Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 181823
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 19/0000 UTC THRU JUL 20/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...GULF COAST NWD THRU THE TN/OH VALLEYS...

THE UPR TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ACRS PARTS
OF THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS PD WITH WEAKENING 7H-5H CIRC
LIFTING NEWD ACRS THE OH VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT MRNG.  SRN PORTION
OF UPR TROF WILL BECOME FAIRLY BROAD WITH TIME...ALLOWING GENL
VEERING OF 85H FLOW ACRS THE GULF COAST REGION THRU THE PD.  AS A
RESULT..SHOULD SEE TWO MAIN COMPONENTS TO PCPN PATRN ACRS THIS
REGION WITH ONE AREA OF MDT TO SPOTTY HEAVY PCPN..MORE
SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN..FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY..WHILE
THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL REMAIN IN THE VERY MOIST/HIER
CAPE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST.  WITH GENL VEERING OF 85H
FLOW AND HI PW AXIS OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES FOCUSING ALONG THE
CNTL/ERN GULF COAST...EXPECTED STRIPE OF VERY HEAVY RAINS WITH
POTNL TRAINING TO FOCUS PRIMARILY FROM SE LA INTO EXTREME SW AL
AND THE FL PANHANDLE.  GLOBAL MODELS..ESPECIALLY THAN NAM CONTINUE
TO UNDER DO PCPN AMOUNTS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND REMAIN HEAVIER
FARTHER N AS A RESULT. EVEN LATEST HI RES MODELS SEEM TO BE
SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE AND SLOW WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF
COAST..BUT ARE CERTAINLY MORE PREFERABLE.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINS THIS PD MAY TEND TO SHIFT OFFSHORE
FRI NIGHT..ESPECIALLY IF LARGE RAIN COOLED AREA OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND WEAK MESO LOW OVER MS PROVIDES ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO SHIFT
LEADING EDGE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BNDRY  FARTHER SOUTH.
THEREFORE DESPITE THE HI RES RUN PSBLY UNDERDONE ACRS SE LA INTO
THE FL PANHANDLE...DID NOT INCREASE THERE AMOUNTS AND GENLY
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN
GEM FOR AMOUNTS.  POTNL WILL STILL EXIST FOR SOME VERY HEAVY SHORT
TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS..ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PD. WITH ISOLATED
HEAVIER TOTALS QUITE POSSIBLE. FARTHER N ACRS THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS...SOME POCKETS OF VERY WEAK INSTABILITY MAY EXIST AHEAD OF
UPR TROF TO SUPPORT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
RAINS..THOUGH IN GENL A PERIOD OF LONGER DURATION MDTLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH HEAVIEST FROM NRN AL INTO PARTS OF ERN
KY/SRN WV.  FINALLY...LINGERING VERY HI PWS ALONG THE TX COAST
WILL ACT OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND WEAKENING SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT TO SUPPORT SCTD TSTMS..SOME WITH POTNLY HEAVY RAINS GIVEN
WEAKENING STEERING FLOW ALOFT.  CONFIDENCE IN MODEL QPF DETAILS
HERE IS RATHER LOW WHICH ARGUED FOR TAKING MORE OF AN ENSEMBLE
APCH.


