Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 101837
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
137 PM EST WED JAN 10 2018


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 11/0000 UTC THRU JAN 12/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...PLAINS/MS VALLEY AND AREAS EAST...

A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WITH TWO DISTINCT STREAMS WILL
EJECT OUT INTO THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT DAY. MULTIPLE
STREAKS OF HEAVIER QPF IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS BOTH REGIONS AND
PERHAPS EASTWARD. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE, THAT IMPACTED CA/SOUTHWEST
WITH FLASH FLOODING, WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
LIFT/GLIDE UP ALONG A SURGING NORTHERN POLAR STREAM FRONT AND THE
NEXT SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL UPPER DYNAMICS OVER
THE NW WILL QUICKLY DIG TO THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS
TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY INDUCE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE ARKLATEX. A COUPLE OF HIGHLIGHT
AREAS FOR QPF IS FROM EAST CENTRAL ND THROUGH NORTHERN MN AS SNOW,
AN AXIS OF RAIN OVER TO SNOW FROM EASTERN KS AND NWRN MO THROUGH
CENTRAL IA INTO SERN MN/NWRN WI WHERE .50 TO 1 INCH QPF AMOUNTS
ARE ANTICIPATED AND FINALLY AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE FROM
THE ARKLATEX (POSSIBLE CONVECTION) TO IL/MI (MAINLY SHOWERS/RAIN).
ALSO DOWNSTREAM, INCREASING RETURN FLOW FROM OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST/ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE IDEAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/UPSLOPE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM NERN GA/UPSTATE
SC AND WESTERN NC. WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM FOR MASS FIELDS AND DETAIL WITHIN THE QPF.

...NORTHWEST...

A RATHER POTENT AND PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
ROLL INTO THE PAC NW ON THURS. GUIDANCE IS CAPTURING RATHER
ANOMALOUS PAC MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM, GENERALLY OF OF
THE WEST WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT. EXPECT A COMBINATION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MTN SNOW FROM WA/OR INTO THE INTERIOR NW AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. WPC HIGHLIGHTED COASTAL RANGES OF WA/OR INTO THE CASCADES
AND DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE BLUE, SAWTOOTH AND BITTERROOTS. A BLEND
OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND NAM WAS FOLLOWED HERE.

MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


24HR QP VT 12/00Z
 0.01 520253 522237 522227 517206 515192 512179 511167 512162
      511156 510152 507148 505144 503139 499128 496115 494092
      493084 494074 498064 500054 497051 495053 489058 487062
      487070 485079 481082 477082 473078 460067 454066 455069
      456076 459086 458094 457097 454096 451092 448091 447087
      448081 451076 447070 443067 440067 437064 434059 430052
      429051 425055 424061 421064 419059 420052 420050 417050
      412051 404055 399054 394056 401042 403036 406034 417037
      423033 427036 430037 435038 437035 439030 443029 443041
      446046 450046 453042 460047 468046 475041 486039 493031
      494026 495021 495007 499979 502967 506957 512931 518911
      520900 520892 521887 522879 523873 525860 528845 529838
      529829 530802 531795 530789 531774 532762 531745 529728
      528718 527713 525713 513706 505704 501703 498703 495705
      491705 488706 486704 483697 479687 476682 474681 473684
      469691 470696 469700 462696 461690 460686 459685 449687
      444688 443693 441707 442715 441721 439725 434727 427731
      424737 426743 427750 425757 425761 428766 426770 427778
      426785 422788 417789 412781 410779 406778 402776 402769
      400764 397761 395763 389764 386764 383763 379764 359762
      347765 346768 342768 334764 326761 314763 307763 303761
      295756 289753 285754 281756 269757 259761 253765 251770
      252776 255781 257787 255792 251794 246796 244799 240805
      238809 237814 239817 242820 245816 247811 251811 255813
      262815 262811 258806 258804 260801 265800 267799 272798
      288804 293805 296809 293813 294817 298820 302825 308832
      311835 311841 310845 307848 305850 307852 308855 308858
      304860 302863 297865 288868 278873 273875 270876 270878
      274884 279885 281888 286894 288899 286904 285909 286911
      288916 288922 289925 288926 284929 277937 272943 272947
      273952
 0.01 273952 274954 278955 279960 282967 284969 288969 298969
      299972 294972 286972 281976 281979 283977 289976 296977
      299977 302974 307971 313971 315973 316970 317965 319964
      327962 329961 332962 333965 331968 326971 322978 317984
      313988 311991 314992 323993 326995 327998 322999 321002
      318005 313009 311013 312022 314028 318033 323037 326041
      333045 339047 345051 349053 351052 357048 360048 360052
      355055 349059 341057 335054 330053 325059 325062 328064
      332065 334067 341068 343075 339080 337083 337088 335092
      334088 334084 330081 330084 331088 333091 332095 332099
      334102 339106 342111 343105 343100 345098 348096 352095
      360099 367108 370110 374110 377110 377105 382099 383097
      383094 382090 383086 387085 391087 396090 399089 401084
      401079 404075 411075 422081 424087 425091 424095 418105
      417109 415112 411111 409108 409103 407103 402106 396110
      388112 382113 376117 373122 371130 389141 391150 392156
      389169 386172 385175 389178 392180 399178 402186 404188
      406184 406181 407172 406163 415167 419165 422167 425174
      428189 430188 432186 433189 436197 437200 437204 435207
      430206 421197 417194 415198 412200 410202 407202 407199
      405196 400197 402201 403204 401206 397211 397218 398226
      392227 390227 387231 382232 384236 387238 394243 396245
      397250 403253 413262 418266 422272 425279 427288 427297
      429302 431306 435307 442309 455310 460311 463310 472313
      483314 494308 499304 504298 511284 517267 518258 520253
 0.01 460121 460118 460116 460113 459112 457113 457115 457118
      457120 458123 460121
 0.01 458123 456121 455121 453122 451123 450124 450126 451128
      452128 453127 454126 456125 458123
 0.01 448092 444088 440084 437083 434080 432073 429068 426068
      422067 421072 425077 428081 431087 435090 436093 438091
      445092 448092
 0.01 420223 420221 421219 421217 422214 421212 420210 418209
      416210 417213 417215 417217 418218 418220 416221 416222
      415224 416225 417225 418224 420224 420223
 0.01 428161 428158 427156 425153 425155 426158 427158 428161
      428161
 0.01 411209 411207 410204 408206 408208 409211 411209
 0.01 415153 414148 416144 419130 414122 412120 410122 409126
      403127 398125 395124 392126 393130 397133 400132 403134
      402139 396143 395145 398147 401150 406151 410149 412150
      413153 413155 415153
 0.01 390057 388055 386055 384055 383056 382057 381058 379059
      377059 376060 375062 377064 378064 380062 382062 383060
      384060 385058 386058 388058 390057
 0.01 374078 373075 372073 371071 369071 368072 367075 368077
      368078 370079 372079 374078
 0.01 353188 354186 354184 353184 352183 350183 349185 347187
      346189 346191 346194 348196 349194 350193 351192 351190
      353189 353188
 0.01 360770 358768 356768 354766 353768 353769 352771 353772
      354773 355774 357773 358772 360770
 0.01 363983 362981 359983 355985 348989 342993 337000 331006
      329006 328010 329014 332018 336019 340012 345006 349002
      353000 356000 358994 362985 363983
 0.01 301838 299836 297838 297840 296842 295843 295845 294847
      294849 294851 296851 296849 296847 298845 299842 299840
      301838 301838
 0.25 521771 520762 518753 514737 508732 505731 503735 500743
      497749 491762 488769 486778 479790 477793 474793 469789
      463787 459788 453786 449780 447779 445782 444787 446793
      444802 442806 439810 431840 427847 424853 419857 415861
      405867 394873 388874 380875 366880 363889 356891 348891
      342894 339902 335906 332915 322919 310924 305929 298932
      296934 295937 297941 300942 310948 326946 342945 352936
      369921 380911 391904 394904 396906 403906 409905 414907
      416908 417905 421903 425903 426899 429896 434894 452883
      449891 444898 436908 432913 427917 421922 418928 414932
      411934 407933 406930 405926 402924 398926 390933 387938
      385946 382954 378962 375967 373976 371984 372987 375990
      380990 385988 396978 403969 411961 421954 431945 437940
      442936 452932 455933 457935 459943 459948 458951 455959
      454962 456963 459960 464956 469952 472952 468966 465975
      464980 464987 467994 471995 473994 476989 479982 484965
      489948 496935 499929 500922 504907 510889 511880 512871
      513857 514847 518830 520813 521794 521771
