Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 151858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
157 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 16/0000 UTC THRU DEC 17/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...WEST COAST...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON 2 WELL DEFINED
H5 S/WVS IMPACTING THE WEST COAST THIS PERIOD..AND ESPECIALLY
CA..KEEPING THINGS ON THE WET SIDE.  THE 1ST S/WV WILL MOVE INTO
CA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN ON TUESDAY AS THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  EACH SYSTEM WILL BE
PRECEDED/ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND A SURGE OF
PWS NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH..ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THE
COASTAL RANGES AND LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IN THE
SIERRA RANGE.  FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURES SHOULD
KEEP RAINFALL/PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCH RANGE
FOR THE MOST PART IN CA..WITH LESSER TOTALS UP INTO WESTERN
OR/WESTERN WA WHERE HEIGHT FALLS ARE MEAGER AND ONSHORE FLOW
PRETTY MUCH NON-EXISTENT.


...EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...

THE VERY WELL DEFINED H5 LOW NOW VICINITY OF NORTHWESTERN MO IS
HANDLED SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS THIS PERIOD..WITH THE SYSTEM BEING
PULLED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD
OF THE NORTHERN STREAM H5 TROF DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
LATER TUESDAY.  WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION BAND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES..WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOWS LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN LAKES..PLEASE SEE
THE QPFHSD FOR THE WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.  FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST..SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE/PWS OFF THE GULF ON A MODEST
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT RATHER
WIDESPREAD RAINS AT LEAST DOWN INTO THE TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES WHERE SOME HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR..BUT THE VERY
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO WILL KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE
LIGHT RANGE..GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.50 INCH.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 17/00Z
 0.01 518277 520269 519259 518246 514237 510227 508222 504215
      498210 490203 486199 481200 477200 469202 466203 463203
      460201 459196 460187 464179 463173 458171 454167 454162
      453159 452155 450152 445146 441137 439134 436135 434140
      433149 435160 438166 436169 434169 432171 431168 427169
      424171 420171 418170 417166 416162 413155 408152 403151
      398150 395151 386154 383157 381163 383169 387173 385180
      389180 391184 391186 388190 383189 378182 370180 366178
      368174 363165 361159 355157 351157 349159 348161 346162
      343159 340160 338163 331160 330159 322158 316161 312167
      309178 304190 299199 295208 301215 316217 332222 343228
      351235 361248 373257 382263 392266 405270 418273 435274
      469276 473276 477279 484285 492294 503299 506301 509298
      514288
 0.01 526828 523814 523809 523805 523794 522791 519791 513789
      502795 496797 493798 492795 488788 482783 459761 444742
      436729 433725 428721 423716 420714 416714 398714 393717
      384719 380720 377723 371727 361733 353742 344751 338755
      335762 320787 313803 306818 302827 295837 292843 289847
      289857 289862 286866 284868 284872 288879 291883 294878
      296877 298880 296882 294889 294893 293897 289901 284908
      281917 277931 273945 272953 271964 270971 269980 268983
      267978 265974 265969 265958 265953 263951 259949 255951
      252958 251962 248963 244965 239967 235972 233978 235985
      243995 251004 257008 265009 267007 271007 275008 277006
      274996 274984 277979 279974 283970 285962 289950 296937
      300931 305924 309918 315913 321909 325904 331899 337895
      348892 351891 355892 361894 388900 392900 395903 398908
      398913 398917 398923 400925 406925 409934 411939 412945
