Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 250924
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
523 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 25/1200 UTC THRU MAY 28/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

...NORTHERN PLAINS / MIDWEST / GREAT LAKES....

WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MESOSCALE AREAS OF MODERATE AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SYNOPTIC ORGANIZATION AND
PREDICTABILITY APPEAR GREATEST OVER NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PRODUCING A
NICELY DEFINED DEFORMATION AXIS OVER WESTERN/NORTHERN ND AND
ADJACENT EASTERN MONTANA...WELL WEST OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF CAME IN LINE WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS REGARDING LOCATION OF AN AXIS OF HALF TO ONE INCH OR A
LITTLE GREATER AMOUNTS STRADDLING WILLISTON AND MINOT. HEIGHT
FALLS WILL ALSO EXTEND EASTWARD...BRINGING A PROGRESSIVE BAND OR
RAIN/THUNDER THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN ND...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS ALONG THE ND/MN BORDER. THE
FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD RESULT IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN
THIS AREA AND A RATHER UNSETTLED SWATH OF CONVECTION THAT WILL BE
OCCURRING FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS LATTER
SWATH THAT IS THE SOURCE OF MUCH OF THE FORECAST DIFFICULTY OVER
THIS REGION...WITH AN ARRAY OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...OUTFLOWS...AND
MCVS. ON THE LARGE SCALE...A LEAD SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING SHOULD YIELD ORGANIZED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. ALSO EXPECT AN MCV TO
EMANATE FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IN NE/IA...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL TO AID CONVECTION ARCHING DOWN THROUGH IL/MO DURING THE
DAY AND EVENING. THE BETTER MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THESE FEATURES
APPEARED TO BE IN THE 00Z GFS AND WRF-ARW...ALTHOUGH WE REFERRED
BACK TO THE 12Z WRF-ARW AND WPC CONTINUITY AT TIMES.


...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD...

THE LATE MAY REGIME OF STRONG CAPE...LOCALLY STRONG CAPPING...AND
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FORECAST CHALLENGES.
TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 12 C AT 700 MB COVERED MUCH OF TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN HALF OF OK/KS. A PREFERRED STORM/MCS TRACK HAD BEEN ON THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS WARM MID LEVEL CAP...AND
EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY OF CONVECTION HAD BEEN SHEDDING DEPRESSIONS IN
THE HEIGHT FIELD DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEE
NO REASON FOR THIS PATTERN TO BREAK TODAY. THE LEADING
DEPRESSION/TROUGH HAD PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN IN AR/MO TUESDAY...AND
THERE ARE SHORT TERM SIGNALS THAT CONVECTION MAY IGNITE AGAIN WITH
THIS FEATURE OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AND ADJACENT STATES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONVERGENT MID LEVEL FLOW AND LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE
INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY WITH THE SLOWLY MIGRATING UPPER
PATTERN...SUCH THAT CHANCES FOR RAIN SPREAD TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE HEAVIER RAIN AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL SHOULD LAG A BIT...BACK ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE
AND BACK WESTWARD TO THE CAPPING INVERSION...BASICALLY CENTRAL
OK/KS. ALSO EXPECT A MORE ACTIVE DAY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS
THE SUB-TROPICAL JET STRENGTHENS AND HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH.
CRAFTING QPF FOR THIS SITUATION WAS QUITE A CHALLENGE...WITH NO
PARTICULAR MODEL BEING ABLE TO PREDICT MORE THAN ONE OR TWO OF THE
VARIOUS OBSERVED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. THE QPF WAS
STITCHED TOGETHER USING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...HRRR TRENDS...EARLY
ON...AND TRANSITIONING TO A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND
WRF-ARW...ALONG WITH EXTRAPOLATION / PATTERN RECOGNITION IN AREAS
WHERE THE MODELS WERE NOT SATISFACTORY. ONE SUCH AREA WAS THE
MULTI-STATE AREA CONNECTING KS/OK/AR/MO...AND ALSO SOUTHEAST
OK...WHERE MODELS WERE NOT PERFORMING WELL.


