Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 251851
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 26/0000 UTC THRU MAY 27/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS---MS VALLEY---TN VALLEY
AND OH VALLEY


NEGATIVELY TILTED HEIGHT FALLS IN SEVERAL STREAMS---INITIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS---WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THIS PERIOD
FROM THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY--AND THEN FARTHER
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OH VALLEY-TN VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
ACTIVE CONVECTION LIKELY AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS IN A BROAD
AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST---ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF
THE EVOLUTION WILL BE DECREASING WITH FORECAST HOURS.   MOST
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD---A CONTINUATION OF
THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS
AFTERNOON---WITH THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT.  THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF TIMING
ISSUES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS OF THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
 THE 1200 UTC HI RES ARW AND NMM BOTH SLOWED CONSIDERABLY FROM
THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE--ALTHOUGH THEY REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE.  THE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREA WAS FAVORED.   TO THE
NORTH OF THIS---ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO BREAK OUT TUESDAY
FROM THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY---OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AS BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO PRESS NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD
OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS.  LOW CONFIDENCE WITH DETAILS
HERE---WITH THE HI RES ARW FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY--WITH AREAL
AVERAGE MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVIER TOTALS.

EASTERN GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST/UPPER TN VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS

AHEAD OF THE HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY---A LEAD AREA
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN A MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS FROM
THE EASTERN GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST--NORTHEASTWARD INTO UPPER TN
VALLEY AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE AREA OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THERE IS THE USUAL CONFIDENCE WITH
DETAILS ACROSS THESE AREAS--BUT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS.

FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES---MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DAY 1 FROM IN THE VICINITY
OF LAKE SUPERIOR---EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO AND INTO
SOUTHERN QB.  MOIST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERRUNNING
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL PUSH A BROAD REGION OF OVERRUNNING
RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO---SOUTHERN QB AND INTO FAR NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE U.S. WILL BE FROM FAR
NORTHERN NH INTO NORTHERN MAINE WHERE .25-.50"+ AREAL AVERAGE
AMOUNTS DEPICTED.

