Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 180657
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 AM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 18/1200 UTC THRU MAR 19/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHWEST U.S...

A DEEP LAYER...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
INLAND EARLY TODAY...THEN SHEAR CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD (00-12Z SUN) AS IT IMPINGES ON THE
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES TOWARD A
FLATTER...MORE NORTHERN-STREAM DOMINANT SYSTEM...THE EMPHASIS FOR
DEEPER LIFTING (ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
FORCING/FRONTOGENESIS) AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE NORTHERN STREAM...AFFECTING FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD.
THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
PRE-FRONTAL FLOW AND MODESTLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUX (EARLY IN
THE PERIOD ACROSS THE PAC NW)...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING
TO JUST ABOVE 1.00 INCH AT THE COAST AND WEST OF THE CASCADES AND
VALUES UP TO NEAR 0.75 INCHES EXTENDING INLAND TO NORTHERN IDAHO.

ACROSS THE PAC NW...THE BULK OF THE PCPN DURING DAY 1 WILL BE
POST-FRONTAL...WITH THE RESULTANT DROP IN PW AND WEAKENING
(WESTERLY) LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MODEST
OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED TOTALS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
COASTAL AND CASCADE RANGES. THE 00Z GUIDANCE NOTED VERY LITTLE
SPREAD WITH THE QPF OVER THESE AREAS...AND AS SUCH CONTINUED TO
LEAN TOWARD A MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE LED BY THE HIGH-RES MEANS
(INCLUDING THE PARALLEL NBM).

FARTHER EAST...ACROSS THE BLUE MTNS IN NORTHEAST OR AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SALMON RIVER/SAWTOOTH/BITTERROOT RANGES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN (MT) ROCKIES...CONTINUE TO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED PCPN MAXIMA GIVEN THE ADDED DURATION
WITHIN THE BROAD WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT. WPC AGAIN UTILIZED A
COMPOSITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE WITH THE QPF...AGAIN LED BY THE HIGH-RES
MEANS GIVEN THE BETTER SENSITIVITY OVER THE TERRAIN. MAX TOTALS OF
1-2" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN ARE EXPECTED OVER THESE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCALES...THE BULK OF WHICH WILL FALL IN A 12-18
HOUR PERIOD. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW FFG ACROSS CENTRAL-NORTHERN
ID (AS LOW AS 0.75" IN 3 HOURS AND 1" IN 6 HOURS)...THESE TOTALS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED SHORT-TERM RUNOFF ISSUES. AS A
RESULT...THE MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL INHERITED FROM
THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LATEST DAY 1 ERO.


HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 19/12Z
 0.01 399644 405643 410644 421646 426647 430650 432653 434662
      435670 435676 434688 433700 432706 432713 437724 428732
      428736 432740 438748 441751 445754 449750 453751 454756
      455762 451775 459832 456837 453838 446835 438828 432821
      428817 426815 424815 421818 422822 424827 428831 429833
      432833 440837 435843 434848 434852 433857 431862 426862
      420863 419860 413850 405841 398832 389829 381826 371832
      365827 362827 359832 354842 347851 343876 342883 340887
      340893 339897 339928 339943 334955 331955 326952 325949
      324941 323936 322930 321924 320918 320890 319873 321860
      326837 330817 332803 329799 328796 329787 330782 328781
      326783 322787 317789 314788 312787 309788 306787 299783
      297777 297772 298766 299761 301753 311731 316721 321713
      326705 331699 343683 362664
 0.01 524260 522253 520249 515235 511224 509219 508212 509204
      512205 519212 523216 525220 528223 531221 535217 536208
      538200 538194 536182 535175 532168 530163 528156 524148
      520138 517137 516145 517148 514147 510145 501138 485125
      480124 477124 473122 469123 466122 461123 458119 457115
      460114 467115 466112 463107 462104 457101 455096 453094
      450093 443092 438091 437092 436095 434094 430091 427091
      428093 430099 428103 422105 422108 423111 422113 420115
      419120 418128 417134 412146 410150 406153 400159 401162
      405161 411155 415151 419146 424144 428145 428148 429154
      429161 424159 421159 421161 425169 428176 425181 423188
      421193 415197 410200 409203 409207 407209 400206 392202
      385200 387203 394211 394217 396218 397222 395224 391225
      385225 382227 380230 380234 378241 374246 369247 361252
      359252 357255 357259 359262 360265 358269 356275 360278
      360283 362286 370284 391279 411276 420274 426273 428272
      435268 443265 461256 470251 475251 479254 483256 485261
      489273 490284 496292 500294 504295 511295
 0.01 528970 528960 527955 521951 518952 517954 512967 507980
      503993 500000 499008 498014 499018 501019 503022 506022
      511019 518009 523997 526981 527974 528970
 0.01 475197 476194 474193 473193 471192 469192 468191 466191
      465191 464191 463192 461193 461195 461198 462199 462201
      463201 465202 466203 467202 468200 469199 470198 472198
      474198 475197
 0.01 482864 480852 476842 474840 469840 467844 466848 463859
      462871 461876 461883 465893 470888 475882 479874 482864
 0.01 465129 464127 463124 461124 460126 461128 463128 463129
      464130 465129
 0.01 455127 455124 453123 449125 445123 441120 436120 432123
      430128 430135 434136 437134 440132 444129 449131 453129
      455127
 0.01 449080 450078 450075 448075 446072 445072 443072 441072
      443072 444075 446075 448077 448078 449080 449080
 0.01 400945 398940 395937 391933 387931 378927 373927 368929
      364938 365944 368948 369952 368954 366958 366961 369962
      373963 386963 387961 391961 393959 396954 398949 400945
 0.01 388790 387787 384787 379787 375784 371783 366792 361801
      356810 351820 350825 354824 359820 361816 365811 369809
      376802 383795 388790
 0.01 306042 306040 304036 304034 303032 301032 299033 297035
      297040 299038 300040 302040 304044 306042
 0.01 292027 291025 289022 287022 285022 283026 282028 282032
      282036 284039 286039 288039 286037 286035 286032 288029
      290029 292027
 0.01 281080 276073 269066 261059 254053 247047 242046 239047
      237052 239057 244065 251071 259078 268081 279082 281080
 0.01 279980 279976 277976 272976 259980 248983 235983 232993
      232998 233000 237003 249007 253007 255006 257004 257000
      256998 257995 260991 270986 279980
 0.25 533203 535196 535190 533181 530173 526166 521160 516154
      510149 505146 497142 492137 487131 481129 472127 471135
      469139 467141 460139 453142 450144 446143 441141 439139
      436140 436146 434149 433156 438162 442166 446173 449182
      451185 453185 458184 464181 467179 470181 476186 482191
      484193 487192 489189 489184 495188 498187 500185 501183
      503184 505188 510190 512194 517199 521205 526209 531208
      533203
 0.25 516267 516258 513250 509235 505224 501212 496205 490201
      481202 473206 467209 464209 461208 459210 453213 448214
      441213 432212 424203 415211 410213 406212 402212 400216
      401218 402222 401225 395228 390230 387235 385242 382248
      379253 378256 380258 386258 392262 397264 402263 423259
      435255 444249 453245 463243 469241 472239 475240 477240
