Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 130707
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
307 AM EDT SUN AUG 13 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 13/1200 UTC THRU AUG 14/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...OVERALL USED A COMPOSITE SOLUTION FROM REASONABLY CLUSTERED
MASS FIELDS/QPF OF THE LATEST GFS/ARW/NBM AND WPC CONTINUITY...

...SOUTHWEST...

MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WITH ERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACH THROUGH CA AND SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD SAGGING UPPER JET AND
DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORT THE SOUTHWEST MAY ACT TO FOCUS
CONVECTION/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MORE OVER S-CENTRAL/SRN AZ DAY1.
CURRENT WPC MPD #676 COVERS PRECURSOR SHORT TERM
CONDITIONS/THOUGHTS LEADING INTO THIS DAY1 FORECAST PERIOD.

...S-CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY....

A FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERIST FROM SE OK/NE TX
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS CURRENT AND REFORMING/BACKBUILDING
CONVECTION SHIFTS ESEWD FROM CURRENT WITH SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE
TRANSLATION IN A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WITHIN A WAVY FRONTAL
ZONE UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER JET FLOW/DIFFLUENCE. SHIFTED MAX
ACTIVITY SOUTHWARD FROM CONTINUITY INTO MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
AND AS PER LATEST TRENDS. REFORMING INFLOW/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/OVERRUNNING LIFT AND PW VALUES POOLING IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES WORK FROM  NORTH TX/SERN OK DOWNSTREAM INTO SRN AR/NRN
LA...SO CELLS SHOULD PROVE TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
REMAIN A THREAT FOR CELL TRAINING/REPEAT CELLS THAT WOULD ADD TO
RUNOFF PROBLEMS. CURRENT WPC MPD #677 COVERS PRECURSOR SHORT TERM
CONDITIONS/THOUGHTS LEADING INTO THIS DAY1 FORECAST PERIOD.

UPSTREAM...ADDITIONAL DIGGING IMPULSE ENERGIES THROUGH AN
S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD MEANWHILE FIRE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
THAT SHOULD WORK/REFORM WITHIN AN AXIS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WRN OK.

...CAROLINAS AND SERN US/CENTRAL GULF COAST...

LINGERING IMPULSE ENERGY WITHIN A SLOW TO DISLODGE CAROLINAS TO
SERN US/CENTRAL GULF COAST DEEP MOISTURE AXIS WITH PWS AOA 2
INCHES SHOULD AGAIN FIRE CLUSTERS OF EHNANCED CONVECTION DAY1 IN A
REGION OF FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET LIFT AND
INSTABILITY ALONG THE SAGGED/WAVY TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE.
PREDICTABILITY OF SPECIFICS OF CONVECTIVE FOCUS THOUGH IS NOT
HIGH.

...NWRN US...

DEVELOPMENT/APPROACH OF AN AMPLIFIED NERN PAC MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/HEIGHT FALLS AND LEAD MOISTURE PLUME INTO COASTAL PAC NW
THIS MORNING AND WITH LESSENED STRUCTURE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST TO THE NRN ROCKIES LATER DAY1 SHOULD FAVOR MODEST PCPN
IN THIS CHANGING FLOW PATTERN AS ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS WORK TO
DISLODGE/REPLACE THE LEAD STANDING SUMMER RIDGE.

...N-CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

IMPULSE PASSAGE WITHIN A MEAN NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE N-CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER JET SUPPORT FAVORS ASCENT AND INSTABILITY. LOWER
LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE
REGION WITH AN AXIS OF ENHANCING PW VALUES INCREASING TO THE
1.25-1.5 INCHE RANGE OVER THE ERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WHICH
SHOULD FUEL INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SCHICHTEL


