Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 201852
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 PM EDT MON MAR 20 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 21/0000 UTC THRU MAR 22/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

THERE ARE NO MAJOR MASS FIELD DIFFERENCES AS THE STRONG NORTHEAST
PACIFIC TROF---STRETCHING INITIALLY SOUTH OF 40N ALONG
135W---PRESSES EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST THIS PERIOD.
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN AN AXIS OF 2+
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN PW ANOMALIES WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS FROM THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN COAST RANGE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OREGON AND INLAND THROUGH
THE SIERRA INTO THE SHASTA/SISKIYOUS.  LESS FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW
COMPONENT FARTHER TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
SUPPORT GENERALLY MODERATE TOTALS THROUGH THE WASHINGTON/OREGON
CASCADES WESTWARD TO THE WA/OR COAST RANGES.

PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS

WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING EASTWARD FROM THE LEE OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION.  THIS WILL
SUPPORT A STRIPE OF MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHEAST MT---EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NE---INTO WEST CENTRAL IA.  SEE THE LATEST
QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY

THE NEXT ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO FIRE IN
THE MAX ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE AHEAD OF A SURFACE WAVE PUSHING
EASTWARD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT.
MODEL PERFORMANCE ON THE FIRST ROUND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WAS POOR---WITH THE MODELS TOO FAR
TO THE NORTHEAST AND SLOW TO DEVELOP THE ACTIVITY.  AT THE
MOMENT---THE HI RES MODELS---ARW---NMMB--NSSL WRF---NAM CONEST ARE
ALREADY AN HOUR TO TWO SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS NEXT ROUND OF
ACTIVITY.  MODELS DO---HOWEVER---TRACK THIS NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVITY
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS---WEAKENING THE ACTIVITY PRIOR TO 1200 UTC.  THE DAY
1 QPF LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT WERE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST---INITIALLY THE HRRR AND TRANSITIONING INTO THE
GFS.  A BROAD MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS PRECIP AREA FOR ISOLATED TOTALS OF 1"+ IN
AN HOUR.  OVERALL---THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST---BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME TRAINING POTENTIAL ON
THE WEST END OF THE CONVECTION WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
PARALLEL TO THE LINE.  PRECIP MAY RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MS/OH CONFLUENCE--WITH AREAL AVERAGE
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF .25"+ DEPICTED.

