Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 221908
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
308 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 23/0000 UTC THRU AUG 24/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

GOOD MASS FIELD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG PACIFIC NORTHWEST CLOSED LOW PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING SAT.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND VERY WELL DEFINED
UPPER DIFFLUENCE EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES---EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS
PORTION OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION AREA IN THE LATEST
GUIDANCE--LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST ACROSS MT AND
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN WY---ALBEIT LIGHTER PRECIP TOTALS EXPECTED
TO THE SOUTH OF MT.

NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS---EASTWARD INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY/MID WEST

THERE ARE BIGGER QPF DIFFERENCES FARTHER EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND MID
WEST.  ONE ASPECT IS HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND WHETHER IT DOES MOVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK AS PER THE ECMWF---SREF MEAN AND UKMET OR TAKES A MORE
EASTERLY TRACK AS PER THE HI RES ARW---NMM--NAM CONEST AND GFS.
THIS MORE EASTERLY TRACK IS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING WEST TO EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL IMPACT TONIGHT.    THERE IS A LOT OF
RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES HERE ALSO IN THE HI RES GUIDANCE---LEADING
TO OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE.  AT
THE MOMENT---WPC QPF LEANED TOWARD THE IDEA OF CONVECTION PUSHING
FARTHER TO THE EAST AS PER THE LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE AND GFS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN RE-DEVELOPING FARTHER TO THE WEST DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY CLOSER TO THE UPPER CENTER ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS IS FOR OUR OVERALL HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE HI RES GUIDANCE WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT--ALTHOUGH NOT VERY CONFIDENT OVERALL WITH THIS
EVOLUTION.  WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY AND MID WEST---ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT DOES PUSH
EASTWARD MAY MOVE OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY PRECIPITATION
EARLIER TODAY AND MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RUNOFF ISSUES.


OH VALLEY---CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...

THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE NATION WILL STRETCH EASTWARD FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY---THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DAY 1.
AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS PERIOD---SUPPORTING CONTINUED SHOWERY
PATTERN.  NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH QPF DETAILS IN THIS
PATTERN.  MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HEAVIEST TOTALS ARE FROM THE UPPER
OH VALLEY---INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC.  RELATIVELY LOW FFG VALUES OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
MAY RESULT IN RUNOFF ISSUES IF PRECIPITATION BECOMES ORGANIZED
HERE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 24/00Z
 0.01 519057 519044 517030 516022 514015 511011 509005 502985
      499975 497971 493967 488961 482955 464947 456944 450942
      442937 438928 431906 427894 424880 420853 415847 411840
      405833 405822 407813 410801 411796 413792 418789 424787
      431781 430774 431770 433768 435759 434755 433751 431751
      427747 425748 419750 414752 406751 398749 390748 384748
      379748 375746 370747 365746 360746 353743 346742 340743
      338744 336746 333754 332766 334771 334777 326794 310809
      304809 300808 295808 291807 283805 274803 258800 254803
      254806 259815 273827 286835 289839 290845 292850 293857
      293865 293873 290884 289887 289891 291897 291903 293908
      293914 297924 300925 303923 306921 308916 311905 313899
      313895 307848 307841 308837 315828 317824 323821 326818
      330818 332820 336821 338825 340828 342834 346843 349847
      350853 352875 354879 357883 365887 380896 383899 387902
      390904 392905 393908 394922 391933 388947 385960 384965
      383971 383977 382983 380994 379008 378020 377026 375030
      371034 366036 362038 357038 352039 348039 344041 343035
      343030 340030 332036 325040 317044 297052 288055 282055
      277054 272053 269052 264051 260049 254044 245041 241039
      234039 230041 229047 228051 227058 229063 231066 236071
      241076 254089 257093 261096 271096 275094 280095 289094
      297091 304087 307083 310079 314076 317074 337071 352064
      359061 366059 375056 384061 385065 384069 380072 376074
      373079 373084 374089 380095 382099 383103 381119 380123
      380129 381141 383150 386152 389154 394154 399151 402149
      405145 410138 413134 417132 426130 430129 433126
 0.01 433126 435128 436131 435137 437146 440155 444162 448170
      454174 461172 464169 466165 468161 471159 477157 491152
      498155 502155 506154 508151 510146 510140 510136 509124
      510110 509104 509098 512090 515078 517067 519057
 0.25 508063 508053 507044 504036 501031 493023 491016 490007
      489998 487991 478984 470976 460971 448967 443962 439957
      433944 430932 425919 422903 420887 418880 415875 412869
      408864 404858 399854 395850 393845 391838 391831 392817
      395802 395798 392796 386795 384788 382784 380782 374782
      370777 366770 363762 360758 357754 353750 347749 343752
      342756 345761 344768 343776 345786 348791 352795 355798
      358799 359804 361813 361821 362827 364835 366840 368847
      372853 375858 383867 394888 399902 401922 402929 404936
      407949 409958 409964 407970 403976 400982 399990 398998
      396004 392018 388025 386029 386033 387040 388043 391045
      398045 404042 409040 416040 421041 428044 437049 439055
      438062 436069 435074 436078 437086 435088 433087 427084
      424085 422087 421092 420094 415094 410091 407091 405095
      402101 399106 391112 388117 386121 387125 389130 393132
      395131 402128 409127 429119 433117 436117 441120 442127
      441133 441139 442143 443149 446155 451160 454161 458160
      463156 467150 470147 476144 481144 488145 494143 497140
      500133 501122 501106 502096 503085 506074 508063
 0.25 414769 413767 412766 410765 408765 407766 406767 406768
      405771 407773 409775 411774 412773 413772 414770 414769
 0.25 413080 414074 413071 407065 401065 395069 389072 386081
      386088 390094 397092 403088 409085 413080
 0.25 288081 288076 287074 282072 274071 269070 264069 259072
      258076 259080 263082 268085 275085 281085 286083 288081
 0.50 502070 503064 503056 502046 498038 494032 489025 486018
      486006 484997 438963 429948 423934 418915 415908 412901
      409899 407899 404902 403908 405929 407938 410948 415963
      418971 418978 417983 412983 409985 405989 401995 399002
      393023 391030 389035 389040 392041 396042 403039 407036
      413033 421032 429037 435040 441048 443056 441065 443073
      448080 451085 447092 443096 438098 435097 432097 430100
      425105 420107 419109 423111 429108 434108 438110 440112
      443116 446124 447134 447145 450152 452154 457156 462151
      465144 470138 474137 479138 488140 491140 493137 496130
      497120 497109 497097 500080 502070
 0.50 389808 387804 383803 381805 376809 372813 368818 368824
      372828 376832 382833 385829 387822 388815 389808
 1.00 490124 490111 490104 491097 494085 495071 494058 493046
      492041 489037 482032 470995 467994 463995 460996 457994
      447982 433972 430973 428978 427990 427994 430999 432002
      434006 436011 438015 443021 446032 450039 450044 448046
      447056 449066 450071 452075 456083 454093 453103 453116
      454122 453129 453135 455139 458141 461138 467134 471132
      475132 484134 487133 489130 490124
 1.00 416017 416010 414003 411998 408997 406998 403005 401012
      399018 397025 400030 405029 411027 414023 416017
 1.50 489091 491083 490077 489065 489057 488052 486047 484044
      480041 476041 469046 466048 461050 453051 451054 450057
      451060 455069 458079 459084 458091 457097 456101 459113
      460119 458126 459129 461131 464129 480130 483126 484120
      485108 489091
 1.50 446993 447990 446989 445988 443987 441987 441988 440989
      439990 439992 439995 441997 441998 443998 444997 445997
      445995 446993 446993
 2.00 488086 487078 485070 483061 482058 481055 480055 472054
      464055 457054 452056 453060 455062 459067 461084 461090
      460094 459098 459103 461111 462119 463124 466126 469127
      473127 476126 478124 480120 480115 482105 485098 488086
 3.00 482095 483088 481086 476081 472079 469080 466089 463097
      463102 464107 466115 467120 469122 471123 474120 476110
      479102 482095
 4.00 472101 473098 473096 473093 472092 471092 469093 468095
      468098 468100 469100 470102 472102 472101

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