Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 121844
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
144 PM EST MON FEB 12 2018


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 13/0000 UTC THRU FEB 14/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...SOUTHWESTERN U.S...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE FORM OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES RESULTING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW BY TONIGHT. OVERALL
THE SYSTEM IS LACKING DEEP MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES ONLY
PEAKING NOT MUCH ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN VALUES. HOWEVER THE
PERSISTENT FORCING AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS WILL STILL RESULT
IN SOME DECENT QPF TOTALS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. SHOULD THUS
SEE A RATHER BROAD 0.25"-0.5" AREA STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN AZ
INTO SOUTHERN UT AND WESTERN CO...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 1"
IN THE MOST OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS.

SOME MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED...BUT AGREEMENT WAS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO GO WITH A MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTION. MOST NOTABLE
ADJUSTMENTS FROM CONTINUITY WERE A SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
HEAVIEST AXIS OVER NV/AZ AND AN INCREASE IN THE MAGNITUDE OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CO...WITH BOTH ADJUSTMENTS GENERALLY HAVING
GLOBAL/HIGH RES MODEL SUPPORT.


...SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

LIGHT RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF COAST
INTO THE FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCALLY
HEAVIER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOULD CONVECTION FORM IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF ANY HEAVIER STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST...AS THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING MEANS
INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO ANY STRONGER MESOSCALE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES THAT FORM.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD SEE A STRONG
LOW LEVEL WEDGE DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST. CONTINUES TO BE A MODEL
SIGNAL THAT THE ASSOCIATED STRATUS SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY 700 MB TROUGHING WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WE WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. AS THIS MOISTURE OVERRUNS
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE GULF COAST SHOULD SEE ELEVATED
SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER EAST TX INTO LA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT LOCATION AND
COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS. OVERALL THOUGHT SOME OF THE HIGH RES
MODELS WERE LIKELY TOO DRY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE DEGREE OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEMS
TO SUPPORT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. DID FAVOR SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE 0Z ECMWF...12Z
UKMET AND 12Z NAM NEST...ALL OF WHICH SHOWED A BIT BETTER COVERAGE
OF QPF. TRENDED OUR FORECAST UP SOME TO INTRODUCE A 0.25"
AREA...AND WOULD SUSPECT ISOLATED 0.5"+ TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE.

CHENARD

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML



THIS DISCUSSION WILL TRANSITION TO MIXED-CASE FEB 26, 2018.  THE
LISTING OF ISOHYET POINTS CONTAINED BELOW WILL ALSO BE ELIMINATED
FROM THE PRODUCT FEB 26, 2018.  ISOHYET GRID INFORMATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED IN A VARIETY OF BINARY FORMATS AND MADE
AVAILABLE THROUGH THE WPC GIS PAGE.

