Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FXUS04 KWBC 262138
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
537 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 27/0000 UTC THRU JUN 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

18Z UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO PRELIM DAY 1 QPF..INCREASING AMOUNTS ACRS PARTS
OF NCNTL TX AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE FAVORABLE INFLOW AND HI
PWS/INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF STGR TSTMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN OVERNIGHT.   OTHER CHANGES REFLECT LATEST HRRR AND RADAR
INPUT.

...OHIO VALLEY / LOWER GREAT LAKES / MID ATLANTIC...

WIDESPREAD SWATH OF GENEROUS 2-3 INCH RAINS AND EMBEDDED HIGHER
TOTALS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF A DEVELOPING CYCLONE
AFFECTING CENTRAL INDIANA TO NORTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL...IN COORDINATION WITH
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER...WAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD OVER IN/OH WITH
THE 18Z UPDATE.

A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. STEEP HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE MID MS VLY AND OH/TN VLYS DURING THE DAY ONE
PERIOD...NUDGING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SIGNAL REMAINS IN PLACE FOR A SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT...WITH THE ROBUST COOL-SEASON DYNAMICS IN PLAY
ALONG WITH THE SUMMERTIME DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK INSABILITY.
IN TERMS OF THE FORCING...STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
COUPLE WITH A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION CIRCULATION TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. A POSSIBLE INHIBITOR FOR EXCESSIVE
SHORT TERM RAINFALL RATES (WITHIN 6 HOURS) WILL BE THE RELATIVE
LACK OF INSTABILITY. DEEP LIFT...HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY COMPENSATE
TO MAINTAIN LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS SUCH AS WAS SEEN OVER ILLINOIS EARLY FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS MUCAPES OF 500-1000+ J/KG AS FAR NORTH AS
THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING. GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
FARTHER SOUTH...BUT WITH STRONGLY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A
SWEEPING SURFACE COLD FRONT...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR WITH RELATIVELYI LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING...AS EVIDENCED BY CONSECUTIVE CYCLES IN
WHICH THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE ONLY SMALL SCALE
STREAKES OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

WPC USED A 60/40 PERCENT BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH OUR
IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE...BUT ALSO CONSULTED THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF
WHEN DEPICTING THE AXIS OF RAINFALL OVER IN/OH/MI. NO
DETERMINISTIC MODEL WAS IDEAL OR STEADY FROM RUN TO RUN...BUT THE
GFS DID APPEAR TOO FAR NORTH AND WAS MORE JUMPY THAN SOME MODELS
FROM RUN TO RUN.


...MID ATLANTIC...

A STATIONARY AND EVENTUAL WARM FRONT...RECENTLY ENHANCED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND EASTERN NC. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION GIVEN NEUTRAL UPPER
FORCING. BY SATURDAY...FORCING MECHANISMS WILL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS (INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT)
AHEAD OF THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE MID MS VLY WILL
STRENGTHEN THE LOW-MID LAYER WAA AND MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.
THE WAA/WARM FRONTAL DYNAMICS ALONG WITH MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND PWATS CLIMBING TO AROUND 2.00" WILL LEAD TO AN
EXPANDING...STRENGTHENING WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...YIELDING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NOVA/MD/DC/PA EARLY...AND THEN SCATTERED STRONGER CONVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON.


...SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE PROVIDED BY
UPPER FLOW THAT IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG BUT IS HIGHLY DIFFLUENT
DOWNWIND OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS ALONG WITH EASTERLY
UPSLOPE NEAR A SURFACE FRONT DROPPING THROUGH NEW MEXICO SHOULD
YIELD A FOCUSED CONVECTIVE EVENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ANOMALOUS PW VALUES FAVOR
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...ALL SHOW POCKETS OF HEAVIER TOTALS (1-3")
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS OF
NM...WHICH WILL BE AIDED BY THE AVAILABLE DEEP-LAYER INSTBY WITH
MUCAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY LOW FFG
OVER THIS REGION (3 HOURLY VALUES AROUND 2.00 INCHES...6 HOURLY
AROUND 2.5 INCHES)...LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES WILL BE LIKELY SHOULD
THESE AMOUNTS VERIFY.


...SOUTHERN STATES...

