Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 240915
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
514 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 24/1200 UTC THRU APR 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE GT LAKES AND SWD INTO THE CNTL
PLAINS....

UPR LOW INITIALLY OVER WY IS FCST TO LIFT GRADUALLY ENEWD THIS PD
THRU THE ERN DAKOTAS BY MON MRNG.  MEANWHILE DEEP UPR TROF OVER
ERN CANADA WILL ALLOW HIGH PRES TO SETTLE SWD THRU CNTL/ERN
CANADA..HELPING TO SET UP AN INTENSIFYING E/W FRONTAL BNDRY THRU
THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VALLEY.  LOW PRES ASSOCD WITH WY UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD WITH INCREASING MSTR FLUX TO THE EAST OF
THE LOW OVERRUNNING THE E/W FRONT LEADING TO WIDESPREAD AND
INCREASINGLY HEAVY RAIN THRU PARTS OF THE NRN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPR
MS VALLEY/NRN GT LAKES.  A WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD BAND IS
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACRS ERN MT/WY SUN MRNG WITH STG E/NELY 85H
FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING UPR DIFFLUENCE AND MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY LEADING TO SOME MDTLY TO HEAVY RAINS ACRS THIS
REGION...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVER THE HIER ELEVS OF THE
ROCKIES..ESPECIALLY THE BIG HORNS.  MODELS ARE REASONABLY CLOSE
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPR LOW..WITH JUST MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES.  SOME LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE MODEL
QPFS...THOUGH BASIC AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH TWO MAIN AXES OF HEAVIER
QPF..ONE WITH THE COMMA HEAD ACRS NE WY INTO WRN ND...AND THE
OTHER IN THE STG ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE ACRS PORTIONS OF MN EWD INTO
NRN WI/UPR MI AIDED BY STG RT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR JET NORTH OF
THE GT LAKES.  THE 12Z ARW WHICH HAD BEEN NORTH OF MOST OF THE
GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH IN THE 00Z MODEL RUN..WITH ITS
AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN ALIGNING BETTER WITH THE 85H-7H CONVERGENCE
AXES.  THIS ADJUSTMENT SWD ALLOWS FOR A BETTER FIT WITH MOST OF
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE ACRS THE UPR MS VALLEY WHERE POTNL FOR
TRAINING OF ELEVATED CONVECTION APPEARS REASONABLE WITH GENL 1 TO
2 INCH PLUS AREAL AVG AMOUNTS LIKELY WITH ISOLD HEAVIER AMOUNTS
ACRS CNTL MN INTO NRN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI.  IN THE WARM SECTOR
EAST OF THE LOW...SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ARE MOST LIKELY AHEAD OF ASSOCD
VORT LOBE PIVOTING NEWD ACRS THE CNTL PLAINS/MO VALLEY THRU SUN
NIGHT.  THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL WERE REASONABLY CLOSE IN
DEPICTING .50 TO 1 INCH RAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PUSHES INTO WRN IA/ERN NEB AND ERN KS.


...WESTERN U.S...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST
COAST DVLPG A CLOSED 7H/5H CIRC OVER THE SRN GT BASIN BY MON MRNG.
 AS SYSTEM CLOSES OFF ACRS THE GT BASIN...EXPECT RAINS AND HIER
ELEV SNOWS TO BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED ACRS THIS AREA SUN
NIGHT.  THERE IS GENLY GOOD MASS FIELD AGREEMENT HERE AND
REASONABLY GOOD RUN TO RUN MODEL AGREEMENT..SO FOR MOST AREAS
BLENDED MODEL QPFS ALONG WITH CONTINUITY.

...RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH TEXAS...

LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY INFLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
CLUSTERS OF SHWERS/TSTMS MAINLY FIRST HALF OF PD ACRS SRN TX.  LOW
CONFIDENCE IN FCST HERE AS MODELS SHOW LARGE QPF SPREAD WITH BOTH
THE GFS AND 12Z EC SHOWING SIGNS OF GRID SCALE FEEDBACK.  AS A
RESULT..HAVE GONE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE WITH AMOUNTS...LEANING
TOWARD ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GIVEN LOW PREDICTABILITY.

DAYS 2/3...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST...

THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY WILL SHEAR OUT AND
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...FOCUSED ALONG THE SHARP WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY TRENDING TOWARDS A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE NCEP MODELS ARE LIKELY LAGGING THE TREND A
BIT. THIS TREND BEING FOR A SLIGHTLY NORTH QPF AXIS ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...AND SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. WPC QPF FOLLOWS A MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS...ALTHOUGH LEANED
TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS WHICH APPEAR TO BE
LEADING THE WAY WITH REGARDS TO TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. LIKELY TO
HAVE TWO AREAS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ONE ACROSS NORTHERN
WI/MI CLOSER TO THE STRONGER WEST/EAST FRONTAL ZONE...AND ANOTHER
IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN MI WHERE CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED 1-2"
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS MORE CONVECTIVE AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN
MI (POSSIBLY INTO NORTHERN OH)...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD PREVENT HIGHER AMOUNTS.


...UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE PLAINS BY
TUE/WED...

DAY 2

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL
COOLING TO ALLOW FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW CENTER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TAKES
ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
FORCING WILL INCREASE...AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE WRAP
AROUND THE LOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY. MODELS WERE OVERALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON DAY 2 WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH JUST SOME MINOR
TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING WITHIN THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW. IN GENERAL WPC QPF FOLLOWED
CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET AND THE GEFS/ECMWF MEAN.
THIS PINPOINTS TWO LOCATIONS FOR HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS...ONE NEAR THE
NV/UT/ID STATE LINES...AND ANOTHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WY. WHILE
THIS GENERAL BLEND WAS USED...MORE EMPHASIS WAS GIVEN TO THE
ECMWF/UKMET...AS THE GFS QPF DISTRIBUTION SEEMED OFF ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MT/WY GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYSTEM EVOLUTION.

DAY 3

THE SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS ON DAY 3...AND AGAIN THE MODELS
ARE SYNOPTICALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. MINOR DIFFERENCES
EXIST...BUT NOTHING THAT STANDS OUT AS BEING A STRONG OUTLIER.
GIVEN THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH...THE
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS SOLUTIONS VARY ON
THE EXACT SHORTWAVE EVOLUTION. THESE DETAILS WILL IMPACT THE QPF
DISTRIBUTION...SO WHILE CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE ON THE GENERAL
QPF PATTERN...EXACTLY WHERE THE MAXES END UP IS LOW CONFIDENCE.
WPC QPF STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/UKMET...ALONG
WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION OF THE GEFS AND ECMWF MEANS.

THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
BEING ABLE TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT QPF
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD/NE ON DAY 3 ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. MEANWHILE SHOULD HAVE CONVECTION BREAK
OUT ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NE SOUTH INTO
KS/OK/TX. GENERALLY LOOKING AT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND MOISTURE
FLUX AROUND 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MAY END UP SEEING TWO
AREAS OF RELATIVE MAXIMUM QPF WITHIN THIS BROAD CONVECTIVE REGION.
ONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO AND NORTHEAST KS CLOSEST TO
THE BEST UPPER FORCING...WHERE SOUTH TO NORTH STORM MOTIONS COULD
ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE ROUNDS AS THE BEST FORCING
APPROACHES. THE OTHER IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEAST OK ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT. IN GENERAL
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE PRETTY PROGRESSIVE...BUT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION...THINGS COULD BECOME MORE ALIGNED
WEST TO EAST FOR A PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN
WINDS AND ALLOW FOR SOME TRAINING/BACKBUILDING. ALTHOUGH EVEN WITH
THIS TRAINING..STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
GIVEN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR EASTWARD PROPAGATION. IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO LOCATIONS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE. CONSIDERED SPLITTING THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL INTO TWO AREAS TO MATCH THIS THINKING. BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION THAT THOUGHT IT WAS BEST
TO JUST INCLUDE MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR IN THE SLIGHT RISK. AT
THIS TIME APPEARS MORE OF A MARGINAL SLIGHT RISK...HOWEVER WHERE
TRAINING DOES OCCUR THE MOISTURE/FORCING/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FLOOD RISK.

MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SOUTHERN EVOLUTION ACROSS TX...AS MODEL
QPFS VARY GREATLY. THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION
PROPAGATING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS. DID LEAN THE FORECAST IN
THAT DIRECTION...AS THE WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY DISTRIBUTION
WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ORGANIZING AND PROPAGATING OFF TO
THE EAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. HOWEVER THE ECMWF DOES APPEAR A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THUS UPPER FORCING THAN THE
BEST MODEL CLUSTERING...AND UNCLEAR WHAT IMPACT THIS IS HAVING ON
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION WITHIN THE MODEL. SO WHILE LEANED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION ACROSS TX...DID NOT GO QUITE AS
EXTREME. MORE CONFIDENT IN THE QPF ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST TX INTO
EASTERN OK CLOSER TO THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SULLIVAN/CHENARD

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 514285 508285 504284 501281 498275 495267 491263 486262
      481260 478261 469259 462264 458270 453274 450277 444278
      437280 435277 432275 426271 424265 412257 406251 404244
      402241 403237 405232 406225 401217 396215 393212 388208
      382205 373197 358190 356188 356184 363182 365181 366176
      364173 360172 359169 359163 360158 362155 370139 372135
      373129 375123 378120 379117 382116 389114 394110 398108
      395104 397101 399101 400104 403105 404102 406098 406093
      406087 405084 405079 401077 399081 397080 398071 405043
      405035 405028 419024 425022 426018 425015 425006 429999
      431991 427988 423988 416986 407985 397985 389988 381991
      372994 367996 361999 354001 352002 351000 349994 349990
      351989 359978 359975 360972 360967 362963 366956 371952
      377948 381945 384940 387932 387926 389921 389917 391913
      392908 404899 408896 415895 423895 426894 430893 435888
      436885 436879 436873 435868 434864 435860 436833 434806
      434766 434763 437761 440757 442754 444759 446765 453779
      455782 459783 460786 461792 463798 465795 468794 472794
      475796 478800 480813 480818 482822 481829 481840 480851
      479858 479869 478873 478878 479889 483933 485960 488986
      488995 489002 490023 492043 493053 497059 508068 513074
      515075 517079 519084 522088 527093 531097 533101 536110
      540154 541149 542147 546143 550142 553145
 0.01 483186 481182 479180 478177 475177 473178 467182 462186
      456192 453199 450202 449204 450207 459209 466207 471205
      475204 477202 477198 479195 482188 483186
 0.01 434136 435125 435121 433121 426129 425120 419119 417116
      421102 423095 420090 415086 412085 409087 408097 409103
      412109 414115 419128 422133 427136 432137 434136
 0.01 341168 339166 338165 336165 334164 332164 331164 329164
      327165 328168 330170 332170 333170 335170 337170 339170
      341170 341168
 0.01 300002 301997 300994 297987 300982 301980 302975 301970
      300967 299963 300959 297954 292955 288954 287950 287941
      290937 290931 286924 284921 280920 273921 268923 256932
      255939 252941 245943 238946 234952 234959 233967 232970
      233974 238976 240979 239983 236989 235993 236996 240000
      245002 258000 261995 264993 266995 281000 291006 294008
      298006 300002
 0.01 279834 280831 278830 280827 277824 276820 271816 265813
      258810 255809 252810 251813 253816 257820 263824 267825
      269829 274832 279834
 0.25 540205 536195 530183 528173 524165 519156 514153 507154
      506158 506166 504176 509185 512191 511200 510206 508210
      504213 501214 497215 495215 491211 488209 484208 476210
      470214 435219 431220 427223 425230 428236 430239 429245
      430248 432248 435249 443247 448244 450243 452239 444238
      441236 442232 446230 450229 456229 460226 474221 479223
      485223 489223 493223 495226 497230 498236 502244 504246
      506244 506237 505234 512235 525228 536224
