Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FXUS04 KWBC 181057
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
656 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 18/1200 UTC THRU MAY 21/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A SUB-558 DM UPPER
LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN MN. THIS CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FOSTERED
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN ITS VICINITY. COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE HAS SHIFTED THE
PRECIPITATION TYPES TO A MIXTURE OF LIGHT SNOW AND OCCASIONAL
FREEZING RAIN OVER AREAS OF ND INTO FAR WESTERN MN. TO THE
EAST...THE AIR MASS IS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE WHICH HAS LED TO
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.
GENERALLY TENTH TO QUARTER INCH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN ONE HOUR
ACROSS NORTHERN MN. MODELS AGREE ON THIS UPPER LOW SLIDING
EASTWARD IN TIME REACHING SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. COMMA-HEAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL SPREAD THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. MODEL
AGREEMENT WAS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE.


...TN/OH VALLEYS EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND...

WHILE THE UPPER TROF MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...A SERIES OF WEAKER IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE FROM THE OH
VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THESE MESOSCALE WAVES WILL
WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP FIRE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE THE
ACTIVITY SPREADS DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY ORGANIZED GIVEN MID-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS MAXIMIZING AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS AT 19/0000Z. OVERALL THE
MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT PAINTING A HEAVIER AXIS OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. ADDED A LITTLE DETAIL FROM
THE 12Z HRW-ARW ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF WV/PA.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY/OZARKS...

PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DRAG A SERIES OF
MESOSCALE IMPULSES FROM NORTHEASTERN MX ACROSS SOUTH TX AND TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ONE SUCH WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL MS SPAWNING A BROAD AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION EARLY THIS
MORNING. MODELS SHOW THIS COMPLEX WEAKENING IN TIME AS IT LIFTS
TOWARD THE UPPER TN VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...MANY OF THE HIGH-RES
MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH THETA-E AIR LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF OF MX INTO SOUTH AND EAST TX BY AROUND 09Z. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHILE THE NEXT MESOSCALE WAVE CROSSES THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. THE 04Z HRRR SHOWED CONVECTION
INCREASING IN COVERAGE BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z FROM EAST TX INTO
WESTERN LA. THIS SEEMED TO AGREE WITH WHAT THE 04Z RAP WAS SHOWING
AT THE TIME. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS A BROAD AXIS OF MODEL SPREAD
WHERE THIS CONVECTION WILL CONGREGATE. THE IDEA OF DEVELOPMENT IS
SUPPORTED BUT PLACEMENT IS ANOTHER STORY. GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW NEARLY ALIGNS WITH THE MEAN CLOUD-BEARING FLOW...SOME CELL
TRAINING/BACKBUILDING CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. IN
TERMS OF THE QPF PLACEMENT...FAVORED THE 04Z HRRR FOR INITIATION
WHILE USING SOME CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE 12Z HRW-NMM-B THEREAFTER.


...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

THE DEEP UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL LEAD
TO A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BY
19/0000Z...MODELS SHOW THE 850-MB FLOW PICKING UP STRENGTH AS 20
TO 30 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO TAKE AIM AT THE FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE ROCKIES. AS THIS LLJ INTENSIFIES...THE 12Z
HRW-ARW SHOWS A BROAD TONGUE OF UNSTABLE AIR WORKING ITS WAY ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE 850-MB JET. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT BETWEEN 19/0000Z AND 19/1200Z WITH THE FOCUS
INITIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES. BASED ON THE DEW POINT ANALYSIS FROM THE 00Z NAM...THIS
APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WITH A DRY LINE FEATURE EXTENDING
NORTH-SOUTH. GRADUALLY THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MODEL
SPREAD WAS RATHER HIGH WITH THIS AREA OF THE COUNTRY WITH SOME
MODELS NOT SHOWING ENOUGH PRECIPITATION AGAINST THE TERRAIN.
THOUGHT THE 12Z HRW-ARW AND ITS PARALLEL RUN WERE SUPPORTIVE OF
HEAVIER AMOUNTS ALONG UPSLOPE LOCATIONS AND LESS DOWNSTREAM.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED ITS AREAL COVERAGE WHILE BEING A TAD MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH THE ACTUAL FORECAST AMOUNTS.


...WESTERN U.S....