WPC CONTINUED TO FOLLOW MODEL CONSENSUS...AS THEY SHOULD HAVE A
HANDLE ON THE MODERATELY FORCED CONVECTION ALONG A SWEEPING COLD
FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE...TYPICAL SUMMER MOISTURE/HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MID
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH AREAL
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY. ONE
OF THE MORE INTERESTING FEATURES...THE MODELS ALL SHOW A SUBTLE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL-EASTERN
GULF COAST PER WV AND LONGWAVE IR SATELLITE LOOPS...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING PICKED UP BY THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND SCOOTING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST (GA/SC) COAST OVERNIGHT FRI-SAT. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE
OF THERMODYNAMICS IN PLACE (PWATS 2.00-2.25" AND MUCAPES
1500-2500+ J/KG)...EXPECT POCKETS OF HEAVY
SHOWERS/TSTMS...PARTICULARLY DURING PEAK HEATING WITH INTERACTION
OF GULF/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE HIGH-RES
MODELS IS FOR A LOCAL MAXIMA IN QPF (AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 1-2+
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS ALONG THE GULF COAST OVER THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AS WELL AS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST GA AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST FL.


DAYS 2/3...


...MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

DEEP MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH A SYNOPTIC
SCALE SYSTEM BRINGS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST DURING DAY 2. THE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING DAY 3...PRODUCING QPF...BUT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
DROPS DRAMATICALLY. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MAIN OUTLIER DURING DAY 2
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...AS IT IS TOO DEEP
AND FAST WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE WPC QPF ON
DAY 2 WAS BASED MAINLY ON THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z NAM. BY DAY 3...THE
12Z GFS SLOWS DOWN TO MATCH MOST OTHER 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO
THE DAY 3 QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL BLEND...LED BY THE 12Z
ECMWF.

AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM CLOSES OFF OVER OH AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY
2...THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION MODE SHIFTS FROM CONVECTIVE TO
SYNOPTIC. INSTABILITY PRESENT SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW CROSSING
THE OH VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN PA INTO WESTERN NY STATE IS FORCED
UP AND OVER A DEVELOPING OCCLUSION INTO A FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED
AXIS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST OH AND WESTERN PA THROUGH MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY STATE. A 35 TO 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST
FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR (WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) UP AND OVER THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN ELEVATED CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NY
STATE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. ALONG THIS AXIS OF
LIFT...A STRIPE OF 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES OF QPF WAS STRETCHED. AT
THE POINT...THE LINE BETWEEN FLOOD VS FLASH FLOOD BECOMES BLURRED
AS INSTABILITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNIMPORTANT IN THE
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION PROCESS. THEREFORE...NO SIGHT RISK AREA
WAS ASSIGNED TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY STATE INTO NEW
ENGLAND.

FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE OCCLUSION OR
WARM FRONT...INSTABILITY REMAINS A VIABLE ENTITY FOR PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION. WHILE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY BECOMES ELEVATED ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH/WESTERNMOST NY STATE/MUCH OF PA INTO WESTERN
NJ...ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES. THE BULK
OF THE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AS A 35 TO 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL INFLOW PUMPS 1.75 TO 2.00
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. FOR THIS REASON...A
SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREAS.

DURING DAY 3...THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN
NY STATE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
START TO WANE AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW...THE FLOW BECOMES UPSLOPE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS...0.10 TO
0.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED...WITH LOCAL 0.50 INCH QPF AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.


...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST...

A SLOW MOVING COLD CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST DURING DAY 2...BEFORE
BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY AND WASHING OUT DURING DAY 3 ALONG THE
GULF COAST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BECOME FOCUSED BY THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FOR
THE MOST PART...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SETUP...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF
THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS.

DURING DAY 2...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWS AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY. MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS SLOW AS WELL...AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY
TRACKS NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FOCUSES MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES) AND MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE RESULTANT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEPOSIT AN AXIS OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES OF QPF
STRETCHING FROM FAR EAST TX ACROSS SOUTHERN LA INTO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE OF FL. LOCAL TRAINING COULD RESULT IN HIGHER
AMOUNTS...WHICH MAY IN TURN RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND HIGH THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES SUGGEST THAT ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
LIKELY.

