Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 260633
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 26/1200 UTC THRU AUG 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...

SATL IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL CIRC OVER NRN AZ AND PSBL SECOND OVER
ECNTL AZ LIFTING NWD AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH.  MODELS GENL AGREE ON TAKING NRN AZ CIRC
RAPIDLY NWD THEN EWD OVER TOP OF UPR RIDGE AXIS ACRS WY BY THUR
MRNG...WHILE THE MORE SRN VORT TRACKS MORE NEWD ACRS CO.  BROAD
SCALE LIFT PROVIDED BY BOTH FEATURES WITHIN AXIS OF HIER MSTR WILL
PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY FROM NRN AZ..MUCH
OF CNTL/ERN UT INTO WRN/CNTL CO AND WY.  BY WED NIGHT...HEIGHT
FALLS EMERGING ACRS THE NRN PLAINS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL
JET EAST OF LEE LOW ACRS WRN SD RESULTING IN AN INCREASED THREAT
OF TSTMS ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING EAST OF
THE LOW .  DESPITE REASONABLY CLOSE MASS FIELDS...MODEL QPFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS..ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS.  MANUAL QPFS GENLY
FAVORED AN ENSEMBLE APCH BLENDED WITH CONTINUITY.


...MAINE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VERY SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF WAVY N/S COLD
FRONT THRU MAINE THIS PD AS ASSOCD UPR TROF MOVES VERY SLOWLY EWD
FROM THE GT LAKES REGION.  20 TO 25 KT SLY 85H FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
DECENT LOW LEVEL MSTR FLUX AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  GIVEN
REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HERE HAVE GONE WITH BLEND OF 00Z
GUIDANCE..SUPPORTING SOME .50 INCH PLUS AREAL AVG AMOUNTS ACRS ERN
MAINE..WITH EMBDD HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHERE STGR CONVECTION DVLPS.

...SE U.S./FL...
`
PROXIMITY OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF NC/SC
COASTS WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT POTNL FOR SCTD TSTMS ACRS THE SE
COAST.  DECENT RT ENTRANCE JET SUPPORT WILL SET UP ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NC/SC COASTS..BUT WITH DEEPER MSTR FCST TO FOCUS
OFFSHORE...HAVE KEPT EXPECTED AREAL AVG AMOUNTS BETWEEN .25 TO .50
INCH ALONG THE COASTS.  FARTHER SOUTH...DEEP MSTR WITH PWS AOA 2"
ACRS MUCH OF CNTL/SRN FL WITHIN WEAK SWLY 85H FLOW AHEAD OF SRN
EXTENSION OF ERN U.S. UPR TROF SHOULD PROVIDE SOME DECENT RAINFALL
COVERAGE ACRS THE FL PENINSULA WITH SOME LOCAL AREAL AVG AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SULLIVAN

