Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 160702
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
201 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 16/1200 UTC THRU FEB 17/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


RECENT MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO OFFER QUITE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENT AND WELL CLUSTERED MASS FIELD AND QPF GUIDANCE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. A GUIDANCE COMPOSITE WITH DOWNSCALING MAINTAINED
CLOSE WPC CONTINUITY WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SPREAD HEAVIER PCPN
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVELY INTO S-CENTRAL CA EARLY FRIDAY AS PER
LATEST MESO MODEL TRENDS.


...CA AND THE NWRN US...

LATEST BLENDED TPW LOOPS SHOW A LONG FETCH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM COASTAL PACIFIC NW TO HAWAII AND
BEYOND ACROSS THE TROPICAL W-CENTRAL PACIFIC. WELL CHANNELLED DEEP
MOISTURE IS ALREADY SUPPORTING SOME .3" TO .4" HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES THAT ONSHORE WITH FAVORED TOPOGRAPHY COULD SWELL TO NEAR
1"/HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE FURTHER MAINTAINED BY WAVE
INDUCEMENT NOW INDICATED OFF THE NRN CA COAST AS INDUCED WITH
APPROACH OF FURTHER OFFSHORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/LOW.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SPREAD SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NRN CA TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
THEN SRN CALIFORNIA AS HEIGHTS LOWER ACROSS CA AND NWRN STATES.
THIS OCCURS CONCURRENT WITH AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE PW VALUES OF 2
TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN IN THE AXIS OF STRONGEST
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THE ANOMALOUS PW
VALUES AND CORRESPONDING ANOMALOUS 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX VALUES
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP POTENTIAL. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THIS PERIOD FOR THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIP POTENTIAL CONSIDERING LOW MODEL SPREAD. INITIALLY HIGH SNOW
LEVELS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIP IN THE LIQUID
STATE---EXACERBATING ONGOING RUNOFF ISSUES.

ACTIVITY WILL MEANWHILE WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALSO SPREAD MORE
MODESTLY INLAND OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN/FAR NRN ROCKIES WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SOME WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS FROM THE SAWTOOTH/SALMON RIVER/BITTERROOTS OF
ID--BLUES OF NORTHEAST OREGON---FAR NORTHEAST WASHINGTON
STATE...THE ROCKIES OF NORTHWEST MT AND INTO THE WASACTH OF UT.

...NORTHEAST AND FLORIDA...

A DEEP COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK AWAY FROM MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY THURSDAY MORNING AS ITS VIGOROUS SUPPORTING MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD OEVR THE ERN/NERN US.
UNDERNEATH...EXPECT SOME GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SNOWS TO THE LEE OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND FAVORED NORTHWARD FACING TERRAIN OF
NY/NEW ENGLAND IN WRAPBACK COLD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEEP
LOW PASSAGE. MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...DEEP MOISTURE POOLED ALONG A
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MAIN LOW AS SHOWN BY LATEST
BLENDED TPW LOOPS MAY FUEL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG/OFF SRN
FL.

...TX...

EJECTION OF A MEXICAN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED TROUGH/LOW INTO TX
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DOES NOT SEEM TO INSPIRE MUCH RETURN GULF
INFLOW INTO TX AND HAS GENERATED MINIMAL MODEL QPF. SUSPECT
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO SOME DEGREE
AND WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED IF THE CLOSED FEATURE ENDED UP SQUEEZING
OUT A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN ACROSS TX THAN SHOWN.

SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 490613 499625 503632 505639 507652 506661 505670 503678
      502684 500686 496691 491696 485698 473704 467702 465701
      462703 456717 454724 453728 451729 449733 450736 452746
      449754 446761 439773 436780 434782 432778 430776 429779
      427781 427786 425798 424803 422807 418813 416813 417804
      415799 413798 405794 399794 393796 383807 385799 389793
      394789 400788 402790 404790 408789 415791 417789 418785
      422780 425776 427773 427770 426768 422760 416748 418743
      420742 422744 425744 429745 434744 438744 439741 440736
      437733 422737 420735 421731 423729 426727 434726 433723
      431723 427722 423723 420721 422718 424717 426715 425713
      421709 419699 420696 420690 421675 423668 426662 429656
      435651 440645 442640 447628
 0.01 534212 537188 538179 535174 521159 513150 504143 495136
      485130 462119 459115 455110 452099 451096 447095 441096
      438099 433097 428091 424091 430101 419109 416111 413111
      411109 407107 405111 402114 397116 387120 384122 384124
      388125 393122 399121 404120 411122 415127 420131 423136
      424142 422149 419153 414153 409154 406154 404156 404159
      408164 411165 413167 429152 433159 436165 438167 439170
      433171 430175 426176 420175 417175 417177 429185 429188
      429192 427196 425197 415200 411202 405201 397199 392195
      382189 374182 370180 364179 358178 354179 349182 347180
      345177 343170 342168 338166 334164 335169 336172 332172
      330170 326169 326172 330174 337181 337186 335192 326222
      327229 333232 336236 341239 346239 351235 355233 361235
      371239 383242 396247 402249 408252 421254 433254 445254
      451255 456256 462257 468259 473261 478264 483267 487271
      496282 499288 503287 511284 514275 518269 520261 521251
      520244 518239 517233 514229 508219 504213 503207 504203
      507204 511205 513208 520215 525220 528217 532214 534212
 0.01 487200 484196 481192 477190 473187 469187 465189 463193
      462201 465204 469205 473205 477203 480202 484202 487200
 0.01 462693 459692 455693 452694 449695 445696 444699 443701
      442706 444709 447707 448706 450704 453702 455700 458699
      459696 462693
 0.01 468135 467130 465125 460124 456121 451120 448124 446128
      447133 449135 451134 455132 459131 461131 464135 468135
 0.01 448207 447205 445205 444206 445207 447208 448207
 0.01 442205 440203 440202 439200 437201 436203 436205 438206
      440206 442205
 0.01 441825 439822 439820 437818 435816 432814 430814 430817
      430819 432821 434823 436825 439827 440827 441825
 0.01 378162 377157 373157 370158 367157 364155 361154 359156
      360159 364162 367167 370167 374166 376164 378162
 0.01 312990 312985 310983 307982 299983 296981 295979 292972
      290969 290966 289958 287953 276958 272959 268958 263957
      255957 249959 244961 240966 239968 239973 240978 242984
      247988 247992 244994 239996 234999 230003 230007 232009
      237012 245013 249010 271009 273005 273002 273998 275995
      278990 281987 284987 288990 289992 291997 296000 300000
      302998 308994 312990
 0.01 256801 247796 246789 241786 236789 233794 231798 229805
      226816 223829 223835 225841 226843 230843 233838 238828
      242817 247807 250804 256801
 0.25 481616 486622 488624 490628 492640 495647 499648 500653
      498662 495669 491676 485681 483680 484674 485666 482666
      480670 475674 469675 462674 456670 451667 449659 452642
      455634 460629 463623
 0.25 528204 530200 529197 528193 525185 523176 517172 510165
      505161 498158 494149 490142 486139 485141 487144 490149
      493151 492155 488155 480153 473148 468143 463142 460144
      458148 457152 454152 451150 446144 440138 437139 434141
      433149 434155 435157 442164 445171 449177 448181 445184
      445187 448188 451190 452194 454192 464179 465174 469173
      476172 483178 489181 499183 506187 512190 518196 524203
      528204
 0.25 516259 517254 517250 515243 511232 506221 502215 498211
      492208 486207 477208 472211 466211 460210 457212 450214
      445216 436216 429207 424203 419206 414209 411209 401203
      389197 380191 367185 362186 359190 357192 353192 348189
      345188 343189 339193 335199 334207 333215 332222 334226
      339227 350224 356225 361229 372232 384235 390236 394240
