Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 241901
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 25/0000 UTC THRU MAY 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND EAST TO WESTERN
GULF COAST...

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS...THE ARKLATEX...AND TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

THE LATEST SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR BUSTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  AS THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH EJECTS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION SUPPORT ROUNDS FO SHOWERS/EMBDDED STORMS FROM THE MID TO
LOWER MS VALLEY.  THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER DIVGERENCE/LOWER CONVERENCE COUPLET WITH THE
UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL/NAM WITH HEAVIER QPF THAN THE GFS/ECMWF.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY MANUAL QPF USED A BLENDED SOLUTION.

SIMILALY...AN AXIS OF LOW-MID LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW MAY SUPPORT LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIOND EVELOPING OVER THE GULF TONIGH
AND MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST LA.  THIS IDEA IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS OR NAM BUT IS SUPPORTED BY THE
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM/CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS.  MANUAL
PROGS GAVE MORE WEIGHTING TO THE MAJORITY CLUSTER.

THE NEXT MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OUT OF NM LATE TONIGHT
AND ACROSS TEXAS MONDAY.
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WAVE...LOW-MID LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN WEST TEXAS AND INCREASES HEADING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE
INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THERE IS NORTH TO SOUTH SPREAD IN
THE LOCATION OF MAXIMA OF RAINFALL WITH THE PREFERRED SOLUTION A
BLEND OF THE GFS/00Z ECMWF ENSMEBLE MEAN.  THE AXIS IS WHERE THE
850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE MAXIMA OF THE GFS AND
UKMET OVERLAP NICELY. THE RGEM FORECAST PLACED THE ACTIVITY A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE UKMET QPF WAS HIGHLY CONCENTRATED. THE 12Z
ECMWF ERASED A MAX NEAR THE RED RIVER AND CONSOLIDATED QPF TOWARDS
CENTRAL TX LIKE THE 12Z GFS.

FARTHER NORTH INTO THE UPPER LAKES...RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE
REGION AS 850-700 BM THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT.  AS THE WARM FRONT SPREADS NORTHEAST THE
QPF MOVES IN TANDEM ACROSS THE LAKES INTO CANADA. A CONSENSUS
APPROACH WAS USED.


...GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

A REGION OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL DRIFT EAST FROM UT INTO
WY WITH STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
 SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AGAIN IN
THIS ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS WITH 700 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY MAXIMA
ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD CIRCULATION LEADING TO A RAINFALL MAXIMA
IN WY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SD/ND. THIS COINCIDES WITH A MAX
REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE.  ELSEWHERE...MAXIMA IN THE RANGES OF
/SOUTHERN ID/NORTHWEST WY/UT/CO COINCIDE WHERE ASCENT IS AUGMENTED
BY UPSLOPE FLOW.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREAS DRIFTING EAST OF THE
700 MB CIRCULATION CENTER SHOULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN
EASTERN CO.  LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS MOVE
SLOWLY...AND WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED LAST NIGHT IN NORTHEAST CO.
 MANUAL QPF USED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND...WHICH MAINTAINED GOOD
CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST.

PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 538213 537201 535187 530164 521151 518146 515142 512139
      509137 491128 488116 485103 484098 484092 483085 484078
      485063 486058 487050 489038 488031 488021 487015 487007
      487991 488984 489977 491967 492955 494944 498918 501891
      499827 497793 496786 494779 490768 483748 476732 473728
      470724 474715 476706 475699 473693 472688 469681 465672
      461671 458674 460691 459697 456697 449687 445678 435683
      431684 430688 428700 427719 424722 423728 424744 424774
      423784 422790 418792 411798 403802 395807 387813 367820
      359821 357821 354819 350815 348811 340810 336808 331809
      329810 328808 327805 326803 319797 314794 310790 301777
      299774 293775 291778 292784 290789 288791 284789 280791
      284800 290807 293816 290814 288811 286808 282808 276803
      268798 261794 254789 250783 245772 243769 239767 234766
      228766 224767 221770 219775 220778 225790 232809 236816
      239819 243821 248825 252825 254822 257822 259825 258829
      258834 259841 261846 264848 267846 274841 277838 281836
      290841 292844 290847 290851 288853 283854 275859 271861
      268865 266875 270882 271886 272888 276890 279893 276902
      275910 278919 277924 274928 269936 265943 261952 253974
      253978 255982 258986 262989 269994 274001 274020 279025
      282027 288028 293028 297030 304035 308038 310038 315036
      318032 326029 334024 336020 341021 349018 356014 363007
      365005 367008 369012 368015 367029 366035 364036 359042
      354049 353055 350059 346060 343058 340060 339063 337069
      336075 335082 335089 335094 337099 339104 342108 349114
      354122 361134
 0.01 361134 362141 361147 360157 359169 363175 361179 362183
      362186 366188 372193 377199 383205 389208 403218 406220
      408223 403227 399229 401231 403234 407235 413232 415229
      416224 423203 429200 434196 436184 438178 440178 444175
      447175 453172 455169 460169 467173 469176 469180 468184
      469188 472197 475205 482219 487226 491232 499248 503255
      507262 512261 517263 520256 525257 530243 528242 527239
      527236 528234 529231 529229 530227 532227 533230
 0.01 469641 467641 465642 467642 469641 469641
 0.01 385986 385983 384981 382983 382986 384987 385986
 0.01 239995 239993 238993 237993 236993 236995 237996 238996
      239995
 0.25 515216 518205 517196 517186 513179 510173 505169 493162
      488159 483161 480164 481173 479185 480190 482192 488195
      495199 498206 500212 502220 507225 510226 512223 515216
 0.25 490889 490877 490863 489850 488841 483802 480793 477785
      472769 465752 458739 455733 450726 447724 443724 441726
      440731 438736 438746 439756 439764 438773 437782 434799
      433809 433818 433841 431849 429860 428870 425876 421879
      415882 410881 404879 402877 399873 394870 388867 379866
      373865 367863 361861 353861 345860 338857 332854 324853
      320855 318857 316864 316867 314869 311870 308868 305863
      303860 299861 295866 292872 287887 286896 286904 286914
      285925 279937 275949 271963 269971 268978 272983 277987
      282992 284000 283006 286012 292015 302015 306017 309019
      310022 314023 323016 332009 339006 342000 343989 343977
      345962 346958 350956 355952 361950 365947 370948 387949
      395948 399954 402958 403965 382024 395052 399055 405058
      410061 419062 425064 433061 433066 433071 431073 425077
      421083 418090 412092 409094 407097 407103 409107 414111
      419111 426115 431112 435108 437098 438088 442083 451083
      456080 464065 471054 476050 477046 479039 479027 478017
      477997 476987 475980 476969 478960 481952 483941 488904
      490889
 0.25 276826 276824 274822 272821 270822 270824 270825 272826
      274827 276826
 0.50 485882 485862 485851 483842 481830 478815 475798 471786
      467773 462761 459756 457748 453742 451741 448742 446744
      446746 445755 445761 445768 445775 444781 442788 441796
      440810 440819 440827 441836 440844 437858 436870 433883
      430888 425892 417897 410897 405896 399896 395899 392900
      391898 391888 384879 380876 374876 363876 350877 338882
      326885 314887 309886 303882 299882 295886 293891 292896
      292909 288920 286933 285940 283946 279957 278963 278972
      279981 281984 295997 300999 307000 315005 318010 321011
      324009 329001 333996 334989 336974 337961 339955 343952
      350946 359941 364939 372938 384937 390937 396938 402940
      408942 415948 419952 422953 426954 429952 431949 436947
      439952 440961 438969 439979 441985 446997 452007 451029
      455041 457044 460047 465045 469041 471036 473021 471987
      470979 471972 472957 477925 479911 483897 485882
 0.50 425023 426018 426013 425005 425997 422990 419986 415987
      414989 408998 404004 402007 401005 399006 395009 392014
      391018 391022 399030 401036 405037 410038 415038 419036
      420034 423028 425023
 1.00 474902 470886 471870 472852 471840 470831 469818 468808
      464801 461794 457786 454781 451779 450783 448790 447800
      446808 447820 447831 443868 445888 446899 450905 452913
      454921 456931 454940 454946 455952 456960 457964 460967
      464962 466954 468946 470925 474902
 1.00 379927 380924 380920 377917 373912 370909 371904 374897
      376891 375888 373887 366886 357887 349889 341892 334895
      320902 313905 305906 302907 299910 295916 293920 293926
      292935 292945 291956 289965 288970 289975 291979 294982
      300985 308988 316988 321989 324986 328980 329976 329970
      328962 326951 323945 319942 319938 324934 332931 338928
      344923 348922 350923 355930 358933 362934 369933 372931
      379927
 1.50 464859 463841 462824 461817 459810 455800 451803 450811
      452823 453831 451838 449850 449859 450865 453870 459869
      461865 463859 464859
 1.50 368925 366925 365925 364926 364927 366927 368925 368925
 1.50 360898 358897 355898 351898 347898 345899 342901 341904
      340906 341908 344910 346911 350910 351910 353908 355905
      357903 360901 360898
 1.50 336913 333909 328909 325909 321910 317912 313914 310918
      312922 315925 319926 323925 326922 330920 333917 335914
      336913
 1.50 321977 322972 321968 319962 311952 308945 307937 306929
      306925 308922 309920 306919 301919 299920 297923 296927
      298935 300942 299949 299955 296961 294969 294974 295978
      300981 308982 316983 319981 321978 321977
 2.00 316975 316973 316971 315969 314968 312967 311966 310966
      308966 307966 306967 305968 305969 306971 306972 307973
      308974 309975 310975 312976 314976 315976 316975

$$




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