Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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318
FXUS04 KWBC 102000
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EST SUN DEC 10 2017


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 11/0000 UTC THRU DEC 14/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

NORTHERN PLAINS / UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY / GREAT LAKES

BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW IN THE NORTHEAST, THE ONLY PCPN
OF ANY CONSEQUENCE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND LIGHT
SYNOPTIC SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY ON MON. LAKE MI ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER WILL
BRING LOCALIZED MAX TOTALS AOA 0.25" ALONG THE SW LOWER MI
SHORELINE. OTHERWISE, TOTALS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE BETWEEN
0.10-0.25".

ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES, LINGERING WESTERLY TO WSW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
LIGHT-MODERATE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WITH LIQUID-EQUIVALENT
AMOUNTS AVERAGING BETWEEN 0.25-0.50" ACROSS THE W-WSW FLOW LAKE
ERIE SNOWBELTS IN NW PA AND WESTERN NY...ALONG WITH 0.25-0.75"
ACROSS THE W-WSW FLOW LAKE ONTARIO SNOWBELTS IN UPSTATE NY.

FOR MORE DETAILS ON WINTER WEATHER...SEE QPFHSD.


DAYS 2/3...

WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET.

...GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING WILL DEVELOP AS
IT SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. A COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE
WILL SET UP STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL CONVERGENCE FROM VT TO ME.
ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE LOW WILL HAVE 0.5 TO 0.75
INCH PW. THERMAL PROFILES FROM 12Z CONSENSUS SUGGEST RAIN WILL BE
SLOW TO SPREAD NORTH FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE INTERIOR
SNOW ZONE AS THE MOISTURE OVER RUNS THE WEDGE. THEREFORE...SEE THE
HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION AT QPFHSD. THE LOW LIFTS NORTH OF ME TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE ATLANTIC PLUME OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO CANADA.

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL ALSO HAVE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...ALSO SEE THE QPFHSD.


...UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. CONTINENTAL AIR WITH LESS THAN 0.5 INCH PW ACCOMPANIES
THIS WAVE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LOCALIZED
BANDING MAY ENHANCE PRECIP (SNOW) RATES TO MODERATE.



HURLEY/JACKSON


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 12/00Z
 0.01 545041 546029 545019 545014 543009 541003 536989 530978
      526970 523965 520960 515955 507947 504944 501941 501937
      499933 499927 497921 494914 490909 486903 482899 480897
      481895 483893 485888 488881 490874 495859 505852 508847
      509841 512833 512822 510813 508811 504813 493820 485826
      482828 478829 472830 467826 463819 458809 455803 451799
      445796 440791 437794 432799 428799 428794 431788 436787
      438781 439774 441767 442759 444752 449747 457744 461741
      464736 465728 465722 465717 471706 473698 472689 472685
      470683 466682 464687 457689 458695 454700 450706 448709
      445711 442711 440714 438717 440721 441724 439727 433727
      428730 429734 433733 439734 441735 440738 437738 431739
      430746 428753 425758 423763 424765 424768 420775 416780
      407787 399790 396793 393791 384798 380803 378809 387806
      394803 398800 403796 409792 412793 412798 413803 412807
      413817 415820 415825 413832 412839 409845 411863 413870
      412876 413881 414884 415889 416892 418901 419905 420907
      427916 430921 431928 435948 436964 438969 438973 441980
      431983 431989 432992 437996 441000 446002 456009 464018
      468023 472029 482035 487040 492043 501049 507053 509056
      512057 516061 521062 526061 529056 532053 535053 539051
      544046 545041
 0.01 493666 493660 490657 488657 486660 485665 483666 481665
      479663 475664 471665 469667 470671 472673 476682 481678
      482684 482687 485687 487684 490677 493669 493666
 0.01 468656 466650 464642 461638 454640 445646 437654 420670
      412677 403684 398688 395692 392697 390702 387707 386713
      389719 393716 395714 398713 404712 409712 412708 415695
      418691 420688 423687 443681 448677 452673 456670 460664
      462662 466661 468656
 0.01 424734 424732 422732 420732 418733 417733 415736 417736
      419736 421736 422735 424734 424734
 0.01 417752 417750 415748 413745 411744 409746 407747 406750
      404752 404757 403760 404762 408763 409759 411757 414756
      416755 417752
 0.25 449660 449655 446654 443656 442658 439660 437663 436666
      435669 437672 440672 443670 445668 447665 448662 449660
 0.25 441750 440749 439750 438752 438753 437756 436758 435759
      435761 435763 436765 438764 439762 440760 440757 441757
      441755 441752 441750 441750
 0.25 441863 436863 434863 431862 427861 424859 422859 422862
      423867 422872 425872 426866 431865 434864 436866 438866
      441863
 0.25 428786 426786 424789 423791 422794 421796 421801 420804
      421807 422804 423801 424798 425796 426792 427788 428786