...WESTERN U.S...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN MAKES SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY...WITH
BOTH THE LOW ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER WITH CANADA AND THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. PRESSING EASTWARD.
HEIGHT RISES OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SHOULD PRODUCE A
MORE STABLE VERTICAL PROFILES...WITH DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS BEING
LESS NUMEROUS AND LESS PRODUCTIVE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. THE MOST
CONCENTRATED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PREDICTED TO BE
ACROSS NEVADA AND INTO MOUNTAIN RANGES OF WESTERN WYOMING...WITH
JUST THE RIGHT COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND NEUTRAL TO
POSITIVE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE QUITE LOW...BUT SHARP HEIGHT
FALLS COULD LEAD TO A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
FOR QPF...WPC USED A COMBINATION OF CONTINUITY...NDFD...AND OUR
DOWNSCALED IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE...ALONG WITH SOME PREFERENCE FOR THE
00Z WRF-ARW.

DAYS 2/3...


...WEST...

THE PATTERN OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEMS THAT HAVE PERSISTED
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SHORTWAVES ROTATING WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING VIA DIURNAL HEATING.  THE QPF FORECAST HERE
IS GENERALLY A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF ACROSS THIS REGION WITH
LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN.


...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION AND POINTS EAST...

AB ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE HIGHLY CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW WITH THE DETAILS ON THE
EXACT QPF MAGNITUDE/PLACEMENT IN ANY 6 HOUR PERIOD...BUT HAVE A
BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL AREAS OF CONCERN FOR HEAVY AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ON A 24 HOUR SCALE. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET RESULTING IN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WILL RESULT IN A HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. WILL
DESCRIBE THESE HIGHER THREAT AREAS IN THE PARAGRAPHS TO FOLLOW.

DAY 2 (12Z THU-12Z FRI)

ONE AREA OF CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NE...SOUTHWEST IA...NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO. AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...EXPECT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH TOWARDS THE KS/NE
BORDER...WITH THIS FRONT BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH...A VERY FAVORABLE 300 MB PATTERN WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE
AND ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND LIFT UP AND OVER
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO LOOKING AT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND
THE REGION SITUATED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET RESULTING IN
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. THUS CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION INTO THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN TRAINING OF HEAVY
RAINFALL SEEMS PROBABLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE
THE FRONT SETS UP AND THUS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL
IS. THE GFS/UKMET/GEM/NAM ARE ALL FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF.
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AND HAS STRONG SUPPORT
FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ALSO MORE OFTEN THAN NOT IN THE
CONVECTIVE SEASON THE FURTHER SOUTH BOUNDARY ENDS UP VERIFYING.
FOR THESE REASONS CONTINUED TO STAY WITH AN AXIS CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...FOCUSING THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG/NEAR
THE KS/NE BORDER EAST TOWARDS THE MO/IA BORDER. LOOKING AT AMOUNTS
IN THE 1-3" RANGE ACROSS THIS AREA...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 3-5"
(POSSIBLY MORE IF GREATER TRAINING OCCURS). CONSIDERED AN UPGRADE
TO A MODERATE RISK GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SETUP. HOWEVER AS WE HAVE
SEEN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...IS HARD TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT DETAILS
OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS FAR OUT. THUS THOUGHT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTED IN THE EXACT AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF THAT OPTED TO
JUST KEEP THE SLIGHT RISK.

THE OTHER REGION OF GREATER CONCERN ON DAY 2 IS ACROSS TEXAS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ON DAY 2. THE DAY
STARTS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE...WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY THIS FEATURE.
UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DIFFLUENT THROUGH THE DAY...AND AS THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE. CONVECTION LIKELY DEPENDENT ON OUTFLOWS AND
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. ITS NOT UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT THAT CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN A SQUALL LINE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE AS THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT
OVERSPREADS IT. THIS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE STATE INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. MOISTURE PARAMETERS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ON DAY 2 ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
TX WHERE CONVECTION OCCURS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
1.5"-2" (1-2.5 SD ABOVE AVERAGE). ALSO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL OF SLOW MOVING/BACKBUILDING CONVECTION.
KEPT THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AREA ON DAY 2.

