Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 190647
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 19/1200 UTC THRU JUL 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...GULF COAST STATES AND UP THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY/EASTERN GREAT LAKES...

THE MID TO UPPER TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
EVENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY LIFT
OUT THIS PERIOD..SO IN GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD LESSEN
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.  THERE ARE HOWEVER A COUPLE OF H5
S/WVS WITH THIS TROF AND ANOTHER ON THE TAIL END OF IT OVER
EASTERN TX AT THIS TIME THAT WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS GOING THIS PERIOD FROM THE GULF COAST REGION
UP THRU THE APPPALACHIANS AND INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.  THE LEAD S/WV NOW VICINITY OF THE MID OH VALLEY AND
THE DOWNSTREAM ONE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
COMBINE WITH MORE FOCUSED AXES OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND HIGHER PWS TO PRODUCE THE MORE ORGANIZED AND
GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  THE LATEST MODEL MASS FIELD FORECASTS AND QPFS ARE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO..WITH ONE RELATIVE
RAINFALL MAXIMUM OVER EASTERN OH/WESTERN PA INTO SOUTHWESTERN NY
STATE AND ANOTHER RELATIVE MAXIMUM OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE AGAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST FROM LA INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE..ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST-EASTNORTHEASTWARD PUSH OF THE
S/WV NOW ALONG THE MID/UPPER TX COAST.  CONVECTION IS ALREADY
INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OUT IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO
PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN WHAT IS AND WILL BE A SLIGHTLY
STRENGTHENING AND BROAD LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW REGIME OFF THE
GULF..WHICH WILL IN TURN KEEP VERY HIGH PWS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
IN PLACE FROM LA EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN GA AND THE FL
PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL PENINSULA.  THE GLOBAL MODELS AND HIGH RES
GUIDANCE QPFS ARE ALL INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER NARROW
AXIS OF HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE GULF COAST..WITH SOME
RATHER MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE LATITUDE OF THESE HEAVIER
RAINS.  THE NAM HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS SEEMED A LITTLE TOO FAR
NORTH..SO STAYED SOUTH OF IT..IN LINE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
GENERALLY MORE AGREEABLE GUIDANCE.  THE VERY DEEP MOISTURE/HIGH
PWS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES AND ISOLATED VERY HEAVY RAINS..WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME ADDITONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS FROM SOUTHERN LA EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE EAST-EASTSOUTHEASTWARD MOVING H5 TROF NOW JUST OFF THE B.C.
COAST INTO ALBERTA AND SASK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING
SOME IMPROVING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER MOISTURE/PWS INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN WA..SUPPORTING SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED RAINS IN
THE FAVORED TERRAIN OF THE OLYMPICS AND NORTHERN CASCADES.  STUCK
CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS OF SOME 0.25-0.50 AMOUNTS IN THE
OLYMPICS AND SOME LOCALLY GREATER THAN 0.50 INCH TOTALS IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES.


...EXTREME EASTERN NC...

