Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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027
FXUS04 KWBC 172254
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
553 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2017


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 18/0000 UTC THRU JAN 21/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST...

2100 UTC UPDATE...

CUT BACK ON THE LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD (00-12Z)...BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE PRELIMINARY QPF WAS ISSUED
(INCLUDING THE 12Z ECMWF...18Z NAM/NAM PARALLEL...AND THE RECENT
RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR). OTHERWISE...ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE QPF ACROSS TX...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WHERE AMOUNTS
WERE RAISED WITHIN THE BACKSIDE OF THE AMPLIFYING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT AND DEEPENING TROWAL WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER LOW CENTER
ACROSS NM.

HURLEY

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...


IT REMAINS THE CASE THAT THE LINGERING FORMER COMPACT UPPER LOW
THAT BROUGHT THE MULTI-DAY ICE STORM TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY CROSSING NEW ENGLAND AS A SHEARING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIGGING
IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH
WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY AND ACROSS/OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC WED...BEFORE
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS JUST OFF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAIN CENTER WEDNESDAY. A SWATH OF MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS NY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...INCLUDING A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AXIS OF FREEZING RAIN WHERE
SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NEW ENGLAND REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A DEEPER
COLD LAYER THAT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL.
PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND LOW WRAPPED
MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME GENERALLY LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN. HEAVIER RAINS THOUGH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND BACK DOWN INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND EASTERN TX WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE POOLED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT. THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST DOWN ACROSS
SRN/SOUTHEAST TX AND LOWER MS VALLEY WILL STALL OUT AND THE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT
TONIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN ELONGATED
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THAT WILL ALLOW SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO EJECT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THEN INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. THE MODELS AGREE IN DEVELOPING A
BROAD AREA OF FAVORABLE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS BY
LATER TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THE RESULT SHOULD BE
THE FRONTAL ZONE BECOMING CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH SOME
SLOW-MOVING AND HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST PW
VALUES SHOULD BE ACROSS SRN/SOUTHEAST TX AND WESTERN LA WITH A
POOL OF OVER 1.5 INCH PWS WITH THE AID OF A S/SW LOW LEVEL JET OF
30 TO 40 KTS IN OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT SOME 1-2
INCH AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING
CONVECTION LOCALLY...WITH A MAIN AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SOME ISOLATED RUNOFF
PROBLEMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED UP ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. MAINTAINED GOOD WPC CONTINUITY BUT DID UPGRADE
AMOUNTS A BIT FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM LATEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
THE LATEST NAM CONEST THAT SEEMED A GOOD FIT WITH LATEST RADAR
AXIS/INFLOW TRENDS.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NRN CA...

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IS SPREADING MODERATE RAINS INTO COASTAL
WA/OLYMPIC PENINSULA. PRECIPITATION WITH THE DEEP LAYER WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WA CASCADES AS WELL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
OR COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN WA/NORTHERN OR CASCADES AND THE
COASTAL RANGES TONIGHT AND DOWN ACROSS NRN CA WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVELY LONG-FETCH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT
EXTENDS WELL SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE TROPICAL WESTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS CONTINUES TO BE CONFIRMED BY CIRA-LPW DATA AND
AMSU 89 GHZ DATA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...MUCH STRONGER SOUTHWEST
ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
ARRIVE AND ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLY STRONGER MOISTURE FLUX AND PW
ANOMALIES AS A RESULT. A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET UPWARDS OF 70 KTS
IS FORECAST WHICH WILL FOSTER 850/700 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES
OF 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN...AND PW VALUES OF 2
TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HEAVY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAINS ESPECIALLY FOR THE WA/OR/NRN
CA COASTAL RANGES...THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...AND CASCADES...WHERE
AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 INCHES OF PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME HEIGHTENED CONCERNS FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS.

GUIDANCE AGREES IN BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOWFALL TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS PERIOD. ON THE WINTER
WEATHER FRONT...THE DEEP ATMOSPHERIC RIVER FETCH WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...AND THE MODELS SUPPORT A RATHER SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST. THE RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOME LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WA/OR. PLEASE AGAIN CONSULT THE
LATEST QPFHSD FOR MORE DETAILS ON EXPECTED WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS.


DAYS 2 AND 3...

...WEST...

