Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 161823
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 17/0000 UTC THRU SEP 18/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1
~~~~~

SOUTHWEST
~~~~~~~~~
AN INCREASING HEAVY RAIN/POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED
THIS PERIOD AS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWS)
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ODILE. PW ANOMALIES OF 2-4.5
SIGMAS ABOVE THE MEAN -- NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR MID-SEPTEMBER --
ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
CA, FAR SOUTHERN NV, MUCH OF AZ, SOUTHERN NM, AND WESTERNMOST TX.
AROUND 25+ KTS OF 700 HPA INFLOW (PER RECENT GUIDANCE) COULD
ORGANIZE CONVECTION NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  THE EXPECTED EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
ANY CONVECTION WHICH BUILDS WITHIN TOPOGRAPHY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ
AND THE MOGOLLON RIM TO MIGRATE OUTWARD TOWARDS VALLEY/DESERT
FLOORS TODAY.  DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY WHICH SHOULD CONFINE THE THREAT MORE TO THE MOGOLLON RIM
AND SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF AZ, POTENTIALLY LEAVING THE
DESERT/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY HIGH AND DRY.

THE BIG QUESTION -- OTHER THAN TRACK -- CONCERNS WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL MAXIMIZE EACH DAY.  SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST PLACES JUST
OUTSIDE ODILE`S OUTFLOW JET/CLOUD SHIELD NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND THE MOGOLLON RIM COULD BE THE MOST UNSTABLE AND
THAT RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHERN NM/WESTERNMOST TX COULD
BE MORE STRATIFORM OR MORE OF A LONGER DURATION FLOOD CONCERN
RATHER THAN A FLASH FLOOD CONCERN THROUGH TOMORROW.  CORE RAINFALL
FROM SOME PORTION OF ODILE`S CIRCULATION (MOST LIKELY AT 700 HPA
AND 500 HPA) IS EXPECTED TO NEAR THE AZ BORDER LATE TOMORROW.
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 4" ARE POSSIBLE HERE WHERE A HEAVY RAIN BAND
AND/OR CONVECTIVE CELLS MERGE AND/OR TRAIN, WHICH WOULD APPROACH
ANNUAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION.  THE HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD RIVAL THAT OF
MONDAY SEPTEMBER 8 WHICH OCCURRED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF NORBERT,
THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER A LONGER TIME INTERVAL.  WENT
SOMEWHAT BELOW 12Z WPC QPF CONTINUITY IN THIS REGION PER
COORDINATION WITH THE TUCSON AZ FORECAST OFFICE, WHICH WAS
WELL-SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GEFS- AND CLIMATOLOGY-BASED QPF
REFORECAST.


MISSOURI
~~~~~~~~
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO A STRENGTHENING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN, WITH INCREASING BUT NARROW INFLOW AT 850
HPA INTO THE REGION TOWARDS 25-30 KTS.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD PER CORFIDI VECTORS, NEAR WHERE THE
1000-500 HPA THICKNESS IS MOST DIFFLUENT.  THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
CAP, REPRESENTED BY 700 HPA TEMPERATURES >12C, IS SOMEWHAT REMOVED
FROM THIS REGION, LYING ACROSS WESTERN KS.  STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELD IN THIS REGION ARE LIMITED,
LURKING NEAR ONE SIGMA ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH PW
VALUES IN THE 1.50-1.75" RANGE.  AS THE SYSTEM CAUSING THIS REGIME
IS FAST-MOVING, BELIEVE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED.  STAYED THE COURSE WITH 12Z WPC QPF CONTINUITY, WHICH
REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.  LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3"
ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS MANAGE TO MERGE AND/OR TRAIN.


CENTRAL GULF COAST/COASTAL SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.  AN
AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES -- 1.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN OR NEAR 2" -- WILL EXIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST.  WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT IN A REGION OF ENHANCED UVVS FROM FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THIS AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  ISOLATED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN THE PAST TWO DAYS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC
AND GA---WITH THIS POTENTIAL AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL GA INTO
FAR NORTHEAST FL.  ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-5"+ REMAIN POSSIBLE.  ON
WEDNESDAY, THE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTHWARD INTO FL WHICH SHOULD
BECOME THE FOCUS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.  LOCAL AMOUNTS IN
FL ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 3-4" RANGE ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS MERGE
AND/OR TRAIN.


ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 18/00Z
 0.01 525722 524711 523706 521702 515698 510697 503699 499700
      496704 486719 483725 482728 479729 476719 473712 471708
      468709 465717 460736 457751 455771 454774 450777 448780
      448783 452792 455806 456827 457832 459837 460841 460846
      461858 462872 463883 465888 468893 482917 485927 489935
      497952 499958 501961 505961 509969 511977 518994 521002
      526011 530016 533017 534014 534002 532992 530982 528970
      523949 518934 511919 507898 502875 493838 492824 490813
      488802 488790 490773 493754 496745 499737 503734 508733
      517731 523728 525722
 0.01 511173 509166 508159 508150 506147 503146 498143 492140
      489139 488142 490145 494149 497154 502158 502168 505173
      511173
 0.01 487220 488215 488210 486209 483208 481208 478209 476209
      472211 470213 469215 470218 473219 475218 478219 481220
      483222 484221 487220
 0.01 472272 473263 473255 471248 464244 441243 435241 431236
      421228 408223 400221 393222 389224 385228 380233 377240
      375255 374257 376260 380264 391271 405277 411278 417278
      421280 425286 434294 442297 445298 448297 453297 458295
      462291 466285 472272
 0.01 456140 454133 456129 456123 457118 456114 457111 458105
      454099 452095 448094 445093 442091 436093 426091 426094
      428097 431100 431103 430106 425109 425110 430111 433112
      435115 440115 442116 444118 446121 444127 441134 439143
      439147 442149 446147 454145 456140
 0.01 409112 410103 409096 405098 404104 402108 398106 396108
      395112 392114 388116 392114 395115 398113 405114 407114
      409112
 0.01 407031 403028 400023 397016 397009 394004 391004 388006
      385008 385013 386015 388020 391025 395030 400035 403033
      407031
 0.01 407956 407949 405944 398935 395931 393925 391919 390911
      387899 385893 381886 379887 376891 370902 364911 360914
      356919 343936 339938 337939 337943 339947 339952 341958
      344961 349963 355961 363956 370954 375958 380965 382968
      386968 391966 397966 402966 405961 407956
 0.01 378698 366694 363693 359693 353690 332694 328695 325697
      318702 302714 297721 292723 289727 285736 280744 271758
      263771 259786 255794 250801 245809 243816 248835 250846
      252859 254884 255891 257896 260909 261912 261918 260926
      259935 259945 255951 250957 244964 239971 242978 244982
      246984 257987 261989 263990 264993 265003 266007 262010
      259013 261017 266019 270020 274021 280025 283026 287027
      291026 294023 291019 290015 291011 295008 300009 307014
      310017 310021 304029 302034 301042 302046 302051 297054
      291053 269050 260049 252053 247053 244055 242064 245070
      248075 250079 253081 258086 262089 261093 260105 262113
      265121 263132 266140 272149 278155 289159 295161 300160
      304160 308163 312163 315162 318160 322162 325163 326168
      329171 334173 338175 341179 345180 346176 349167 351162
      356161 362163 367166 371165 373163 371158 372153 371149
      367146 365141 363137 362131 363127 365122 363118 356114
      358106 365108 368106 367104 362099 368093 363086 363078
      368076 370078 373082 377092 377099 380096 382083 383079
      381075 380069 377065 372050 368049 363047 360046 357048
      351051 347052 343050 343044 345041 347037 345033 339027
      337023 338018 338010 337004 337988 334965 332953 329945
      325936 320928 315922 311917 306911 303903 302891 302884
      303877 306883 309886 313886 315883 316877 316871 315865
      313861 312853 310841 309828 310824 313822 319821 322820
      328818 333816 336819 342826 345829 352829 356822 361814
      367809 371806 376805 378803 379798 380793 378793 371788
      366785 365780 363773 364768 367758 369746 370742 370735
      371722 378698
 0.01 347160 347158 346157 344156 343155 342155 341153 339153
      338154 337156 338159 338160 340161 341161 342163 343162
      344161 345162 347160
 0.25 494899 488871 484841 482826 481814 477801 475785 472772
      470766 467769 464781 463788 464797 464804 463810 463817
      464824 468834 473845 475850 477856 478864 480872 485882
      487897 490903 493901 494899
 0.25 445267 444262 439261 432259 425258 421257 416257 413262
      416266 423270 430272 436272 441271 445267
 0.25 397952 396946 393940 387929 385923 384918 382916 377915
      371917 364926 359928 356934 354940 353942 354946 360946
      366945 371945 375949 380953 386956 392955 397952
