Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 270634
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 27/1200 UTC THRU SEP 28/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

THINGS ARE UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES..AS THE
MAJOR MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF COMING INTO THE WEST COAST STATES AT
THIS TIME IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF CLOSING OFF A MID LEVEL
CENTER VICINITY OF CENTRAL CA..WITH RAINFALL DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
TROF INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THRU MUCH OF THE GREAT
BASIN AREA.  THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT MASS FIELD-WISE IN TAKING THIS CLOSING OFF H5 LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NV BY SUNDAY MORNING..BUT WITH
SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS MAKING IT WELL INTO THE ROCKIES BY THAT
SAME TIME.  THIS VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AS PER THE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT
FALLS..INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND/OR UPPER
DIFFLEUNCE AND AT LEAST THRU THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING IN VERY HIGH PWS..WILL
LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FROM AZ NORTHWARD
INTO WESTERN MT.  BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE THRU THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED/HEAVIER
CONVECTION THIS REGION..WHILE FARTHER NORTH THRU THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE CELL
TRAINING/REPEATING CELLS IN THE DEEP LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME.  IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN..ISOLATED 1+ INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN AN HOUR OR TWO AND LOCAL 2-3 INCH TOTALS THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD ARE LIKELY..WHILE THE LONGER DURATION EVENT FARTHER NORTH
THRU THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO
AREAL AVERAGE 0.50-1.50+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A RATHER LARGE AREA.
AND FINALLY..FARTHER BACK IN PORTIONS OF NV..PERSISTENT
WRAP-AROUND/COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE RAINS SHOULD PRODUCE LONG
DURATION 0.50-1.00 INCH AMOUNTS IN SPITE OF A LESS FAVORABLE
MOISTURE REGIME.


...FL PENINSULA ALONG THE EASTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST...

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW THRU THE FL PENINSULA SHOULD
SUPPORT ENHANCED CONVECTION/RAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON..IN LINE WITH GENERALLY AGREEABLE MODEL QPFS.
BEGINNING LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT..H5 S/WV ENERGY LIFTING THRU THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
COAST REGION AHEAD OF THE TX H5 TROF WILL COMBINE WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF/HIGHER PWS COMING
INLAND..TO TRIGGER INCREASING CONVECTION FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MS
RIVER OVER INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.  WASN`T READY TO GO WITH
SOME OF THE QPF GUIDANCE WHICH BROUGHT SOME HEAVIER RAINS FARTHER
INLAND INTO AL/MS LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD (MAYBE SOME FEEDBACK
ISSUES HERE)..SO KEPT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS NEARER TO THE
COAST FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
MS..SOUTHERN AL AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE FL PANHANDLE.


...SOUTHERN TX...

