Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 211820
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
219 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 22/0000 UTC THRU JUL 23/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...

...SOUTHEASTERN/SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES...

ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION..IN
ADVANCE OF THE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE H5 TROF NOW STRETCHING FROM THE
LOWER OH VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
AHEAD OF THIS H5 TROF..A MOIST AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES FROM THE
CAROLINAS INTO GA AND FL WITH MODELS SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
23/00Z.  THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD BE DECREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY SUNSET ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO
STABILIZE.  STILL THINK THAT MORE CONVECTION WILL FORM ON
TUESDAY...AND THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.  BUT THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WONT BE AS HIGH AS THEY WERE
TODAY.


...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

THE AREA FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING
OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES TURNS EASTWARD.  SURFACE
PRESSURES FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND A LOW FORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL DRAW MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES POOLING IN VICINITY OF
THE FRONT LEADING TO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
SOME 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH SOME
2 TO 3+ INCH TOTALS.

THE 12Z SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO BE SPLIT ON THE IDEA
OF WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SET UP...WITH THE 12Z
CYCLE EVEN OPENING UP SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THE HEAVIEST PCPN
SPREADS EAST. THE 12Z WPC GRAPHICS FOR DAY 1 LARGELY FOLLOWED THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
FOR TIMING THE BEST PCPN AREA.  THE MODEL AGREEMENT WAS NOT TOO
DISPARATE THERE.  THE DIFFERENCE IN NORTH/SOUTH PLACEMENT
REMAINED.  THE GEM REGIONAL/GFS/UKMET WERE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE BY 22/06Z.  THE NAM WAS ABOUT AT THE SAME LATITUDE AS
THE ECMWF BUT CERTAINLY SLOWER. THE WPC FORECAST WAS TO STAY A BIT
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE NEAR THE FRINGE OF THE CAPE.
THIS IDEA HAD THE SUPPORT OF THE HI RES GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH WE DID
NOT FOLLOW THEIR IDEA OF STREAKING HEAVY RAIN EASTWARD AS FAST AS
THE WRF/SSEO.

