Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 190653
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 19/1200 UTC THRU AUG 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AMPLIFICATION TO THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION DAY 1 AS HEIGHT
FALLS DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANDING AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS IN A
REGION OF STRENGTHENING UPPER DIFFLUENCE--STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING
PW VALUES.  WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS---THE
CONFIDENCE BECOMES LESS WITH RESPECT TO DETAILS OF TIMING AND THE
QPF AXIS.  THERE IS POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AMONG THE
MODELS---INCLUDING THE CAMS. WPC QPF DID NOT FAVOR ONE PARTICULAR
MODEL SOLUTION BUT A BLEND OF SEVERAL---INCLUDING HI RES ENSEMBLES
TO ATTEMPT TO SHOW A CONSISTENT EVOLUTION. EXPECT MOST ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THE 0000 TO 1200 UTC
SATURDAY TIME FRAME---ALONG WITH THE GREATEST EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THREAT WHEN TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY

THE CURRENT AREA OF WELL ORGANIZED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL DEFINED DAY 1---PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY.   THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH
RESPECT TO AMOUNTS.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROF--DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
OF THE HI RES ENSEMBLE MEAN AND NSSL WRF--WITH AREAL AVERAGE
.50-1" AMOUNTS DEPICTED.

SOUTHERN PLAINS---LOWER MS VALLEY---TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST

THE AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY---TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST.  CONTINUED LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO THE QPF DETAILS IN THIS HIGH PW
AXIS---BUT GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS
ARE POSSIBLE WHERE UVVS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SERIES OF VORTS
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.  .


