Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 250657
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 25/1200 UTC THRU OCT 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHEAST...

A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD.
DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS SERIOUSLY LACKING AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...AND WHILE SOMEWHAT ROBUST...THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITHIN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK
WILL PROGRESS FAIRLY QUICKLY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY
HIGHER OFF THE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FETCH DOWN THE
LENGTH OF THE LAKE FAVORING SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY MODEST...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
WILL PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL FAVOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF MODERATE TO
OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WA/OR/NRN
CA COASTAL RANGES...ALONG WITH THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN SIERRAS.
AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AFOREMENTIONED ELEVATED RANGES... THOUGH PER THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...LOCALIZED 24 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 3-5+
INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED. WPC QPF INCORPORATED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND
GIVEN THE GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z RUNS...AGAIN UTILIZING THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION ECMWF AND RGEM OUTPUT ALONG WITH SOME OF THE 4KM
GUIDANCE (NAM CONEST...WRF-ARW...WRF-NMMB...AND NSSL-WRF).

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 474619 485632 488640 490644 491649 493656 495661 498662
      501661 504662 509663 514670 514674 516677 517682 517693
      515701 513708 509714 502726 501732 499736 497739 496741
      496746 497759 496768 504780 510794 513804 514809 515817
      517828 516837 516843 515846 512851 508857 504858 500858
      491845 485829 481823 477818 475816 471816 469814 464814
      448813 444813 440815 435816 429814 426809 424806 423801
      421798 420799 416797 414795 411791 405792 401794 398797
      394803 384810 379814 376815 376810 380803 385797 392793
      398791 404787 408782 409773 408763 412756 417749 420746
      421741 422732 425728 430725 433722 434717 434708 436700
      440692 440675 442668 445663 447660 447656 446653 447648
      448643 451637 456621 474619
 0.01 544192 543186 541181 535174 527168 522163 515158 509156
      497144 491137 483131 480129 475128 470127 467129 460130
      455133 451141 447142 448138 448133 445133 441132 440132
      439136 432155 434162 440167 446172 448176 448179 447181
      443182 438181 434182 434174 430166 424162 424170 426175
      428177 428182 425184 422183 420180 418175 415175 413179
      414186 411193 409193 405198 403199 402203 399201 394196
      390197 389194 380190 376188 373189 370190 370192 371198
      381211 374212 365211 358212 351214 344220 346228 349230
      353231 363232 370233 376236 381241 387248 393254 405259
      411260 419260 422260 425261 430267 434274 438282 439292
      441297 445301 450302 454302 461302 467299 473294 483284
      489278 496272 504272 507271 510268 514262 519259 522258
      525254 528245 532226 537218
 0.01 478182 477178 473176 470174 466174 462181 457184 452188
      453192 452198 451204 454207 459203 466202 471198 475189
      478182
 0.01 463169 464166 462165 461164 459164 458165 458167 457170
      457172 458173 460173 461173 461171 462170 463169
 0.01 456110 456103 455098 453095 450094 446094 443097 441095
      438096 424088 426096 430102 431104 428105 425105 419111
      415112 410111 409103 408101 407104 405112 402113 403119
      406122 411127 421129 426127 432119 438116 443116 448117
      452117 454115 456110
 0.01 425196 425194 425191 424191 423191 422192 421193 421195
      421197 422198 423198 423197 425196
 0.01 402843 401838 398835 391835 382840 377846 372853 369858
