Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 280701
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 28/1200 UTC THRU MAR 29/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...ROCKIES AND S-CENTRAL PLAINS...

IT REMAINS THE CASE THAT STRONG JET ENERGY DIVING INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF THE FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY
AS IT REACHES THE ROCKIES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHERE THE MORE VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT
WILL LEAD TO A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW THAT SUBSEQUENTLY TRACKS
STEADILY INTO THE S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER DAY1. THE ENSUING
LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL LEAD TO AN ELONGATED STRIPE OF MOD-HVY
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND EVOLVING/EXPANDING
CCB/DEFORMATION AND DEEPENING TROWAL. MAINTAINED CLOSE WPC
CONTINUITY OVER THE ROCKIES...BUT TRENDED SLIGHTLY UPWARDS WITH
AMOUNTS OVER FAVORED S-CENTRAL ROCKIES TERRAIN GIVEN FAVORABLE
SET-UP/CLOSED LOW. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM THE WPC WINTER WEATHER
DESK FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON WINTER WEATHER THREATS.

LEAD POTENT LLJ MOISTURE INFLOW UP THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS WITH
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR AN EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND OVERALL TRANSLATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND POTENTIALLY PROGRESSIVE WITH MESO COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENTS...BUT DEEPEST AND MOST ANOMALOUS MOISTURE (PWS UP TO
1.5") AND HEIGHT FALLS/INSTABILITY SEEMS TO COMBINE/FOCUS MOST
OVER S-CENTRAL OK AND NRN TX...ESPECIALLY WITH CELL MERGERS. WPC
PROGS HAVE TRENDED HEAVIEST QPF UPWARDS TO 3-5" LOCALLY
THERE...WITH MUCH MORE MODEST AMOUNTS WRAPPED UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED NOW BY CLUSTERED
00 UTC ARW/NNMB/WRFNSSL/NAM CONEST GUIDANCE.

...PAC NW...

GUIDANCE REASONABLY AGREES THAT ANOTHER AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED/LEAD SURFACE SYSTEM WILL INCREASINGLY WORK
HEIGHT FALLS AND LEADING ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY INTO WED MORNING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD PCPN/ELEVATION SNOWS...WITH 1" PWS WITH STRONG LEAD
SWRLY LLJ FLOW SUPPORTING SOME 2" LIQUID AMOUNTS OVER THE OLYMPICS
AND 1"+ AMOUNTS INLAND INTO THE WA CASCADES. MAINTAINED CLOSE WPC
CONTINUITY HERE. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM THE WPC WINTER WEATHER
DESK FOR MORE DETAILS ON WINTER WEATHER THREATS.

...MID-ATLC/NORTHEAST...

GUIDANCE ALSO REASONABLY AGREES THAT EXITING MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ENERGY AND SURFACE SYSTEM REFLECTION WILL SUPPORT LINGERING
MODEST PCPN POTENTIAL SWATH ACROSS THE REGION.

SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 537213 538202 537195 532183 525171 517161 500145 492136
      481127 478128 473126 471126 471130 472133 471136 469139
      471141 476141 478143 478147 473148 468147 463149 461156
      458161 453164 451170 448177 448187 449190 452191 456189
      462186 468187 475189 475195 472198 464205 455210 451212
      446213 434217 434220 439224 446227 448230 446233 437237
      432239 428242 426244 429246 437248 444250 451253 463258
      469261 473267 481277 491285 501291 506289 511286 518276
      519266 520257 518241 518236 517232 515225 514222 514218
      516215 520217 525220 530220 533220 536218 537213
 0.01 534992 534980 534976 533973 528969 523965 520966 516971
      507980 493005 490012 483017 478020 473022 465023 459024
      455023 453021 448017 440010 439003 438991 438981 437974
      433958 430947 430936 426932 424931 421931 419934 418938
      414945 407944 403943 402940 395931 391926 386922 380918
      374915 369915 367917 360919 355919 349920 346921 345925
      343932 340939 337946 324949 318951 310951 305949 300945
      296940 290944 285950 282957 277969 276982 276991 278997
      286006 288006 288010 288014 289017 294020 300022 308021
      312020 314018 317017 322018 327022 331027 337029 342033
      345039 344043 342045 340047 341049 339052 336054 330055
      326058 329062 333069 333073 334076 333080 330082 327084
      325088 319086 317086 315090 330089 332091 334093 334099
      335101 338107 339109 341107 347092 359099 364098 365094
      366092 370091 374092 375096 375100 375105 377108 382106
      386099 390099 394100 396101 399100 405100 404105 403109
      398112 394112 392114 387117 383120 380124 385124 389122
      395119 400117 415115 420114 417111 417106 419098 421094
      426095 431098 436102 437107 439108 447109 451109 452104
      453101 456095 461091 466086 469079 469066 473059 477054
      482050 495046 497045 499048 503052 506060 507070 509084
      514084 516082 518078 519066 519059 518056 518051 516047
      515043 513040 510036 512032 516028 519020 520016 524015
      529005 532996 534992
 0.01 494686 493679 491677 484671 486661 486650 484645 481641
      477638 475636 472636 466642 462645 457645 449647 443654
      439658 434659 425661 415665 404669 397675 392682 388691
      386701 387712 389716 392717 390727 388732 383736 376739
      373744 370746 363752 357746 354744 350744 344748 338755
      336761 335768 334778 330785 326792 325798 325804 326814
      330823 323868 323879 323892 324903 327912 328919 328926
      328937 330939 332930 332925 333919 337899 339878 343867
      346857 351851 354846 357843 368843 373835 378828 380834
      382834 385832 387827 388820 390818 394817 401820 406820
      408817 419803 424785 428772 433765 439758 445753 449753
      454752 460746 471734 478727 483721 489714 493708 493702
      494686
 0.01 353815 348812 345807 342803 340799 336802 333806 334815
      336821 338828 340834 344835 346833 349826 350822 353815
 0.01 275793 275790 271790 267791 264791 260791 256792 254793
      252796 252800 254803 257803 261802 265801 266799 269798
      271796 273795 275793
 0.25 532208 531202 527199 524190 512173 507166 503164 498163
      480160 477162 476165 478170 482173 494188 496198 490202
      486204 481205 474207 460215 456216 453219 453223 456224
      460227 453245 462250 471254 479260 485266 491276 497283
      502284 506284 510281 512276 514271 515264 516256 515248
      512237 509229 503218 500209 499203 498201 499198 506196
      510195 515196 524202 527209 529210 532208
 0.25 475674 473671 469669 464671 463676 462681 464685 467687
      470691 473693 474690 476684 476677 475674
 0.25 457079 456075 454072 450066 450063 450058 454052 456045
      455036 446022 435016 430012 427006 423999 422990 419981
      416976 400975 390969 387966 389963 392961 392956 387943
      383938 378934 372931 365930 343947 333954 328957 322959
      316962 310966 303969 296970 293971 292975 290979 292982
      295996 299000 297004 296009 299013 303014 306013 319008
      324007 330009 350028 351036 351043 349047 351051 354055
      354058 352062 351066 352071 354074 358075 362072 366070
      370072 372079 376083 380084 382083 394083 396086 400088
      405084 408077 410074 413073 419072 423074 424076 425084
      428085 430083 436083 436077 438074 441072 444075 448078
      450081 454081 457079
 0.25 425710 424698 421685 416680 413679 410681 404687 401697
      402702 401713 400723 397733 394740 390748 389752 389755
      392757 397755 400756 402759 404764 407767 411765 413763
      415759 417750 421742 423732 423722 425712 425710
 0.25 414781 414776 412772 410772 409773 406775 405778 404782
      404785 405787 408789 409789 412786 413784 414781
