Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 180657
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 18/1200 UTC THRU OCT 19/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST DAY 1 ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.  A STRONG VORT ROTATING THROUGH THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ACCENTUATE LIFT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NY STATE SATURDAY MORNING AND
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MODEL CONSENSUS
IS FOR A STRIPE OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE .25-.50"+
RANGE FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT.

EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STRONG VORT AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT---CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF DAY 1 OFF OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  THIS WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS--WITH .10"+ AREAL
AVERAGE AMOUNTS IN THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS FROM NORTHEAST
OH---FAR NW PA INTO WESTERN NY AND INTO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

SOUTH TX

INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SOUTH TX DAY 1 AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.  THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PW VALUES TO
1.50-1.75" BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE HI RES GUIDANCE---INCLUDING
THE ARW--NMMB--NSSL WRF AND NAM CONEST ARE ALL EMPHATIC ABOUT
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL--WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS SHOW
LIGHTER TOTALS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THIS FLOW REGIME---WITH THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED MEAN USED TO MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE HI RES
AND OTHER MODELS.  .10-.25"+ AMOUNTS DEPICTED ACROSS SOUTH TX.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

SHOWERY CONDITION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE DIMINISHING
DAY 1 AS HEIGHT FALL MOVE INLAND AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM NORTHEAST
PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING RAINS BACK IN AFTER THE DAY 1 TIME
PERIOD.  FOR DAY 1---MOSTLY LIGHT TOTALS EXPECTED EARLY DAY 1 FOR
THE WA/OREGON CASCADES AND WA/OREGON COAST RANGES.

SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY DAY 1 OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS
OF LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 19/12Z
 0.01 530208 531200 530195 531188 530182 528173 524164 518158
      514155 515165 512167 508166 503164 500162 497159 494157
      491154 486153 483154 480157 478165 482173 483176 486175
      493175 498177 501180 506185 512183 517189 520198 521202
      525206 528208 530208
 0.01 519271 521266 522262 522257 521253 518246 514240 510229
      507223 504217 501211 496207 489205 483205 479208 474209
      469211 463212 453215 440217 436218 433220 434223 447226
      451225 455224 458226 462227 461231 456234 445233 439234
      434236 429236 423236 412230 408233 403234 398231 392231
      386231 384232 383237 384240 388241 395243 400243 405245
      412248 418248 424249 430248 441245 446244 450247 455251
      461253 467253 475255 481259 485264 489270 491276 487280
      483283 474289 468292 464297 464301 465308 468313 470315
      473316 479316 484315 489312 494309 510294 516281 519271
 0.01 508674 507668 506663 500660 485660 479664 471667 467668
      464667 456670 452675 452686 444690 440692 438695 428705
      424711 421713 418719 419727 417736 415746 414751 411754
      410757 411762 412769 409777 402782 396785 389789 382793
      377799 372804 366808 361813 357819 354825 353829 355832
      363823 365823 369827 369831 373831 387824 400858 403866
      407871 414871 423873 429874 433873 435871 436868 433864
      429859 425852 419849 418844 418837 419827 419822 421819
      425818 429820 434826 437828 440827 439817 435813 436804
      438800 439794 440787 443778 454765 461755 470739 478727
      483719 487712 493699 498693 502686 508674
 0.01 496244 494238 493235 491229 489225 484223 479222 476223
      476227 480230 482234 483236 486236 489236 492239 493243
      496244
 0.01 379078 380074 379070 376064 371061 367061 363058 374052
      370050 363051 361049 360044 360040 359035 356031 354029
      350028 347026 351025 355025 358028 362032 369033 373028
      372021 369016 367014 363013 355013 347012 339012 334016
      324037 320044 320048 322050 325055 330058 334058 335055
      339054 343056 347061 352062 355060 357064 358068 361069
      364070 366068 369067 371069 372077 375081 378081 379078
 0.01 343107 343100 342094 341089 341085 337082 332079 329077
      328083 331090 333095 336100 339102 339104 343107
 0.01 230991 231997 234001 242004 248005 252008 258014 261017
      266017 276020 288021 291023 298023 304019 304015 302008
      293993 291989 288985 287979 287972 287966 285960 281958
      279958 269961 264961 259959 253958 249956 241953 237954
      234959 231967 230971
 0.25 515277 517268 517263 516260 511249 505239 500228 498223
      495220 493224 493228 495233 498239 502244 504250 503254
      502257 499256 495252 492248 490245 487246 486250 487254
      490260 492264 494272 493279 490286 487289 482291 474295
      471300 471304 473306 477310 482309 490304 498299 506292
      512285 515277
 0.25 492682 490676 485674 477677 468683 460691 445704 441707
      437712 435717 433720 429724 426726 426730 430732 434734
      432740 429745 426750 426755 429759 434760 439757 443754
      450746 451742 453735 454729 457724 465717 479702 483698
      485694 491685 492682
 0.25 277978 274974 270971 260968 249966 243965 240968 236977
      235985 237989 240991 243990 248990 252990 257992 261994
      265992 267984 275979 277978
 0.50 509286 511281 511276 510268 506266 500264 497265 496270
      495280 493287 492292 492296 497295 501293 506290 509286
 0.50 481690 482686 480685 476684 472685 469688 463694 458702
      450707 442713 442714 443718 445721 454718 460711 466705
      474700 480693 481690
 1.00 508283 508281 508280 507277 505274 505273 504272 503270
      501270 500272 499274 499276 498279 498281 498284 499286
      500287 502288 503287 505287 505286 507285 507283 508283
 1.50 505279 504276 504275 502274 502275 501277 501279 503280
      505279 505279

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.