GREAT LAKES

A STRONG COLD FRONT PRESSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY MORNING WILL SUPPORT INCREASING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI AS NORTHWEST FLOW
STRENGTHENS OFF OF THESE LAKES.  THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY 1
PERIOD---THIS FRONT SHOULD JUST BE ENTERING THE LOWER LAKES---WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING DAY 2 OFF THE LOWER LAKES.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 22/00Z
 0.01 517262 519254 520247 517241 514237 511233 508229 507222
      506216 508210 510205 514197 516184 513176 508169 497166
      488161 485160 484157 484150 480129 477126 475126 473123
      472120 471113 471107 468102 469090 470080 469075 466065
      461045 458035 456022 454011 449999 445988 441980 437971
      434961 428940 421918 418906 416900 415896 412890 409888
      407874 407868 405864 404852 404848 402843 402836 403830
      413828 417825 418820 419814 420805 420798 419790 416781
      411781 408780 404776 402771 401763 400757 396752 393749
      390746 386744 380745 376744 366746 353753 349753 346756
      341763 339773 337781 335795 335802 334808 335815 334820
      329828 327832 327838 331849 334854 337857 341867 347886
      352906 353920 355930 359950 362953 366956 368959 374959
      382954 386943 386928 383917 380903 380889 379875 377869
      379867 380868 384870 388871 392870 394871 395874 399897
      399904 401909 402923 403955 403968 406977 410987 414997
      416003 416012 417017 417024 417037 413046 408047 407052
      405063 405068 406072 408077 413078 420074 423072 428072
      437076 444081 449083 448088 440091 438094 436095 432092
      428089 427090 429094 433098 438107 444115 448122 452129
      456138 457142 457147 449147 439145 435146 430146 421149
      414152 405157 400159 397156 385154 381155 375154 370155
      367158 366166 368171 368175 365177 357179 354182 350182
      348172 347169 343166 339167 337171 330178 325186 322191
      320196 321201 323205 325209 325213 328223 328227 325229
      317234 314239 318242 327244 335244 340244 345245 348248
      354250 360256 391274 428268 445267
 0.01 445267 450268 454271 463274 471279 475281 479281 483279
      485283 491292 495299 501296 508291 511281 515268 517262
 0.01 520747 521738 519729 518725 517722 513722 508723 505727
      503728 501724 495712 492710 489712 479728 473737 467744
      462753 460755 458754 459749 462737 467727 471720 478711
      483703 486691 487684 487678 484677 481679 476669 471670
      467674 455687 447695 444698 441703 440708 435708 430710
      427713 425725 426728 429732 432733 433737 430742 429748
      430755 432761 432765 431769 431775 434779 438780 444779
      447780 446782 444786 442795 446805 450807 455806 461797
      469789 467811 465823 465833 467839 466846 464851 455852
      443853 441853 441856 444858 452863 454867 457870 460873
      462879 461885 462890 463898 465903 468907 470907 473902
      474895 475888 475880 477867 478862 480858 484867 486876
      486884 487888 488897 489902 491909 492916 494922 496929
      499933 502934 506933 513930 514924 514915 515900 518871
      519865 519856 516842 514837 514833 516820 516767 518757
      520747
 0.01 363803 364798 364794 362790 361787 360785 359781 357777
      354779 355784 355786 354790 355795 355799 357801 358804
      360806 362807 363805 363803
 0.25 510257 511251 510246 507240 504231 501222 497216 492215
      491220 491224 494233 498239 502246 505253 508257 510257
 0.25 504278 505274 505268 502262 496253 491242 487237 483237
      480231 474228 470225 470217 469214 466213 460212 454211
      448211 442211 437214 432214 428210 423207 420209 414211
      409208 389195 380188 375185 369183 363181 357182 355185
      356189 358193 357197 356199 351195 347185 345180 343177
      341178 336188 335196 336202 336209 339214 347223 352226
      356228 363231 369235 376242 386249 391253 396254 409257
      415258 419258 431258 441256 451253 456250 459247 462246
      465247 470251 479259 488267 495275 500280 504278
 0.25 503844 503842 503840 502842 502844 503845 503844
 0.25 449041 450035 449031 445024 439007 434991 429975 422961
      420957 418961 418973 421992 423001 426008 434021 437029
      438038 443043 447044 449041
 0.25 427060 426060 426058 425057 423056 421058 422060 423061
      424063 425063 426062 427060
 0.25 394798 392795 389794 384796 379800 374805 367815 358825
      353829 350835 348842 348851 345857 347864 352879 356893
      359910 362918 364923 369928 373928 374925 374919 373914
      372907 369891 366874 365864 366856 369849 373844 380842
      388842 392836 390829 388818 390810 392804 394798
 0.50 503244 502241 501238 499237 500240 502241 503244 503244
 0.50 495259 493256 492253 491250 489247 487246 486246 487249
      487251 488254 491258 492258 493259 495259
 0.50 444242 445239 444237 439236 432237 422234 418231 417227
      418220 416215 412213 407211 401205 393200 379190 372185
      366183 361182 358185 360190 366195 377209 380212 385214
      393218 397221 397223 394223 384219 380221 377221 375219
      372216 367215 361208 354202 351200 349196 346187 342186
      340191 339197 340202 341206 345210 348212 350216 357222
      365226 371228 374230 382236 388243 394247 400250 405251
      413252 423252 430250 444242
 0.50 387833 385827 384820 383811 383806 378807 374812 371817
      368822 365828 364833 369833 376834 382835 385835 387833
 0.50 366905 366903 365903 364901 364898 364896 363896 363898
      363901 363903 364905 366906 366905
 0.50 359839 360836 359834 358837 359839 359839
 0.50 359876 358874 358872 358870 357869 356868 355867 354868
      353869 353870 354871 355872 355874 355875 357877 357878
      359876
 1.00 429243 413231 415219 412216 407214 400207 392202 376190
      368185 364185 364189 377203 384209 392215 401220 404221
      404223 403229 397229 393230 390234 392238 399244 405246
      409246 419246 427244 429243
 1.00 363218 363216 361213 359210 357209 355207 352205 348205
      350208 353211 355212 356214 359217 361218 363218
 1.00 348201 348198 347196 347194 346193 345193 344193 344195
      344196 345198 346200 347203 348201
 1.50 412226 413224 414222 414219 413218 412217 410217 409218
      408219 407220 406222 406224 406227 407228 407229 408230
      409232 410230 412228 412227 412226
 1.50 405241 406238 405236 404235 403235 402234 400234 400235
      399236 398239 399240 400242 401242 402242 403242 404241
      405241
 1.50 402216 402212 399208 394204 387201 381196 376191 372190
      370192 375197 380202 386207 391211 398216 402216
 2.00 413221 412219 411219 410220 409220 408222 408225 409226
      410228 411226 412224 413223 413221
 2.00 401213 400211 399209 397208 395206 394205 392205 391206
      391209 393211 394212 395212 396214 398215 399215 401213

$$




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