Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 030606
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
105 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 03/1200 UTC THRU MAR 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


GT LAKES/NE SWWD ACRS THE OH/MID MS AND TN VALLEYS...

STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA PATRN SETTING UP IN ADVANCE OF POS
TILTED UPR TROF EJECTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST THROUGH THE
SRN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO POTNL HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN ACRS PARTS
OF THE OH/MID MS AND TN VALLEYS WITH WINTRY MIX LIKELY FARTHER
NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.  MODELS SHOW REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING INITIAL SFC LOW MOVING ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST EARLY TUES IN
RESPONSE TO WEAKENING S/WV EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF A MORE AMPLIFIED
UPR TROF DVLPG SWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS TUES/TUES NIGHT.  THIS LEAD
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH RAPIDLY NEWD WITH A BAND OF WAA PCPN
SPREADING RAPIDLY ACRS THE GT LAKES INTO THE NE AS ASSOCD WARM
FRONT LIFTS NWD THRU THE MID ATLC REGION TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND.
TRAILING PORTION OF ASSOCD COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THROUGH
SRN OH VALLEY AS MAIN HEIGHT FALLS LIFT INTO CANADA LEADING WHICH
WILL ALLOW DEEP LAYERED SLWLY FLOW WITH PWS OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES TO
FOCUS ALONG THE BNDRY TUES NIGHT.  THE HIGH PWS ALONG WITH 85H
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL PROVIDE STRONG MSTR FLUX
ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT...AND LIKELY LEADING TO SOME
HEAVY RAINS FROM PARTS OF AR NEWD INTO THE CNTL APLCNS.  WHILE
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LACKING..THE DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO POTENTIAL TRAINING/REPEAT CELL ACTIVITY.  HAVE SHIFTED
AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINS SLIGHTLY N OF NDFD AMOUNTS GIVEN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINS.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
PLUS INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED HERE.  ACRS NEW ENGLAND...THE NAM
SEEMED A TAD ON THE HIGH END OF AMOUNTS SO DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR
FROM CONTINUITY WHICH INDICATED .25 TO .50 INCH AREA AVG AMOUNTS.