NOT A LOT OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
NATION THIS PERIOD.  THE ONLY PLACE LIKELY TO SEE AMOUNTS NEAR A
0.25 INCH OR SO WILL BE THE EXTREME NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS
VALLEY..ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY PROGRESSIVE ALBERTA H5 TROF AND
THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WHICH DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.  MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND
THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL TOTALS
DOWN. OTHER SCTD TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
AND AHEAD OF LEE TROF/DRY LINE OVER THE SRN HI PLAINS IN WEAK MSTR
RETURN..AS WELL AS WWD THRU THE HIER TERRAIN OF GT BASIN/SIERRA
AND MTNS OF SRN CA.  FOR MOST OF THESE AREAS..CONTINUITY WAS
MAINTAINED GIVEN GENLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 508300 503298 500295 492289 488284 485279 481270 476269
      474265 472259 472252 473249 471247 468243 463240 461240
      462233 465233 467235 469235 472233 477233 481235 485234
      485229 482226 478224 472222 471216 476209 480205 483203
      492201 499206 501207 505203 503197 500192 488181 482173
      481168 483166 490162 492161 493158 494153 487146 483143
      480138 487138 491137 494140 497145 501144 505140 507135
      509130 510124 511115 512109 514103 516099 518098 521098
      525102 534119 537120 539118 544119 548120 552124 553135
      552144 551151
 0.01 559112 554108 551103 544093 539081 531072 521073 519067
      519057 521051 524046 531037 536034 542035 547036 553038
      558042 561047 565060
 0.01 562855 559850 554847 547843 538844 534850 529855 524857
      519858 515858 512861 509862 505864 500862 495863 491866
      486871 476883 466895 447919 441927 437935 436940 436945
      436951 438954 433961 431967 428977 428980 433980 440986
      442987 441989 436990 431992 424996 418001 413003 410007
      409011 410016 411019 432026 438031 438038 439040 444042
      448048 459062 462065 466065 469065 471063 473061 471055
      469049 468045 465040 461033 456026 455022 453017 451015
      447013 444011 442010 443008 448003 453000 465990 478980
      492976 501976 507978 514983 520987 528000 535005 539006
      542004 545003 547000 551994 555985 558975 562966 565955
      567945 568933 568927 567923 566917 567913
 0.01 525886 524884 522884 521887 522889 524888 525886
 0.01 464971 462971 459974 455977 452979 448982 445984 444986
      447987 450985 455983 457981 460978 463974 464971
 0.01 453806 454801 453795 452787 450782 445778 440774 434772
      426772 419772 396785 391786 387786 381787 375791 370794
      360801 349806 340808 337809 333810 325812 317812 308813
      304813 301812 287807 277802 271800 268799 264799 258798
      263795 270787 272781 270777 267775 263777 259778 257780
      252785 249790 244801 245809 249814 255816 264816 271817
      276819 278824 279831 281851 280860 277867 277903 276909
      277915 278925 279931 280935 279938 277945 272954 266967
      265971 262972 257977 253980 245981 241981 237983 235983
      235987 238992 241994 241999 242006 238011 232020 230025
      228032 227039 229047 232053 236057 240063 245067 251071
      258075 263078 266083 269089 273092 284098 290099 296097
      298095 299091 301084 298077 294073 288062 280051 271041
      270037 271033 276030 281026 285021 287016 287010 292004
      294997 298981 302965 305958 307954 307949 307932 309925
      314920 315914 312915 311912 312909 313903 314900 316897
      325897 332898 334899 333901 333904 333910 335913 339915
      342915 345913 350910 355905 359900 365887 370881 372876
      377866 380859 382855 385852 394844 401842 410841 418842
      427841 430838 433831 440829 443824 450816 453806
 0.01 401206 400203 396201 397196 399192 403169 404164 405156
      408147 404148 398147 394145 391146 388147 386152 390160
      389166 387171 386182 379184 376184 373181 363179 359181
      359184 361187 365190 374194 380200 384203 388205 395207
      401206
 0.01 408119 409101 408100 405105 400108 395105 385110 380110
      376116 372119 366119 364124 367129 371130 372132 374136
      376137 384129 387125 390124 393124 398127 400125 404125
      408119
 0.01 406056 393050 390044 391038 389043 384044 380044 378043
      377040 376037 374032 377029 382026 395020 396017 395013
      392011 388011 383014 380016 376017 371018 367018 358018
      355024 352028 350030 344032 340032 337030 324034 320037
      318040 318044 320046 325046 327050 327055 329057 345055
      349056 351059 355065 358069 362070 364063 368063 369066
      373074 376082 377087 378090 381084 384080 387079 392079
      395080 398074 402064 406056
 0.01 372720 371713 367709 363708 356710 348716 340724 333731
      327740 324743 320748 318752 316759 328775 315792 319792
      326790 336784 343777 349774 353773 358770 362766 370758
      373754 374749 369738 368732 370728 372720
 0.01 364157 363155 361156 361157 362157 364157 364157
 0.01 344173 343169 340166 336164 333162 327161 324158 321160