24HR QP VT 14/12Z
 0.01 499324 497323 496323 496322 495319 493319 492316 492313
      494314 496312 497313 499311 501312 503310 505310 511293
500278 498269
      494259 489248 483245 478246 461241 435252 432254 428252
      428248 430244 437228 443222 449219 462210 471207 479201
      482196 478192 475189 472188 462191 459190 457192 455191
      445189 443186 443182 441170 438172 436176 434181 432184
      428187 426181 424179 424177 422174 421164 422151 423141
      422134 421131 418130 412129 411125 411120 419115 420111
      419107 419104 417103 415106 411111 408113 405114 401120
      398122 393121 398104 395095 392091 391091 379103 376099
      375095 378092 380087 382084 380082 375079 371075 369071
      366064 361057 357065 355069 355074 356079 358082 359085
      359091 358095 355097 353100 355104 363109 369114 372123
      373127 372131 370136 365139 363150 361153 356154 352153
      349150 346146 344142 344137 342133 340130 337132 334134
      331134 326129 323126 317127 311127 304124 300125 294124
      288119 284112 281104 279092 278086 275083 263070 260064
      264056 272054 278051 281048 282044 282035 281024 283016
      290012 295012 298013 305015 307011 310008 313003 316000
      317986 316980 314975 312969 308965 304959 298954 297951
      298947 302940 307935 301931 290923 284923 280922 274918
      267913 262907 261900 261893 265882 266877 266870 266860
      267854 270851 272847 272843 262833 248829 245828 244825
      243822 240821 235823 233819 235812 245799 254795 264794
      270794 274792 283787 297786 308776 314768 318762 322756
      327750 375694 379688 384680 394671 400665 405659 410653
      415648 420645 426643 430643 434644
 0.01 434644 440642 444643 453646 456644 458641 461636 471634
      477632 480629 485634 490641 493645 496650 498654 499661
      501673 501681 499690 497701 496706 494712 492715 489719
      486722 482723 477725 474727 475729 479733 480738 482742
      484743 488744 499746 503748 505753 509765 511781 513791
      514806 516813 516821 518838 518858 521871 521888 520893
      520900 524920 525927 525934 526936 526940 525943 518960
      517960 515964 512965 509960 507950 501942 501939 498935
      494936 494940 492946 489949 487945 486934 486926 484920
      482918 481921 480927 478932 478939 478945 479951 482955
      485958 489957 492959 492978 492986 489991 482999 479000
      477997 476992 476988 474989 470997 468999 466999 463000
      462003 459006 455009 452010 448007 442002 440004 439007
      436008 434007 433004 431001 429006 429014 429021 431025
      432032 434037 437048 442062 449068 452071 458073 462071
      464067 470065 474063 479063 485065 489068 495074 505082
      509085 513087 518094 526099 534104 540109 549115 554116
      557119
 0.01 510825 509823 508821 508820 506819 506821 507822 507823
      508825 508827 510825
 0.01 490866 490858 488854 483846 481842 479835 475823 470807
      466789 468777 470775 469770 469755 469747 469742 469736
      470732 469730 466729 462730 454731 449729 444723 443712
      446707 447701 447694 445686 445677 446666 446662 442663
      438669 433676 427682 420684 417687 411694 407701 406710
      406715 402716 399715 395717 391723 388727 387732 385738
      383742 381752 375766 374771 375776 374783 374788 375791
      378794 382795 385800 383803 381807 379812 374819 369826
      365830 362836 352849 351854 354858 359864 363882 365887
      365892 366903 366915 369926 371931 376934 380931 383927
      387922 391920 392921 396920 397916 398912 401910 404909
      407910 410912 415917 416919 419919 422917 425914 430913
      434913 436911 439908 441904 447900 455898 461897 467891
      472889 474889 477892 477899 481906 481912 484910 485901
      484887 484878 485871 490866
 0.01 394993 392991 391990 389990 387988 385986 385983 384982
      382983 382984 381986 382987 382988 384989 384990 385991
      387992 387993 389994 389995 390996 392995 394993
 0.01 331874 328872 327874 323875 321877 318878 316881 315883
      313886 314889 318889 322887 323885 325883 327881 328878
      330876 331874
 0.01 294939 294935 288935 285933 281931 275931 274933 274937
      277941 281941 285939 288941 292941 294939
 0.25 553141 550139 545138 542139 538138 532145 529146 525145
      524142 520145 519149 519155 518162 515164 508165 503164
      499161 495160 491162 488163 486164 485168 488177 490188
      493191 495192 500192 504196 506205 504213 502219 503223
      506226 514234 516237 519235 521229 522226 525226 529228
      533228 534228 541204 541203 540200 540198 540197 539194
      540192 541191 542190 543187 543184 543182 543179 542177
      542176 541173 543173 544173 546173 547173
 0.25 494217 494215 494214 492213 491213 489213 487213 485214
      484214 483214 482214 480215 478215 478216 480216 482217
      483217 485217 487218 488218 490218 492218 493218 494217
 0.25 506844 506838 504834 501827 497819 492815 486817 484821
      484826 487836 491841 495848 499857 502863 505861 506857
      506846 506844
 0.25 471944 472939 472934 469925 463918 451913 446913 443918
      441923 437930 430938 426942 419940 414939 407939 402943
      401951 401959 402962 405963 410964 411970 410974 409981
      410989 411996 413999 416000 422991 426987 434986 438984
      440981 450989 453990 454987 457982 463970 467957 471944
 0.25 456110 457101 455096 450090 443091 438092 434095 432098
      432102 433109 435112 438112 443115 448119 452118 453116
      456110
 0.25 438158 439156 438153 438152 437153 436155 435155 434157
      434159 433159 433160 435160 436160 437159 438158
 0.25 425655 421654 416655 411659 407664 402671 395678 380696
