Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 190700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 19/1200 UTC THRU SEP 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


...NEW MEXICO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS...

REMNANT DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE...ALONG WITH
THE OTHER ANOMALOUS PW AXIS EXTENDING WELL N/NE  OF T.S. POLO INTO
THE TX BIG BEND...WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH STALLED W-E
DRAPED STATIONARY FRONT FROM WEST TX/BIG BEND AREA EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TX GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERSISTENT S-SE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS WRN GOMEX MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF ODILE`S SLOW MOVING CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...THOUGH THE CIRCULATION EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD
INTO NRN TX BY THIS EVENING WILL ESSENTIALLY CLEAR NM OF
ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. WEAK ANTECEDENT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL GET A BOOST
AHEAD OF THE MCV AND WITH THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THE ENHANCED NOCTURNALLY-AIDED ELEVATED
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TOWARD TOWARD GREATER
UPWIND PROPAGATION AND THUS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF CELL TRAINING
ACROSS THE AREA... PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST TX INTO SERN NM WHERE
THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR. ADDITIONAL
AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS (1-2+ INCHES) WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS SERN NM
AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WRN TX...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND MORE DIRECT IMPACT FROM ODILE`S
REMNANT 850-500 MB CIRCULATION (PWS 2.5-3.0 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL). ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO .50 TO
1.00 INCH...HOWEVER AS PER THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE... LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 3-6+ INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE OVERALL
MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT (WARM RAIN PROCESSES) WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED RAINFALL RATES OF 2.5+ INCHES PER HOUR. WPC USED
A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE WHILE INCORPORATING SOME OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THAT OVER MOST AREAS HAS BEEN
PERFORMING BETTER IN THE NEAR TERM (WRF-ARW...NSSL-WRF...AND THE
RGEM).


...MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

STRONG UPPER JET STREAK (110+ KTS AT 250 MB) WILL DIVE SE OF
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL IN
TURN AMPLIFY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VLY. STRENGTHENING QG FORCING ALONG WITH
STRENGTHENING PRE-FRONTAL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT (WITH PWS
INCREASING TO 2-2.5 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL) WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. MODEST
DEEP-LAYER INSTBY (1000-2000 J/KG) ALONG WTIH SHARP TRANSITION
FROM SW TO W-NW FLOW ASSCD WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS WILL MAKE FOR A
RATHER PROGRESSIVE PCPN SHIELD...AND AS SUCH AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT (ON ORDER OF .25 INCH).


...SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

A RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM GA NORTHWARD UP THE PIEDMONT OF THE
CAROLINAS/VA WHERE THE BEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
EXISTS AND THE BEST 850 HPA UPSLOPE FLOW (20-30 KTS) IS
ANTICIPATED.  SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE REGION ARE
LOW -- 1-1.25" -- KEPT AMOUNTS LIGHT AND BELIEVE THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING IN THE REGION IS MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SLIGHTLY
INCREASED AMOUNTS FROM 12Z WPC CONTINUITY TOWARDS THE 00Z GEFS-
AND CLIMATOLOGY- BASED QPF REFORECAST.


