Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 061839
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 PM EDT SUN JUL 06 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 07/0000 UTC THRU JUL 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF AMPLIFYING THE H5 TROF THRU THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD..WITH
LEAD S/WV ENERGY WITHIN THIS TROF HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE EASTERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING..WHILE
ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY NOW UPSTREAM IN NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASK DIGS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE LEAD S/WV
ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE THE MUCH HIGHER
MOISTURE/AXIS OF HIGHER PWS TO WORK WITH..SO EXPECT ORGANIZED
FRONTAL/PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IN WHAT WILL BE A FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE LIFT/HIGH MOISTURE
REGIME.  THE PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE..HOWEVER..WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE
RANGE..AS PER MUCH OF THE MODEL QPF GUIDANCE.  LESS MOISTURE AND A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM S/WV
ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY..AGAIN RESULTING
IN MOSTLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.


...SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION...

AGAIN..NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS PERIOD IN THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/4 CORNERS REGON.  THE CLOSED UPPER
HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE PW VALUES REMAINING IN PLACE TO ITS SOUTH.  THIS HIGH
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND WEAK H5 S/WVS ALSO ON ITS SOUTH SIDE
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED AND WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION..MAINLY LATER MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  HAVE TRIED
TO TIE IN THE MORE ORGANIZED AND MODERATE CONVECTION/RAINS TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
VICINITY OF THE H5 VORT SHEAR AXIS.


...IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS INTO THE FL PENINSULA...

