Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 191822
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 20/0000 UTC THRU SEP 21/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SWD INTO THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC/ERN
NORTH CAROLINA

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK UPR LOW DVLPG OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
PD WHILE STGR NRN STREAM WLY FLOW HELP PUSH A WEAK FRONT AND
ASSOCD PREFRONTAL CONVECTION OFF THE NE COAST EARLY MON NIGHT.
THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT/OR WEAK SFC TROF WILL SLOW AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OVER THE SRN MID ATLC REGION WHERE ELY ATLC
FLOW/BROADER DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL PWS OVER THE SRN MID ATLC COASTAL AREA.  THE REMAINS OF
JULIA CONTINUE TO BE POORLY RESOLVED AND HANDLED BY THE MODELS AS
WEAK SFC REFECTION CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OF MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS AS OF MIDDAY MON..WHILE MOST OF THE MODELS QUICKLY LOSE
CIRC OR MERGE IT WITH WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF DVLPG UPR LOW NEAR
THE CAROLINA COAST.  GIVEN THESE TRENDS..FEEL THE MORE ERN SOLNS
MAINTAINING HEAVIER RAIN POTNL FROM THE SRN DELMARVA SWD INTO NE
NC A HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT DEVELOPING DAY 1 ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND.  THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH PWS IN THE 2 TO 2.25+ INCH RANGE WILL SUPPORT 1 TO 2
INCH AREA AVG AMOUNTS FROM THE SRN DELMARVA INTO NW NC WITH POTNL
FOR ISOLD TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
DVLPS TO SUPPORT STGR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

GT LAKES SWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY

STG ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE NRN BORDER STATES WILL PUSH A QUICK
MOVING COLD FRONT ACRS THE GT LAKES WITH THE SRN PORTION SLOWING
ACRS THE MID MS VALLEY.  A NARROW RIBBON OF RETURN MSTR A WEAK WAA
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCT TSTMS
ALONG THE FRONT ESPECIALLY FROM LOWER MI SWD INTO NRN MO MON
NIGHT.  MSTR IS NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP BUT DECENT CAPE VALUES EARLY
MON EVENING COULD SUPPORT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER TSTMS BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION

DEEP TROPICAL MSTR STREAMING NEWD IN ADVANCE OF HRCN PAINE AND
EAST OF A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA
COAST WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND EMBDD
CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE 4 CORNERS REGION.
FCST IS SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED BY NUMEROUS EMBDD VORTS/MCVS ACRS
BAJA /NW MEX LIFTING NEWD THAT LEAD TO TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES
WITH PCPN. THE NAM SEEMED TO BE A SLOW OUTLIER SOLN WITH NWD
SPREAD OF PCPN..OTHERWISE..A BLEND OF NON-NAM SOLNS ALONG WITH
CONTINUITY WAS USED GIVEN MODEST MODEL SPREAD IN TIMING/PLACEMENT.


SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 21/00Z
 0.01 451627 455631 459636 463644 467650 466655 463658 458665
      453672 450680 435706 424720 418726 413732 405742 401749
      401753 399757 394764 389772 379783 375789 374793 377794
      376801 372807 369816 367820 365824 358828 351831 347832
      345829 338828 323826 313827 309829 303830 299836 297839
      294841 287844 283844 280843 275839 271834 264828 261826
      260824 263822 262819 258812 257803 257796 261790 265785
      277773 281767 286762 305742 311736 318729 324725 330721
      339719 345720 352720 360721 370719 376718 379716 384714
      386711 391704 396698 400695 404694 406691 409688 411685
      420670 425663 429655 434642 437635 441630
 0.01 546814 545794 544777 540763 535751 529738 525731 525722
      524712 522705 519697 518690 519684 518676 515672 512670
      503667 498667 491668 489666 488662 484658 479656 472659
      462668 459672 455680 452692 451703 451711 448716 445722
      444727 441733 440736 440740 442743 446742 448737 452724
      458712 459709 461711 460715 459721 458729 459734 460740
      458745 454757 451765 447772 443785 439798 438805 437811
      434825 431835 422860 417872 411884 407890 402889 399894
      397899 396901 395905 392910 389915 387920 387924 389931
      395941 401943 405939 413930 420921 427909 432900 437890
      445866 456839 470819 482802 485797 488793 498787 500785
      502786 507787 515801 515812 513819 510825 508831 506845
      503857 502865 502873 501880 501891 501912 501923 502928
      503931 504934 506938 510943 514947 516949 518952 522955
      525952 528949 531944 531928 531907 531896 532887 532876
      534868 539853 542847 543839 544833 544825 546814
 0.01 536180 537169 533160 529149 528140 527134 525131 518127
      508112 504109 502112 502119 503132 502136 500141 498150
      494150 492153 492158 494164 491167 487169 485171 486174
      491181 494184 498186 502194 505197 504202 500208 492211
      488210 484211 481211 477212 475212 472216 473219 477220
      484221 490225 494233 503249 506256 511263 513260 514257
      515243 515238 517236 518222 526201 526192 526188 528186
      533183 536180
 0.01 504276 504270 504265 502263 497252 492243 490239 485238
      483239 481236 478232 473231 471234 469234 465234 464239
      466242 473249 482251 489259 495268 502275 504276
 0.01 474131 473123 471119 471115 471111 473108 475106 471105
      468105 466107 464109 462107 460104 457107 449104 447106
      447110 446118 446121 450123 452127 453132 453137 454141
      454147 457148 461143 463139 464136 455122 457118 460117
      463116 465117 473131 474131
 0.01 469999 469987 469981 468976 467972 466968 465963 462959
      460953 457952 457957 457968 452974 448971 447975 446981
      446005 446010 447014 449022 453029 457037 460042 463045
      465043 466034 466023 465018 465012 465006 469999
 0.01 463991 462989 460986 459988 460991 462993 463991
 0.01 443964 443954 443949 444940 444935 442933 438935 435939
      434947 435957 436964 438971 442971 443964
 0.01 384127 359115 349110 344103 339087 335086 335091 336097
      338106 337112 336117 333119 327120 320114 319111 319107
      318103 315094 310089 307083 303077 300074 297072 295069
      290066 282062 275058 266055 254048 247044 238043 234043
      230045 229051 230056 239070 260088 272102 277109 283113
      288119 291121 291123 293129 289130 285128 281127 272123
      265119 261116 255115 253117 254122 255125 258128 263132
      268137 270140 271143 269146 261149 258151 258156 259166
      260170 259176 259186 261193 263196 267197 270196 275197
      278199 282198 287198 291197 300195 308192 310190 314191
      321193 328192 336189 341192 343195 348196 347194 345189
      346184 347180 347176 346166 345158 352159 355158 360159
      364159 364154 362149 366146 371145 373143 376134 377130
      380129 384127
 0.01 379099 380090 379088 379083 380079 381076 381074 378071
      375066 371064 368063 372068 372077 372081 373084 375089
      376093 376098 377101 379099
 0.01 368106 366104 365103 363101 363103 364105 366106 368106
      368106
 0.01 369093 367092 366090 364090 362090 360091 358091 357091
      358093 360094 362094 364094 365094 367095 369093 369093
 0.01 353086 354084 352084 350081 348083 350086 352086 353086
      353086
 0.01 332058 330057 328057 327057 326057 326059 328060 330060
      332058 332058
 0.01 303952 303947 300945 298943 294942 292941 290943 286949
      282956 279962 282968 283971 286970 294968 298967 298962
      299958 301956 303952
 0.25 523171 524164 523156 521146 517137 513134 509137 507141
      506146 508159 508162 506167 504171 505176 509185 510188
      515191 518188 520183 521176 523171
 0.25 515741 514735 511729 507727 502728 495735 490744 485747
      481751 475759 473763 474765 477765 485758 490749 493749
      499750 509749 514746 515741
 0.25 489701 489698 487697 485698 484698 482699 481701 479704
      478706 478708 478709 478711 478712 480711 481711 482710
      483709 485707 486705 488704 489701 489701
 0.25 438668 437665 435664 431665 424676 416688 409699 398720
      393725 387730 381734 377735 368730 363728 356728 349728
      340730 334732 329736 321744 315754 312761 310768 307774
      304778 297787 290795 278805 273808 271812 272818 274823
      278828 283831 288830 290828 292824 295823 300819 302817
      300815 300812 303810 306806 311803 315799 324788 328785
      334782 340782 344784 350785 357785 366783 373780 377776
      380771 386760 392749 400737 404731 407728 412723 415719
      421709 429697 435684 437675 438668
 0.25 440861 440857 437859 434864 432871 430877 427883 425890
      425896 429892 432885 434880 437874 439868 440861
 0.25 418912 417908 415906 413905 410905 408907 406910 406912
      407915 408918 410920 413919 415917 416914 418912
 0.25 358136 359131 359127 356121 350119 345125 342130 337134
      334136 330136 323132 319132 314135 308140 302143 295143
      290146 286152 280157 276160 271164 267171 268177 271181
      277184 287185 293184 303178 309173 315170 319168 326170
      330172 335172 340177 341179 343178 343171 339156 335145
      341141 346141 350142 355140 358136
 0.25 291098 290094 287091 279086 272082 265077 258072 255075
      257078 262084 269091 274096 281102 284104 288102 291098
 0.50 520159 520154 520151 519147 518143 517141 513141 512142
      510146 511151 512155 513158 515159 517161 519162 520159
 0.50 433679 432674 428676 422683 418691 414699 410707 408711
      409719 412718 414714 419707 425698 429691 432682 433679
 0.50 415912 415910 413908 412909 411910 411912 412913 414913
      415912 415912
 0.50 391741 390738 386740 379744 375744 373742 365738 359735
      350735 341736 333741 328745 325749 324754 324759 327763
      334767 340770 346775 354776 364775 373772 377770 380766
      387752 391741
 0.50 355133 356131 356129 355126 353124 352123 350123 349123
      348125 348128 348130 347130 346132 345134 347135 349136
      350136 352136 353135 354134 355133
 0.50 333167 329163 326160 324157 323150 320143 315146 309149
      303149 299150 298154 297158 295160 289161 283164 279169
      286181 290182 297179 306172 310166 316163 322164 325165
      328168 331168 333167
 0.50 294815 292814 291812 289810 286809 282809 278811 278813
      277815 276819 278822 280825 283824 285822 287820 290818
      292818 294815
 0.50 283095 283093 282092 280091 279090 278090 277090 277092
      278094 280096 281096 283095
 1.00 384752 383750 381751 380752 378753 376754 375755 374756
      373758 374760 375761 377761 379760 379759 380757 381757
      382755 382754 383752 384752
 1.00 373760 372756 369754 363749 358745 352743 347747 344751
      344755 344760 345763 351767 358770 364768 368767 370765
      373760
 1.00 305168 305164 303161 301163 299166 297167 295168 291169
      290171 290176 292176 294176 298175 300174 302172 304170
      305168
 1.50 366762 366758 364755 363753 361751 358750 356749 352749
      349751 348754 348758 350762 352763 354764 358764 361763
      365762 366762
 2.00 358759 358756 357754 356753 355753 354753 353752 352753
      351755 351758 353759 355761 357760 358759

$$





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