Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 142238
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
537 PM EST THU DEC 14 2017


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 15/0000 UTC THRU DEC 18/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. MODELS ARE IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO WITH A MULTI
MODEL BLEND.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...

A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS
OF ND AND MN ON FRIDAY. WHILE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST AS TO
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS...A MULTI MODEL BLEND SHOULD
SUFFICE.

...GREAT LAKES...

A CLIPPER WILL BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WPC FOLLOWED A HIGH-RES MODEL BLEND FOR QPF TO
CAPTURE SOME OF THE SMALLER SCALE LAKE EFFECT FEATURES.

...SOUTH TEXAS...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING OFF FROM THE FLOW WILL DIG INTO MEXICO
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR DECENT WAA OVER SOUTH
TEXAS...WITH A STRONG UPPER JET TO THE NORTH PLACING THE AREA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS WELL. THUS A GOOD SETUP FOR A BROAD
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL. NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER
LAND...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF TOTALS. THE HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE A BIT DRIER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY LIKELY A FACTOR IN THIS. FOR QPF...THEREFORE...WPC
WENT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE HIGH-RES MEAN AND THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF.
THIS IS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
24-HOUR AMOUNTS MAXING IN THE 0.5"-0.75" RANGE.



DAYS 2/3...


THE WEST
~~~~~~~~
ONSHORE FLOW SLOWLY PICKS UP WITH TIME INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AS RIDGING ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH/EMBEDDED UPPER LOW DROP INTO THE SOUTHWEST IN TANDEM.
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST, THE GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO
TRENDED NIGHT SHIFT CONTINUITY TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE, WHICH LED TO INCREASED AMOUNTS.  THE WIDE DISPERSION
SEEN IN THE SOUTHWEST IS SLOWLY RESOLVING ITSELF DUE TO
CONVERGENCE ALOFT; DOWN THERE USED THE INTERSECTION OF THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE MEMBERS WHICH LED TO A WETTER TREND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AZ AND SOUTHWEST NM.  FOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS, SEE
OUR HEAVY SNOW/ICING DISCUSSION (QPFHSD).


GULF COAST INTO THE OH VALLEY/MID-SOUTH
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES (THE FIRST SHEARING OUT WITHIN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE SECOND A CLOSED CYCLONE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST) LED TO A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MID-SOUTH, AND OHIO VALLEY.  GUIDANCE
KEEPS WAVERING EAST-WEST AND NORTH-SOUTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD DUE TO CHANGES IN THE UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST.  TRENDED
CONTINUITY TOWARDS THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY.  THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE PINEY WOODS
OF EAST TX AND THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS LED TO THE INTRODUCTION OF A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

CHENARD/ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 16/00Z
 0.01 566044 566034 564028 560015 551010 544004 536999 531997
      527993 517985 509975 500969 497965 492962 479947 472939
      467936 462932 447935 444932 442933 440935 443937 447942
      452949 455952 455957 457963 460967 463968 466970 469978
      481002 487010 489018 492023 502040 506044 506055 505066
      500072 487093 484099 484103 486118 485127 481129 477129
      474134 472140 471144 468147 464151 461156 455168 448180
      441188 435198 429205 424216 418225 417233 417237 419240
      429248 430260 432266 438268 444270 449269 457267 461265
      464259 471263 472266 470269 470277 472283 479285 483285
      489285 495284 504283 509281 513278 516274 519268 520260
