Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 170605
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
204 AM EDT WED MAY 17 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 17/1200 UTC THRU MAY 18/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NWRN U.S/N-CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT HERE IN DROPPING
ANONYMOUSLY DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SEWD WITH CENTROID NEAR THE
WY/UT/CO REGION BY THUR MORNG.  MODELS SHOW A VERY SLOW MOVING
OCCLUDED FRONT/TROWAL SETUP ACRS WITH THE FOOTHILLS OF THE NRN
ROCKIES THAT BASICALLY REMAINS ANCHORED FOR 12 HOURS OR MORE AS
THE MID LEVEL LOW ESSENTIALLY TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
AREA LEADING TO A STG DEFORMATION AREA AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM
THE WRN CO MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS SEWD INTO THE BIG HORNS AND
ADJACENT HI PLAINS OF ERN WY/NRN CO BY THE END OF THE PD.  A
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO HEAVY MTN SNOWS ARE LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF
THE HIER ELEVS ACRS THIS AREA..WHILE IN THE LOWER ELEVS...THE
COMBINATION OF LONGER DURATION MDT TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
SNOW MELT COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES..ESPECIALLY NEAR
STREAMS/RIVERS ALREADY HI FROM SNOW MELT.  ACRS THE REMAINDER OF
THE GT BASIN INTO THE SRN ROCKIES...THERE IS ALSO SOME BASIC
SUPPORT OF SHOWING EMBDD S/WV ENERGY DROPPING SEWD THRU THE SRN GT
BASIN BY WED EVENING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PCPN FROM
SRN UT/NRN AZ INTO CO WED NIGHT. FOR MANUAL QPF LEANED HEAVILY
TOWARD A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND HREF MEANS GIVEN DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT HERE.  PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WFO FOR ADDITIONAL
WINTER WEATHER FORECAST DETAILS.


...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...

MODELS REMAIN REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED EARLY IN THE FORECAST PD
IN LIFTING NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV ACRS THE CNTL PLAINS..WHILE
CLOSING OFF A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TOWARD THE NE AND INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY BY THUR MORNING.  BY THEN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
OPEN UP THE UPPER LOW A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS..THOUGH THE NAM ENDS UP MUCH FASTER IN LIFTING THE ASSOCD SFC
LOW NEWD INTO THE GT LAKES BY THUR MRNG AND BECOMES A SOMEWHAT
QUICKER OUTLIER SOLN.  IN TERMS OF QPF...THERE IS MDTLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SUPPORTING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SWATH IN THE
EVOLVING COMMA HEAD/WARM CONVEYOR BELT BAND FROM ERN NEB NEWD INTO
THE U.P. OF MI WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN BANDING DETAILS BOTH NORTH
OF THE ASSOCD WARM FRONT AND IN THE EXPECTED WARM SECTOR JUST
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT.  FOR MOST OF THIS
REGION..A NON-NAM SOLN WAS GENLY FOLLOWED ALONG WITH
CONTINUITY..SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD 1 TO 1.5"+ AMOUNTS FRONT NE NEB
INTO SRN MN..NRN WI..AND THE U.P OF MI.  WITHIN THIS AREA..LOCALLY
HIER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY WED AFTN/EVENING FROM SRN MN
INTO NRN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI WHERE TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL BE PSBL ALONG VERY SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT.  SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY/CAPE IS EXPECTED TO DVLP WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL SUPPORT SOME STG CONVECTION
AND WITH PWS NEAR 1.5"...HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL BE MORE LIKELY ACRS
THIS AREA LEADING TO POTNL RUNOFF ISSUES ESPECIALLY GIVEN RECENT
MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THIS AREA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS.

...SRN FL...

IT REMAINS THE CASE THAT DAYTIME HEATING ACTING ON MDTLY HIGH MSTR
AND SELY FLOW WILL LEAD TO SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS THE SRN
PENINSULA.  LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN LACK OF
ANY ORGANIZED S/WV SUPPORT..THOUGH GLOBAL AND HI RES MODELS GENL
SUPPORT LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS HERE.