...FLORIDA...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ALONG WITH EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.  DUE TO THE
FRONT`S POSITION, THE KEYS COULD GET IN ON SOME OF THE ACTION AS
WELL.  USED A COMBINATION OF 12Z WPC CONTINUITY AND THE 00Z GEFS-
AND CLIMATOLOGY- BASED QPF REFORECAST TO MODIFY TOTALS AND
LOCATIONS WERE HEAVY RAINFALL IS MOST FAVORED.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 225058 244079 254086 261085 265082 267075 269073 270068
      272066 275068 283068 287069 291071 293072 292075 286083
      282088 283096 285104 285110 288110 296111 299112 303114
      302119 303122 308126 325142 322145 321147 327149 331149
      333147 333144 330141 324132 324122 324118 326115 330118
      339126 346128 352127 358129 364129 369125 369120 366117
      362113 357111 353109 350106 346101 344097 345091 346088
      347082 349075 353068 357063 361059 365047 369042 371038
      376023 378021 378017 372014 365011 363008 363004 361993
      360990 359984 354980 352979 348981 340989 337990 332990
      324988 319983 317977 316969 316961 312947 312941 312931
      310924 307920 305917 303910 302901 301893 300884 301879
      303876 304868 306862 307857 310857 316858 323858 338856
      348847 358836 367825 372815 385789 387785 386783 375789
      369793 364798 359803 354805 352802 348798 346795 346790
      344770 342761 339754 335750 332748 329747 321748 315747
      312748 310750 307755 305763 300768 294772 285774 280777
      271778 259780 255780 251781 248783 246786 242795 240802
      238808 238816 237824 240865 240873 241882 245895 247902
      248910 249914 249919 248927 243940 242946 239951 232959
      231971 232972 233973 233974 235975 237976 239976 241976
      242976 244976 246976 248978 246979 244979 242979 241979
      239979 237981 235981 233981 231980
 0.01 227038 229037 231037 232035 232033 233031 231029 231027
      231025 231023 230021
 0.01 559828 558820 556814 551802 546795 543792 539790 536788
      531789 526790 524792 520796 518796 516793 511786 505779
      501777 498777 496779 495784 492784 487785 482786 467789
      462792 459795 453802 447811 442822 440826 438832 438843
      437848 435852 428857 425860 423864 424873 426879 426887
      426895 422907 413923 409933 405942 398961 397974 394987
      393994 394000 397002 402003 413017 416020 420020 423020
      425018 425013 426005 426997 430984 432973 437965 442959
      445955 448953 455947 458949 457953 457959 457976 458982
      461986 464989 469990 480990 481992 482995 483001 484013
      484030 483045 484058 489071 495077 500075 503075 507071
      509067 510059 510053 509048 509032 508026 505022 501018
      502012 503006 504000 507988 514968 519944 521930 526917
      535900 544882 549874 553865 559851 560843 560836
 0.01 536212 532196 530187 530178 528170 522166 519160 515155
      510151 503150 504155 500159 495174 504184 509188 511194
      517200 519207 521211 523213 528215 533216 536212
 0.01 513269 514263 514258 512250 511242 511236 510234 505227
      503221 500215 496210 488208 483209 473214 471217 473220
      480222 487224 490227 491229 497244 498247 497249 492243
      490240 487237 482238 476233 473232 467236 465238 464241
      465245 463248 460255 457264 460268 465266 470261 474256
      480255 487257 492263 499275 503280 505282 508282 512274
      513269
 0.01 427058 426053 423049 421044 421038 421031 417029 414029
      410031 405037 400045 399051 396051 392048 390047 385058
      379064 370064 369068 371071 373084 376091 378094 380093
      383092 387090 386086 390082 394086 395091 394095 393102
      390106 387108 384109 381106 378107 373115 373128 372134
      374136 376134 379129 385122 391118 399118 401128 405126
      407123 411114 413110 413104 412098 410093 406093 404096
      401100 399100 398097 396094 397087 401075 410075 413073
      414070 416063 414061 413058 414055 417055 419058 424060
      427058
 0.01 409154 410150 408149 405148 403145 403141 402139 399137
      396138 395142 396145 397150 399152 400155 402156 406156
      408155 409154
 0.01 396208 394202 390197 385193 380191 375188 370185 366184
      366187 369190 374194 375196 379197 384201 389204 393208
      396208
 0.01 391750 391748 390747 388747 386747 386746 384746 383747
      381747 381748 379750 379753 380753 382753 383754 384754
      385754 387754 387753 389752 390751 391750
 0.01 310064 310062 308060 307058 306057 305056 303056 301056
      300057 301059 301061 301063 302065 304067 306067 307066
      308065 310064
