Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 090558
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1257 AM EST FRI DEC 09 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 09/1200 UTC THRU DEC 10/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...GREAT LAKES...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF
THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF LIFTING
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
SOME LOCALLY STRONGER SQUALLS WILL REMAIN DOWNWIND OF OFF OF ALL
THE LAKES...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION.

...FAR SOUTH TX...

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF FAR
SOUTH TX AS PROXIMITY OF SOME WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVERRUNS THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. MOST OF THE RAIN
THOUGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND CLOSER TO A WEAK INVERTED TROF.

...CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA...

AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WITH EMBEDDED WEAK VORT IMPULSES AND
SOME ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A THREAT
OF SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN FL. THIS WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SLIP
SOUTH OF THE FL PENINSULA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
WILL TEND TO BUILD FURTHER ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SAT...AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE THREAT OF
RAIN WITH TIME. SOME SPOTTY 0.25+ INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE...BUT OTHERWISE THE EXPECTED RAIN WILL BE QUITE LIGHT WHICH
REFLECTS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

...CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...

A WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...INCLUDING
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
AS DEEP LAYER ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW CONTINUES TO FOCUS MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW PRESSURE
WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND IN PARTICULAR WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
RANGES OF WA/OR AND THE CASCADES WET WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL WATER EQUIVALENTS OF 1
TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. DOWNSTREAM FROM
HERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...THE INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE/SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
MILDER PACIFIC AIR WILL BE BUMPING UP AGAIN AND OVERRUNNING A
MODIFYING ARCTIC AIRMASS. THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT COUPLED
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL
INCLUDE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPILLING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS EARLY SAT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT OVERRUNS THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC
AIR HERE.

MEANWHILE...BY FRI NIGHT...AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET MAX WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING NORTHERN CA.
THIS WILL SEND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHERN
CA COASTAL RANGES EARLY SAT WHILE TRAVERSING A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
FRONT ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE WILL FOCUS MODERATE
TO HEAVY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL
FOR CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NORTHERN CA. THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE NORTHWEST CA COASTAL RANGES AND
NORTHERN SIERRA-NEVADA WHERE WATER EQUIVALENTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLY NEAR 3 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED. WPC QPF LEANED TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
ACROSS THE WEST...BUT TENDED TO BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE WETTER
GFS IN NORTHERN CA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW AND RESULTING MOISTURE FLUX.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

