Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 270602
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
201 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 27/1200 UTC THRU MAY 28/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR




DAY 1...

...CENTRAL U.S...

ANOTHER DAY OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACRS MUCH OF THE CNTL
U.S. AS SLOW MOVING UPR TROF INITIALLY LOCATED OVER THE CNTL/SRN
ROCKIES REGION LIFTS NEWD INTO THE CNTL PLAINS WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING.  VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL ONCE
AHEAD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLANS NWD INTO
THE UPR MS VALLEY.  WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLY
SIMILAR HANDLING OF THE UPR LOW/TROF...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY/AGREEMENT WITH CONVECTIVE DVLPMENT AND
THIS INCLUDES MOST OF THE HI RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AS
WELL.  THIS LEADS TO RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...THOUGH THERMAL/MSTR CONSIDERATIONS WITH PWS WELL IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES ACRS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
WOULD GENLY SUPPORT CONTINUED THREAT OF ORGANIZED HEAVY
RAINS..ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY SWD THRU
ARKANSAS/WRN LA AND ERN TX.  HOW REMNANT OUTFLOW BNDRIES FROM
OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY OVER SRN TX AS WELL AS CNTL KS PLAY OUT
THIS MRNG IS QUITE THE CHALLENGE AS AGAIN HI RES GUIDANCE
INCLUDING MULTIPLE HRRR RUNS HAVE NOT DONE PARTICULARLY WELL.
HOWEVER..MOST SUGGEST A SLIGHT EWD FOCUS FROM MOST OF THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE FOR SUBSEQUENT DVLPMENT TODAY/TONIGHT ACRS THE SOUTH AND
THIS IDEA WAS GENLY FOLLOWED.   THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINS SHOULD
CONTINUE THRU PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY SWD INTO ERN TX/AR/WRN LA
IS S OVER SRN/ERN TX WITH 40 KT SLY 85H FLOW AND GREATER THAN 1.75
INCH PROVIDING STG MSTR FLUX WELL AHEAD OF THE UPR TROF.   FARTHER
N...MDT CONVECTIVE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD INTO PARTS OF
THE UPR MIDWEST WITH DECENT RT ENTRANCE REGION JET ACRS SRN CANADA
AIDING BROAD SCALE ASCENT WELL IN ADVANCE OF SFC LOW.   A GENL
MODEL COMPROMISE/ENSEMBLE APCH WAS USED MOST AREAS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTH WHERE LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE ERN
CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES MODEL RUNS.

...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HI PLAINS...

SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTL MT AS HEIGHT FALLS FROM SLIGHTLY NEG TILTED
UPR TROF SWING EWD ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES FRI AFTN/NIGHT.  VERY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST..BUT DID LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
THE ERN MODEL CONSENSUS..OTHERWISE GLOBAL MODEL QPFS ARE
REASONABLE SIMILAR WITH AMOUNTS OF .50 TO 1+ INCH AMOUNTS THROUGH
CNTL MT.

ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS ACRS SRN FL
WITH INCREASINGLY MOIST ELY FLOW.  SCTD SHWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
FROM THE SRN APLCNS NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH MOIST UNSTABLE
CONDS AROUND WRN FRINGE OF UPR RIDGE.  AREAL AVG AMOUNTS FOR THESE
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT IN GENL AGREEMENT WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS.