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY. AT 0Z THURSDAY
EXPECT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS TO BE APPROACHING THE CA
COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP PROGRESS THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
PLUME SOUTHWARD THROUGH CA INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THUS ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
CA...BUT EXPECT THIS THREAT TO SHIFT PRETTY RAPIDLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITHIN
THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO BEGIN TO DECREASE AS IT SHIFTS
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH PWAT ANOMALIES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH PERCENTILE. IT APPEARS THAT THE MOISTURE AXIS
BECOMES DISPLACED A BIT AHEAD OF THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX AND SYNOPTIC FORCING BY EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CA.
ALTHOUGH EXPECT 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES OF 3-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS...STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY...TO MAKE UP FOR THE DECREASING MOISTURE
AND STILL RESULT IN A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

THE SLIGHT RISK WAS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES OF
NORTHWEST CA AND SOUTHWEST OR ON DAY 2 (12Z WED-12Z THU)...WHERE
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR 3-6" OF QPF IN THAT 24 HOUR PERIOD.
ALSO ADDED IN A  DAY 3 (12Z THU-12Z FRI) MARGINAL RISK ACROSS
SOUTHERN CA. THE EXPECTED ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...COMBINED WITH GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY ALL POINT TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE DURATION OF ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3" (HIGHEST IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN)
SEEM PROBABLE IN THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN CA.
AS THIS WAVE /TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN
SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL DECREASE IN
FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL AMOUNTS. MODELS WERE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE WPC QPF FOLLOWS
CLOSE TO A MULTI MODEL BLEND.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE
FIRST...MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. OVERALL EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH
THE BETTER MOISTURE FLUX AND PWAT ANOMALIES GENERALLY STAYING
OFFSHORE. THUS WHILE A PERIOD OF STEADY PRECIPITATION CAN BE
EXPECTED...OVERALL LOOKING AT LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN WA/OR.
HOWEVER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IT DOES APPEAR LIKE THE BETTER
MOISTURE PLUME AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL TRY TO MOVE ASHORE
INTO SOUTHERN CA. THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS SOUTHERN CA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
AGAIN THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PRETTY PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE. AGAIN
MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HANDLING THIS FEATURE...AND
THUS WPC CONTINUED TO FOLLOW SOMETHING CLOSE TO A NAM/GFS/ECMWF
BLEND INTO DAY 3.

...SOUTHEAST TX/MS VALLEY INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...

CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOTHING TOO
INTENSE. EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
THE PLAINS CONSOLIDATES AND EJECTS EASTWARD...TAKING ON MORE OF A
NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALSO BECOME VERY
DIFFLUENT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH DUAL RIGHT ENTRANCE AND LEFT EXIT
REGION JET DYNAMICS BECOMING EVIDENT. THUS EXPECT THIS TO TURN
INTO A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTICALLY FORCED EVENT BY
THURSDAY...WITH BOTH PWATS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX BOTH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. THUS AS INSTABILITY ADVECTS NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...SEEMS TO BE A GOOD CONVECTIVE SETUP WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IS THE EXPECTED QUICK FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM.

AS ALWAYS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON CONVECTION AND A SWATH OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO THE EXACT SWATH OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS. THIS IS RELATED TO
THE EXACT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND THE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE
PROPAGATION THAT IS SEEN...WHICH IS ALWAYS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN DAYS
IN ADVANCE. WITH OUR DAY 2 QPF (0Z THU-0Z FRI) WE STARTED WITH A
SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SOUTH HIGH RES
ARW...AND THEN TRANSITIONED MORE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS POSITION.
OVERALL STILL FELT THAT THE 12Z GFS QPF OUTPUT WAS SUSPECT IN THAT
IT PUT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS AR INTO NORTHERN MS AND WESTERN
TN...AND NOT CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST. THE QPF
ORIENTATION OF THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEM FITS MORE OUR EXPECTATION OF
THIS SETUP...ALTHOUGH THOSE SOLUTIONS SHOW A VARYING AMOUNTS OF
EASTWARD PROPAGATION. THE GEM IS MOST PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE ECMWF
SLOWEST AND THE UKMET IN BETWEEN. THIS SEEMS TO FIT PAST
EXPERIENCE...WITH THE GEM TENDING TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION AND THE ECMWF SLOWEST. WHILE AT TIMES THE QUICK GEM CAN
BE CORRECT...IT DOES TEND TO BE A BIT TOO PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE
ECMWF USUALLY A BIT SLOW. THUS WPC DAY 2 QPF FOLLOWED A MIDDLE
GROUND SOLUTION...WHICH IS PROBABLY CLOSEST TO THE 12Z UKMET
SOLUTION. WOULD EXPECT THE HEAVIEST TOTALS TO BE ACROSS LA INTO
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MS. FURTHER NORTH MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME OF
THE BETTER MOISTURE BEING BLOCKED BY THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION...BUT
THE NEGATIVE TILT OF THE TROUGH SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT
AREA OF CONVECTION TO FORM FURTHER NORTH INTO TN VALLEY AS WELL.