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 529734 529729 528724 524718 521715 516719 507727 498739
      485760 474782 466792 461796 456800 452805 448807 447809
      442813 435815 424811 419808 417806 413807 406808 403811
      400816 399821 396836 396841 395844 395854 399867 400872
      402876 406880 409883 407885 403890 398892 393889 390886
      386885 384884 381879 379875 376868 374860 375844 383832
      386828 388822 391817 393811 395800 393793 386792 375789
      371783 371778 372775 373769 369763 367756 363749 359745
      356739 350726 347721 343717 338716 332719 327727 318752
      314765 310779 308784 307791 308798 310804 307809 300808
      289805 277801 272799 264800 258802 256803 255809 252818
      252822 254825 258828 263830 267829 269826 270823 273823
      279824 289827 295829 300833 308842 312847 313857 313861
      311864 310871 308878 305884 303890 300893 296893 293893
      291895 288900 284908 281922 279925 279929 276935 275942
      274948 275951 276956 279960 281962 285963 285969 284972
      286974 293975 297973 299969 302967 305969 310973 311975
      310977 305982 296989 288997 276003 271005 265006 251006
      242012 238017 234021 230027 228034 225052 229071 245084
      252091 261099 269099 279104 286112 288117 292122 295126
      299129 306130 309130 311128 321124 326122 330124 332126
      333132 336135 344140 352139 357140 361139 365140 367135
      366129 364125 362112 354103 349099 346094 341084 339080
      338078 334077 332077 328081 324087 320090 310085 301080
      297075 297067 300061 303056 306052 308046 309043 312045
      316048 322051 327055 331058 338058 344066 349069 357070
      376083 378084 383081 387079 390078 393080 398083 402078
      406073 410070
 0.01 410070 413069 415071 417075 419081 418086 419090 418097
      420100 423103 429104 433103 437101 441100 449097 453096
      455091 461085 467077 474071 477061 478056 479048 479041
      477034 472014 469003 463995 461991 460987 462976 465963
      467949 472927 478904 481894 482889 482882 484870 486856
      488844 488839 491834 495825 501816 510800 513796 515792
      515783 517778 521771 525762 529734
 0.25 501788 500780 498778 495778 491782 487785 483791 481797
      480804 481809 483810 487808 492803 495799 499793 501788
 0.25 473840 473834 473828 469828 467831 464833 460832 460824
      448831 445834 445839 449849 447851 444851 438849 432847
      429848 427851 430857 434862 439867 435876 433883 429890
      424896 419902 409911 403917 399925 395932 390934 380935
      372932 366929 360929 357930 355927 356921 359914 364907
      369902 372896 371888 368880 361862 358855 354850 349849
      345851 343853 340858 337873 334879 333887 332895 330905
      329914 329925 331933 334940 337944 338948 340952 339959
      337965 334973 332982 330986 327988 321990 315988 311987
      308988 302992 289999 284004 278007 272011 265016 259020
      253023 247026 243030 238036 236045 237048 236051 235054
      236057 244067 252078 257084 262089 267093 276097 283100
      288100 291099 294098 295093 295089 293086 289080 285073
      281068 277064 276060 277057 281052 323012 333003 338997
      340999 339003 340007 343014 347020 353024 359028 366032
      370033 371029 370019 371011 373006 376004 381999 384997
      389997 396000 401002 410002 417001 424999 429000 432010
      433021 435028 434038 432050 431054 430061 430066 431070
      433075 436076 442074 448078 465057 468051 470039 471029
      469020 466013 461006 457000 456996 455989 455980 457969
      460946 463926 466904 464896 465886 466877 466868 467860
      470851 473840
 0.25 361769 361764 358760 356758 352758 349757 349754 345748
      343746 339745 335752 329766 327773 326781 323796 324800
      322804 322807 324808 329804 336802 339803 343801 347796
      354782 358776 361769
 0.25 350126 351121 351118 349114 348112 346110 344109 342110
      340113 340117 340122 341125 342127 346127 348127 350126
 0.25 313109 313107 312106 310105 308104 306103 305104 304104
      304106 306108 306109 308110 308111 309111 311111 313109
 0.25 233055 232053 231055 232055 233055
 0.50 466031 466026 464021 461016 455010 451004 451995 451984
      454966 455955 454943 453932 449927 447921 448913 452896
      451891 449887 445888 439892 435899 428911 417918 413924
      416925 420925 434920 438921 439923 441926 440930 437938
      433944 428949 426950 422950 414947 407946 400946 392947
      380952 375954 371953 369950 364945 360944 356944 352947
      349954 348964 347974 347984 348993 347001 350008 351011
      354012 360010 366006 370001 380992 383990 386990 393993
      397996 405996 411994 417991 419989 419987 424982 427980
      430980 432989 437002 440004 440010 440020 437037 442053
      446059 452058 456057 458055 461047 466031
 0.50 462861 462860 460860 460861 460864 460866 460867 461866
      461864 462861 462861
 0.50 462856 462854 462851 461851 461852 461854 462856 462857
      462856
 0.50 455840 454838 454835 452835 451836 450836 449838 450840
      451841 452842 454841 455840
 0.50 365898 360885 358878 356872 349862 346862 342867 340874
      339880 338889 339897 339913 339919 341927 343930 346928
      349923 354912 361903 365898
 0.50 313996 313993 310992 306993 300996 289004 283009 278011
      272016 269023 258031 257039 262043 266042 268039 275038
      291040 294038 296035 299029 299020 300016 302013 306008
      309002 313996
 0.50 283088 282084 280080 274075 267068 262063 255058 252056
      249058 249064 251069 255075 261080 269085 275090 280092
      283088
 1.00 447969 447966 445965 444966 443967 443969 443971 442973
      442976 443978 445976 446973 447971 447969
 1.00 418968 417966 414963 410961 400956 396955 393955 388956
      382959 379964 371972 368978 366985 368989 370990 375988
      383981 394979 407975 412973 417970 418968
 1.00 362992 362989 363987 362986 360986 359986 357987 356987
      356989 357991 358994 360994 361994 362992 362992
 1.00 300008 298006 295007 291009 288012 285014 281018 283024
      287025 290025 290022 292018 295014 298011 300008
 1.50 403968 400962 393961 387963 382968 379972 375976 373981
      372985 375985 378982 383979 387975 393974 398972 403968

$$





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