Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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269
FXUS04 KWBC 200701
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
201 AM EST MON FEB 20 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 20/1200 UTC THRU FEB 21/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



...SRN PLAINS TO MID-UPPER MS VALLEY...

STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECION HAS ERUPTED OVER THE SRN PLAINS IN AN
LOADED AIRMASS IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING SW UPR TROF INTERCEPTING
DEEPENING RETURN FLOW FROM FROM THE WRN GULF THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS. THERE IS ALSO A MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONNECTION ALOFT FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL ERN PACIFIC EVIDENT IN LATEST BLENDED SATELLITE
LOOPS. WAVES INDUCED ALONG THE BANDED CONVECTION ARE FEEDING ON
THE DEEPENED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY/UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND
ENAHNCED JET SUPPORT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DETAIL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE N/S UPR TROF AXIS EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS WITH THESE DIFFERENCES INVOLVING HOW QUICKLY THE TROF
SPLITS AS IT MOVES ACRS THE PLAINS. THE NRN PORTION OF THE TROP
LIFTS NEWD WITH ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF NRN STREAM IMPULSE ENERGY TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS PERIOD. WITH THIS FLOW...HEIGHT FALLS AND
DIFLUENCE SHOULD COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE LEAD THETAE ADVECTION TO
SUPPORT A BAND OF MDT RAIN/SHOWERS ACRS THE REGION. WEAKENING
ACTIVITY TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MON EVENING AS
SRN PORTION OF UPR TROF UNDERGOES TRANSITION TO A CLOSED LOW BUT
LINGERING SUPPORT AND MOISTURE SHOULD COMBINE TO SUPPORT SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ERN TX/OK AND ESPECIALLY SERN TX INTO LA THAT
MAY PRODUCE SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS.


...N-CENTRAL CA INTO THE PAC NW...

A MAJOR PCPN EVENT THREAT REMAINS ON TAP. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND MODELS STILL STRONGLY INDICATE THAT A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ENEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH THE OREGON COAST BY MON MRNG. AHEAD/UNDERNEATH OF THIS
FEATURE...YET ANOTHER WELL DEFINED AND LONG FETCH ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER PLUME WITH ORIGINS WELL PAST HAWAII INTO THE SUBTROPICAL
W-CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL BE DIRECTED WITH MAIN FOCUS INTO THE CA
COAST INVOF SFO BAY REGION WITH INITIAL WARM FRONTAL BNDRY AS 85H
WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 40KTS WITH PWS NEAR 1.25+ INCHES FOCUS INTO
THE AREA MON MRNG. AMSU MICOWAVE DATA OFFERS SOME EMBEDDED .3"/HR
RATES THAT COULD LATER DOUBLE INLAND AIDED BY TERRAIN LIFT. AS THE
INITIAL WAVE MOVES INLAND ACRS THE PAC NW MON MRNG...THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT/BAROCLINIC BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP INVOF THE SFO
BAY REGION IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM DVLPG LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE NRN CA COAST
BY LATE MON AFTN AND MAIN EFFECTS SLAM INLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE. THE PROLONGED AND FOCUSED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PLUME IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER W/SW OR AND ESPECIALLY N-CENTRAL
CA. THIS INCLUDES A FOCUS FROM THE SFO BAY REGION EWD THROUGH THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY INTO THE SIERRA RANGE WITH DEEP LAYERED SWLY
FLOW PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SW FACING
MTN RANGE. DYNAMIC FORCING AND IMPRESSIVE MSTR PROFILES WILL BE
QUITE FAVORABLE IN SUPPORT FOR SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS
SUGGESTED BY A CONSENSUS OF HI RES GUIDANCE HERE THAT COULD REACH
IN EXCESS OF A HALF FOOT LIQUID LOCALLY OVER MOST FAVORED TERRAIN.
MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE REVOLVED AROUND SMALL N/S DIFFERENCES
IN WHERE THE MAIN QPF AXIS WILL SET UP ACRS THE BAY REGION...BUT
SPREAD CONTINUES TO DECREASE APPROACHING THE EVENT. THESE HEAVY
RAINS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RUNOFF ISSUES ACRS A RATHER BROAD
AREA OF CNTL/NRN CA GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS. FOR DETAILS ON
WINTER WEATHER...SEE THE WPC WINTER WEATHER DESK QPFHSD
DISCUSSION.

SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 564930 565920 565911 563905 563894 561886 560876 555861
      550849 548844 545840 540837 538831 533819 518808 509802
      499798 495797 490797 478798 455798 448799 445801 439803
      435805 423810 416821 411830 406839 395860 389869 387874
      384877 368894 364899 358900 345903 333903 328901 322901
      317899 311899 300898 292898 286899 274903 262905 254910
      244915 237923 233931 231943 233956 235963 240966 247976
      256981 264985 277985 287983 296979 306974 312972 320972
      327972 336973 341973 345972 356970 364966 373962 377959
      382958 394955 400957 408958 417961 426966 436971 441974
      444975 445978 447982 449988 450996 451002 451008 453008
      457011 463008 467005 478002 481002 483000 489000 493999
      499998 503996 507991 510986 512981 513975 515970 518963
      520961 522963 529974 532979 537980 539982 542982 545977
      551970 558963 560960 561955 562945 564930
 0.01 517265 517254 516244 515239 512234 510230 509226 510222
      511218 512216 513209 517202 520191 519186 518181 516177
      517172 518167 520163 518159 515155 508148 497136 493128
      489119 488116 485116 481117 477114 475102 477098 476091
      470089 467092 466096 463097 460095 457093 452091 445089
      437088 433088 429085 425083 422087 422093 422098 421101
      418102 416100 413098 410094 409091 405091 403095 403098
      403104 400106 393111 390114 392118 395122 399122 407122
      412129 416137 411143 409147 407150 399153 396156 396163
      397166 397173 393179 389182 386183 376180 368177 364176
      360177 356179 354184 355190 357194 360197 359200 355199
      352197 350193 348190 345181 340186 338191 339197 339203
      340207 345215 356227 369238 373240 376242 385246 407253
      417255 426254 441254 456254 465253 470254 473254 479255
      481257 487259 491258 503268 517265
 0.25 547901 547891 547882 546876 544869 538856 535849 531844
      524836 516832 507828 501828 496830 493833 490831 489827
      490823 481816 470811 466810 459810 451816 443825 436834
      426852 421866 416877 411885 404893 400898 398904 394908
      390911 382916 373921 364927 361927 360925 365921 374904
      371904 369906 366909 364916 359917 354919 348919 337917
      331915 328913 322909 317907 311905 306905 295908 284910
      273913 264917 255921 246927 242931 239938 236943 236947
      237952 240955 244958 251964 253968 257970 268972 279972
      285971 291970 304966 318964 329962 348955 366947 378942
      383939 386935 390931 395928 398928 401930 401934 402938
      405940 411941 421939 427939 433939 443941 455943 462944
      466943 468941 470939 473939 473943 472946 470951 469959
      469967 470971 474971 480970 486967 493962 500955 503951
      505943 511930 512921 514913 518909 521907 529912 534914
      539913 542912 545908 547901
 0.25 505176 505171 504166 501163 497160 487156 477150 470144
      462140 456138 452136 449131 450124 454113 454103 453097
      450095 447095 434093 427089 425093 426098 427103 423105
      417112 412112 409112 407110 408112 408115 413117 417120
      419126 424134 425139 425148 426153 428156 435164 439171
      441175 441180 440187 442191 445193 449194 453191 455187
      458185 466190 468194 467200 459203 457202 455206 448211
      439212 434213 430210 425202 421193 421188 420180 420174
      418169 419164 422162 423160 420156 418154 415153 412155
      409161 409169 409172 405175 403176 401179 401186 398189
      393190 385188 377184 368180 364179 359181 357184 358188
      361192 368200 369203 366207 357205 351204 347201 347196
      345193 345202 349211 356220 363227 371234 388242 396247
      407250 417251 428250 462245 471246 481248 484234 492226
      494220 494213 493207 491201 491196 493192 498185 505176
 0.25 494143 494140 493137 492137 491135 490134 489134 488133
      486132 484131 483132 482133 481135 482138 483140 483141
      485143 486144 487144 488144 490145 491145 492145 493143
      494143
 0.25 477200 479198 479195 479193 479190 478189 478187 477185
      477184 476183 474184 474185 473186 472188 472191 472193
      471196 471198 472200 472201 473202 475202 477200 477200
 0.25 479932 477931 476932 475930 474929 472928 471927 469926
      468927 469929 470930 471931 472932 473932 474933 476932
      477933 479933 479932
 0.50 493168 493166 490163 486162 483161 480160 477160 473160
      472163 474165 478166 481167 484167 487169 489171 492171
      493168
