Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 160638
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 16/1200 UTC THRU OCT 17/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NEW ENGLAND

AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
STREAM NORTHWARD IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE OH VALLEY CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES DAY 1.  WELL DEFINED VORT CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW WILL ENHANCE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND UVVS IN THIS HIGH PW
AXIS---CONTINUING TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO
ISOLATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF NEW
ENGLAND.  THERE ARE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR TIMING DETAIL
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LATEST MODELS--BUT OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE ABOVE MENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF PRECIPITATION IN A GENERAL SOUTH TO
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES WHERE
TRAINING OCCURS DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT.
WIDESPREAD 1-2" AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DAY 1---WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE.  THE IN HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS USED TO MITIGATE SOME OF
THE QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS

IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY HIGH PW AXIS MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
DAY 1---SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE AXIS OF BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CLOSED LOW FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES---ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND INTO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  AREAL AVERAGE LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS
DEPICTED---WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY

HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION DAY 1.  MODEST PW VALUES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TOTALS ON THE LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE SIDE ALONG THE  U.S./CANADIAN BORDER FROM IN THE
VICINITY OF NORTHEAST MT---NORTHERN ND INTO NORTHERN MN.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE SLOW
MOVING NORTHEAST PACIFIC FRONT HEADED TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DAY 1.  AT THE MOMENT--TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW DIRECTED IN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
COASTAL B.C.--WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS
AFFECTING THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA DAY 1.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 359747 316755 297748 290736 337688 422636 428633 446631
      462629 477625 486624 495636 505673 513690 517695 521703
      527725 532747 533758 533768 531780 530791 529797 528802
      524811 518826 515834 512842 510849 507855 499869 495875
      495888 493900 492905 490923 490936 497952 501962 518977
      532018 519060 517065 513080 509089 505097 502104 500106
      498103 493083 482072 473056 471053 469048 468045 469039
      469028 474023 478021 481017 480012 478006 475997 473994
      473987 474979 475974 477969 475966 474960 472957 464940
      459933 455925 453923 453916 453911 455907 457900 462895
      467895 468897 472902 478901 480897 478894 475883 474873
      473860 471855 470848 443851 436847 430845 425840 423838
      419837 413833 408831 403829 399829 396831 391835 383840
      377844 370840 366840 362838 359835 358832 356826 358823
      361821 361816 368805 379793 383786 386776 391771 397767
      407761 414757 418756 419753 417751 405742 395743 391743
      387743 378744 372744 362745 359747
 0.01 528204 527191 525177 522173 518173 509169 500162 496161
      493163 492168 493169 497173 501177 505180 511189 517197
      521202 525205 526206 528204
 0.01 518271 520259 519251 515246 513239 507226 505220 503217
      500216 495211 488209 484212 480216 484220 487226 491232
      489235 487236 484236 481233 480230 477229 472231 466232
      461234 455235 452240 451249 447270 448278 449284 452290
      457295 462299 468303 476306 479306 481306 487304 492302
      501297 510292 513286 515281 517273 518271
 0.25 511281 512260 509252 507249 504252 501253 497250 493246
      491241 487240 482245 479244 478241 479238 478234 474236
      474242 471254 466272 466282 469289 477294 485295 497293
      503291 509287 511281
 0.25 520753 520745 520738 518730 517727 512721 507716 503710
      501702 499690 498677 493655 490644 486637 483635 480637
      479648 479656 478666 477671 474674 472676 468674 457668
      443662 412656 389671 378682 368692 345712 339722 341727
      354729 361732 376733 392736 405737 413739 420742 431748
      438751 442751 447749 450748 452751 452755 446773 445783
      443791 439800 439804 442808 445810 452812 458817 463824
      467831 471836 477840 481845 487849 490849 493848 498840
      501831 505813 510794 513777 516771 518764 520753
 0.25 503241 502239 502238 502235 501235 500232 500230 499227
      499226 498224 498223 496223 495226 495228 495230 495231
      496234 498236 499237 501239 501241 502241 503241
 0.25 509060 509055 508052 505050 502050 498050 495049 493051
      491054 491058 492061 493064 496066 498067 501068 504068
      506067 507063 509060
 0.50 508283 508276 506269 501259 495251 492247 489245 487246
      480254 477258 475263 473271 472278 475283 480287 490288
      493290 497288 502288 505285 508283
 0.50 460739 466739 471744 477750 482754 489756 494761 502771
      506761 505747 503732 499718 495705 492690 493684 490670
      487665 485665 483667 482672 482679 481683 477687 469683
      463678 455673 448670 439667 431665 421666 411667 403673
      399677 397681 396684 397688 395694 389698 379704 372710
      371715 373719 380724 383727 388729 396732 414736 423739
      433737 452732 456733 460739
 0.50 492815 491808 489803 485802 482804 479808 476812 475817
      474823 476827 480829 484831 488828 490824 491818 492815
 0.50 469806 469799 468794 466789 464785 460782 455784 454787
      454792 456798 458800 462802 465805 469806 469806
 1.00 505279 504271 502265 499260 495254 490252 488259 485264
      484268 483273 486277 491278 496281 501281 505279
 1.00 483720 481712 478705 471696 463686 455678 444672 434669
      426669 422670 416673 409677 405684 403692 400700 396705
      392713 392725 397728 419734 425735 430731 434727 437726
      445724 452722 463725 474726 481724 483720
 1.50 502275 503271 501268 500266 498263 497260 495257 494256
      493261 495264 496268 498270 499272 501275 502275
 1.50 465700 462694 460689 453681 445675 435672 429672 423673
      419678 419683 422687 426690 435695 437700 434703 430707
      424710 412709 408712 410718 401723 400724 404727 423732
      426731 428725 440722 445718 449715 453712 459710 464705
      465700
 2.00 459699 455693 449687 444684 438682 431680 428680 427683
      431689 438692 444693 449697 455702 459699
 2.00 444713 444710 442709 440709 438709 437709 435710 434710
      433712 433713 432715 432716 433718 434718 436719 438719
      440718 441717 442716 443715 444713 444713

$$





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