Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 062132
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
432 PM EST SAT FEB 06 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 07/0000 UTC THRU FEB 10/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...18Z UPDATE...

CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF WERE TO INCREASE QPF JUST A
BIT OVER THE FL PENINSULA TO CONFORM WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE OVER THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

ORRISON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

...SOUTHEAST...

THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST GULF/SOUTHEAST U.S. OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO SUPPORT A
VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THE  DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW OFF THE
EAST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.  THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE PATH OF THIS
LOW...WITH THE NAM AGAIN A WESTERN OUTLIER...THE EC AND UKMET
FARTHEST EAST AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN.  GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE NAM..ITS SOLUTION WAS NOT FAVORED.   THERE ARE SUBSEQUENT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP DIFFERENCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
RESULTANT QPF ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS STORM.  IN ADDITION
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY PRECIP PUSHES
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NC.  RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE OVERALL
DETAILS GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...EVEN AWAY FROM THE WESTERN
OUTLIER NAM SOLUTION.  DAY 1 QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE GEFS MEAN AND
IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN TO MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES.
MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS LIKELY FROM NORTHEAST SC INTO SOUTHEAST
TO EASTERN NC.

...CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA...

BLENDED TPW IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE BEGINNING OF A NORTHEAST SURGE
OF HIGHER PW AIR INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE
AMPLIFYING GULF UPPER TROF AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS OUT
OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS EARLY DAY 1 ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA IN A REGION OF
STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE.

...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE  UPPER MS
VALLEY AND UPPER LAKES...

THE HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE BEEN RACING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST
U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OCCURS FROM ALONG THE WEST COAST...EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION.  THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOWFALL TOTALS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MB INTO
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS AXIS
AFFECTING NORTHEAST ND INTO  NORTHERN MN...FAR NW WI AND PORTIONS
OF THE U.P. OF MI THIS PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL TOTALS.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION.


DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATL...

A PHASING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMERGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY
WILL HELP ESTABLISH AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST MON
AND TUES. THE INTENSE DISTURBANCE WILL CLOSE OFF A LOW ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUN... WHILE ADDITIONAL
UPPER DYNAMICS DIG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY. ON
MON... A LARGE CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER MI...
A FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS...
WHILE THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATL REGION. THIS SHOULD SPELL MODEST QPF AMOUNTS OF A
.25 INCH OR GREATER AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH LACK OF GULF
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ENHANCED AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO NRN WI AND THE WRN UP OF MI. THEN ON TUES... THE UPPER
DYNAMICS REACHING THE MID-ATL COAST WILL BEGIN TO INDUCE A LOW...
WHICH WILL PROCEED AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER... A POSSIBLE
TROUGH AXIS/TROWAL COULD SET UP FROM THIS INTENSIFYING LOW BACK TO
THE SURFACE RESEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS COULD ALLOW A SPIKE OF MOISTURE TO FOCUS ALONG THIS
CONVERGENCE AXIS FOR HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS AND SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW VERY LARGE SPREAD ON THIS SYSTEM
AND RESULTANT QPF... MEANING THIS AXIS SETTING UP FROM ANYWHERE
FROM AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN VA TO AS FAR NORTH AS NYC/NJ/NERN PA
BACK TO THE APPALACHIANS AND LAKE ERIE. HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
TWO DAYS THE SPREAD WILL NARROW TO ADD BETTER PERSPECTIVE AND
DETAIL TO THE FCST.

...EASTERN SEABOARD...

A DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS AFTN
WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUN MORNING AND BEGIN TO INDUCE
A WAVE WHICH WILL GO THROUGH RAPID CYCLOGENESIS. BY THE TIME EARLY
MON ARRIVES THIS DEEP LOW AND NEG TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WELL
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATL COAST WITH PERHAPS THE WESTERN OUTER EDGE
OF THE LARGE PRECIP SHIELD CLIPPING THE OUTER BANKS OF NC. THE
SYSTEM TRANSITIONING DOWNSTREAM DUE NORTH AND APPROACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE PERIOD... MOISTURE COULD SPREAD
ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND DESPITE THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE. THE HEAVIEST QPF VIA THE GFS AND ECMWF BLEND SHOULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE CAPE OF MA WITH POSSIBLE .25 INCH AMOUNTS OR
POTENTIALLY SNOW.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/MUSHER


