Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 261815
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 27/0000 UTC THRU MAR 28/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...GREAT LAKES...ERN OH VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST...

WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS FCST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT ENEWD FROM THE
MIDWEST INTO THE ERN GT LAKES BY EARLY MON WITH MUCH WEAKER
REMNANTS MOVING ACRS NEW ENGLAND BY LATE MON.  BROAD SW FLOW AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERY CONDS AHEAD OF IT
THROUGH THE ERN OH VALLEY/APLCNS OVERNIGHT WHILE ALLOWING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT ACRS NRN VA TO GRADUALLY RETURN NWD THROUGH PA BY
MRNG.  BEST MSTR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF LOW/MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE
SHOULD SUPPORT MDTLY HEAVY PCPN AMOUNTS FROM PARTS OF CNTL PA INTO
NEW ENGLAND.  THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A DRY
OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD WITH THE 12Z NAM..UKMET AND GEFS MEAN
SHOWING GOOD CONSENSUS FOR AXIS OF .50 TO NEAR 1 INCH RAINS  HERE.
 SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED EARLY IN THE PD COULD LEAD
TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN RATES THROUGH PARTS OF WV INTO CNTL
PA WHERE LOW FFG VALUES COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLD RUNOFF CONCERNS.
IN ADDITION..A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF PCPN
SHIELD AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND.  PLEASE SEE QPFHSD FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.


...UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACRS THE CNTL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY...

SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE SUN AFTN AND
OVERNIGHT ACRS THE CNTL/SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO WELL DEFINED
UPPER LOW MOVING RAPIDLY EWD OUT OF CO.  THIS SYSTEM FOLLOWING
CLOSELY ON THE HEELS OF EXITING SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
INITIALLY BE MORE OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN RATHER SHALLOW
MSTR PROFILES..THOUGH BY EARLY SUN NIGHT FOCUSED LOW LEVEL MSTR
CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF ASSOCD SFC LOW MOVING ACRS OK COULD LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
ACRS SE OK/NE TX INTO AR...WITH THE HRRR..WRF ARW..AND NSSL WRF
ALL CLUSTERED WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OR MORE IN
THIS AREA.  WITH TIME...EXPECT RAINS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED IN THE DEFORMATION AREA WRAPPING AROUND THE EAST TO
NORTH SIDE OF THE 7H/5H CIRC.  THERE IS A BIT MORE SPREAD IN THE
MODELS HERE LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH PLACEMENT AND
AMOUNTS..WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON HOW ORGANIZED ACTIVITY FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH REMAINS OVERNIGHT.  FOR THIS REASON..TOOK MORE OF AN
ENSEMBLE APCH TOWARD QPF THERE.  BY MONDAY...WELL ESTABLISHED SWLY
LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF ASSOCD COLD FRONT..SHOULD LEAD TO MODEST
SHWER/TSTM COVERAGE FROM WRN KY/WRN TN SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING WITH COMBINATION OF BETTER INSTABILITY
AND UPR FORCING SUGGESTING HEAVIER QPF WILL FOCUS ACRS KY/TN.


...PAC NW THROUGH NW/NRN CA INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN...