GT BASIN EWD INTO THE CNTL/SRN ROCKIES...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MDT SNOWS EXPECTED ACRS THIS REGION IN
RESPONSE TO ENERGY DROPPING SEWD FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
AS WELL AS INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD FROM
THE NRN PLAINS.  THE NAM SHOWED A LITTLE MORE OF THE S/WV ENERGY
ACRS SRN CA GETTING PULLED NEWD AHEAD OF HEIGHT FALLS DROPPING SWD
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION..BUT IT SEEMED TO BE ON ITS OWN
THERE AND THUS PERHAPS A BIT OVERDONE WITH .10 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS
OVER WRN KS..BUT OTHERWISE...MODELS GENLY SUPPORT SOME MDT QPF
AMOUNTS ACRS THE MTNS OF CNTL/WRN CO WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER AMOUNTS
ACRS THE WASATCH.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 442630 451629 460629 468628 474628 477630 483633 489639
      495645 501650 505654 507658 513664 518670 522675 536716
      539750 537775 517806 521813 521818 520824 520834 519845
      518848 518855 518859 520862 522864 535875 538877 540881
      543892 547901 550911 552917 552922 550926 548932 543941
      541947 539949 537949 521950 510950 504955 493960 485963
      481967 476969 473972 469975 466979 461982 458985 455990
      451000 449004 448014 446019 447024 447031 450035 455053
      457062 458071 459082 459095 458101 457103 454110 446114
      438117 435120 434126 432129 431137 422156 419159 416159
      406157 404158 404162 405165 404170 402174 397180 395182
      392179 390177 390172 390168 390161 390153 394149 402144
      407143 410142 414140 414138 413135 410132 406133 375145
      356130 343118 337113 337110 337104 339100 344099 350106
      351110 355113 356115 361118 367117 371115 375113 378108
      379104 375103 368104 364103 362102 358094 363078 364075
      363071 360069 359065 363053 367051 369048 364041 361037
      359036 352031 346023 339019 335020 332023 325030 323034
      322039 321043 320049 317054 317060 319058 321054 325054
      334056 336058 335060 326064 320068 317073 317079 318088
      320091 321097 323107 322120 323124 322128 321129 312131
      309135 310140 314146 317153 321157 327162 331164 333166
      332169 327171 326173 329176 334183 336187 337193 334202
      330201 326199 318194 312187 303171 299161 291161 285164
      278167 275169 271168 266163 266157 268153 268149 270144
      273139 276138 282135 284134 284131 280128 277121 274112
      270113 263112 258110 255107 253105 250105 245107 242105
      240100 239098 241094 245089 240084 243078 249072 253067
      259064 264063 271063
 0.01 271063 280064 286062 288060 290058 289055 287049 286041
      286035 288029 292026 298023 303021 308020 311017 312014
      309011 300005 296002 293996 290990 284987 270982 260979
      254977 253975 255972 263963 268957 272952 278944 281939
      285935 292923 295916 299909 299905 300903 300901 303900
      313894 326868 330863 331861 332858 328846 326838 328833
      331824 336821 340808 345796 349784 351781 351775 349769
      347769 343767 343761 352751 359740 363733 365726 373704
      377696 378689 379680 382674 384667 386662 392652 398646
      405642
 0.01 424025 425016 423013 423008 422003 420994 417966 413951
      409942 407936 403929 394925 391925 389927 384931 379938
      376954 375963 374967 373976 372979 372983 374988 377992
      381997 385001 394007 400995 410991 414991 415994 415999
      415003 417005 417013 418018 418027 421027 424025
 0.25 483842 475781 467739 468733 467724 466719 463715 464709
      464705 467702 469697 468689 465681 461673 455664 450657
      443649 440647 434647 414659 406663 401669 396677 393687
      387708 385721 384733 385738 387743 390750 395758 397763
      398770 395780 390788 376803 366816 360821 356823 352823
      348826 346830 344834 343841 345846 349852 351856 352863
      346906 344917 341927 336939 334949 331959 332969 333975
      337976 343971 350964 355956 364936 368928 373921 382906
      401867 403863 407861 413866 423879 430885 433888 438888
      451887 455886 459882 468867 474862 477863 480859 482849
      483842
 0.25 454725 453723 451723 447722 444723 440726 439728 437730
      436732 438733 440735 442737 445736 448734 449731 451729
      454727 454725
 0.25 412071 409061 409056 406052 399048 394049 395053 394058
      391060 385065 380071 380077 381081 386084 389084 393083
      396080 403074 410072 412071
 0.25 399115 399113 398112 397113 396113 394112 392113 390114
      389116 388117 387118 388119 390119 390118 392118 394118
      395117 396117 397116 399115
 0.25 308089 306084 303080 298075 293073 280070 267068 262070
      258073 257084 256092 256098 261102 266103 279103 290100
      300097 306093 308089
 0.25 299152 299151 297150 297149 296148 295147 294146 294145
      293144 291143 289143 287143 287144 286145 285147 287149
      288150 290150 292150 294151 295151 297152 299152 299152
 0.50 429683 427680 424680 419682 409688 404691 401695 397704
      396707 397712 400714 401720 403725 404727 407725 412722
      415718 420709 423698 427688 429683
 0.50 427791 426783 424778 421774 417771 413771 410772 402778
      397786 390792 384797 379805 376815 371825 366843 356884
      350906 344923 341934 338946 339952 341954 345954 348951
      354943 359933 368920 372910 377901 384884 394866 398858
      400848 403838 408828 416814 420808 423801 427791
 0.50 303089 301083 298080 294077 289075 278071 269071 263072
      261076 261088 261095 264099 274100 285098 294095 299093
      302090 303089
 1.00 413791 412786 409784 405785 401788 391795 386801 385804
      385809 387813 387818 385825 380832 376839 371853 361883
      356901 353916 350924 349930 352930 359917 368905 374893
      382877 387865 393847 397832 403816 408803 413791
 1.00 296088 294083 288079 284076 278074 271074 268075 267078
      266087 269092 274094 282095 287093 291092 296088
 1.50 396800 396798 395797 393797 392798 391799 390800 390801
      390803 390804 392804 394804 395803 395801 396800
 1.50 387849 387845 387841 385839 382841 379844 376848 373859
      369869 365880 363886 362892 362896 364898 366900 371891
      376882 380871 384861 387849
 1.50 364903 364901 363901 363898 362897 361898 360900 360901
      360903 360904 361905 362906 363905 362904 361903 362902
      362903 364904 364903
 1.50 289087 289083 286081 285080 281079 279078 276076 272077
      271079 271083 271087 273088 277090 280090 284089 286089
      289087
 2.00 379868 379866 378864 377865 375866 374869 373870 373871
      372873 372875 373878 374879 374878 375876 375875 376873
      377872 377871 378869 379868

$$




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