THE STRONG UPPER TROF MOVING FROM THE CA COAST TOWARD INLAND
LOCALES WILL HELP INVIGORATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. MODELS SHOW A STRONG 250-MB JET STREAK IN EXCESS
OF 110 KNOTS RACING THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CA PLACING THE FAVORABLE
UPPER DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ONLY MODEST
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH FORECAST PWATS IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...THE
SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN SPREADING QUITE A BIT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE QPF PRODUCTION WAS
PRIMARILY BASED ON A SPLIT BETWEEN THE 00Z NAM/18Z GFS. THEY BOTH
SEEMED TO HANDLE THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION WELL AND UTILIZED THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM TO PAINT THE COMPLEX TERRAIN.




DAYS 2/3...


...NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC...

A SHORT WAVE CROSSING ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PUSHES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY
2...AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT RESULTS IN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SHORT
WAVE AND THE FRONT...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
00Z ECMWF/GFS.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY ON
DAY 2 TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY PUSHES A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT CROSSES THE COAST BETWEEN 20/00Z AND 20/06Z (AND PERHAPS
A BIT LATER NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER). AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT (IN THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN
1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN
A LINE OF CONVECTION CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HERE SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NH AND ME
(WITH LOCAL 0.50+ AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN ME).

FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN IS NOT AS ROBUST (AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION OCCURS CLOSER
TO 20/00Z). MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...AND A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE THERE IS MID LEVEL FORCING...THE
LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE...REDUCING THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING. AN AXIS OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS EXTENDED
FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NC/SC...WITH LOCAL 0.50+ INCH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE IN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RIDING UP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON DAY 2 FEEDS CONVECTION
THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT BOUNDARY...AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
AND MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING DAY 3.  THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT DURING DAY 2 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/GFS. THERE IS INCREASING MODEL SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER AND
MID MS VALLEY DURING DAY 3...AS THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TOO DRY IN THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND THE 00Z NAM MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE HIGHER QPF IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE WPC QPF FOR DAY 3 WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/UKMET...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
CONVECTION IS SOUTH CENTRAL TX AS WELL.

A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
CO ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK...AS WELL AS NORTH TX BECOMES THE
FOCUS FOR HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR AND INSTABILITY ON DAY
2...ESPECIALLY AFTER 20/00Z. A 25 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BUMPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES
(RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX VALUES BETWEEN TWO AND THREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL)...CENTERED AROUND 20/06Z FROM A
PORTION OF NORTH TX THROUGH CENTRAL OK. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AN AXIS OF BROKEN CONVECTION...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES...AND 1.50 TO 2.25 INCHES OF QPF
WAS PLACED ALONG THIS AXIS. THE QPF AMOUNTS ARE BELOW THE THREE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...BUT THE STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN (WITH MANY MEMBERS OF THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 2+ INCHES OF QPF) AND HIGH RAINFALL
RATES SUGGEST A SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NEEDED FOR THIS AREA.

THE SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST CO ON DAY 2 TRACKS ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING DAY 3. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL FLOW EARLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES EAST. THE BEST
MID LEVEL LIFT RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AS THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND INSTABILITY DECREASE (MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED). THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF EXTENDING
FROM MO/SOUTHERN IA THROUGH MUCH OF IL/SOUTHERN IN. THIS IS
SURROUNDED BY A MUCH LARGER AREAS OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF
COVERING MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX...INCREASING MOISTURE IN A
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 3. THE
MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY (AS SEEN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...
WHICH BECOME INCREASING MOIST WITH TIME) ARE FOCUSED ON A LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX. CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ON THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AS WEAK SHORT WAVES IN THE
STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT FOR
ORGANIZATION. THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET BOTH KEY IN ON THE DEVELOPING
CONVECTION HERE TO PRODUCE 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF QPF...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX. MANY MEMBERS OF THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR 2+ INCHES OF QPF ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY...WHICH IS ABOVE THE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES. GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TX.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORTED NORTH INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS AND THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FUELS CONVECTION THAT
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING DAY 2. FOR THE
MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN (THOUGH THE 00Z NAM MAY BE TOO FAST MOVING THE RAINFALL
OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS)...SO THE WPC
QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST CROSSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING DAY 2. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.00 TO 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR (WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) INTO WESTERN KS AND
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES IN CO...AS WELL AS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY (WHICH BECOMES ELEVATED AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN CO).
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR AND INSTABILITY FUELS
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST NM INTO EASTERN
CO...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS INTO A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST WY. THE
BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION HERE BECOMES JUST HOW FAR WEST DOES THE
ELEVATED CONVECTION GET INTO EASTERN CO/SOUTHEAST WY...AS THIS
COULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT UP TO THE
DIVIDE.

MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DOES
NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO THE DIVIDE...AND INSTEAD BECOMES FOCUSED ON
THE FRONT RANGE. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT SOME
TRAINING OF THE CONVECTION COULD OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN
KS INTO SOUTHEAST WY...RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF 1.00 TO 1.75
INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THIS AREA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN CO AND WESTERNMOST KS...WHERE THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AS LOW AS 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES. THE UPSLOPE
FLOW BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS OCCURS EASES OFF AFTER 20/00Z...SO MUCH OF THE QPF
IS EXPECTED BEFORE THAT TIME.

THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
FRONT RANGE AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DURING DAY 2 (EVEN IF THE 00Z
NAM MAY BE TOO FAR EAST INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF...GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW). THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE
RELATIVELY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...SUGGESTS THAT THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA IN PLACE BE RETAINED.


...WEST COAST/GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACES ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES DURING DAYS 2 AND 3. YET ANOTHER CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA LATE ON DAY 3. THERE WAS GENERALLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP (THOUGH
THERE WAS INCREASING MODEL SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW AND THE SPEED OF ITS APPROACH TO THE CA COAST LATE ON
DAY 3)...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS.

WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION OVER
THE WEST COAST DURING DAY 2 SHOULD RESULT IN LOCAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY (DUE IN PART TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES) AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES
(WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) SHOULD
RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION. DUE TO
THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...A LARGE AREA OF 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER EASTERN OR...SOUTHERN
ID...NORTHEAST NV AND MUCH OF NORTHERN UT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD RECEIVE LOCAL 0.50+ INCH QPF AMOUNTS. WHILE LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE... AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING
DURING DAY 2.

THE AIRMASS REMAINS SUBSTANTIALLY THE SAME DURING DAY 3 ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE VALUES IN THE COLUMN AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AS WAS THE CASE ON DAY 2...AREAS OF 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES OF QPF WERE PLACED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OR...NORTHERN
NV AND SOUTHWEST ID.