DAY 3 ((12Z FRI-12Z SAT)

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE EXPECTATION IS FOR A CONVECTIVE LINE TO
FORM ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECTATION IS FOR
THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE STATE INTO
FRIDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION MAY END UP PROPAGATING ORE
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING CORFIDI VECTORS. MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE FORCED MORE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD...BEING CLOSER TO THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE. WOULD
EXPECT THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO CONTINUE TROUGH DAY 3 ACROSS
EASTERN TX INTO EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR/LA WITH THIS FEATURE.
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST TX INTO OK/AR
WILL HAVE THE BETTER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ALONG WITH THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS WILL STILL HAVE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND WILL HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT POTENTIAL EAST/WEST
ALIGNMENT RESULTING IN TRAINING. THUS WILL INCLUDE THE ENTIRE AREA
IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK. OVERALL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...SUGGESTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG AN AXIS FROM EAST TX INTO EASTERN OK AND WESTERN
AR. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR MEANS
FOR QPF.

A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...AND ALSO ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MOISTURE
FLUX INTO THE REGION. THUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH DAY 3. ALTHOUGH MORE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. ALSO GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ALSO A
QUESTION ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT. MODEL QPF SIGNALS
FROM THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO NOT AS IMPRESSIVE
FURTHER NORTH. SO WHILE STILL THINK A MARGINAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT
EXISTS ON DAY 3 ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO/NE/SD/IA/MN/WI...THREAT
APPEARS BELOW THE SLIGHT RISK THRESHOLD AT THIS TIME.

ACROSS THE EAST COAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SEEMS POSSIBLE
UNDER THE WEAK FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE...MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THOUGHT THE GFS WAS TOO WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY WITH ITS
DEPICTION...WITH THE ECMWF PROBABLY TOO WEAK/DRY. OPTED FOR A
SOLUTION IN BETWEEN...WHICH WAS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SREF.


