Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 181855
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 19/0000 UTC THRU JUN 20/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

WESTERN NEW ENGLAND---MID ATLANTIC---CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS---TN VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY

WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS LIKELY THIS PERIOD ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING EASTWARD FROM ITS
INITIAL POSITION LYING FROM THE EASTERN LAKES INTO THE OH
VALLEY---LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO A POSITION AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC---SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED AMPLIFYING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED FRONTAL/PRE FRONTAL
CONVECTION IN THE AXIS OF PW VALUES 1.5-2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN.  THERE ARE SOME ISSUES EARLY DAY 1 WITH THE MODEL
HANDLING OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM AR INTO
TN--LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  OTHERWISE---CONFIDENCE IS BETTER NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE UPPER TN VALLEY/APPALACHIANS REGION
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES


WHILE THE PRIMARY COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES EARLY DAY 1 WILL BE CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S.
ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO---CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THIS WILL SUPPORT SHOWERY CONDITIONS FROM EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER
LAKES REGION.  DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS ACROSS THESE
REGIONS.

FLORIDA

TROPICAL PW VALUES---2.25-2.50+ WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  THE EASTERN END OF THIS ANOMALOUS PW AXIS WILL
IMPACT THE LOWER KEYS--NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE
PENINSULA.  THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY PRESSING
IN A GENERAL SOUTH TO NORTH DIRECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS---WITH
ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.  HEAVIEST PRECIP AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE INTO THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD.  SEE
THE LATEST NHC OUTLOOKS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 524262 528246 534228 538212 539199 540193 539189 535182
      530179 525182 522189 520200 517208 515217 513223 511225
      507227 503233 503252 501254 499253 495248 493245 489244
      486243 485248 484251 483254 485262 486270 483276 480283
      476288 472292 470299 472300 476307 477314 481320 483323
      487324 495318 499312 503307 510298 516283
 0.01 545771 543759 540744 534719 528699 525688 522674 512649
      507638 501629 497628 493630 487637 475651 426704 400733
      387747 379755 375757 369757 367755 367750 372742 376733
      378723 378718 376713 372713 370716 359728 344744 336750
      328756 316766 313770 313776 318785 314793 309801 305801
      300800 292799 258794 249794 242798 236806 229812 225816
      224821 223832 222841 222853 223864 225875 225881 227886
      231893 240908 245912 252915 258914 262912 265908 269905
      274900 277896 281896 289902 289908 291913 294922 297926
      301929 308933 311933 313935 315939 314945 312949 308958
      303977 305984 306989 308991 310996 314000 317003 318010
      319013 320017 322016 326014 328009 332001 334995 340994
      343992 345988 349980 356961 358951 358944 359940 363921
      363914 365909 368899 372889 375878 379868 384861 388852
      394844 397845 399853 401859 403863 405868 405875 408885
      409891 412895 412902 410905 409918 408922 410926 414937
      418941 421943 424947 431952 438959 445966 459981 465988
      472995 484008 497018 502019 506022 509024 512023 518020
      521017 520013 517998 515991 513987 500975 487964 479958
      475955 472951 460939 452935 446929 444926 442921 441917
      443914 446910 449907 453904 457903 460901 462895 464888
      466888 466892 470893 473890 480880 482875 486873 489869
      493868 500864 509860 516856 523851
 0.01 523851 526849 529844 531841 533838 535832 536826 539821
      540815 541810 542804 543798 544793 543785 544777 545772
      545771
 0.01 490759 486755 481755 468760 458765 448773 440780 432790
      425798 421803 420806 419811 418818 423822 425823 428822
      434820 442815 446819 450825 456835 461849 460833 459823
      460815 462809 466805 473795 477790 479784 485773 490759
 0.25 538778 538773 537768 535759 530745 524734 520730 518719
      518708 519696 518683 517676 511660 504649 500647 497649