 0.25 500288 502280 502273 505257 502228 500200 497188 495174
      494167 493161 489148 490142 489136 487131 484128 481128
      470126 469129 468135 466140 460140 456142 452147 449149
      444147 439144 436144 434146 433151 434157 437162 440167
      442173 443178 442182 442187 443189 447194 449197 455200
      456205 452210 445213 438214 434217 429219 426222 426225
      429229 432231 432234 427236 420234 414232 411235 409238
      410242 417249 426255 437261 447267 458273 463281 468282
      473285 480294 484297 488298 492297 496295 500288
 0.25 444111 445109 444106 442104 441105 439105 437107 437108
      437110 438112 438113 440114 441115 443113 444111
 0.25 438992 439989 438985 433985 426990 417996 410001 404002
      399004 396008 395011 398013 401014 406014 411014 416013
      419009 422004 429999 433996 438992 438992
 0.25 434806 434802 432798 429798 425800 424801 421804 420806
      420811 421813 423816 427816 428814 431812 433809 434806
 0.25 417814 416811 414809 409812 404818 397824 390829 384834
      380837 377841 381844 386843 393838 396835 400834 405832
      408829 411820 417814
 0.25 393043 393041 392040 391040 390041 389042 388043 389045
      390046 392045 393043
 0.25 384784 371790 366793 359797 352797 345798 342802 345805
      346808 346812 341818 343823 340838 341843 345844 347845
      349842 353837 357830 364816 372804 377799 379797 380791
      384784
 0.25 383822 381822 379822 378823 376826 378827 380827 381826
      383825 383824 383822
 0.25 385011 385007 381006 378007 375008 372008 370010 368012
      369014 370017 374018 376017 379015 381014 383012 385011
 0.25 380047 380043 378040 376038 375037 371037 369037 367039
      366043 368045 370048 371050 374052 377051 379049 380047
 0.25 356084 357082 356080 354080 352082 353084 354084 355085
      356084
 0.25 340799 337796 335792 331790 328789 323791 321793 322797
      322804 322806 326808 329807 332802 336801 340799
 0.25 315783 315779 313775 308775 301776 295773 287767 281765
      275764 270764 263765 257768 256773 258778 263781 272785
      284788 296790 302790 307788 313786 315783
 0.50 500261 496210 493199 487190 484180 485164 484159 481155
      478151 472150 463146 460147 457152 462161 462168 460170
      455172 452170 450164 451158 448154 445152 439150 437151
      437155 442163 446172 448177 447184 449187 452187 456186
      464183 467183 470185 472188 472195 470201 467205 462207
      455211 447214 439216 436220 431222 430223 431226 434228
      440230 439233 436237 434242 436245 439246 448253 452255
      457258 462265 472271 480276 484279 488280 492278 495271
      500261
 0.50 510817 509811 507802 505801 502803 500810 497822 494828
      490833 486836 481838 476840 473844 473846 474852 475860
      474867 474870 471872 467873 464879 457890 451900 445911
      439918 430926 412940 408942 402942 396943 391948 389953
      386959 383964 381970 380975 382981 388978 393975 400967
      407959 411954 414952 425945 432937 440928 447922 451918
      456915 467912 477905 478909 478913 478922 479925 483925
      486920 498899 503888 505871 505862 506854 508838 510827
      510817
 0.50 453230 452229 451229 449229 448229 447231 448232 449232
      450232 452231 453230
 0.50 468836 466814 464807 462807 461811 456825 451830 450833
      450838 454842 449843 443848 440847 437849 432853 430856
      430862 434866 438868 442867 447864 453860 458856 460854
      460849 461843 462841 465841 468836
 0.50 430245 429242 428239 425238 421237 418236 415236 414238
      415241 416244 418246 421248 425248 428247 430245
 0.50 427879 426878 426876 425875 423874 421873 419872 417871
      416871 415872 415875 416876 417877 418878 419879 420880
      421881 422881 423882 425881 427879 427879
 0.50 399878 398878 397878 396881 397881 398881 398879 399878
 0.50 396883 395882 394881 393881 392883 393885 395883 396883
 0.50 369804 370801 368798 364800 356804 354805 353808 352813
      350817 349822 346831 344839 348840 351837 355830 359822
      364814 368806 369804
 0.50 372909 369907 365908 359910 353914 351916 348919 342921
      335922 327923 321926 311933 312937 311942 313945 317944
      330939 343936 354930 359926 363921 368916 371911 372909
 0.50 298781 296778 293776 287773 281770 276768 266768 260771
      260775 262777 268780 275782 281784 289785 293785 298783
      298781
 1.00 492253 493247 493242 491232 492219 491214 489209 487206
      482204 475205 462211 455214 449217 444217 441219 441222
      444227 452226 456228 455232 449234 446236 445239 447241
      456243 463248 474260 478262 482263 488260 492253
 1.00 486223 484222 483222 481223 480223 480226 480228 482229
      484228 484227 485225 486223 486223
 1.00 475164 475161 473161 471160 470159 468160 469162 469165
      471167 472167 474166 475164
 1.00 461178 459177 457178 456179 457181 459181 460180 461178
      461178
 1.00 425244 425242 424240 423239 421239 419240 419242 420244
      422245 423244 425244
 1.00 354828 354826 352824 351825 350826 349828 349829 348831
      348833 350835 351833 353830 354828
 1.00 327930 326930 325930 324930 325931 326930 327930
 1.00 323932 321932 320932 321934 323932 323932
 1.00 283775 282774 281773 280773 278772 277772 276771 274771
      272772 272773 272775 273775 275776 277776 279777 280776
      282777 283775
 1.50 486248 488244 487238 481234 477230 474227 475222 480220
      486220 489218 488214 483209 479208 472210 461214 456217
      454218 452220 453223 458227 461228 462230 461233 456235
      453235 454238 458238 462239 467244 480250 484250 486248
 1.50 467229 466229 465228 463228 463229 464230 466230 467229
 1.50 452223 452221 450220 449219 447218 446219 445219 444220
      444223 444224 446225 448225 449224 450223 452223 452223
 1.50 351831 352828 351826 350829 349830 349831 349832 351831
      351831
 2.00 483242 482239 480236 478233 476231 473231 471233 469235
      467237 470240 473241 476243 478243 480244 483242
 2.00 483217 481212 476211 472212 468213 465215 461216 457219
      457223 460225 463226 467224 471222 474220 478218 482217
      483217
 3.00 471218 472216 471216 470216 468217 467217 466217 464218
      463218 462219 461220 460220 460221 462222 464222 466222
      467221 469220 471218 471218

$$





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