BURKE/CHENARD




24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 532195 535178 533168 528158 521151 500145 492141 492137
      492132 486124 483112 482107 482100 484098 486093 487088
      497074 501070 501063 503049 508041 512033 517025 523016
      524010 523004 519995 516983 517970 520908 520892 519886
      517879 509862 505853 500846 487831 476817 469811 462807
      453804 446803 450785 453777 455773 460764 465755 468752
      470747 477741 482739 484737 499723 503718 503711 502703
      500699 501687 500679 498675 493665 491662 487660 479656
      472648 469645 464647 459649 455651 446655 440660 437662
      434667 430674 428679 426686 431690 440692 449692 451694
      450696 448701 443708 440713 438718 437724 437731 436734
      438741 436751 434757 432761 430764 431772 430793 403808
      395814 392818 390824 385831 381823 377814 373810 370810
      364816 360822 354830 351835 349841 348846 350849 355851
      356853 355857 354861 351866 348873 342882 341887 341894
      330926 317941 312949 310953 312954 320951 329946 332947
      333953 332957 332962 333967 336970 339972 344972 351973
      355975 364978 372983 378983 382982 385984 388987 392995
      404012 409017 416013 418010 419001 416990 415983 418978
      423971 425967 428969 431971 433972 433975 429983 424995
      422001 422006 427015 431022 432027 435031 439033 441035
      443032 444019 447016 450013 458011 459003 461002 461006
      463011 463017 462025 460030 457037 452047 448055 446059
      441057 435063 432067 431074 428079 425082 421085 418083
      411086 405094 399101 393107 387113 378119 375121 377123
      381124 386122 392120 397120 402121 407124 407130
 0.01 407130 408133 406137 402137 398135 392135 388139 371154
      366167 362173 358177 355181 353182 355185 364193 368197
      373201 384207 395214 400216 404212 401207 404199 404192
      405189 408189 412193 417197 421200 425197 429193 434190
      435186 432185 429187 427188 423187 420182 418179 418174
      422171 426167 431166 429161 425160 418148 418143 420141
      422136 426131 432130 432138 432142 433146 436151 441155
      446160 448165 450170 455174 458175 460173 460169 455157
      454154 455150 457148 459150 460153 462151 465154 467160
      471166 475169 478170 481172 485176 491178 493177 496178
      501178 507177 510178 511181 513188 514196 517203 519205
      522206 527204 531201 532195
 0.01 505234 504230 502226 500223 499219 495212 492210 488210
      484208 479208 475212 473215 475218 477221 481224 486225
      492230 494232 498234 502235 505234
 0.01 467242 467240 467239 465238 463237 462236 460236 458235
      457235 456236 455237 453237 452238 451240 452242 452243
      454244 455244 457245 459245 460244 462245 464245 465244
      466243 467242
 0.01 478072 479069 479067 477065 476066 474067 472067 471068
      470069 469069 467070 467071 465071 464072 465074 467075
      468075 470075 472076 473077 475078 477076 477074 478072
 0.01 367133 368124 368121 367119 363118 356117 349116 347116
      345120 344122 346125 349128 352135 356134 358132 362132
      365135 367133
 0.01 347194 347192 348189 347189 345189 344191 344193 345194
      346194 347194
 0.01 364987 362985 357984 353985 350989 346991 344995 344998
      347000 351000 355996 358994 360992 364987 364987
 0.01 340177 340174 337173 333171 332170 328168 326167 326170
      326172 329173 331175 334178 336178 338179 340177
 0.01 321999 321990 319985 315981 314973 313966 310962 303961
      296962 284964 278966 273968 264974 259977 255981 251986
      249990 244000 244006 242012 241017 241021 242024 246027
      252029 257031 264032 272032 277031 284031 287033 288035
      291040 297038 301036 304034 305032 312024 317011 321999
 0.01 267782 266777 263774 260772 256771 247771 238773 234774
      231776 229785 227803 226806 227810 229815 231817 234826
      238834 241834 245832 248825 251817 259819 264817 267814
