Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 260608
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
107 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 26/1200 UTC THRU JAN 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...MID ATLC INTO NEW ENGLAND...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF COASTAL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACK
GENLY NWD TO A POSITION SOUTH OF NANTUCKET BY TUES MRNG...AS
ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED FROM PARENT LOW TRACKING EWD FROM KY THIS
MRNG.  DESPITE THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS..THERE HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT SHIFT EWD WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN AMOUNTS WITH THE EVOLVING
COMMA HEAD FEATURE AND THIS IDEA WAS GENLY ACCEPTED GIVEN GENL
CONSENSUS OF 00Z GUID. STG VORT ASSOCD WITH JET ENERGY DRYING ACRS
THE FL PANHANDLE REGION IS FCST TO SWEEP WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLC
COAST BEFORE GETTING SWUNG BACK TO THE NORTH SIDE OF EVOLVING 5H
CIRC MON NIGHT...AS A RESULT..EXPECT STRONGEST FORCING TO OCCUR
ACRS LONG ISLAND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MON NIGHT TIME
FRAME AS ABOVE MENTIONED VORT ENERGY ENHANCES RAPID DEEPENING OF
SFC LOW WITH ANOMALOUSLY STG ELY MSTR FLUX VALUES SUPPORTED BY ELY
85H WINDS IN EXCESS OF 90 KTS POINTED TOWARD THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST. A FAIRLY TIGHT E/W GRADIENT AS FAR AS QPF TOTALS IS
EXPECTED IN THE EVOLVING COMMA HEAD WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCH LIQUID
AMOUNTS...MAINLY SNOW..EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WRN LONG ISLAND INTO
ERN MA THIS PD.  AGAIN MANUAL QPFS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EWD FROM
CONTINUITY BASED ON 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS.  FARTHER SOUTH ACRS THE
MID ATLC REGION...THOUGHT THE GFS WAS OVERDONE WITH AMOUNTS ACRS
PARTS OF MD/NRN VA AS IT SPINS UP A FAIRLY TIGHT 7H CIRC AS PARENT
CIRC EMERGES OFF THE MTNS OF WV/VA EARLY MON.  OTHER MODELS ARE
MUCH WEAKER OR OPEN WITH THE 7H TROF AND AS A RESULT..THEIR QPFS
WERE MUCH LOWER.  COULD STILL SEE SOME BANDED FEATURES WITH
HANGBACK TROFINESS..SIMILAR TO NORLUND TROF FEATURE MORE OFTEN
SEEN OVER NEW ENGLAND..BUT THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE OFTEN HARD
TO NAIL DOWN EXACT LOCATION..AND WHILE DID TRY TO TAKE THIS INTO
ACCOUNT..KEPT AMOUNTS LIGHTER AND BROADER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING THE WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST SUITE OF WWD
PRODUCTS.


...SOUTHWEST...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PIVOTING TOWARD NORTHWEST BAJA AND SOUTHERN CA WILL PROVIDE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE AND ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE (PWATS INCREASING TO 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL) INTO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SWRN U.S. (SOUTHERN
CA-AZ). THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT BEGINS TO
OPEN UP AND LIFT TOWARD THE N BY TUES MRNG...BUT THE COMBO
INCREASING MSTR AND SUPPORT ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SOME NEEDED LIGHT
TO SPOTTY MDT RAINS ACRS SRN CA/AZ.  NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NOTED
IN MODEL TRENDS..SO THEREFORE KEPT CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FCST
MOST AREAS.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 451627 453629 455633 458647 460650 461657 459669 457677
      456686 453704 451712 447720 438736 434742 432746 433751
      436768 439777 442786 431800 418808 414814 410819 399830
      390831 387832 385834 382837 364858 359859 358856 359846
      352847 349847 347847 346844 348837 351830 359817 363811
      361801 358797 355795 346792 342792 339791 331788 328789
      326791 321796 314800 307804 291812 278821 269829 264835
      259840 254846 245849 243848 241844 239837 238835 239830
      242823 242819 237818 233818 234814 236810 235804 238795
      247785 254775 263762 271746 274739 278732 284722 292712
      300704
 0.01 540205 539191 537183 535182 532172 530170 529167 524163
      520161 518161 516163 513167 512171 514181 515188 518192
