Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 100854
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2017


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 10/1200 UTC THRU DEC 13/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

GT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY

BEHIND EXITING COASTAL LOW IN THE NORTHEAST THE ONLY PCPN OF ANY
CONSEQUENCE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND LIGHT SYNOPTIC
SNOWS ASSOCD WITH A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD ACRS
THE EXTREME NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT. OVER THE ERN
GT LAKES..FAVORABLE ALONG LAKE TRAJECTORIES WILL DVLP TO THE LEE
OF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE ON SUN/SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHING EWD INTO THE ERN GT LAKES REGION SUN NIGHT.  THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MDTLY STG SINGLE BANDED PLUMES OVER THE NE END
OF LAKE ERIE AND ERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO.  A CONSENSUS OF HI RES
MODEL RUNS AS USED HERE GIVEN THE HI MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE
BANDS.  ACRS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS REGION...THE GFS STILL
REMAINS A LITTLE FASTER AND FLATTER WITH CLIPPER S/WV DROPPING
SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION THOUGH ITS QPF
IS NOT THAT MUCH OUT OF LINE WITH A GENL MODEL COMPROMISE AS LIGHT
PCPN BAND IS MORE TIED TO THE TRACK OF ASSOCD WEAK SFC LOW WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACRS NORTHEAST ND TOWARD CNTL MN BY MON
MRNG.  CHANGES TO CONTINUITY WERE RELATIVELY MINOR..MAINLY SLOWING
THE SEWD ADVANCEMENT OF LIGHT WAA SNOWS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCD WARM FRONT.  FOR MORE DETAILS ON WINTER WEATHER...SEE
QPFHSD.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST...

TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS IN THE DAY 2/3 TIMEFRAME. THE
FIRST IS A SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ALONG THE EXISTING UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY MORNING AND OUT TO SEA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THE SECOND WAVE IS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT
AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT DIGS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA
ON MONDAY...CROSSES THE MIDWEST LATE MONDAY...AND REACHES MAINE BY
LATE TUESDAY.

00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WAS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
GUIDANCE FROM 09/12Z AND 09/18Z IN TERMS OF QPF.  LOOKING AT LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND H85 TEMPS...FELT THAT THE QPF TO THE LEE OF THE
GREAT LAKES WAS TOO LIGHT GIVEN SUCH LARGE DEL T VALUES.  IN THIS
AREA...THE WPC QPF WAS ABOVE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.

THERE WAS SOME MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES OVER THE UPSTATE NY/NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  THE 10/00Z RUN OF THE GFS SLOWED DOWN A BIT IN THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD AND WAS INCORPORATED
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF.  BY DAY 3...THE GFS SPED UP AND WAS GIVEN
DECREASING WEIGHTING ON DAY 3.  THE 10/00Z NAM WAS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT BUT ITS QPF
SOLN APPEARED TO BECOME TOO HEAVY OVER TOO BROAD OF AN AREA.  THE
WPC QPF WAS WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF AND
THEN INCLUDED VARYING WEIGHTING OF THE UKMET AND NAM/GFS.

