Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
000
FXUS04 KWBC 170639
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 17/1200 UTC THRU AUG 18/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...TEXAS/LA/AR...

STRONGLY POSITIVE MOISTURE ANOMALIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TX IN TANDEM WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE 00Z NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) ANOMALIES OF
2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.  A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL
AID LIFT...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TX/ARKLATEX.  THE LIFT
COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED. DEEP LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...SUPPORTING SLOW MOVING
CELLS. LONGER DURATION RAINS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
AFFECTING CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS/ARKLATEX.  THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF THE CYCLONIC SHEAR
AXIS IN THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW REGION OF HIGHER
PW VALUES...AND MANUAL PROGS FOLLOWED THIS IDEA AGAIN...SUPPORTED
BY LOCALIZED MAXIMA IN THE HIGH RES WRF ARW/NSSL WRF AND CANADIAN
REGIONAL GEM.

...MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS NEW YORK WED/WED
NIGHT.  IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...THE UPPER JET STRETCHING FROM
THE LOWER LAKES TO NY/NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTS A FAVORABLE DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN KY AND SPREAD INTO WV AND DOWNSTREAM INTO
VA/MD/DELMARVA...FORCED BY STRONG HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE WRF ARW/NMMB/NSSL WRF/CANADIAN REGIONAL
GEM ALL SHOW LOCALIZED BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN.
MANUAL PROGS USED A MULTI0MODEL AND HIGH RES ENSEMBLE BLEND...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE THE NAM SHOWS UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA AND THE
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES.

...FLORIDA...

DEEP MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA WILL FAVOR ACTIVITY
MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL PERIOD WED
AFTERNOON...SO HIGHER TOTALS ARE ON THE WEST COAST AND LOWER ON
THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MANUAL QPF USED A
MULTI-MODEL/HIGH RES ENSEMBLE BLEND WITH MORE WEIGHTING TO THE
STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF.

...GREAT LAKES/ADJACENT MIDWEST...

THERE IS PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITH LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES NEAR 70 PERCENT IN THE GFS FORECASTS TODAY OVER MI.  MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  MODEL QPFS ARE VARIABLE FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN WITH RESPECT TO PLACEMENT. WPC USES A BLEND OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...WRF-ARW AND NSSL WRF...WHICH FIT WELL WITH
CONTINUITY AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND
THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IN WI WOULD THEN MOVE INTO MI TODAY AS
SHOWN IN THE HIGH RES RUNS...AND THEN INTO THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND THE DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT SHOWERS/STORMS EAST.

...CO/NM...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF
SOUTHWEST CO WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE REGION.  THE MODELS
INDICATE THE CIRCULATION IS SLOW TO MOVE TODAY AS IT REMAINS IN
SOUTHERN CO NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  DAYTIME HEATING AND
SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION TRIGGER
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MODELS....PARTICULARLY THE HIGH RES RUNS...FOCUS ON MAXIMA IN
FAVORED TERRAIN IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  MANUAL PROGS BLENDED
CONTINUITY WITH THE NAM/GFS/21Z SREF MEAN QPF...WITH ADJUSTMENTS
FOR THE WRF ARW AND NSSL WRF QPF.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS...