      495652 493658 492661 489664 485667 479669 467675 460681
      456685 447695 438705 427714 418723 410732 394750 385759
      375771 368781 362792 357804 353817 343840 340846 336851
      326862 323868 320874 318881 318888 318896 320903 323909
      323917 323933 322949 321960 320967 321976 324984 326988
      329989 333986 337981 339975 345964 350950 350942 350935
      350930 352922 355907 356897 356887 359880 362874 369863
      376853 383843 391833 397824 405813 414801 431781 438772
      446763 462745 468739 473736 487728 492725 497727 501731
      505737 508742 507751 505760 503766 489786 477814 474821
      470828 467834 466838 467843 470850 473855 479858 483860
      488858 492853 496850 502847 509846 513844 515841 519826
      525812 531798 536789 538778
 0.25 518273 519266 520258 519253 518248 516246 513246 510249
      505256 502259 498260 496262 494269 494274 494282 492289
      493295 495298 498300 505297 510289 515280 518273
 0.25 306831 305825 300821 295818 286819 281818 275817 265810
      257803 251800 247802 245805 243810 240815 232824 227833
      225840 225849 225862 227869 230875 236884 241888 247891
      253891 258889 264887 271885 277883 281881 285876 288870
      289862 288854 286847 288840 297836 303833 306831
 0.50 517267 517259 514254 510257 506261 501264 498271 497281
      497289 501293 505292 508288 512281 514274 517267
 0.50 531779 527769 525764 522762 519764 516768 508774 502782
      494789 490795 486808 483817 477827 472833 470835 470840
      472845 478850 483852 488851 495845 503840 509835 512830
      515824 518815 522805 527796 531785 531779
 0.50 513686 511679 509674 506671 503669 499671 496675 493684
      493693 491700 487704 485705 479705 475703 472702 469699
      469681 464682 462684 455690 447697 439705 426719 414732
      402744 394752 388758 381766 376774 371781 367790 364800
      361807 351826 347835 345845 340853 334859 329867 326874
      323884 321890 322898 324903 325909 326922 326935 325947
      322969 323975 324980 329983 333979 337968 341960 343951
      345940 346927 348919 350907 350890 351885 353879 358872
      377844 389827 402811 413798 423784 449754 454747 458738
      461728 466721 469719 471720 475721 482719 486716 499702
      505700 508696 511691 513686
 0.50 282856 281851 279846 273836 265830 260827 256824 254819
      255817 259819 263820 266819 266815 262811 259807 254805
      249804 248809 250814 246817 238824 232832 227841 227849
      229856 229862 231868 237878 239882 243885 249886 254887
      274878 278875 281871 282865 282858 282856
 1.00 505282 505279 505278 504278 504281 504282 505282
 1.00 512812 513803 511796 507793 503793 495798 492803 491808
      487820 482829 480835 483839 488840 493838 501832 508823
      510819 512812 512812
 1.00 461696 459695 457696 454698 448704 438714 426725 415736
      396758 386772 385776 389778 391778 395775 400771 406767
      411774 409779 404786 398793 388804 385806 380805 377805
      375808 370811 365817 354830 351837 348845 342859 336872
      329889 328900 330903 330908 330924 329933 331942 332948
      334952 336951 336948 337942 338932 341914 343907 342902
      340898 341892 343888 347880 355866 371843 380830 385822
      389816 409795 414789 418781 427767 436756 439750 443742
      447735 449727 451718 453710 461696
 1.00 275859 274850 272845 268841 262837 251831 245830 238833
      234836 230842 230847 233854 235860 238868 241873 245878
      258881 263878 268874 272871 275863 275859
 1.50 504813 505808 504804 502803 499804 497806 497809 496812
      495815 493819 492823 494827 495827 497827 499824 501821
      503819 504816 504813
 1.50 447714 444713 438719 428728 424732 419737 411747 403757
      399763 399766 402765 412757 424749 432740 440728 446716
      447714
 1.50 375828 375826 375823 374823 373824 372825 371826 371827
      370829 369830 368831 368833 369835 371833 372831 373830
      374829 375828
 1.50 356848 356846 356845 356846 356848 356848
 1.50 355852 355850 354849 354850 352852 352853 352855 353856
      354855 354853 355852
 1.50 351859 351856 349858 348860 346863 344866 343868 342871
      343874 345872 346869 348866 349864 350862 351859
 1.50 270859 270853 268847 261841 251837 242835 238836 235840
      234846 234850 238860 244868 247871 252874 256875 261873
      264870 268866 270859
 2.00 264862 265857 264852 260846 255842 250839 245838 240838
      238840 236844 236848 238854 240859 246864 250869 254870
      259868 263864 264862
 3.00 253854 253850 252848 250846 248844 244844 241845 240847
      241851 242853 243855 247857 249857 251857 253854

$$





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