      520199 521205 522212 523217 528229 533235
 0.01 522261 522255 519249 516245 514240 513234 508230 505226
      504220 503218 501215 496213 493215 491219 492226 494232
      495238 493244 489240 484241 480239 477235 475233 473234
      468237 465241 462245 462249 461255 463261 466263 470266
      477269 481268 484271 490281 493285 498288 504290 508287
      514280 520270 522261
 0.01 534899 533879 533870 531859 530853 527848 526844 524844
      521842 519840 516840 510841 505842 502844 500847 497850
      493855 488855 482854 471855 460861 450865 448867 445867
      440868 427869 422867 414867 410865 403865 394862 383860
      377859 369860 370863 374868 377871 380873 389879 394882
      396884 395888 394891 398894 402896 408896 409900 407902
      405903 404907 403910 404912 408917 416922 421924 426924
      449930 460931 471935 475935 480938 489947 504957 510957
      512957 514955 518951 522944 523939 526934 530923 533910
      532902 534899
 0.01 391202 388194 384186 382176 384160 385150 384142 375127
      371121 365115 358110 355108 350103 342090 337085 332079
      322067 320064 319060 313051 302044 286039 288044 293051
      296054 297059 299063 300066 300070 297072 294070 289064
      284059 279055 265045 258043 245041 241041 238043 236047
      235051 237058 242064 255072 261077 269083 273088 277096
      279100 278105 273110 271112 266112 258109 250105 245103
      239104 237107 237112 241118 250128 260141 265146 268147
      270149 276150 286152 296155 300154 304156 309160 313161
      316165 321172 326178 329183 331188 333195 334200 334204
      336213 337216 341217 344210 347205 349204 351205 358211
      362211 364204 362197 364194 369195 376200 381206 384208
      388206 391202
 0.25 421637 426641 428650 431658 433662 437664 440665 443668
      444679 443693 432724 417745 417760 420769 422771 423777
      422782 419787 413793 407794 400797 395798 391796 390792
      383788 379783 375776 377764 377761 380762 387765 392767
      396766 394763 389760 388755 387751 382747 377744 372742
      368741 365744 359748 355750 353753 345763 337771 326779
      312788 306790 299792 293793 288789 285775 286760 287754
      290749 297739 305729 315717 323708 333700 337696 341690
      346685 353679 361672 370661 377654 385648
 0.25 517267 518262 518260 516257 514253 512252 511252 508254
      507258 507264 507266 508270 511271 513271 515269 517267
 0.25 504273 504272 503270 501268 501267 500265 499263 497262
      496262 497265 498267 499269 500269 501272 502273 504274
      504273
 0.25 370181 369175 367169 363165 358165 353175 349177 346172
      345166 342162 340159 339155 338150 336145 333140 327133
      319125 310118 306115 301114 297117 295122 294128 299133
      307138 318144 321147 323152 326157 326165 331168 335169
      343175 348183 355184 361184 370181 370181
 0.25 355129 352124 349119 347114 344109 339105 335105 333106
      332110 333112 338116 343119 346125 349130 353130 355129
 0.50 414639 421645 423653 425659 431666 437671 440675 440682
      437695 435706 432715 421733 415738 408745 404748 400749
      396747 394741 392735 390731 386729 381730 370734 360740
      353746 348752 334765 328770 319775 314774 310772 307769
      303764 302760 302755 306746 315729 319722 326714 340700
      345695 351688 368675 375669 381663 384657 389651 398644
 0.50 327144 326139 323136 321132 318129 315126 310125 306127
      303129 305133 308135 312137 317140 321142 324144 327144
 1.00 430699 430693 430687 427681 425678 419674 416667 412658
      410655 405654 398658 392662 380674 369684 363689 357695
      352700 348705 339719 335724 330729 326736 321744 319747
      319751 323756 327757 332756 338751 348740 353734 361731
      375726 384725 389724 393725 398731 403736 409735 415729
      423715 428707 430699
 1.50 422701 422694 417693 412687 407678 405675 401671 399672
      394675 388680 374692 367698 361704 352720 354721 360719
      365718 368719 372720 378720 385719 387719 390715 394716
      396719 399722 404724 409723 412720 416710 418707 421704
      422701
 1.50 335741 335740 333741 332741 333742 335741 335741
 2.00 407698 406694 405691 404689 402687 399685 398688 397690
      395692 393694 394699 396700 398702 400703 402704 404703
      405701 407698

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.