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 515667 510659 505652 496641 489636 483633 476631 469631
      460631 452633 435639 432641 427644 424652 428659 433664
      440669 441674 436675 427678 425680 424684 423689 424696
      423699 425704 430707 440705 450703 459700 475700 477704
      475706 473707 470709 467713 467717 469720 475723 479722
      483723 490724 494716 495712 496707 501688 498680 498675
      499672 503666 508667 512669 515667
 0.01 511768 509763 508754 504745 500739 493737 488739 484738
      474739 462733 454730 446732 442735 438736 433742 430745
      427750 423758 420766 416774 413782 413789 412794 413806
      413812 412817 411821 411824 414825 417825 420823 423815
      425811 428808 431809 436812 442817 449819 451821 456821
      460822 465823 472826 477834 481842 494851 500849 503847
      505841 506836 506827 505813 504805 505799 509792 511779
      510771 511768
 0.01 454132 453125 454115 455104 455100 453097 449092 447087
      446083 449081 451081 451078 452073 454071 454066 456060
      457052 457035 459018 460011 457006 450993 447988 443984
      436976 428968 422960 419956 418954 414953 405951 395954
      387956 385957 384961 387964 390965 393966 406967 415972
      422982 426990 428995 424999 421003 423009 424014 424019
      424029 425045 425050 422051 418049 412048 411045 403050
      398052 394048 390045 387045 386047 385051 381050 376046
      372043 365043 360046 355048 348055 346058 343058 338056
      335056 333058 334060 337062 344068 344072 340075 330079
      321088 313088 310087 306085 299079 286080 279079 275081
      273085 275088 286091 289092 290095 292100 295106 300110
      308118 313121 318120 324120 328121 330123 334127 336132
      338143 337150 335156 336161 336163 333163 327161 321156
      316153 309152 306155 310159 318165 323167 328169 341171
      345180 348154 352158 359159 361161 365162 368159 368153
      365150 363150 358150 358144 362143 368144 376148 382149
      388149 396150 398147 401146 411145 418137 423132 427130
      431140 435144 436148 440151 441148 445148 454132
 0.01 371702 368704 363706 358709 354713 344730 337740 331749
      326756 319763 315767 307768 294771 273778 266779 261782
      252787 244793 242803 239816 237826 235837 235843 234848
      236852 239849 243845 247842 251839 255842 266843 298829
      316820 324814 329807 334803 338798 343794 347792 351791
      354786 357777 362765 364760 366753 368743 368730 370714
      371702
 0.01 364976 364974 362971 361969 357969 353969 350969 348969
      346971 344973 343976 344976 346978 350978 352978 355976
      359976 362976 364976
 0.01 302992 303986 302983 298977 293972 291969 291964 288957
      283952 277947 272945 266939 261937 256937 254939 252941
      252944 255952 257960 260966 263972 268978 275979 286987
      293991 299994 302992
 0.25 485656 482649 478645 471643 465643 457645 450648 445652
      443655 443659 446665 448675 445681 445685 446688 448691
      451692 459691 467689 472689 480687 485683 486679 486674
      483669 485656
 0.25 448024 449019 448015 446007 444000 441000 437005 434011
      433018 433027 435034 436036 440037 443032 447027 448024
 0.25 439100 438097 435093 431091 428088 425087 423088 423091
      426095 428099 427104 426106 428107 432106 435105 439101
      439100
 0.25 419076 419073 417070 414066 411063 405061 395065 390065
      385066 378066 372065 367065 363067 362084 358096 358101
      359106 361111 362116 359122 358128 359133 363135 369135
      375135 379133 382131 391125 394123 397120 408117 411114
      412110 412106 410099 407095 405093 407088 414081 419076
 0.25 389095 389093 388093 387095 388096 389095
 0.25 351766 347761 342758 337760 333765 326775 316783 306789
      301792 295792 288791 280791 268795 260797 255800 252804
      250810 250816 254821 257825 262827 266828 270827 272825
      272822 281819 285818 288816 291810 300808 315807 325802
      335794 339791 342786 351766
 0.25 350121 351119 351117 350114 349113 347113 346112 344112
      342113 342115 342118 343120 345122 346123 348124 350123
      350122 350121
 0.50 473652 470650 468649 465649 459649 458650 453653 451657
      453661 455666 459668 462669 466667 469664 470661 470658
      472653 473652
 0.50 475680 475675 473673 470671 466671 461672 456674 453677
      449679 449682 452684 456686 461685 466684 471682 475680
 0.50 444022 444019 443017 442015 441014 441013 440014 439015
      437016 437017 437019 437021 437023 438026 438027 440028
      442027 442026 443024 444022 444022
 0.50 412075 412073 412071 412070 411068 410068 408066 407066
      405066 403066 402067 403069 403070 405070 406072 407072
      406073 405074 406076 408075 410075 411075 412075
 0.50 407105 406104 405105 405106 407105 407105
 0.50 403109 405106 403105 398105 391106 386106 384108 380113
      374117 369122 368126 369129 372131 376130 382127 388124
      391122 393119 398114 403109 403109
 0.50 395078 394073 390071 387075 383075 378074 375075 374078
      374084 373087 378089 383088 386086 390082 393080 395078
 0.50 341777 341773 339772 334774 330776 327781 324785 320790
      320793 321796 326797 330794 334789 337784 340779 341777
 0.50 292799 290797 289797 288798 287797 286797 284797 283796
      282796 281796 279796 277796 277797 279799 281799 283800
      284800 285800 287800 288800 290801 292800 292799
 0.50 277813 277809 275807 271805 268800 263798 257801 254806
      253812 255818 259822 265824 266819 268816 272816 275815
      277813
 1.00 270810 269810 267809 267808 265808 263807 262807 261806
      260806 258807 258809 260811 262812 264811 266811 267811
      269810 270810

$$





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