Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 290657
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
156 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 29/1200 UTC THRU NOV 30/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHEAST---MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND

A WELL DEFINED AREAS OF UVVS AND MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL
BE PUSHING QUICKLY NORTHEAST EARLY DAY 1 FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC---NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC---NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.  OVERALL THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT MASS FIELD WISE AMONG
THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
WIDESPREAD AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS.  THERE IS CONSENSUS
IN THE HI RES SIMULATED RADARS FOR THE STRONGEST RADAR
ECHOES---CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS
MORNING---WEAKENING SHORTLY AFTER 1200 UTC---WITH THE EMPHASIS FOR
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP/STRONGEST ECHOES REFOCUSING FARTHER
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AND
ENGLAND.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE FAST NORTHEAST MOVEMENT
OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND THE NORTHEAST PUSH OF THE
STRONGEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE.  THERE IS CONSENSUS IN MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE FOR MAX PRECIP TOTALS DAY 1 FROM IN THE VICINITY OF
NORTHERN MD/SOUTHEASTERN PA---ACROSS MUCH OF NJ---SOUTHEAST NY-NYC
METRO AREA AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE COULD BE A PERIOD
OF TRAINING OR SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS IN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS THESE REGIONS.  WHILE THESE AREAS
HAVE BEEN VERY DRY AND FFG VALUES ARE HIGH---ISOLATED RUNOFF
ISSUES MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS OF TRAINING---ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
URBAN CORRIDOR FROM DC/BALTIMORE---INTO PHL---NYC AND BOS.  AREAL
AVERAGE .50-1"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS---WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2-4" WHERE TRAINING OCCURS.

LOWER MS VALLEY---TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS

ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF
ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF---SUPPORTING A SECOND NORTHEASTWARD
SURGE OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST---INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
PRECIP SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AXIS OF MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES---STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WELL
DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE.  WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL
SCENARIO---THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE QPF AXES AMONG THE
MODELS.  THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST TO THE NORTHWEST--WITH NEARLY ALL
OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD AXIS.
 DAY 1 QPF WENT WITH THE MAJORITY AXIS SOLUTION---WITH DETAILS
CLOSEST TO THE HI RES ARW AND HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS.  ADDITIONAL
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID TO UPPER TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY.

NORTHERN PLAINS

THE CLOSED LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE ND/SD/MN BORDER WILL MOVE
ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD DAY 1 INTO CENTRAL MN.  THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WHICH WILL SUPPORT A PERSISTENT COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION AREA AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FROM EASTERN MT/FAR NORTHEAST WY---ACROSS SD...ND AN INTO WESTERN
MN.  ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWS POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN WY/FAR
NORTHEAST WY INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND AND SD.  SEE THE QPFHSD
FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO FAR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA

THE NEXT AREA OF STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL
RAPIDLY APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT---MOVING INLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY FROM THE WASHINGTON-OREGON CASCADES---WESTWARD TO THE
WASHINGTON-OREGON COAST RANGE AND AS FAR SOUTH AS FAR NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA.  THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF THE HEIGHT
FALLS/ASSOCIATED FRONT AND PW VALUES NEAR OR ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVY TOTALS.  DAY 1
QPF IS DEPICTING MODERATE TOTALS IN THE .25-.50"+ RANGE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 30/12Z
 0.01 473619 481633 492650 501667 509685 518705 527728 532742
      535748 536756 536786 535798 535811 531835 530839 529847
      530862 531894 531899 532902 533910 538921 541925 544933
      544941 544946 546949 546966 547973 547983 550009 549016
      548020 544028 536046 534051 531054 529059 527060 524060
      522062 519062 511066 507068 504068 498069 493070 490071
      485070 474069 461067 457069 453075 451078 448078 446076
      442072 436071 433071 434069 441066 443062 440058 434059
      432061 429064 424063 424058 423053 421048 422041 426032
      427981 424968 423961 424952 428944 431940 435937 442922
      446920 448916 452913 452917 455930 461928 469925 472916
      473907 472900 471892 469885 466872 463860 459847 458830
      457826 455827 453830 447836 438837 433838 430837 414831
      409832 405834 401835 398838 388852 382861 375870 364885
      360894 355901 342917 322943 312955 307962 302969 295974
      290976 287978 286981 284976 283968 282963 280951 274944
      273938 270933 273923 279908 283902 288894 290884 292876
      299859 302854 305849 311841 323825 346796 354784 363769
      366765 365763 362764 358765 355768 350773 343779 326793
      322796 317798 310803 300804 290804 285802 281800 288795
      295791 302787 316777 338753 345746 352740 367727 375719
      383711 389704 394696 397688 394686 391681
 0.01 391681 390679 390677 390674 389672 389670 389668 388665
      388663 388661 388660 389658 389656 389655 390653 390651
      390649 390648 390646
 0.01 535209 536204 534201 530196 520188 513186 511183 507182
      496171 494168 491168 486167 483175 481178 481183 482186
      483192 478200 473204 468207 461204 458204 455206 452211
      446212 439212 432209 425205 423207 423210 424214 422217
      420220 418221 412223 407226 402231 396236 387245 379254
      374259 372266 370268 371272 378275 382276 385274 390270
      401266 406265 410261 416258 423257 426255 428259 429267
      430274 434279 444287 452292 458297 469307 479316 483320
      490323 495321 500315 504308 508299 514285 520269 521260
      522256 521250 513235 506224 500212 504205 507205 509206
      524215 530214 535209
 0.01 485235 486233 485231 483231 482232 483233 483235 484235
      485235
 0.01 474111 475105 473103 470103 466105 458103 455103 453098
      452095 450095 447098 443094 441094 440097 438097 428087
      425086 425090 427094 431097 434100 433103 430104 428106
      428111 431111 435110 440111 443115 451122 454121 458123
      461123 461126 455132 452132 450136 449141 446144 444155
      448163 448173 450177 449180 447181 443181 440185 440191
      438194 438198 441200 443203 447202 452193 455187 461181
      460178 456176 454172 456167 461163 465162 468160 469150
      468143 469135 470120 474111
 0.01 455808 453791 449780 442773 438775 433774 428775 422777
      414783 419792 421795 424796 429798 438801 446804 450806
      454810 455808
 0.01 429187 429185 429184 427184 426187 425188 424189 425189
      426189 428188 429187
 0.01 421159 422155 423150 423145 423141 422140 421143 419145
      418149 417153 415156 415160 417162 419161 421159
 0.01 410152 408151 406151 404153 402155 402158 404156 406157
      406156 408154 410152 410152
 0.01 417067 418062 416061 410063 407065 405063 407061 406055
      399054 393059 385070 381072 377078 377082 379085 385088
      389088 389085 386081 385079 386077 388079 392080 393082
      396087 399080 404074 406073 410074 414074 416071 417067
 0.01 408112 409108 409103 408100 405107 400110 394111 389113
      384115 384122 390121 394119 399116 404116 407114 408112
 0.01 370055 368052 363052 359053 356055 357058 359062 357064
      360069 364070 366066 368061 368057 370055
 0.01 332101 332094 332086 331079 327080 322082 317084 315086
      313090 312096 312103 315108 322109 326109 327107 330103
      332101
 0.01 334058 334056 332055 330055 329055 327055 326055 326057
