Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 280701
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 28/1200 UTC THRU AUG 29/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY--LOWER MO VALLEY

WELL DEFINED HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD DAY 1
INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE
QPF AXIS IN THE AREA OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID TO UPPER
MS VALLEY.  DAY 1 QPF CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SOLUTIONS ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE QPF SPREAD GIVEN MODEL BIASES OF BEING TOO
FAR NORTH WITH OVERRUNNING CONVECTIVE EVENTS---ESPECIALLY IN THE
WARM SEASON.  THESE INCLUDE THE NSSL WRF---CMC GEM---GFS---NAM
CONEST AND REFORECAST 2 DATA SET.  WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TOTALS IN
THE 1-2" RANGE DEPICTED FROM FAR NORTHERN MO---ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN IA---NORTHWEST IL INTO SOUTHERN WI.

PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LIGHTER TOTALS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  HOWEVER---WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH--1.50-1,75"+---LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DOES ORGANIZE

NORTHERN MN

A SEPARATE MORE NORTHERN STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
PUSHING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN SASK---SOUTHERN MB---CLIPPING FAR
NORTHERN MN AND THE U.P. OF MI. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED
WETTER AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS COMPARED TO ITS 1200 UTC RUN
AND IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE.  MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE IN A REGION OF
WELL DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC
HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF OFF THE PAC
NW/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN A
NEGATIVE TILTED FASHION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY TOWARD
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON COASTS.  MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES IN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD TO THE COAST
RANGES.  UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE LIMITED IN THE SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW---WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS IN
THE .25-.50" RANGE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