      265810 261804 264798 267782
 0.25 508027 509020 509013 509006 509998 510982 508971 506960
      502953 495948 492946 490942 489929 489925 490918 490909
      488897 486892 487887 492880 493875 492869 490861 485854
      479848 466840 461836 453838 449838 446836 443833 440830
      437821 435821 432825 426831 420835 413841 408847 399861
      396863 392864 384865 380865 377867 375877 377907 373913
      367919 364922 363927 360936 346936 341940 340946 343949
      346950 349949 358945 366949 376948 385946 391951 395959
      396964 398967 404971 407974 410975 412973 413967 413961
      414955 416951 420944 424941 428941 433942 436945 440949
      446969 450978 453981 456982 460985 462988 466997 469006
      470016 469027 465039 464043 466048 470050 474050 483051
      487051 491051 497046 503039 506033 508027
 0.25 480680 480675 478671 476669 474668 472670 470672 469675
      467678 466681 465685 467689 469690 472690 476689 478686
      480683 480680
 0.25 452097 452094 451092 447089 445090 442088 439085 436084
      434085 436090 437095 437102 439107 442104 446101 448098
      452097
 0.25 451078 451077 450075 450074 449073 448072 446071 445071
      443072 444075 446077 446078 448079 448080 449081 451080
      451079 451078
 0.25 379194 379192 378189 376187 373186 370184 366184 364184
      365186 367189 369190 372192 374194 377195 379194
 0.25 369889 366885 363880 362876 359875 354878 350881 347886
      346890 347894 350899 352905 355907 358907 363903 365896
      368891 369889
 0.25 307009 308999 305992 301986 293983 290979 283980 276982
      270986 264990 264997 275005 272007 268005 265004 262005
      258011 258014 259017 262019 267021 271019 276020 283018
      292020 297020 301019 305014 307009
 0.25 255789 255785 254781 248781 242783 237786 235792 235800
      237808 240812 245811 251808 252802 254796 255789
 0.50 505019 505008 505997 505978 500964 487957 478949 473944
      470938 464924 462916 460912 460908 461900 459890 458879
      457876 454874 446874 440876 437874 437868 438861 445859
      446857 444853 443849 442844 439838 435833 433833 432835
      428841 423847 419852 414856 410861 406868 403875 402883
      402892 404901 406909 407910 411909 417905 417910 416914
      415917 412919 408919 407920 403928 402938 401946 399955
      399959 403961 406953 414941 421930 425926 431928 435933
      440938 444944 446953 447961 450969 453974 460976 468988
      472994 474000 475010 474019 469037 469044 474046 486045
      493042 497038 501034 503029 505019
 0.50 401917 399912 396910 391909 386911 382913 382920 382925
      379929 370925 366929 365934 365941 368944 372942 377940
      379937 383938 388939 391937 393927 400920 401917
 0.50 361896 361892 360887 359884 358882 354882 352884 351886
      349890 351894 353896 354899 355901 358901 360898 361896
 0.50 300008 299000 299995 298991 296989 292989 284986 277989
      273993 279997 285999 287008 291013 295013 298011 300008
 0.50 251792 251790 250788 249788 247789 245790 243791 242793
      242794 241795 241797 242799 242801 242803 243804 245805
      246803 246802 247800 248800 249798 249796 250794 251792
      251792
 1.00 502008 498000 497994 495989 492986 489987 485997 482009
      480022 477032 475038 477041 481039 484037 491032 496026
      500015 502008
 1.00 481977 479972 477969 474965 471962 467959 466959 463964
      465969 467974 470974 474974 477977 481977 481977
 1.00 450923 450906 445896 437891 433889 430885 424876 420873
      416877 414882 415887 418891 422893 426897 426905 427913
      428915 431916 435917 439921 442924 448925 450923
 1.00 411938 410937 409936 409935 409936 408938 409939 410938
      411938
 1.50 497013 497010 496010 495009 493009 492008 490008 488010
      487012 486013 486015 486017 486020 486021 487022 488023
      489023 490023 491023 493021 494020 495019 495018 496016
      496015 497013
 1.50 441911 441910 441911 441911