SULLIVAN/BANN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 11/12Z
 0.01 545041 546034 545029 544018 542008 537000 533993 530984
      522965 514952 508947 503942 499923 492909 488903 483898
      478892 474890 473887 476885 478882 477878 477871 479867
      477865 475862 473861 473857 475854 474851 468847 465839
      464828 464822 465819 464808 463802 462798 462791 464787
      467780 469771 471766 470761 469754 468751 465738 466732
      465727 466723 468723 471724 474726 479725 481726 486725
      491719 493711 493702 499702 501699 500696 496686 493679
      491674 489669 491661 490654 488651 484641 481639 477638
      473638 470638 468640 458652 420693 428695 431695 434693
      444679 449678 452681 458685 461686 462691 457697 455700
      450703 444709 439714 438717 440719 443719 445722 443726
      440726 434726 429728 426731 430733 435731 438731 440732
      441734 440737 437738 432739 429742 427747 424754 425760
      424764 422765 420767 419771 414778 410783 398789 394790
      390793 384797 379802 375809 368814 366815 367818 381811
      386809 390806 395801 402796 406794 409796 411799 411803
      410807 409812 410816 411819 415819 418816 422816 441828
      443830 443834 443840 440847 438849 435848 434841 432833
      429831 428836 428841 426845 422853 417860 417863 419865
      429865 434864 438865 444866 448865 451867 457870 462875
      465883 450883 447881 442880 434880 429880 426882 425887
      425892 426906 427910 428916 431923 435928 444941 448947
      452954 458969 460973 463975 468980 470984 470989 472995
      472001 475013 478022 482029 488033 508053 514059 517059
      519057 520054 524053 532054 537052 542049 545041
 0.01 518268 519261 518259 514253 507251 506261 503262 499258
      497257 495254 494258 495262 496267 497271 501277 503281
      505281 509275 514272 518268
 0.01 457751 453748 450751 447754 444758 443764 442769 441774
      443776 446775 447770 450765 451762 454757 456754 457751
 0.01 415698 413687 410685 407686 401690 396696 391701 387707
      386711 387717 390719 392718 394714 398713 405712 409712
      412709 414701 415698
 0.01 412746 411744 409746 408747 407747 406749 406750 405752
      404755 405757 405759 406760 406759 407757 409756 409754
      410752 410751 411749 412746
 0.25 524015 524010 521006 518002 515999 512997 508996 510998
      513001 515004 518008 521012 522015 524015
 0.25 494003 493000 493003 494003
 0.25 466866 466863 466861 465860 465861 465863 465866 466867
      466866
 0.25 450804 450799 448799 446800 445803 443805 440808 439811
      440815 442816 446815 447812 449810 450806 450804
 0.25 441757 441752 440748 438747 436749 434751 433756 434759
      434763 435766 436768 438766 439764 440760 441757
 0.25 428788 428783 425782 424785 423789 422792 421794 420798
      420801 420804 423803 424801 425798 427795 428791 428788
 0.50 438760 438758 438755 437753 436756 436758 437760 437761
      438760
 0.50 426789 426786 425786 425789 426791 426789
 0.50 425793 426791 424791 424794 425795 425793

24HR QP VT 12/12Z
 0.01 501282 503276 502270 499262 494255 491253 494248 492244
      487242 480242 464242 460242 458246 452251 445254 440258
      440263 443267 450267 463264 477259 481262 484265 486274
      488278 490282 494285 499285 501282
 0.01 517046 515038 512035 508030 505024 497015 489004 477980
      475975 472968 469957 467949 467942 466938 466933 466923
      467913 470910 475914 475920 477923 481934 487928 489925
      489921 490913 493896 497885 500879 499868 499858 497855
      497850 495841 494835 492833 491829 490824 490813 489804
      487800 481789 479787 479782 478772 477762 478759 478756
      479752 479748 477740 469731 459725 449719 453708 452704
      450703 445705 443710 441711 440709 436703 433700 430698
      433694 436690 441679 443675 445673 450668 454663 457656
      461648 459646 455647 451650 447653 441656 433663 421670
      411677 408679 406681 403683 401686 397691 394696 391702
      392711 397721 391730 387735 384739 379748 382754 387758
      389768 389772 392774 394777 395781 393788 388790 384795
      378803 375806 372813 373815 377816 380815 389807 392808
      393811 398816 400828 404833 405843 404849 405856 408862
      410869 413880 416895 417904 419912 421918 424924 428926
      431928 433934 433952 435956 435961 436966 438974 435980
      434985 438990 441993 445998 449001 453005 461016 470025
      478033 483036 487040 497046 505050 514051 517046
 0.01 290062 291058 289058 287060 285062 283064 282065 280067
      278070 277073 277078 279078 281076 283074 284072 286070
      288067 289064 290062
 0.25 473873 473868 473863 473858 472854 470852 468850 466851
      466856 466861 466866 466871 467875 468878 471878 472875
      473873
 0.25 463822 456810 452807 447806 441805 435804 432799 430793
      427785 424785 419790 416794 415801 415809 415814 416818
      419823 420827 422829 429828 435829 441828 448829 453830
      457829 459827 463822
 0.25 447860 445858 443857 438856 434856 427856 420857 418863
      421868 428868 433869 440868 444865 447860