 0.25 504098 504092 503087 500079 494071 489061 487052 485041
      485017 485006 484992 481963 479944 477920 476906 475892
      473879 471864 468845 465834 462824 455806 452802 448800
      446804 444811 443822 443833 444856 444883 444896 441908
      438914 435917 432916 429918 428922 423927 410936 402942
      395947 389951 385957 374967 372971 373977 377977 381976
      385974 391973 401972 409972 417972 435974 439975 442978
      447985 451994 452000 451009 451013 449018 445024 440029
      436036 435042 433045 424046 421048 418053 416059 415066
      439082 443083 446086 449095 450108 454110 457108 460106
      464104 471105 487103 497101 504098
 0.25 480244 481242 481239 481236 479233 478232 476231 475231
      473231 473232 471233 471236 471238 472239 473241 473242
      475243 476244 478244 479244 480244
 0.25 454125 454122 451121 449122 447126 445128 445130 445135
      446138 448140 449141 452141 453137 453132 454127 454125
 0.25 430190 431184 429179 426172 423169 421164 421155 421149
      417145 409144 400144 393145 386150 384153 382158 386167
      386172 385175 385180 388180 392178 396177 403177 408181
      411184 411190 409199 410203 415205 422205 426201 428196
      430190
 0.25 434090 433088 431088 430087 428089 428090 428092 429093
      431093 433092 434090
 0.25 374191 373190 371189 370190 371191 372191 374191
 0.25 290981 291966 288961 285959 280957 274956 263955 252953
      247955 245960 246966 248970 253974 257975 268978 275983
      280986 286985 290981
 0.50 531210 529209 528207 526206 525205 523204 522204 521205
      520206 519207 519209 519211 519212 520214 522214 524214
      526213 527212 529213 531211 531210
 0.50 486217 485217 483216 482215 480214 479214 477214 476215
      477216 477217 478219 480219 481220 483220 484219 485218
      486217
 0.50 487083 486073 486068 484064 481057 480049 481041 482029
      482019 482997 480978 477952 476931 475912 473891 469865
      465846 461832 454818 451815 449818 448830 449872 447879
      448888 448895 448902 445912 439925 435929 430931 417938
      410942 404948 395956 393958 394963 400966 408967 415966
      425966 430964 432960 433951 438955 441960 442965 443967
      451979 457986 459989 460995 460004 460015 459024 457028
      454030 449032 445034 443036 442041 442048 440053 436054
      423055 423058 425062 428068 432075 434076 437074 440073
      444075 450081 455086 460085 466084 471087 476089 483087
      486085 487083
 0.50 418156 418154 417151 415150 413150 412150 411151 410152
      409152 409154 409155 411155 413157 414160 414161 416161
      417158 418157 418156
 0.50 402158 403155 402155 400154 399154 398154 397155 395155
      394156 393157 393158 393159 394161 396161 397161 398161
      400160 401160 402159 402158
 0.50 287972 288967 286963 279960 272959 265960 257959 254960
      253964 255967 257969 264971 272973 277978 282978 285976
      287972
 1.00 480017 479004 479999 477994 475991 473989 471992 470996
      468001 468023 464033 459037 457049 456054 452056 446060
      440063 437066 436069 445071 451077 455077 457074 459069
      462066 467060 469057 471051 472047 475044 478034 479022
      480017
 1.00 472947 473931 472915 470897 468885 464868 462854 458839
      455837 455845 455854 455862 454877 452883 452894 451908
      448924 448931 450935 454940 456948 454953 450956 451961
      455966 460976 463980 467980 469978 471973 472964 472952
      472947
 1.00 419947 417946 416946 415947 414948 412948 411949 410951
      409951 408952 409952 410953 412953 413952 414951 416950
      416949 417948 419947
 1.50 476019 477017 477014 477012 477009 477008 476007 476004
      475002 474004 473006 472009 471011 471012 472014 473016
      473017 474019 474021 474022 475021 476019 476019
 1.50 470937 470929 470922 469907 467895 464886 462880 460879
      458881 456885 455891 454903 455918 458927 462936 465940
      469940 470937
 2.00 467927 467917 467910 465900 463893 461888 458891 456898
      456908 457915 460923 463927 466930 467927

