Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 291838
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 30/0000 UTC THRU AUG 31/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS INTO THIS REGION..AND ESPECIALLY
SO OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF WA AND NORTHERN OR.
IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LARGE SCALE
LFT..ALONG WITH A MODEST AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE..WILL SUPPORT THE
LARGE SCALE RAINFALL EVENT..AND AGAIN WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS IN
THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COASTAL RANGES.
OVERALL THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION..AND KEPT
THE AREAL AVERAGE 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.


...LOWER LAKES INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

THE WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM H5 S/WV NOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS
TO TURN MORE EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER
SUNDAY..WHILE A WEAK BUT DEFINEABLE H5 SHEAR AXIS PERSISTS
SOUTHWEST OF THIS S/WV BACK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  SOME
ENHANCED LIFT LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN STREAM S/WV THRU
THE LOWER LAKES 1ST HALF OF THE PERIOD EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE IN A
WEAKENING AND/OR SHEARING OUT MODE..SO AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINS EXPECTED VICINITY OF THE LOWER LAKES.  LIFT LIKELY
TO BE LESS FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRAILING SHEAR
AXIS..AND WITH NO SURFACE FOCUS AVAILABLE..KEPT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ASSOCITED WITH IT IN THE LIGHT RANGE.


...FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

THE INITIAL CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS PERIOD.  IMPROVING LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH A PLUME OF HIGHER PWS BEING BROUGHT IN ON AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION PARTS OF AL INTO GA AND THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA.  THERE`S REASONABLE MODEL QPF AGREEMENT ON MORE
ORGANIZED 0.50-1.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS..AND STUCK CLOSE TO THIS
SCENARIO..ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA INTO THE KEYS...