AS WE HEAD INTO DAY 3 (0Z FRI-0Z SAT) THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHEAR
OUT AND LOSE BOTH THE BETTER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SETUP. THUS
CONVECTION THURSDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT
MOVES EAST...WITH GENERALLY JUST LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING IT TO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST. BY THE DAY 3 PERIOD MODELS
WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION
AND QPF OUTPUT. ONLY THE 12Z NAM WAS AN OUTLIER...BEING TOO QUICK
WITH THE SYSTEM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER THE 12Z PARALLEL NAM WAS IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE AS WELL.
THUS WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO A NON OPERATIONAL NAM BLEND
FOR THE DAY 3 FORECAST.

WITH REGARDS TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS...WILL CARRY A
MARGINAL RISK ON BOTH DAYS 2 AND 3. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE VERY ANOMALOUS PWATS AND MOISTURE FLUX...ALONG
WITH IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SETUP...A MARGINAL RISK IS WARRANTED AS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY.THE BEST CHANCE OF LOCALIZED
TRAINING APPEARS TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX INTO
WESTERN LA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS BOTH
MEAN WINDS AND CORFIDI VECTORS HAVE A LARGE COMPONENT PARALLEL TO
THE LOW LEVEL FRONT...AND CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE FRONTAL
ZONE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL OF MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE ROUNDS. THUS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AREA..AS CAN NOT RULE OUT THE EVENTUAL
NEED FOR AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT DAY.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