      519254 519250 518246 515240 515234 516229 518222 522216
      527221 531225 533223 535218 536206 537196 537188 536181
      535173 535160 534150 535139 533132 529124 527118 524116
      524111 524103 523099 524094 525075 525070 528071 530077
      540096 543102 546106 550105 553101 556083 556072 559065
      562054 566044
 0.01 488200 487195 484191 480189 476190 474194 471198 468200
      465204 465207 467209 471208 475207 479205 483204 486202
      488200
 0.01 492934 489919 489901 489890 488881 483864 480857 479855
      478850 477848 476843 476835 474795 473786 472781 473776
      472761 471753 467747 461741 458739 453742 448744 438750
      435753 433749 431749 429752 430761 428769 425773 420777
      412784 400792 395795 393796 395798 398796 402797 402802
      400814 400818 402820 408824 414824 417825 419830 419839
      418846 416852 416861 417865 419866 424869 431871 438871
      445871 446874 444876 439880 439882 444882 451880 455881
      457884 458887 458893 456898 457906 461909 463915 463920
      465922 468917 475906 478900 480898 483899 479910 478914
      477917 477923 478927 481933 486939 487946 489947 492934
 0.01 461957 461955 459955 457957 459959 460959 461957
 0.01 414708 411704 403706 396708 389711 381720 378726 375733
      374736 374740 373744 374749 374753 376756 377760 379762
      381764 385764 389763 391760 395756 398749 399742 403734
      407721 411716 414708 414708
 0.01 380047 380042 380038 379035 377033 375030 373029 370030
      368031 366034 365036 366039 367041 369044 371046 372048
      376048 378047 380047
 0.01 361700 360695 358693 353692 344694 340696 338698 330700
      326703 321709 316709 314711 310713 307712 305714 303723
      302730 299743 294756 291762 290768 290776 292784 297796
      299799 299804 301813 311790 316778 324767 338745 351722
      355717 357712 361700
 0.01 312086 313076 312067 310061 305056 303055 298053 293047
      290044 290039 288035 288029 286994 287983 288979 289974
      289962 290958 291952 298921 300912 302903 302891 298884
      293882 289875 290868 290864 288861 290843 292839 291832
      290826 289822 285822 280822 278821 270820 265822 263825
      264828 261837 258843 260846 265846 270845 271853 267858
      264864 262868 262872 259880 251895 247909 246916 247923
      247929 245934 242941 237947 235949 235953 234973 236980
      236989 236999 234001 233007 232016 232023 228038 227045
      226054 225060 228063 231065 232069 235071 239073 244078
      246080 249081 255079 262081 266083 271082 275082 278084
      280083 289083 293085 297087 301089 306090 310088 312086
 0.25 521023 521020 519018 518017 517017 517020 518022 519023
      520023 521023
 0.25 499232 500226 498221 497213 494211 490211 483211 477212
      470215 466219 466222 469221 476220 482226 486233 488235
      493236 498234 499232
 0.25 473885 472878 471870 470860 469857 467854 464861 462867
      464873 466878 466885 465895 465901 468901 469898 471890
      473885
 0.25 450225 451222 450221 448221 447221 446221 445222 443222
      442222 441223 439224 441226 442227 444228 445229 447228
      448227 449225 450225
 0.25 461832 458815 459798 458793 456792 453794 452796 450803
      447809 445814 449817 452817 454819 456828 457836 456841
      454842 450846 446852 443856 443859 446860 451857 455852
      458847 459839 461832
 0.25 429798 429795 429793 429790 428788 426788 426789 425791
      425793 424794 423796 422799 422801 424803 424805 426807
      426805 427803 428800 429798 429798
 0.25 307081 307075 306071 303068 301064 297063 293064 292069
      293073 295077 298080 301084 303085 307081 307081
 0.25 286062 285058 283055 277051 274046 272042 273036 274032
      276022 277011 276000 277987 277977 279968 282957 285947
      287937 289929 292917 291910 290904 288900 284898 278902
      272910 269919 259931 254937 249945 247955 247965 248979
      246986 245990 241997 239005 237016 238027 239047 240052
      242056 250061 258064 266066 274071 280072 284070 286062
 0.50 456796 456795 454796 454799 454801 455802 455801 456798
      456796 456796
 0.50 456847 456846 454846 453847 452848 451849 450850 451851
      453851 454850 454849 456847 456847
 0.50 302080 302078 302076 302075 300076 300077 300078 301080
