Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
000
FXUS04 KWBC 141800
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1259 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 15/0000 UTC THRU JAN 16/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...

...SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN/CNTL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

A DEEP UPPER LOW INITIALLY NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WILL
TRACK EWD ALONG THE NRN MEXICAN BORDER TOWARD W TX/SRN NM REGION
BY LATE SUN WHILE GRADUALLY ACQUIRING A NEG TILT.  THE ASSOCD
HEIGHT FALLS AND STG UPR DIFFLUENCE/COOLING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN RAIN AND EMBDD TSTMS ACRS MUCH OF ERN AZ AND
ESPECIALLY SRN/ERN NM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.  SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE TROF..BUT CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
BETTER CONSENSUS REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE..THOUGH THE 00Z EC WAS
SLIGHTLY STGR THAN THE GFS/NAM WITH THE UPR LOW ACRS NM BY THE END
OF THE PD.  OVERALL HOWEVER...THERE IS STG CONSENSUS TOWARD
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVIER RAINS ACRS SW INTO ERN NM GIVEN THE STG
DIFFLUENT LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE ASSOCD UPR JET.  CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING..ESPECIALLY WITH CNVTN AND SPREAD IN QPF MAXIMA SUPPORTS
TAKING MORE OF ENSEMBLE APCH THERE.