ORRISON

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 385300 394296 401289 407281 412272 415267 419263 428258
      431257 437258 446259 451259 457261 464269 470277 475286
      479293 486301 490305 495305 500304 503301 507297 509290
      512287 515280 517275 519267 517255 513230 511218 510210
      511202 516179 513157 508148 504145 501144 499141 501137
      500130 500121 499115 493103 489091 488086 485085 481082
      476080 473069 471064 469060 461055 457057 452059 450063
      451067 450070 445069 443070 442072 448080 450083 448088
      442087 437085 431084 427085 423087 424093 424098 422101
      417103 412104 410098 408096 404100 402104 398106 395109
      392113 392119 396122 398125 404127 407129 410134 411141
      405150 402154 402158 403160 405164 405167 404170 402173
      401179 403184 400189 397192 393190 387188 380186 370184
      357183 353185 353186 357187 360190 365193 368196 367201
      365205 361203 355202 350199 346191 342194 342200 343206
      344212 346218 350222 353224 356229 363235 367237 370241
      372247 372253 372265 373278 374289 375294 379298
 0.01 486871 473845 468841 464841 462837 460832 459829 455825
      451816 452805 450798 446793 443793 442797 440799 438795
      436786 436780 434778 436774 436767 438759 445749 446745
      445741 442740 439741 435745 431747 428745 425743 421744
      418745 415748 413750 414753 418759 420761 421765 421770
      418773 412770 410770 408773 406782 400786 389794 385798
      381802 382805 384806 390802 397800 405800 411812 413831
      417833 420831 424827 426822 431823 435829 445834 448837
      447840 445839 443836 440837 437844 432847 429849 425848
      423846 420843 416837 410838 407840 410846 417863 421868
      429869 444869 451867 455867 457869 462875 463878 461883
      458883 458888 460899 462905 466910 468912 472910 475904
      477902 479898 480892 481889 485880 486871
 0.01 464705 462701 458701 453703 450706 442709 438712 438717
      434720 437723 437725 435726 430727 429729 432731 443729
      450731 454723 457720 461718 463708 464705
 0.01 450034 451024 447017 445011 443008 443002 441995 438990
      435983 429980 425980 423981 419982 419985 417993 417996
      418001 421007 422011 425011 427014 428018 433022 436029
      438031 440036 434039 438045 439045 440042 443039 447039
      450034
 0.01 433795 433792 433790 433787 431786 429787 429788 429791
      429793 430795 432796 433795
 0.01 427063 427058 425056 425051 424048 424046 422046 420048
      420053 421055 421060 421065 421067 422067 424065 427063
 0.01 420076 418074 417067 416062 413059 409058 406055 400054
      397057 391062 386061 384063 386068 386074 388078 390082
      395083 398080 402081 404080 408078 413080 419078 420076
 0.01 290795 289786 285783 280786 277787 274786 267784 263782
      256780 248780 239786 235791 232796 229803 228809 227816
      225823 226833 225839 225844 226848 228848 233849 235846
      239842 240835 241832 244831 247825 248818 248814 250812
      252809 256808 261804 265804 265808 263823 262831 262837
      269839 271834 275828 278823 281818 283810 287802 290795
 0.01 231983 231987 233989 237989 239987 239983 241976 244973
      252974 255973 262974 268975 274974 274962 276958 274953
      270947 269945 268941 265939 259937 254935 246935 239943
      231950
 0.25 508285 509281 509276 507270 506261 506255 508240 505229
      502217 497206 494203 488202 479203 474203 470206 466207
      459207 455208 451208 447207 447201 451199 455196 460188
      463183 466179 466176 469173 473171 482166 484160 481155
      474149 468142 461136 455130 446133 438133 436131 436127
      437124 440123 444122 449119 452116 454110 455101 453097
      447095 435094 430092 427091 428097 428101 426103 422106
      419112 414112 409108 407108 404113 404115 406119 414125
      416129 417134 416142 415146 413149 411153 410159 412173
      413179 416184 420187 424184 426180 430178 433176 437177
      438192 441197 443201 444211 435213 427206 426201 424197
      414196 408202 404203 400201 388196 383193 379192 376192
      374195 374199 375202 377206 381211 383216 379219 374216
      370215 365216 363217 368226 380243 380257 383269 384274
      386277 390278 394277 399270 405262 409257 412255 417253
      422252 432250 443250 452250 462252 468253 473257 480267
      491283 495287 501289 505288 508285
 0.25 466866 467863 466861 465860 464861 463864 463866 464867
      466867 466866
 0.25 453855 453854 453852 451851 449851 448852 447853 447855
      447858 448859 450858 451857 453855 453855
 0.25 445822 444817 443815 441813 438811 436810 433809 430812
      431816 433819 435820 437821 440822 443823 445822
 0.25 422801 423799 423796 421794 419794 418796 418797 418799
      418802 418803 420804 422802 422801
 0.25 412071 412069 411068 410066 409066 408065 407065 406065
      405066 404067 405069 405070 406071 407072 408073 409073
      410072 412071 412071
 0.25 265798 261796 255796 249790 243791 240793 233801 232805
      231812 230822 231827 236826 238814 243806 247803 254803
      258801 264798 265798
 0.25 259968 257965 254964 250964 248964 244963 241962 238963
      235964 234967 235970 239971 243971 246970 250971 254970
      256970 259968
 0.50 504281 505276 504271 503265 499256 497249 496242 500241
      502236 498222 494213 485207 481206 476206 468211 463211
      459212 450214 440215 435216 431213 426213 422214 421217
      417216 415211 411212 407210 403206 398203 393200 389199
      382196 378198 378202 381207 397221 400224 396225 386221
      377225 379230 381234 385243 389254 391260 393262 396262
      399260 403257 410252 414250 419248 430246 433244 438243
      444244 455244 467245 475251 478254 482260 488269 491275
      495280 500282 504281
 0.50 495241 493235 490229 486224 479222 474222 469225 465228
      464229 468232 473229 475228 478229 482234 484237 486234
      491237 495241
 0.50 467155 467154 466152 465152 464151 462150 461151 460153
      462155 463156 464156 465157 466157 467156 467155
 0.50 457155 455152 452150 445147 439142 436140 434142 429149
      428152 429156 435162 440168 444173 447175 451176 453169
      456157 457155
 0.50 445186 445184 445183 443182 442183 441184 441185 441186
      442188 444187 445186
 0.50 448111 446104 443101 439099 435099 432097 431097 432102
      429104 425105 423107 423110 423116 420116 418118 422119
      427118 433117 438114 447114 448111
 0.50 432169 432165 429164 426162 423158 422154 419151 416153
      414160 417164 421164 424165 425170 428172 430171 432169
 0.50 425148 424147 423145 422147 422149 424149 425148
 0.50 245797 243795 240797 237800 234804 234808 233812 234816
      236814 237810 239806 241803 244799 245797
 0.50 245966 244965 243965 242966 242968 243968 244966 245966
 1.00 496260 495257 495255 495254 494252 493251 492249 492248
      491246 490245 490244 488242 487242 486243 485246 485248
      485251 486254 487254 488256 488257 489258 491259 492261
      494261 496260
 1.00 479244 480241 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232 475232
      474233 473234 472235 472236 472237 472239 473240 475242
      476242 476243 478244 479244
 1.00 476215 475213 473214 475215 476215
 1.00 464221 464219 461216 456217 450218 444218 439219 435223
      435226 439227 444227 449225 454223 460224 463223 464221
 1.00 454238 453237 451236 450236 448236 447238 447239 449240
      451240 452240 453239 454238
 1.00 443157 443156 442154 441152 441151 440149 439149 438148
      436150 436151 436153 437155 437156 439158 441158 442157
      443157
 1.00 427242 425237 422236 413231 412226 414220 413216 410216
      407215 404212 397206 394203 390202 386200 383202 386208
      392214 405224 405227 402229 394229 387226 384228 385233
      389239 395245 400248 404248 411245 426243 427242
 1.50 446223 447221 447220 445220 443220 442220 442222 443223
      444224 446224 446223
 1.50 421240 419238 418236 414236 412236 409236 405236 403238
      402240 404242 408242 410241 413241 415241 419241 421240
 1.50 411223 412221 412219 412218 411218 410219 408220 408222
      408225 409225 410225 411225 411223
 1.50 403216 403214 402212 401211 400211 399209 398208 397207
      395206 394205 392204 390206 390208 391211 393212 394214
      395214 396215 397217 399217 401218 403217 403216
 2.00 401216 401213 400213 398211 398210 397209 395208 395207
      394207 393207 392209 393210 394212 396214 397215 398215
      399216 401216

$$





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