GREAT BASIN---NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES

THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE VERY SLOW
MOVING CLOSED LOW MOVING FROM IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL TO
EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE INTO NORTHERN IDAHO DAY 1. CYCLONIC FLOW
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION.
WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS DAY
1--WITH AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE
.10-.25"+ RANGE POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 530229 531220 531214 529210 528203 533190 534175 529164
      527160 522156 514150 509143 503135 499127 489107 488101
      487095 482084 475078 465077 447070 435068 432067 432064
      432059 434057 436050 442051 446050 447041 444038 441035
      436035 434038 430042 426043 421043 417044 411045 408049
      402048 397046 389041 387043 386047 383049 380046 374045
      365045 360048 359053 357058 360058 371057 373060 369062
      369068 370073 374084 376089 379094 381099 379103 378111
      376116 378124 382129 381136 380144 380149 381156 381158
      380160 372165 370172 370176 372180 375182 379187 383189
      391193 395196 400198 403203 406206 411197 412195 415194
      418195 420193 427173 428173 429169 430163 426154 427146
      428137 431133 435132 437134 437138 438145 438153 440158
      443162 447165 451173 455182 458185 461184 466182 469182
      476183 477188 478192 476196 473198 466204 464206 464209
      467212 472214 477215 481214 487215 490219 492224 497234
      501243 506254 509258 514261 517261 521258 525252 528238
      530229
 0.01 523693 523686 521681 517672 514664 511657 506648 502642
      499638 497638 494635 490634 483633 475631 468630 463628
      456630 451635 444639 438646 434652 432655 432662 431670
      429677 433699 435711 436717 435724 432732 429738 427743
      423746 418740 416738 411739 406744 396755 388769 384775
      382782 374795 368801 362805 356811 350816 345823 342825
      337826 320825 307823 292818 281815 273812 267808 263807
      259806 258805 254808 257815 259818 257820 254824 253829
      255834 257836 262838 269840 285842 290842 292845 293849
      293854 290860 286864 281871 279874 280877 278881 276883
      269888 263892 260896 257905 257909 259911 270923 275925
      277927 277930 276935 275945 275955 274960 272962 271965
      271970 271981 271991 277997 282994 303970 309966 316964
      321976 324979 327980 336980 343979 349982 359994 364994
      364991 363987 362983 357975 355971 356968 366981 372984
      375986 376991 377994 377000 372005 377006 385003 390999
      396996 399998 402002 406010 406014 409017 417017 420015
      422011 427004 433997 434994 436988 437977 438968 439958
      440954 440949 444941 445937 446931 448924 452917 457909
      460906 462906 463909 463921 464927 465930 467935 471937
      477938 480936 482932 486924 490917 493910 497902 501893
      503884 505873 507863 508854 509843 511837 512833 514824
      515819 515812 517801 517793 518789 519764 518751 518746
      518740 520721 522706 522697 523693
 0.01 458825 458820 456815 452809 446797 442791 438787 430774
      425779 423782 422785 420793 417800 411812 415817 421820
      426822 430822 433823 445827 452828 455829 457827 458825
 0.25 506216 507214 507211 508209 508206 507203 507202 507200
      506199 504198 504200 503202 503205 503207 503210 503211
      503212 503215 503217 505216 506216
 0.25 509732 509723 508715 505710 503705 496697 489692 485690
      482687 477677 473663 467656 463654 459654 450659 446662
      442666 440670 438675 438681 439686 444696 448701 449707
      448713 449721 450729 452736 455750 458764 463774 474791
      477795 479801 482814 483823 483830 482845 483863 484871
      484879 483893 485899 487897 491885 494873 499849 502835
      503821 505809 507796 508780 507763 509732
 0.25 509159 508156 506151 502144 493133 483122 477118 473117
      470118 463120 459126 458131 459135 465137 472139 480142
      486146 491152 494158 495169 496179 498183 501185 505179
      507173 507167 509159
 0.25 458888 459884 458882 454881 449885 445888 441887 433883
      427880 421872 419867 422862 426855 431847 435840 435834
      434830 430828 425829 416831 406835 401835 397834 393828
      397820 396818 391818 385822 379824 376827 370834 367836
      365835 365831 368822 372815 369813 364814 357818 350823
      344829 337834 330835 322836 314838 307842 304845 302849
      300858 296866 292874 287881 278894 278900 280904 284910
      285915 286920 286927 287931 288938 287943 283952 277968
      275973 276976 279983 283985 286983 290974 295968 303963
      310959 317956 334952 351946 354944 357941 359936 360931
      353912 353908 354903 360899 367894 377893 386893 393897
      399902 405910 410916 414923 415928 418928 427925 440914
      445913 448910 451903 456895 458888
 0.25 429120 429118 427118 426117 424116 422116 420116 419116
      417118 418120 419121 419123 418126 419127 421128 421129
      423130 423129 424128 425127 426125 427124 428122 429121
      429120
 0.25 372851 371848 372845 370843 366844 362849 358852 352856
      346858 333859 325861 322864 330874 341882 354884 358885
      362883 364881 364876 368862 372851
 0.50 501788 501779 500770 496775 494780 490792 490799 487803
      484810 485814 486831 487849 491853 495849 497835 498822
      500815 500806 501791 501788
 0.50 497149 496143 494140 491136 486136 483131 480129 477129
      477132 480135 484136 487140 490144 493147 496149 497149
 0.50 484735 482727 480721 475710 471698 469692 465687 463685
      458689 457694 456700 454706 454712 456727 460741 462747
      465752 467757 469764 473775 478787 482789 485786 486780
      486771 483756 480751 477747 474741 473735 472721 476717
      480730 481736 484735
 0.50 399848 398843 396839 393835 389833 385833 383836 381845
      376855 372862 371867 372872 373877 377878 381877 384872
      388865 394858 399851 399848
 0.50 358830 357827 354826 348829 344834 338839 330840 324844
      325849 327852 335853 343852 349848 354842 357835 358830
 0.50 352934 352928 352924 348918 342913 340911 339906 338896
      334891 329886 324881 323876 321874 317869 315858 311853
      308855 307858 306863 304865 300872 295876 290881 288884
      287889 288896 290904 292911 291920 291925 292929 294932
      294935 290943 290947 288949 281963 279972 281977 282980
      286977 290970 294966 299962 312955 319952 326949 330949
      337947 347942 351937 352934
 1.00 342934 343930 342925 339923 337923 334923 332925 330928
      329930 328932 327937 328940 330941 334942 337941 339939
      340936 342934
 1.00 318943 318939 317937 314935 310936 305939 301941 296945
      294951 295956 297957 301957 307954 311952 316948 318943

$$





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