FARTHER TO THE EAST...BACKING MID/UPR FLOW HAS ALREADY STARTED
WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING PROCESS OF SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS ACRS THE
SRN PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND NWD INTO KS/MO
TONIGHT WITH THE LIFTING OF THE NRN STREAM RT ENTRANCE REGION JET
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.  SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
WAS ALREADY NOTED ACRS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION BY MIDDAY SAT
AND THIS INITIAL SURGE OF WAA LIFT SHOULD TRANSLATE ENEWD WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL JET TOWARD MRNG..BUT PICK UP AGAIN ACRS ERN
NM/WRN TX/WRN OK/SW KS ON SUN AS STGR HEIGHT FALLS AND DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TRANSLATES EWD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SFC LOW
PRES DVLPS ACRS WCNTL TX.  THE COMBINATION OF STG HEIGHT
FALLS/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS DEEPENING MSTR ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS WITH PWS OF OVER 1 INCH EXPANDING NWD INTO WRN OK BY
SUN...SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MDT TO LOCALLY BANDS OF HEAVY
RAINS/TSTMS WITH SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMS STILL LIKELY IN THE
SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN HI PLAINS
AND INTO CNTL PLAINS...SEE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS. BY LATE
SUN..SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPR TROF PUSHING INTO W TX TO LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED
BAND OF CONVECTION THAT SHOULD INTENSIFY EWD INTO THE DEEPENING
MSTR AXIS TO THE EAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z NAM HI RES AND
WRF/ARW.  WHILE MODEL MASS FIELDS WERE IN GENLY FAIR AGREEMENT
HERE...LARGE RUN TO RUN MODEL QPF DETAILS STILL EXIST WHICH WERE
DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE.  OVERALL...THE EC APPEARED TO BE A NRN
OUTLIER WITH THE HEAVIER NRN EDGE OF PCPN BAND..BUT WAS WITHIN
GENL CONSENSUS FARTHER SOUTH ACRS AZ/NM AND SRN PLAINS WITH THE
HEAVIER QPF AXIS.  A BLEND OF THE EC WAS USED FARTHER SOUTH..ALONG
WITH CONTINUITY AND THE IN HOUSE BIAS CORRECTION ENSEMBLE/SSEO
MEANS.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 16/00Z
 0.01 541202 541197 538194 536190 533188 529182 525176 521175
      518177 517181 516187 519196 521205 524213 526220 530228
      534228 535224
 0.01 520274 522261 521257 519256 515255 514252 511246 508243
      506252 507261 508267 511274 513279 509282 507279 506277
      506273 504270 501265 499261 496267 494271 492271 490273
      491275 494281 498286 503290 509292 513290 514288
 0.01 485681 484678 481675 478675 476678 472684 469693 466699
      460699 454703 449711 444727 443734 442743 445745 447743
      451736 453727 457721 461719 465718 472715 477710 479705
      480701 484684 485681
 0.01 433771 433768 433766 433764 432763 432764 431766 430766
      431769 431771 433771 433771
 0.01 413255 411252 407248 403244 397241 389236 379231 370232
      365233 362236 360238 360242 362244 365247 367250 370250
      376251 381251 393254 397257 403260 407260 410259 412257
      413255
 0.01 414720 412706 410694 401680 396674 394673 389674 382676
      378677 376680 371685 368691 364702 360710 355715 349721
      336733 329739 326745 322754 319761 316768 317776 321778
      325777 328775 332768 337763 350751 358746 364745 365746
      365750 367759 369762 371768 376773 383776 388784 385791
      377803 371807 365811 359817 353826 349832 349838 351843
      353846 354852 356863 357873 356881 358894 355903 353912
      353924 355933 355938 353941 351949 348951 344951 339952
      336954 328958 324960 319960 315962 309961 303958 300948
      292947 287947 283949 277954 274962 273976 272978 271983
      271994 273999 276005 275021 279027 280033 282037 286039
      287044 290052 293055 293060 291064 286065 275064 267062
      259059 249058 245058 243060 239065 239070 241073 245074
      244078 249085 257089 259093 259096 263103 276115 283120
      288125 289129 290132 288135 282138 282144 283147 288152
      293157 301159 307158 309158 310154 308145 310139 312135
      316132 320132 327127 335126 340127 344129 348136 357139
      360137 362130 369129 370124 374123 378121 380118 388103
      391098 393096 393090 393084 391080 393069 396062 397056
      396052 397040 403035 409029 413019 417010 420001 421976
      421965 419955 415941 413936 412931 408920 406911 403897
      401886 397880 394873 393867 391863 390858 389855 388852
      384845 379838 378827 383821 385819 389818 391812 393808
      396805 405790 410770 409759 406749 404743 406738 409730
      414720
 0.01 335171 333170 332169 332168 330167 328167 327166 325166
      323166 322167 323167 324168 326170 328171 330171 331172
      333172 335172 335171
 0.01 272801 271797 269793 265792 260791 255793 251795 249798
      250803 254805 259804 265803 270802 272801
 0.25 393713 391704 389698 385700 383704 380711 379720 377728
      376735 378742 383742 387740 391734 393727 393715 393713
 0.25 400966 401955 400946 396932 394922 390916 384911 378909
      369937 366946 363952 358957 354963 350968 348975 345982
      342985 335988 327988 321988 317988 315990 312997 307002
      299009 297012 296016 297024 300031 301038 305052 306061
      304066 302071 298073 293073 286074 278072 269072 266072
      264075 265078 267080 272083 279086 284092 288096 291102
      292105 296107 301110 309118 314114 321114 329117 334119
      343118 347120 353123 360124 365121 367118 367115 363107
      363099 369085 370077 373076 376078 374065 375059 377055
      379047 382038 384032 391022 394014 396005 396994 398986
      400966
 0.50 391986 392977 392968 389956 386940 386937 382936 379941
      375945 372951 367960 355983 351993 345995 339995 326997
      321998 315000 307007 302015 303020 307023 310027 310034
      313047 313052 312057 312065 311072 309079 305082 298080
      292079 284078 280077 276078 280082 284087 288089 300093
      305092 306087 310086 313088 317091 325099 328103 331109
      334112 338112 343109 344107 340105 339102 342098 343089
      347085 352084 356082 366059 370033 377024 384013 389001
      391986
 0.50 359118 359116 358115 356114 355114 353113 351112 350112
      351115 352116 353117 354118 356118 358118 359118
 1.00 378999 378995 376992 373993 369996 365001 358006 350008
      343004 326004 318006 311009 308013 309016 318015 326013
      334014 342017 346020 348024 350031 355033 361033 371021
      375014 377003 378999
 1.00 358051 354046 347042 347038 345035 337034 329032 324033
      322035 323050 319056 320059 323061 326065 325069 321076
      320081 322084 329085 335083 338081 340078 339070 333064
      331062 333061 339056 354055 358051
 1.50 332058 331055 330055 329054 327055 326055 325056 324057
      325058 326059 328059 330058 332058

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.