 0.25 523179 523176 522175 520174 519175 518176 517177 516177
      515179 515182 516183 517184 519184 520183 521182 522181
      523179 523179
 0.25 533838 533833 531830 526826 524823 521818 515812 511810
      507807 504802 502800 499801 495810 490822 488825 485824
      480813 474814 470817 463824 458826 454828 451833 451843
      450848 448853 441861 437869 435875 435885 436896 434910
      435916 438920 443922 446922 449920 455913 459910 461909
      465909 468912 470917 472934 472946 472952 473958 478969
      485978 488979 489976 492971 496960 500949 505938 509927
      512917 516903 519889 523877 529851 533838
 0.25 462891 463883 462876 459873 456875 451877 447879 446882
      446889 447894 450896 455897 459896 461892 462891
 0.25 436926 436921 435917 434918 431923 429926 427931 425935
      424940 424947 425952 430952 432949 434945 435940 436933
      436927 436926
 0.25 426966 426962 424959 421961 420963 419966 418970 417973
      416977 415980 415983 417985 419985 421982 423980 424975
      425973 426968 426966
 0.25 363025 358014 357007 355998 352995 347995 336997 330999
      323998 315993 311990 308985 304975 302968 303962 304953
      302945 300941 299934 297920 295895 291883 287870 286864
      284856 284852 286848 289847 290843 291839 294834 302827
      311821 320816 323814 326810 330798 332785 331776 329767
      327762 323759 317760 314762 313764 309774 302779 296783
      291786 287787 280788 274788 269786 262786 254787 251790
      248794 246798 246805 245811 245817 246830 254853 258884
      264908 265921 263930 257942 252952 253960 254966 257972
      262976 271980 275982 276989 275996 275999 272000 263998
      262002 265006 267011 267017 251036 251041 253045 254050
      254057 251059 247060 240055 237060 239065 242070 247073
      250074 253073 256069 260068 263066 267062 267058 269057
      273056 278057 282055 288049 292045 294040 293033 293030
      297031 304037 310039 315043 322052 327061 330066 333069
      337067 341063 347057 355049 358044 360038 361029 363025
 0.25 360821 359819 358820 356821 354822 353824 353826 352826
      353826 354826 356826 356825 358824 359823 359822 360821
 0.25 325100 322095 322093 319091 315091 310088 304085 301087
      300088 302094 304099 305102 308104 311108 315112 319110
      322104 325100
 0.25 291812 290810 289810 287809 286808 285808 284808 282808
      280809 282810 283810 284811 286812 288813 290813 291812
      291812
 0.50 524847 525840 523835 521833 518834 513839 511838 509833
      506825 503826 501829 498835 493839 486844 481842 478838
      475837 471837 466843 465850 471865 471874 470885 470895
      473905 476913 478922 480942 478952 476956 477961 479964
      481965 484959 486955 489952 494947 497942 500934 503925
      504916 505908 508900 514884 519868 523855 524847
 0.50 355040 356032 355027 355021 354013 354007 352002 349000
      346000 335002 326004 319005 313004 302003 297001 294000
      292001 286006 283007 283011 287013 296014 305021 308029
      317034 322040 329046 332055 337060 338059 345052 351046
      355040
 0.50 328788 328780 326775 322771 318772 311779 307782 304787
      297794 295798 297803 301814 306815 312814 316812 320810
      324805 325801 328788 328788
 0.50 292941 292937 291936 285937 280934 276937 270943 264952
      261957 261964 264969 266972 271974 277975 284976 287975
      288972 285968 283962 286949 292942 292941
 0.50 288916 288906 287900 284885 277857 276852 277847 277840
      278832 282829 284826 284821 280817 271812 264791 261790
      257791 251794 251807 252821 251828 252832 255838 257844
      263856 266872 269885 276912 279920 283923 286921 288916
 0.50 275046 274044 273042 269042 267043 264043 262044 260047
      261051 261054 265054 267053 269050 271049 272048 275046
 0.50 261037 262035 260034 259035 259037 260038 261037
 1.00 506880 506875 504874 501875 496871 491869 486872 483877
      482887 485894 488899 493899 497896 499893 501893 505886
      506880
 1.00 485861 485859 484857 484856 482854 480855 479857 480859
      482862 484863 485861
 1.00 348033 348027 347022 347017 347013 345009 342008 333009
      328010 324012 318017 316022 317026 324031 330038 333043
      337043 344040 347037 348033
 1.00 321797 321793 321789 320786 318784 315785 314787 313791
      312794 311796 310800 310803 311805 315805 318804 320802
      321799 321797
 1.50 341026 340021 338018 334016 329015 324016 321018 321023
      325026 327029 331032 335033 339031 341027 341026

$$




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