THE INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED H5 S/WV OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
IS FORECAST SIMILARLY BY THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST DURING THE PERIOD.  WITH THE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
LESS ONSHORE WITH TIME..THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINS SHOULD ALSO
REMAIN JUST ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE..WITH ANY GREATER
THAN 0.50 INCH TOTALS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NC COAST.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 551017 551012 550006 546000 540995 536992 533991 530987
      526981 517965 513958 506952 493944 489943 485940 479935
      469924 458915 453911 446910 441911 438913 432918 429938
      426947 422955 418963 415963 412961 408958 407949 406945
      405938 418926 423919 425911 431899 442885 452875 460872
      468871 476875 479878 481882 485889 490898 500914 505919
      510924 520929 536934 541930 546925 544919 544914 540899
      537887 537880 535874 533864 530854 526833 524819 523815
      522809 521797 520795 519789 518779 516771 516764 510742
      506722 500695 497681 494673 489665 484664 481665 476666
      473668 470671 468673 459682 448693 440699 434705 425718
      415736 409751 406759 404769 399786 394798 390806 387813
      384822 383832 379854 377867 376871 376878 375886 375898
      375911 377920 379931 382939 384945 389950 393958 396967
      403982 406991 408995 406999 406007 409015 412019 414024
      418034 422042 425046 428049 437051 441051 443049 445046
      445041 445033 448032 452032 457033 460035 475042 480044
      481049 482054 482061 481091 480097 482102 483105 483109
      482116 482126 483131 486134 488137 493138 496138 498136
      500133 501130 502119 503102 503091 502080 502074 501070
      501062 500056 500049 499041 499037 502037 507037 510036
      518035 525037 528039 533040 538035 541033 543030 544025
      551017
 0.01 453083 453076 450073 447070 443068 440066 436066 433070
      432073 436076 441077 444079 449082 453083 453083
 0.01 410112 411101 410094 408093 406096 403097 401095 400092
      398087 400082 403076 406073 411073 414062 413055 407053
      398052 391049 388047 382046 372045 366046 360049 357057
      359063 361072 355077 351079 348079 346077 342071 339068
      338063 336056 335053 331053 327053 325054 322052 317051
      312056 308062 304066 299065 295063 288059 285057 281057
      275058 267059 260056 249048 245045 240044 235045 232047
      230052 229061 229065 231067 234074 237081 241088 245093
      252098 257102 262105 275114 288123 291126 296127 304128
      312130 318133 330142 340144 345145 347148 357150 364153
      367160 366169 362177 361181 362184 363188 366190 373195
      376196 381195 381188 382177 384173 386171 387160 386153
      384144 386132 390125 393122 397120 399118 405116 410112
 0.01 377701 376693 374689 373686 371684 367682 362680 357680
      352682 347686 340693 333701 323719 318728 313737 308746
      304751 300755 293761 287768 272784 266790 257795 248801
      244805 241809 242816 243820 251826 256829 262830 271833
      281835 286835 291834 295834 301832 305828 308824 310820
      312816 315805 333792 340786 346777 351769 356757 364738
      372715 377701
 0.01 309954 308949 307945 301939 297939 294943 288949 284956
      283959 282966 282972 285975 288977 292975 299971 304964
      308956 309954
 0.25 513879 512869 510860 508847 507835 505803 504791 501780
      498759 498746 495739 491726 487718 482712 474714 467712
      461712 454717 448723 443730 437736 427748 423756 421762
      419767 420773 422783 421791 417800 408815 404822 401827
      397834 391840 388843 386847 383856 381864 381875 379894
      379900 380907 382914 385914 387912 388906 388893 389883
      392876 396871 398869 402867 408866 412867 414870 414873
      411893 410900 411908 413912 416912 420906 423899 430883
      435875 441869 451857 455852 458846 461837 461830 459827
      458823 459820 466814 469814 473815 475818 477822 481831
      484836 488844 490854 490859 492866 494876 498883 503888
      507890 511888 513879
 0.25 482024 482018 481014 480008 480004 480001 477997 477989
      476976 475971 473967 462954 453942 446938 442940 441945
      442955 445966 448974 453981 457988 462996 466001 470009
      478024 481026 482024
 0.25 362722 359715 355713 352713 348714 345717 340724 333737
      325752 317764 312772 309780 305785 302787 299787 291791
      284795 279799 276802 271803 265803 260805 256809 257813
      255814 258816 267818 274821 280823 285824 289824 294820
      294816 292813 295810 302807 307801 314797 323794 329790
      335786 341779 346773 349767 352758 358741 361732 362722
 0.25 356138 356133 355129 352122 345105 344096 341089 336082
      334079 331081 331090 328097 323096 320093 315087 310082
      307080 303078 287072 278071 270072 265072 261070 255065
      248061 242060 240063 240067 242071 246078 250083 256088
      263092 270097 275101 283104 291107 297109 300111 307115
      314116 320112 324111 327112 335112 340117 347133 351137
      356138
 0.50 499824 498816 496809 494800 493796 491790 489786 487784
      484784 484789 486796 486801 486806 489813 491820 493828
      495829 498827 499824
 0.50 458800 456796 454794 451795 441801 435802 430802 426803
      422808 419813 417818 417823 419825 419828 415832 415836
      414839 412846 412850 413852 420860 420870 418877 416889
      415897 415898 418898 423889 428878 435868 441859 446850
      447843 445838 442834 442829 444824 447818 454810 457804
      458800
 0.50 459966 459964 457959 456957 455954 453952 450950 447952
      448957 449959 450964 452966 454968 457969 459966
 0.50 448743 448739 446737 444736 440737 437741 433747 430752
      428757 427762 431764 437762 441762 445756 447750 448743
 0.50 356734 356730 355725 352725 349727 342739 339744 336749
      328761 321771 320779 320786 324789 331786 336782 341777
      347767 351753 355739 356734
 0.50 306100 307095 306091 304087 301084 296081 287079 280078
      277079 274081 272084 273088 278093 285097 290100 299103
      303102 306100
 0.50 267085 268083 266081 265080 263080 262080 263081 264082
      264083 265084 266085 267085
 1.00 345761 345759 344758 342758 341759 340760 339761 339762
      338764 338766 340767 342767 343766 344763 345762 345761
 1.00 339775 337773 335774 333775 332776 330778 330779 332781
      332780 334780 336778 337776 339775

$$




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