THE FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT DURING DAY 3...AS THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES
THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FLOW. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
REMAINS IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN LA THROUGH NORTHERN FL...WHICH
SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. MOST MODELS HAVE A WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE BOTTOM OF THE MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
OVER NORTHERN FL...WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THERE. THE ADDITIONAL LIFT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF
0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS NORTHERN FL...WHICH IS EMBEDDED
IN AN AXIS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF A STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN LA
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL.


...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...

A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DURING DAY
2...BEFORE IT TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MIDWEST AND OH
VALLEY DURING DAY 3. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH THE
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SYSTEMS PRODUCES CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY DURING DAY 2. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE SYSTEMS...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS.

AS THE SHORT WAVE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 2...IT PUSHES A COLD FRONT AHEAD
OF IT. AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE SYSTEMS...A 25 TO 35
KNOT LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR INTO MN/WI/IA AND NORTHERN MO. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE...ALONG WITH DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE DEVELOPING STORMS
SHOULD BE MAINLY OUTFLOWED DOMINATED...SO THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LOW. AN LARGE AREA OF 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN
ACROSS WESTERN WI...CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN MO WITH
THE CONVECTION. LOCAL 0.75 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DEVELOP.

THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY DURING DAY 3. THE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON DAY 2...BUT THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.
THIS COULD ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH STORMS. CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS IL AND IN...WHERE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED.
THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL IN...AS RAINFALL
DURING DAY 1 LOWERED THE VALUES. SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED BY DAY
3...SO WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


...ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BEGINS TO SHRINK AND RETROGRADE. WEAK SHORT WAVES INTERACTING WITH
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM
DURING DAYS 2 AND 3. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE WEAK SHORT WAVES. IN AN ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE
DIFFERENCES...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS. THE 12Z NAM USED ALSO UTILIZED...AS ITS INCREASED
RESOLUTION BETTER DEPICTS THE HIGHER TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BEGINS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE DURING DAY 2. WEAK SHORT
WAVES RIDING DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST STATES COULD PROVIDE LOCAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. A LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHEAST
FLOW TRANSPORTS MOISTURE (IN THE FORM OF 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES) INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...WHICH BECOMES MORE OF AN UPSLOPE FLOW WITH TIME.
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROVIDE A LARGE AREA OF MARGINAL
TO LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
AZ/NM AND SOUTHERN CO...WHICH IS INITIALLY TIED TO THE TERRAIN.
THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF
QPF ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...AS WELL AS
SOUTH CENTRAL CO. LOCAL 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM...AND THIS MUCH QPF COULD RESULT IN LOCAL
FLOODING ISSUES. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF MID LEVEL FORCING MAKES
ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING LESS OF A THREAT.

DURING DAY 3...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
WEST...ALONG A LARGE AREA OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST STATES
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION.
UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NM AND SOUTHERN CO...AND THE UPSLOPE
FLOW SUPPORTS LOCAL 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS THERE. DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AZ ALSO PROMOTES
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION (WHEN COMPARED TO DAY 2)...WHERE LOCAL
0.10 TO 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

A SHORT WAVE COMING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
MIDDLE OF DAY 3 CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE LAST
PORTION OF THE PERIOD. THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE BRINGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.25 INCHES (WHICH IS BETWEEN TWO
AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT...AS THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TRACKS INTO WEST CENTRAL CANADA. LOCAL
0.10 TO 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ROCKIES...BUT MOST LOCATIONS PROBABLY RECEIVE LESS THAN
0.10 INCHES.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