RUBIN-OSTER/HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 19/12Z
 0.01 532227 533222 532216 528207 522200 517198 514199 497204
      488202 485205 482207 473207 465211 459214 452212 449209
      451202 456193 462186 465179 466174 464171 462162 462156
      461151 456143 452139 451133 453118 453113 453109 454106
      455100 453096 452093 447092 444092 441090 437088 434085
      435077 439075 446080 451082 453081 453078 446071 438065
      436060 436052 438047 439045 442045 445044 447041 445036
      442033 436032 433030 423029 418027 414024 407018 399013
      392010 388008 383007 374003 369002 366998 354983 349960
      347951 347945 350941 354933 361925 374912 378910 380905
      383897 392880 398872 404865 430840 435833 439827 445818
      454815 461813 467812 468813 469817 468823 467828 467835
      467842 465848 463858 460870 461874 459879 459886 460903
      462906 462914 460923 457933 455937 455945 454954 457964
      460974 467980 475987 485987 489987 493984 498978 503971
      509964 514955 518943 522934 524928 526920 528909 531897
      532887 534875 537862 537856 538847 541819 542791 542777
      542771 541764 534740 531738 528733 527724 524719 522714
      518712 515711 509713 506715 503714 501710 500706 504696
      506691 506685 504669 503662 502657 497646 493645 487645
      484645 481649 475657 461674 439704 425712 417718 412720
      408723 394736 386742 382745 378746 369752 365751 360752
      351758 349761 347766 346770 346774 345779 345786 344791
      343794 340794 336797 334800 329807 324812 320815 314817
      310819 306818 284816 274817 270819 268822 289846 296853
      299857 301862 303866 304870 303873 300882 299888 296892
      293899
 0.01 293899 290908 288913 290917 293926 295932 296936 297943
      296952 297954 297960 296967 294971 290979 285986 279994
      277997 274999 269001 264002 254008 252010 251017 250020
      252024 255028 259031 275038 286039 291041 294045 300052
      307057 314063 320064 324066 327070 330071 341074 350079
      352090 354095 358099 364106 366107 367111 365115 361123
      360129 361133 365137 369138 374137 378135 385131 388129
      390133 387137 381137 378140 377149 376152 374152 368152
      361148 356146 352148 350152 350156 352162 356164 364165
      367169 368173 363170 360170 359172 360175 357180 357185
      360188 369193 384206 396209 399212 401216 405219 406224
      401225 395223 390222 387224 387229 389234 395236 398237
      399239 401242 405246 414247 418250 424252 428250 429244
      431242 434242 438241 443242 453241 458242 461240 465238
      467230 470225 474223 478222 483223 486223 491224 493228
      494235 498243 504252 509259 514262 518260 521254 522245
      521239 519234 517229 516222 520220 525220 527223 529228
      532227
 0.01 509280 508277 507274 506266 504260 500254 496250 493244
      490240 488237 485238 482238 481235 481231 478229 473231
      472237 473241 474244 479247 485249 490254 493267 502277
      504282 507282 509280
 0.01 405196 404194 404193 403191 401193 399193 398194 399196
      399197 400198 402199 403198 404197 405196
 0.01 349199 351195 350192 350188 349185 347179 345173 343166
      338165 336165 334167 335169 339172 340177 341178 342185
      343192 346197 349199
 0.01 296800 295794 290793 279793 274792 269794 259798 255800
      251804 249809 249814 252818 257819 266813 275808 279805
      285805 290806 294804 296800
 0.25 534768 533763 531757 527749 522742 515735 511732 507730
      498732 491736 482739 473740 471736 471731 474722 476718
      479715 483713 486707 488695 495686 497681 498675 494667
      491665 486667 478672 473675 470679 466689 460699 454705
      448711 439727 435735 430742 424750 420754 414756 404757
      399757 395759 386773 381784 376790 365804 359812 352818
      340834 334841 334844 336849 340858 340864 339869 337873
      333878 331880 327880 319878 315879 312881 302897 299903
      299911 300917 301923 303933 305945 305956 305960 303966
      300973 296981 292991 287998 278002 273005 269007 266010
      265013 265017 268021 272024 277026 287027 295024 298022
      301024 306034 313039 321044 330048 337052 343054 349054
      353061 358067 362071 364077 366082 367088 369091 373092
      382092 399083 408080 415076 416073 416069 416062 416058
      418055 418050 415047 409046 405043 396039 392036 389032
      389026 385023 381022 378019 373012 363008 356005 351000
      348995 344993 340994 336996 326998 320997 317993 314991
      313986 317978 322970 328965 334958 338949 345929 348921
      353910 360896 367887 372881 378875 383867 388857 392849
      401835 413820 418812 424803 434785 437778 439774 442771
      447768 451766 458772 466776 474783 482800 484811 485819
      486827 485841 484856 484867 482881 477907 475917 476927
      477933 480939 483942 486944 490944 495942 500940 503937
      509929 513922 517912 520901 523891 525878 527864 529849
      529834 526823 517805
 0.25 517805 516803 517801 517800 518800 520798 520797 521796
      522794 523793 524791 525788 527786 527785 528783 530781
      531779 533776 533773 534771 534770 534768