SULLIVAN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 544179 542174 540170 537164 532162 528158 523150 521151
      518151 520138 518127 513119 502103 486088 479083 473076
      467069 463060 456044 454038 454032 451026 451019 452012
      453006 457996 464977 466971 469967 472958 477949 481940
      499898 502888 503878 507851 509836 510823 510820 512817
      515816 522813 531808 533797 532790 533782 533767 533762
      531755 526743 518721 515716 515711 518703 517698 518695
      517686 515671 514666 511661 506651 500645 495642 488636
      480632 473631 465629 461639 461645 461651 463678 463691
      462700 461706 461712 466723 468735 470751 469756 469764
      467773 464778 462785 458788 454791 447798 443800 439804
      431809 426814 423816 425821 428823 431823 432821 445815
      447813 449814 452818 449823 446826 440832 437834 431835
      422839 415843 411846 409847 408843 410832 410824 407825
      404826 404822 407817 407811 404807 401806 399810 397819
      397823 401825 401830 398832 393839 382855 373869 364886
      353901 347908 341914 335921 332925 328928 322933 317936
      312939 305942 297943 290949 283955 277961 273968 272972
      273976 275987 283992 292994 299991 306985 319972 332957
      339952 346950 351948 356948 360946 360942 358938 358935
      361934 363931 365927 376912 387897 398884 403874 406870
      411866 418862 425855 428856 429860 429867 426874 420882
      412888 406893 403896 401901 393906 390914 386977 383987
      385999
 0.01 385999 388011 393024 393026 391029 387033 383038 380044
      375055 370058 365060 358071 354077 350081 347084 344085
      343089 339102 339105 341108 344114 344122 346128 352137
      354140 356139 359139 361137 364131 369134 373135 374138
      377144 381147 385148 388150 394159 395163 393167 397171
      402170 408170 412173 415177 418182 423187 428192 434196
      439199 444201 448200 452196 460188 467177 472171 476169
      479168 480172 481175 479177 475181 472186 473191 475194
      478196 483196 490198 500204 503210 505213 505216 510231
      514235 520239 522236 522231 519224 517217 516214 517208
      519205 523206 529208 532208 534207 536207 538202 540197
      542186 544179
 0.01 486215 486212 484210 480211 478209 469211 458212 449213
      445214 440215 436218 434222 435227 437229 440230 449228
      453226 458226 467224 471222 476220 479218 484217 486215
 0.01 402774 401764 397765 395768 392776 388783 387786 384788
      381795 381805 388799 390798 391794 393790 395787 399781
      402774
 0.01 371192 371189 369186 368184 364183 361183 357182 355183
      352184 350185 348187 351189 354189 358190 361191 365192
      368194 371192
 0.01 349873 347866 343866 341864 337864 334862 329858 324855
      316854 310857 307863 305880 303886 299891 298893 298897
      304897 309893 313888 315886 313883 320880 332875 334876
      338876 347875 349873
 0.01 318016 318013 315011 313011 309010 305010 302010 300012
      298014 298015 300017 301019 305021 307022 310022 312022
      314020 316018 318016
 0.01 276803 270793 270789 267789 263789 262791 257794 249796
      244797 239801 240815 246825 253819 257822 262825 267828
      273829 275828 275824 273818 270813 268806 272806 276803
 0.01 262998 260994 259992 255991 250989 244987 238987 233990
      233995 235998 238999 244000 249000 253999 257999 262998
 0.25 517766 518758 517751 515746 513740 511735 508734 509742
      508747 508755 509763 511769 514771 516770 517767 517766
 0.25 507143 507138 506135 503130 494118 477096 444048 444037
      441032 439023 438019 439014 441007 443998 446990 449984
      464961 469952 472944 477929 482915 485905 487896 488887
      491879 494872 495865 496854 497844 499826 501780 501769
      502762 502751 502744 500738 498729 496720 491703 489693
      486684 484671 483668 480667 475683 471691 471701 474721
      475734 476746 476757 476768 476776 474783 469800 465815
      456850 453857 451863 443876 439883 434888 423893 418896
      413901 404912 404918 406920 406927 404937 401945 399953
      397959 398964 400966 405971 407979 404986 402994 400001
