Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 150616
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 15/1200 UTC THRU OCT 16/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TO THE GULF COAST...

ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS PROGRESSIVELY TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA WHILE ITS TRAILING
FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY FROM THE CENTRAL ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.  AS
THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...RAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST ALONG ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
TO MODERATE AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE THE LIFT
TRACKS TO THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...VEERING WINDS AND DECREASING MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED TO HELP LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST...REACHING THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS BY MON
MORNING.  A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH...FOCUSING DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MAY FUEL SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST SUN MORNING.  THEN OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY HELP TO
BOLSTER LOCAL AMOUNTS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING A HALF-INCH ARE
NOT EXPECTED.

OVERALL GUIDANCE WAS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT.  WPC AMOUNTS
REFLECT A BLEND OF THE THE HI-RES GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE
NAM...GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF.

PEREIRA

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


24HR QP VT 16/12Z
 0.01 493337 488335 485329 483322 483315 484305 483297 482283
      483273 483265 484257 488251 492248 493243 492240 498229
      500221 506223 509229 512234 519244 527251
 0.01 484615 489619 492622 495626 505641 508650 511660 517682
      519692 520698 520704 521717 521727 521739 520749 517769
      516780 513789 509799 508810 502827 499834 495843 488860
      481875 477880 475885 475890 472892 470897 468900 467900
      464897 462899 454903 446906 438904 434900 433889 432888
      435884 440877 435872 432870 427870 420869 416869 414871
      409872 406875 401880 390892 370917 362928 357934 352939
      341948 331959 321970 310981 305998 302007 301012 300015
      302017 305018 308017 311010 314002 319994 322987 324984
      324980 326975 329974 334973 334978 332980 332984 328991
      328001 326012 325022 321030 317038 313047 302044 293035
      288030 283024 279019 269018 263015 257011 251006 245001
      243998 242994 242984 242978 239976 234974 231972 231962
      233952 236937 238929 238919 239912 241908 243905 249900
      251899 255900 260899 263897 269892 276879 281874 287867
      293862 296861 299862 302863 304862 311859 314852 319847
      324841 327834 330826 333818 333812 334809 334804 336802
      347790 361780 366763 373751 375749 379746 386744 392738
      396732 404717 407710 411702 414696 419690 422685 425682
      429679 428697 429701 431702 435695 442681 449665 456650
      461644 465637 468628 471620
 0.01 544192 540189 535185 528177 525174 522170 519167 515171
      513175 512184 513191 512195 509195 506197 504202 507206
      510204 514204 517205 518209 520214 522216 525219 527225
      532235
 0.01 516025 516019 514014 510004 507993 502985 499983 495982
      492982 489985 487990 487997 489007 491013 495014 500014
      503017 509022 512025 516025
 0.01 503939 501934 494933 492932 489931 482931 476931 472932
      472935 476938 481942 486944 491945 496947 501944 503939
 0.01 436647 434642 427644 419653 416658 413663 408674 403686
      401692 399697 403696 408692 415683 423673 429663 433658
      435652 436647
 0.01 392685 391676 387677 384679 375687 359709 327753 320764
      314768 312770 308770 279768 275764 268762 256768 252773
      255777 260781 263782 266782 270782 273784 277790 277794
      272794 264795 256796 250799 245803 241807 237813 235820
      235829 238834 240835 242834 245829 250816 251813 253817
      257822 263825 268828 295833 303831 308827 307817 311812
      317809 321805 328794 336782 339776 342770 350759 353753
      358748 368739 377729 383718 384710 388703 391693 392685
 0.01 331921 330918 327919 324922 320924 316928 308933 303935
      303931 298931 294935 294941 292946 289950 285953 277958
      268964 265967 264972 263976 264979 265984 267989 272991
      276994 280991 288985 295979 301971 313956 324939 331921
 0.01 297092 294085 290080 276075 274071 274067 274057 274051