24HR QP VT 13/00Z
 0.01 513288 507279 504275 503276 502280 499285 493284 489280
      487275 483273 481274 478273 468272 464272 457271 453271
      448270 444267 439268 432273 429275 431269 433264 437260
      451249 460245 469244 479242 484243 488243 492246 496251
      502252 507255 510254 516256 524260
 0.01 449628 487655 490659 493664 498677 499682 501687 502696
      504712 501720 500726 499733 495740 489753 486760 483768
      481774 482782 484785 486783 490778 492774 495774 495776
      498782 501790 504804 505815 505820 504823 503827 501831
      498837 496840 492841 486839 483846 482854 483864 484872
      479881 476886 472890 467900 461900 460891 461885 460878
      457872 452869 443869 437870 431871 422877 414885 412880
      412870 410864 406859 399851 391839 388837 385836 383833
      378832 375837 371841 368847 364850 362854 357857 355857
      354854 359850 362846 364840 367834 369831 367829 366831
      357839 354841 352840 353833 357822 361817 367814 373807
      381798 388791 394788 396786 397782 398779 398773 397768
      395765 393761 393757 391746 392740 395734 391730 388728
      384729 379729 372730 366732 361735 345751 341756 337760
      325769 320772 315777 307785 301794 298796 295796 295794
      293788 294783 295777 298772 301766 305760 308754 310747
      312741 312737 315737 318736 320734 323729 328720 336711
      343702 351693 373675 381669 389662 409647 412644 416642
      422636
 0.01 388831 387829 385827 384829 385831 387833 388831
 0.01 386822 384820 383821 381821 379823 381825 383827 385825
      385824 386822
 0.01 376823 374823 372823 371824 370824 369826 371828 373828
      374826 376823
 0.01 290062 290058 288060 286062 284064 282066 280067 278071
      277073 278078 279078 280076 282074 284072 286070 288067
      288064 290062
 0.01 264792 258792 251794 246795 238796 233796 229799 233802
      239803 245801 250797 257796 262794 264792
 0.25 490260 491258 490256 489254 488254 487254 486254 485254
      483254 481254 481257 482259 483260 484261 485262 487262
      488262 489261 490260
 0.25 474715 472703 470696 469689 465680 460673 455663 453658
      449656 441656 437659 433660 430660 426662 423667 421671
      418681 416690 415700 415706 412712 412716 412723 412734
      412746 413762 417773 416778 415781 411790 409794 409802
      412810 415815 418817 450827 454827 458825 463822 466817
      469809 470802 468799 457782 455779 454774 456764 460756
      465746 469738 472730 474721 474715
 0.25 470873 470870 470868 469865 467863 465862 464862 462862
      461861 460861 459864 460866 460867 461869 462871 464873
      466875 466876 468877 469875 470873
 0.25 448860 444858 439857 434857 432857 427857 424857 419856
      419861 422863 426865 429863 432862 435863 438864 443864
      447862 448860
 0.25 398793 396792 395792 393792 391793 390794 390795 388796
      386797 385800 384800 384802 385803 387803 388802 389801
      390801 392799 393798 395796 396796 397795 398793 398793
 0.25 361720 361719 359720 358721 357723 358724 360723 360722
      361720 361720
 0.50 454703 454695 452686 449675 445671 442672 439676 438680
      436686 434691 428699 424709 422720 422725 422732 424737
      427738 428742 428746 427752 429764 430767 430774 429781
      430784 433783 436781 439776 440771 443766 444761 444757
      443749 444744 446740 447734 447727 446720 447714 450709
      454703
 1.00 441704 441701 441699 439699 437700 436702 435703 434704
      433706 433708 435710 437711 439710 440709 440708 441706
      441704 441704

