Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 240650
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 24/1200 UTC THRU MAY 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

OH VALLEY---TN VALLEY---SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT HAVE EJECTED
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MEAN TROF POSITION OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC EARLY DAY 1---ADDITIONAL
HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROF THROUGH THE OH---TN---LOWER MS VALLEYS---SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST.  THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
BACKING IN RESPONSE TO THIS AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF FROM THE UPPER
TN VALLEY---SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS---MID ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE OH VALLEY.  THIS WILL SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THESE
AREAS WITH A BROAD REGION OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS
LIKELY.   MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TO MID OH VALLEY WHERE THE ASSOCIATED
COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND MAY PIVOT LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.  ANOTHER MAX AREA POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHERE THE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE UVVS IN THE EASTERN
UPSLOPE SIDE FROM WESTERN NC INTO SOUTHWEST TO WESTERN VA AND
EASTERN WV.  RUNOFF ISSUES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS BOTH MAX
REGIONS---ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHERE
FFG VALUES ARE LOWER.

NORTHERN TO CENTRAL FL INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST/COASTAL CAROLINA

THE AXIS OF THE MOST ANOMALOUS PWS THIS PERIOD...1.5-2+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AMPLIFYING CLOSED LOW---ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE WEAKENING LEAD FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.  STRONG UPPER
DIFFLUENCE MOVING OVER THIS ANOMALOUS PW AXIS DAY 1 WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA---NORTHEASTWARD ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS.  THERE IS A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS THESE AREAS---BUT STILL A LOT OF SHORTER TERM DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PRECIP.  TO MITIGATE THESE
DIFFERENCES--WPC LEANED MORE TOWARD THE IN HOUSE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
HI RES MEANS---DEPICTING A BROAD REGION OF 1-1.5"+ AREAL AVERAGE
AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS.   WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
TRAINING OF CELLS IN THE MOIST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW---LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF
ISSUES---ESPECIALLY OVER URBANIZED AREAS---ARE POSSIBLE.  MANY OF
THE HI RES RUNS SHOW MAX TOTALS OVER 5"---ALTHOUGH IN VARYING
LOCATIONS---RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE OF WHERE THEY MAY OCCUR.

