Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 171854
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
154 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 18/0000 UTC THRU DEC 19/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NORTHEAST...

LATEST STLT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WARM CONVEYOR
BELT (WCB) STRETCHING N-S FROM EASTERN MAINE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME...ELONGATED CCB AND DEEPENING
TROWAL ZONE IS NOTED NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NY W-NW INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE
CONSOLIDATED ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST...THE PRIMARY SFC LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ALONG THE TRIPLE
POINT/SHARPENING COASTAL LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT A FLURRY OF MDT TO HEAVY QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE INTENSIFYING
SURFACE LOW AND A WELL-DEFINED/EXPANDING COMMA HEAD TO TRACK FROM
NH THROUGH DOWN EAST MAINE. THIS IS WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AREAL AVG QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5+ INCHES...A GOOD CHUNK
OF IT MAINLY RAIN BUT A STREAK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND
ESP NORTHEAST MAINE. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...CONTINUE TO EXPECT
LIGHTER...LAKE-ENHANCED QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/RE-ENFORCING THERMAL ZONE SLICING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS WHERE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
SNOWFALL CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF EXPECTED OFF
LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE TUG-HILL PLATEAU.


...WEST COAST...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES...

THE COMBINATION OF MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES... ONE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AT THE MOMENT AND ANOTHER MORE ELONGATED FEATURE DROPPING INTO
SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ...WILL PARTIALLY MERGE AND PROGRESS
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BEFORE EJECTING OUT INTO THE
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY INTO THURS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER ELONGATED...N-S ORIENTED SHORTWAVE
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST CURRENTLY WILL MOVE ACROSS WA/OR/CA
TONIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THU. THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES
CURRENTLY ARE CAPITALIZING ON MODEST PAC MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MODEST QPF AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
VALUES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES IN NORTHERN CA AND
SOUTHWEST OR...AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SAN JUANS MTNS.


...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...

THE INCREASING UPPER JET DYNAMICS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ENHANCE
THE S-SW RETURN FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AS THE SWATH OF PRECIP CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS INTO KS AND MO/AR. THE SRN TIER OF
THIS SHIELD WILL BE MAINLY RAIN WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF (AREAL
AVERAGE AMOUNTS BTWN .50 AND .75 INCH) ON EITHER SIDE OF  THE
TX/OK RED RIVER...WHILE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVERRIDES INTO THE COLD
SECTOR TO THE NORTH FOR POSSIBLE FROZEN PRECIP FROM KS INTO MO.
OVERALL WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS ON MASS FIELDS
FOR THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM AND A BLEND OF HI-RES GUIDANCE WITH THE
ECMWF/INTERNAL PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR QPF.

HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 19/00Z
 0.01 516656 514664 513673 510682 507688 498702 494709 493718
      491726 490735 489739 489746 488752 483759 477765 473766
      471768 464770 457771 451769 448768 445765 442765 440768
      441776 445785 447790 448794 448804 449816 449821 451826
      452830 454833 454840 449834 446831 442830 438830 436832
      434828 434823 432821 429819 428815 427805 426800 424802
      417816 414820 412817 412812 412803 409798 407793 403794
      399800 396808 398811 398816 394823 392831 389833 389826
      390820 389814 389809 387805 384807 380807 380805 381800
      386795 387792 391792 405787 412784 416781 416778 424775
      426770 424765 418750 424740 419738 417735 419733 423730
      424727 417724 421720 423719 422716 421714 419711 419707
      416701 414692 415682 418675 418669 421666 426660 427659
      428654 419638
 0.01 514285 516275 517265 516251 512239 509233 506226 500216
      497213 494211 489207 485204 481207 472211 461214 452216
      449215 447213 450207 455205 458204 458202 462197 462193
      459192 457189 458187 465184 469182 472178 480177 481193
      485194 488192 492192 495193 498195 502191 504187 506186
      509191 515194 520195 525194 527193 525190 520184 517179
      512173 509170 506169 503166 499162 497156 496150 493144
      487133 482130 474128 472129 471132 471136 470140 480142
      482144 481147 479148 476148 468144 462143 457144 453148
      449149 443147 438143 436144 435147 434152 432154 432159
      437163 440163 444169 450180 448185 444186 441183 438180
      435174 434167 431164 419161 428176 429180 427184 425184
      422181 419178 414177 408178 407185 420188 426190 428196
      432210 437212 439215 438219 436221 432221 427223 424224
      422221 418219 417217 415212 415206 412204 410204 408208
      404211 398210 395209 393206 389201 384200 380199 380201
      381205 380208 375209 369210 362211 358214 360218 366230
      369234 374237 380239 384243 390246 394249 398253 403259
      404265 404274 400291 401296 405300 411303 417302 427301
      437299 442299 449299 458300 462300 466302 473304 480306
      487306 496306 501306 505303 510294 514285
 0.01 461163 459160 458161 456162 455164 457166 459165 461163
      461163
 0.01 455115 453111 453107 454103 452095 444097 438098 435102
      431106 426108 424114 419114 415115 412115 410116 408114
      408107 405109 383114 380114 379116 377121 381122 383117
      386120 391121 393126 397122 399120 402123 405122 408117
      413120 417118 421119 424125 424129 426129 429125 432121
      436118 441120 444125 448126 450121 453116 455115
 0.01 452855 451850 448850 439856 436858 433859 431857 427857
      422855 418849 420858 417863 417865 421867 426867 431869
      435871 436869 440871 444870 445865 450857 452855
 0.01 419956 414930 411915 410905 409899 407880 407875 406872
      405862 402847 399843 393844 387853 383851 379846 376842
      373836 372830 372822 372813 367811 362809 359813 353823
      348835 344846 345862 346871 346876 343877 335883 330882
      322883 318886 313890 301909 294917 289926 286940 285947
      283952 280958 277963 266968 255973 251975 253980 264983
      267987 267990 264992 259993 253992 247990 243990 240992
      237992 236995 238998 242002 248005 257008 267014 278016
      287011 298006 302004 306000 308993 308989 312988 323984
      330983 335984 347987 354994 362001 372023 373026 376028
      380029 385033 383040 381044 377044 372048 370050 367050
      361049 361054 357058 357064 358070 360076 358081 356079
      356075 352077 349083 348085 347089 347097 348101 353098
      355104 359103 362103 364105 368106 368100 373098 377101
      379105 381106 383101 392095 399083 401076 403072 405071
      406072 408070 410067 406063 406056 402053 396051 394045
      396041 392036 391028 391022 392014 394007 398001 405991
      411981 415968 419956
 0.01 382147 382145 382144 380144 379142 377141 375141 375143
      375145 375146 376146 378146 380147 382147 382147
 0.01 370183 369181 367178 366175 364173 362172 359171 357171
      357174 358177 359181 361182 364182 368183 370183
 0.01 369151 369149 367148 365148 363150 361152 363155 364155
      365155 366153 367153 369151 369151
 0.01 377062 376060 375055 372055 368055 366057 363058 362060
      363063 366064 368063 370061 371062 375064 377062
 0.01 368140 367132 368128 368124 363123 360120 354119 352115
      346109 346104 343103 344096 343091 343085 343079 343075
      335071 318072 303077 294079 288083 286086 286090 290098
      295103 298107 295111 285123 280130 276138 276142 279145
      281147 284145 289137 296133 310139 320136 326133 328121
      329116 331114 332116 336118 338123 340126 344128 348135
      354140 356137 355134 357132 360134 361139 362141 365142
      368140
 0.25 492612 495617 498623 500630 502640 502647 501654 500661
      498667 493679 488689 484694 481699 479704 476710 468717
      464721 457723 449729 442731 441728 445724 444720 441719
      440716 441713 444711 447710 447708 444705 438705 433703
      430699 429696 429692 431687 432679 438656 437649 434644
      427635
 0.25 505290 507282 506277 502267 497260 490253 481251 472251
      456252 449255 442261 441270 435276 433280 436282 444279
      448279 453280 457282 462286 465289 468291 478296 486298
      495296 501296 505290
 0.25 507250 508245 507240 506237 504235 503233 501230 499229
      495228 494230 495233 496236 498239 499242 501246 503248
      504250 507250
 0.25 440757 439755 438753 436752 435753 435754 434756 433757
      433759 434761 434762 436762 437761 438760 439759 440757
 0.25 434730 432730 430730 429730 428731 429732 431732 432732
      434730
 0.25 411223 412221 411220 410221 409221 408222 407224 407225
      406227 407227 408228 409227 410225 411225 411223
 0.25 390232 390230 390229 388228 387228 385228 385229 384230
      384231 386232 388232 390232 390232
 0.25 398966 396957 398951 399940 398935 395933 391933 389936
      386934 385931 381911 378902 374897 367886 367892 364895
      362899 360906 357916 356920 353922 344922 330929 325933
      321940 317946 315950 315956 315961 316964 323969 335969
      350963 359961 366964 369966 371970 374977 376986 376997
      377003 378007 383001 392988 398966
 0.25 392075 391073 390072 389072 389073 387075 388076 390076
      392075 392075
 0.25 386090 386088 384087 383088 383090 384090 385091 386090
 0.25 311939 310932 308930 305930 300933 297937 292949 287960
      285966 283971 279975 276980 277983 281983 285981 292972
      298971 301966 303952 310941 311939
 0.50 448628 455632 459632 464631 468630 473627 479620 482618
      485618 488621 491625 494637 495650 494655 493661 488668
      479686 474692 467699 464702 459703 453698 446693 443688
      442684 441679 442672 442662 443650 442642 439639 432633
 0.50 502288 504284 503280 501274 497268 494263 491261 487262
      483266 482273 483278 486285 491289 495291 500290 502288
 0.50 349947 349941 346938 341938 337939 333941 332945 331952
      332956 336960 341959 344956 346953 348949 349947
 1.00 479660 479653 477646 470641 467640 462643 453643 452646
      451653 452659 451664 451676 452681 456685 460686 465684
      471677 476669 479660
 1.50 467664 467659 466656 464655 462656 460659 459662 459667
      458669 459674 462674 464673 465670 466667 467664

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