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 533709 531707 529705 529702 527698 525695 525693 522688
      520686 519684 517682 516679 515675 515669 515667 514662
      513657 515653
 0.01 443630 446633 449638 452654 450666 451672 450679 455712
      457729 457736 457742 459758 462772 469796 477820 478837
      480849 481867 482875 483882 484898 485914 482974 481989
      480006 480015 481020 484032 487038 489043 493055 497065
      502072 510081 517088 524092 528103 531109 532114 533117
      533122 532130 532139 532148 534160 542168 545175 547177
      536221 531224 526225 521226 516228 512232 506233 502232
      498232 495231 493228 489225 480224 477227 480231 485233
      489239 486243 476235 468227 463221 464218 468215 472211
      478208 484208 490208 495207 499204 502201 505196 508190
      510182 511176 509173 504174 501174 498173 487164 478157
      477155 474156 472156 470160 464166 460166 459170 456177
      449188 444191 441191 438192 427194 419202 414205 412207
      409206 406203 401202 397206 395210 388209 382207 369200
      360192 354189 353187 354185 357184 359181 358173 358164
      356159 346138 347130 344123 343118 344114 346112 370114
      376113 378110 377107 375091 368081 366075 365069 365065
      364063 366058 366053 368051 372048 376046 377043 378038
      378033 380028 383027 384023 384018 385016 386011 388008
      390001 387995 377972 368963 366960 364954 362952 362946
      364939 366934 370930 373922 375915 377901 372903 365903
      364898 365892 368885 370878 371869 373864 376857 379852
      387843 389837 388827 386820 386812 388806 391801 397791
      399784 398774 397765 400760 402754 405748 406741 405732
      404722 402715 400705 398699 395682 399673 410650 418638
 0.01 520244 518243 518244 518246 518247 518246 520245 520244
 0.01 460237 459230 457224 454220 447217 441217 436219 432222
      429223 428225 427233 428240 425244 421248 419249 418254
      421257 428260 432258 441251 450247 455244 458239 460237
 0.01 448036 450031 450027 451017 451007 451003 449000 446993
      443988 439976 432947 421926 418919 415914 411912 409914
      407919 403926 402929 402933 398947 395961 395971 395975
      397977 405986 410989 413993 424998 427999 429001 432006
      444028 448036
 0.01 394922 396917 396913 392911 391913 387915 387918 385920
      384925 386927 388929 390931 391933 393936 394933 394929
      394924 394922
 0.01 357841 353833 351831 348832 339834 335837 330837 319838
      312834 304831 300825 294820 287816 279815 271812 267810
      264807 266805 269805 272806 281807 282803 279801 275799
      272799 263798 252800 248804 249809 252812 256819 258823
      262825 269827 279826 282825 285827 289828 292829 295832
      296837 292839 283840 275838 272839 269841 268845 270849
      276853 280854 285854 294852 298852 302854 311855 316854
      320855 330854 333852 337852 342847 350846 356846 357841
 0.01 344175 344171 343169 341167 339166 338165 334166 330165
      327165 327166 328168 332169 335169 338172 340175 342176
      344175
 0.01 316937 316922 316914 314909 308903 303900 299903 293911
      291915 291922 291930 289935 287940 286945 289949 293952
      297954 301952 306950 309947 314939 316937
 0.25 507104 506095 504090 493084 483079 473083 464088 458090
      453088 448084 445083 444081 449080 449075 447067 445060
      444052 442047 435038 426030 421029 415030 409032 405035
      402049 399054 398058 400060 402066 407068 413071 417075
      420079 421083 420087 421095 421099 420102 417104 414104
      407103 402104 396107 379121 375125 372130 373133 375136
      379139 380150 384154 389157 397166 403168 409167 420165
      424165 428161 435149 438143 440141 443141 450143 455142
      464134 468130 473130 486131 497129 502118 505110 507104
 0.25 479932 479920 479912 477891 476872 474853 473844 471836
      467818 459785 457777 455770 450754 445737 443731 440726
      436720 431718 428723 426730 425738 423742 421751 421759
      422767 422774 420781 417787 409796 406801 404808 405819
      407826 409834 411842 413848 412854 409861 408868 409877
      411880 414881 425876 428882 431886 435902 441914 444921
      443929 442939 442944 445946 451943 454940 458934 460932
      463932 465939 465951 464960 462966 460973 459978 460984
      464998 467004 470004 472002 474995 475986 475974 476967
      479932
 0.25 383140 383138 382138 381140 382141 383140
 0.25 381945 382943 380941 379940 377940 377941 375942 374943
      374945 375947 377949 379949 380947 381945
 0.50 475892 475878 473867 470845 463825 459805 456792 453782
      449775 444769 442764 441758 438747 436744 435751 437760
      438767 437771 434780 433783 432790 433796 433802 433807
      430811 424806 421806 417808 415810 413814 413823 415828
      417832 419836 420841 421853 421860 422865 429869 431873
      434876 438882 441886 444885 446882 449884 453889 457898
      462918 467926 471925 473922 475905 475892
 0.50 461925 460919 457915 453913 451913 448917 448923 448930
      447936 449939 452936 454932 457930 460925 461925
 0.50 444841 444836 443834 441829 440827 439825 436823 434822
      432824 432828 433830 435834 436837 438839 439842 442844
      443844 444841
 0.50 439098 440093 439091 438088 436085 434083 432081 428082
      427083 425086 425091 427094 429096 431098 433099 435100
      437100 439098
 0.50 434121 433117 431115 427115 424117 419121 415121 413118
      411116 407117 401120 399123 401127 406132 396138 391143
      389148 392151 402153 407153 410151 413150 415153 416156
      420157 424152 427143 429135 434121
 0.50 437069 437059 436053 434049 429045 426043 422043 415043
      408047 407050 408054 412060 417064 425067 431072 435072
      437069
 1.00 432850 432847 431845 430843 429840 428840 426840 426841
      425843 425846 425847 426848 427850 429852 430852 432850
      432850
 1.00 425058 426056 425053 423051 422050 420049 418049 416049
      415050 416052 416054 417055 418056 419057 420058 421059
      423059 425058 425058