      273048 271046 267045 260047 252048 242057 240060 242062
      245066 258074 268083 279092 285095 293095 297092
 0.25 525258 519252 513244 508237 503235 501241 499248 497250
      491255 489260 488265 490278 494285 497297 500295 505297
      506303 506308
 0.25 537215 538208 538202 536196 533192 530189 527188 523188
      521189 521191 521197 522202 524208 527211 530214 535215
      537215
 0.25 512715 512703 511690 509677 506664 505655 502645 499639
      494633 490628 486626 480630 475635 469650 465657 462665
      462674 461683 460693 458703 457711 455717 452725 448731
      445737 440740 433744 428747 425753 424758 423763 421772
      422779 413790 408796 402796 397793 390796 381804 370812
      361822 354832 345843 335852 330857 322861 315863 310867
      297871 290882 287889 286897 283902 278907 273911 266915
      260916 254913 248911 246915 246920 245937 245947 242953
      239958 238965 240967 243969 251968 265962 270959 274954
      274944 278937 286924 295915 303906 308902 312897 317892
      321885 323880 326882 330881 338880 344877 349873 352872
      353876 356877 359876 363869 369856 372850 376844 390822
      395816 396814 400812 407808 414811 420811 423810 424806
      424803 425799 429792 432786 431781 429778 430774 432771
      435769 439767 442766 444765 444768 441776 436790 434798
      433807 430808 429811 429817 434820 440823 445824 447822
      447819 445816 444812 446812 451812 457815 459817 461822
      461833 459853 461863 461874 463878 466879 471875 476862
      483848 489831 494816 499801 503787 506769 509750 512731
      512715
 0.25 429862 428860 427859 426858 425857 424857 422857 420857
      419857 417858 417859 417860 419862 419863 421863 422863
      424864 426864 428863 429862
 0.25 370727 369722 365723 358727 354731 349736 344741 339748
      340751 343751 350747 355743 361738 367733 370727
 0.25 318018 319016 319014 319011 318010 316011 315013 314014
      314015 313018 313020 312021 312022 312024 312025 313026
      314027 315026 316024 317022 318020 318018 318018
 0.25 270011 268007 266003 262001 258000 255998 249997 249000
      253004 256006 260008 263010 267011 270011
 0.25 265819 265817 264815 263813 262811 260809 258807 256807
      255808 254808 253810 254812 255813 256814 257815 259817
      261818 262819 263819 264819 265819
 0.25 258988 257986 257985 255985 254986 253986 251987 250988
      249989 249990 251991 253991 255990 257989 258988
 0.50 524262 518256 514250 509243 505244 500253 495255 492257
      490260 491271 493278 497284 501287 505288 512287 513288
 0.50 508703 506688 504674 502663 499650 494640 489635 482635
      478638 476643 473652 470661 468670 468682 464703 460724
      456732 457738 456744 453766 451777 451781 452786 454790
      456796 462801 470803 473805 474812 473824 473830 474838
      476840 480839 483830 489810 493789 500772 502762 504750
      506740 507728 508715 508703
 0.50 365730 364729 362729 361730 359731 358732 357732 356734
      355735 354736 354737 355739 356738 358737 360736 361735
      363733 365731 365730
 0.50 352842 352846 356840 358832 359832 353839 352841 352842
      352842
 0.50 350862 352856 355848 353849 351852 349856 348857 347858
      346860 345862 344863 344864 343866 344867 345866 346866
      348865 350862
 0.50 316873 315869 310869 305876 300882 298891 297897 295900
      290908 289912 291913 293912 299907 304899 309892 313886
      315881 316875 316873
 0.50 274933 274927 270925 261928 257930 254933 250941 248950
      244958 245963 248964 257962 265959 268957 270954 270943
      273935 274933
 1.00 310877 309885 306891 304891 304887 305881 307877 310877
 1.00 521268 517262 515258 511252 507251 505260 504264 501262
      496260 494260 493264 494270 497277 501281 506280 510278
      515277 519276
 1.00 501697 500689 500681 497665 494651 491646 488643 483646
      481651 479655 477661 474685 468706 466718 467729 468737
      467743 467748 468756 474763 483761 488758 491755 493750
      493743 494731 497719 500707 501697
 1.00 265941 266937 263936 261938 259940 257942 256945 255947
      254952 253954 255954 257953 259952 261949 263946 264943
      265941
 1.50 503275 502274 502272 501270 501269 500267 500266 498265
      497264 495264 495266 496267 496269 497270 497272 499274
      500275 502276 503275
 1.50 492661 491655 489652 488652 484661 482668 481675 481682
      479688 475699 471708 471717 472721 474721 482715 487712
      490707 492702 493696 494688 494681 492664 492661
 2.00 485697 484700 482703 481702 481699 485697

$$





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