THE MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYER TROUGH BUILDING OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE TROUGH
STARTS TO DRIVE A FRONT INTO THESE AREAS.  DIFLUENT FLOW DRIVES A
COUPLE OF PRECIP MAXIMA IN RESPONSE TO DIVERGENCE MAXIMA IN
NORTHWEST MT AND A SECOND ONE TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
GIVEN POCKETS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IN EACH AREA...SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED.  THE STRENGTH OF THE 300 MB DIVERGENCE MAXIMA OVER NORTH
DAKOTA 06-12Z THU SUPPORTS A SOLID CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING.
MANUAL PROGS USED A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 478617 484638 484646 485654 485669 483682 481693 479696
      479701 478705 478710 479717 478724 474745 472751 470757
      467767 463780 461785 463787 466786 471783 477782 482784
      486788 489798 488808 481832 478845 475858 470888 467911
      464922 459930 455932 452928 450923 450915 447908 443905
      438903 434902 431904 428914 424921 420933 417936 412938
      409937 406933 401925 399917 396911 390900 389895 390889
      394882 401862 402854 401849 399851 394859 387869 381879
      372893 366901 366916 362941 359954 356969 353979 350987
      339004 332011 330016 327020 324025 321032 317043 315048
      312050 305053 300053 297054 296057 295071 294079 297084
      299088 302093 293113 290117 288118 282113 279110 274106
      268101 250087 237073 224061 228028 229027 230026 232026
      233025 234025 235023 235021 236021 237019 237017 238017
      239015 239013 239011 238010 236009 234008 234007 233006
      232005 231004 231977 240983 245987 252988 255988
      254983 255977 252974 248972 246970 245966 250954 257944
      266933 269927 274922 277918 280913 282912 284907 285900
      284860 286853 285851 282851 267850 260848 255846 249841
      245835 243829 243823 242819 241816 237813 233807 232798
      234795 239794 244793 247791 254783 264776 274774 282773
      287776 290778 292782 293789 295792 297792 303795 307799
      310799 311796 317791 322787 328781 331776 332770 336756
      338749 339746 343745 352744 354746 353751 350763 345776
      339790 331802 328807 331808 333806 339803 343798 350787
      354780 356770 360756
 0.01 360756 361737 362713 363694 365683 369677 373671 377668
      381667 385667 388670 392681 398699 400706 402712 404725
      405735 408747 409759 408770 411777 414787 415795 417797
      421789 440760 442752 442746 442740 443734 441731 439731
      427734 425732 426729 429721 440706 442697 440683 436654
      436644 436637 438631
 0.01 544957 544944 541936 537936 535936 534932 536922 537916
      537912 536910 531909 526909 516910 512911 507913 499916
      495919 492922 489927 485935 481944 478947 475950 469951
      463952 450951 446951 442953 440961 439974 440981 441986
      444997 448010 449016 449023 447030 442030 438031 438037
      440044 440050 438055 435059 433063 430067 428073 425081
      419088 421094 422098 422102 419107 421111 422114 424115
      429116 432113 435111 440111 443117 444123 439133 437138
      436145 438151 441155 446155 448153 449149 449145 444143
      442138 446130 450117 454115 458116 464117 468120 476129
      480136 484141 490149 494156 501164 507172 514179 524182
      528175 529164 528158 530150 531144 530140 527129 522117
      518107 515097 513087 510078 508075 506076 505079 502088
      501092 499089 498083 497080 499078 502073 510053 514044
      517038 519032 517026 521017 526008 531000 536991 541979
      544957
 0.01 424179 424170 426166 426160 428150 428143 427139 424137
      419142 410155 406160 403162 399164 395167 390174 387181
      385185 385191 385193 387197 390200 394201 398201 401201
      406194 410190 416187 424179
 0.01 415108 415103 413101 410093 406093 404097 401101 399098
      400095 402087 407079 409074 412073 414069 414061 418057
      416054 413051 405051 399046 396043 395044 389045 385044
      382042 377042 366041 354048 347052 345055 344061 350063
      352067 349070 333075 330075 327078 326081 328084 336100
      340116 343126 347132 353136 356138 359137 363137 365133
      365129 367129 375131 380131 383129 387127 389124 397120
      407118 412113 415108
 0.01 409024 407021 406021 404021 402021 400023 398025 398028
      400030 402032 403030 405028 407026 409024 409024
 0.01 408007 409000 408996 406991 403986 400986 397988 394993
      394995 396002 396007 397014 399017 403016 406012 408008
      408007
 0.01 393100 393098 392097 391096 390095 389094 387095 388097
      388098 388100 387102 386104 388106 389105 390104 391103
      392102 393100
 0.01 337058 338056 336056 334055 332055 330055 329055 327055
      326057 327057 328059 330060 332060 334060 336058 337058
      337058
 0.01 307812 307810 307808 305806 304808 302810 303812 304814
      306814 307812
 0.25 460624 463625 465630 466637 464647 462655 459662 457670
      453676 450678 448675 445663 443652 443642 446634 450627
 0.25 519156 516147 512138 509128 507125 503124 499126 497125
      492124 489126 487130 488136 493145 499151 505156 513161