      406245 416248 423249 427248 439246 450246 460245 466245
      471247 478251 482255 495275 500279 502282 505281 507280
      508277 508272 510268 514265 516259
 0.25 497244 495240 493235 492231 489228 485228 482225 478225
      480229 483233 488235 491237 494241 496245 497244
 0.25 447114 447111 447110 447109 446106 446105 444104 442104
      441105 440106 439107 438107 437108 435109 437111 438111
      440111 442111 443113 444113 445114 447115 447114
 0.25 420223 420221 420220 418220 418221 419223 420224 420223
 0.25 424117 424115 422116 420116 419116 420117 422118 424117
      424117
 0.25 380215 380214 379213 378212 377211 375210 374209 373208
      372207 371206 370205 369204 367204 366205 365207 366208
      368210 369211 371212 373212 374213 376214 378215 380215
      380215
 0.50 513261 515255 515251 513245 511238 509233 504222 500217
      496213 491211 487210 481211 476212 472215 468215 462214
      456215 447218 437221 431221 431225 435228 440228 450226
      460224 469220 474219 480220 486222 490225 495236 506258
      510262 513261
 0.50 521189 521183 519181 518179 515177 513175 510173 508172
      507172 504174 505178 506181 508183 511184 514186 515187
      518190 521189
 0.50 506274 505266 502259 494247 491241 487238 483238 481236
      476230 472230 470231 464234 458234 453236 451238 451241
      457241 464241 471243 482251 490262 498273 503278 506274
 0.50 496172 495168 491165 487161 480157 474153 468147 465145
      461146 461152 463156 466164 468167 472168 480170 485174
      492174 496172
 0.50 485646 485639 484633 480626 477625 473625 467631 462635
      457642 456646 457652 461661 467663 473662 478656 482649
      485646
 0.50 455179 455169 456160 451155 447149 442144 440141 437141
      435146 435153 439158 444164 448171 452178 455179
 0.50 431241 414226 417218 416214 413213 401206 376192 374193
      375197 378201 380209 384214 382218 379218 375215 368215
      362211 361204 359198 345193 339196 337202 336211 335217
      336220 339223 343222 348220 355219 358221 360224 373229
      390232 401239 416246 426246 431243 431241
 0.50 401230 402228 402226 402223 400223 398222 397220 395220
      393220 392220 391220 390221 389222 389224 391226 392227
      392228 394229 395229 397230 399230 401230 401230
 1.00 511254 511249 510245 507237 503231 499222 495218 492217
      491220 494228 498236 502243 505250 508257 511254
 1.00 503273 503267 500263 498259 495255 493251 491247 488242
      486243 486246 487251 489254 491259 494263 496267 499271
      502273 503273
 1.00 479241 479238 479237 478236 478234 476232 474234 474237
      475240 477241 478241 479241
 1.00 475161 474159 473157 472157 470158 471160 471161 473162
      475161
 1.00 461220 461219 459218 457218 456219 455219 454220 452220
      453221 455222 456221 457221 459221 460221 461220
 1.00 448158 448157 447155 446155 445154 443152 441150 440151
      440154 441155 441156 442157 444158 446159 447159 448158
 1.00 426242 426241 424239 423238 421237 419236 418236 416237
      415239 415240 416241 417242 418243 420243 422243 423243
      424243 426242 426242
 1.00 413224 414219 412217 408216 407214 402210 397206 392203
      385201 385204 386207 389213 392216 399219 406220 409226
      411226 413224
 1.00 373225 374223 373221 373220 372218 370218 369219 370221
      370222 371224 373225 373225
 1.00 363218 361213 358207 356202 350199 348197 344198 341201
      339210 340214 341216 347215 353215 356215 358217 361218
      363218
 1.50 499266 498265 497263 496262 497263 498266 499266
 1.50 503239 502238 502235 501234 501233 500231 500230 499227
      498227 498225 497223 496223 495223 495226 495228 497231
      498233 499234 499236 501236 502238 502239 503239
 1.50 403217 404214 403214 402212 400211 399209 398208 397207
      395206 394206 392206 390206 391209 391210 392211 393213
      394214 396215 398216 399217 401217 403217 403217
 1.50 355209 355207 354203 351202 347201 347200 344202 344206
      343211 345211 347211 349212 352213 354211 355209
 2.00 400213 398211 398210 397209 395209 395210 396212 397213
      398213 400214 400213
 2.00 354206 352205 350204 348204 347205 346205 347205 348207
      348208 350209 351210 353209 354207 354206

$$





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