      302080
 0.50 288922 288914 286908 284906 281907 275912 273919 271924
      263936 256947 253953 251956 251962 253969 255974 256978
      255983 251988 244998 242005 241016 242030 243039 247046
      251050 259049 261047 262043 265035 270023 272014 272003
      272993 272985 272980 273975 276968 280954 284937 286930
      288922
 1.00 283927 283920 282914 279916 277921 272930 270935 268939
      263947 259958 260962 263966 266968 270966 273961 274956
      277945 281934 283927
 1.00 263021 264016 265011 264001 260995 256995 253996 247000
      245008 245016 248024 251030 254031 257029 261024 263021
 1.50 271952 271949 271947 270946 269947 268948 267949 266951
      266952 266954 266956 266958 268958 269956 270954 270953
      271952
 1.50 258017 259012 260008 259004 258002 255001 251001 249002
      248006 248010 249014 249016 251018 254020 257018 258017
 2.00 253010 254008 254006 253005 251005 250006 250008 251010
      252011 253010

24HR QP VT 17/00Z
 0.01 443612 454638 452644 451649 449657 448663 447669 446676
      442687 440692 435696 428697 424696 420700 415705 409713
      401723 395729 390734 385736 382736 380735 376733 367726
      363724 359721 357717 356713 357710 357703 359698 365687
      371679 377668 378663 380658 386647 443612
 0.01 558032 556018 554007 549998 542992 520970 517968 515970
      510967 506963 501956 496945 487924 484920 482914 480909
      479907 479902 480897 480887 483877 486866 483863 480858
      473843 469836 465826 462817 460813 459805 453777 451771
      453768 454772 460780 463783 466784 472783 473778 475772
      476765 477757 476752 475745 474740 471734 470728 469724
      467716 466710 462710 460711 458709 456707 449709 440713
      437713 435719 430726 427730 427732 430739 430743 428744
      420742 416746 417755 418759 419759 422761 425760 427765
      428768 425768 421768 417771 406785 390792 386797 384801
      383804 382807 387806 391804 394801 398798 404798 405806
      404811 404818 405823 410837 418856 421869 426876 430884
      433889 435894 443910 445914 445918 448926 466964 472989
      478017 479022 479029 480033 480037 479042 477045 475046
      472043 467043 464047 460053 458057 454058 452047 452034
      451029 451022 451014 448011 444009 442012 441008 441004
      440000 438998 436999 432002 427012 424023 421029 417033
      411040 411046 409052 406056 403060 398067 388078 384086
      384089 387091 396091 400091 402092 402099 396106 393110
      388112 385115 383119 382126 383129 394126 397127 398129
      401135 415125 418126 420130 414138 409143 408147 406151
      407156 409159 410164 410169 398184 392192 391197 392202
      394207 398209 402209 404214 408218 412217 420214 429211
      431207 435204 450197 454191 460186 465180 469181 473179
      475176 477171 481160 482156 485157 491158 502161 505160
      509157 512144 508130 506117 504111 502106 497099 496096
      497092 499085 497078 495056 501036 504027 509025 514026
      520036 526042 531051 534056 538059 541060 544056 553050
      556039 558032
 0.01 520271 523263 524251 525244 524239 524232 522229 519225
      516226 511229 506224 504223 502219 504213 506209 506206
      501201 497200 494200 487202 474207 467210 458212 445214
      440214 437216 435219 433225 437226 440226 448227 451227
      455228 453232 450235 447239 448242 450245 454247 457249
      462251 470256 474264 476266 477271 467288 466294 467299
      467308 470312 473313 478315 482314 487311 493310 499306
      505299 509294 512290 518277
 0.01 442139 443132 444125 442123 439123 435125 432128 430130
      427137 427144 427147 429149 432149 435148 437145 440142
      442139
 0.01 329722 327710 326705 321706 315712 310719 302734 293748
      290753 290756 288766 288772 290776 294786 297794 301796
      306795 310789 312777 313769 316759 322743 327725 329722
 0.01 323971 322964 320957 316947 312942 310941 306940 300943
      294947 288949 286950 286946 290937 292935 291932 289929
      285928 281926 280924 278919 271908 269904 266907 263902
      260905 255911 251917 246927 243938 241943 237948 233955
      232963 233968 235970 237971 238975 238982 236987 235004
      234023 234028 233030 229035 228048 230056 230064 231070
      233073 236073 240070 243065 246065 248066 252070 277080