NEXT IN THE SERIES OF S/WV TROFS WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW
SUN EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL EMBDD VORT ENERGY HELPING TO MAINTAIN
SHOWERY CONDS ALONG THE PAC NW COAST ON MON WITH POST FRONTAL
ONSHORE FLOW.  STG JET ENERGY DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF
WILL ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO SHARPEN INTO THE GT BASIN BY LATE MON
WHICH WILL WILL AID FRONTAL LIFT TOWARD THE WASATCH RANGE OF UT
DURING THE AFTN.  MODEL HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS REASONABLE
SIMILAR WITH DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.  AS A RESULT..MANUAL
QPF MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CONTINUITY. PLEASE REFER TO
PRODUCTS FROM THE WPC WINTER WEATHER DESK FOR WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL DETAILS.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 441630 451635 462641 481654 499668 504670 508675 512679
      516685 518693 519701 519714 519725 520734 521737 522743
      523752 520760 514774 513777 512782 510788 509791 509796
      507805 505823 504841 501848 499852 498856 492867 489874
      486879 483885 481888 480892 477900 475907 473913 472915
      469913 462913 461903 461898 459893 454891 451889 448889
      442886 429862 427857 425853 425848 423844 420844 418842
      414842 410843 408845 413849 418855 421860 426875 427884
      427890 425893 420894 419904 416919 412933 409940 406945
      402950 400952 399957 396962 397970 397980 398987 397998
      394005 390009 385011 377011 372010 369008 368005 366999
      365992 363985 359980 353976 351975 346975 337975 313984
      306983 306977 309970 310964 315953 313951 311954 307958
      301962 299962 299959 297951 297943 299934 301928 307915
      310909 312903 313896 314889 321877 324872 328869 339861
      343851 344844 341839 332832 333828 336828 338825 341825
      345824 347820 350816 357805 366795 370793 373790 374786
      374783 375780 379774 385764 391749 401725 408697 410690
      411682 415669 419654 420637
 0.01 517251 520235 520217 520204 519200 520196 518191 516185
      519179 523173 521167 518164 511154 508151 504148 496140
      488134 486130 481129 475128 470130 465128 463124 460118
      459113 459109 462109 468110 453098 435095 432092 426091
      427094 429096 429101 428103 424101 419090 418078 415073
      413067 410063 407060 404058 402061 401069 397072 397076
      395080 393078 392075 393060 385065 385069 383072 381074
      379072 376068 373068 372072 372079 374082 381088 383092
      388093 386097 382101 380103 378101 378098 376098 370104
      361124 364128 368131 370137 371141 371147 374150 380158
      381170 383177 386180 391183 394183 397188 396192 394194
      384192 374188 370185 364182 357181 354182 349185 347191
      347195 348197 351198 359193 364192 366194 367197 368201
      372205 377208 380211 380217 379218 376218 367213 363210
      357209 356215 358221 366227 367234 370238 375240 379243
      390247 395249 398253 401256 406258 416257 427257 436257
      442258 448259 454261 459265 468268 489276 495279 500282
      505280 508275 511271 513263 517251
 0.01 458205 458202 456202 455204 456206 457207 458205
 0.01 357848 356846 354846 352848 354850 356849 357848
 0.01 352800 352795 350795 346794 339797 336800 331811 326816
      321817 308817 301818 298823 298826 299828 305828 313827
      318824 328818 337811 347805 352800
 0.25 507243 507238 506231 502223 497215 491208 487206 482206
      474209 467212 459212 426217 423219 422223 422227 418229
      414227 413218 405212 399205 391200 384198 382200 384205
      386208 390212 397216 406221 407223 406227 403230 400232
      399239 400243 406244 425249 442247 458247 468247 477250
      482250 485254 491261 493264 498266 500261 498257 494248
      493243 494241 497243 503247 506245 507243
 0.25 502726 501722 499721 495720 493716 494708 496706 498706
      500705 499701 495694 491689 488689 484690 480693 474689
      467677 460664 456660 451659 437658 430659 426664 425673
      424681 421697 405752 399767 393779 390785 386788 386791
      383797 380803 379807 381810 387812 394810 399808 405809
      412806 416800 417792 417785 418778 421773 423770 426767
      431766 444762 452760 454764 455768 459785 463805 465812
      467821 469829 472839 474841 477841 483837 489826 491819
      494810 494803 494800 496795 497777 497767 497757 498742
      497734 499732 501729 502726
 0.25 487233 486231 486230 485230 483228 482228 481229 481231
      482232 483233 484234 486234 487233
 0.25 488170 488164 485161 479155 473150 466146 458145 454142
      446145 442144 440142 437143 435154 434160 436164 443169
      447175 449180 446181 443182 440185 439188 440192 442195
      450193 455187 460180 461172 463168 466166 475167 482171
      487172 488170
 0.25 416118 415113 411112 409110 408105 405105 402109 394112
      387115 384117 382122 382128 384131 394134 397137 402138
      406136 409133 413125 416118
 0.25 403913 402898 400892 397888 392887 386887 384883 383875
      382860 380853 378848 376847 373847 370851 364858 355865
      350867 346866 341868 338871 332879 327889 325893 324898
      329892 336884 343878 346879 347882 344895 344901 342908
      344911 347911 354911 357914 359918 357921 353924 348926
      343924 337925 332928 330932 329939 330946 329954 326965
      328969 331971 334970 344967 354965 359965 362969 367979
      373986 377989 381986 384981 386977 388971 389962 389956
      391950 393938 395932 398928 401919 403913
 0.25 365809 365807 364807 363807 362809 362810 364810 365809
 0.50 484217 485215 485212 484211 482211 481211 480211 479211
      477211 476212 475213 474214 474216 475217 476217 478217
      480217 482217 483217 484217
 0.50 479241 479238 479237 478235 477235 476234 474233 473234
      472236 472237 472239 473241 475242 476243 478242 479241
 0.50 488790 489781 487773 484758 479747 476743 473740 469739
      466742 465757 467764 470769 477777 481786 483804 484809
      486803 488790
 0.50 470218 463216 454218 445217 438219 430221 426223 430226
      432229 436230 438228 443227 451225 455224 460226 464226
      467222 470218
 0.50 465239 466236 466233 463233 462234 457234 453234 449234
      445235 445241 449241 454240 457239 461238 463239 465239
 0.50 464156 462154 458155 456156 454158 451158 448157 445157
      443159 445161 447163 450164 453164 456163 458161 459160
      462158 464156
 0.50 453174 453173 452171 451170 451171 451173 453174 453174
 0.50 449694 446687 443677 439672 436671 431672 428679 427687
      427697 429704 426713 422718 418726 417734 413741 410748
      404762 402781 393791 388798 386801 386806 389806 392804
      399800 405796 409790 411782 412772 425745 426749 428754
      434758 437756 439753 442745 444736 444730 443725 445717
      450711 449704 448701 449694
 0.50 429243 428239 425237 423236 420234 416234 414234 411234
      410237 410240 413242 417242 420243 422243 426243 429243
 0.50 401214 400211 398210 397209 396208 395207 394206 392204
      390203 389203 388203 388206 390208 391210 393210 395211
      396212 396213 398214 399215 401214
 0.50 402123 402120 402118 401117 399116 397116 396116 394117
      394118 392119 390121 390122 389123 390123 391124 393124
      395124 397124 398125 399125 400125 402123
 0.50 390938 389931 387928 384925 380924 377926 375929 370937
      369943 371947 369952 366954 365961 366967 367972 371974
      375975 379972 380969 382963 384953 386949 388945 390938
 0.50 373866 374860 373857 371856 364863 359870 356877 354881
      353888 357896 358903 360907 362910 366909 368905 369900
      370889 372878 373866
 0.50 366936 366929 362927 358928 353930 349933 345935 340932
      335932 333936 332942 331956 331963 331967 334968 340967
      345965 354961 361955 364952 365945 365938 366936
 1.00 346943 345940 343941 340943 338945 337948 336952 335954
      335958 336960 337964 339960 340958 341955 342952 343947
      344945 346943

$$




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