BURKE/SULLIVAN/HAYES

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 547966 547953 546944 545938 544933 544923 544912 544907
      542904 542893 542888 540885 540882 537878 533872 527868
      524861 523852 519845 519834 521826 523819 525810 528801
      530791 532784 533776 533766 532761 531755 529748 525741
      520735 517734 513735 508737 504743 498755 495761 493768
      490777 488787 486793 486802 487813 488821 494837 494844
      493850 493862 499874 504888 506896 508900 507905 505909
      501910 498912 499916 495920 491924 484934 478947 477951
      477957 474967 471974 471978 472983 469986 465989 462994
      464001 466005 469008 476009 481007 485005 490001 495998
      521005 527005 531002 536997 538992 541985 543975 547966
 0.01 446214 445209 446204 440204 434207 427206 427212 424215
      418218 417230 420231 422229 428226 435228 440220 444215
      446214
 0.01 453098 450094 443093 438090 433092 431090 428089 426089
      427094 429097 432098 434100 437100 443099 450100 453098
 0.01 451801 450776 448753 446747 444743 439734 434726 432723
      428721 422717 416717 409720 404719 399719 397718 391715
      387711 382709 376706 372704 372698 372681 370676 366675
      361674 358677 352683 348690 333746 326760 320772 315780
      313785 313792 312801 305804 300806 296805 291801 282794
      277790 271791 261792 254793 251800 248808 247810 249813
      254816 261820 261822 259823 260827 267829 277831 284833
      286834 287837 286852 287871 288877 287881 287891 286911
      285922 284929 287938 289943 290950 290961 290966 292970
      295978 295987 295997 297005 298014 297019 296021 293035
      293044 300049 303056 302065 301068 298068 294066 286061
      271054 264051 257052 250052 246056 246059 247062 250067
      256075 265087 276096 302118 309120 313120 316118 324111
      330108 336106 339105 342102 346098 351094 358090 361088
      361084 366084 370085 375086 379085 383077 397066 402062
      405058 404058 396056 394050 377032 373030 372027 367020
      363015 360009 356000 353995 352991 355980 358971 368939
      373928 376921 380916 391906 396901 401898 416887 423882
      425879 426873 448819 451809 451801
 0.01 409103 410101 410098 408096 406095 404097 404098 404100
      404102 404104 405107 407110 407107 408105 409103 409103
 0.01 397201 393196 390192 389188 385187 381190 376188 375185
      372184 367183 365185 366188 371191 377194 382197 387200
      394202 397201
 0.25 516947 517938 514934 510934 507935 501942 496948 491955
      489960 488967 489975 491978 499975 507974 511972 513968
      510957 515949 516947
 0.25 441793 440786 439779 436767 434760 431755 429750 425746
      419741 412737 399730 391727 384724 377724 372727 369727
      368725 366720 365714 363710 360707 357705 352708 348718
      345727 342736 340749 336759 333767 328773 321776 317780
      317785 325788 328792 329797 327802 327810 328817 328821
      322827 317833 313833 308831 302828 298827 293828 291833
      292840 293848 293856 294867 305895 306908 307919 308935
      306948 305971 308982 310984 313983 314988 315995 315006
      314012 311018 310024 310030 320031 323030 325027 327015
      327009 327005 335986 338975 341961 343951 346942 351923
      353912 357903 362893 365887 369885 376881 386880 394878
      402879 407879 412877 417870 423859 427849 430840 434831
      437822 438813 440801 441793
 0.25 376055 377052 376048 374045 369038 365035 360034 355036
      353039 344041 342045 340050 340053 343056 350060 355062
      357064 360069 362069 370066 372057 376055
 0.25 340096 340094 340093 339091 338091 337090 336091 335093
      335095 336096 338097 340096 340096
 0.25 299088 299084 297081 290078 283074 278071 271067 268066
      264065 262069 263074 266080 272083 279087 286090 295091
      299088
 0.25 277807 275805 272804 270802 268802 265801 261802 259803
      258807 260809 264810 266810 269811 273810 275809 277807
 0.50 436799 436792 435784 433773 429757 426752 422749 417745
      409742 396737 387735 382735 380737 376742 374747 371752
      369754 366753 363751 362745 362735 361724 358721 354720
      351723 348728 347732 346737 348745 348754 348759 343761
      339765 339770 341777 340782 342788 344792 347798 346809
      343818 344823 350823 349827 346831 342834 339830 335829
      330830 326833 323839 315854 313862 314868 312881 314891
      318896 321895 323891 328885 333877 337874 341875 342878
      343882 341888 338899 335903 332905 328911 321928 318930
      316934 313943 310956 308968 309972 312973 317968 319971
      320977 319986 319991 321996 325994 327990 332979 336969
      344930 349910 352899 354892 357888 362881 367876 374872
      381870 401871 407872 410870 415865 418861 425845 431828
      434821 435812 436799
 0.50 369052 368048 364045 362045 356046 351044 347046 347050
      352052 356055 359056 363056 367054 369052
 0.50 307854 307850 307848 305845 303844 299844 298847 298849
      297853 297857 299861 301863 304861 306859 307856 307854
 0.50 297838 298836 297834 297832 297831 296832 295834 295836
      295838 297838 297838
 0.50 285082 284080 281078 279078 276076 274075 271073 267074
      268077 270079 274081 275082 279084 283084 285082
 1.00 431809 432803 431797 431789 429783 424765 423760 421756
      414753 408751 400751 392751 388753 384756 380762 376767
      371768 368768 359767 356769 355773 355781 356793 357799
      359804 366806 371809 375817 377821 377825 374831 369828
      365829 363832 362838 363842 363852 363861 365863 368861
      374855 390854 393861 395865 399867 407868 411861 420846
      426832 430819 431809
 1.00 354744 353742 353740 353739 353740 352742 353744 354744
 1.00 339926 336926 334930 332939 329944 328947 326958 325970
      323976 324980 329973 331962 334954 337943 338932 339926
 1.00 321949 322947 322945 322943 322941 321940 321941 320943
      320945 319947 318949 318952 319954 320954 320952 321950
      321949
 1.50 428812 429803 427791 423778 422770 421766 419762 415760
      411757 405757 399759 392761 389764 385770 385778 378778
      373777 366777 362780 362784 365789 369792 375794 382795
      386796 387804 390812 391817 391824 391833 390842 393842
      395846 395851 397860 401864 405864 406863 409859 415847
      420837 423832 425824 428812
 2.00 426808 426801 424795 421787 415767 413765 407765 399767
      395777 392787 393791 395796 399802 403813 409819 408822
      406823 402827 400834 401847 400857 403860 406857 410849
      415840 419834 422823 425815 426808