      375704 367711 341744 336754 333760 330764 325773 325779
      328783 333790 328803 326807 323810 320814 320817 323818
      327820 330825 332828 334828 339825 341824 344824 347827
      350831 352833 355831 361823 364816 365809 363798 364787
      365772 366764 369759 372748 373738 377727 383715 388707
      394699 410683 415674 420666 424660 425655
 0.25 395027 396020 395016 392011 388007 382003 377997 371990
      369985 366981 355971 350971 348974 344979 344974 351958
      355949 356943 356936 350919 349908 348899 346895 343891
      340890 335893 331898 328900 319905 314911 312920 313933
      313948 312955 313960 316964 321969 327978 332983 334987
      334993 342011 343015 347017 350021 349026 350029 352030
      356031 364038 367039 370038 375031 377029 381029 388032
      393030 395027
 0.25 346120 346116 346112 344103 343096 346090 347087 347082
      344080 340080 334081 332086 330091 326089 321087 316082
      312067 310053 310037 308035 304035 299037 295041 294050
      293055 289060 284064 280071 280075 282082 284088 284099
      286105 288107 291107 294109 294113 297117 301116 307115
      314117 318118 322118 329114 333115 336119 339122 343123
      346120
 0.25 316845 312837 309836 304837 301835 298831 293828 287827
      285829 284831 285837 282856 280865 280875 280881 279886
      280890 282892 284890 284883 286875 288872 290877 294881
      303869 305865 307861 308857 311855 316845
 0.25 312813 307803 303797 301796 297796 292801 289804 283799
      277799 274803 273806 275808 278811 280815 277819 278821
      282823 287824 291820 296820 305823 312813
 0.25 295864 294862 294860 293858 292858 291856 289856 287858
      287860 288861 288862 289864 290866 290867 292867 293866
      295864
 0.25 284912 284908 280904 277902 275900 273896 269894 267896
      267902 271904 275905 277908 280912 284912 284912
 0.50 550162 550159 549155 548152 545151 543153 540154 538155
      536156 533155 530156 530158 531161 534160 536161 537161
      540163 543165 547166 550166
 0.50 534206 533200 529196 524197 523193 520193 516195 513202
      511206 511210 514215 517215 521212 526211 529213 534209
      534206
 0.50 513194 515192 513190 513192 513194 513194
 0.50 513179 512175 510173 509173 505173 502173 500174 498175
      496179 497184 501183 503182 505182 508180 511181 513179
 0.50 467944 468938 467932 461927 455923 451921 447922 440939
      430951 426953 423952 419951 416954 415958 416966 418973
      418979 419982 421982 426979 429981 432983 434980 438973
      443971 445968 447969 451971 454971 457969 458964 462954
      466948 467944
 0.50 415665 414662 411664 409667 408669 406672 405674 404677
      404680 406682 407681 409679 411676 412673 413670 414668
      415665
 0.50 386701 383699 378705 376708 371711 366716 362722 356730
      349740 343750 342753 343757 347762 347769 345774 342788
      337797 340813 345811 348807 349800 353793 358784 360778
      361770 361758 359754 356752 356749 357747 366741 371728
      377719 382708 386701
 0.50 391025 393020 391016 387011 378003 371999 367994 359985
      357982 353981 350986 346998 347002 349006 352011 354018
      357025 365034 368035 371033 374028 374023 379023 384026
      390026 391025
 0.50 342113 343109 343106 342102 341100 341096 340092 339090
      337093 337097 337102 336106 336110 337113 338115 340115
      342113
 0.50 346941 347936 346932 344925 343920 343915 344906 340899
      335900 330906 326909 320913 317920 317937 317945 317952
      317956 319960 323964 326969 331971 334970 337967 339963
      343946 346941
 0.50 322113 322110 318109 313109 310104 309098 307092 307085
      307079 310075 309072 307069 302067 296067 293067 290068
      288075 287083 289095 290100 293101 297104 299107 303107
      308109 318115 322113
 0.50 301861 301859 301857 300855 298855 297857 297859 298861
      298863 299864 299863 300862 301861
 0.50 298813 297811 295809 294809 293809 291809 290810 289811
      289812 290812 291814 292814 293815 295815 297814 298813
 1.00 462942 463940 463937 462937 460936 459937 458940 458942
      459944 460944 462942 462942
 1.00 454954 454952 454950 452950 452952 452954 454955 454954
 1.00 433976 433973 433972 432971 431969 430968 429968 429971
      428973 429975 429977 430978 431978 432978 433977 433976
 1.00 426964 426963 424962 423963 422964 422966 422968 423969
      424968 426966 426964
 1.00 388020 389018 388016 387015 386015 385014 384015 383017
      384020 386020 388020 388020
 1.00 363731 362729 361730 359732 358734 357734 357737 358738
      360737 361736 363733 363732 363731
 1.00 369028 365021 361014 361011 363007 362001 361998 357991
      355988 353987 351993 351998 353001 356007 359011 359016
      361023 366028 369028
 1.00 356766 356765 355764 354763 353764 352765 352766 352769
      352771 351773 351775 352777 353775 354775 355773 355772
      355770 356768 356766 356766
 1.00 339932 338926 335923 334920 335915 337913 338909 337906
      333908 333915 328916 324919 322924 321930 321934 323949
      328957 330962 333960 335952 337940 339932
 1.00 308074 307073 306072 306071 304071 302072 302074 303075
      305076 307075 308074
 1.00 297075 296074 294074 294075 294077 295077 296077 297075
 1.50 334936 335932 333930 331928 330925 327926 325928 323930
      324934 324939 324943 325945 327949 328950 331949 333947
      334943 334939 334936
 2.00 331945 331943 331941 331939 331937 331934 330932 329930
      328928 327930 326931 326932 326934 326937 326939 326941
      327943 328945 328946 330946 331945

$$





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