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 544163 540138 534131 531128 528126 519126 514125 511123
      500119 494114 487106 482096 483090 485087 493081 505074
      512069 514063 517059 521051 523049 523045 523036 522031
      523024 525011 528999 528982 528974 528970 530965 530952
      530937 530927 531921 537904 541869 541852 542847 541839
      539805 539799 537792 534782 529771 531758 532752 530747
      526738 526733 523726 520720 519716 517713 513703 511697
      508695 493689 485686 483685 479686 449708 443714 437721
      435726 436733 434746 429743 425743 423747 420750 414757
      406764 391771 378785 371792 366800 357814 351823 346831
      341838 341843 343845 350845 354842 359835 363829 373828
      377820 382815 385829 387832 387836 386840 383852 379854
      373854 365858 359864 353870 349880 347895 318916 301926
      298934 294941 289950 283957 279964 272968 267970 261970
      255970 253974 249994 252003 254009 251015 247023 246028
      249030 264039 277032 281031 285030 290028 293029 297029
      302028 308028 311027 322026 327025 331023 337018 345013
      351009 357008 363008 372008 376009 379013 378020 377028
      372035 369039 369044 365056 360063 362067 365072 371078
      375086 376091 372095 371097 369094 368090 361085 357084
      354084 353086 351091 351097 356102 363105 369105 373103
      375101 377104 373114 368117 365120 365124 371125 373136
      373143 375148 377153 376156 373156 364154 361156 362159
      365164 368167 372168 376167 379168 380172 379175 376175
      370174 365174 360174 357176 354180 357184 364190 371195
      380201 385206 395208 399208 397205 393197
 0.01 393197 389192 385190 386187 388185 391181 395178 400176
      411174 415172 418168 421164 422155 423139 427137 431133
      433131 434135 434141 434150 436155 441159 446161 450163
      455162 473154 478153 484153 486154 487156 487164 484170
      481174 477185 484195 487200 488203 486205 477208 469214
      449219 448224 453226 455229 454231 452240 460244 460248
      461250 464254 470257 475256 479254 482250 487252 490258
      497267 499272 502275 505271 508264 520242 525232 527226
      529216 530210 531208 533198 537185 541172 544163
 0.01 478082 478079 477077 475076 473076 472076 470076 468075
      467078 467080 468082 470083 471084 473084 475085 476084
      478082
 0.01 473996 473985 472974 469959 466952 464944 460937 456945
      454952 451959 449966 445973 443981 440986 438988 436993
      438002 451002 457998 462996 468997 471999 473996
 0.01 465011 463009 461008 460010 460011 458011 456010 454013
      456015 458015 459015 461015 463013 465011
 0.01 456015 454013 453013 451013 449015 451017 453017 454017
      456015
 0.01 451017 449015 447015 446017 447019 449019 451017
 0.01 390096 389093 387094 385095 387097 388097 390096
 0.01 387097 385095 383095 382097 383099 385099 387097
 0.01 356120 357114 355111 350108 346105 345101 344094 342089
      339087 336086 335088 335094 336097 339104 342109 347115
      350121 354122 356120
 0.01 291809 289806 285802 277797 264784 272779 274777 274773
      270770 266768 261767 255769 253770 252767 247768 243770
      236777 233780 231784 228795 225805 226815 233822 241822
      246821 250817 254815 258811 260807 262805 265805 272805
      276806 284808 291809
 0.25 532170 532157 531144 529140 525139 517139 509139 505142
      503145 500157 496166 494181 497190 500201 501207 500214
      495221 492225 495228 507228 509230 512230 514224 516211
      518204 520199 525190 529181 532170
 0.25 522913 523904 522896 520881 518867 517858 515853 504838
      499829 493822 490819 486817 482819 478823 471830 469833
      467839 467846 469851 472855 476857 479862 482864 485868
      486875 488890 487899 487907 488915 490919 495921 500921
      511919 520916 522913
 0.25 514032 515022 514014 513006 510000 507996 503990 500985
      499982 495981 492986 490993 490010 490020 489030 488038
      488046 491052 496055 502054 506051 510045 512040 514032
 0.25 432094 431092 429091 428091 427091 428093 428094 429096
