Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 231900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 24/0000 UTC THRU JAN 25/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...ERN GULF COAST NEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST...

FIRST ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE INTO SC/NC...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD TO A
POSITION OFF THE DELMARVA COAST SAT MRNG.  EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY
CONVECTIVE RAINS TO SPREAD NEWD UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT...AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH AND NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN.  HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO
1.75+ INCHES (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORM) ALONG WITH
40 TO 50+ KT S-SW 850 MB JET AND WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG TAPPED FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX AND THE ATLC GULF
STREAM) WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONGER EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
BANDS AND HIGHER (POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE) RAINFALL RATES. GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOIST/THETA E INFLOW NOTED PER THE MODELS...THE
SREF AND GEFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS RIBBON OF
850 MB MOISTURE FLUX EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA INTO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SE GA...TO THE TUNE OF 4-5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AREAL-AVERAGE QPF WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3+
INCHES...THOUGH PER RECENT TRENDS ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND
SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE...LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 3-4+ INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED...WHICH GIVEN THE CURRENT 6
HOURLY FFG... COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE BANDS TRAIN OFF THE EASTERN
GOMEX AND ATLANTIC GULF STREAM OFF THE SE COAST.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND THE NORTHEAST...

THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL CORRELATED AT THIS POINT IN TERMS OF
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH (WHICH TAKES ON MORE OF A
NEGATIVE TILT) THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL QPFS HAVE COME INTO
MUCH BETTER CORRELATION WITH THE LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN...WHICH
HAS TRENDED A BIT WETTER A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH DAY 1. WPC QPF INCORPORATED A
MULTI-MODEL BLEND...WITH THE BULK OF THE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE 12Z
ECMWF AND IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE QPF.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK RIDING OVER TOP OF BUILDING
ERN PAC UPR RIDGE WILL SPREAD EXIT REGION FORCING (WAA) AS THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT SPREADS INTO THE PAC NW. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH WAA LIFT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PCPN AMOUNTS INTO THE OLYMPICS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EWD INTO
THE NRN CASCADES AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION  ONCE AGAIN STAYED
FAIRLY CLOSE TO CONTINUITY HERE GIVEN REASONABLY CLOSE MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 25/00Z
 0.01 301729 322701 352670 399644 433637 445635 452634 458633
      464635 467639 468643 470645 472639 477634 481634 482635
      488644 493656 498669 500676 502682 503687 505691 506700
      505709 506717 504733 502744 498758 491767 487770 485776
      481789 478795 477802 475809 474817 474825 472828 472834
      473854 469857 469861 471863 477870 480874 483879 484883
      486880 488875 490873 492875 496878 500885 500892 503895
      507895 510897 514911 517915 519922 520928 520936 519944
      516948 513948 511946 509940 505934 501930 497927 495926
      493929 489929 483927 477927 475922 475915 475909 473902
      468901 464905 460905 458900 457891 459886 461877 462867
      459860 456860 454862 450867 448871 445873 441870 440868
      439864 438859 436859 439854 437847 437838 434835 431835
      429831 429818 427815 424815 421813 418814 408819 404816
      403814 401816 393837 381856 374866 371870 368876 356892
      348899 340906 332913 327917 322919 317920 315919 314914
      313909 316903 320893 327887 330882 332879 330876 330869
      329865 328863 324857 321854 316854 310855 304856 298857
      292861 287864 272875 267878 262880 256883 250884 246879
      244876 222875 221858 221848 220839 224830 239817 256801
      260788 266770 276762 283754 291747 294743 297739 301729
 0.01 564049 565038 563030 560013 556001 553998 550992 542984
      534975 518962 509956 504952 499949 482939 476939 472939
      471941 470949 470960 469966 465969 460973 455974 450976
      445980 443985 441988 441993 443999 444002 450006 453008
      451010 449012 449017 449026 448031 447036 443040 439043
      442048 445051 449054 473056 476057 478059 482064 484068
      487075 491088 492091 492096 492104 499113 503116 509118
      509112 508107 508102 507100 509094 510086 513080 519081
      527087 529090 532091 538092 541092 543091 548088 555081
      558074 560068 561055 564049
 0.01 537213 538187 537176 534166 532158 529150 526144 521136
      516129 513128 511131 509135 511137 516143 519147 521149
      520152 516152 513149 500143 496141 494138 494133 496130
      496127 493124 486118 481112 477105 472090 470088 467088
      465092 464098 461101 458101 453095 451092 448092 445096
      442098 438100 436100 433107 435111 442114 444119 444123
      448124 451120 454120 456123 456127 453128 450129 450135
      448139 446142 440146 439151 441154 450157 453165 456167
      459168 460172 458174 453173 451175 450180 451185 454187