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 546882 546874 545863 544850 545842 544836 543831 541823
      538816 533810 530806 526799 523797 520803 515820 513828
      512832 512838 511842 509843 505849 499860 483887 476895
      470896 466891 459878 452874 445874 433873 419874 413879
      408883 403888 399894 394904 389917 387927 386936 385940
      386943 387947 389950 394953 400954 406952 409949 415954
      419959 426961 430966 434969 440971 446970 450974 455979
      461983 467985 475985 486980 491977 495974 499968 501965
      502960 504952 509946 513943 519945 520947 523944 525940
      528933 533926 537921 540912 545899 546882
 0.01 533179 533174 533170 530162 527156 522151 510144 505142
      498141 495143 494146 494156 498161 502168 505184 508190
      513195 516201 517205 520207 523208 525206 526196 532179
      533179
 0.01 497701 496691 494684 492676 488668 480655 472647 461638
      455638 448639 433639 429638 425639 417640 410642 406645
      395654 385663 374671 355694 347705 337718 329725 325730
      319735 301753 295758 289763 279771 271781 266787 265790
      264794 257803 251814 256830 260842 264849 267857 268866
      268874 269884 270891 271900 273910 275917 275924 277931
      277941 279949 279957 270963 263966 257969 243971 235974
      233977 234979 237988 238992 240994 250000 260007 272015
      281020 292021 295020 298018 306007 310000 311992 314973
      321943 322935 323929 321920 323913 326897 327885 327875
      330868 332861 333851 338843 349822 357811 365802 368794
      372789 374786 378785 381783 384785 384789 380791 376798
      373801 372805 373815 377821 382822 393817 399819 401822
      401825 400834 400843 402850 405854 408856 411857 415856
      422855 433845 438839 442832 448821 454807 463795 466792
      468784 471778 476771 483756 488750 490742 493733 495723
      496712 497701
 0.01 459163 460158 458155 454147 452139 448133 447130 444127
      441128 438131 436141 434150 437156 442161 444164 448165
      451164 454164 459163
 0.01 456177 453171 451171 449175 447179 443180 441182 436181
      429182 425182 423184 423188 424192 429195 438195 445196
      449195 452193 454184 456177
 0.01 454115 455103 454096 452092 450090 448092 445089 442087
      438088 434089 429087 425086 422088 423093 426097 432103
      437110 443116 446119 450117 454115
 0.01 400206 400200 398196 392193 388192 385188 381187 377182
      369179 367178 363180 359181 357183 360186 365189 373193
      378199 383201 387204 397207 400206
 0.01 399053 366030 362032 359036 349038 340045 335049 333046
      331042 330038 324037 320039 318044 318048 320050 324054
      321060 320062 317065 313062 308064 304067 300069 288063
      279057 274054 269054 262061 257058 251060 247064 249069
      260086 275102 282110 286114 291116 296118 303119 316118
      330127 346112 348106 352107 355108 357108 361103 359094
      363096 369094 373096 374100 375101 379097 380093 379089
      381087 386082 389068 399053
 0.01 369084 368082 368081 367079 367078 366079 365081 365082
      363083 363085 364087 366087 367086 368085 369084
 0.01 323163 324158 322158 319157 316155 314154 310153 308151
      305150 303150 304153 306155 308156 311158 313159 316160
      320161 322162 323163
 0.25 532872 532870 532867 531865 530865 529867 528870 528867
      527866 526868 527870 527871 526873 526876 527877 528876
      529875 530875 532873 532872
 0.25 501893 500890 496890 494891 492893 490896 488898 487900
      487903 489904 492905 494904 496901 498898 500896 501893
 0.25 497929 495922 492918 482908 477906 471909 469911 465910