      431095 432094
 0.25 437945 437932 435924 427909 423901 421897 420892 417884
      413878 407873 403867 396865 392863 389865 387867 385867
      380867 373871 370878 365885 361891 358899 354904 348909
      338921 331924 325928 320934 315937 309941 303946 292957
      288962 284968 275979 271985 269988 269994 270998 272002
      276009 282013 287016 296018 303021 309021 317018 324014
      329008 334003 339999 345995 353994 363994 368995 372994
      378992 382992 385995 389001 391005 390011 386029 378043
      374049 373055 376057 379060 380064 379071 377075 378079
      381077 383074 385071 389070 396069 403064 406062 408058
      409049 411045 412040 412028 411019 412011 415001 417992
      421983 424975 428969 434958 436950 437945
 0.25 409108 410105 410103 409102 408102 407103 406105 405105
      407107 407108 409108 409108
 0.25 357830 356829 355829 353830 354833 355833 356832 357832
      357830
 0.25 256787 256785 254784 250782 246782 243784 239787 238789
      236794 237798 239801 243803 246802 250799 252796 254792
      256788 256787
 0.50 523179 524176 523173 522172 520173 518175 517177 516179
      515182 516185 517186 518185 519185 521183 522181 523180
      523179
 0.50 504034 504032 505029 505026 505024 505021 505019 505016
      505014 505011 505010 503010 503011 502013 501016 501018
      501021 500023 500026 500029 500031 500034 500036 502036
      504035 504034
 0.50 423961 424953 424945 423937 422931 417921 413917 408915
      402915 398917 394920 391924 387936 382947 377956 375968
      363969 361974 362976 382976 385979 388983 394993 398002
      400004 404003 407000 410996 412991 416980 419975 421970
      423961
 0.50 406030 405024 401023 398022 399016 397011 395011 393013
      391025 387036 385041 381046 379050 379053 381055 385057
      388061 391066 394066 399063 402058 400051 400044 400040
      401037 404033 406030
 0.50 399899 400894 399890 399885 399881 397878 395877 391878
      390880 386881 385884 386888 387890 388894 390897 392899
      394900 397901 399899
 0.50 376893 376891 376889 376887 376886 374884 372885 370887
      369889 368891 368894 367895 365896 367896 369896 371896
      372896 374896 375896 376894 376893
 0.50 363921 363916 361914 359914 357916 355916 352919 351921
      350925 350930 352933 355932 357930 358927 360925 362923
      363921
 0.50 346976 346970 345967 343965 341957 343950 344944 344940
      343936 337935 332937 323943 316950 306954 300957 296960
      288966 283975 279978 277983 275991 278997 284006 288009
      295009 302017 305019 311018 319013 327005 332996 336993
      341991 344987 345983 346976
 0.50 247790 247789 246788 245788 245789 243790 242791 242793
      244794 245794 246792 247791 247790
 1.00 414970 415954 414946 412942 409937 405935 400936 396938
      393943 390947 388953 387959 388965 389970 394981 396986
      399990 401992 404992 407987 412977 414970
 1.00 334982 335976 334974 331974 324978 323974 323969 319962
      314962 311963 304962 297966 292970 288973 286976 283983
      281987 282989 284997 286001 289004 293004 296002 300001
      304002 304013 306015 310015 316011 322005 326997 333983
      334982
 1.50 411970 411965 410959 410949 405945 402942 400943 395949
      393956 392962 392968 395975 398983 400986 402986 407980
      410973 411970
 1.50 330982 330979 327980 321983 316983 314980 316977 317971
      314970 312971 307968 303967 299968 290976 287982 287987
      290989 296991 300991 302992 308995 308004 309013 312013
      314011 318007 322001 324995 328988 330982
 1.50 297994 297992 295992 293992 291992 290992 288993 288994
      287995 287997 288999 289000 291000 293000 295998 297996
      297995 297994
 2.00 407973 407966 408959 407953 405949 402947 399949 397954
      396959 395965 396972 398975 401979 405976 407973
 2.00 323992 323988 321987 317988 315989 313991 312994 311996
      310000 310005 312007 314007 316006 318004 320001 321999
      322994 323992
 3.00 319994 319992 317990 315992 314994 314996 314998 313000
      315002 317001 317000 317999 318996 319996 319994