      517161 519156
 0.25 512986 512983 511986 512986 512986
 0.25 495010 496005 495999 494989 492987 489988 483987 480988
      478992 476002 476007 477012 478022 483029 486029 489027
      493018 495010
 0.25 454100 454098 453096 453095 452094 450093 448094 447094
      447097 448098 450098 451100 453101 454100
 0.25 456847 457840 456832 452828 448825 441820 438814 435810
      429805 424808 421813 420824 416837 414848 412855 410861
      407870 403883 400893 406903 408905 414905 417901 418896
      422884 425878 428874 433866 444863 451857 455852 456847
 0.25 410815 410804 407797 403791 400784 398773 397765 397752
      396747 395741 389730 385724 378723 376725 375728 372735
      370746 367755 362784 360793 358802 354808 349813 344816
      337818 326821 318824 313828 310837 308840 306837 294830
      296828 295825 288822 281820 275816 276811 272807 261800
      257800 252802 248806 247810 248814 250817 254820 262826
      274831 279832 283831 284832 284837 287839 292840 295838
      297839 298843 298847 298853 300861 304866 306867 308865
      309861 310853 311848 314845 321846 325841 330842 333845
      334850 339853 345856 349856 354855 358856 359861 360867
      362871 369873 373870 378864 381858 396830 398825 402822
      407818 410815
 0.25 399060 397056 393054 389054 386056 380064 372060 367061
      366064 369067 371071 373082 376085 379084 382081 384076
      386073 391073 394071 397067 399060
 0.25 376051 374049 372049 370050 369050 370052 372053 374053
      376051
 0.25 364067 365065 364064 362063 361062 359062 357064 357067
      358069 360070 362070 362069 364068 364067
 0.25 361056 363054 361052 359053 359054 358056 359058 361056
      361056
 0.25 355089 356087 355085 354084 352083 350081 348081 347080
      345081 344083 345084 346085 348086 350088 351089 353090
      355089 355089
 0.25 353923 354914 353909 352905 349902 346901 339904 334907
      328911 321915 315917 309917 302918 297918 292920 288926
      282939 276947 272953 270959 267965 266968 266971 272976
      275981 284987 285990 284993 280997 271006 267012 266016
      268019 276026 277031 276034 273035 266037 261039 254041
      245041 242042 236039 231040 229043 230047 233051 237055
      240062 245068 252075 257079 262081 270081 274077 277070
      279060 280050 283049 285046 286039 292040 296040 299038
      309043 308036 307033 314024 322012 328999 339978 345962
      349947 353923
 0.25 335887 335884 334883 334882 332881 331881 329882 328883
      327884 326885 325886 324887 324889 324892 326893 327893
      329893 331892 332891 333890 334889 334887 335887
 0.25 309888 309887 307886 306888 307890 307891 308890 309888
      309888
 0.50 503147 505145 505143 504140 502137 501135 499134 498133
      496132 494131 493132 493135 493137 494139 494140 495142
      496143 497144 498145 500146 501147 503148 503147
 0.50 461636 461631 458629 453629 449635 447640 446648 446656
      448663 449667 450670 454668 455663 457655 458649 460641
      461636
 0.50 446843 445839 444838 441837 440837 437839 435840 433842
      432845 431850 431855 432857 436857 438856 441854 442851
      443848 444846 446843
 0.50 431833 431829 427830 426832 424834 422836 421839 420844
      421848 423850 426848 427845 428842 430839 431835 431833
 0.50 420863 419861 417861 416863 416865 417866 419865 419864
      420863
 0.50 398800 395795 394792 393787 394780 392769 389755 388750
      386746 383740 380737 376739 375748 373755 371760 370767
      369776 369781 371786 372791 375795 373802 369806 360814
      354819 351823 348827 345833 345840 348842 351839 356838
      359838 362840 365845 366856 369860 374859 378854 382848
      384843 387836 388828 390820 398800
 0.50 378080 378078 379076 379074 378071 378069 376067 375065
      374064 373064 372064 371066 373068 374071 374073 374075
      374078 375080 375081 377081 378080
 0.50 347923 347918 346914 344911 340910 333914 328920 322923
      320924 315924 310924 307926 301933 296935 290939 287946
      282952 279956 276964 279968 279972 281975 284978 288979
      289981 289991 288997 286000 284003 282007 278011 276013
      276016 283020 286022 286028 287031 290032 295036 299029
      305024 314015 318007 321001 324994 327988 331980 333971
      335964 338958 344941 344930 347923
 0.50 273822 270818 268816 264813 262810 258808 253809 251812
      253814 257818 259820 263822 267824 270824 273822
 0.50 267070 269066 268061 265054 259051 252048 248048 245049
      243051 243054 243058 245062 249068 254072 259077 263078
      266074 267070
 1.00 456645 456640 454636 452636 451638 450642 450646 450650
      450654 450657 450662 451664 453662 453658 453655 454651
      455648 456645
 1.00 373833 374830 374828 372827 371828 370831 371832 372833
      373833 373833
 1.00 325956 326948 323946 321948 319953 317961 314962 310965
      307970 305975 297984 295989 295996 298997 300995 304991
      309990 314990 318987 321981 321974 320967 322961 325956
 1.00 306004 304003 302004 302005 302006 304007 305006 306005
      306004

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.