      369862 371867 375867 380866 384863 390858 396853 401846
      402843
 0.01 251794 249793 247792 244792 242794 240795 238798 236800
      237803 239804 243803 244802 247800 250798 250796 251794
 0.25 532206 533199 532195 530191 526188 524186 520184 517177
      514171 510166 505163 502161 501157 498150 492144 481136
      476139 480140 485143 487145 487152 485155 482156 475157
      470151 466150 464154 465157 468159 474162 482172 486179
      486183 485188 484194 482198 477202 468207 463209 459209
      457211 451214 443215 437216 430216 419217 414212 409211
      395203 382197 379196 378199 381204 389213 395219 396223
      392224 388222 383221 380223 380225 380229 382232 386237
      395245 401250 406251 411252 425255 432256 438259 444263
      448269 452276 457282 461284 465285 470283 488270 494267
      501264 505260 510254 513250 516244 518232 517222 518216
      519213 520213 525211 529210 532206
 0.25 512213 512206 510201 506199 503197 498194 493194 490196
      490201 495204 500205 502210 504213 509215 512213
 0.25 498801 497793 495789 490780 485774 478770 474770 471771
      468775 466779 466787 468791 473793 476793 481794 484796
      490803 493805 497804 498801
 0.25 485679 484677 484674 484673 482672 480673 480675 481677
      483680 485680 485679
 0.25 479711 477706 476702 477699 477694 475688 470680 464675
      459676 457678 462681 465686 467691 469697 468699 463700
      460703 456711 454716 452720 446727 446733 445738 439743
      436748 437752 443752 448748 450744 451733 456725 459722
      463720 466720 471721 475721 477718 479711
 0.25 452164 453161 453160 452159 451157 450156 450155 448155
      446154 445153 443154 442154 441156 441159 442161 443162
      444162 445163 447164 448165 450166 451166 452164 452164
 0.25 429187 428187 427186 426187 427187 428187 429187
 0.50 513245 514237 514231 512227 509222 505218 499211 486205
      482202 476206 472209 468211 459213 450217 443217 440217
      437218 433220 426220 423223 425227 430230 436231 441229
      448229 453227 457226 461228 461231 459231 448233 443233
      436235 430235 426232 419230 415229 416221 398206 394204
      388202 385202 384204 388209 397218 401223 397227 387225
      384226 384229 387234 397244 403247 408249 418250 429252
      443253 450254 453257 454262 455268 457273 462277 468277
      473274 482269 499261 504257 508253 511249 513245
 0.50 514189 514183 514179 510172 507169 504168 497168 495165
      491164 484161 482162 483167 487173 489177 489183 491186
      494188 502189 510191 514189
 0.50 497154 496151 494149 493148 493147 492147 493150 494152
      495153 496154 497154 497154
 0.50 485230 485225 481223 476221 472222 469225 466228 464230
      468230 473230 477229 481231 484232 485230
 1.00 511244 511236 508231 503223 501218 497214 489213 485210
      482209 475212 460220 465223 469222 472219 476217 487223
      490226 492231 480241 479236 477233 474233 472238 474244
      479246 479251 476257 475261 481261 487260 495257 498255
      501251 508248 511244
 1.00 458239 458236 455235 450236 441236 437238 431238 420234
      413231 414225 415220 415218 412218 405216 401212 397208
      394206 387205 389207 396215 405221 407232 398230 393230
      391234 399241 403244 409245 421246 430247 435244 439243
      449242 458239
 1.00 447224 446222 445222 443222 443223 444224 446224 447224
 1.00 434225 434224 432224 430224 429223 430224 432225 434225
      434225
 1.50 504239 503236 503233 501230 499227 498224 496223 494223
      494226 495229 497232 498234 501238 502239 504239
 1.50 495251 495249 494247 494246 493244 492243 492242 490240
      489240 487241 486243 486245 486246 486249 487251 486254
      487254 488255 490255 492254 493253 494253 495251
 1.50 426244 427242 426240 424239 421237 418236 414235 411235
      409236 407236 406240 410241 413242 417243 420244 424244
      426244
 1.50 413224 414222 413220 411220 410220 408220 409222 409223
      410225 412225 413224
 1.50 405240 404240 403239 401239 400237 400235 399236 400237
      401239 401240 403241 404240 405240
 1.50 399213 398212 397211 395212 396213 398214 399213

$$





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