Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 171851
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 PM EDT SAT JUN 17 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 18/0000 UTC THRU JUN 19/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS---MID MS VALLEY---LOWER LAKES INTO THE
OH VALLEY

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE AMPLIFYING DAY 1 ACROSS THE
MID SECTION OF THE NATION FROM THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER LAKES REGION AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AMPLIFIES THE TROFFING ACROSS THESE REGIONS.  THIS
AMPLIFYING TROF WILL HELP SEND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY---LOWER LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES.  THERE IS A TYPICAL AMOUNT
OF MODEL SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO THE QPF DETAILS---BUT A CLEAR
SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE FOR HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS.
DAY 1 QPF LEANED MORE TOWARD THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED
ENSEMBLE MEAN TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES.  THE
INITIAL ROUND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AFTER 0000 UTC SUN--SINKING
SOUTH THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID
MS VALLEY--- WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 1200 UTC.
RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THIS CONVECTION LIKELY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES

THE ABOVE MENTIONED AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO
SUPPORT AN ENHANCING COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND FROM
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES.  MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS IN THE .50-1"+ RANGE.

SOUTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA

THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL HELP ADVECT 2.00 TO
2.25"+ PW VALUES NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
PERIOD.  INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS ABOVE AVERAGE---2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE THE MEAN PW AXIS--- WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY TOTALS TO LARGE PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.

SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL ALSO BE STRETCHING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DAY 1.  THIS AXIS WILL BE
WELL AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM FRONTAL BOUNDARY---WITH OVERALL LARGE
SCALE FORCING WEAK.  WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.  CONFIDENCE LOW WITH QPF
DETAILS---WITH LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE WHERE SHOWERS ENHANCE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 19/00Z
 0.01 521261 516254 510242 500219 492212 490214 488215 488212
      484208 474210 465214 461215 460218 460225 461228 462231
      460232 455233 452238 454244 455247 458248 462248 464251
      462259 461265 463273 467278 475286 479291 481296 490307
      494308 497305 500301 502301 507298 510294 512292 513287
      515285 515280 517274 519265 521261
 0.01 530721 524693 522681 520676 519670 518664 516662 510658
      501647 495645 488644 484652 480660 474675 468694 461713
      457721 453727 444740 438745 436748 433746 431745 430742
      430737 429728 428721 427718 425719 422722 420726 406735
      403742 399743 397746 388751 381756 373760 368764 361767
      359771 356773 352779 347785 342790 338796 332802 326807
      324808 320808 314808 309809 306811 301812 295808 287804
      281798 275794 267792 260791 250793 243793 239793 236795
      230808 231819 234826 238832 243836 251840 255842 259842
      282840 292840 297840 299843 294847 291856 291860 289862
      288866 285870 282878 282884 284889 284894 283898 280902
      280907 281915 283922 292935 300933 306927 318918 325915
      328915 329918 329928 330940 330962 330967 333970 337976
      343973 349976 362985 365996 370005 375010 377013 381014
      384015 389016 395014 403000 406991 408982 411974 414966
      416961 419959 421964 425966 436976 441978 444981 451988
      460999 464006 465017 466029 466032 469036 472044 477049
      494053 520047 520041 519035 518028 516024 508010 504002
      501995 494979 491972 488962 488955 491952 494942 496934
      493922 492915 491911 490899 490883 490875 493871 498865
      501863 502858 505850 506841 508831 507816 511807 516799
      520792 525783 528777 529773 529767 527740 526733 527727
      530721
 0.01 490227 490224 491222 490219 489216 487218 487220 486221
      485222 484223 483222 481224 479224 478225 477228 478229
      480228 482228 483227 484227 485227 487227 489228 490227
 0.01 400711 397706 393703 386705 381708 371714 361721 351728
      343735 333743 325750 315757 312762 312768 316783 321791
      325786 330783 334780 339776 356761 365753 374746 382738
      390730 394724 397720 400711
 0.25 509283 508281 508280 507278 505277 504278 503281 504282
      506284 507284 509283
 0.25 518716 512677 509674 503675 493679 485687 478698 469721
      464733 459744 454752 447762 440771 434781 430784 423787
      418789 414793 399810 387827 374844 361863 359870 354873
      345879 341882 335883 329884 324885 307873 303875 296876
      294880 293886 293893 298896 311896 315900 319902 324903
      328907 332910 337911 340913 341915 341923 339937 340946
      343951 344954 347955 351955 354958 359966 365974 371983
      375987 380988 384986 388980 391967 393952 396938 400926
      409904 412899 415895 423886 429876 433876 437879 439880
      439886 439894 441907 444922 444939 447945 450949 454954
      455955 457952 458944 460939 466930 471915 472908 472899
      473884 474877 477871 485864 489859 493854 497843 497838
      496833 494827 488814 486807 485802 488789 489782 492777
      498768 504755 514735 517725 518716
 0.25 502278 502272 501267 498257 492249 489246 486246 481245
      479241 478239 476240 476245 478251 477258 480262 482261
      485264 488268 493277 496280 498281 502278
 0.25 419830 419828 417830 416832 417833 418832 419831 419830
 0.25 373736 372731 370730 364730 359732 354736 344743 336750
      326757 323762 324769 328772 333772 338770 343766 351758
      360751 368743 373736
 0.25 313890 313889 311888 310890 310892 311893 312892 313892
      313890
 0.25 295822 292817 288813 278809 272806 271803 271799 266797
      260795 255795 250798 246801 242805 241811 240818 242823
      247825 252827 260827 271829 283827 291824 295822
 0.50 507709 507703 505698 501694 493692 490693 486697 480707
      475717 469731 464741 459751 446775 444780 443786 440800
      439817 437823 434827 427837 421846 414859 407866 399873
      392882 389886 386886 386883 389869 394857 399848 413827
      418817 422806 425792 422793 418797 404814 374849 367859
      364865 362871 358881 356887 355894 347921 346935 345942
      346946 348948 353947 356949 357956 360962 363967 367971
      371975 377978 381978 384977 387970 390957 396931 400919
      404907 406901 410894 415884 421871 429864 433860 434858
      436861 438866 443868 447872 447879 444894 445911 447918
      448923 453929 455930 457928 462918 465912 466905 468889
      470875 472867 475860 477857 476852 476842 476827 475819
      476810 476802 478795 485771 488766 492763 495758 497751
      505723 507709
 0.50 463837 462832 462829 460826 457825 455823 454821 451819
      450824 452827 453828 456830 457832 459836 461839 463837
 0.50 364742 364737 360738 353741 348745 341750 336754 331759
      331764 334765 341763 346758 353753 358749 362743 364742
 0.50 325894 324893 322892 322889 320889 319890 318892 320894
      322894 324894 325894
 0.50 285821 282817 277815 269812 260808 259805 260804 264800
      260798 255797 251799 247802 244806 243811 243818 247819
      250816 255817 263821 268824 272826 279825 283822 285821
 1.00 492726 491721 488720 483721 478727 474735 468749 460763
      457769 454777 453786 454793 455793 466784 475773 479766
      483758 488742 491734 492726
 1.00 460896 460888 458884 454884 452886 451891 451899 451902
      450906 449911 452913 457913 458908 458905 459901 460896
 1.00 404892 405884 404878 399880 397883 387899 382906 376912
      371914 368918 367923 361943 360948 361952 366961 379972
      382969 384963 386953 391932 396913 401903 404894 404892
 1.00 394840 394837 392836 389838 384843 378853 371864 365876
      363894 361902 362906 364904 372896 378891 379886 378882
      380874 383868 388854 393842 394840
 1.50 484740 484737 481737 478741 476745 474748 472753 470757
      469763 469767 473766 475761 478757 479753 481749 483743
      484740
 1.50 399894 400889 398887 395892 389906 383918 376929 375935
      375939 376949 376960 377964 379965 382949 386934 389920
      394906 398899 399894
 1.50 378868 377866 375868 375869 373870 373871 372873 371873
      370876 369878 369880 370882 370883 371882 372882 373880
      374879 374878 375876 376875 376873 377871 378868
 1.50 374934 374929 374925 373922 371924 370926 368929 367932
      366936 366938 366943 366946 368948 370945 371943 372940
      373936 374934

$$





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