      285081 285074 281064 278051 275044 271039 267039 265037
      268031 272028 277026 289022 294019 298019 302017 303015
      304012 301008 297004 297000 306991 310988 315982 320977
      323971
 0.25 435627 440638 439646 437652 436661 436669 432677 419683
      412685 406689 402693 396697 382699 382692 384685 386678
      388672 395659 398654 403648 411640 435627
 0.25 514277 515271 515266 509260 506259 501259 497263 493272
      491284 490290 490295 492298 496299 502296 506291 510284
      514277
 0.25 492217 493214 491212 488210 484210 481211 476212 472213
      468215 470217 475217 478218 483219 488220 492219 492217
 0.25 498144 496135 493128 489121 484114 476103 469098 465098
      462095 461091 459088 455083 452075 447068 442064 438064
      436065 430069 426070 424074 426079 426084 429090 431092
      434092 438090 436085 433078 434073 435074 441074 444077
      448079 451086 451091 450094 444099 440095 439099 441102
      438106 437110 442110 445113 448115 450114 458114 464118
      470124 474131 475138 482140 488143 493146 498144
 0.25 483248 484243 483240 482236 481232 480231 478230 475231
      473232 471234 469236 467237 466240 469242 472244 474245
      477247 481248 483248
 0.25 474161 474154 473149 469147 466144 461141 458145 456150
      454154 454160 457164 462165 466164 471164 474161
 0.25 463238 462238 460237 458236 457236 455236 455237 454238
      456239 457239 458239 460239 461238 463238
 0.25 463218 463217 461217 459217 458217 456217 454217 452217
      451217 450219 450220 452222 453222 455222 457223 458223
      460222 462220 463218
 0.25 442757 443752 442747 440745 438746 436748 435751 435754
      434759 433761 433766 434771 436770 436768 438765 440762
      442759 442757
 0.25 429791 428783 425780 421782 419786 418792 416797 416802
      417809 421809 423806 424801 426796 428792 429791
 0.25 305975 306972 305969 300969 293975 287979 281986 277993
      273996 269997 261000 255997 249997 247999 242006 239014
      240019 243024 249027 255027 259026 265021 271015 275008
      281001 287996 293990 298984 304977 305975
 0.25 267958 267954 267949 266947 263947 261949 259950 256952
      254953 251954 252956 255956 257958 261959 265959 267958
 0.50 433633 435637 434643 432648 430655 427666 425670 420673
      415675 411675 405675 402677 398680 396679 395675 399665
      403654 406651 410647 413644 419640 427635 433633
 0.50 511276 509271 507267 503270 501273 498277 496283 494288
      496291 499291 502288 506284 508281 510277 511276
 0.50 488134 488133 487134 488134 465154 464152 462153 463155
      465156 465154
 0.50 425789 424786 424787 423788 422789 422792 422794 423794
      424791 424790 425789 437760 439760 439757 437756 437760
 0.50 262015 260014 256014 253012 251010 248012 246014 247016
      248020 250021 254021 256020 258019 260017 262015

24HR QP VT 18/00Z
 0.01 431629 434642 433650 431660 429668 427675 424682 420690
      411700 397708 395710 391712 387712 385710 381704 379699
      378693 380686 386680 391675 393668 396651 402639 431629
 0.01 483338 485336 487334 489330 490328 492326 494322 495320
      497318 499314 501312 502309 504308 506306 508302 509302
      528248 522240 517233 511226 507219 503210 501204 503205
      509214 513221 519228 521232 526234 529233 532230 535224
      543195 537189 532184 522171 514158 512155 508153 501149
      492137 487131 483128 480127 475126 472128 471133 470139
      471143 467143 465142 469170 476175 481180 487187 488190
      490193 488195 481197 475198 470198 467199 463203 457210
      454216 454228 450237 447238 450240 456245 457246 458250
      458255 457264 458270 460274 464279 467283 469289 467300
      465310 465318 466325 469332
 0.01 481150 479148 478147 476147 476146 475144 473146 472148
      472149 474150 476151 477151 479151 481150
 0.01 473882 473868 470863 469861 465860 459859 453859 450862
      447867 445874 445879 444884 445889 446899 448906 452909
      455909 457912 460918 465918 469912 470905 470897 471888
      473882
 0.01 445099 445096 442094 441092 440087 442080 444076 446072
      443070 440065 438059 438051 440043 442032 442024 441015
      441009 440006 439002 438996 434995 430004 426016 424018
      422018 420015 418013 415012 409012 399011 394015 391019
      389023 389031 384043 380052 389070 391068 394063 397062