SULLIVAN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 542198 538207 533214 531216 526216 522217 520223 520227
      522229 527231 530233 528237 524249 521255 520263 519269
      517274 514283 508289 506290 502289 487278 479275 475273
      473270 470261 468251 464247 460247 455247 452243 451239
      453235 456233 461233 455227 454221 454218 456218 467211
      472206 478202 481197 480189 478180 474172 469166 461163
      456160 453159 440144 437135 435126 429123 424122 418123
      413123 405126 403126 400127 400130 400140 402143 404144
      409145 416147 418154 412158 409159 404158 391147 387146
      384143 382140 379140 374139 367133 365129 364126 366121
      370118 372113 376111 379108 381105 385103 388100 385096
      381094 376089 367075 357065 359027 358020 357015 358007
      360002 361998 357995 354993 348992 340993 333997 316001
      309003 301003 293002 286995 279996 271999 258009 254010
      247010 243009 240005 240002 242997 246988 258959 261951
      268947 281940 286933 290926 294919 301912 308907 315903
      331891 337887 343882 357872 369865 375861 379861 383859
      388853 391850 393845 393838 394832 395827 395821 394814
      391813 388814 385817 383821 379843 376847 375851 371858
      355864 344865 337865 331861 327855 327850 330848 339843
      343835 346827 352819 357812 370797 388771 392766 395762
      396757 398750 399746 401741 404739 406734 408724 407717
      409713 413704 418696 422689 435671 445661 446656 447650
      449646 454644 460640 468638 471634 474635 483632 487629
      493627 498625 502626
 0.01 540734 538743 537749 534754 529761 524763 521766 508758
      503755 500754 498755 490757 487753 484749 481746 478744
      473744 469748 465755 460761 455768 453777 453784 452789
      454803 458815 467809 472805 476804 479807 485811 490816
      514840 518861 522884 520910 520918 518924 518938 520947
      520954 522961 522965 520971 520983 520991 521996 524007
      526010 526013 525019 523023 519026 515026 512027 508027
      506027 504031 504037 502040 497044 492045 491044 484038
      477032 474022 471011 470001 468998 463996 455996 448001
      445004 443008 440012 439019 438021 438025 440028 443032
      443036 442038 437039 430041 429047 430053 435059 440061
      445061 454065 459066 464065 467063 471063 474065 479066
      487067 492068 494066 499066 502067 508074 519077 525083
      539081 542081 544084 546085 548087 549091 555102 559109
 0.01 433708 432706 432703 431703 430704 429705 428707 426709
      425710 425712 425715 427716 428714 430713 431711 432711
      433708
 0.01 393198 390194 388192 385191 380187 373184 368183 364181
      362181 364187 369192 373195 378199 384200 386200 388197
      393198
 0.01 346758 338753 334738 330727 329722 325716 321713 315713
      308715 302718 291723 283728 278730 273733 270739 267744
      262752 258762 259768 258774 257781 254785 242789 240791
      236790 235786 236780 233779 232782 230787 229791 226789
      222791 222796 222809 223817 226821 227824 227828 225835
      225840 226843 228843 232841 233836 232829 234822 236816
      238814 242815 242822 245825 248821 252819 262823 265827
      271830 275830 274827 272825 273822 274820 273817 277816
      281813 284808 285806 289804 295803 301805 305806 311806
      318805 323802 327799 330794 333789 335783 339774 343766
      346758
 0.01 248780 246778 244778 242779 240779 240781 241783 242783
      244783 246782 248780 248780
 0.25 541181 541175 540171 537164 533159 527156 520157 514158
      503163 494168 492174 493180 496185 500193 501201 502209
      504212 507211 511206 516203 526197 531194 533192 535187
      541181
 0.25 525714 525705 524696 521681 519677 515675 508672 499670
      490670 485671 481667 479663 477661 469668 467672 466677
      467692 466697 464703 467704 472701 474705 478708 482708
      488708 491708 495711 503715 506718 508723 511727 514730
      516732 518730 520726 524719 525714
 0.25 502217 502216 500217 502218 502217
 0.25 498224 498218 494216 489214 484214 480214 476214 478218
      482217 485220 488223 492225 496225 498224
 0.25 506096 506091 503087 496083 478081 468078 461079 458082
      456086 454091 452094 447111 444120 442126 443131 448133
      453134 456132 459128 463119 468115 480106 487103 495103
      502101 506096