 0.25 506237 505234 503232 502230 500230 499232 500233 501235
      503236 504238 506237
 0.25 461180 462176 460174 458172 457169 454161 452154 449148
      444144 439140 437141 436146 434152 437158 439160 442161
      444159 447161 449163 449169 447175 447177 444179 440177
      434176 431173 431168 428163 423159 419153 416147 407140
      402137 397137 393140 389141 388145 390149 393151 398154
      397159 395161 389161 384161 378160 374163 377168 378171
      378175 376180 376185 375186 372184 367181 363182 364186
      370188 376192 380198 385202 391202 392197 390195 387191
      385184 390181 396180 401176 406175 408171 408168 413168
      413185 412193 409201 413216 411223 409227 409232 417240
      423239 423233 429233 436232 440229 445228 451226 454221
      450217 444216 441214 440211 443205 447201 450194 455186
      461180
 0.25 445111 444108 442108 441108 442110 443111 445111
 0.25 434097 433095 433094 431093 431092 429091 428091 429094
      431096 431097 432098 434097 434097
 0.25 424117 422114 419111 415109 413104 410096 407093 405095
      404100 402106 400109 395110 392113 389116 390117 399121
      399127 400129 403129 408128 409124 414124 418123 424117
 0.25 365157 364156 363156 361156 362158 364159 365157
 0.25 313852 313847 312844 311841 310837 309835 307833 304833
      302834 301838 301840 301844 301848 302850 304852 306854
      309855 311854 313852
 0.50 520758 520752 518748 513743 507740 503739 498741 494743
      489749 485758 484762 484768 485778 487789 492807 492818
      491828 491839 492851 492861 493872 488891 487899 486906
      487912 488917 490920 493922 497922 503919 508913 512905
      516897 518889 521879 522868 522855 522842 520836 519832
      513827 510820 508807 507794 509784 513775 517766 520758
 0.50 475750 472747 468746 465747 460746 458740 457734 456731
      451730 448733 447737 447740 444745 437753 428757 417761
      407764 402766 397770 394773 392778 382794 378803 371811
      364818 362822 361828 359833 355837 352839 352844 356846
      354850 352854 352862 355866 360867 367860 373852 378843
      383833 386822 388819 392815 400810 404807 406802 407796
      411792 420793 427786 433777 437768 439763 443760 451754
      455756 459759 463761 468759 475750
 0.50 450224 450221 448219 442218 438217 437213 441205 444198
      445191 445186 444183 441183 439185 434189 430195 425198
      420197 416200 414202 415205 419210 419216 417225 418228
      421229 424227 427227 429230 433231 438228 444225 450224
 0.50 455177 455174 455172 455171 454169 453168 452168 451168
      450170 450173 451175 451176 452178 454178 455177
 0.50 414064 412057 413054 409052 403051 395049 390041 382040
      378039 375036 373032 373029 375025 375020 373015 370013
      366012 363013 357017 353017 350015 345010 340009 335010
      329008 326005 321002 315996 309992 306990 306987 315971
      324960 332947 338932 349899 357885 359881 357876 355877
      352879 345885 338890 333891 325892 317892 312894 309896
      304901 302905 302910 306928 308937 309947 309957 307967
      305975 301983 299992 295998 288002 282005 275008 272011
      271016 274019 277021 282022 287021 292018 297012 302012
      306014 312019 354058 360062 363064 366066 366072 368076
      373082 375085 379085 385081 390081 393079 399075 405073
      410072 413070 412066 414064
 0.50 397175 397173 397171 395170 393170 391170 390170 388170
      386171 386173 386175 387176 389177 391177 392177 394177
      396176 397175
 0.50 388201 389199 388197 386196 385195 383193 381191 380191
      379192 379194 379195 380197 381197 382199 383200 384200
      385201 387201 388201
 1.00 516871 514864 513861 510859 507864 504872 503878 500885
      498892 497896 500898 503896 506893 510887 513882 515874
      516871
 1.00 502775 502770 501765 499763 496764 494766 493769 493774
      493777 495781 497784 499783 500781 502777 502775
 1.00 438224 438222 436221 434220 433220 431220 430221 429223
      430226 431228 433228 434227 435226 436226 437225 438224
 1.00 383074 385072 385070 383069 382068 381067 380067 379067
      378067 376068 375069 373070 372071 371073 372075 374077
      376077 378077 379077 380076 381076 383074 383074
 1.00 373048 372046 369044 365045 363046 362047 358049 356050
      356052 358054 361055 363054 367052 368052 372050 373048
 1.00 369025 368020 363019 360023 357026 355029 352033 350037
      353041 356043 360042 364039 365034 367030 369025
 1.00 337019 336017 334016 332015 331014 330014 329014 327013
      326014 325015 325016 324018 325019 327020 328021 329021
      330021 332021 334021 336020 337019
 1.00 337915 338907 337902 334901 332903 329906 325910 321907
      314908 312913 311919 312925 312931 314939 313949 315955
      318955 320954 327945 330937 334926 337915
 1.00 318007 317005 317004 316003 315002 314001 313999 311999
      309999 308000 307000 308001 308002 309005 310007 311008
      312009 313010 314011 316011 318009 318008 318007
 1.50 334919 334915 333911 332909 329911 326917 324922 322928
      320935 319939 321942 325943 328937 330932 332926 334919

