Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 211832
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 22/0000 UTC THRU OCT 23/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE CLOSED
LOW EVOLUTION INVOLVING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCD DEEPENING SFC LOW ALONG THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF
THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BACK THE LOW LVL FLOW FROM
SRLY TO ERLY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WED. THIS WILL DRIVE A
PLENTIFUL AMT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND
THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
IMPACTING PORTIONS OF ERN AND NRN NEW ENGLAND AND WITHIN THE NOSE
OF THE STRONGEST ATLANTIC LOW LVL JET WHICH IS PROGGED TO REACH
NEAR 50 KTS BY LATE WED. THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH LATE WED...WITH HEAVIER AMTS EXPECTED
BEYOND THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF THOUGH IS THE WETTEST SOLN FOR
THE NORTHEAST AND FAVORS 2 TO 3 INCH AMTS WHICH APPEAR CONNECTED
TO IT HAVING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW LVL JET. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF
THE CLOSED LOW...A SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLN SEEM REASONABLE...BUT WPC
QPF FOR NOW DID NOT GO QUITE AS WET AS THE ECMWF.

A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...A STRONG VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
WRN PA AND NRN WV ON ITS WAY ONTO THE CNTRL MID-ATLANTIC REGION
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED. A RATHER CONCENTRATED AREA OF MDT TO
LOCALLY HVY SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS AS IT
CROSSES SRN PA/MD/VA/DE AND NJ. A SOLN HERE CLOSER TO THE 12Z
GFS/12Z UKMET AND 12Z GEM REGIONAL WAS FAVORED WHICH TENDS TO HAVE
STRONGER SUPPORT FROM THE HI-RES MODELS.


...SOUTH FLORIDA...

FAVORABLE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS INTERACTING WITH A
POOL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL FOSTER NUMEROUS AREAS OF SHWRS/TSTMS...AND ESP NEAR THE FL
KEYS THROUGH WED. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OUT OVER THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND CLOSER TO A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.


...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE NRN ROCKIES OUT INTO THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED. SOME SHWR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH THE
ENERGY AS IT EJECTS OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD
INCREASE ENOUGH BY LATE WED OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS FOR A FEW
CLUSTERS OF LOCALLY HEAVIER SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. WPC LEANED TWD A
CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS SYS.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE LATEST IR/WV SAT IMAGERY INDICATES A MOIST AND STRONG
TRANS-PACIFIC JET POSITIONED UNDERNEATH A WELL-DEFINED GULF OF AK
VORTEX ATTM. THE JET ENERGY IS AIMING FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A COLD FRONT...AND THIS COUPLED WITH A
SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION INVOLVING THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE
PLUME/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER...IT IS EXPECTED THAT VERY HVY RAINS WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHWEST AND ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL RANGES OF WA/OR
AND INTO THE CASCADES. IN FACT...THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES A 50 TO
60 KT SWLY H85 JET AIMED INTO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE 12Z GFS
INDICATES MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES OF 4 TO 5 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL
AIMED INTO SWRN WA AND WRN OR AT 12Z ON WED. THE DEEP MOISTURE
TRANSPORT COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHICS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
COLD FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS SHOULD YIELD RAINFALL
AMTS THROUGH LATE WED OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE WA/OR COASTAL
RANGES AND INTO THE CASCADES...HOWEVER HEAVIER AMTS LOCALLY
EXCEEDING 5 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED ESP FOR THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA
AND THE NRN WA CASCADES WHERE STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT/UPSLOPE
IS EXPECTED. WPC QPF LEANED A BIT MORE STRONGLY TWD THE HIGHER-RES
12Z GEM REGIONAL AND THE 12Z ARW/12Z NMMB SOLNS WHICH DETAIL
REASONABLY HEAVY AMTS FOR THESE AREAS.


...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A WEAKENING MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A MODEST FEED
OF MOISTURE LIFTING UP THE RIO GRANDE VLY FOR AN AREA OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER SERN NM AND OUT INTO A LARGE PORTION
OF WRN TX. LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT
STRONG...BUT SOME LGT TO MDT RAINFALL AMTS ARE ANTICIPATED WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS AND 12Z UKMET SOLNS.

ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 23/00Z
 0.01 433633 451641 455646 460651 464656 466662 473670 472683
      476701 476705 474708 470713 469716 469721 468725 464730
      459734 457740 456750 454755 449759 440765 437770 436778
      436785 435791 434795 430800 427803 425805 424808 423816
      422820 420823 416823 411821 406817 404815 402816 399821
      388822 383821 378825 374828 369829 367827 365825 365821
      364816 368811 372808 380800 382794 382791 380787 376782
      372779 362776 360772 362766 361764 359763 353759 348755
      346750 346743 347737 355729 360725 367722 373719 379718
      382705 383699 386694 392682 395676 399672 401668 402666
      402661 401652 400643
 0.01 231994 236992 241994 245998 247002 256008 264013 266019
      268027 275038 278042 279044 278046 273056 275062 278066
      286070 291073 295072 306068 308067 312067 314073 325083
      330083 334080 340072 344074 346070 342067 340065 340063
      344060 348059 361058 368055 374054 379056 383056 385055
      384049 380046 369050 367052 364051 357049 355044 355039
      348031 353027 358023 366014 378010 384009 389006 398002
      401001 402004 398008 392015 391023 393027 397030 402028
      405028 409026 413023 418020 426021 432021 435019 444012
      454006 460006 464004 472999 476996 479995 482995 495995
      499993 502988 506983 509975 510971 512970 517965 525960
      525954 523949 512948 499949 493951 487949 472948 465949
      460950 454950 449952 439955 429958 420961 408965 386976
      367985 356988 350989 346990 341992 337995 329001 323004
      317006 311009 305013 301015 298016 296014 292011 289008
      279002 275994 269986 268982 270980 275977 279972 278966
      276964 272963 264963 255957 248951 238951 234953 232955
 0.01 525257 522247 520242 519234 519231 520227 526227 531227
      534222 536218 537214 538206 538198 536192 534184 529175
      528169 525164 517158 514154 509155 501150 465156 463160
      464167 461173 457177 453181 450180 448182 443186 448188
      450193 447198 442200 437212 429216 422222 420223 421229
      416229 411231 405241 403246 403251 408260 413264 418266
      429267 447267 452266 459267 463267 467270 472273 475277
      481285 484291 487296 490302 494304 498306 501305 508304
 0.01 542076 541069 538066 532064 535057 536048 533042 529038
      525036 515032 503031 497030 494028 491028 485029 479029
      471031 467036 465042 467047 470049 474049 477049 479047
      485048 487050 490051 493056 494062 492070 489073 486072
      478070 473068 469070 467072 464072 458071 453071 449075
      444072 445076 448080 449083 450087 447094 443096 437095
      434095 430093 426093 428097 430100 429101 427104 426108
      431109 434114 437113 442117 444124 446126 448124 454125
      454132 457131 462132 466130 468128 472130 472135 473136
      480136 484138 486133 481132 478129 476122 479116 481113
      484113 490113 494110 498106 510108 518104 527095 532093
      535089 538087 539083 542076
 0.01 469200 469192 470183 470178 468175 465176 464179 460183
      455186 453188 452193 452198 450200 449204 450207 453209
      455207 459203 461202 463203 465204 467202 469200
 0.01 418787 417786 415786 414788 415790 416792 417790 418787
 0.01 417076 416067 415063 412061 408056 403054 400055 394059
      390061 386060 384061 385063 385067 382069 377064 374062
      370061 366061 364063 367068 370071 372074 373078 373084
      383090 392096 396096 397093 400091 405091 410087 413079
      417076
 0.01 276805 277797 276789 271786 263787 251788 240793 235796
      232799 228803 226809 224820 224829 223835 224850 227864
      229869 233873 237876 243874 248873 252869 253863 253854
      253850 254847 257843 259838 258832 255826 255820 256812
      258810 260811 263816 265824 265828 267831 269831 271829
      274819 276805
 0.25 534209 535203 534198 529189 518172 515169 512168 503167
      494169 489169 487173 484186 483193 481198 473203 467208
      459209 453213 445218 441220 438224 432229 427235 423236
      417236 414239 413245 416253 419255 425257 435258 444259
      453258 461259 471260 477262 481265 487270 493279 499287
      503290 506289 512284 517274 519269 520259 520252 518247
      517236 514226 513221 513217 514214 518214 522217 526219
      530218 534209
 0.25 463685 462679 460672 455661 452656 448651 440646 432643
      422642 416644 411649 408654 407660 407673 406679 403683
      399687 396693 391704 389714 386719 384723 379726 372729
      367732 363735 361739 361744 365751 366757 369763 376771
      383775 388777 393780 396779 400777 401774 402761 406751
      408749 409753 412754 414753 415754 418759 420765 423767
      424765 425757 424754 424750 421751 419749 416743 414741
      410740 408737 409731 412721 415717 419713 425712 429718
      431723 435727 439729 444728 454724 458721 460718 461714
      462701 463685
 0.25 457966 455962 452960 449960 436963 426966 416971 405977
      402981 403986 405988 408988 411987 416984 420982 428982
      438977 448973 454971 457966
 0.25 408072 409070 407068 403067 400069 397071 394074 390072
      388074 388079 389082 391083 397083 399080 402076 404072
      408072
 0.25 396796 395795 393794 391795 390795 388796 387797 386798
      385799 384800 383801 383802 383804 383805 385806 387805
      389804 390803 392802 393801 393800 395798 395797 396796