SCHICHTEL/CHENARD

24HR QP VT 19/00Z
 0.01 419637 423643 425653 427664 426669 429672 438679 443682
      449686 457689 460691 463695 467702 472703 475707 476712
      476717 475730 475735 475741 475745 472748 468752 468757
      465760 461767 460771 460776 459781 459786 456793 450804
      445812 442815 439816 435818 433823 428831 427836 427841
      429851 433858 435871 437875 433877 430878 426879 419877
      417875 417868 417862 415858 410855 404858 402860 400858
      397855 395850 395846 397842 401834 402831 400829 397825
      396822 390822 386822 383821 379823 377825 373831 365843
      357856 354861 351868 349876 351884 354891 355897 356901
      358912 357923 357936 356940 355943 353943 350947 349951
      348963 347972 346983 347993 348997 348003 353011 352014
      351020 352029 353035 352037 348046 339060 334067 331075
      325079 325070 324061 324057 321055 313052 310051 309047
      307040 309037 310032 308028 306027 300024 297021 292021
      284021 273020 270019 267015 256005 254002 252998 255987
      257986 258982 258976 256973 250970 249966 251963 261955
      266950 270947 276941 283937 287931 289927 290920 290912
      289908 291905 291899 293896 296887 298880 298871 298866
      297864 296853 299856 303861 305864 305869 309870 313869
      321866 325865 327861 326857 327853 333848 338840 340840
      342837 343833 348818 352819 355820 359819 367806 370801
      375796 383794 388790 391787 395784 398780 395779 389778
      385779 383780 382777 381770 375774 369780 365785 363787
      358789 347783 343783 341779 339776 336774 325780 320781
      319778 317768 318746 320738 323729 328714 332706 335699
      337693 340688 347675
 0.01 535212 536203 536197 535192 531178 527170 522164 511152
      491135 485133 476130 473131 471134 469139 464136 462135
      460138 454141 449143 446144 444142 434133 429139 426144
      425148 424158 420166 417172 414176 411179 409183 410188
      409193 405202 396199 391196 382194 377191 373190 371192
      375204 373209 369209 361208 355210 350215 352221 355227
      356235 357245 358253 362261 371270 375275 381279 389281
      396282 414290 421292 428292 440291 445289 453291 472298
      480300 486301 492303 497301 508291 513286 517276 519267
      521255 520245 519239 513220 512217 512211 514206 518208
      526215 532216 535212
 0.01 325881 321875 319877 316878 310880 307880 304882 304890
      302897 300903 299905 302907 304905 308905 311904 315903
      317898 320892 322887 325881
 0.25 531197 530189 527183 523176 520173 514168 507164 501160
      498157 497154 493148 492148 494152 491154 486154 471150
      465146 462146 459150 457157 456161 453162 448158 443155
      437158 435168 435175 433181 435191 436197 437201 437205
      433209 429208 426206 423208 421211 420217 417214 412213
      404210 393204 387203 384204 384208 387210 389215 382218
      378219 375221 371225 367230 366241 366248 368253 372260
      381264 395270 401274 408277 416279 422281 430282 438282
      451280 463279 475283 483285 491287 498287 503283 507279
      510271 516257 517251 517245 514237 508220 502207 500202
      499198 499193 501190 504189 510191 514194 518194 522200
      525203 528202 531197
 0.25 485233 486230 485229 484228 482229 483232 484234 485233
 0.25 456737 450715 449708 447703 444698 440694 430682 423675
      415671 412670 406671 402672 397674 393676 389680 380685
      373690 365694 361693 358696 354701 352705 348724 346734
      347747 348758 352767 355771 357771 360770 365762 368753
      369742 370737 372731 376722 380714 385708 390705 395705
      398709 400716 402720 405724 411727 419730 423734 425739
      425750 428761 432762 437761 441757 444757 447758 450755
      453750 455744 456737
 0.25 369822 368817 366819 361823 356830 352835 348840 346843
      345849 348852 351850 356844 360839 363832 367825 367822
      369822
 0.25 345028 345021 341017 336019 332023 330029 330038 330047
      329055 330059 333058 336053 339047 342041 344035 345028
 0.25 346936 347926 346920 345909 342901 338897 334901 322910
      315920 303927 285947 277956 273961 270968 272974 273977
      272980 264994 266999 268000 276999 282997 291996 299996
      304996 311000 317004 322007 327007 331002 335993 337976
      338968 341959 346936
 0.50 511260 514251 513242 509229 504216 499209 493205 489201
      488198 489193 495183 499176 499172 497169 493163 487159
      482157 476156 471155 466152 463153 461158 460168 456168
      453166 447164 443166 443174 441182 441187 442190 445194
      452196 457193 461190 468190 473194 474196 474201 471205
      469206 465205 460203 450212 440214 436216 429215 422224
      418225 416223 416219 414216 391209 393215 392220 389221