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 483615 484625 485632 484637 501631 504631 506635 511644
      513648 515656 517662 518671 519680 519689 518695 518705
      519713 518721 516733 516785 517800 516813 514838 512849
      510855 508859 503866 501870 499874 499878 500886 498891
      498896 498903 495906 492909 488908 485904 482898 480892
      477888 471883 472873 475862 476858 475853 472841 472835
      470831 469822 467817 460798 458783 458776 458771 459764
      458759 453755 448754 439757 431764 420778 413784 409789
      404797 400806 396812 393817 390820 371851 367860 366865
      363869 354890 351900 350903 351907 352912 355922 364920
      380913 401912 410912 414912 417918 424937 433956 442978
      448997 455020 458029 460040 462050 466060 469068 472078
      473083 473091 472098 468103 465107 461109 454116 452121
      452129 457140 461148 462153 466157 465161 463164 461168
      461173 464178 462183 459187 458190 459192 460204 462209
      465209 475208 482206 486204 490204 497202 506205 516208
      523217 525219 524222 522229 518242 516249 513250 510246
      509248 509252 506249 503246 501242 496234 492227 482223
      478224 481228 485236 490239 493243 497251 500252 501255
      501261 500265 499262 495258 489250 485245 480243 476244
      475239 473233 468230 466231 465234 468236 469240 466242
      462245 459246 456250 452247 449244 444244 436245 427243
      417239 412238 409239 401240 396238 393235 388232 386228
      392224 400222 401219 400216 396212 387206 380201 372193
      366188 366184 369182 377185 381188 386191 392197 398198
      403196 404192 404189 404184 401180 398181 392180 384175
      381169 379165 381159 382155 381152 378143 376134 366119
      365115 366109 367104 366099
 0.01 366099 366093 364089 358091 355089 353084 352079 352073
      349063 343055 334050 327046 319042 313037 309035 303035
      294035 274031 269030 262029 250029 239028 235022 232014
      231002 232996 233992 241989 251993 260998 267001 271003
      271005 274007 289998 293996 293992 292981 292958 292952
      294948 295944 297940 297932 295921 295908 297896 300887
      300874 297852 295842 289835 286833 282830 273829 267829
      264825 261822 257820 250816 244816 242815 246807 250800
      253797 257797 261796 263799 262805 262811 256813 258815
      260818 263822 269817 276811 279810 285809 297808 299807
      298805 297798 305782 312766 320750 324741 327731 331724
      333719 337715 343710 351705 354703 360701 363699 368696
      375691 379687 379681 383671 387663 390653 398644
 0.01 399709 387712 382712 377715 369724 361732 357736 353742
      354746 354750 358750 368744 373742 378737 380732 384728
      392720 396715 399709
 0.25 429634 431641 430646 429651 427655 424659 421662 418665
      413667 413663 415658 416654 418650 420645 422641 424637
      425635
 0.25 513670 513662 512654 507643 504641 499642 492651 486658
      483662 478665 472670 470664 470661 470656 468651 468646
      465648 462653 456660 447667 440674 435682 432687 431694
      432703 431717 434720 438723 444721 447719 450717 453718
      456722 460733 463737 465742 468757 470763 472771 472778
      474786 477797 481809 483816 484818 486818 489819 490816
      493812 495808 497803 498809 501814 504811 506805 508799
      508794 509779 508763 506743 505728 507714 512689 513680
      513670
 0.25 470686 468685 467687 466690 465690 464693 464695 465696
      465697 466698 467697 468696 469694 469692 469691 470688
      470686 470686
 0.25 450180 451175 449175 447172 450170 452171 451167 449156
      444133 442129 438129 437122 438115 439111 438106 438100
      440095 443085 448076 451066 453050 454045 453040 450029
      446022 442014 434996 430988 426981 420973 417969 415963