      473235 471231 472227 474226 485226 492230 497235 500242
      496247 492244 487239 485240 484243 487248 498274 503279
      507280 511276 511272 510268 508260 509260 513266 516267
 0.25 480145 480142 478142 477142 475142 473142 471143 470143
      471143 473145 475146 476147 477147 478146 480146 480145
 0.25 446111 445109 444105 444102 444100 443098 439097 437100
      437102 439105 435107 433109 436112 440111 443112 446111
 0.25 419683 419673 416663 413658 409654 405652 399651 389652
      382655 376658 367666 355683 340702 334710 328719 317741
      313750 311755 310760 311768 315773 320770 324767 329764
      334762 339762 342767 340796 341804 345807 349804 352800
      364778 368774 374773 379774 386774 389773 392770 393767
      388764 383762 381760 381753 381750 383748 388750 393752
      397758 395764 397768 403768 406767 409765 412762 414757
      415750 414742 412736 412728 412722 413714 416703 419683
 0.25 410794 409787 406786 402787 400790 397793 393794 387797
      382802 378809 378812 382811 387806 394803 401800 407797
      410794
 0.50 530194 531187 530181 526173 518160 512154 506150 493142
      488134 485132 481132 476131 472136 471139 473140 478140
      483142 485146 485149 483151 478151 474149 468145 463143
      461144 459149 457151 454153 450151 442148 440144 438144
      435152 436157 439160 453171 452167 453164 456161 462157
      466165 467168 470170 478169 484176 486177 489176 493183
      497182 499178 504176 506179 507184 512189 519193 524198
      528197 530194
 0.50 499227 500221 500216 498211 496209 488205 481206 470212
      464212 461213 459215 433217 428218 425220 422221 424224
      426228 424232 422231 421227 418228 416226 415216 412215
      406217 390243 390249 394251 398253 400256 411255 424253
      430252 435249 441244 447241 452240 459240 462237 462232
      467226 471222 474221 478222 490224 495227 499227
 0.50 463179 463176 463175 461174 460175 459175 458177 457178
      457179 457182 459182 460182 462181 462180 463179
 0.50 428209 427208 426206 424206 423207 424209 425210 427210
      428209
 0.50 415679 412666 409660 406658 399656 390657 384658 379661
      371667 366673 361680 338709 333717 328725 321741 317750
      317756 319759 326758 335757 339754 342753 346753 349754
      348759 345779 345783 349787 354783 356780 362772 365764
      369742 372735 375734 378734 381735 385735 387734 390730
      392725 394720 397718 398723 398728 400731 413694 415684
      415679
 1.00 509170 509169 508167 508166 506166 504165 504166 503168
      504170 506171 507172 509172 509170
 1.00 491217 491214 489212 487211 486211 484211 482211 481212
      479212 478213 477213 476215 476217 478218 480218 481219
      483219 485220 486220 488219 490219 491217
 1.00 494174 495171 494169 493166 491165 488163 487161 484158
      482158 480160 482163 484165 486167 489170 491171 493173
      494174
 1.00 490139 489137 487135 486135 484136 485138 486138 487140
      488141 490139
 1.00 474159 473157 473156 472154 472153 471152 469152 467155
      467157 468160 470162 471162 473161 474159
 1.00 453223 452220 450219 449219 447219 445220 443220 442218
      440219 439219 440221 440222 441223 443224 443225 444226
      446227 447226 448226 449225 451225 451224 453223
 1.00 451158 449158 448157 447158 448158 449159 451158
 1.00 429245 428240 425237 422234 416233 412231 410226 408232
      409237 406238 410241 415242 420245 422245 427244 429245
      429245
 1.00 412221 412219 412218 411219 410220 409220 408223 409224
      411223 412221
 1.00 402242 403240 402237 401237 400236 399237 398238 397238
      398239 399241 401241 402242 402242
 1.00 405670 403664 398662 392662 385664 379667 374670 367678
      354696 341713 335723 332733 331739 334743 338745 344744
      349742 356741 359743 363740 369730 378725 380711 382705
      384701 400686 402681 404677 405670
 1.50 422238 421238 419237 418237 417237 417238 419238 421239
      422238
 1.50 397670 395666 391667 384669 376673 370679 361694 356701
      350707 344715 340722 338732 340735 343737 348736 351733
      354733 358734 360735 362733 365730 371725 374721 375714
      376705 378701 381697 385695 388691 396676 397670
 2.00 391676 389674 385674 380677 371685 365695 361700 359706
      353715 350720 348727 351728 353725 357721 361717 366714
      369712 371709 372704 379694 387686 391676
 2.00 350716 350715 348716 346718 346719 347720 348719 349718
      350716 350716

$$





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