Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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236
FXUS04 KWBC 241802
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
202 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 25/0000 UTC THRU JUN 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST STATES TO TX AND SRN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES...

A FRONTAL ZONE AND LEAD MESO-BOUNDARIES FROM LINGERING ONGOING
CONVECTION ARE SAGGING SOUTHWARD WELL IN THE WAKE OF CINDY AND
WILL INTERACT WITH POOLED MOISTURE CONTENT TO FOCUS WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZATION. WPC HAS A
ELONGATED SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THIS REGION
THAT INCLUDES AREAS PARTICUALRLY HIT HARD BY HEAVY RAINS FROM
CINDY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO WITH LIGHT STEERING FLOW
FLOODING CONCERNS PERSIST FOR SRN PARTS OF AL/MS AND LA. GENERALLY
MAINTAINED CLOSE WPC CONTINUITY...ALBEIT AMENDED SOME WITH UPDATED
12 UTC ARW GUIDANCE FOR MORE DETAILED QPF AMOUNTS AND LOCATION.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS SEVERAL HOURS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ERN NC/PARTS OF SC INTO SRN AL/MS AND
ACROSS TX INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES AS AIDED THERE BY
UPSLOPE FETCH UNDERNEATH SEWD DIGGING IMPULSES AND FAVORABLE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE. SRN/SERN TX ACTIVTY FOCUS TODAY WILL BE DRIVEN
PRIMARILY FROM MESO-BOUNDARIES SET DOWN BY CURRENT CONVECTION AND
HAVE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL. WPC HAS BEEN SENDING
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSIONS FOR THIS AREA IN A REGION
EXPERIENCING VERY HEAVY LOCAL DOWNPOURS LOCALLY AND ASSOCIATED
RUNOFF ISSUES AS SLOWED CELL MOTIONS/MERGER RAINFALL IS FURTHER
FOCUSED BY MESO-BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

...GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...

A FAVORED GUIDANCE COMPOSITE INDICATES THAT A SERIES OF VIGOROUS
BUT PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL ROUND AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH TO ALLOW INSTABILITY SHOWERS/STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SWATHS OF PCPN ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF THE GREAT LAKES/NERN US STATES. THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF
QPF APPEARS LIKELY FROM NRN MN AND U.P. OF MI/NRN LOWER MI...SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC...NY/NEW ENG WHERE AREAL AVG AMOUNTS MAY REACH
UPWARDS OF ONE HALF INCH.

SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 523110 524102 524094 522090 519087 517085 513087 511092
      512100 512105 514111 516111 521111 523110
 0.01 525934 526926 525919 525915 522912 518912 515914 513917
      510911 501897 498887 495881 494876 491865 489861 489856
      487851 486846 483834 479811 477795 476780 476757 477746
      477739 478735 479723 480711 477686 479681 479677 480673
      478670 477663 474664 466669 462669 458667 454667 450671
      447680 442686 438694 434701 429707 425715 420735 417746
      414753 412758 412764 410772 408781 408786 409793 414814
      414826 413830 414837 414844 413848 410855 408861 408865
      409878 413887 413891 415898 417901 418908 421912 426914
      432918 436923 443928 450930 459932 460938 462940 461944
      458946 457951 459957 456959 454959 446955 443952 442952
      440954 440959 445966 448970 449974 450981 450988 453992
      457994 465992 469991 471988 472984 474982 476982 491977
      497974 502973 506970 509970 514968 516964 518962 518957
      517948 520943 525934
 0.01 510079 507068 506057 504044 501034 498031 494030 490030
      487035 487040 489043 491056 494066 495071 498074 505079
      508081 510079
 0.01 493114 493112 493111 491110 489110 489111 489114 491115
      492115 493114
 0.01 447990 447988 446988 445985 443983 442981 441980 440978
      438978 436980 438983 438985 440988 441988 443990 445991
      446991 447990
 0.01 427864 426862 426860 427857 426855 425853 424853 422851
      420851 418853 417856 417858 417860 417863 419865 421867
      423869 424869 426867 427864
 0.01 399683 398678 394677 389678 386681 381688 376693 371700
      366706 350719 344724 339730 328746 323756 318764 312773
      308777 307781 303790 302794 299796 297799 293801 289802
      284802 277800 271795 267794 263795 260799 254801 250802
      247800 243792 240788 237786 233785 231789 229800 234808
      240809 241812 240815 238818 237824 239826 242823 246822
      250819 254813 258819 263825 265829 266833 268842 271846
      276847 293842 292847 292854 289864 286875 285879 285884
      287889 286893 283902 281902 280900 279895 277892 277886
      276881 275877 272875 267875 264878 263882 261885 261891
      258901 257907 258911 259923 258929 255933 249940 242945
      239948 236952 235956 235963 235974 233985 232992 233996
      234007 238012 244012 247014 249017 255018 264020 273022
      280023 285025 287026 289020 291020 293021 297024 300034
      300040 302044 305049 307051 305054 303056 300061 298065
      297071 294075 289076 280071 275067 269061 266060 265063
      266067 269071 277078 284093 291108 296116 300118 305119
      314117 321112 331106 336105 343105 347103 348098 349093
      352090 355087 357083 361077 363074 366071 373067 382063
      387062 391061 397060 401058 407054 409052 408047 402041
      403034 403027 396019 394014 392007 393003 395004 397009
      409019 411026 412029 416029 416025 414014 410002 410996
      408992 408988 405982 402978 400977 396980 394985 392991
      391993 389991 389987 388983 388979 389977 389963 386959
      385962 384966 384973 380983 376988 372989 367989 364987
      355984 353982 349981 346979 343976 339969 334958 331947
      331934 332928 331922 329916 326911 326901 330880 331874
      331866 334856 337847 339838 340834 343831 349827 354818
      357813 360810 368793 371786 373776 374771 376765 377760
      379757 383752 386747 390736 393725 391711 391705 393701
      397691
 0.01 397691 397689 398687 398686 399683
 0.01 382011 382008 382006 382004 383002 381999 381997 380995
      378995 376995 375997 374997 373999 373001 373003 373006
      373008 374009 376010 378012 379012 381013 382011
 0.25 501939 500933 499927 493917 488905 486899 482894 469902
      466900 467898 465891 466876 465870 466865 467858 470852
      473847 473839 472821 471815 471808 468797 466778 465760
      466754 466748 465739 463733 457723 455720 453720 450723
      446778 442787 439799 441815 441822 438827 439836 441841
      443847 444855 442861 443871 445877 448882 453892 455905
      458911 465910 467912 468916 468920 469924 470930 473934
      480942 482948 485953 490956 494954 497952 499948 501939
 0.25 382711 381706 378705 374706 363712 355721 345730 338740
      332752 329768 327775 323783 313805 309811 304812 297812
      291811 286810 281812 278814 275818 278821 281823 284824
      283827 279830 275830 272832 272837 274839 278839 281837
      286833 289829 290826 292826 297828 301833 300842 297846
      297850 299853 300875 297891 291904 289918 287933 280934
      275933 272932 269934 267940 267946 272950 278952 278957
      276960 272965 268968 261971 255972 251975 248978 246983
      242993 243998 247002 257008 263010 271009 276009 281007
      291999 305994 310995 312998 315005 316010 318012 322016
      326019 328025 331042 334052 328055 323059 309064 308069
      309073 313078 317082 319085 323086 329084 334087 337092
      339094 341093 341089 339087 339082 341079 350072 353064
      356057 363055 370054 377053 381052 383050 378037 376031
      374025 366018 361014 354013 346012 340009 332999 326994
      324992 323986 321971 318968 317965 317956 316938 316929
      316922 319906 319898 318889 319874 322857 323849 321839
      321833 323829 329824 334821 337817 344808 347803 349797
      352789 356784 361780 364775 365769 364764 364758 366754
      371742 379730 380727 381720 382711
 0.25 318785 319783 319780 319778 318776 317776 315776 315777
      314778 313779 312780 311781 311784 311786 312788 313788
      315789 317788 317787 318785 318785
 0.25 263949 261949 259951 259952 261952 263950 263949
 0.25 256954 255953 254953 254954 255954 256954
 0.50 487929 486924 484921 482921 482917 483912 482907 481904
      479904 477908 475912 474916 475919 479922 481927 484929
      487929 487929
 0.50 462797 462787 460780 457774 457769 455764 452770 453777
      454781 454786 450785 449789 451792 454794 455796 458803
      460803 461800 462797
 0.50 379714 376710 370710 364714 360718 357723 353726 348730
      345734 338744 333755 332768 331775 329781 324793 320806
      319811 318814 320815 327815 333812 341804 343799 346792
      348787 351783 356778 359772 360760 364746 368736 375726
      379714
 0.50 370030 368027 364025 359023 354024 350024 346026 348031
      350033 353036 358036 362034 364034 368033 370030
 0.50 328074 328070 328068 324066 321066 317066 313067 313069
      314071 316073 318075 320077 323078 327077 328074
 0.50 316781 316780 314780 313781 312783 312784 314785 316783
      316782 316781
 0.50 313824 311822 309822 305821 302821 300821 299823 300825
      304827 306829 306831 309832 311828 312826 313824
 0.50 314913 313896 313887 312883 310879 305875 302880 300891
      297897 294903 293910 293922 292933 292943 293947 291950
      286955 283962 279968 274972 259977 256978 254981 259985
      259989 256991 252993 249990 249994 250997 255001 262003
      267997 274995 283996 286995 290992 294987 300984 302976
      308971 308960 310952 308945 307939 308933 310924 311918
      314913
 0.50 310841 309837 307836 304837 302840 300844 300851 302857
      303861 302865 304869 307869 307863 308858 308852 310848
      310841 310841
 0.50 290820 290818 290816 288815 287814 286814 284814 284815
      283816 281817 283818 284819 285821 287821 288821 290820
      290820
 0.50 282945 281942 279939 277938 276937 274935 272935 270939
      269941 268943 270945 272946 274945 277945 279946 282945
 1.00 373720 371715 367715 363718 360722 356728 349734 343741
      339749 339755 341759 342762 342766 340768 331785 328793
      328797 329803 334802 336800 340790 343783 346779 350777
      353775 355770 357759 361740 371725 373720
 1.00 306895 306893 305892 304892 303893 302894 301895 301897
      302899 304898 305897 306895 306895
 1.00 303968 303967 301967 299968 297970 299972 301972 302971
      303970 303968
 1.00 299903 299901 297901 296901 295903 296905 296908 296910
      297912 295913 295914 297915 298914 297912 298910 298908
      298905 299904 299903
 1.00 293975 293972 292971 290971 289972 288974 289977 290978
      292977 293975
 1.50 371720 370718 368718 366718 365719 363719 363720 361722
      361725 360727 360729 360731 361732 363731 364730 366728
      368727 369725 370723 370721 371720
 1.50 356734 354733 350735 349737 347740 346741 344743 344748
      347750 349747 351744 353742 355739 356737 356734
 1.50 344777 342772 339774 337778 336782 333787 331790 330796
      335795 336791 338786 340783 343779 344777
 2.00 368723 368721 367720 365721 363722 363724 363726 364726
      366726 367725 368723

$$





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