24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 554012 551995 553988 551984 547970 541954 536944 532931
      526918 520905 518897 515891 513885 513880 514877 514867
      512860 511836 510826 509819 504807 499794 496787 493782
      486770 480764 477760 480753 486741 491731 493717 495712
      497703 498699 497694 499691 503689 504687 507685 510679
      511673 510666 505651 503642 499635 492625 489624 486629
      480639 476643 472650 468654 466660 461671 458684 453699
      451704 449710 447724 444737 445744 447744 449741 451735
      453736 454741 454745 454750 454755 453762 450769 448778
      447785 444798 438808 432819 424829 421834 419840 413849
      406859 406863 408866 412870 416868 421872 424872 427865
      430860 435857 439854 444849 450853 451856 452861 452870
      450875 448890 447895 446899 446905 444908 441911 439917
      436931 433966 442988 447992 454993 457993 459991 462991
      465994 470006 472011 473019 475024 478029 481035 489035
      494035 497036 499039 502050 505056 512060 519057 523054
      526047 528042 529038 532037 539029 542027 546028 549023
      552017 554012
 0.01 535217 537199 535190 532186 523178 520173 517171 516169
      513168 511165 505163 503163 502168 503176 507190 512202
      517214 524224 529226 533222 535217
 0.01 516264 517258 516256 514251 514247 512239 510232 507226
      505221 503219 499214 494210 481208 476211 474219 480222
      484223 486226 488229 489233 487236 484236 479232 475231
      472231 468238 468242 469245 475258 466267 463272 463276
      462281 461283 460289 458299 457304 459307 463312 470316
      476315 486310 496303 500300 505294 508287 511278 514270
      516264
 0.01 476159 474152 471147 466143 464137 462131 458133 458138
      459140 460148 462154 466159 468161 471161 476159
 0.01 462111 463104 463098 459086 448070 441067 436068 434071
      433074 436078 440079 445082 452088 457096 458100 456102
      453097 450094 446095 436095 429094 430099 430104 427107
      428108 430110 431113 434113 439114 443116 446121 446124
      449124 453117 462111
 0.01 446046 445043 445041 443038 441038 440040 439040 440040
      441043 443045 443046 444046 446046 446046
 0.01 440060 441055 439052 437052 436047 434045 432043 430044
      431048 432051 432052 432054 433057 435059 437062 438062
      440060
 0.01 437047 436045 434042 433042 434044 434045 436047 437049
      437047
 0.01 415076 415073 413070 412068 414066 415066 416062 414061
      412063 409063 407064 404065 401067 405070 406070 408075
      410075 413076 415076
 0.01 398700 397689 396681 394669 393666 389665 378663 375664
      372667 368671 362675 357676 344683 323699 314707 303715
      292722 280729 275732 270736 262747 255757 251761 249764
      249768 249772 247775 244778 234788 226799 221807 219810
      220815 220819 221821 223823 231822 234821 236823 237829
      239831 243833 251833 278826 284828 293827 297826 302828
      307831 313830 322820 327817 332816 334814 344805 350803
      353798 359785 364772 371761 377750 385738 388732 391726
      392718 395713 397704 398700
 0.01 297924 297918 295914 290908 288897 287891 286887 285874
      284869 283865 282860 280856 272852 269851 265852 261854
      258858 255865 251873 245889 245895 247899 252905 257913
      262917 271921 279923 296926 297924
 0.25 508269 509265 509260 509254 507250 505252 502255 498255
      495252 491248 489250 490257 489265 486269 482273 479279
      477289 477297 477301 479304 484303 492297 496293 498287
      501279 505274 508269
 0.25 519962 519955 518951 516938 511918 505898 498882 492861
      486843 482836 475831 472830 470831 467835 466840 465846
      466852 469864 470874 471886 472892 472898 472906 473913
      476923 479932 482939 484945 486949 485951 480950 474947
      470947 467949 465953 465959 471966 476969 479973 480978
      482983 484986 490991 497994 500993 502990 504984 503980
      502973 502967 509965 516965 519962
 0.25 382713 383709 382705 379702 371697 366696 360696 355696
      350696 343702 334709 321723 315729 311733 305735 295739
      287744 284747 281751 278761 272768 265774 258780 251787
      247794 243805 242810 242816 246821 250822 257823 261821
      270816 279814 288808 298805 304804 308807 312810 316811
      323811 327809 338804 344798 349791 354781 357772 362762
      371743 378725 382713
 0.50 494282 495280 495278 495277 494274 492274 491274 490274
      488275 486277 485279 484281 484284 485286 486287 488287
      490286 492285 492284 494282 494282
 0.50 490901 491899 491896 491894 490891 490889 489886 488885
      487884 486883 485882 484884 484887 484889 485892 485893
      485894 486897 487898 487899 488900 490901 490902 490901
 0.50 374719 373715 370712 363709 355706 351705 346706 339711
      333717 322728 316734 309740 304744 295749 290754 285762
      280767 274772 267777 261783 253796 250800 250803 251808
      253813 256816 260815 268813 276810 283806 291802 299799
      305798 309799 316803 319804 324804 334802 340798 346792
      350784 353775 359758 365742 374719
 1.00 357743 357734 356729 355725 351720 345720 338722 333726
      325734 316743 307751 302755 297759 289768 286773 284779
      276788 271799 270802 273803 276803 288797 294794 300791
      308792 313794 319797 325798 332798 339795 343790 346785
      348778 349771 353758 356750 357743
 1.50 353748 352743 350739 348735 346732 342730 339731 332735
      326740 321746 307756 298768 296771 295777 296786 305786
      312788 318791 326793 336792 342788 346779 347771 352753
      353748
 2.00 349749 346743 342740 336739 331742 326746 323749 313757
      310761 308767 305772 306778 316784 326788 333788 338786
      343781 344776 347763 349756 349749
 3.00 344754 343752 340751 334752 329753 324757 320761 319767
      318772 320776 325779 330780 337778 341773 342768 343761
      344754
 4.00 338764 338762 337760 335759 333759 332759 330760 328761
      327762 327763 326764 326766 327768 327769 328770 329771
      330772 331773 333773 335772 336771 337770 337769 338767
      338766 338764

