Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 160633
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
132 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 16/1200 UTC THRU DEC 17/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...WEST...

AN ASSORTMENT OF PAC DYNAMICS WILL STREAM INTO CA OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS AND CONTINUE THE WET WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE... PLUS SPREAD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THREE SPECIFIC IMPULSES ARRIVING WITH THE LATTER
BEING THE STRONGEST. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL CA WILL
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.
THE SECOND WILL STREAK THROUGH SRN CA INTO THE DESERT SW. THE
FINAL SYSTEM WILL BE AN INTENSIFYING PAC SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL REACH THE MAJORITY OF THE CA COASTLINE LATE TUES INTO WED
MORNING. EACH SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE
FLOW AND PAC MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH A SURGE OF PWS AOA 1 INCH.
THIS WILL DEFINITELY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THE COASTAL
RANGES AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CA WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IN
THE SIERRA RANGE. HOWEVER... THIS MOISTURE WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
ADVANCING MUCH DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT BASIN... SO EXPECT
LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS FROM AZ/NV NORTHEASTWARD. WPC GENERALLY
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF FOR QPF
AMOUNTS.


...EAST...

THE VERY WELL DEFINED H5 LOW NOW IN VICINITY OF ERN IA/NWRN IL
WILL ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM BUT SHEAR-OUT INTO THE NORTHEAST... WHILE
A DIGGING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. THE WELL-DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION BAND WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL MDT QPF AMOUNTS AND
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. MEANWHILE FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST... A VERY NARROW AND MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE/PWS
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL YIELD SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION FROM THE ERN OH VALLEY/MID-ATL
REGION AND SOUTHEAST. BY THE TAIL END OF THE FCST PERIOD... A
TRIPLE POINT LOW COULD FORM ALONG THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE
WHICH COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS/QPF ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/NEW
ENGLAND. WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF WITH SOME OF THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE FOR QPF.

MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 520271 522261 522255 520252 512239 507230 502223 503197
      502189 500180 495174 492170 490172 485176 481180 467187
      463191 459197 455202 451210 449214 448221 451224 455224
      457226 457229 455235 451236 448234 440231 439234 442236
      441239 436243 433238 422232 423227 425226 428228 432227
      434227 432224 434220 438219 441220 444218 443215 439214
      435206 432202 429201 426198 421200 417200 413199 409201
      406198 403196 406192 411188 414180 418172 420169 424167
      429162 435160 440164 444171 447177 450180 453181 458183
      461182 464178 463173 458172 454168 452162 451155 449152
      450148 460138 466132 469128 471128 472118 472115 469115
      463119 461120 459116 460110 463107 467107 468105 466104
      462104 458105 454104 452099 446097 443096 439096 425091
      422082 422076 421077 419081 419087 422093 425095 424098
      421097 417095 416090 411075 408070 404066 397067 389064
      386073 389080 389087 391091 390097 385103 380108 376111
      372113 366108 363105 362102 360094 365088 366084 368082
      375082 379080 379076 375071 369070 365071 360070 358066
      356070 350077 349083 348088 348091 350094 352099 352105
      358110 357115 353116 347112 345107 339104 334106 329109
      327112 327116 329118 332116 334117 335120 334126 331129
      328131 325126 324121 321119 319121 321125 322128 319134
      322138 319142 320148 316155 315155 308155 307160 307163
      308167 311170 313172 313176 312186 312191 314194 318199
      323205 327207 327212 329217 331220 336227 358244 364251
      371255 378260 381263 386264 401269 418273 452275 464274
      471275 478277 487281 497285 503289 508292 511290 519275
 0.01 496218 495215 492212 490215 488217 486220 485222 483224
      480226 481231 485230 486228 487225 491224 493224 494220
      496218
 0.01 506844 496783 495775 493772 485764 477755 475749 473740
      470730 463721 460715 459710 461706 464701 465698 463695
      465689 464686 460686 455689 449691 446691 444688 444682
      444676 441674 439679 433679 429678 406674 396673 384672
      379672 375675 366682 359688 353697 347707 346714 343719
      337727 333732 331738 323758 319767 317778 309802 306812
      306815 305818 306822 310825 307831 306842 305844 308849
      306854 299854 295859 293864 290870 292873 296874 299870
      301867 304867 306869 310867 313863 320862 324858 329850
      338845 341841 344834 346829 347822 350817 354813 357809
      363806 365804 366805 366809 365812 360821 357831 355835
      350839 347844 349846 359841 361839 364838 366842 365845
      361850 364852 368850 374849 379852 385854 388856 389860
      387863 393870 396876 397885 397890 399892 401897 407899
      412901 420907 429909 440914 443916 449916 453914 460913
      463913 467915 469920 472922 475922 481917 486914 491914
      496900 503878 503868 505860 505850 506844
 0.01 433217 432214 430212 428212 427213 428215 430216 431219
      433217
 0.01 413122 401113 398110 398105 398102 397099 393103 389109
      385118 382125 377132 371138 368140 368144 369146 366148
      363152 365156 370158 378162 386160 389157 390154 388151
      387148 388144 391144 394146 398145 401142 404141 406135
      410127 413122
 0.01 404198 402195 401196 399197 400198 402198 404198
 0.01 295830 295826 294824 292824 290826 289829 288832 287835
      286837 286840 288839 292837 293835 294832 295830
 0.01 282005 279998 279993 277990 273988 272987 273983 273980
      272978 266972 264964 263952 257949 254950 252955 250962
      248965 248971 247976 245980 238983 235985 234989 239995
      246999 256009 262014 265015 269013 270010 271007 274008
      276009 280008 282005
 0.25 518273 517264 515256 512250 508245 503239 500240 497241
      485240 474244 463251 462253 464256 468260 476263 482268
      493276 499280 506283 511282 516278 518273
 0.25 497853 498845 496837 494822 490807 487802 482801 470801
      465801 462800 460797 459788 462784 467782 472781 475777
      473770 470765 466761 461759 449758 444759 440757 437753
      434748 434740 436734 438729 441726 440719 439714 436709
      436702 435698 433696 428696 418692 410690 399689 389685
      384684 378685 370691 362697 359701 356707 356715 354721
      342738 336747 332757 335759 339757 347750 365736 383722
      391715 394711 395707 398704 404703 408704 412708 416710
      420710 421714 420717 417718 411716 406720 403725 401732
      399737 397742 399747 403750 408751 411748 417746 420743
      427742 429745 429751 428755 426756 422761 421768 423771
      425774 424779 418782 413781 407780 403781 399785 392790
      384797 382802 380808 380811 382812 389813 396817 399812
      404809 409811 414814 417816 423816 426814 429809 430797
      433790 436786 440789 440796 440810 440819 441828 441856
      442860 445865 451873 463894 467899 471900 476898 479894
      483884 488872 492861 497853
 0.25 438263 440258 438256 440254 438252 433251 427249 418245
      415243 413240 412236 415231 416227 417220 416217 412215
      408214 405211 402207 399205 384197 371187 364183 354181
      351182 349183 347180 344172 343167 338166 329164 324165
      321167 320174 318178 320181 326187 330193 331198 334202
      339206 343215 354227 358232 364239 370243 378249 385252
      394256 401259 412262 419263 428262 438263
 0.25 374211 375209 374207 372205 370204 369204 367204 366205
      366206 367207 368210 369212 371212 373212 374211
 0.25 374790 373788 373787 372788 371789 370790 370793 371795
      372795 373792 374790
 0.25 355788 355786 355784 354783 352784 351786 350787 349788
      348789 348790 347791 347794 348796 349796 350795 352793
      353791 354790 355789 355788
 0.25 350769 350767 349766 347765 345766 344768 344770 344772
      346773 348773 349771 350769
 0.25 338141 337140 335139 334141 335143 337142 338141
 0.25 262996 260992 257987 256980 253978 251984 246988 240989
      242993 248994 251994 256998 260001 262996
 0.50 516275 516268 514263 512257 509254 501258 497255 494250
      490246 488245 485246 481247 477250 479257 482260 490268
      499275 506279 511279 515275 516275
 0.50 486834 485826 482820 476819 472823 469828 468836 468843
      466851 463856 458860 456862 455864 457869 464878 466881
      468880 469871 472866 476862 479857 482850 484844 486836
      486834
 0.50 453767 452766 450766 448766 447768 446771 447771 449771
      450770 450769 452768 453767
 0.50 419257 418252 414248 411245 408241 407236 409232 414226
      415221 412219 408219 404215 402211 398208 389204 375193
      367188 361188 362193 364196 369199 378203 384209 388212
      390217 383218 375221 369217 365214 362211 360207 355204
      348199 346195 345189 343186 342179 340171 340168 338167
      334169 330168 327170 327173 329174 333176 338186 340189
      340197 344203 347211 352217 361224 367230 370232 373236
      376239 380242 388248 407256 415258 419257
 0.50 435775 433774 432774 431776 432778 434777 435775 435775
 0.50 397793 396793 395793 393793 392794 391794 390795 388797
      386798 386799 385801 384802 384804 385806 387805 389805
      390803 392802 393801 394800 395798 396796 397794 397793
 0.50 387698 385694 381693 374694 367697 362702 360705 362710
      366712 360718 356723 352731 350738 352741 356739 361735
      372724 378721 384716 385712 383708 380707 376707 369709
      372705 387698
 0.50 328181 327179 327178 325177 323177 322178 321180 323181
      324182 326182 328181
 1.00 409227 409225 407224 406224 405225 404226 405227 406228
      408228 409227
 1.00 403245 402240 400234 399230 396228 392228 387227 382227
      379229 380234 383237 387239 390242 395244 399246 402246
      403245
 1.00 362218 361216 360215 360214 358213 357212 355211 354213
      354214 356215 358216 358217 359218 361219 362218
 1.50 398241 398238 396236 395235 393234 391233 390232 388232
      386231 384232 384233 385235 386235 387237 389238 390239
      392240 394240 395241 397241 398241
 2.00 393237 392237 391236 389236 391237 392237 393237

$$





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