      323163 327166 330168 334167 339168 342173 344173
 0.01 341100 342098 340096 340095 338093 337093 335095 336097
      338098 340100 341100 341100
 0.25 558933 559926 558919 554917 550919 538933 525944 509949
      501951 495952 492954 489954 486957 483961 484964 487965
      492965 501964 510964 520964 538966 544963 550955 555948
      557943 558936 558933
 0.25 537210 538202 537194 535185 532179 527168 523163 521160
      518162 516168 512171 508175 508182 511197 515211 521223
      525225 529223 533220 537213 537210
 0.25 522264 518257 515247 507227 503220 498211 493210 488210
      481214 482218 485222 491229 499248 500251 500256 497254
      494249 489242 484243 482247 484256 489265 493274 498282
      511293
 0.25 470907 468905 467905 463907 462908 460911 458913 457917
      456920 459922 462920 463918 465915 467912 468910 470907
 0.25 460957 459956 457955 455957 454959 452962 451964 450966
      452967 454966 455964 456964 457962 459959 460957
 0.25 444810 442801 439795 434788 428786 411789 401791 393794
      382798 367806 355811 341819 330826 324830 321832 317832
      307825 303824 298825 294830 288841 287850 287860 286870
      285878 282896 281903 282911 284931 286941 285950 280964
      266988 266992 267995 275994 281992 284990 286988 291975
      296960 298943 299932 299922 301913 302907 306899 309894
      314890 320886 328884 336885 343887 350887 357883 361878
      378853 385843 389837 396832 411828 419827 427825 432823
      438820 442815 444810
 0.25 424817 424815 423813 422813 421812 419812 419813 419815
      420816 421818 423819 424817
 0.25 362740 362734 361729 355730 351736 347743 343750 340756
      339760 339762 342764 345763 354761 358755 361748 362740
 0.25 280072 281068 280066 277062 270055 262049 254045 245040
      239039 236043 237050 239055 242058 247060 258063 267066
      272070 276072 280072
 0.25 273807 272806 269804 267803 264802 261802 257803 255804
      252806 252808 253810 256810 259809 262808 265807 269808
      271808 273807
 0.25 267005 267002 266000 264001 262002 259004 256005 255008
      256011 258013 262013 263012 265010 266007 267005
 0.50 552938 553930 549930 545933 543936 541939 538943 535947
      535955 538959 541957 544954 547949 549947 551941 552938
 0.50 534206 534195 532187 528180 523174 520175 517178 515179
      513185 514189 517198 518207 522216 524219 528219 532214
      534206
 0.50 520271 514256 511247 508240 505234 501225 498218 494215
      490214 487216 485217 486220 492227 495233 499241 502249
      503257 503260 501261 498259 492253 491254 491259 497274
      501281 507286 514287
 0.50 434814 434811 434809 433807 433805 432804 431802 431801
      430802 429803 427804 427805 427807 428810 428812 428813
      429814 429817 430817 432817 433816 433815 434814
 0.50 425796 417792 404794 398795 394797 385806 345820 337827
      336834 333839 330845 327849 322851 318850 313849 309847
      305834 303832 299834 296837 292842 290847 289857 288872
      284898 284905 284910 286916 288924 289929 292931 295924
      296918 298906 300901 303896 307891 312888 321883 330879
      336877 342877 348879 354880 360872 372854 384836 391829
      395825 402823 413819 412806 414802 419800 423798 425796
 0.50 358748 357747 356747 355748 354749 353751 353752 353753
      353754 353755 355755 356753 357752 357750 358749 358748
 0.50 288972 289966 286967 283970 280972 277975 275978 272982
      272985 275988 277985 281981 284979 286976 288972
 0.50 260055 259053 256052 253051 250049 249048 245046 242046
      241046 242048 244050 247051 248053 252054 254055 257057
      260055
 1.00 530207 530203 529199 529196 526193 525190 524187 522186
      520188 520190 520194 521197 521202 522205 523208 526211
      528210 530207
 1.00 514277 514272 514269 514265 513261 511258 510255 507256
      507261 508264 508267 508272 510275 512278 514277
 1.00 382827 383823 380820 374822 368825 361825 358824 354825
      347827 344828 342831 340838 340843 341847 347846 348849
      346852 343858 343862 344866 351868 357868 360863 364857
      368851 375841 381828 382827
 1.00 323868 315859 311854 306850 305848 304843 302841 299842
      295848 293855 292862 291870 288885 287892 287902 289908
      294906 300895 309885 317875 320870 323868
 1.50 377832 376827 373829 369832 366836 365840 364843 361844
      361848 364849 367847 369844 372842 375838 376834 377832
 1.50 352833 352831 351830 350831 349831 348833 347833 346835
      346836 345838 345840 346842 348840 349840 350837 351835
      351834 352833
 1.50 314866 313861 310856 302851 299851 296855 294868 292879
      289891 289896 289903 292903 295899 302891 307883 312873
      314866
 2.00 311871 310858 306857 302856 298857 297862 294872 292882
      291892 290897 291902 294899 297895 302889 306882 310873
      311871
 3.00 306869 306863 302862 301864 297869 296875 294882 293889
      293894 295896 296893 300889 303884 305879 306871 306869
 4.00 303876 303871 301870 299872 298876 297878 297882 295885
      295889 298889 300886 301884 302882 303878 303876

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