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 497327 486327 476325 464321 458317 456312 453306 452300
      451294 449292 446292 442294 436294 431293 424291 412289
      402285 396282 391281 387278 380276 373274 368271 361264
      357259 356254 362244 370237 376239 381238 388238 389235
      391224 396222 397217 396215 390212 384210 379208 375205
      369194 366189 368182 380184 404185 410187 415191 421192
      424196 439214 448220 453223 457226 466233 469235 472235
      478234 484237 486235 489236 492238 497237 501238 507240
      512244 518246 522247 524246 527246 530244
 0.01 542196 532192 529189 526185 513173 509167 507173 504175
      498180 490179 485177 483174 481169 480163 478161 475161
      472164 468167 464167 460165 457162 453156 450156 447158
      443159 441159 439156 433150 431148 428148 426151 422153
      418152 410145 402146 394145 389140 384139 382137 378133
      376127 378112 378108 377105 375101 371093 367087 366083
      363080 360076 358073 357067 357062 362055 368048 374043
      378041 380037 384030 387019 386008 383000 377993 372992
      365992 355996 347000 333008 325012 318014 314018 311020
      307021 302022 298023 295021 292018 290014 272991 277985
      277981 279976 282972 284966 288958 290947 293938 295931
      299929 299924 298920 298913 300908 302904 305901 308899
      309896 309892 317886 323883 331879 330872 335863 338849
      337843 339839 341836 346835 350833 353830 356822 359814
      359808 359801 359789 358784 357777 355773 354770 351769
      346770 342768 329774 328772 329768 333761 335757 338751
      342741 345733 352728 356721 360715 372702 377693 381684
      386677 392671 397668 399666 406659 412653 418648 421645
      426643 437640 444639 449639 452640 455643 451686 454714
      455729 454735 455742 454766 455779 455790 455806 455821
      455833 454836 454840 454845 441857 424858 420856 414856
      412857 410860 408864 409868 411873 415882 420891 424900
      428907 432912 436917 440921 445928 452947 455959 458970
      461977 465984 472006 476016 478028 479039 480044 480051
      483062 492063 499070 505080 508083 512084 515087 517087
      522088 525092 529090 535085 547077 555070 558070 559073
      562076 562079
 0.01 556122 552121 547118 543117 539119 536120 533122 531125
      534128 537131 541132 546134 551135 554138
 0.01 562856 552857 545853 539845 533840 526835 522832 520832
      520829 511807 501790 494766 493758 494752 494746 495740
      500716 501709 501703 503697 505694 509695 514693 516688
      513683 514675 515671 516658
 0.01 565055 565052 565049 565048 564046 564043 564041 562039
      562040 561042 561043 561044 562046 562049 562050 563052
      563054 563057 562060 563063 564066
 0.01 497662 496656 494651 491654 488658 486663 484666 483672
      484679 487681 491680 494676 495672 496668 497662
 0.01 330917 328915 326913 324913 322913 321915 321917 319920
      319922 321920 323921 324921 326919 328919 330917
 0.01 283800 281796 275795 268796 262794 258789 256788 256791
      259797 259803 261807 263807 267808 271808 274807 276804
      279803 281800 283800
 0.01 282854 280850 278848 276846 274846 272845 268845 265845
      263848 263850 265851 267853 269855 271857 273859 277859
      280856 282854
 0.25 519271 513270 508267 497261 491259 486258 475260 465259
      453258 442256 432256 427254 423254 418256 415260 411266
      412273 415277 420279 442281 447281 453282 457286 460290
      462298 464302 470305 476307 487309 488305 492304 498305
      505307
 0.25 465045 467037 466028 462017 458007 454998 452993 450987
      448975 443962 438953 432944 426937 423932 422926 419915
      414907 406901 396898 392895 391888 391880 390872 388858