      384225 381226 378228 376234 374243 374250 377256 382260
      390263 405269 419273 431275 438275 443274 455270 460269
      467270 476273 489279 496280 502278 505273 506269 511260
 0.50 517182 516179 513176 511175 508174 505173 502173 502175
      503178 504181 506182 509184 512184 514184 517182
 0.50 487233 488231 487228 485226 484225 484224 483224 482225
      480226 480227 481229 481230 482232 483234 484235 486234
      487233
 0.50 442708 441703 436700 426698 425686 423682 419681 413682
      408685 407689 410694 418700 419705 422711 427722 430725
      435721 439719 441713 442708
 0.50 377703 375702 373704 372706 370709 369712 368714 366719
      366721 369722 370719 372716 373714 374711 376708 377705
      377703
 0.50 343932 343924 342919 338906 333906 330909 321917 315924
      306931 299937 291945 285952 281956 278962 275972 277976
      276982 275990 277992 280991 283988 292988 302986 313981
      321976 328967 334959 339947 341941 343932
 1.00 510251 511245 510240 508232 500214 488205 484202 480203
      473209 471211 467210 461208 456213 447216 440217 435220
      432222 432227 431231 426231 417228 414222 412218 408219
      402225 390229 386232 384236 384242 385247 388255 394260
      400263 411264 418266 427267 434266 442264 455259 461257
      467257 472259 480264 486268 493273 497273 501271 504266
      504260 505256 506255 510251
 1.00 488236 489234 490232 489229 489226 487224 486224 484223
      483222 481223 480223 479225 479226 479228 480230 481231
      481233 482234 482236 484237 486237 487236 488236
 1.00 482183 483180 483177 483175 483171 484169 484166 485164
      483163 481163 481168 482170 479172 478175 477179 477183
      479185 481185 482183
 1.00 463178 463176 461175 459176 458177 457177 456179 455181
      455183 457184 458184 460183 460182 462181 462180 463178
 1.00 332945 333935 333924 332919 330917 324921 314929 309933
      303939 299943 294947 285958 281965 281968 281972 284975
      287975 295973 303973 309969 320960 325956 330949 332945
 1.50 508245 507239 506234 502225 501219 498216 488208 485206
      481206 477207 474210 456215 448218 441219 439225 439227
      441229 440229 434235 429235 424233 407225 405228 401230
      395233 391236 389241 391248 393253 400258 409261 419261
      430261 444256 461250 466250 472252 481256 488262 492266
      495268 498269 500266 500261 497251 496246 493243 490240
      487239 482237 477227 476223 479221 485221 489224 492237
      495242 499245 504247 508245
 1.50 468230 469228 468226 467226 466227 465229 466230 468230
      468230
 1.50 327943 328939 328935 326928 325925 322926 317928 308936
      301944 293952 287960 284965 284970 286971 297967 307962
      316955 323947 327943
 2.00 502241 504238 503235 502230 500222 498219 495216 489211
      483208 477210 475212 475217 481218 488221 491223 492228
      494236 500241 502241
 2.00 497263 497255 494249 491243 485240 482239 481236 478230
      476228 473228 468232 465231 461233 455232 448232 439235
      434238 431238 427236 416231 409229 405233 396236 394240
      394245 398250 402254 407257 421258 431256 441251 450249
      461245 467245 473247 480249 486254 491260 493263 497263
 2.00 470220 470217 468215 463213 459215 456216 452220 448220
      444220 445225 448226 452225 455226 459228 463227 466224
      469221 470220
 2.00 321943 322932 321929 319929 314932 308939 301947 295954
      292958 288961 286966 290966 299962 307957 314952 321943
      321943
 3.00 499235 500232 499230 499227 498224 498223 496221 494222
      494223 493225 493228 494229 494230 495233 496234 498235
      499235
 3.00 489216 489215 488213 487213 486212 486213 484213 483214
      484215 485216 487217 489216 489216
 3.00 480241 480239 479236 479235 478233 478232 476231 475230
      473231 473232 472233 471236 471238 472239 473241 474242
      475243 476243 477243 478243 480241
 3.00 465239 467237 466234 464233 464234 463236 463238 463239
      465239 465239
 3.00 463223 464221 463218 463217 461217 460218 459218 457219
      456219 456221 457223 458224 460225 462225 463223
 3.00 450239 451237 449236 448236 446238 447240 449240 450239
 3.00 446240 445240 445238 444237 442236 441236 439238 439241
      440242 442242 443242 445240 446240
 3.00 431248 430243 428240 423236 420235 416235 413238 411245
      412248 414250 417252 421251 424251 429250 431248
 3.00 402244 400244 402244 402244
 4.00 478238 478235 477235 476232 474233 473234 473237 474238
      475240 477239 478238
 4.00 462221 462220 461220 460220 459222 460223 461223 462221
      462221
 4.00 426244 427242 426241 425239 424239 423238 421238 420238
      419239 418239 418242 418244 419245 420245 422246 423246
      425245 426244