 0.50 486218 484214 479212 474211 469211 465212 459212 453213
      437220 429223 423227 419228 419224 420221 418214 414205
      409198 404196 399196 388192 372183 367182 362181 359185
      362190 368198 373204 373209 371211 366211 359208 354208
      353212 357219 363226 371232 390241 398245 407248 416249
      425249 442246 459243 466240 467239 466236 463231 463226
      466223 473221 480218 486218
 0.50 502883 502877 501873 496865 487856 481852 476846 472841
      474833 472825 468818 465816 462816 455820 451826 447833
      445836 445840 448843 449848 441861 433873 428879 425886
      423890 421893 415897 410901 407906 414906 422909 429910
      438909 446910 453908 469905 473904 475907 479914 483918
      491919 494919 496917 497909 495900 494895 495892 496888
      499886 502883
 0.50 463176 460175 456172 454167 452161 452155 450150 444142
      441130 436128 433131 431134 431139 431147 432153 435157
      438161 443164 446168 448173 450179 453181 458181 462178
      463176
 0.50 451112 449102 446098 441098 437099 434096 428091 426092
      427096 430099 430102 428105 425108 422119 423124 427124
      430122 433119 436114 438115 441118 445118 451112
 0.50 369941 367938 364938 356939 350938 345937 343935 340929
      339925 336923 329921 324917 320913 312910 306909 299910
      283913 270917 258924 246931 243935 240943 241951 248953
      253956 256958 258961 263964 270967 276968 284968 297963
      313960 327958 334957 342954 354949 362945 367943 369941
 1.00 455238 454235 451234 445235 440238 437239 433238 428235
      420232 415229 415217 410214 407208 403203 396199 385192
      373186 366184 363185 362187 366192 371197 375201 377208
      377211 374212 367214 360211 356211 356214 360220 365225
      369229 377232 390239 402245 409246 416247 422247 429245
      440243 448241 455238
 1.00 448158 446153 445150 442146 440141 438136 437134 435136
      434140 434145 435150 437155 441158 446158 448158
 1.00 453898 454896 453894 452894 451893 449891 448891 446891
      445892 444892 443894 443895 442897 442899 443900 444901
      445902 446902 448901 449901 450901 451900 453899 453898
 1.00 345947 345945 342944 334944 322943 324938 322931 321926
      317921 313918 309915 303914 295915 283917 272921 262925
      254930 246937 244942 244945 245947 270951 275960 281962
      286962 308957 332953 340951 345947
 1.50 428242 426237 421234 416233 411230 413226 414221 413218
      409215 406210 399203 390197 381191 371186 366186 367191
      374198 377202 378208 376214 371215 366215 362213 358212
      359217 367225 371228 377230 387235 393237 397241 401243
      408244 418245 424244 428242
 1.50 405229 405225 404221 402220 399219 397217 394216 392216
      388217 389222 391224 392226 396228 399228 403229 405229
 1.50 314952 315949 314946 311944 310942 311937 312929 311923
      308920 306918 302917 293918 277923 269925 261929 254933
      249937 248941 249945 252946 257946 266945 271944 275945
      277949 278953 280956 285958 293958 301956 314952
 2.00 425241 423237 420235 416234 411234 407236 403236 398236
      398239 402242 408242 413243 417243 422244 425241
 2.00 411223 411221 410219 409220 409223 411225 411223
 2.00 405217 407215 406212 404209 398203 386196 373188 369187
      369191 373196 378202 380211 379215 374215 367216 363214
      358214 363220 369226 376229 384232 387233 389231 386224
      385220 387216 389214 393214 399216 405217
 2.00 309949 306941 302939 301937 306935 305928 307924 304921
      299920 294921 288922 285925 281931 281943 283952 287955
      290956 299954 307952 309949
 2.00 275931 272928 266928 263930 259932 255934 253937 252941
      254944 258943 263942 266940 270938 273935 275931
 3.00 420240 420238 419237 418236 416236 415236 414238 415239
      417240 419240 420240
 3.00 403212 399206 394203 389199 384196 379193 374190 371191
      375196 378200 382204 386209 392211 398213 403212
 3.00 383227 382223 379221 374218 372218 366218 363216 361216
      364219 368222 371225 376226 381229 383227
 3.00 294947 292947 291947 292948 294948 294947
 4.00 398211 399208 397206 394204 391202 386199 382196 379194
      374193 377196 380200 383203 386206 390208 395211 398211
 4.00 375223 375222 374220 373220 372219 370220 369222 371223
      373224 375223 375223
 5.00 397208 395207 392204 390203 387201 386200 382199 381197
      380198 382200 384202 387204 389206 392207 395209 397208

$$





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