      390845 389833 392821 394810 400800 402795 399793 394793
      388795 383803 377811 371817 362835 362842 362849 362859
      361865 356888 359898 362907 364913 364919 362924 357926
      337934 327937 322938 317940 304952 299960 297974 296982
      292993 293000 296004 300006 304005 313001 320997 328994
      335989 346983 355978 360976 365976 377975 383976 387978
      393984 395989 396996 395004 394009 393017 395022 397028
      397037 391063 386072 384076 386081 389084 395087 396091
      397098 399104 401109 406117 409118 412117 416115 424110
      433108 440103 447098 453099 456098 459097 460094 461084
      462075 462067 465045
 0.25 441652 440648 436648 430648 421651 416655 408667 403673
      397678 391683 386689 382695 379702 373716 374720 377721
      383723 391725 395728 394738 390744 386750 386755 388758
      395761 398762 402761 407755 411754 414756 417764 419767
      423770 427769 431766 435762 440755 443749 444739 443728
      441716 439707 437701 437695 438686 438676 439666 441652
 0.50 509291 508285 504281 499275 494273 489272 482274 478275
      476279 467280 469285 472288 477290 482291 490291 499292
      507293 509291
 0.50 454027 453017 450009 444996 440976 439973 435971 431972
      428969 428961 425954 421949 417943 412929 410922 408919
      406919 401914 395910 385901 383899 381902 379905 380910
      380918 377927 376930 373929 365926 362933 360935 356935
      350936 343939 339941 336940 327941 319942 313946 308950
      305957 305966 306974 306981 305986 302988 299990 297993
      297997 299998 304996 310992 317992 324989 328988 332985
      337981 345980 350974 355969 362968 368972 374971 381970
      385970 389972 395975 399977 401980 403987 404997 402006
      402017 402029 402024 404022 405023 406027 405031 402034
      403039 405057 424079 425084 427087 434086 441074 446070
      450068 450065 449056 450046 454027
 0.50 434662 434655 430652 423653 419657 417660 415670 417684
      419695 424705 428697 430687 432677 434664 434662
 0.50 432730 432723 430718 428714 424710 423711 421716 420721
      419726 420733 422736 426737 429735 432730 432730
 0.50 432097 431094 429092 428092 428091 427091 426091 425093
      426096 427098 429098 431098 432097
 0.50 415101 415099 416097 416095 415094 413094 412094 410095
      408096 407098 407100 407102 408103 409104 411104 413103
      415102 415101
 1.00 434023 434018 432016 429012 430006 432004 433999 432996
      429997 426000 424002 420002 418999 414998 412000 415004
      416015 420020 426023 431025 434023
 1.00 416982 415981 415980 414979 412978 410977 411980 412981
      412982 414983 415983 416982
 1.00 409970 410963 410956 408945 405936 400928 394921 391919
      388918 385920 384930 383936 384941 388951 389955 393959
      399963 405970 409970
 1.00 378961 378958 377958 375957 373957 372957 370958 369958
      370960 370961 369963 369965 370967 371967 372967 373966
      375965 376963 377963 378961
 1.00 363956 361949 358943 355941 351942 346946 336952 331953
      328952 323947 322945 319945 314948 310952 309957 310962
      312978 314981 316982 323981 328977 331971 336968 343967
      354960 360958 363956
 1.50 404956 404949 403945 401940 398936 397931 395927 391925
      388929 388936 389942 391946 394949 397952 400955 403957
      404956
 1.50 356949 355947 354948 352949 354950 355950 356949
 1.50 348956 348953 346950 342952 334956 326958 322958 319956
      316952 312954 313960 314964 313969 314973 315975 317976
      324971 330966 337962 343961 346958 348956
 2.00 343958 345956 344954 343954 342954 341954 339955 338956
      338958 339959 341959 343958 343958

$$





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