      401006 405007 411010 416014 417022 416027 413030 409033
      406033 399035 394041 391047 390055 387061 381065 374066
      370066 369068 367078 363083 357088 355093 349108 360111
      364106 368097 371089 371086 374085 377087 379091 381092
      382089 396085 400081 405078 408076 410069 411066 415066
      422067 430070 432073 434078 434087 434104 434115 433124
      431128 431130 438134 444139 449145 452151 454158 455162
      458162 461158 472153 475149 476144 478142 481143 489145
      498149 503147 507143
 0.25 460180 459178 457178 456179 455179 454180 453181 452182
      451183 451184 453184 455184 457183 458182 459181 460180
 0.25 429170 429166 428162 425155 423145 422142 419143 417146
      414146 411148 407148 401150 401154 402158 408162 413167
      422169 426171 429170
 0.25 305973 305972 303972 301973 299974 298975 297976 296977
      297978 299978 301977 303975 305973 305973
 0.25 266817 265815 264813 262811 262810 261809 260808 258808
      257809 257811 257813 259815 260817 261817 263818 264818
      266817
 0.50 502139 499130 494124 489116 483111 478106 474098 469090
      465082 456069 452063 446057 439052 435046 431042 428041
      420039 411036 406036 403038 400040 398044 396047 395051
      398054 402056 406057 410057 425058 432054 437057 440061
      440066 440069 440074 444082 445087 445091 443092 440090
      440094 442098 448103 453109 457118 458122 459128 460138
      462141 466143 472139 479137 484138 490141 494142 498141
      502139
 0.50 494784 494776 492768 487778 481787 478793 475800 473812
      469824 465838 461849 452871 447882 444888 441893 437897
      432899 425898 420900 416903 412909 417914 416928 412940
      409945 405951 404958 406963 409967 412973 412977 410982
      408986 406992 405996 407998 412001 418002 422999 424997
      428997 433996 436992 443984 450974 456966 463958 468945
      472934 480910 484897 486879 487864 489850 491834 492827
      493817 492799 494784
 0.50 488719 488714 487709 486707 484704 482700 481698 480694
      478696 477701 477704 477709 478714 479719 480721 482724
      485725 488722 488719
 0.50 420161 421159 421157 420155 418154 417156 416156 415158
      415160 415163 416163 417163 419162 420161
 0.50 392073 392071 392070 391069 389070 390072 391073 392074
      392073
 0.50 383081 384079 385077 383075 382074 381074 380073 378071
      376070 374070 374071 374073 374075 376078 377080 377081
      378083 379083 381083 383081 383081
 0.50 366095 367092 367090 366089 364089 363090 362090 361092
      360092 360094 359096 359098 360099 361100 363099 365097
      365096 366095
 1.00 491132 490127 487124 480120 474117 472114 471110 469101
      466092 463085 459079 454074 449068 446067 444069 445073
      448077 452082 454085 454089 453094 453098 455103 458105
      461111 465119 468125 471128 474129 489134 491132
 1.00 485831 485825 483818 480816 478819 473840 470852 466860
      462869 457876 452884 448893 446898 445904 445911 444916
      440923 433929 431933 428933 429937 428940 427945 429949
      429952 428956 424961 422957 417956 414961 416965 418970
      417977 416981 415986 415994 417993 420989 425984 430977
      440976 443973 446969 450961 454951 457940 459937 462938
      464942 466940 469930 471919 475907 478883 479872 480859
      485831
 1.00 414045 413043 412041 410041 408041 406042 405044 406046
      407047 408047 410048 411048 413047 414045
 1.50 472868 469867 466870 461877 456884 454889 453896 452908
      453917 460922 464923 466920 470910 470898 470883 472870
      472868
 1.50 465107 466102 465100 462092 460086 457081 453076 450072
      447072 449075 453078 457084 459089 457096 458101 460103
      463107 465107
 1.50 444961 445959 443957 442958 441959 440960 439961 438963
      438964 437966 438968 440967 441966 442966 443964 443963
      444961
 2.00 465881 464879 463881 461883 461884 463885 464883 464882
      465881
 2.00 462898 462893 461889 460886 459886 458890 457893 456896
      456901 456906 457910 458911 460908 460905 461900 462898

$$





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