24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 342273 353275 363277 385279 388279 392281 399286 410287
      414287 418288 429287 438287 442287 448288 454291 457292
      459295 465303 467308 470312 475319 480316 493300 498293
      500292 503292 508293 509286 511281 514274 516270 521262
      523256 524251 525219 524217 526216 529214 533209 535201
      536196 536190 534185 534179 521165 514158 511154 507153
      502151 498147 492139 489134 484133 481134 476134 473139
      475139 475142 473145 470144 468142 465137 462134 459132
      454134 452129 451122 448116 446112 442110 438112 435109
      430106 426105 421105 418106 414106 410107 409105 407093
      405088 402083 400087 395085 383082 378079 373079 366085
      362087 358086 356084 352084 350088 348090 349095 351101
      352104 351108 350111 347110 345106 342096 338095 336099
      335105 333110 330122 324126 316132 318142 316147 314152
      309158 307162 307168 306175 309177 306190 304194 303200
      300204 300211 306217 314225 320231 322234 322239 324250
      325256 330262 334266 339270
 0.01 508721 507708 505694 502686 498677 497673 495670 492656
      490645 485641 483636 481634 474631 466633 460629 449638
      444645 440648 439650 434652 432655 426661 425668 425674
      425679 431718 433728 431737 430742 432745 429752 433759
      435763 439763 441756 447749 452743 459746 466748 471751
      478755 486753 494751 497748 499747 506733 508721
 0.01 457204 457202 458200 458197 457194 455196 455197 453198
      453199 452200 451201 450202 449205 447207 447209 448211
      450210 451210 452209 453208 454207 455206 456205 457204
 0.01 421687 417679 412671 411663 408660 399661 393666 390672
      391676 395684 400693 405701 411705 415705 416703 421694
      421687
 0.01 428923 428911 426904 419889 415874 412866 408861 395856
      390851 385846 377837 364831 351828 339836 325833 311832
      308833 304835 300839 295840 292839 289845 287854 287861
      284875 279889 275894 269898 258905 255909 251915 244927
      241932 237939 235946 236952 237960 240968 241978 242985
      242994 245001 249005 251006 255007 273007 276007 280006
      286004 290997 293990 299979 303973 307968 312964 320963
      330963 334963 337961 342958 347955 361951 368949 375947
      382944 387939 402939 410938 417936 424929 428923
 0.01 405785 403783 398788 393791 388794 384797 383804 385806
      388801 393796 397796 398793 402790 405785
 0.25 516259 517251 515242 510230 504216 501210 494208 488205
      485204 482205 474211 469212 463212 458213 454215 449217
      442217 437218 433217 428213 424206 422204 419204 415206
      406204 403203 401200 397197 392194 388194 383190 379186
      375184 368180 366178 364175 361164 364165 366167 371169
      374168 378169 384174 386176 389175 394174 404177 413183
      417182 419177 423176 429181 432182 435187 437190 440191
      445188 455182 460181 463178 469178 474182 479187 485190
      490188 495187 500185 506185 511184 512180 510177 507171
      503167 497162 492158 487157 480158 475158 469155 464152
      462156 462160 461169 458173 455168 453159 451154 448148
      440137 437132 435129 431129 426131 422133 419135 413134
      402127 398126 397129 396138 392142 386140 380139 377137
      377133 375125 372120 368121 363120 360121 360125 357132
      354137 352139 350143 349150 349156 350163 346166 341164
      317159 312163 313168 317174 320180 327187 329193 329200
      331212 334219 336225 344235 348239 354242 360244 367246
      380247 395249 406253 414256 427258 451258 463259 475263
      481267 486271 493279 497284 500285 502284 510275 515267
      516259
 0.25 501251 499249 498246 496244 494241 492238 491237 489236
      490239 491242 493244 494246 497249 499251 501251
 0.25 396894 395888 391886 386875 382868 376859 370851 366848
      361847 355846 350847 342853 333858 324863 308872 304875
      302879 296888 291893 283900 275906 272909 269913 265921
      264927 263932 259943 255952 254959 254965 257975 260979
      264981 269984 275983 281978 288970 294963 301956 309952
      317948 325943 334938 341932 344930 350928 356928 360926
      371924 377923 380921 387913 396894
 0.50 512268 514261 515254 513244 512239 510235 506226 503218
      501214 497213 489213 486214 484217 489224 491233 496241
      501246 503251 503255 501256 498255 493247 491244 486243
      485247 486253 489260 493269 497277 499281 503279 507273
      512268
 0.50 479241 480239 480236 480234 479233 479231 478230 477228
      475229 473231 473232 472234 471236 472238 472239 473241