      461905 456901 451900 442900 434901 422900 415902 409905
      406910 401915 395929 394936 397938 400937 407935 414931
      417931 421932 422936 424938 428939 435938 436945 439951
      445952 451949 457947 460955 462957 466958 474958 479956
      484953 489948 492942 496936 497929
 0.25 472703 471698 469697 466700 463693 459679 456672 454668
      451662 447656 444653 439651 432652 427651 420651 414653
      404658 395665 385672 379679 370690 364699 357709 348718
      343724 337734 325751 319761 316767 315773 308799 304802
      302806 296815 289822 286834 282845 280850 279859 280868
      281875 283891 284905 285918 287933 288944 289954 291962
      293976 297987 300988 302987 304979 306968 309956 312942
      313929 314866 316855 317842 318835 317826 312819 325800
      333799 338797 349790 354790 358789 361785 366782 373774
      376770 381767 384766 387766 387774 391776 395778 401781
      402785 399788 397789 393790 388794 437820 443812 449802
      460782 465771 468757 472741 472723 473713 472703
 0.25 375066 374064 370061 367060 363060 360061 359058 360055
      358052 354052 351050 347050 349052 352057 354066 360071
      365071 373069 375066
 0.25 344078 342075 338073 333073 329075 327077 324081 325085
      328088 331091 335094 338097 342094 341087 343081 344078
 0.25 344052 345050 343049 342050 342052 343052 344052
 0.25 302097 302092 300086 294079 285073 281071 275069 264068
      258066 255067 254069 261076 266083 273089 281096 290101
      296101 301099 302097
 0.50 483934 482932 481931 479931 477932 476932 475932 474934
      474935 473937 474939 474940 476940 477940 479939 481938
      482937 482936 483934
 0.50 464735 465726 462717 457702 453685 445671 442665 438660
      428656 421656 416657 410662 404667 397676 395682 395690
      396696 394699 391701 384700 378696 343730 337739 330749
      325762 322769 323775 327779 332782 337782 341779 356755
      363746 370736 374731 380731 385735 387739 387744 389750
      392757 398770 402773 409775 416776 420782 419790 417797
      415805 416811 417815 420818 423819 426819 432816 437811
      443800 449789 455775 458768 460761 462748 464735
 0.50 453913 453911 450910 443910 440910 438909 435907 431909
      428914 428919 429923 433926 438925 443922 448920 452915
      453913
 0.50 421914 420909 415909 412910 408913 405916 402919 402923
      403926 405926 409924 412925 415923 419919 421915 421914
 0.50 360067 359066 358067 360067 360067
 0.50 309850 309843 307837 306829 304823 300823 296826 291837
      288864 289874 290882 289891 289903 289911 290920 291933
      293947 295960 299964 303960 307950 309944 310935 310920
      310905 310898 309892 307875 309863 309850
 0.50 294090 292083 288080 283077 278075 271073 266072 265076
      270080 274083 279087 283091 289093 292092 294090
 1.00 443691 442682 440676 437671 434669 431668 419673 416679
      416683 416688 417695 416701 416711 413718 409727 410735
      413741 416746 420749 423757 424765 427780 427787 427792
      426796 426800 427803 431801 434796 437789 447766 449759
      450752 448744 444737 440723 439716 440709 443691
 1.00 362727 360726 359727 358727 357729 355730 353730 353731
      354731 355730 357730 359730 360729 361729 362727
 1.00 352733 352732 350733 350734 352733 352733
 1.00 347756 345753 342754 340755 338758 337760 336765 335767
      335771 334774 335776 337775 339773 341770 342768 343766
      345762 346759 347756
 1.00 305922 306916 305909 301908 299912 298918 299924 298931
      297935 297941 299945 300947 303945 305941 304935 303928
      305922 305922
 1.00 296868 295866 295865 293866 293868 294870 295869 296868