24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 518276 519265 518257 513245 511238 508232 505229 499226
      495220 492214 489210 485206 482206 480209 481212 485213
      487219 493220 497226 499233 501238 502246 506261 512271
      513274 511277 508276 506273 502262 499255 495250 489248
      485251 487257 489264 490271 493277 496282 501287 507289
      511287 516281 518276
 0.01 501960 499941 497932 495921 494915 494910 493898 493873
      491866 490860 490842 489831 487823 482806 481798 480794
      479786 475780 471774 468773 463774 455776 451777 447776
      427768 417762 409756 403753 400751 399748 398746 400745
      402742 403738 407736 412739 419738 424737 427735 429732
      432730 436726 439720 448714 450706 451699 452696 451693
      453686 457681 460674 461665 460660 457657 445654 439651
      433652 409661 398667 392671 387675 374675 359675 353678
      348682 337692 329699 323707 315716 307728 303741 302748
      303754 305757 307765 311771 317775 323777 327779 333779
      337778 339779 338781 334784 318804 312807 307810 299822
      296827 293834 307836 314826 318821 321821 323825 321838
      321843 319845 320853 318858 319861 322866 329881 330883
      331888 334893 349897 355904 362915 366921 364928 361936
      363941 366943 372938 375937 379936 386940 391943 396949
      398952 402952 409953 414956 418957 421959 426959 428961
      431961 436966 436975 447978 449981 453983 457983 459981
      461983 464984 471987 484992 489996 492998 496998 497996
      497992 495990 491989 482984 480981 479979 481977 484974
      494975 497965 501960
 0.01 454850 449845 449839 446836 440834 433836 426840 421844
      422848 424850 425856 429857 433855 434852 440854 442857
      446858 451857 453852 454850
 0.01 390746 388744 386745 385747 385748 384749 383750 382752
      384754 385751 387751 388749 388748 390746
 0.01 373905 373902 371900 369900 367900 365903 367905 369905
      371907 373905
 0.01 342777 341776 339776 337778 339779 341778 342777
 0.25 475803 474794 473791 470789 465789 461790 454791 448790
      438788 435789 433792 429797 424799 420798 414796 408800
      404802 399800 398808 397817 390826 387831 384837 382843
      383848 396845 400842 404838 411827 415824 422823 435821
      439820 446821 456827 462825 467822 473813 475807 475803
 0.25 474897 474890 473883 470888 468891 465895 463900 462905
      462910 464915 467915 469912 471907 473902 474897
 0.25 428673 426671 422671 413674 409676 404676 397679 389682
      382687 375688 369686 361686 354690 343698 338703 333709
      325721 319735 317742 316745 316751 317758 323764 327768
      333770 356754 365751 372747 381736 393727 404719 417709
      421703 424696 427690 427683 428673
 0.25 411807 410807 408806 407806 406805 405806 405808 405810
      405812 405813 407814 409813 409812 410810 410809 411807
 0.25 395798 393794 391793 388793 386795 383798 381799 379802
      379805 380808 383808 385806 387804 389801 392799 395798
 0.25 371826 371824 370823 369824 368827 367829 367831 368831
      369831 370829 371828 371826
 0.25 358839 358837 358834 357833 355833 354835 353835 352837
      352839 351839 352842 354843 356843 357841 358839
 0.50 466807 465800 463799 457802 450801 443800 440797 436799
      434801 433806 433810 435812 444812 451811 455818 459818
      461816 465809 466807
 0.50 417688 413682 407681 396685 384692 378695 371695 365694
      359693 354695 349699 340709 333717 327729 322740 320747
      320752 322756 326760 330763 335765 339764 340762 343757
      347753 361747 366744 371741 380732 387723 392718 397713
      404703 412696 415692 417688
 1.00 399698 397694 395694 394695 390696 387698 386700 384702
      382704 379707 379709 382710 385709 388708 391707 393704
      395702 396700 399698
 1.00 375717 376713 374711 369713 366717 365719 362724 360727
      358732 363733 365733 370730 372727 374722 375717 375717
 1.00 352735 350731 348731 343734 338737 333741 330744 327749
      329754 333754 336752 341749 345746 349740 352735