      326059 328060 330060 332058 334058 334058
 0.25 456625 463634 472644 479655 486668 489674 492682 492692
      492695 493700 497709 501715 509730 514743 517750 519745
      522746 525754 525764 524772 526783 526796 524808 523813
      520815 517822 515830 514851 514861 513868 511875 508884
      508926 507931 504934 499934 494929 489923 487919 487913
      485902 486882 486872 487865 489856 491849 493842 494833
      493822 493817 495817 498819 500818 501812 500804 502796
      502790 505788 507780 506768 502761 499765 494766 489763
      485764 482770 476773 470774 468777 465777 461772 452758
      447752 443753 442756 438762 430762 427761 424761 422763
      417769 403788 395798 392804 391810 391813 394816 396819
      395823 387834 382841 379848 371860 364869 357881 343901
      334911 329916 323920 317924 311929 297933 285931 284925
      286917 285913 286909 288906 295897 303884 305881 304879
      300877 299874 315853 321844 329834 332829 336824 346817
      358808 368798 373792 377785 383772 391747 396735 399729
      400721 400711 401704 405688 406682 407678 410669 416655
      418648 419644 418638
 0.25 513269 514264 514260 513252 510244 507237 501225 497220
      493219 493224 493231 496238 503252 484239 476229 463230
      457231 452233 447236 445239 446243 452246 459247 466252
      460255 456259 459265 463270 470274 481281 486285 489294
      491300 494303 498303 502299 506291 509287 510281 511273
      513269
 0.25 520983 520973 519966 517958 515955 512954 509957 505962
      500962 496960 492960 486962 481964 477963 472959 468955
      463953 457952 453950 449952 448959 447968 445976 442983
      440989 440994 443002 445010 451020 456025 462028 472033
      477035 484034 503020 507017 511014 515007 516999 517991
      520983
 0.25 472218 469216 463215 455216 447218 440220 432223 430224
      433229 438230 442229 446228 449225 453223 455224 459227
      463226 470220 472218
 0.25 360745 356744 352747 345752 339759 333765 327770 325774
      325782 328782 330781 333778 338771 344765 350759 355753
      360745
 0.25 338852 338849 336850 333852 331854 329856 328858 326860
      324861 326863 330861 331859 333858 336856 337854 338852
 0.25 325863 324861 322863 322864 322865 324864 325863
 0.50 450627 455633 462641 473655 475659 478667 478672 478681
      479688 478697 476702 472705 468709 467712 464717 464723
      464730 462733 458737 453738 448737 443739 439743 438748
      435753 433754 431752 427750 422752 416758 412767 406773
      398779 394782 393788 393794 390800 384809 380821 379831
      375841 372851 368859 362866 355874 343893 338900 332906
      316915 309921 304922 299925 295926 292924 290922 290918
      291911 290907 300893 312880 326868 334861 342852 344843
      343837 339840 326852 313866 309870 306870 307868 313858
      318853 324846 336833 340830 345829 352821 357818 359821
      361822 365818 368814 368809 369804 371799 374796 385782
      388776 389771 392765 393759 400737 403728 405717 406705
      408695 409689 410683 411677 414672 429655 431650 432645
      431638 434632
 0.50 506284 507280 507276 505268 503263 499258 493247 489243
      486243 483245 480243 479235 478233 475232 470236 469242
      472247 481256 487267 493278 496283 498285 502286 506284
 0.50 505980 504979 502979 500980 499982 498980 497980 497981
      498982 499984 500985 502986 504986 504985 505983 505982
      505980
 0.50 484010 484007 484005 483004 482004 481007 480008 478009
      480010 481010 483010 484010
 1.00 503275 502272 501269 499266 498263 497260 495257 493254
      490255 491259 492262 493265 495267 497270 499274 500275
      503275
 1.00 467684 465665 463658 457653 454655 454663 452670 448676
      443679 439684 436689 429689 422689 419691 414696 412704
      410718 406731 402745 398758 396765 397769 403765 407759
      412749 418735 424725 430723 437719 443717 447712 448710
      446707 452703 458700 462696 465690 467684
 1.00 375830 373829 371830 368833 359842 344856 337863 328871
      312884 305890 298899 297905 299909 300915 305911 320898
      327891 335882 341875 350867 356860 363852 370842 372838
      374831 375830
 1.50 418714 418711 416712 413719 411725 409730 407738 406743
      405747 407752 410747 412741 415735 418728 417721 418714
 1.50 370838 370837 368838 367840 368840 370838 370838
 1.50 361850 359848 357849 354851 347857 337867 325878 313887
      302897 300899 301903 304903 308900 320890 331880 343870
      354859 361850

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