Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 140636
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 14/1200 UTC THRU SEP 15/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHEAST

A SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY DAY 1 ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GA AND
COASTAL SC.  ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES--- 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS BOUNDARY---ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST GA INTO COASTAL SC.
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET WILL ENHANCE UVVS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  CONVECTIVE CELL MOTION VECTORS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING CELLS IN THIS HIGH PW
AXIS---LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

GULF COAST

AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
DAY 1.   IN ITS WAKE---THE LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON
ITS EAST SIDE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND PW VALUES
WILL FALL SLIGHTLY.  THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS
WAVE MAY BE TO THE WEST OF THE FL PENINSULA OVER THE GULF.
HOWEVER--ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY FOR THE FL PENINSULA.
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE---EASTERLY LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
INTO SOUTH TX--ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEAD EASTERLY WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF.
SUBSEQUENTLY---PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HEAVY
OVER SOUTH TX THIS PERIOD---ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS STILL
POSSIBLE.

NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY

THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES WITH PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION DAY 1.  NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS
PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WILL ENHANCE UVVS TO THE NORTH OF WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODELS DIFFER ON THE LATITUDE OF
THE MAX AXIS AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ONE OR TWO.  THE LATEST HI
RES ARW/NMM ARE EMPHASIZING ON HEAVIER AXIS FARTHER TO THE NORTH
FROM SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA.  THE NAM AND EC
SHOW TWO AXIS WITH A SIMILAR NORTHERN AXIS AS PER THE HI
RES--ALBEIT LIGHTER AMOUNTS---AND A SOUTHERN FROM SOUTHEAST NE
INTO NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO.  WITH BOTH AXES HAVING MODEL
SUPPORT---THE DAY 1 QPF COMBINED THE TWO---WITH MODERATE AREAL
AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 15/12Z
 0.01 516876 515863 513853 510845 506838 501832 497829 494826
      497822 501818 504813 506805 506799 504796 499794 492795
      489798 485798 474805 471808 469812 466819 464823 463828
      459835 456842 454845 450847 446852 444855 444850 446844
      447836 448826 448822 446819 441821 437826 434830 433835
      431843 429851 427860 424869 424874 423879 420894 417913
      415921 411928 407933 405935 401935 394935 386936 373943
      361950 355956 350960 347968 343975 337986 315003 309006
      307011 305017 308024 308026 306026 303024 298019 293014
      288008 279998 276983 275977 279971 285960 288952 289945
      292929 320881 337863 345852 350846 354846 362834 365825
      365820 366816 356821 352825 349827 347828 346826 348811
      351796 354779 355771 355759 355749 355743 345730 342728
      339729 331730 328733 328736 325742 322754 318768 317772
      314775 311782 309789 307792 304793 300795 295796 288795
      280793 273791 265790 259790 245796 241800 239807 237810
      238813 240819 243825 245834 249840 255842 260842 264843
      269847 273867 274886 274895 273903 270918 264930 261935
      257940 251945 246950 236957 233961 233965 231967 230995
      235001 240005 251013 263021 274028 281032 286037 298043
      311050 321059 324063 325067 325077 325081 327083 331085
      333088 339102 345116 351120 356120 354116 351109 347103
      341089 339082 338077 340074 341062 340054 336049 333047
      329046 326044 323041 320035 318033 319031 323031 326030
      330030 336032 340032 342031 347028 350024
 0.01 350024 351020 352018 353010 355005 355998 355991 355987
      357985 357972 362967 367965 371965 377964 386967 393973
      400981 405989 417004 423005 428007 433007 437005 443998
      447988 449973 448959 447954 447949 448941 448933 447899
      445886 444870 444866 446864 451865 454865 455869 454874
      454878 452881 454886 463886 464888 466886 467884 469886
      469891 470898 473902 482919 485926 486934 489946 491952
      493955 497954 501950 503946 506940 508927 510915 510898
      511890 514885 516876
 0.01 477872 476870 474870 472871 471873 470875 469878 468880
      468883 470885 471883 471882 472880 473878 473877 474875
      476874 477872
 0.01 415076 415071 414064 412061 409058 405060 403064 401067
      399071 401076 403075 406077 410077 415076 415076
 0.01 381083 381078 380076 380071 380069 378067 377064 373062
      371066 371068 371071 372075 374077 375080 377082 379083
      381083
 0.01 368054 369052 368052 367050 365050 363049 362049 361049
      360051 358051 358053 359056 361056 363056 365056 366055
      368055 368054
 0.01 211122 214128 218134 222135 229134 242128 252122 259120
      264116 266109 264103 263094 269095 277104 281111 283114
      286114 293117 300116 304118 309118 311117 314114 317108
      316103 317093 314088 302080 294069 291064 287058 281053
      276050 268050 261050 256045 252041 247037 240035 234032
      227033
 0.25 442954 442940 442925 441913 439909 438906 436904 432907
      430912 428923 427935 427949 428956 430961 433970 436971
      438968 440964 442957 442954
 0.25 405973 404966 402959 399954 395950 389948 387950 386954
      388961 393964 397968 400972 403978 405973
 0.25 343766 343758 342755 338752 333754 328761 325769 322778
      320787 317808 314817 313822 314828 316852 319855 324855
      327854 331851 333847 333841 333830 334819 336808 339799
      341790 343779 343768 343766
 0.25 277822 275818 273814 269810 267808 263806 258806 255807
      255810 257814 261817 264819 268820 272822 276822 277822
 0.25 214112 216122 218125 221127 229129 236127 240126 243123
      248118 250115 252110 253105 252100 252090 254087 258086
      267087 272086 274083 274080 272077 267071 255061 245051
      238047 234046 230047 229053 230057 230061 229065 223072
 0.25 270974 270966 268962 265961 262962 256964 250966 246969
      244976 248981 250983 253984 259980 263978 268976 270974
 0.50 437954 437952 437949 436952 436954 437954 437954
 0.50 338766 337764 334763 331768 326779 323793 320805 316817
      317826 320830 324831 327829 329824 333811 337799 338792
      338784 338769 338766
 0.50 260080 260076 259074 255069 251065 248061 244058 239055
      235054 235057 239061 242064 246068 250073 254076 258080
      260080
 0.50 215107 217118 219123 223125 228127 232127 237125 241122
      247115 249111 250105 248095 247089 245084 240076 236073
      230071 226074 223078 220082
 1.00 332800 333793 330794 327798 325801 323806 321810 319815
      318819 320824 323821 325817 327814 329809 331805 332800
      332800
 1.00 244112 245106 245100 243092 238085 235083 230081 226083
      222086 219093 217105 217116 218119 222122 226124 231125
      237121 241118 243114 244112
 1.50 241112 242103 241096 237089 231086 227086 223088 220093
      218103 218113 218117 220119 227123 231123 234121 239117
      241112
 2.00 237116 240108 240100 238093 234090 229087 224090 221094
      219101 219109 219115 220118 223120 229121 234119 237116
 3.00 234113 235107 236101 236095 234092 231090 227090 223094
      221098 221103 221109 222113 224116 230117 233115 234113
 4.00 233103 234099 234097 232094 230092 227092 226094 224096
      222100 222102 222106 222107 223112 224113 228113 230113
      231109 233105 233103
 5.00 232099 232098 231097 230095 228094 226096 225098 224099
      224100 223102 223104 223106 223108 223109 225109 227109
      228108 229108 230107 230105 231103 231101 231099 232099
 6.00 228104 228102 228101 227100 226100 225102 225104 225105
      227105 228104

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.