      410950 409953 407953 398949 398958 398963 400966 403970
      406977 407980 409981 412980 415979 417980 423984 425984
      427982 433978 438974 445968 450962 459949 473929 488905
      493901 498896 508884 521850 524839 525831 526828
 0.01 498182 499174 495169 491164 490162 487161 480159 477159
      475161 472166 474171 478175 484179 489181 491183 494184
      498182
 0.01 451119 452112 450108 451105 453100 451099 449097 445096
      433095 430092 427091 426094 427096 428101 426103 421107
      418110 417106 413100 408096 405089 404086 401084 398081
      399078 404075 411075 415070 412064 405063 399063 391065
      388067 385070 386074 390079 393081 395083 395086 394092
      392096 392100 393103 388107 389110 387113 385113 381115
      383117 386118 393117 406122 411121 419121 425120 433117
      437117 443119 451119
 0.01 423219 422217 421215 419214 418216 418218 418220 418221
      418223 420224 421224 422221 423219
 0.01 360816 360814 359813 357813 356815 355815 354815 352817
      352818 351820 350822 349824 351826 353826 354825 355824
      356822 357821 358820 359819 359818 360816
 0.25 511284 513274 511266 504253 499245 493238 488233 481232
      475231 470233 465236 464245 461247 458247 449244 443243
      434243 429243 423241 416238 412236 413231 414225 414218
      412215 408208 405204 401202 387197 376188 370184 365182
      360182 356182 357187 365193 368196 371203 374209 376213
      372214 366211 360206 354200 350192 347187 346179 344172
      342169 339167 331165 329166 329169 331173 330176 327179
      323179 321184 322187 324189 326193 316202 318206 323206
      333207 339207 346212 351215 356219 358226 362233 373245
      379250 388254 399257 403258 408258 413257 443253 448253
      452253 456255 462258 470262 497284 505288 509288 511284
 0.25 419868 427882 428894 426903 423911 422922 428924 438918
      447920 459919 469913 482899 492880 500862 502839 501827
      500820 497817 490815 483813 475814 458821 452824 448823
      446819 439814 436813 432813 429814 428818 428819 423821
      420823 415823 409819 403821 397826 396830 397833 401837
      401843 419868
 0.25 445764 442759 439757 428756 423758 418761 414772 407778
      404782 402788 404793 408798 418793 428789 436783 440772
      442768 445766 445764
 0.25 446875 446872 445871 445870 445868 445867 446865 445863
      443865 442865 442866 440868 441870 441873 440875 439878
      440879 442880 444878 445877 445875 446875
 0.25 436880 435878 433878 432878 431878 430879 430881 430882
      432882 434882 435882 436880
 0.25 422813 418809 415804 410802 403802 396805 392805 388808
      389811 393811 400810 406810 411812 416814 419814 422813
 0.25 404743 403741 400740 396741 393743 391744 388746 386747
      386751 388753 391754 394753 397752 399750 402748 404746
      404743
 0.25 333887 334885 332883 331884 330885 329886 328887 327889
      327890 326891 326894 327894 328893 329893 330891 331890
      332889 333888 333887
 0.50 508283 508274 505270 500265 497260 494254 489252 486259
      487267 491272 495277 499281 506284 508283
 0.50 491858 491850 490841 489836 483834 481835 476838 473842
      470847 468861 466866 463871 462876 466878 468895 472896
      475896 477894 480882 486871 490861 491858
 0.50 440249 438246 435246 429246 416245 412245 407241 404236
      399232 390232 385233 381234 381238 382243 387248 393251
      401252 412252 417251 424251 435250 440249
 0.50 407222 406217 404212 402209 399206 394203 389203 386205
      388210 388215 388221 390225 394226 398225 402225 405223
      407222
 0.50 379231 377230 376227 374225 372222 370221 366220 363220
      364223 367225 369226 372228 374230 377231 379231
 0.50 385202 383200 381197 379194 377193 375191 373189 370190
      370192 372196 373198 375200 378203 381204 385202
 0.50 364186 362184 361184 359185 358185 359186 360186 362187
      364186 364186
 0.50 349208 349204 348201 346195 344189 340186 333182 328181
      326184 329188 333193 335200 338204 343207 349208
 1.00 401246 400246 398245 396245 398246 400246 401246
 1.00 401216 400213 398212 396211 395211 394212 395214 396215
      398216 399217 401216
 1.00 345202 344200 342200 340201 341203 343204 345203 345202

$$




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