      412955 407947 402942 395936 387935 378936 372937 367939
      364942 359944 344950 338955 333962 330972 326980 320986
      312992 306997 305001 306006 307010 308015 307019 308022
      315028 323033 332038 337043 344047 352051 354055 357058
      365061 368063 371068 373071 373077 375082 381084 383085
      383088 382091 383094 392093 398087 400088 400091 402094
      400099 398105 395107 392112 389115 385117 385120 388119
      392119 396120 402126 405130 406135 405142 407147 407153
      405158 406163 407169 411172 416179 418184 418188 418194
      416199 412208 411215 413220 418221 422221 431218 439214
      443205 442198 445191 450180
 0.25 445174 446172 444170 443171 443174 444174 445174
 0.25 435131 435129 433129 432130 431131 430132 429134 429135
      428137 428139 428141 428143 429142 430140 430139 432138
      432136 433135 434133 435132 435131
 0.25 415232 415229 413226 411225 408225 405226 403226 401228
      398229 399232 402234 406234 407233 410233 413232 415232
 0.25 420704 420702 418702 413707 410711 408717 404722 402729
      406731 409728 412723 411718 413713 417709 420704
 0.25 380768 381765 379763 375761 368759 363758 357761 351767
      346772 341780 339790 342793 346791 351784 359779 366775
      377772 380768
 0.25 336910 336904 335897 333887 332883 329878 323873 317879
      313888 312899 313909 319916 322919 328918 332917 335913
      336910
 0.25 318823 319820 318817 314817 309816 304815 299816 296819
      298826 300827 304831 306834 309832 312828 316826 318823
 0.25 266017 263013 258008 254005 251001 246998 239999 238003
      240007 243011 249013 254014 259017 263018 266017
 0.50 509685 509677 508670 503660 500657 497657 491664 486671
      482680 479689 475699 472707 469717 469723 470728 476735
      480746 482758 484764 486765 488763 491760 493754 498734
      501724 504714 507704 508693 509685
 0.50 454680 453678 452679 450682 448685 446688 445690 443693
      443696 444701 446701 448699 451697 452694 453691 454688
      454683 454680
 0.50 448056 449045 448036 441024 435011 431004 426997 415990
      412985 408978 405972 401967 392954 387950 382947 376945
      370946 359952 353957 348963 342967 338971 336978 332984
      328988 323992 319994 317997 315999 314005 313014 317020
      321025 327027 332030 337035 340038 343039 349040 355044
      360047 372054 384061 386061 389060 394062 395066 394073
      395076 399077 406077 413076 416084 416088 420090 422093
      421099 420104 416106 412105 410102 406102 405108 408116
      410119 413120 416122 417127 419136 416144 415154 416159
      417162 426165 424159 423150 423139 424129 428122 429116
      429098 432080 432071 438066 443066 445063 448056
 0.50 428209 429207 429204 428202 426201 425201 423202 422202
      421204 421205 420207 420209 422211 423212 425212 427211
      427210 428209
 0.50 249006 249005 248004 247002 245002 244003 243004 243006
      245008 247008 248008 249007 249006
 1.00 501703 501695 499690 497686 494683 491687 490693 489698
      488704 487709 489715 491718 496719 499716 501710 501705
      501703
 1.00 437040 432022 418018 411015 400015 393011 386011 383014
      381017 374021 371023 369026 370030 372035 382047 386048
      389045 391043 396042 400043 403045 406047 410047 427045
      433044 437040
 1.00 388981 386978 383975 380973 375972 369969 368965 364963
      353972 346976 342983 339991 334997 331004 330016 331020
      333023 338024 343024 346023 348019 349014 348011 353006
      360003 371992 373988 377986 385983 388981
 1.50 388027 388025 388023 387022 386021 384021 383022 382023
      382024 381026 382028 384029 386029 388028 388027
 1.50 364985 365981 364978 357976 352980 349985 347991 346995
      344998 342002 342004 346004 349002 353997 357993 362989
      364985