24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 548129 549124 547122 543118 539115 535110 527102 524097
      524089 525072 525062 526057 527053 530050 532047 533042
      533034 529011 525991 522980 522976 523973 523965 523936
      523897 524887 522882 519868 515859 514853 515848 514840
      515834 514817 513811 512807 509797 503774 491731 488724
      487720 486716 484697 483690 480685 475682 473680 472675
      470670 468677 465679 464677 461676 458672 455669 452668
      450667 447667 445668 443671 438679 432696 424710 419726
      417732 413736 405744 401748 398753 393762 390766 387769
      382777 376785 371792 352821 345836 344840 345845 346849
      345853 345857 347859 350863 353862 357859 372842 375839
      378835 383828 387819 390816 394817 397819 400822 403824
      403831 402840 399851 396858 392863 391867 380877 369881
      363882 357883 349890 342899 331911 324917 317923 305933
      298937 294941 270964 263972 262978 262982 260984 253990
      250992 255994 261995 265995 269997 275997 286000 297001
      314006 319006 323004 329000 338996 345992 351989 355988
      358989 358991 360998 360006 359023 358031 358035 357038
      356046 356051 365070 375084 385095 386098 383097 380094
      376094 376097 378106 376111 376116 374120 375124 375127
      377128 380128 425123 433119 438120 439126 439133 441138
      442143 445147 455161 463171 466175 469176 469179 468187
      466192 465199 463204 456211 446216 439221 451240 470246
      474249 477254 480259 484262 487260 489256 489250 491254
      497268 500269 505269 509269 511264 513258 514250 516246
      518238 520232 522225 525217
 0.01 525217 526209 528204 531197 532192 533187 535179 537175
      538168 540162 541157 543149 544144 546139 547131 548129
 0.01 391199 388192 383184 379181 376179 368174 359171 355171
      357174 360178 362181 365190 368194 372196 380201 384203
      387202 391199
 0.01 363747 361742 357741 349738 334734 316732 308731 300732
      288734 283739 277753 272772 272777 268779 264779 259780
      250784 242788 237789 234791 234795 236798 245811 246813
      249815 255818 264823 272825 278828 282827 283825 284818
      286813 288804 304806 316805 321804 324802 331799 337794
      344788 347784 347779 348770 351762 354756 358752 363747
 0.25 518183 519169 520159 517154 514156 509157 502160 496164
      485169 483174 483179 485187 488194 489203 488210 486213
      483218 488224 494223 500220 505216 510209 512202 518183
 0.25 513006 513000 512997 507992 500988 494986 486987 484991
      484997 486007 490015 495019 501018 508014 512009 513006
 0.25 506109 506103 505099 501091 497088 493086 486085 476083
      470083 461087 457093 453103 450111 446119 444128 445133
      448136 452136 457135 467125 474118 479114 482112 486112
      494113 500114 503114 506109
 0.25 474219 473217 473216 472215 470215 468216 466216 466217
      464217 463218 462218 461219 460220 459222 460224 462225
      463225 465224 467223 469223 471222 472221 473221 474219
 0.25 485839 484830 482824 480820 476817 472817 471822 472830
      471833 470835 454838 451846 447845 444847 439849 436852
      432856 430862 426869 423880 419887 412893 406894 399894
      374895 366897 358901 353905 348911 343916 335921 318930
      304939 299943 294949 290956 288964 287971 287979 289983
      292987 298992 303993 309993 318991 325988 338982 348978
      353977 359976 367975 376973 381972 386978 392986 394988
      395993 395004 394012 394020 394027 393033 391037 388040
      381044 377046 374048 373052 376054 382058 395059 401058
      404056 408048 412038 418023 420018 423013 427007 450978
      455971 460966 469954 473950 474942 476929 478903 477890
      477882 478875 479865 482857 484846 485839
 0.25 388795 388794 386794 385795 384796 384797 384800 385800
      386799 387797 388795 388795
 0.50 511188 512183 512178 509173 504169 499171 495175 493179
      494184 495189 496197 496208 500209 504205 507199 510191
      511188
 0.50 478107 480103 480099 477094 471090 465095 462098 460104
      458109 455112 450119 448124 451128 457123 463116 466114
      470113 474111 477109 478107
 0.50 460925 461918 461912 458903 453899 451892 448887 442885
      436888 432892 421904 417908 411911 408915 406917 403918
      393911 375910 374907 371905 364908 356917 352920 346922
      332928 320934 310940 301946 296952 294955 293959 294976
      294980 296983 300987 307989 313988 328983 339978 344975
      348971 354968 359966 383953 387953 388956 391962 398972
      402978 403980 400983 399986 400988 404995 405998 403001
      401008 402014 407017 411016 413012 416004 415996 415989
      414982 415977 417977 420980 424979 430975 433972 434967
      436959 439952 442948 447946 454943 457938 460925
 0.50 420935 419930 418933 414935 410935 407935 405940 403947
      405956 408963 406973 409973 410968 412959 414950 416940
      420935
 1.00 368929 367923 365922 362923 359924 354925 344928 335931
      326935 319940 310945 303949 299952 297956 296960 296964
      299970 300975 304983 308983 311982 316980 324977 335975
      343972 349965 355958 361950 363947 365943 367934 368929
 1.50 361936 361932 360931 356929 348930 338933 332938 326939
      322941 323948 319950 315948 310949 307951 300957 299961
      300964 302970 303974 305977 310978 317972 319964 323960
      326957 330957 331962 330968 331971 336972 339971 344968
      346964 350956 352952 355949 358947 360943 361936
 2.00 358941 358935 356932 349932 343934 338935 336937 332943
      332949 334951 339956 337960 340962 343960 346952 352948
      357943 358941
 2.00 316960 317956 316952 314951 310951 308952 307955 305958
      303960 302962 305964 306966 305971 308972 310971 312969
      314965 315962 316960
 3.00 345945 346943 345941 344941 343940 341939 340939 339938
      338939 337941 338943 338945 339947 340947 341948 343948
      344947 345947 345945

$$




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