Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 141837
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
236 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 15/0000 UTC THRU APR 16/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...EASTERN SEABOARD...

THIS WILL BE A WET PERDIOD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES ALL THE WAY
NORTHWARD THRU THE EASTERN STATES INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND..AHEAD
OF AN OPEN BUT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL TROF.  THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN..TAKING THE MORE PHASED H5 TROF INTO THE EASTERN STATES BY
TUESDAY EVENING.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM..THE GULF OF MEXICO IS WIDE
OPEN WITH UP TO 50+ KTS OF LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING IN PWS GREATER
THAN 1.50 INCHES INTO THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO
THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS..WHILE LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON THE ATLANTIC INFLOW STRENGTHENS..WITH GREATER THAN 50+
KTS OF LOW LEVEL JET ALSO BRINGING IN PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND REGION.  THIS VERY STRONG
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS..WITH PRETTY
FAVORABLE HEIGHT FALLS/MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS AIDING IN THE LARGE SCALE LIFT.
 IN ADDITION TO THE MODEL MASS FIELDS BEING VERY AGREEABLE..THEIR
QPFS ARE ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT..AND GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF
ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF HIRES AND GFS MODELS AND THE IN-HOUSE
ENSEMBLE QPF BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTION FOR THE MANUAL PROG.  EXPECT
WIDESPREAD GREATER THAN 1 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS..WITH SOME LOCALLY
GREATER THAN 2 INCH TOTALS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND MAYBE
SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR OR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AREA.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

WEAKENING H5 S/WV ENERGY IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO SHEAR INTO
THIS REGION DURING THIS PERIOD UNDERNEATH THE ALSO WEAKENING B.C.
H5 TROF.  MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHEARING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST..WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW ALSO
WEAK AT BEST.  THUS..EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH IT TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE..WITH ANY GREATER THAN 0.25 INCH TOTALS LIKELY
LIMITED TO A FEW HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM THE WA CASCADES INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWESTERN WY.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 16/00Z
 0.01 524261 511236 507229 503221 501214 502202 507197 513198
      518202 525203 527201 528196 529189 531185 534176 533171
      532165 530159 526154 521149 516147 507133 498123 494117
      490117 485121 482125 475122 473118 472114 470105 465100
      460096 456092 449090 442090 438090 434092 430091 427089
      426091 427094 432099 430104 427105 425105 423107 425110
      433112 441114 444116 446120 447124 447131 448135 447141
      448148 450155 454160 459164 466168 475170 482172 488177
      493181 495182 497186 494194 491198 488203 486203 480205
      467211 463215 459221 460226 462233 462244 464247 468248
      471251 473254 475260 479267 483272 484275 483280 481287
      481291 483294 485297 488299 496299 502297 506296 509293
      511292 512289 516285
 0.01 529707 527701 526693 525682 519671 513663 508663 501664
      492661 487660 481662 473664 469665 465665 454668 449669
      446672 441675 436678 428684 409699 399707 389714 371725
      362730 356732 351735 339742 329750 325753 322758 316767
      309775 303781 288789 270800 254821 252830 250842 251853
      253869 254880 256894 258907 259919 254936 250952 253963
      262965 280955 296943 303941 309937 316930 324923 334915
      338911 343908 351904 360899 368895 383893 394890 405886
      418879 426874 433869 442861 449855 459847 467837 471833
      474828 482819 484815 488811 492802 502783 505775 508769
      512762 515757 526733 526726 527720 529707
 0.25 519273 518268 517265 514259 512254 509252 508256 508264
      509267 508271 503272 500270 499273 500275 503278 506279
      509275 510274 514275 519273
 0.25 515712 514699 510691 504686 497684 487685 476687 466691
      458696 447698 440701 425709 416713 408718 391730 376738
      359745 342753 329766 319779 311792 297803 288806 278811
      272816 267822 267824 270827 274834 271855 269865 269880
      271890 272900 274910 276918 279921 286921 295917 308907
      311905 313907 316910 320909 326905 332900 345888 352882
      361878 377871 390864 406854 413849 421841 431830 440817
      447809 453803 466788 472781 476776 488765 494758 499751
      505743 511732 515723 515712
 0.50 506717 506710 504706 500700 495695 488694 479697 470700
      451709 435713 427715 420719 391741 379749 373753 366756
      360757 357755 349756 342760 335767 332774 329781 332783
      335786 332791 327798 321802 314808 308815 297824 291828
      286833 282840 280848 279859 278871 278890 278900 280908
      283911 286913 293910 306899 310897 316897 318899 322899
      327895 333889 345879 360870 366865 371861 376855 377848
      385842 392837 400834 405833 409831 416826 420822 425815
      430810 442797 447791 453785 464775 474764 486752 492746
      498737 503728 506721 506717
 1.00 488717 488713 487710 483709 481708 477709 470713 465719
      449720 441724 434726 428727 418730 412734 401744 387754
      378760 371766 359776 354782 350789 345807 337815 335818
      337820 336824 335832 333836 331839 327840 322840 315839
      315834 317830 324824 325820 319821 311826 303831 297837
      295843 293852 289864 286887 286893 287899 288902 290903
      293902 299897 303892 309886 314880 318869 321866 326863
      329863 330866 327872 322879 321883 323886 328886 331883
      337876 339872 339866 337865 336862 338859 350849 353842
      360838 369835 373833 375830 374828 372826 369824 367821
      368816 370813 374804 377797 388787 396783 401782 405780
      414774 424771 433767 441765 445765 450763 456759 463753
      468746 473737 480729 485723 488717
 1.50 394764 399762 406760 419756 428751 431744 430742 424740
      415742 406749 398754 394757 390762 390764 394764
 1.50 308871 309864 309857 307854 302854 299857 296863 294871
      293889 292894 295895 299891 303885 307879 308871
 2.00 302876 301874 299876 299878 299880 300880 301878 302876

$$




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