      399064 400068 397073 394075 391077 388077 385075 384072
      381069 376071 373074 372079 379096 375108 372119 370125
      371129 380126 390123 397120 402117 407116 408118 410116
      412113 415107 416098 416091 418089 420088 423090 425094
      429098 430101 429106 430109 433108 436104 439102 443101
      445099
 0.01 423874 422862 420853 415847 412841 403827 399820 393814
      388809 381807 374808 369811 362817 356823 346833 341838
      335845 326853 320859 317862 313864 305850 292845 284845
      275846 255868 246879 239890 233926 233931 232934 232941
      233944 235950 240954 244954 247952 254951 261956 265957
      266962 266973 267983 268992 269999 271003 273005 277005
      280003 288000 291998 295998 299005 306009 309011 311010
      315009 316007 337986 342979 347973 357965 382947 392935
      393932 393928 397921 402914 404910 406906 413891 416880
      418877 421877 423874
 0.01 362128 364115 364106 363099 362095 361087 352073 355066
      357063 356060 354057 342047 338040 333034 330034 326037
      323042 315047 310051 305057 300063 294068 290069 286069
      275068 268066 257065 253065 251067 251071 253075 256081
      262087 267091 283097 290102 298105 314111 321115 325117
      328120 338130 342133 345134 351135 353133 355130 359130
      362128
 0.25 525256 518248 511239 506230 500219 496210 491206 487204
      482204 477204 473206 469209 465213 465217 466219 472223
      474224 474227 467232 464237 463242 464244 469254 473258
      476263 476276 479289 482301 486304 490302 505289 511287
      516283
 0.25 540203 536197 531194 526190 522182 514172 502165 496163
      489162 484164 487171 495182 499187 505192 517198 521202
      524203 528207 533210 539210
 0.25 428063 430058 429054 429050 427048 424046 423046 420046
      417048 415050 414052 414057 415059 417062 419064 423065
      426064 428063
 0.25 369914 370899 369888 366876 364871 361869 355868 349870
      343873 338876 335877 332876 332872 330867 324867 319869
      314874 309877 305879 303874 302869 301863 299859 291860
      277871 270878 265884 260892 258901 256923 256929 258934
      264941 270948 274954 283959 289964 291969 290975 290983
      297983 301982 310980 318976 325973 334967 339962 350949
      361934 367924 369918 369914
 0.25 334084 335076 333069 328066 324067 323070 320074 316078
      312079 305078 292079 287079 284080 284083 294090 301097
      314102 319104 322105 325104 331092 334084
 0.50 523262 513247 503231 498223 494212 491209 487208 481207
      477207 474209 471213 472219 476221 479224 480226 477230
      473231 470233 467237 469243 471246 478253 481257 482261
      483273 485284 488288 492287 499284 507284 511284 514280
      519276
 0.50 513184 512181 510179 508177 505176 502174 499174 498177
      499180 501182 503184 506186 509186 511186 513184
 0.50 357914 358903 357895 354888 351886 347886 333889 325889
      322888 322883 321879 318879 314881 303888 292895 283904
      278908 273911 270913 269916 268925 272933 274937 278943
      283945 287946 289949 293953 296959 298966 298971 301974
      306973 319967 330961 339952 346941 353930 357914
 0.50 306091 306089 306088 305087 304086 303085 301085 299086
      299087 299088 300090 301091 302092 304092 306092 306091
 1.00 491222 491219 490216 487213 485212 484212 481212 478213
      478215 480218 483221 486223 488223 489224 491222
 1.00 487246 486243 485240 483237 481235 478234 474234 472236
      471238 472241 474244 476245 479247 482248 486248 487246
 1.00 343925 344918 343915 341913 336912 332914 324921 318928
      312935 306943 304948 305952 307953 310956 316958 321956
      325954 332947 338939 342928 343925
 1.00 315911 311905 310899 308899 302905 297912 291918 287927
      285931 286934 288934 296931 303926 310920 315913 315911
 1.50 487218 487217 485216 483216 483217 483218 485219 486219
      487218
 1.50 480241 480239 479238 477237 475237 474239 475240 476241
      478242 480241 480241
 1.50 336932 335925 332924 329926 325930 321934 317938 314941
      310946 312950 319950 325948 328944 332940 335934 336932
 1.50 305916 304911 301912 297915 295918 292922 290926 288929
      289931 292928 295925 298922 301920 304916 305916

$$




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