 0.25 366157 364155 363155 362157 362158 364159 366157
 0.25 352715 351710 349708 344704 340702 337703 330705 322710
      316714 309720 302727 295738 286751 279763 274772 271781
      266794 264797 261800 255804 253808 255815 253825 254830
      257832 259835 259840 258857 259866 262874 265883 269891
      272899 273913 276948 272957 268964 266968 267972 268976
      271980 310974 313967 314964 314959 313949 311941 306935
      303933 301929 295922 293912 293894 294882 294874 294850
      294839 294826 295822 297820 303817 315807 328796 331794
      335792 341797 344799 348798 353795 354790 354783 352781
      351775 354767 355762 353758 347751 346746 345739 352715
 0.25 356122 349107 347096 346083 345073 340066 340054 337049
      333045 330043 325043 321044 317046 308061 300062 289061
      284061 280063 276065 271064 264061 258060 254061 252063
      253065 255069 262076 269079 280080 290083 292088 291092
      289093 283096 281099 281103 278107 277112 278118 276123
      273126 273131 274142 276146 279149 283153 288154 297156
      307157 314153 321145 326139 333135 337133 341132 348134
      353133 353128 356122
 0.50 390949 389943 387936 384929 382925 377921 371923 369929
      367936 372938 376943 379947 384950 387951 390949
 0.50 346719 346714 343710 337711 331713 326715 321718 315720
      312723 306730 301738 296747 289757 284764 280773 278783
      274787 272793 266799 259805 257810 259816 260823 264827
      262849 262857 263865 264870 268876 274882 278883 283883
      285873 289860 290816 299812 303809 305805 312798 316793
      316789 314786 308782 304779 305774 308763 313753 316750
      321749 329752 332754 336753 337747 336740 339733 344727
      346722 346719
 0.50 354120 349113 346106 342085 342079 342075 336069 334065
      334063 336059 335054 329051 324050 321051 318054 317059
      319063 319067 316069 313069 303066 292066 288067 287070
      285072 282072 274070 265067 262068 263072 266075 270076
      280077 289079 293082 296086 297089 296093 291098 287100
      286104 281113 279123 276130 277139 278144 281148 288151
      298154 303154 308154 312152 315148 322133 328126 331123
      335122 342124 347127 349123 354120
 0.50 307952 305945 302941 298939 294941 290945 288952 285957
      281962 283964 290964 296963 302962 305958 307952
 1.00 377931 376929 375929 373928 373929 373930 374931 375934
      377931
 1.00 328057 327056 326057 327057 328057 346114 346113 345112
344111
      342110 342111 342112 343114 344114 345114 346114
 1.00 340104 341100 341096 339089 338082 337078 335075 330073
      325076 322082 322087 318084 314079 309075 303074 298076
      296079 297082 302087 308090 309092 309095 305098 299100
      294105 287113 284119 281126 279131 279138 282144 287148
      300152 308151 313146 315132 319126 321119 322113 321106
      323100 328096 331098 332104 336106 340104
 1.00 299798 299792 298788 296783 293782 291784 289789 287791
      286796 286802 289804 293805 296804 299800 299798
 1.00 296765 295763 295762 295763 294764 293765 292767 292769
      292771 293772 294771 295769 295767 296765 296765
 1.00 278805 278803 276801 275801 274801 272801 270801 269802
      268802 267803 266804 265805 264806 265808 265809 267810
      269810 271809 273809 274808 276807 278805 278805
 1.00 279834 278829 275826 272826 271832 270837 269841 269847
      270853 273857 275853 276848 277843 278838 279834
 1.50 336091 337089 336086 336084 336083 335082 334080 334079
      332079 330078 330079 329080 328081 328083 330086 332088
      333089 334090 335091 336091
 1.50 318118 318112 317108 315106 311104 304105 295110 291112
      287117 282128 280131 280135 282141 285145 292148 303150
      308148 311143 312138 313131 316125 318118
 1.50 320093 319091 318091 317089 316090 316092 316094 317095
      318095 320095 320094 320093
 2.00 316122 316116 315112 309109 304111 294113 290116 287120
      282130 281134 282139 285143 290146 301149 305148 309145
      311135 315123 316122
 3.00 312126 313121 312118 305117 298115 294120 291121 289125
      285132 283135 284139 286142 289144 298147 305146 308142
      308138 309132 312126
 4.00 310126 307121 301119 297122 295125 296130 297137 290136
      287136 286138 289142 296145 304145 306140 308132 310126
 5.00 305134 306132 306130 306127 304126 302125 301124 299124
      300127 301129 302130 303131 303133 304134 305134 305134

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