...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE AREA WILL BE IN A REGION OF CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
ALLOWS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.  CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS
HANDLING OF THE SMALL S/WV DETAILS IS RATHER LOW..SO DON`T HAVE A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER MODEL QPF DETAILS OVER THE AREA.
AS A RESULT..INCLUDED A FAIR DEGREE OF CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHILE INCORPORATING THE OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE.   THE RESULT WAS GENERALLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
RAINS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN NV AND SOUTHEASTERN OR NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 23/00Z
 0.01 530205 530202 529199 527196 526195 526196 525198 526198
      526201 526204 527204 528205 530205 530205
 0.01 518273 519264 517257 510246 506243 503236 500232 496233
      495238 497239 500245 502251 504254 503259 498260 493259
      488262 488267 489270 491275 494281 498285 505288 510287
      513282 518273
 0.01 522789 522779 520773 519765 518753 515744 512739 509736
      502733 498734 495736 490744 487752 483762 482786 477797
      470806 462812 456815 453818 445831 440838 437845 430862
      426871 423881 421892 418897 415902 401917 399920 397926
      396932 397937 398944 399949 402956 407961 412956 419942
      424934 427925 432918 435915 437916 437919 438923 439926
      442933 447944 451953 452958 453967 453980 454992 457002
      459008 454010 451015 451020 453023 457031 458040 461052
      462057 461065 461078 462083 461086 459086 456081 453079
      451075 447073 444073 449083 448087 445089 441091 438090
      437096 436100 436103 435107 436112 436115 439117 443122
      442127 440131 437140 435152 437156 441160 445162 441166
      439168 434169 430166 429163 423157 418157 416170 415175
      412178 402179 404167 409155 410150 408148 405148 390178
      387181 386185 386189 389191 386195 381195 384200 395203
      400205 404207 406210 407213 410214 414216 412220 406226
      402229 402233 411240 414244 418247 423246 431244 434243
      437246 441247 444246 450242 456236 461229 467224 471222
      475221 481222 486221 490219 493214 498200 503192 510188
      514184 514181 511179 509175 506169 503165 505158 507154
      507152 505142 502134 500129 502122 506110 505101 504097
      501094 496094 492096 486102 481107 482114 484119 486122
      484123 481120 477120 475119 474116 474110 472103 469097
      467092 468084 469078 471074 475067 480044 482040 484038
      487038 492040 499036 506031 509027 508024 504023 501021
      495019 491017 478015 485992 489972 493953 495940 497930
      498924 502922 507916 512908 516895 518883 518877 519872
      520864 520858 521842 523807 522797 522789
 0.01 468200 469195 466194 464194 461194 458195 456197 455200
      453203 452205 454207 457207 458205 460200 462200 465200
      468200
 0.01 434718 434711 434707 431707 427710 425712 424710 422706
      420712 417723 415731 412738 407740 402745 398755 397757
      394759 390760 381766 375765 373762 366755 359749 353748
      347749 338754 331756 326759 314766 307770 303773 298775
      293777 287778 283780 277781 270782 264781 255778 247780
      240783 232790 229792 227797 226801 226806 228810 232814
      235816 239818 242819 243822 243826 244833 246839 250841
      256840 265833 268841 270848 270854 269866 268880 270893
      273905 275911 275917 279925 282929 283933 286935 290928
      292925 295926 296931 299944 303954 307945 307939 308937
      308933 307930 308924 308916 307912 306905 304900 304897
      306895 326900 338897 349891 356885 363876 370857 372847
      372839 373831 373823 372818 373815 373811 375808 378803
      382799 388795 393794 397794 398798 396807 393817 389828
      383837 379841 381845 389840 394836 396832 401828 406825
      416809 419800 421786 423778 425773 432761 433759 432754
      433747 434740 433732 434718
 0.01 446041 443034 437030 433029 429030 426032 422031 413028
      409026 406021 401014 397007 396004 396999 396988 396976
      396970 395968 390968 387970 386976 384981 382983 376985
      374987 371987 367993 365998 364000 359005 353010 345013
      339016 333021 328029 325036 323040 320041 318043 314045
      311043 307042 302042 298044 296046 295051 292052 287052
      278049 272046 265047 258048 253048 249046 244046 242049
      242054 241059 242065 245068 250074 255078 261081 266085
      269087 274088 301105 305101 305093 303075 305071 309069
      312066 314065 317067 323081 327086 331088 333090 337096
      340100 341100 336082 333075 335070 337067 343064 348060
      351058 356059 361058 362055 362042 361040 362036 364032
      365028 368023 371022 375022 392023 399038 402041 405042
      410045 413045 416043 418043 423044 427042 431043 439044
      443043 446041
 0.01 421195 420194 419193 417193 416194 417196 418196 420196
      421195
 0.01 290071 291066 290062 288064 284064 282062 280061 277059
      275061 272063 270064 270068 271071 274072 278073 282073
      285073 289072 290071
 0.25 514264 515261 514261 513260 511257 511254 511252 509250
      507251 507253 508256 509259 510259 511261 512263 514264
      514264
 0.25 504276 504273 504272 503270 503269 501268 501267 500266
      498265 497265 497268 498269 499270 500272 501272 502275
      503277 504276
 0.25 517835 518824 517813 514790 514783 512778 509777 505778
      499782 495789 483814 480820 478824 474827 459830 453833
      449838 446843 442850 435866 433873 431883 428897 420909
      410921 410926 413927 417923 426915 435906 446872 449867
      452862 456859 462863 464866 464872 459878 454881 449887
      447904 448914 449923 455941 457953 456964 457973 458981
      460988 463996 468003 470004 472001 476995 479986 482969
      486954 489943 491932 492922 495914 506887 512870 514861
      515850 517835
 0.25 465176 464174 462171 458172 456172 454174 453178 451180
      450185 451189 454189 456187 458187 460185 462183 464179
      465176
 0.25 429197 430195 431193 430190 428192 428194 429197 429197
 0.25 419187 419185 418184 418185 416187 418188 419187
 0.25 361772 358768 355768 348774 344779 342782 339782 337776
      335773 333773 313779 307780 299783 289787 279787 276789
      269790 261792 257795 248802 247807 247809 255815 259819
      264822 274825 284826 288827 293829 297833 298837 297841
      296847 296852 304857 307859 311858 321850 326848 331848
      336850 338854 333863 326874 328879 332882 336882 340881
      344878 346872 350861 356850 359842 361838 360834 358832
      352833 350830 350826 356817 358812 358808 355804 351802
      346799 346796 348793 353792 355790 356787 358779 361772
 0.25 350035 348033 346032 343032 341033 338034 336036 335038
      335041 337043 340045 344044 346043 348041 349037 350035
 0.25 324823 324819 322817 315815 313811 307808 297805 287801
      282800 276802 275805 276808 280813 290816 301819 306821
      310826 313832 317831 321828 324823
 0.50 513817 512806 511800 509794 507793 504794 501798 496805
      491812 487821 481829 474834 467838 465840 463844 464850
      467855 471863 471869 470873 469878 466881 459888 456891
      454896 453908 453920 454926 456932 459944 459955 459966
      460980 463991 467997 471997 474994 476988 477982 480969
      482959 484949 489922 491914 494904 498891 501880 504874
      508864 511851 512840 513827 513817
 0.50 463178 463176 462176 461176 459177 458177 457178 457179
      457182 459182 460181 461180 462179 463178
 0.50 317793 317790 315789 311788 309788 307788 304789 300791
      298792 295794 297796 301798 303798 307798 310798 314797
      315795 317793
 0.50 284821 280817 275815 270812 269806 267802 265801 259803
      257805 257809 260815 264819 268821 274822 281823 284821
 1.00 508836 508825 507820 506816 502815 500818 495824 488834
      483841 481844 480849 480857 479866 476875 473882 466895
      463903 461913 460920 460925 460931 462942 462952 462969
      464980 466989 470993 474988 476976 478967 480948 484927
      488913 489902 492891 493886 497879 502862 505849 508836
 1.50 506834 505825 501827 491838 489843 487850 488856 487861
      484868 480881 473892 470899 469907 464921 463929 464937
      466948 466957 466966 467974 469979 472982 474978 474974
      479938 486907 486898 488890 493876 496870 498863 498856
      501850 504842 506834
 2.00 484909 484903 481899 481897 479896 476900 472910 469918
      466930 467935 470940 472948 474950 476947 475942 476936
      480927 480921 482916 484909
 2.00 473967 473964 473962 473959 472957 471958 470959 470962
      470964 470967 471969 472968 473967

$$




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