 0.25 397779 397776 395774 393773 390771 387771 384770 382770
      380771 380775 381777 383781 385783 387784 389785 392786
      394784 396782 397779
 0.25 395793 393792 389794 388795 386797 384800 383802 383805
      385807 387806 390803 392801 393798 394796 395793
 0.25 372763 370758 366758 363759 357762 353759 350758 347760
      347766 352769 355775 357779 363776 366771 369767 372763
 0.50 513266 514259 514253 512244 508235 504227 500220 498216
      494212 483209 475210 468214 466216 466221 468226 466232
      461236 459240 461244 467249 475253 481258 486266 491272
      496278 501281 504281 507278 509272 513266
 0.50 485233 486230 486228 485227 484225 483224 482224 481223
      479223 477222 476222 476223 474224 475227 477228 478228
      480230 481231 481232 483234 485233 485233
 0.50 450049 451043 450040 445035 438026 430024 425022 421016
      419006 417998 415996 412994 406992 401989 397984 393976
      387973 383977 380978 376978 375975 376972 378965 383963
      384958 379952 378949 374948 366946 360944 356943 352944
      342950 337954 332957 326960 319962 308970 297975 295977
      296981 298984 299987 303986 307981 317975 325973 328975
      330978 326984 321988 310996 305000 301004 299007 300010
      305011 311008 317004 324001 331003 334004 336006 340010
      350018 354024 355031 356039 357043 360047 362053 363056
      366059 370059 373057 376057 381060 384065 387067 389070
      397073 399076 403074 403069 409066 412066 419066 428066
      433062 438059 446056 450049
 0.50 418705 418699 417694 415691 411691 409693 407698 405705
      404715 403724 402732 403737 405738 409738 412737 416729
      417721 418712 418705
 0.50 382074 381073 381072 381069 380067 378065 377064 375063
      373063 372064 372066 372068 373071 373073 373075 374077
      374078 376079 377079 379079 380078 381076 381075 382074
 1.00 511260 510249 507241 503234 499227 496221 493219 490222
      490232 492236 494239 498245 503252 507258 509261 511260
 1.00 502275 504271 504267 502262 497252 495246 492240 489236
      486236 482237 479233 477230 474231 470233 468238 468242
      469245 473249 477251 482254 486258 491267 495271 499275
      502275
 1.00 488221 489219 488217 488216 487214 485214 484213 482213
      480213 479213 477214 476214 477216 478217 480218 481218
      481219 483220 485220 486221 488221 488221
 1.00 409017 388007 383003 380997 378993 374991 367993 363994
      361996 355996 355991 356987 360981 365976 367968 367961
      365958 362952 354950 350950 346951 339956 335960 332963
      334967 336970 336975 332981 328986 322990 318995 319998
      328998 344000 348001 350004 352008 355009 363010 365012
      364016 361018 362020 368020 377019 384022 389024 392022
      399019 406019 409017
 1.00 399046 392042 385039 380033 373031 365032 365037 367040
      369043 370048 371051 375053 381056 385057 388054 390053
      393050 399046
 1.00 322967 321966 319966 318967 317967 316968 315969 314970
      312971 310972 309973 308974 307975 308976 310975 311975
      312974 314973 316972 317971 319970 320969 321967 322967
 1.00 308004 307004 306003 304004 304005 303006 304008 306007
      307007 307005 308004
 1.50 499269 499263 498259 494251 491244 489241 485239 483242
      482242 478233 476232 473234 471237 471243 473246 477248
      484251 488257 493264 498269 499269
 1.50 503241 502240 501238 501237 500235 500234 499232 498231
      497229 497228 496226 494225 493228 493230 493231 494233
      494235 495236 496237 497239 498240 499240 500241 502242
      503241
 1.50 384051 383049 383048 382047 381045 380044 380043 378042
      377044 376046 376048 377051 379053 381053 381054 382054
      383053 384051
 1.50 378006 378005 376004 375003 374003 372002 371002 369003
      370005 371006 372007 374007 376007 378006 378006
 1.50 362005 363003 362002 360002 358002 356002 355002 354005
      354006 356007 358007 360006 362005 362005
 1.50 363967 360956 351954 348954 345957 341959 340967 339973
      337978 330986 324992 327995 333996 339996 344995 345988
      346985 348984 353983 357980 360976 362969 363967
 2.00 496260 495257 493254 492251 491250 491248 491247 490245
      490244 488243 487242 486243 485245 485248 486249 487251
      488253 489255 490256 491258 493259 494261 496260
 2.00 479241 479238 478236 477235 476234 474234 473236 473239
      473241 474242 475243 476243 478243 479241
 2.00 357978 358971 357965 357960 355958 351961 347965 341973
      335981 330988 327993 330993 331991 336994 341993 341990
      338989 335988 344982 355980 357978
 3.00 354976 354971 353969 350968 347969 345971 343973 342976
      340978 338980 337982 339983 341981 343980 346979 350978
      352978 354976

$$




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