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 384648 387652 388658 391673 392680 391684 389692 387698
      387701 388705 388715 387722 384726 379734 373740 365745
      354756 351760 350765 347774 343786 337795 333801 330805
      326808 318812 314818 311826 308837 308844 308852 310865
      319905 320919 322930 322938 323943 318954 315962 313966
      312974 312981 310984 308992 304002 299006 297004 288989
      286987 284988 282987 278984 273982 270977 270971 271967
      277960 280955 283951 285948 286941 286933 285929 281919
      280914 280907 278902 278897 277887 274873 270863 266841
      262832 261820 261811 259803 260797 263792 266781 268771
      273764 283750 293739 308728 316722 324714 330708 336701
      345697 349691 373658 382648
 0.01 546174 547169 545166 542158 540142 539129 537119 535109
      532103 529098 521096 516096 511099 504103 502105 498105
      485108 478107 475108 470107 463106 459103 456101 453099
      448094 443087 439085 435084 429085 427087 424091 423100
      424106 419111 414113 415118 417120 420125 419128 417130
      415135 416137 421138 424138 425135 427129 431120 433116
      436114 443112 445114 446118 446124 443127 438130 436133
      435138 435145 436151 435157 437160 441162 449163 454159
      458155 460153 462147 466143 471142 476144 483148 486152
      487157 487163 487169 486175 485179 483190 483194 484198
      482202 480202 473205 469210 470213 474215 480214 486213
      488213 490216 497226 508239 517251 520255 525252 528245
      529236 536213 541195 544185 546174
 0.01 545001 545989 544980 541960 536944 533939 531935 531930
      528906 530895 531891 533887 537880 538870 538862 536858
      536845 535822 533795 531788 530777 527771 525767 523767
      510760 503761 496765 490772 487778 484783 481792 477807
      476816 476823 474827 472829 469828 463826 453823 446821
      444821 444818 446817 450809 452805 455803 458798 463792
      476782 480777 483771 487765 492757 494751 496743 501733
      507725 512718 516712 519705 520696 519682 513662 507646
      500629 498622 494616 489615 483617 477623 473626 470625
      466624 462625 458627 455630 452637 449645 448652 446661
      444675 443685 443689 443696 444701 443704 441708 439710
      428716 422721 421726 422732 426737 429740 429745 426750
      424753 421756 414760 408766 404771 400774 396780 391787
      387792 385799 379808 366837 360852 357861 355868 352875
      350877 350881 352891 352901 351908 351914 355921 359923
      358929 357933 352940 349947 348952 348956 348962 351968
      357974 360974 362973 369971 373966 375963 376960 379950
      381944 387944 394942 399939 405933 407931 409929 412929
      415933 418935 424938 432938 435938 437940 438944 442950
      443957 450970 455974 459974 462976 486982 492985 497990
      502995 505998 508999 521010 534016 540011 543004 545001
 0.01 225052 228061 234069 238075 245079 254086 263091 270098
      275105 288118 295122 303125 310126 314125 319126 325128
      329131 332133 332137 327150 325153 319152 308148 304149
      301151 300155 302158 320170 325172 330172 337172 341175
      343180 345180 345175 343168 338162 335155 364130 368126
      368124 365119 360116 356114 354111 352107 351103 370100
      374103 379103 385097 391089 396084 401077 411073 415069
      416065 413061 409058 406055 401053 397050 391049 387049
      384048 385045 387043 385040 381036 376034 377030 375028
      372027 365026 361023 356018 347019 344014 344011 342008
      338006 335006 331010 334023 334031 334036 333041 334047
      334050 329053 326055 325059 329061 336061 341061 340065
      335071 332075 327078 323074 318073 314073 312079 309084
      303082 294079 291077 288072 284065 279059 276057 271055
      262051 242041 237035 233032 228029
 0.01 411108 409098 406100 404104 399102 397102 396106 398110
      396112 392112 385115 377119 376130 382126 388123 392116
      394115 396113 399113 403111 408112 411108
 0.01 398206 393197 390193 385190 379182 375179 370179 366177
      362174 362178 359181 355182 351186 355187 360187 366189
      370192 377199 381202 387205 395207 398206