      474242 475242 476243 477243 478242 479241
 0.50 465224 466222 466219 464217 463216 462216 461216 459216
      458217 457217 456218 454218 454221 454223 455224 456226
      457226 458228 459229 461229 462228 463227 464226 465224
      465224
 0.50 452240 451228 452225 450223 445222 442224 441229 436230
      434233 430235 426232 421231 417228 416219 415215 413212
      383192 376187 368182 360179 357179 354181 351184 348182
      346174 344169 342166 334165 326162 322162 318166 331177
      334184 337194 337204 340211 344218 353224 356232 362236
      400246 404248 407247 416248 425249 432249 438248 444245
      449242 452240
 0.50 452176 452165 451160 448155 443149 438141 436138 431136
      427138 425141 424144 424148 425153 429161 427165 429169
      433171 436174 440178 445178 452176
 0.50 406158 407156 406155 404154 402155 402158 403159 405160
      406158
 0.50 373143 373142 372141 371140 370140 368138 366139 365139
      364139 364141 364144 366145 367146 369146 371146 373145
      373143
 0.50 364198 363195 361193 361192 360191 358192 359194 360195
      361195 362197 364198 364198
 0.50 377898 377891 376887 374875 371868 366860 364858 359857
      350855 343858 337863 323872 309880 288902 285909 280916
      272928 268935 265944 263952 262956 263961 266968 269971
      273972 279970 285966 290959 296954 303950 309947 316943
      323939 335930 341926 347920 359912 366909 371906 377898
 0.50 363157 363155 363154 362154 362157 363157
 0.50 356200 356198 356196 355195 354194 352193 350191 350192
      350193 351195 352196 351197 353200 355201 356200
 1.00 502236 502233 502231 501230 501227 500225 499222 498219
      497219 495219 494220 493221 493222 492225 493227 493230
      494230 495233 496235 498236 499236 501236 502236
 1.00 447165 446162 445160 444157 442154 440152 438150 435148
      432150 431154 432157 434160 436162 437165 440167 443167
      445166 447165
 1.00 427242 426239 423237 418234 413232 413228 414224 414219
      412217 407214 399206 390200 381193 372186 367183 361182
      358186 363190 370198 374202 377207 381210 386212 390216
      396219 401222 404223 403226 400227 393226 389222 386218
      383218 381220 379226 380231 384235 390238 397240 408241
      420244 427242
 1.00 375223 375221 374219 372218 370218 368219 369222 371224
      373225 375223 375223
 1.00 365220 366219 365216 363214 362213 360212 358211 357211
      355211 356214 357216 357217 359218 361219 362221 364221
      365220
 1.00 365894 363886 361880 358872 353869 347866 342868 331874
      321881 310888 299895 294899 290904 291913 288919 281929
      273940 272948 272954 275956 278956 285954 295947 300944
      307942 317937 329929 334925 336919 336914 337911 340908
      343908 349909 353905 361900 365896 365894
 1.00 347203 346191 344182 344171 341167 336167 340170 341175
      339176 337172 332165 328166 330168 334176 338179 340183
      340188 342193 342199 343203 347203
 1.50 439161 440158 439156 438156 437155 436158 437159 438161
      439161 439161
 1.50 410225 412223 412221 411219 411218 410217 408217 406217
      406218 406219 406220 406222 407224 409225 410225 410226
      410225
 1.50 403216 402212 399208 392203 386198 379192 371187 364184
      363187 365189 367191 373198 381204 389208 396215 399217
      403216
 1.50 390234 391232 391229 390229 389227 389226 387224 385224
      384225 383228 384230 384231 385233 386233 387234 389234
      390234
 1.50 343182 344180 343177 342175 342173 343171 343170 342168
      341168 340168 341170 342173 342175 342177 342179 342182
      343182 343182
 1.50 337174 337173 335171 334169 334168 332169 333170 335171
      335172 336174 336175 337174
 1.50 346877 345874 341874 334875 330878 327882 318888 309893
      299899 295901 293904 297909 295913 290922 278939 278943
      279946 283947 293943 298941 304940 309938 314935 322928
      326926 328921 326917 321914 322910 326906 327900 330896
      336888 342882 346877
 1.50 323919 321919 321920 321922 323920 323919
 1.50 319924 317922 315923 315924 315925 317925 319924
 2.00 400216 401214 400212 400211 399209 397209 395210 394207
      393207 395210 396212 396213 398215 399215 399216 400216
 2.00 387203 386200 384198 382197 380195 378193 376191 373189
      371188 368187 369190 370192 373195 375197 379197 381199
      383202 386203 387203
 2.00 326891 323890 319892 315894 309898 306903 302909 299914
      292925 288931 287935 285936 287941 299938 307937 310935
      308932 306930 305926 306922 315911 317905 321900 326891
 3.00 298926 298924 297923 297924 297926 297927 298926