FLORIDA---SOUTHEAST AL---SOUTHERN GA

THE ELONGATED UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE SLOWLY DAY 1 OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF.
1.75-2.00"+ PW VALUES TO THE EAST OF THIS TROF WILL KEEP SHOWERY
CONDITIONS FOR FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHERN GA.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS FROM GA INTO NC--WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS
REMAINING OFFSHORE.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 523264 521255 518246 512231 508225 505217 503212 503209
      505205 508204 515209 520216 524221 529224 532221 534215
      537204 538202 539197 536190 532183 527176 519164 514159
      511157 508157 505158 502163 500172 498176 497182 495187
      492188 486192 482198 477201 469204 466204 464208 463211
      460213 446216 432216 424217 422220 420226 417225 415222
      415218 412214 407214 399210 395210 394212 397218 402220
      403223 401227 397228 395229 389228 382232 381235 382239
      384248 375255 364268 362271 361276 360282 362284 393294
      410301 420305 428307 436307 442304 444302 445297 448289
      461254 468254 473256 475259 486268 498280 503286 506288
      509287 514285 518277
 0.01 520952 520922 520889 519865 517855 516840 515835 514827
      514820 513814 511784 510776 509772 507768 504764 499758
      496754 493756 489762 487766 486772 487788 487801 485823
      484832 480824 475820 472818 468818 463819 460821 457824
      457830 457844 459856 453850 444847 442847 441844 441838
      440832 438826 436823 432821 427826 421841 413854 405870
      403878 399886 395895 389905 385911 380919 374923 366927
      359932 355934 352938 350939 348943 345951 341956 337963
      333971 333982 338986 342988 342994 337001 331008 319024
      315030 310037 307039 305044 304057 301065 297070 280071
      275071 270069 264066 248057 240053 236054 233057 235064
      240070 245076 253079 261084 265091 284112 290117 293119
      296118 308107 316106 325110 333115 343116 347116 347113
      344104 340095 337086 331072 330068 331063 334060 337059
      343059 348059 353066 358070 364070 368071 371075 375079
      377080 380079 383079 389080 393078 399076 404075 407073
      410071 412067 412061 410057 407054 402053 385051 377050
      369046 364038 361034 360030 358025 358017 361007 366000
      367997 372995 380992 385989 389986 390983 395975 397970
      400968 407962 412958 418955 422956 425958 431962 437962
      440959 445952 449941 451930 451922 452917 456908 461891
      464890 464896 463903 463909 465921 465930 465937 464947
      463957 463963 465967 466972 467975 469975 480984 484983
      487986 487997 490000 492998 495993 497988 499983 503981
      512980 515974 517967 520952
 0.01 385806 384801 379800 375802 371805 367809 364813 361816
      358821 354824 351828 349832 348838 350842 354840 357837
      360832 365825 372816 380812 385806
 0.01 361729 359712 356709 352708 347710 344715 341720 339724
      334734 328742 325746 321750 313757 308766 306770 302773
      298775 291778 287778 284777 279777 266779 257784 247790
      240797 236807 236811 237818 241828 246839 249842 254844
      263846 277861 284869 288871 294871 300870 305868 310870
      314873 319872 323868 325864 327859 328857 328852 327844
      328837 326833 324828 322822 326812 331803 336793 339788
      340782 340776 342771 355754 358748 360742 361729
 0.25 530208 530199 528192 525187 520183 515179 510178 510183
      512189 515195 519201 521206 526210 530208
 0.25 514266 516262 515256 513249 509238 498214 496211 493211
      487210 477213 475216 476219 478219 485221 486223 486228
      485230 482230 476227 474220 466225 461227 456229 445232
      435235 431236 424235 419233 413232 402233 400234 398239
      400246 404249 406252 403254 393259 384265 376273 374277
      378281 383281 390279 402287 412294 422300 427300 433296
      441289 442281 442273 441267 439262 438259 438256 442252
      451247 462246 472246 478247 484252 492260 495260 496254
      494247 492241 494238 498241 501246 504252 507258 511265
      514266
 0.25 500914 501904 500895 499886 498883 495882 490881 485882
      481879 478879 477882 475889 475897 474907 474917 476937
      476944 477952 479954 482955 488954 492950 495944 499931
      500922 500914
 0.25 448908 448887 449877 447867 438858 436856 432855 427860
      413882 406894 399906 386931 384938 380943 370950 364954
      369955 373954 377957 379960 381961 383963 386963 391960
      397957 403954 409952 415950 430953 436950 440946 441942
      441936 443929 447918 448908
 0.25 322801 321799 318797 312798 304798 297797 284797 281802
      282807 275807 270804 257802 252806 250807 250811 250816
      254821 257827 260830 267832 271834 286854 292856 299857
      303855 304852 303846 297835 292831 286830 279832 275830
      277826 282826 289826 293826 296824 298819 312819 316815
      319811 322801
 0.25 275797 273795 271794 270795 269796 268798 267800 268800
      270800 272800 274799 275797 275797
 0.50 510257 509249 508243 507240 505237 502232 499226 496221
      495220 493225 495231 497237 502242 505247 507253 508256
      510257
 0.50 496919 495909 493904 491901 487896 480892 478902 479906
      480912 479922 479932 480938 482942 488942 492936 495927
      496919
 0.50 461240 462236 460235 457234 455234 452235 450236 448237
      446241 448244 452244 454243 457243 459242 461240
 0.50 436287 438283 437280 436277 432266 431263 426260 417260
      410261 405261 401263 398267 399272 404280 411287 418292
      422295 427295 430294 433290 436287
 0.50 431246 430243 429240 426239 423238 419236 416235 414237
      413240 413243 416246 418247 421249 425249 426249 430248
      431246
 0.50 445899 444884 443879 440874 434867 430866 426869 421876
      416885 412894 407903 399922 395932 397936 395941 391950
      394952 398951 417947 426949 430949 433947 436942 438937
      440925 443913 445901 445899
 0.50 298845 297840 296838 293837 292836 288835 286834 282835
      282838 283842 284844 287846 289846 291847 294848 296847
      298845
 1.00 438906 439897 437888 435883 430878 427879 422884 417896
      412906 408919 405936 404942 407944 410944 424943 431935
      435928 436921 438906
 1.50 434904 434897 433892 430890 427888 422894 418903 415912
      413917 412924 410933 409937 410940 414941 419941 423940
      428932 431928 432923 434911 434904
 2.00 432914 431908 430904 429901 426900 422900 419908 416917
      415920 417924 413931 412935 413938 419937 424933 429926
      431916 432914

$$





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