 373032 378031 384032
 0.01 384032 389038 392048 388049 384049 381051 377049 376051
      378053 383054 385056 389058 391061 394069 396073 398076
      401075 405072 409073 412071 415068 416063 414059 410055
      406049 402046 399041 393027 392022 394019 396011 398007
      402003 407999 417991 423987 424990 425997 420003 418009
      419012 422013 426014 429016 433023 438029 441040 443043
      445043 450037 453031 454028 455022 456018 456012 457986
      457979 460976 469975 475972 481969 483967 486970 489980
      496995 496002 496009 496023 495030 494035 493030 490030
      488031 487035 485038 484044 482057 482070 483081 485090
      489107 488121 488126 489131 492139 496145 502151 509155
      514158 518161 519165 522171 526177 532184 533183 538183
      544179 546167 550148 557097 561082
 0.01 518133 517127 516122 515116 513111 511106 508104 506109
      507115 509120 512123 514128 516132 518133
 0.01 386201 386196 385194 383192 380190 378189 375187 373185
      370185 369186 371189 372191 375193 377196 379198 380199
      384201 386201
 0.01 348112 346107 343102 340096 337091 335086 332084 331088
      333090 336095 338100 341105 344111 348112
 0.01 316118 317110 315106 313100 313092 311080 309075 305076
      303077 300077 296074 291064 288060 282059 284064 287068
      287074 281073 271068 266064 262062 258061 251062 247064
      249069 253072 258075 263078 267080 272082 275086 278091
      282093 288093 290094 289097 286101 291103 298110 307117
      316118
 0.25 544944 543931 541922 539910 537901 533892 528887 526884
      525879 525872 524865 522860 522853 520844 515838 510832
      505826 499823 497822 493822 490825 489829 486838 484847
      483858 484862 487865 492866 495868 498874 504880 509885
      514890 515894 513892 513896 512898 507904 504908 504910
      507918 512924 513929 514934 516946 519953 526970 532976
      537979 539979 541975 541960 541954 543950 544944
 0.25 523076 525068 524060 523054 521049 519049 516054 515059
      514066 514074 515080 516085 519085 522081 523076
 0.25 456886 457880 457874 456863 454854 452845 439818 436815
      432816 427819 422827 422830 424834 422837 419837 415837
      414841 416851 418860 420860 420855 420844 422843 425846
      427853 429858 428863 426866 425870 427879 428891 428901
      427921 427933 424940 424950 424954 428955 433960 437956
      439947 439941 439935 444920 452908 456886
 0.25 454962 455942 454933 452930 450932 448940 447947 446957
      445964 441978 438992 436002 437009 441015 444017 446010
      447000 448981 450965 454962
 0.25 421966 422961 421957 416960 413966 410973 407977 403982
      401988 401991 403993 410991 413987 415980 417975 421968
      421966
 0.25 394000 392999 388004 383001 378004 374006 371006 369008
      360014 355018 349019 345019 343021 347026 350028 353028
      357027 359025 366016 372016 376016 378015 379010 381008
      385006 391004 394000
 0.25 387863 388855 387848 384838 379830 376827 371828 361830
      357829 354831 350834 346833 341832 335832 325848 318854
      309857 300861 293866 277874 274878 272882 269890 268896
      268902 269908 270913 270936 274945 280949 287956 293961
      298962 304961 315960 324957 331953 336946 343939 350934
      355927 360919 365912 375896 379887 382878 386870 387863
 0.25 302819 303817 301815 299814 295814 293813 290813 286814
      285816 283818 281821 283824 287825 289825 292825 295826
      298827 299823 299821 302819
 0.50 538941 538931 535920 532912 528906 526908 526915 524926
      525936 527949 528953 530957 531957 533955 536944 538941
 0.50 452874 451862 449850 444841 440834 438827 436824 434824
      433828 434835 434849 434861 430871 430881 431904 430916
      429928 429936 430940 431943 432942 434938 438928 441918
      447899 452877 452874
 0.50 445998 445997 444995 444993 444990 443989 442990 442993
      441994 441995 441997 440000 440002 441004 443004 443002
      444000 445999 445998
 0.50 384859 383851 381847 379844 374842 368844 365847 356847
      350848 347851 339856 330860 321862 310862 304863 301865
      292869 286875 280883 278886 277891 280896 284897 288900
      293901 300900 304901 311907 305907 297910 292912 288916
      283921 277928 275933 276937 279941 283943 288951 291954
      295957 307957 313957 319956 326952 338939 351926 356918
      362910 365906 367900 367897 370892 372887 374881 375875
      374869 373862 377864 379865 382864 384859
 0.50 355899 354894 349893 338894 330898 327900 322901 319904
      317907 313907 316911 319915 323917 328916 332919 335920
      339919 344917 346914 350906 355899
 1.00 445858 444855 440856 439860 439866 439871 437875 435883
      433886 434892 434904 434910 436912 440906 442897 443887
      444877 445865 445858
 1.00 363874 364867 361864 358862 353862 349861 347862 344866
      341867 333866 323866 314865 304866 300867 297870 292875
      288882 288887 291891 304897 309898 314898 322895 336888
      347880 363874 363874
 1.00 334936 334932 332931 326929 323926 317923 308917 302916
      295916 287922 282933 286937 288941 291947 295952 308953
      314954 319952 323949 327945 334936
 1.50 439894 440892 440890 440887 439885 439884 438885 437885
      436887 436890 436892 436895 437896 439895 439894
 1.50 337882 334872 332869 326869 317867 310867 304868 301870
      296876 294880 294886 301891 309894 316894 325891 333886
      337882
 1.50 331937 330934 327933 323932 315926 306921 302919 299919
      297921 293924 288926 290934 290939 293943 296947 301949
      311952 315952 320949 326941 331937
 2.00 333880 332876 330872 324870 316868 308868 301871 299874
      298878 297881 298885 304890 311891 318890 325886 331883
      333880
 2.00 323941 323936 320935 317933 316930 310926 303927 298928
      296930 294936 297943 303947 309949 313950 317949 321945
      323941
 3.00 325876 323873 319872 315871 310870 305871 302874 302880
      303884 309885 314885 318883 321881 325877 325876
 3.00 318945 317941 316939 314937 313935 311933 308932 306933
      304935 302937 303941 305942 308943 309945 312947 314948
      316947 318945
 4.00 321877 321875 319874 317873 316873 316872 314872 312871
      310872 308872 306872 305873 304874 303876 305878 307880
      309880 310879 311879 312880 314880 316880 318879 319878
      321877
 5.00 316877 317875 316874 314875 314877 316877 316877

$$





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