24HR QP VT 14/00Z
 0.01 487614 493622 499633 504647 509662 512670 516684 520694
      521702 522712 521718 522726 518740 514743 511750 504757
      497763 490767 485768 480772 475780 474786 470791 466794
      461796 457799 456801 456806 456815 455823 454829 452833
      448833 443830 436827 430821 427817 423815 415819 408809
      406804 402799 399800 397803 391810 390816 386818 377815
      371815 368816 367818 363823 360826 358824 362819 364813
      367809 372806 375803 383796 389791 398788 403787 408784
      414774 415772 415767 415759 420749 422744 426743 429745
      434743 437739 437736 436734 432730 434726 437723 440718
      440715 440711 439702 436697 431694 428693 425694 419695
      416696 414701 413713 410723 408726 404730 400733 396736
      391738 388742 382743 379744 377746 371746 368750 358750
      347756 341759 336762 331761 328757 326751 327746 331742
      340736 345733 350729 355723 361717 376703 391690 400683
      405678 410675 413672 417671 421668 424667 423663 420659
      419652 417648 416643 424642 426640 427635
 0.01 540000 539981 536956 536951 535947 533941 530933 528928
      531923 533920 537920 539917 537914 535906 530898 522886
      518882 512879 499875 486866 481864 477860 474858 472853
      470851 466851 465846 461846 460849 456851 450847 443843
      440842 437841 432838 426834 423834 421832 417832 413830
      407833 401839 399843 400849 401854 402857 403861 405864
      407871 411877 418891 422899 426908 432921 433923 436927
      442933 447936 452941 459947 459960 459969 462977 467981
      469982 470989 470991 468994 465994 464996 465999 467002
      473006 480004 490996 491001 493005 496010 496016 498021
      497027 495031 493034 490036 481038 479040 478043 482049
      484051 488052 494048 499044 502034 503023 501020 501016
      502010 507006 509004 510999 519999 522000 524002 535003
      539003 540000
 0.01 454110 455108 454106 453105 453104 452102 451102 450101
      448100 446100 445101 444103 444104 446105 447106 448107
      449108 451109 451110 452111 454111 454110
 0.01 263782 262777 260778 255784 251789 247795 245803 243809
      246813 252808 256802 259796 261788 263782
 0.25 505696 505686 503676 499661 494647 489637 481629 477628
      472629 466631 460634 455643 448655 445659 445666 445683
      446689 447696 455704 457711 459719 460726 463733 469741
      472746 477748 482746 487743 496735 499731 501726 505712
      505705 505697 505696
 0.25 443762 442758 440756 438754 435754 430758 429764 429774
      431783 432785 433790 436788 439783 441777 441767 443762
 0.25 442815 441811 438810 431807 425805 430800 427795 427792
      426789 424789 419792 417796 416800 417806 419808 426809
      430815 435819 440819 442815 442815
 0.25 402701 398700 393701 388703 383706 377713 368720 360726
      357730 356733 358735 363736 369735 375733 379730 387725
      394717 400709 402701
 0.50 495694 495687 494680 492672 486652 481646 475646 463651
      456656 451662 450666 452671 457675 462681 464690 467703
      469711 474718 479719 482718 484712 488708 493701 495694

$$





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