 0.25 506967 506960 505955 506949 504945 502950 503954 502962
      502967 501975 500980 499988 502987 504980 504975 505969
      506967
 0.25 479246 480244 480241 480240 480239 480236 480234 480231
      480230 479228 478227 478228 477229 476230 476232 476234
      476235 477238 477240 476242 476244 477245 477247 479246
      479246
 0.25 487851 487843 486837 483835 477836 469838 459836 452838
      448838 446842 446848 445853 441860 433862 422864 414868
      406875 401881 398883 393884 383885 376888 361896 342904
      329912 323916 315921 302931 293935 287942 283948 281954
      279964 279968 281971 288975 294976 300975 305977 308980
      313979 317975 322971 331967 344960 348960 352961 356963
      360966 366973 375977 378980 378985 385990 389993 389997
      387006 388011 391016 392020 388023 387028 389033 387038
      383042 378049 377053 379056 389058 393059 397057 402050
      407041 412032 413026 412024 412021 418015 421013 425013
      430009 434004 439995 443985 447976 454969 457966 461966
      468960 474954 473948 471947 466944 466941 469931 470922
      470914 470906 468899 465889 463877 467869 472865 477860
      480858 483859 486857 487851
 0.25 424749 424744 423742 421739 417738 415741 413744 412746
      411749 409751 408754 410756 412756 414755 417753 421752
      422751 424749
 0.25 408019 409017 408015 406015 404014 402012 401010 399011
      398011 399013 399014 397015 396016 396018 397019 397021
      398021 400022 402022 404022 405021 406021 407020 408019
 0.25 364827 363824 360824 358825 356828 355831 353834 352837
      353841 356842 357841 359839 361836 362833 364829 364827
 0.25 319748 320743 318741 314741 312743 308746 304751 300755
      297759 296763 296767 302770 307770 313768 316764 318757
      319750 319748
 0.25 287770 285769 282770 278772 277774 276776 276780 277784
      280785 283784 285781 286779 286777 287772 287770
 0.25 280800 279799 278799 277798 276799 277800 278801 279801
      280800
 0.50 528177 529172 528169 524168 519172 515176 511179 506180
      507185 512189 517189 521186 525182 528177
 0.50 496089 496087 493088 486087 473083 469083 468085 463084
      458088 457098 451112 446126 451125 456123 458121 460116
      461109 464107 468107 473103 478099 484099 490098 494094
      496089
 0.50 460930 459915 457907 456899 456892 455886 450884 445884
      436890 431893 427898 421904 416905 410906 400912 396908
      392904 387897 382895 376895 371896 366898 355904 346907
      341910 337913 335917 331921 322926 314931 307932 303934
      298937 295940 296948 297955 300966 303970 306971 311970
      316967 326961 333958 343952 353949 358950 362954 369960
      379963 384963 389961 399955 403953 406950 408944 412940
      425942 432941 435936 438936 440940 444943 450944 454945
      458940 460934 460930
 0.50 437961 437956 437951 435945 431946 429949 428950 424951
      414955 409959 405963 401967 396969 392973 390979 393984
      400986 404989 408991 414995 417995 419994 423989 426982
      431971 435966 437961
 0.50 401044 402039 403035 400033 397034 396037 394041 393043
      391045 389047 390052 392053 395054 397052 399049 400046
      401044
 0.50 402002 403000 402998 401997 399998 397999 397000 396002
      396004 397006 399005 400005 401003 402002
 1.00 475091 474090 473089 471089 469090 467090 467092 467093
      469093 471094 472094 473093 474092 475091
 1.00 452928 452927 452925 451923 450922 449920 448920 447918
      445917 443918 442921 443922 444923 445924 446925 447926
      448928 450929 452928 452928
 1.00 402929 402926 399925 394926 387930 380934 373938 367945
      366950 368952 377956 383956 388954 395950 400944 401931
      402929
 1.00 375918 376912 371910 362911 348918 334925 321934 315939
      311945 308954 309962 313962 316960 322956 328951 336948
      350942 359939 364934 373921 375918
 1.50 394938 393936 391936 389938 386940 384942 382943 380945
      380949 382950 384948 386947 388945 390943 392940 394938
 1.50 361930 362925 360921 359920 355920 344923 337925 333928
      324934 319938 316943 314948 313956 316957 318955 323952
      332945 341940 353936 358933 361930
 2.00 350930 347927 343926 335928 329932 323937 319941 316947
      314953 317954 322949 327945 333941 339938 345934 350930

$$




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