THE TX H5 TROF AND NEARLY CLOSED CIRCULATION NOW VICINITY OF THE
BIG BEND WILL BE SLOLWLY PROGRESSIVE THIS PERIOD AND WILL TAP A
STILL MODESTLY MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF TO
PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY MODERATE RAINS THRU SOUTH TX.  SOME LOCALLY
GREATER THAN 0.50 INCH RAINS EXPECTED..BUT WITH THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO REMAIN OFFSHORE IN THE GULF.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 531849 529836 528823 527816 526811 525796 522786 519777
      515772 512772 510775 508776 507780 507789 504807 502828
      502838 502849 499899 499911 498923 497932 496943 493962
      490977 486994 481012 476031 473041 471046 468050 465056
      460062 453065 446065 434068 426067 423068 423063 425060
      423058 419055 416057 413057 407060 400064 398066 393066
      390068 385067 379066 377065 377062 376059 378056 385054
      394055 395053 394048 388046 386045 383046 366045 362045
      360046 354047 352049 352053 353056 355060 360066 361069
      357071 345081 342082 338081 331078 324079 321080 319084
      307082 302085 298085 294085 289084 286083 279083 272083
      267089 267091 270095 274100 279105 286111 289114 292116
      298120 309126 322133 325134 326137 328143 333147 340149
      348149 356150 366152 373152 378153 381155 385157 382159
      378160 376163 371171 369180 367186 367193 368196 371199
      375203 383206 397211 405213 412213 416213 420212 426209
      432205 438199 442189 443182 450171 458162 465159 469155
      477146 482143 486142 488144 492145 496148 504152 508152
      510149 508143 505142 503140 499138 493134 492130 493126
      495113 498094 503079 507059 508052 507045 511023 513019
      514012 517001 520982 524960 527938 527932 528928 528917
      528907 529899 529888 529882 530875 530859 530852 531849
 0.01 435947 433942 431940 428937 423937 419935 416935 410938
      409940 410945 414947 417948 423948 428948 433947 435947
 0.01 337775 336762 334757 331752 329754 324755 319754 315755
      313757 313762 312767 310770 299781 295785 292787 288790
      281791 273790 267792 264794 256796 252797 249799 246802
      245807 243815 242820 243826 250827 255834 260840 265856
      265863 263867 261876 256896 252915 249932 246952 246964
      247969 244973 241981 240992 241001 241006 243008 249013
      258015 264016 268017 275024 292029 311030 319031 328029
      331024 333020 333012 331008 324003 315002 303001 298996
      295979 292968 288958 285950 284946 286941 289933 292927
      296920 303915 310910 319905 329905 335898 337891 336879
      336874 334868 330861 328857 325855 317848 316843 316837
      318826 320816 322807 332797 335792 337786 337775
 0.25 513887 513866 512846 511835 510831 508833 507851 506870
      504885 503903 503914 504924 505932 507929 510921 511913
      512895 513887
 0.25 510996 511988 511980 507971 504961 501972 499985 498998
      496010 495018 496023 500022 503019 506010 510998 510996
 0.25 497082 497074 497070 495064 491061 487062 484065 479070
      475075 470078 457084 449086 446087 440087 434083 426081
      421085 415087 402086 398088 395086 392083 386081 370079
      366081 366084 368090 368095 365098 360092 355089 351092
      353097 358102 359106 357110 353110 350106 346101 343095
      339090 335088 330087 326089 324093 318096 314103 312107
      313112 318118 323122 326127 332133 337140 339143 342144
      350145 365146 383148 392149 397148 401150 406154 404158
      400160 394164 388168 379176 375184 374189 376194 378196
      382198 392201 408202 413199 415196 417192 426177 430167
      434160 439158 445154 451152 457148 469138 475132 480127
      484121 487113 493097 496087 497082
 0.25 333785 332776 328768 323765 320767 318770 317776 314781
      306791 296799 286807 281809 276809 269809 264809 260811
      259814 261817 265823 269827 271834 272848 272857 271865
      267897 265910 261923 258939 255953 255968 256975 259980
      262997 267002 271005 281011 288011 290009 291004 281976
      279970 278963 278954 279947 284931 286925 290919 304902
      313892 316886 317882 317878 312866 307854 305846 304836
      306830 308823 312813 320803 324797 329794 332790 333785
 0.50 489091 490083 486081 484083 476089 468094 458096 445097
      438097 434094 427087 425089 425093 424096 419100 412099
      408097 401096 395095 391093 387089 382088 377087 372088
      374093 376098 377102 376105 373110 371115 367119 363123
      358122 351114 345105 340096 336093 333091 330092 327098
      324102 322107 322112 324117 328122 335131 343140 346142
      352143 364142 379144 388141 392140 397140 407147 414147
      420145 425144 430143 441145 451141 460135 468129 474123
      481115 485108 487101 489091
 0.50 417170 416165 412164 405168 398171 395175 394179 393184
      391186 383188 383191 385193 390194 399192 402190 404186
      411181 416172 417170
 0.50 330785 329779 327775 322775 321780 320784 318788 316791
      314796 314799 318798 321795 324792 328790 330785
 0.50 311884 312878 311871 308864 304856 302848 299840 298834
      298830 299821 295815 286817 277818 273819 271822 274828
      277832 278838 277847 277857 276865 275875 275886 274893
      273902 263933 261943 259954 259963 259968 261972 264974
      270975 272972 272967 273958 274949 278930 280923 284916
      304896 309889 311884
 0.50 282999 282998 282997 281995 280994 279993 278993 277992
      276991 275990 273990 273991 273993 274995 275996 276997
      277998 278999 278000 280001 282000 282999
 1.00 455122 456120 454118 452116 445114 437113 431111 423108
      416108 405102 400104 395101 391112 389115 390119 395122
      409123 425125 433127 438129 443131 447131 451128 455122
 1.00 380137 380131 381124 382120 381117 378116 375118 373123
      371129 369133 368138 372140 375141 379139 380137
 1.00 356131 351126 347119 344111 341105 336100 332102 330105
      328108 328113 332121 336126 342131 349133 356131
 1.00 307878 306872 304866 300857 294849 290848 287849 285852
      284858 283864 283877 284889 284897 288901 293899 297896
      304888 306884 307878 307878
 1.50 413118 414115 413115 412114 410114 408112 407112 405112
      403112 401113 400113 399114 399115 399116 401117 403117
      404117 406117 408117 410118 411118 413118 413118
 1.50 376137 376135 375134 374134 372136 373138 374139 375139
      375138 376137
 1.50 342124 343120 342116 340113 340111 338108 335108 333110
      331112 331114 331116 332118 334121 337124 339125 342124
 1.50 303878 303871 300865 297861 292858 289860 288866 287875
      287883 289889 291892 295892 299889 302884 303878
 2.00 340122 340120 340118 339117 338115 336113 335113 333114
      333116 334119 336120 337121 337122 339122 340122
 2.00 300880 301876 299872 297870 296868 293867 292869 291872
      291876 292881 293883 295885 298884 300882 300880

$$





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