Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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740
FXUS04 KWBC 021839
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
139 PM EST TUE FEB 02 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 03/0000 UTC THRU FEB 04/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES

THE STRONG LOW OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION WILL BEGIN ITS
WEAKENING PHASE THIS PERIOD AS THE ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO ELONGATE AND OPEN UP INTO AN INCREASINGLY
PROGRESSIVE WAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER
LAKES.  THE WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY 1
PERIOD..ALTHOUGH ALSO DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY WITH
TIME...SUPPORTING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TOTALS FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES.  HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY  OVER THE
U.P. OF MI INTO NORTHERN WI WHERE NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD
FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

TO THE EAST OF THE COMMA HEAD FEATURE---MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES--2 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN--- WILL STRETCH
FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COASTAL REGION---NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING FROM THE MS VALLEY
TO A POSITION ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS LIKELY IN THIS
HIGH PW AXIS---WITH MODELS SHOWING BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE AXIS.
THE 1200 UTC BASED GUIDANCE DID SHOW A FARTHER WESTWARD INITIATION
OF THE CONVECTION FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY---LOWER TN VALLEY INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY SO
IN THE HI RES ARW AND NMMB FROM THEIR 0000 UTC RUNS.  THE FARTHER
WESTWARD TREND WAS FOLLOWED FOR THE NEW DAY 1 QPF GIVEN THE MODELS
CONVERGING ON THIS SOLUTION.  HEAVIEST TOTALS IN THE HIGH PW AXIS
LIKELY FROM THE OH VALLEY---TN VALLEY---FAR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND FL PANHANDLE WHERE CONVECTION WILL
MAXIMIZE IN THE AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY.  THE PREVIOUS
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK THROUGH 1200 UTC WEDNESDAY
FEB 3 WAS EXPANDED WESTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FARTHER WESTWARD
CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA

THE NEXT AREA OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY 1 TIME PERIOD.  STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW/INCREASING PW VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE DAY
1 FROM THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MODERATE TOTALS IN THE .25-.50"+ RANGE
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 517278 519268 520257 517243 511228 507222 504215 501210
      497205 492201 486198 475200 472200 469203 466203 461202
      457196 457187 460183 462181 463177 458175 455175 453172
      451170 449171 450180 446181 443181 439185 438193 439200
      439204 438208 435210 431209 426204 421200 410202 408206
      406207 400206 396205 392202 387201 385201 385205 391211
      394215 396217 400219 402221 402224 397225 385218 380222
      377230 370240 364251 358266 355268 355272 358278 365280
      371280 381278 388276 395280 398282 400284 407287 414289
      420290 434294 449297 456299 462300 475302 485302 498302
      504301 509297 511294 513288 517278
 0.01 517709 516697 514687 509671 504657 502655 501649 498645
      494640 490636 482628 478629 474629 466631 459634 456637
      453639 449643 444647 435657 429667 424672 421677 413689
      409693 406700 390723 374741 365748 356755 344763 333772
      319793 305813 292831 276851 268862 265867 262872 260879
      257883 256887 256891 255899 251910 248922 248926 249929
      251935 257936 261935 263934 267928 271928 272932 275940
      281938 291933 304927 323917 336911 350904 372894 395883
      402881 409881 415881 419881 420884 417892 415900 417907
      417911 416913 407922 402927 400929 399933 398942 397950
      397971 398977 400984 403991 406996 408998 411998 418999
      423997 428994 433989 440985 444980 447974 461951 468940
      472927 474921 478913 482907 487901 490896 493889 498873
      500859 503841 505833 505826 507808 509788 510778 511772
      515754 517745 517735 517709
 0.01 515046 516035 514027 508011 506005 505996 504985 504980
      502977 498972 491971 489973 487977 487987 487997 488006
      492023 495029 498036 501043 505050 510051 515046 515046
 0.01 499152 496148 493142 489138 487136 484135 483132 479131
      478129 475128 472133 475137 477140 480141 482143 485144
      489149 492153 498154 499152
 0.01 498064 496056 493052 489048 483047 480051 477051 476054
      476056 480058 482065 484070 488068 491066 494066 498064
 0.01 465043 465040 466038 465038 464035 462035 460035 460037
      460040 460042 462043 463043 465043 465043
 0.01 453100 451097 449097 446096 446093 450092 446090 443089
      440090 436089 433090 431089 429092 434095 440091 446096
      444098 442098 439098 434102 431104 427105 424106 423108
      423113 421117 426122 429123 432121 436115 439113 443113
      448114 449112 447109 446104 448101 451102 453100
 0.01 455066 452063 447058 444059 437059 435059 435064 437069
      441073 445077 449080 453080 450074 449071 450066 453068
      455066
 0.01 445043 445041 445040 444038 443037 441038 440038 439040
      440041 441043 443043 445043 445043
 0.01 428187 429185 427184 425186 425189 427187 428187 428187
 0.01 438050 437047 436045 432044 429042 427044 429046 429049
      430054 432056 434054 436052 438050
 0.01 413073 413068 414063 407058 404056 400057 394057 389058
      382053 374048 370049 365048 360047 356044 351043 347044
      348049 351053 354057 358060 365058 364062 360064 361068
      367069 371072 372077 375081 379083 382084 384087 387087
      386084 385082 387079 392080 401078 407074 413073
 0.01 341032 340028 339023 338019 334019 332023 332029 332034
      333040 331043 333045 335041 337036 341032 341032
 0.25 514264 515258 515253 512246 503231 500225 496219 492219
      489221 486223 483222 476219 469216 460214 454217 447219
      441218 438219 434222 432227 433231 432235 426236 421235
      416233 408232 402233 396236 391243 392249 393252 398257
      405261 421268 428273 432278 435280 440281 447283 462285
      476286 491288 497288 505287 509282 511275 512269 514264
 0.25 501713 499697 496683 492672 487663 485659 481656 477655
      473657 462662 453669 446675 440683 428697 416716 405731
      393747 382760 375767 367773 351786 337797 324809 309822
      301829 295836 290842 285850 278867 269888 266897 266904
      269909 282921 285924 289925 298923 315915 334906 351898
      367889 375885 385880 394876 404873 413869 417866 423867
      431867 438873 441877 445880 448891 449909 451914 455917
      459919 464918 468915 470910 474901 477892 480878 483866
      486853 490843 492831 494817 494805 496791 498778 501768
      502753 501736 501713
 0.25 435914 434908 432908 430909 428913 426916 422920 421924
      419928 421931 424928 426926 429923 433919 431916 435914
 0.50 507277 504265 498254 493244 489240 485240 483241 478232
      471231 467234 462234 457233 446234 442238 440244 443246
      446247 451247 462247 468249 473254 474259 470261 461263
      451265 449267 448271 448276 450277 460279 471278 476278
      481279 488280 494283 498284 502283 506280 507277
 0.50 489716 489707 488700 484686 484680 482673 480670 476668
      471670 468674 459679 449685 441692 435699 429707 419723
      413732 405741 394754 388762 381769 369782 362789 353795
      336804 322817 309828 302834 295841 289848 286852 284858
      283869 280880 279884 277887 274891 273896 275902 279906
      284912 286916 288917 293917 300918 306916 324909 339901
      357892 366887 374882 391873 399868 405863 422850 429845
      432841 434835 437825 441822 446821 453824 455825 456828
      455835 453846 456859 456869 457877 461889 463904 465908
      468905 475885 476878 475870 474855 472841 469823 468812
      468804 470798 474791 477780 480769 486760 487754 488749
      488732 489716
 0.50 435247 435244 433242 430240 424238 419237 416237 412240
      412246 416249 419252 424254 427253 431252 434248 435247
 1.00 503275 503270 500265 498260 496257 493254 491249 486248
      484253 485258 487264 488267 491272 494275 498276 502276
      503275
 1.00 466732 465728 463727 460731 453745 444739 438737 434742
      428755 425760 424765 421763 415764 412768 408774 406778
      408780 412785 416785 417783 422769 424765 428767 431771
      434778 435782 434785 426813 427816 430815 433811 438805
      440798 442791 445788 449781 449771 452765 455761 458754
      457749 460746 464740 466732
 1.00 442721 442718 442716 441714 439715 438716 437717 436718
      435720 435721 434722 433724 433725 433728 434728 435728
      437727 438726 439726 440724 440723 442721 442721
 1.00 410836 409831 407830 403831 401827 398823 393823 382828
      377831 371834 362838 360832 360827 366814 368809 368804
      366802 362803 356806 348813 342816 337820 331828 330831
      331832 334830 338827 341827 340830 339835 336841 335843
      335847 330852 326851 324849 326842 329837 329834 322834
      316833 310834 304837 299841 295845 292849 291856 291864
      291874 293877 292880 287885 284889 284894 289893 293891
      298887 303886 304890 306891 309898 308902 304907 302910
      300912 301915 313911 324906 335902 345897 366885 384873
      393866 401855 404850 404845 410836
 1.50 440752 440750 440748 439747 438746 437745 437746 436747
      434748 434749 433751 433754 434756 435758 436760 437760
      437763 438764 439762 440760 440757 440755 440753 440752
 1.50 393842 391836 387836 385838 380841 374844 363847 357849
      353848 352846 356835 356827 359821 361816 361813 358814
      352817 349821 346827 344833 343839 343845 344849 343851
      339854 329861 321868 317872 314879 324881 332879 336876
      357865 368860 380856 388850 392847 393842
 1.50 380866 378866 377864 376864 377866 378866 380866 380866
 1.50 377868 377867 375868 373868 372869 373869 375869 377869
      377868
 1.50 372871 366869 364872 359872 357874 354875 349877 345881
      343882 343885 347885 349883 352883 354881 359878 365875
      370872 372871
 1.50 342886 340884 341886 342886 342886
 1.50 314845 314840 310839 306840 302842 299844 296849 295853
      297857 300857 304855 308852 312850 314847 314845
 2.00 355826 355821 352821 351823 349825 347829 346831 346833
      345838 346841 349840 352838 353835 353833 354828 355826
 3.00 351831 352828 351828 350829 349830 349831 348833 350834
      350833 351831 351831

$$





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