24HR QP VT 21/00Z
 0.01 521261 520254 517246 515240 512232 509226 506219 503213
      500208 493206 490205 490201 491196 486197 474201 467199
      458199 454202 450197 448194 449192 452184 453179 454176
      457169 463167 465169 468170 482176 490187 492189 494188
      498193 499196 502197 507193 510191 513194 515195 514192
      514187 516185 521181 523177 519171 512159 510157 507155
      502159 498162 491162 487156 478154 471151 468147 467127
      471109 475106 474103 475099 475092 475087 477084 478082
      482080 485080 488083 493087 495087 495083 494079 491077
      489073 485071 481067 474064 461062 459063 457061 454061
      451063 447066 442065 438068 434073 433078 431081 428088
      421085 417077 415071 412067 408063 407057 406055 398055
      395059 389061 385062 383060 380060 378062 377065 374062
      370059 367053 365051 361051 356053 350055 346056 342056
      334054 325054 318054 314058 313067 309072 301083 294094
      292096 292099 293106 292115 293123 292134 292143 287156
      285165 283170 285175 289182 290186 291191 291196 291203
      293209 296214 300218 308229 318240 325249 332259 335264
      340270 345272 352276 381286 411296 416300 420306 432315
      447321 459321 470320 480316 482305 484301 487298 490294
      496292 498291 500287 504280 512272 518267 521261
 0.01 499152 496148 492142 489137 484135 477134 474133 472135
      470138 473141 477140 483141 488146 491150 492153 496154
      499152
 0.01 496954 494941 491927 482907 472887 468882 466875 462861
      459849 455837 449827 444817 433798 428787 423775 419764
      412758 404752 397747 380736 371732 362726 358725 355727
      346733 330745 326749 324755 312757 309757 307764 304774
      297794 297799 296804 293816 289826 287831 284835 275842
      270849 265858 261868 257878 254887 255888 256892 258898
      257905 257910 257918 258924 259931 261935 263937 269936
      270939 268941 266946 262956 261961 262966 263972 266974
      272975 276977 282979 288977 294977 296976 297973 298960
      298953 299947 300933 299925 298920 298913 304913 309914
      315914 323907 333903 337904 342908 345911 350914 371912
      380916 384919 387922 396928 405934 414938 418940 423945
      430950 434952 440952 443952 445954 448957 457964 468965
      471965 474967 479967 488960 496954
 0.01 444171 443166 443163 440161 434155 434150 437146 434141
      431140 429142 424150 421150 417147 414144 409143 408147
      413150 418158 423164 430171 434173 439174 444171
 0.01 438973 433968 426964 423963 420961 412956 406954 396954
      391959 387965 383986 380995 378004 378008 382008 385006
      389006 396002 403998 409995 412993 414989 417980 421973
      438973 438973
 0.01 343070 340067 337067 333066 328064 323065 321069 322074
      325078 330077 334075 338073 341072 343070
 0.25 498229 498226 497226 496225 495226 495228 495230 497230
      498229
 0.25 484276 483264 478256 472249 466244 461235 459231 454229
      449227 444228 441232 438232 434234 429231 430227 433225
      435221 431217 422216 419212 415209 411211 407206 393197
      384193 379186 372180 367174 366170 366162 370153 375144
      376139 376134 373124 370121 365119 361120 358123 353117
      347110 344102 341093 337089 333088 321097 317104 312105
      310102 307103 305108 307112 309115 311119 314122 323123
      326122 330123 339126 342129 345133 346137 347141 353135
      357136 359140 362148 360152 357156 351159 347161 342162
      333160 328160 323158 306153 304155 305158 307162 311170
      314191 316198 320206 323214 328220 334227 342233 347241
      353247 364259 371265 379269 390272 402277 410281 420286
      428290 437292 446291 453290 461288 469287 474286 478284
      481280 484276
 0.25 478233 476231 475232 475235 476236 476235 478234 478233
 0.25 461220 461218 461217 460218 460220 461220 461220
 0.25 461927 459918 456911 452904 448899 437890 430878 425872
      422865 419856 418854 418849 417837 415829 413823 411820
      405815 398815 392819 385816 380816 376817 373817 368812
      367800 363792 364783 364778 362774 360771 358772 347802
      345804 340804 335809 330814 324817 318820 310822 303827
      298831 294836 290841 285855 282861 278861 274867 272871
      275871 276874 276878 274885 274894 278900 279908 281912
      283914 295903 305896 314886 320883 328881 332882 334884
      342887 357888 374887 381888 387891 399899 410909 420917
      425921 430925 443931 454935 459932 461927
 0.25 397085 398081 398077 394074 390073 386074 382077 378074
      373065 369063 366067 366072 367077 368084 369090 372093
      374096 373100 378101 381096 384093 389092 396087 397085
 0.50 456271 457264 458256 456251 452247 446244 441244 431244
      424236 416229 415215 409215 404210 397203 387198 371183
      359179 354181 353184 356189 361192 363193 364197 362200
      358201 353197 350193 349190 350186 348181 346176 345171
      342165 336163 330162 325160 319159 313159 312161 312164
      315168 322176 328184 331195 333200 336205 343213 350221
      355229 362236 369245 372250 376253 385258 397263 403266
      408269 426281 432283 436280 439278 445275 451270 456271
 0.50 429893 408859 403849 397843 391836 380836 365843 354842
      354830 352824 349822 344822 341825 340831 338835 336839
      333841 330840 327837 324833 321831 315832 311834 307837
      301844 296851 293860 291870 290883 289886 290890 292894
      293897 296896 300894 307888 314882 321876 328871 334870
      339871 347876 356877 362877 368876 377874 382875 386878
      392885 399890 406894 417898 420899 423897 429893
 0.50 347114 343109 342102 340096 335095 331099 326100 323104
      323111 325113 327114 333116 340118 345116 347114
 1.00 424249 424243 422240 414238 413230 414224 413219 409218
      406220 401226 394226 386221 380220 376219 373216 366215
      360210 356209 355211 356214 361220 368225 376228 386242
      393246 401249 405250 409249 412249 417250 421250 424249
 1.00 402216 403214 402212 401211 400210 399208 397207 395206
      394206 392207 392208 391209 391210 391211 393213 393214
      394215 396217 397218 399218 400218 401218 402216
 1.00 373193 373191 373189 371188 369186 368185 366185 365184
      364184 363183 361183 360185 360186 362187 364188 365189
      367190 369191 370192 370193 372193 373193
 1.00 355207 349199 345189 344183 344175 343170 342168 339167
      329163 323162 320163 321166 328172 333175 336180 339190
      342199 346204 350206 353208 355207
 1.00 371855 369853 369854 371855 371855
 1.00 361863 361861 360859 359859 358858 356858 355859 354861
      353864 354866 355867 357866 359866 359865 360864 361863
 1.00 313850 311848 307850 304855 302861 301867 299874 299880
      300884 302884 305882 309877 312872 313864 309859 311854
      313850
 1.50 411228 412226 412224 411221 409221 407222 406224 407227
      408228 410229 411228
 1.50 403242 402242 401240 401239 400237 398237 397238 397240
      399241 400243 402243 403242
 1.50 399213 398212 397210 396210 396212 396213 398213 399213
 1.50 392235 391233 391232 390231 388230 387229 387228 385227
      384228 383230 384232 386232 387233 388234 389235 391236
      392235

$$





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