24HR QP VT 13/12Z
 0.01 513291 508285 503279 500277 497273 493269 487262 486260
      485254 485250 489249 496250 504253 508254 510254 518257
      522258 524261
 0.01 487614 493622 498632 506651 510664 514677 518688 520692
      521699 523716 522730 521736 522742 519753 517758 514761
      512765 508769 503770 500773 490775 484777 482777 481780
      483793 484807 483811 478814 471818 467820 463824 458831
      455834 452834 447834 442832 435829 431828 429824 426821
      422823 419826 415825 412821 410816 409809 407805 404801
      401802 398807 396812 394816 390819 374822 368828 364831
      361836 357838 354838 352836 356828 357823 360819 365813
      373808 378801 384794 388791 393789 401783 405781 406778
      404765 403758 404753 405741 402729 396723 393720 388717
      384716 379719 373724 365729 362732 359735 345747 338753
      330759 321762 315763 314761 315750 316745 318741 329728
      342713 347706 351700 357692 359687 362684 377674 406649
      413644 422636
 0.01 540000 540990 538981 531967 527962 524960 521958 515955
      510951 506945 501942 493941 487939 479939 475939 472937
      457937 451938 444937 438934 433935 433938 435945 439949
      449959 461964 470965 471968 470972 470977 472979 477984
      489991 493995 499999 509009 514012 516015 520015 527015
      531010 540000
 0.01 481877 480868 478860 475852 471847 469846 465845 462845
      460848 453851 448850 442848 436849 431855 425854 417844
      412828 409823 404820 401818 398818 395821 398829 403834
      404849 411861 421870 433871 441871 445871 449872 453871
      458874 462879 463883 463888 463894 465899 468899 472893
      476887 480882 481877
 0.01 263782 263778 260778 255784 251789 247795 245803 243809
      246813 252808 256802 259796 261788 263782
 0.25 504689 504679 502671 498659 496651 493645 488636 482629
      477627 472627 466630 462634 451637 448638 444643 443648
      439653 436656 434662 430672 428677 427683 429689 429695
      422704 415710 413715 413723 415728 418733 425740 430742
      434742 438739 440741 437743 433744 428748 426761 423772
      414792 414799 415807 417812 423811 431806 437798 437782
      440769 443766 446763 456757 459758 462756 466753 478751
      486745 493738 497733 499728 502715 503708 503701 504689
 0.25 473877 473875 473874 472873 471872 469870 468868 468866
      467864 465864 465866 466868 466870 466871 467873 468874
      468875 469878 469879 470880 471881 472880 473878 473877
 0.25 446741 444740 442738 442737 441738 441740 441742 443744
      444744 446742 446741
 0.25 450806 450804 448803 446803 445803 444805 445807 447809
      449810 450809 450806
 0.50 493689 493682 492674 489660 485649 483645 479643 477648
      476653 476659 478663 477666 475664 476679 477686 477691
      478698 481701 486701 490698 492695 493689
 0.50 456670 456664 454661 452657 448656 444658 442661 439668
      437676 435680 435684 435689 435695 437701 439704 442705
      446703 449697 451688 454680 456672 456670
 0.50 445756 444754 442753 437754 434758 432761 429766 428772
      429779 430781 432781 435778 436773 437767 439763 442760
      445756
 0.50 429793 429788 428785 424786 422788 421790 419794 419797
      418799 418804 419807 422806 424804 425801 427798 428795
      429793

$$




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