 0.25 351009 352003 349000 346001 343004 340007 337009 329012
      322017 316024 314027 311029 304034 298040 296044 298048
      298052 301055 310059 319057 322054 327054 330056 335056
      336053 331052 327051 324047 325040 326036 332030 339024
      345018 350011 351009
 0.25 273801 273799 273797 273795 271793 270793 269793 269794
      268795 267796 267798 267800 268801 269802 270803 272803
      273801
 0.25 231983 237983 242983 246985 250986 253986 256982 257976
      257972 257970 255966 252963 248961 243960 237961 234962
      231963
 0.25 250812 249805 246804 245805 241809 238810 236808 233810
      231814 229828 227834 227841 230854 232859 236862 241860
      243855 244848 242841 241834 241829 243828 246827 248825
      249818 250812
 0.50 532208 532201 530197 526190 519181 517177 513174 506171
      500173 491175 489188 488193 487196 481202 478203 473206
      470209 467210 462210 459211 454216 451221 449229 446231
      441231 435234 428238 419240 417244 419249 427253 435254
      445255 454254 462254 471256 479259 484262 487265 497279
      500283 506285 509283 511279 516272 517267 518259 518253
      516246 514237 513231 511227 507219 506213 506205 514203
      519206 523210 529212 532208
 0.50 481226 481224 480223 479224 478225 479226 480227 481226
 0.50 459692 458680 455670 451664 447658 441654 435651 428649
      423651 416655 413663 414672 417679 422683 427689 429699
      433708 437714 443716 451715 454712 456708 458700 459692
 0.50 437969 435967 431967 428968 426968 423970 421971 419974
      419976 422977 426977 429976 431975 435973 436971 437969
 0.50 405696 403694 401695 397702 395710 392718 388723 382728
      377732 374740 372749 373758 376765 382768 388771 394770
      396762 397757 398754 401747 403736 404728 403718 405698
      405696
 0.50 231979 233980 235979 239978 242978 246979 250979 252978
      252976 253972 252968 250966 248965 244964 241964 237964
      234965 232967
 0.50 238852 239846 237840 236836 235830 234825 232828 231833
      230838 230844 232850 233854 237854 238852
 0.50 235822 234820 233819 233820 233822 234824 235822
 1.00 514264 515255 515248 513242 511233 510229 506224 501212
      497210 491208 480207 475208 472211 461214 458217 455224
      455228 453231 448233 431241 428242 428245 430248 434248
      446249 456249 468251 480255 486259 489262 496271 501276
      504276 505273 505267 507264 511265 514264
 1.00 487233 488229 487225 484223 481222 478222 475222 472224
      471226 473227 477228 479231 481234 482236 484235 487233
 1.00 452691 452684 450677 447668 440661 433657 429656 426657
      424660 423665 423672 426676 431684 435693 439702 443704
      446702 449699 452694 452691
 1.00 398740 398730 397726 395724 391726 386730 381734 380741
      383748 385756 388761 392757 394751 397746 398740
 1.50 511260 513254 513249 511240 508232 504225 501218 499214
      497213 488210 481209 477209 475211 470216 466216 463218
      459219 458222 461225 464223 468223 475220 481221 489223
      490226 491230 492238 487236 484238 481237 477231 475229
      471229 464230 459232 453233 446236 443239 443243 474249
      479251 486256 492262 496269 500270 501268 500260 497252
      499249 501251 505258 510260 511260
 1.50 446688 446680 445673 443669 439665 437663 433662 428662
      427669 430675 432679 435683 437688 439692 443693 446689
      446688
 1.50 396736 395733 393729 391729 390730 387733 385735 384738
      384742 386747 387749 390750 392748 394745 395743 396738
      396736
 2.00 510257 512253 512249 510244 509237 506232 501222 498216
      494214 488212 484212 480211 475212 474217 480220 485221
      488221 491224 493235 495241 500245 505253 508256 510257
 2.00 499266 495251 493243 489238 486238 484241 481240 480236
      476231 469230 464232 458235 451234 446238 445240 447243
      455243 461243 467245 479248 484251 489257 493261 498267
      499266
 2.00 470218 470217 468217 467217 468219 469219 470218
 2.00 442681 442679 442677 441674 440672 439670 438670 437668
      436668 434667 432667 431670 432672 433674 434674 435676
      436678 437680 438682 439682 440684 442683 442681
 2.00 392741 392739 391736 390736 389737 388739 388742 389744
      390744 391743 392741
 3.00 507245 506240 504236 502230 501226 499222 496218 493218
      492220 492225 493230 495234 497239 500243 503245 507245
 3.00 492256 493253 493251 492249 492248 492245 491245 490242
      489240 487240 487241 485243 485246 486248 487250 488252
      488253 490254 491255 491256 492256
 3.00 489219 488216 487215 485215 484214 482213 480213 479212
      478213 477215 478217 480218 481219 483219 485219 486220
      488219 489219
 3.00 478243 479239 478236 476232 474232 473232 470233 467234
      464233 462236 461238 463240 466240 468240 470241 473243
      476244 478243
 4.00 498232 498229 498227 498224 497221 496220 495220 494220
      493222 493225 493228 494228 495231 496233 498232
 4.00 487218 487217 485217 483216 482215 480215 479215 480216
      482217 483217 485218 487218 487218
 4.00 478240 478238 477236 477235 476233 474233 473234 472236
      473239 475241 477241 478240
 4.00 467237 465236 464236 463236 463237 465238 467237
 5.00 496228 496226 496223 494222 494223 494225 494226 495228
      495229 496228
 5.00 477238 477237 476235 475235 474237 475238 477238 477238

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