THE VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
OFF THE NC COAST WILL THROW SOME INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT
RAINS BACK INTO THE OUTER BANKS/EXTREME EASTERN NC EARLY IN THE
PERIOD..WITH SOME 0.25 INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY GRAZING THE OUTER BANKS.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 562855 559850 555847 547843 541844 535845 528852 512868
      509870 506872 504870 499870 496868 496863 498846 498842
      496840 492840 483845 476852 467861 464865 461869 457874
      455880 451889 448896 448904 448913 445919 442924 440933
      443940 441948 435957 433959 433963 433966 435968 442964
      447961 450957 454954 457949 464940 471933 487917 502904
      505901 509898 512898 516895 519895 521897 531918 534925
      538931 541936 545938 551936 555933 558930 561926 565920
      567913
 0.01 525257 523251 521243 519236 519232 520230 529228 533224
      536219 539213 540203 540186 540178 539169 540161 540157
      540151 539148 536141 534135 534125 533118 531113 525102
      521099 518098 515100 511102 509108 507114 507122 508130
      507135 503142 498145 494141 492137 481135 482140 485144
      490148 491152 491157 488162 484164 482168 484175 488178
      492183 500193 503198 504205 502207 501206 497201 493197
      491196 486198 480202 472208 463213 458222 461228 462232
      460235 455236 453237 452240 455246 458245 463245 469246
      469255 472262 477264 480266 482268 483274 486280 488285
      492290 502295 506299 510298
 0.01 533984 532973 530965 523960 517959 501958 496959 494961
      489962 487963 477974 473980 470986 471991 474994 480994
      486990 494990 497989 501989 508989 515994 521995 528994
      532986 533984
 0.01 484232 484230 483229 483227 482226 481226 481229 480231
      481232 483233 484232
 0.01 466782 465777 463774 460769 455766 446767 434770 424777
      419779 414781 408781 403784 397786 392790 381795 369800
      360802 354805 349807 342809 338807 333803 330800 326798
      319800 318803 319809 313812 308815 304819 287837 284842
      283848 284864 283871 282877 280891 278902 278919 279936
      278941 277945 274950 263970 261976 258979 253982 249986
      246989 244994 241008 240016 235019 231025 229031 228038
      230044 233055 241074 245079 249083 258089 279103 289109
      294111 300111 303107 305101 304095 304091 302089 301086
      302080 302076 300073 298069 289061 289051 285047 277040
      272037 269032 269025 271022 275022 280024 281023 282019
      283015 282008 280997 281989 283983 286975 287968 289962
      292956 293951 295946 306916 309907 312900 317893 321887
      326883 331884 336886 340889 345888 353881 361871 377855
      398841 422833 433828 437826 442822 457806 461800 463795
      466782
 0.01 462035 459030 457029 456026 456022 453018 451016 446012
      437011 433016 432020 433023 436031 438035 438040 445041
      453042 457042 459040 462035
 0.01 406715 404705 401701 396698 391699 384701 380705 373714
      354721 351722 349724 345728 338737 331746 327757 324772
      325775 328779 331781 333780 338776 345768 356763 363761
      366760 368758 384742 392733 400725 406715
 0.01 401206 399203 396201 392197 390194 384188 380185 375183
      370181 367179 363179 359182 359186 362188 370193 379198
      381202 385203 393207 401206
 0.01 408150 401148 397147 394145 389146 386149 386153 390160
      389166 388169 387178 389181 392181 398176 402170 404166
      404160 405154 406151 408150
 0.01 408119 409101 408100 405105 400108 395105 385110 380110
      376116 372119 366119 365124 367129 371130 373133 374136
      376137 384129 388125 389124 393124 398127 400125 404125
      408119
 0.01 406056 392050 390044 391039 389043 385046 380044 377043
      377037 376034 377030 383026 387025 390022 393020 395016
      395012 394009 393006 388006 383006 380007 371008 358011
      343019 334026 341032 338035 335036 328040 327048 327054
      328057 333058 336056 343055 348055 350057 355065 357068
      360070 363068 364063 367062 369066 375081 378089 380085
      383081 387079 391078 393080 397076 399071 400067 406056
 0.01 364157 363155 361156 361157 362157 364157 364157
 0.01 344173 343169 341166 336164 331162 327161 324158 321160
      323163 327166 330168 334167 339168 342173 344173
 0.01 341100 342098 340096 340095 338093 337093 335095 336097
      338098 339100 340100 341100 341100
 0.01 288810 285805 283802 279798 274797 263796 259794 255795
      249798 246801 244803 243806 243811 242816 244820 246821
      249821 252818 258817 262817 274819 284815 288810
 0.25 534212 536204 536197 535187 532176 530167 528156 525147
      523136 521128 518123 516123 515126 517137 519148 515158
      513161 511167 506172 505179 506185 509193 512203 515211
      520218 523220 526220 532216 534212
 0.25 516272 517267 517264 515257 513245 508231 503220 498210
      495205 492204 485204 481207 477212 477215 482221 486224
      490229 492232 498244 502254 502259 499259 495255 490245
      480239 476238 474240 475243 483252 488262 494272 497278
      501282 504282 506280 510276 516272
 0.25 455784 455779 453777 445778 441779 434780 424784 417788
      413791 407794 401798 396802 393807 389811 383813 371814
      357812 352814 347817 341819 335818 330818 327822 326825
      323826 315824 311824 308826 304829 297837 292845 290855
      289867 286893 286919 287936 290938 294935 297930 301919
      305906 311881 317865 322860 326858 333858 345858 365857
      372851 378845 383837 388831 397825 409822 419823 424822
      428819 438812 443808 445802 447795 450790 454787 455784
 0.25 369739 369734 363734 358735 354737 351740 348744 345747
      345752 347755 353755 358752 362751 366748 366744 369739
      369739
 0.25 276073 277064 276057 273051 269046 265042 262037 255025
      253023 250024 246028 241033 238037 239053 242058 246062
      255071 261074 269076 272077 274079 276074 276073
 0.25 264809 265806 263805 263804 261804 259804 258804 256804
      254805 252806 251808 252810 253811 255811 256811 257811
      258812 260812 261811 262810 264809 264809
 0.50 533206 533195 531186 528179 523172 516169 512176 511186
      513195 516203 519210 522213 525214 531212 533206
 0.50 512263 509250 508243 506237 502227 497216 494212 489209
      484209 481213 484219 488223 493231 499240 502246 504251
      508261 510265 512263
 0.50 437794 435790 433789 424790 418793 411797 406803 405808
      412810 419813 426814 431807 436801 437794
 0.50 381825 378822 372823 366824 361822 356820 350821 339823
      335827 333831 332838 334845 338847 343848 348849 354850
      361849 367849 372846 374842 380832 381825
 0.50 317853 317847 316844 310839 302838 297843 294850 293860
      291876 290895 290914 290919 291923 294922 298915 301909
      305892 307884 309877 315862 317853
 0.50 262053 261048 260045 256041 254039 250038 246040 244044
      245048 247052 250055 253058 258057 261054 262053
 1.00 527201 528196 527193 527189 525185 524182 523180 519180
      518181 516183 515187 515190 516193 518196 520199 522202
      523203 525203 527201
 1.00 310865 311859 309854 308851 305850 300854 297861 296870
      295878 296887 298892 302891 304884 306875 309869 310865
 1.50 306865 307863 306861 304862 303863 302864 301865 301866
      300867 300870 299871 299872 299874 298876 299878 300880
      301880 302878 303876 304874 305872 305871 305869 306867
      306866 306865

$$




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