 0.01 349196 349194 349192 349190 349189 347189 346191 346194
      347196 348197 349196
 0.25 525828 525820 524815 521810 517806 502800 497801 494804
      491808 488813 488819 488826 489831 489838 488851 490855
      494860 497862 496865 491874 486881 487888 490892 494894
      498895 502893 506888 512882 515879 516871 518861 521845
      523836 525828
 0.25 497668 496663 494660 488653 474650 469651 465653 461661
      460671 462686 463692 463697 463702 461708 453723 456727
      458728 461729 467728 474729 477731 481731 485725 487716
      489706 491695 491690 492687 496677 497668
 0.25 475890 473884 469880 464877 461872 457872 455874 451879
      448884 449889 451891 455895 460898 464898 470896 474892
      475890
 0.25 450731 451726 449721 447720 443721 441723 439725 437728
      438731 439732 442733 445735 447735 449734 450731
 0.25 431857 430851 428846 422839 419835 415833 406829 403829
      399831 395835 393839 389848 386859 385865 383869 380879
      376889 374894 373896 374900 376903 382904 385907 389909
      397906 402905 406906 412906 416905 424900 427896 429892
      426881 429870 431858 431857
 0.25 396922 397917 396915 391912 384912 378913 373913 369916
      371923 373928 377932 382936 386935 391931 394927 396922
 0.25 376705 375697 373690 366689 362691 351700 347703 343707
      336716 328725 321735 315745 303765 298776 296782 295790
      293795 294803 293810 289815 285820 279823 277827 277833
      279848 280856 282863 285879 287885 289891 291904 293911
      296917 299922 302924 304924 306919 307911 306905 304897
      302881 301872 301862 302848 303842 302834 301828 302820
      303816 304813 308810 311809 314807 318803 324794 332785
      339775 345765 350754 357743 365735 373724 375716 376705
 0.25 368185 366184 365184 366186 368186 368185
 0.25 360069 358068 357069 358071 360069 360069
 0.25 324161 324160 322159 320159 318159 318160 320161 322162
      324161 324161
 0.25 312156 312155 310154 308153 307153 307155 308156 309157
      311157 312156
 0.25 314109 315105 312103 310102 307100 305099 301099 299099
      296099 294102 297105 299106 301108 304110 306111 309112
      311111 314109
 0.25 283082 282078 278076 269073 264066 259061 249058 244057
      241058 242061 246064 251069 258073 265078 272083 277086
      282084 283082
 0.25 235051 236049 235047 234046 234045 233043 232043 231041
      230041 229041 228043 227045 228047 228048 229049 230051
      232052 234052 235051
 0.50 519832 519825 518821 515819 511817 507818 504821 500827
      499837 500847 503856 507863 512857 515851 517842 519832
 0.50 485684 483678 479675 473673 471676 470678 472686 473695
      474703 474707 476709 478710 480708 482701 483695 485687
      485684
 0.50 461886 461883 460881 459879 458881 458882 457884 457886
      458888 460887 461886
 0.50 425857 422851 419846 414842 409840 404840 400844 395856
      395865 394872 391878 391886 390892 394895 399897 404901
      411899 417896 418891 419881 420874 423867 425857
 0.50 369714 368708 362707 357706 352709 336725 330733 324743
      314762 310772 306782 302793 301796 303799 309801 314798
      318795 325787 332778 338769 344760 349749 354740 358737
      361733 367723 369714
 0.50 299842 299836 297830 295825 290823 287823 285825 282829
      282834 282842 283856 286868 289879 292884 294887 298884
      299878 299863 299851 299842
 0.50 281082 281081 281080 279079 278078 277077 276077 274077
      272077 271077 272079 274081 275083 277083 279083 281083
      281082
 0.50 263072 263070 262068 261068 260066 258065 257064 255064
      253064 252065 253067 254069 256070 258071 259071 260072
      261073 263072
 1.00 343746 342740 337740 332742 329746 324755 319764 315773
      314785 316787 318785 321781 328773 334765 339757 343747
      343746
 1.00 294847 294843 294839 294834 293832 291830 287831 286833
      285835 286839 287843 287845 288850 289854 291856 293853
      294849 294847
 1.50 335752 334751 332751 331752 331753 329755 328757 326760
      325762 325763 324764 325766 327765 328764 329764 330762
      331761 332760 332759 333757 334756 334754 335753 335752

$$




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