NORTHERN PLAINS---GREAT BASIN---CENTRAL ROCKIES

A STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
B.C. AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY 1---ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WEDNESDAY
AND  INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY EARLY THURSDAY.  THE TRACK OF
THIS CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP NORTH
OF THE BORDER.  LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE TOTALS MAY FALL TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS MAX PRECIP AXIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONE AREA WILL BE FROM EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN TO CENTRAL
ND LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EASTWARD
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DAY 1.  LIGHT
TO LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIP ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NW OVER NW
MT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THESE AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTH---SCATTERED PRECIP ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THROUGH PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE TOTALS EXPECTED HERE ALSO.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 424636 430646 431660 431674 429688 427701 424707 423711
      425714 427726 429743 430751 432756 436767 452780 457783
      461788 468796 474803 476806 478815 479820 480826 476835
      463852 463867 461874 458878 452885 444890 429901 427902
      425900 421898 417896 414894 412896 408908 403917 397925
      392928 387929 381929 377928 368925 363922 358920 352919
      348917 340908 333904 331892 326881 324876 320873 315871
      312873 306876 302880 295887 288896 283904 277911 272921
      269923 265921 262919 260915 256888 255884 253881 248880
      240875 234868 231865 229858 228847 228842 229838 236815
      240804 242799 245795 251788 257781 269768 279763 283760
      287755 295748 302740 305735 309733 317729 354706 361699
      368690 373681 377671 380661 382649
 0.01 561065 563047 563029 563023 563020 561013 559007 556001
      553998 548994 541989 535988 531986 520985 475982 470982
      464983 462984 460986 457991 456998 457004 459008 463011
      463015 461015 458019 454022 452025 450033 452038 455042
      457048 459054 462057 465060 470061 476061 481058 490053
      497049 505046 514051 516054 516058 511057 501052 498056
      497062 498069 498076 492086 490088 487087 482085 473083
      468095 467097 466102 466110 468114 473116 477116 477119
      475121 472127 470130 470135 471141 476143 491186 492190
      491194 491199 489202 486206 482208 477209 473211 468214
      463213 459217 458219 456224 457230 451233 449239 450242
      452243 472247 478246 481242 479235 476232 471234 469233
      469230 471223 472220 475220 485221 489224 493225 496220
      500218 503223 504228 507242 507245 509248 513251 517250
      520246 526239 530235 532228 537215 544187 550153 551142
      553135 553124 555115 560084 561065
 0.01 426120 426115 424114 421111 421108 421103 422100 425093
      426087 427076 428065 427058 425053 419053 413052 409052
      407053 400062 392071 388084 390091 393096 395103 396106
      394109 389113 385117 381121 378127 377132 376134 378139
      380144 381149 380154 380158 384159 388157 391156 395157
      399162 401165 404165 407165 407162 406158 407154 408151
      409146 412138 415134 418130 421126 426120
 0.25 554094 555082 554070 553058 551050 548042 545039 542038
      539040 538043 535051 532060 530071 522083 518088 511092
      505095 500100 497106 491111 489121 487131 489134 492135
      496137 499139 501150 504157 514168 516177 513181 516189
      521195 527201 531205 533205 535201 538188 539175 541165
      549120 554094
 0.25 537024 538020 537016 534012 530010 524009 519008 513008
      503010 495013 491017 488021 487024 487028 492030 504030
      510030 514029 519028 525028 529029 533031 537024
 0.25 520218 521215 521213 519214 518215 517217 516219 516221
      518221 519220 520219 520218
 0.25 445805 443795 439789 429779 423773 418766 414759 410751
      404737 395722 389718 382714 379712 375711 368714 355721
      341731 335736 329741 318749 306757 292767 278776 268783
      258793 250806 243821 238834 235840 233847 234857 240863
      244865 247865 252865 257866 261871 263878 267884 270887
      274886 281882 286877 306855 312852 319849 327848 332848
      334851 336862 339871 343876 350878 363883 371882 374882
      377885 381887 386887 391886 394885 405876 418870 421867
      423864 427857 433850 437842 440825 444816 445805
 0.25 418666 419662 418657 414652 410650 406649 403650 399655
      396661 390672 388677 388683 397689 399696 402703 406707
      410705 413692 416679 418666
 0.50 551088 551082 548077 544075 541076 533082 527088 520094
      516105 514111 512115 505119 502122 501125 501130 505139
      507143 508151 510156 513160 518168 522179 525182 529184
      532181 534174 536160 539143 545117 548104 551091 551088
 0.50 438803 439798 437793 434787 429782 424777 418773 413767
      409760 405755 399742 395735 392732 389732 380734 371734
      365732 358733 343737 329745 307763 286779 274788 268792
      264797 256807 249819 243833 240839 238846 238850 239854
      243857 247859 252859 261859 268872 273876 279875 285871
      289866 298855 308845 315845 321844 331835 337831 341832
      343834 348871 353873 359875 367877 374878 384879 389879
      393877 397873 403869 408866 413861 422849 427843 429834
      433819 438803
 0.50 412668 410662 408658 406655 402657 399661 397665 395670
      395675 397679 401682 405683 408680 410676 411671 412668
 0.50 414807 413802 411801 409801 406801 402801 399802 397804
      396806 393808 395810 398811 400811 403812 406813 409813
      412812 413809 414807
 1.00 541105 541097 537097 533099 530103 527107 524113 521128
      519134 519139 520143 522148 522156 524161 527158 526147
      528140 531135 534130 536123 537117 539110 541105
 1.00 405850 404842 400839 395838 391835 388836 384839 375844
      370846 366849 365855 366860 373869 382872 387873 391871
      398863 401859 403855 405850
 1.00 385795 384793 382792 380792 378791 377792 375794 375796
      375797 377798 379797 381797 383797 384796 385795
 1.00 359758 359752 357749 353746 350747 340750 335754 320763
      307774 296786 280794 275798 269804 259815 254822 249829
      247838 246842 246847 251851 256851 260849 265849 268852
      272859 274863 277864 285860 292855 297849 307836 310828
      309822 307818 309809 314802 317800 322798 330795 334793
      337791 342784 353771 357765 359758
 1.00 356835 356832 356830 355829 353829 351831 349833 349835
      348837 348838 350840 352839 353839 354839 355837 356835
 1.00 281834 281831 281829 280827 278829 278830 277832 278834
      279835 280835 281834
 1.50 396855 395850 393847 388845 385848 381850 378855 378857
      380861 384865 387867 391864 393860 396857 396855
 1.50 352764 353760 351756 349754 345754 337758 332761 322767
      317771 313776 311781 307786 305793 302798 294807 291812
      289818 287832 284838 281843 279848 280856 283857 286856
      291853 298843 301837 303831 304825 305817 307803 308796
      312791 318789 324789 329790 335787 342777 352764
 1.50 286808 286802 281801 276803 273805 267810 261817 256824
      254828 254832 253838 257840 264836 271831 277826 282819
      284815 285810 286808
 2.00 346763 345761 341761 336763 331766 325769 322773 320776
      321780 325782 332782 336778 339773 343768 346763
 2.00 302810 304808 303806 302806 300808 299810 298811 297813
      297815 297816 299817 301816 301815 301812 302811 302810
 2.00 300829 298827 295830 292832 290836 288839 286843 286850
      290849 292845 294843 296838 299834 300830 300829
 2.00 281813 280806 276806 273808 269811 266815 263819 259823
      258826 257830 258832 262832 267829 271826 276822 279818
      281813

$$




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