24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 540200 540195 537196 529196 514197 495199 489200 481203
      465211 461212 456211 452211 451209 451204 455199 454194
      456190 462186 461161 461148 456142 457138 460134 462131
      463127 464109 465102 463097 459089 457085 455078 456061
      458057 458049 456038 455031 454025 453020 452014 448001
      442981 437959 435949 433938 430912 428898 425888 414835
      410825 406815 401806 401800 396789 393787 389787 379789
      375794 371804 368813 360833 356842 351850 342855 335856
      333853 333850 329840 327831 332811 333806 336802 341795
      345788 346784 348780 350776 348774 341773 340769 342767
      351753 356743 360734 361729 360722 357714 354713 354710
      355704 355699 354694 353690 351690 346688 343685 339684
      333685 330687 325694 321711 318723 315733 310751 310756
      308762 306771 304781 303786 304794 298804 294806 291805
      274800 266797 260798 257800 252802 250810 251816 254819
      259819 262821 269825 282827 285829 287831 292838 298847
      299851 300856 301871 299876 299883 298884 298888 299893
      297905 297918 301926 301939 301944 299949 299961 297965
      294967 286972 283976 277978 270981 264986 264992 265997
      267001 263001 253997 244994 240992 235994 233001 234009
      263023 273028 283029 295029 300032 302036 309043 312048
      314052 318054 323056 331060 349066 355067 359065 366061
      367065 367068 369071 372075 374080 376083 378085 386084
      389084 393085 396089 395096 393102 394108 387115 380119
      377121 374126 379128 384129 388126 395122 398124 398129
      394133 384136 380137 379139 385146 391153
 0.01 391153 388161 384168 380176 372178 365178 358181 359185
      361189 368194 379204 386208 393212 397218 399221 396223
      390227 389232 391235 406242 416244 424244 436238 439237
      444238 448239 449234 450231 451226 455222 457221 465220
      473220 481222 485224 487226 495233 499240 507253 511260
      514264 515261 518255 522245 526236 529226 532219 535212
      540200
 0.01 527700 526686 522676 513657 503641 492626 487621 479619
      474620 469623 463629 461633 460637 452644 446651 442659
      440668 443676 448687 453691 455694 455697 452701 448708
      445710 446712 445717 445725 446728 445732 444737 441740
      438743 438747 438751 440752 443752 447749 450748 453745
      455741 457737 459731 461728 463730 467732 471741 476747
      479747 481742 486732 489724 492715 494710 497709 501708
      505707 507709 515707 523704 527700
 0.01 479238 480236 480234 479233 479231 478230 476232 475235
      476236 477238 479239 479238
 0.01 413012 412000 410991 408987 406983 403981 398980 390977
      380977 374982 370990 362005 358011 356016 358020 368034
      371041 375044 380044 389045 398044 402043 407043 410033
      410021 411014 413012
 0.25 432224 434220 433218 432211 431203 429197 434189 437184
      438179 437176 433164 430159 427154 426148 424143 421142
      419143 416146 413151 411159 407164 406173 405180 403187
      404189 407189 412189 418189 419187 421188 423199 421206
      417209 414214 414219 414224 412225 407227 402228 398232
      402235 409236 415235 418232 426229 432224
 0.25 422945 422935 422927 421916 420908 415893 409882 405877
      403871 393863 385854 381853 379855 376860 372873 371881
      374886 362907 360912 359904 358898 360895 361891 359888
      356886 351887 347891 337897 332907 329913 327920 316945
      312957 306968 304975 301981 297986 293990 290993 283994
      278994 276995 276000 277002 287012 291014 294016 297015
      300013 305016 310020 317022 321022 325021 329018 334013
      337008 346983 350977 354972 359968 364965 373960 379957
      387957 400953 410949 418949 422945
 0.25 390199 391197 391195 390194 388193 387193 385192 383192
      381192 380192 379193 379194 379195 380197 381197 382199
      383200 384201 385201 387201 388201 389200 390199
 0.25 339746 337734 334719 333712 330715 328727 325738 323747
      320759 319764 319772 320774 323775 328772 332769 334764
      338753 339746
 0.25 286812 285810 284810 282809 281809 280808 278808 276807
      275807 274807 273807 273810 274811 275812 277813 278813
      279813 281814 282815 283815 284815 286814 286812
 0.50 409926 410921 408917 403911 400909 396908 392909 387910
      382915 380917 380922 382929 384933 387936 394936 402933
      407931 409926
 0.50 367949 367947 366945 364943 363943 361944 359945 357947
      356949 356952 357954 357955 358956 359957 361957 362956
      363956 364954 365954 366952 366951 367949
 0.50 341965 342958 342950 340936 338932 334930 331929 329931
      326935 325940 323947 321958 319964 317969 313973 311977
      309982 306985 299992 292999 284997 281999 284004 288008
      293010 295010 300008 306009 311011 315013 319014 325013
      329012 331007 333000 334994 336988 338976 341965
 1.00 326001 327997 327993 327988 326985 324983 321984 319986
      317988 316990 316994 317996 317001 318004 322005 325003
      326001
 1.00 309998 309996 309994 308993 306993 304994 303996 303998
      304999 306999 308000 309998

$$





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