24HR QP VT 14/00Z
 0.01 537210 538204 537199 535193 534183 531178 520169 518166
      515163 510161 502160 498164 498182 501197 503200 507201
      514203 516202 517206 518214 518220 520223 524228 526226
      528221 532216 536214 537210
 0.01 507264 509254 508243 503230 499224 495225 493229 493233
      496239 498243 499247 496248 495246 490244 488244 485251
      483255 482260 482268 486282 489289 496291 500288 503281
      507264
 0.01 493873 492868 491861 489856 487853 484849 481846 480849
      478855 478862 479867 482872 485874 488879 490879 491875
      493874 493873
 0.01 484949 485941 484936 481932 477931 473933 472937 470943
      467947 462954 460959 460964 464974 466977 469977 472972
      474967 479960 481956 483952 484949
 0.01 442997 442990 440985 436984 433986 429987 427992 426999
      427004 429010 432008 436005 438002 441998 442997
 0.01 425122 426120 426117 427115 426113 426112 424111 424112
      423115 423117 423119 423122 425122 425122
 0.01 430030 428027 426029 419031 413034 409041 406046 402051
      397054 390054 386055 384053 381051 376050 372050 369052
      365054 370055 372054 372057 367059 362064 360067 362069
      365071 365076 364079 366081 369084 370087 371094 371098
      369101 363098 359100 361108 360112 357114 353113 350111
      347105 344098 340095 336095 336099 334101 325113 323115
      318116 311115 309117 308120 310125 312126 316127 321125
      324122 329123 332125 331129 325133 319134 319138 321141
      326140 329140 331143 337142 342142 346144 351146 352150
      350157 352161 359150 361149 365149 369151 374150 376153
      377156 375159 373160 370164 372167 376166 385171 388171
      389167 385163 387154 392148 394146 395142 394134 393129
      395126 397120 401116 407112 413082 416074 416065 417055
      419048 425036 430030
 0.01 391199 387194 384188 380185 380181 376179 372179 364176
      360176 358180 357183 359185 365189 372195 379198 387200
      391199
 0.01 376762 374758 369755 361752 353757 351762 350768 351775
      351782 345788 341794 338798 337798 336794 336789 337786
      338782 337778 333777 330779 327788 326795 325805 326814
      329816 332814 335814 335818 334821 330821 327823 325827
      327832 328839 329849 325857 322866 319874 314877 314872
      315869 316863 319858 320850 319845 318841 316838 313840
      311841 308839 310835 312824 313821 310819 307822 305827
      303829 300827 302823 305817 307814 313807 326774 329768
      334761 336754 336750 335743 333740 335737 338730 340722
      339716 337712 334708 328708 323710 319712 314720 310729
      306737 304747 298763 296779 288792 284798 282807 277811
      270810 261811 264802 264798 261796 253801 250804 252808
      255810 255816 259815 258824 261826 265825 270820 283829
      286832 285835 281843 280851 281856 283858 288867 287877
      285878 283876 281873 277869 274867 271869 270875 269885
      269889 265892 260893 258896 260903 264909 266911 269911
      276908 280907 284908 286910 286913 285920 283927 279933
      275937 272940 266946 262949 258951 256949 257946 258940
      255939 252941 246945 242953 241957 240964 241968 243971
      244979 249983 255987 262990 264994 268997 284000 288002
      295002 301998 309993 313990 319990 325984 330976 334970
      338962 343948 345941 343936 343930 342908 342901 341896
      340893 336891 333893 329897 324904 320905 316904 309904
      306900 304896 304889 302885 303881 310876 313876 312879
      312885 313888 317888 324885 328882 330879 332875 336872
      344871 348867 360861 364858 367853 370849 372844 375835
      376829 376822 373821 369823 366825 364829 362832 359833
      359830 363821 366815 366809 365802 361807 359809 357807
      358803 363789 365771 367768 372766 376762
 0.01 353204 350188 351182 353178 355169 352165 349166 344171
      342166 339165 331163 323160 319159 316161 314163 313167
      316174 320180 328182 331186 330191 328194 329196 329201
      331205 335209 339210 341205 344198 348205 353204
 0.01 344193 343191 342188 343186 342185 341184 339185 339188
      340189 340190 341192 342193 343194 344193
 0.01 353804 352800 350800 349800 345803 344805 342807 341810
      341812 339817 343818 345816 348815 350813 352811 351806
      353804
 0.25 410068 409064 407061 404060 401062 397066 395068 391068
      389071 388076 386081 383081 380082 379074 379067 377064
      373062 369062 368067 369070 372077 376094 379100 379102
      377105 371108 369111 367115 358120 347111 343106 340106
      340111 338115 339118 340127 343133 347137 352137 355137
      362140 368138 372136 374136 376132 379124 381117 384108
      386105 389104 395100 400088 402080 405074 409072 410068
 0.25 327952 328947 325947 321945 314938 307930 305926 301926
      297931 297936 299942 300947 296958 296962 299964 306965
      312965 316962 319959 324957 327953 327952
 0.25 316768 316760 313756 308760 307764 303774 301785 297795
      294799 294804 298808 302808 305805 308801 311790 315781
      316775 316769 316768
 0.25 296813 296811 295810 293810 291811 290812 288814 287816
      288817 290817 292817 294816 294815 295814 296813
 0.50 399076 399072 397073 395076 392076 390077 390082 391084
      388086 386088 389090 391087 393086 396085 397083 398078
      399076
 0.50 371129 372125 373120 372116 370118 367119 365119 362121
      361123 360127 357128 356131 357131 360130 363130 366130
      367132 369131 371129
 0.50 376078 377076 377073 378071 377069 377067 377066 375064
      373063 371063 370064 369065 369066 371068 371069 371070
      372073 372074 373075 374077 375078 376078 376078
 1.00 375071 375069 375067 373068 374071 374072 375071

$$





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