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FL PENINSULA AND THE FL KEYS DURING THE PERIOD..BRINGING
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION..AND ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST COAST OF THE
FL PENINSULA..WHERE AN INITIALLY MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY H85 FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS PROBABLE..WHICH COULD LEAD
TO ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBANIZED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 534209 532199 528188 527184 527176 524167 519160 512152
      500144 493140 488134 483130 481127 478127 476131 472130
      469123 467113 470110 473108 475103 479099 481095 481090
      480084 477080 476075 473073 468072 465069 462070 459073
      456076 452077 449074 447070 442067 438069 437080 436086
      434089 428091 425098 423105 419106 412107 408098 405099
      402103 396098 398092 400090 411077 416071 417066 417061
      414059 410057 403055 395055 389055 380055 376054 372053
      366052 359054 358060 356064 352075 349078 345078 342079
      336078 328076 323076 320077 314077 309075 302071 295068
      289069 284069 281067 276064 263058 257054 248051 228054
      227059 227063 231069 232073 235076 238078 240082 246087
      254091 272110 280113 285117 299123 308126 313126 317124
      334121 336130 338133 344134 348136 350139 353142 357141
      369133 373129 380127 385122 392120 397118 400116 404117
      408119 408121 413123 417128 416139 420142 422141 432130
      435132 438136 437141 435144 431149 429154 429156 431159
      434158 440156 450149 452151 451153 448155 444157 443162
      443169 444172 447176 449182 461189 464192 469193 473192
      471196 466201 460205 449212 441211 437211 435214 428228
      426230 423231 416233 413236 411240 407253 411259 421263
      437261 444259 448260 451259 459259 467260 471260 473262
      477265 477270 479287 480294 484300 489302 492300 497289
      511286 515278 518265 520260 520255 520247 519241 517233
      513226 510219 507212 510204 513202 517202 527210 530213
      532213 534209
 0.01 505654 504647 503641 500634 496628 494626 490627 486634
      484642 480644 478640 478638 475628 473626 470628 465632
      463638 458655 457672 455681 454691 452698 451701 452706
      455716 458722 462721 464725 463733 466757 473769 476770
      478767 483763 489750 492743 494732 495725 496717 501680
      505654
 0.01 437796 436788 434782 432780 430781 427778 427768 427760
      426753 424748 422746 418743 401783 398788 393794 389798
      384801 374808 365817 358823 355825 352819 350812 346807
      344802 345796 343776 343771 347766 352757 356751 357743
      358734 354732 348733 330748 311764 302770 296773 289776
      283777 278776 269773 250763 228754 223753 216754 212758
      210761 210765 211777 210781 211788 212796 215802 219812
      224815 228821 234831 242837 248839 254838 286858 298864
      306863 311861 315859 318860 320862 323870 326875 328881
      331884 334889 338891 343894 348895 358897 366897 373898
      375901 373903 369907 359915 352924 339941 330945 326947
      323952 327952 330954 335954 349954 357954 362952 366949
      370944 373937 376934 380931 384928 398913 413892 418882
      424868 427857 430844 432831 433825 435818 437806 437796
 0.01 321977 319974 314974 310976 308979 305983 304987 305992
      306996 309000 313001 315998 316992 317986 319982 321977
      321977
 0.25 513261 514253 514249 512240 511231 508224 501209 497204
      490202 483202 477205 467209 460213 454215 448215 442217
      437222 435225 436228 441229 440233 438236 432240 427244
      426248 430250 436250 444252 451251 458249 463249 472252
      479256 484261 487267 489272 489276 490286 493280 496278
      501279 505279 506274 505270 504263 502260 504257 509261
      513261
 0.25 519188 519182 518178 514171 509166 505164 501164 495163
      488166 487171 488175 492181 497186 502192 508193 512191
      515192 519188
 0.25 500251 498245 496241 493238 491234 488230 484227 481226
      480231 482234 483237 486236 491238 493243 494247 497252
      500251
 0.25 497655 495651 491652 487660 485669 484678 484687 484700
      486702 488699 490690 492682 494673 496663 497655
 0.25 425242 424241 422240 422241 422243 424242 425242
 0.25 425820 426812 425805 422801 419799 413798 409801 407806
      406817 405828 402839 402844 404847 408849 412847 417839
      422832 425822 425820
 0.25 392080 392077 390075 387073 383073 380073 378076 379080
      381082 382084 386085 388084 390082 392080
 0.25 342100 343096 342093 340089 339088 335087 333089 331092
      331094 331097 332099 336101 338102 340102 342100
 0.25 340825 340817 337812 334810 331805 331783 328779 323778
      313783 298790 292792 286792 276791 260788 233766 225763
      220764 217768 217771 218777 220786 224796 227807 230816
      234822 237827 241829 252829 260827 265827 269828 273830
      278831 283833 289832 298830 304830 308831 313834 316836
      320846 324854 327863 329869 332874 337874 340871 341868
      342862 341849 339834 340825
 0.25 313101 313096 311093 308089 303084 297081 289079 283078
      276075 269073 262071 256072 252073 251077 253083 262091
      271100 282106 291108 299109 310105 313101
 0.50 509243 507232 504223 501214 496208 488205 481206 474209
      469211 454217 446218 441219 438224 440226 448225 453225
      453231 450232 443237 441241 445245 451247 457246 466245
      472247 481250 485256 489265 491270 494274 502275 503272
      502267 499258 494250 491242 488239 484240 481238 479233
      471228 471225 474223 481224 489228 493235 498242 502249
      504250 506248 509243
 0.50 514181 513177 512174 510171 509169 506168 503168 501170
      499170 496172 496177 498178 501180 503182 506184 509185
      512184 514181
 0.50 335834 334824 332819 328818 322817 319819 319826 320831
      324840 329848 331851 331855 333865 334867 336863 336856
      334852 333848 334845 335841 335834
 0.50 326803 326798 325794 320793 317794 305797 289797 279796
      265793 254789 238774 233770 227767 223768 221772 222780
      224788 227801 232814 239823 244826 251823 259817 266817
      272819 281824 309818 317817 321816 323813 326803
 0.50 295094 295090 293089 288087 283084 277086 275087 271086
      266083 263085 264088 267092 271095 276098 283100 288099
      293096 295094
 1.00 497265 497263 496260 494256 493253 492250 491247 488244
      487244 486246 486248 487251 489255 490258 491261 493264
      495266 497265
 1.00 499237 500222 496212 484209 479210 476212 468215 463216
      459220 461226 465224 473219 478219 483221 488223 492227
      497237 499237
 1.00 479241 479238 479237 478236 477235 476234 474233 472234
      471236 471238 471240 473242 475242 476242 478242 479241
 1.00 459240 460237 458235 457235 455234 453235 451236 450237
      449237 448239 448241 449242 450243 452242 454241 455241
      456240 458240 459240
 1.00 261807 269806 277808 286812 293810 293806 288802 278800
      266796 254793 246787 238780 233778 228780 229786 229795
      232804 234810 236814 240816 244816 248815 261807
 1.50 496229 497223 496221 493218 491216 489216 487216 485215
      482214 483217 487218 490219 491222 492225 495228 496229
 1.50 265800 263799 261799 259800 257800 255800 254800 252800
      250802 248804 248806 249808 251808 252807 254806 256805
      258804 259803 261803 262803 263802 265800 265800
 1.50 239801 238799 237798 237797 236798 236800 237802 239801

$$





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