24HR QP VT 10/00Z
 0.01 543041 539038 533037 528033 524028 516021 508014 505013
      503011 496010 495010 494015 494020 496023 496026 499029
      502032 507035 512040 520046 524049 531052 536049 539045
      543041
 0.01 483692 476678 473671 469666 466657 462648 458638 453633
      446631 440634 434638 429645 423656 416669 406671 397681
      394682 393676 390668 387664 384663 375666 371667 368670
      364675 353687 337707 319727 299749 287775 285782 282789
      280797 277801 279805 280810 277817 274818 272816 268818
      266821 268824 273826 277828 278833 283840 286837 285829
      291825 294824 297823 303818 310818 315815 320808 333803
      339792 344775 348768 354762 358761 360762 360765 360770
      358774 354780 352782 351788 350795 352800 353802 355808
      357810 358808 363803 365808 365812 363815 359819 350833
      341843 348848 351851 351854 339860 333850 329846 329849
      331852 333859 337865 340871 343877 347877 346874 344865
      347863 350865 354864 355870 356877 359883 363889 369889
      365884 361876 359872 359866 362863 366865 371870 377871
      390875 398877 402883 404887 407889 416889 422893 426888
      429886 435887 439892 456873 460878 462881 461884 456899
      456902 459905 463910 466908 469907 474902 478896 483889
      490878 493860 494856 493849 490843 482829 481826 480820
      479809 474785 469766 464751 462742 466735 478704 483692
 0.01 254816 253812 251809 251806 253802 248801 246805 244809
      243813 243819 244825 247827 249824 251820 253817 254816
 0.25 460686 460682 459679 456674 451662 451654 451647 447645
      441646 439646 436649 434653 430664 429670 428676 431680
      436678 444674 447677 449684 451689 457689 460686
 0.25 410770 409761 407756 405753 401746 400740 401734 402727
      402720 402715 399710 397708 392709 383720 379728 377735
      377740 378746 381755 381775 383779 386779 394781 398786
      402786 404783 408777 410770
 0.25 378705 376697 374695 372694 365695 360699 342715 334723
      328732 322742 316752 311762 307774 305780 305785 309789
      315787 319784 323779 331770 338762 346754 354746 362737
      376719 378705
 0.25 386804 385802 383802 381804 381805 380807 382808 383807
      384806 385805 386804
 0.50 393731 393727 392724 390721 388723 387727 387731 386733
      386738 387742 389743 392741 393738 393734 393731
 0.50 369709 369704 367703 364705 360709 355715 348719 342723
      337728 332734 329740 323754 322757 322763 325764 328764
      334760 338755 349745 359734 363728 366721 369709
 1.00 351731 350730 348731 346732 345733 343734 343735 342736
      341737 340739 339740 340741 342740 342739 344738 345737
      345736 347735 348734 348733 350732 351731


$$




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