      458188 465187 471181 474184 478186 482189 482194 477200
      466206 462205 460208 456216 453219 453223 456224 459227
      451244 451247 454251 459255 464261 468269 468274 470279
      474286 478293 483299 485302 489304 492305 495304 501301
      506295 510288 515279 521261 523256 523250 527242 533225
      537213
 0.01 476121 475119 474116 472118 472121 472123 473124 474124
      475123 476121
 0.01 455710 454706 452708 451711 447720 441728 436734 430742
      428746 428750 427754 428757 431754 438748 444742 447738
      450733 453730 454725 455720 454713 455710
 0.01 454086 454081 451075 448073 446070 441069 436069 434071
      436074 441074 444077 447082 451085 454086 454086
 0.01 425777 425775 424772 424770 422768 421770 421771 420773
      420775 420776 419778 418779 417781 418783 420782 422780
      423779 425777
 0.01 287079 284070 280065 277063 276057 275053 275048 274045
      270042 262041 257040 253038 251036 249038 248042 248048
      246049 244048 236046 233049 234053 237060 239063 241067
      243071 243076 242086 245093 250094 254092 259088 266083
      269082 272083 281084 285082 287079 287079
 0.25 533203 534195 533189 528177 523168 516160 507159 501158
      496156 487134 484131 480128 475131 472135 472140 477143
      482145 484148 488153 489155 487156 475152 466149 462150
      460153 467162 470167 475170 480172 483176 489183 493188
      495192 495197 493199 489201 482204 477205 472208 466214
      463219 463224 466229 464234 463240 465246 471254 477265
      483274 489281 498287 503288 507284 512275 517264 519256
      519249 514237 512226 513218 516214 527211 531207 533203
 0.25 535032 535024 533020 529012 523004 518997 512991 508988
      505988 503991 502998 504003 506008 512014 517020 524026
      530032 535032
 0.25 484227 482225 480225 480226 480227 481229 482230 483230
      483229 484227
 0.25 473725 474720 473715 472711 470711 468712 467714 465717
      464721 463725 465730 467732 469732 470731 472728 473725
 0.25 457665 456657 454652 452648 448646 439645 429646 418649
      407652 390659 381663 372668 364674 357680 344692 339698
      335708 326723 315740 310747 304753 292765 279776 276780
      275785 275788 276790 280792 285794 288796 284803 274816
      268822 260827 253832 250836 249841 238851 233860 232864
      235866 244865 254861 259862 259869 259872 263872 276860
      283854 289850 296846 306843 327838 335833 341828 347822
      354817 359817 362819 365823 366828 364832 358834 356839
      357843 361843 365840 372836 378829 383822 389815 393806
      398797 403788 406780 410772 417752 420744 425735 436717
      440709 444702 448694 453684 455673 457665
 0.25 264072 264070 263070 262069 260068 258068 257069 258071
      260073 261073 263073 264072
 0.50 527199 529194 528189 526182 520171 516166 511165 507166
      501167 490162 483161 481165 489174 494177 498181 501187
      505191 510194 514199 521201 525200 527199
 0.50 516259 516253 515247 511237 503218 500213 497208 493206
      488205 480207 473211 467219 470221 474220 478220 482222
      485226 485233 482235 478232 473231 471233 469237 470241
      472246 476253 482263 487272 494278 499281 504282 510273
      513269 515264 516259
 0.50 448675 448669 447663 443655 438651 431650 418652 409654
      402657 387663 373672 361682 351691 343701 335714 322738
      318744 316752 307763 303768 298773 288781 297790 298795
      297798 293805 274822 269827 269831 272832 272837 272842
      268848 268853 270856 275856 277854 287848 299839 305835
      310830 315826 320823 336818 343815 348811 353806 359801
      366798 372800 379803 385802 391796 394791 402776 406763
      408754 411748 441696 446685 448675
 0.50 269839 268838 266839 264839 262840 262839 260838 259838
      257839 256840 255842 255844 256845 257845 259844 261844
      262844 263842 264842 266841 266840 268839 269839
 1.00 511260 512253 511248 508240 501224 489212 484211 482214
      480216 483219 488225 491234 494243 489239 486238 483241
      480239 478236 475234 474237 478244 482252 486260 491268
      496273 500276 504275 507264 511260
 1.00 520186 519184 518183 518182 516180 515179 513177 511178
      510180 511182 512184 514185 515186 517187 519188 520186
 1.00 436674 436665 433660 429657 423656 414658 405661 395666
      385671 375678 368683 361690 355699 346715 343719 338722
      335726 333730 332735 334739 335743 333748 327755 321765
      317772 312781 311787 313790 315791 325792 334795 338796
      344795 350793 354791 362784 369779 373776 377776 383776
      387774 391762 396754 400745 404734 409726 417719 423712
      429704 432699 433694 432686 430685 428686 425691 421692
      421687 423686 426684 429680 432681 434679 436674
 1.50 507251 507243 504236 502230 499225 495222 491222 490224
      492231 494236 497242 500248 504253 507251
 1.50 501272 501264 499258 495252 493247 488242 487240 485243
      484249 486256 489261 493266 498270 501272
 1.50 489219 489216 489215 487214 486215 486218 487218 488219
      489219
 1.50 422670 421666 417665 408666 400669 392673 378683 373688
      368694 365702 361710 358718 355725 352732 348741 338751
      333758 328765 323771 321778 319782 321786 329781 335778
      339777 342779 345781 350782 358777 369768 375762 382757
      387751 390744 393723 400719 403716 405713 407704 408699
      409694 417679 421674 422670
 2.00 502243 504241 503239 502236 501233 499229 497226 496225
      492225 492227 493230 494233 496236 497238 499240 501243
      502243
 2.00 498263 497260 496257 494254 493251 491248 489246 487244
      486243 486248 486251 487254 489257 491259 493261 495264
      498263
 2.00 404684 401681 399681 394681 390682 383686 378691 374697
      372706 372710 373714 380715 385714 388712 393706 397700
      400692 403687 404684
 2.00 376726 374724 370724 366728 356738 348747 339757 331767
      328773 328775 331774 338772 344772 351771 356767 361762
      363755 365749 366741 370735 373730 376726

$$





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