Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 201857
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 21/0000 UTC THRU AUG 22/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

WPC HAS BEEN INVOLVED IN COORDINATION OF AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
UPGRADE OVER PARTS OF TEXAS. QPF WAS INCREASED NEAR THE SAN
ANTONIO AREA. ELSEWHERE THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH...BUT THERE ARE FLUCTUATIONS IN MAGNITUDE AS WPC
WORKED TO KEEP UP WITH MODEL TRENDS. THE DAY 1 QPF WAS BASED
LARGELY UPON A BLEND OF THE WRF-ARW...GFS...AND PREVIOUS WPC
FORECAST.

UPDATES TO THE DAY 1 QPF DISCUSION WILL BE DELAYED. THANK YOU FOR
YOUR PATIENCE. - BURKE


...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES

THE LATEST MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF
THE CENTRAL U.S. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY---SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY.  THE PRIMARY VORT IN THIS AMPLIFYING
TROF WILL SUPPORT A DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION
PRECIPITATION AREA FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
UPPER LAKES. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN THIS AXIS---WITH AREAL AVERAGE 1-2"+
AMOUNTS DEPICTED FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO MOST OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN.

LOWER LAKES---OH VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY---TN VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY

THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY---OH VALLEY---TN VALLEY AND LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  WHILE PW VALUES
WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN A NARROW BAND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT---2 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY TOTALS.  STILL---WELL DEFINED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN THIS HI
PW AXIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY

THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING
MID U.S. TROF CURRENTLY PRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW SATURDAY AS IT PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE
AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES TO PERSIST LONGER IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY--SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
ACROSS NORTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TX

TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT---THERE IS A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF 100W FROM THE
U.S./MEXICAN BORDER---NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX IN THE
VICINITY OF SAN ANTONIO..AUSTIN---WACO.  THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH VORTS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO
INTO CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TX.  THERE ARE A VARIETY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS OF THESE VORTS---BUT GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THIS AXIS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 22/00Z
 0.01 524254 526242 527231 525222 522217 520215 516213 512211
      510212 505217 501220 495222 488220 486223 485227 484232
      486235 490240 494246 493258 495265 502275 506278 508278
      512274 517268 520261 524254
 0.01 533174 533168 533162 531157 529153 525154 522157 523163
      524168 525174 527180 530181 532176 533174
 0.01 525807 525799 521794 515786 503772 501770 495773 485777
      477781 473783 471784 469783 474776 480770 492759 496756
      498752 500740 501730 502723 502720 500719 492713 484708
      478703 475701 469703 445709 435712 429714 425717 416721
      412724 409725 407723 402720 399724 397727 396731 393735
      386739 366743 361742 357739 353737 347738 344741 341745
      336751 327761 317773 319792 314823 308837 302840 296848
      291855 284876 278886 283910 284921 282931 279941 275947
      266959 256974 250981 246985 242987 236992 233995 232001
      230006 230012 232021 234026 239029 242032 245034 245036
      240039 237042 237048 237053 242058 245061 246065 245068
      247070 252076 258082 262089 276103 278107 282110 289114
      292116 292118 289125 298131 306135 316134 321139 324141
      324147 318152 315154 311155 309158 313159 318158 321161
      324160 327156 330153 333149 336143 336136 336131 336127
      338129 342137 348144 352147 355152 356157 357162 359167
      362170 365168 364163 367158 368154 367150 364146 362143
      362139 363137 372134 378130 379128 377125 370121 362116
      359106 358098 361093 365083 373085 379085 383082 384075
      383069 381063 382061 386061 392065 394064 393059 394052
      392048 388041 386038 382033 383026 383020 379018 374018
      371020 366027 363032 358035 349039 341042 335042 332041
      331038 328028 326023 327017 329014 331010 329998 332990
      335980 338971 340967 340960 342951 347945 351937 357930
      368912 378898 390881 395873 398868 402865 408860 410856
      413857 414863 417866 419872 423873 437879 432897 431902
      432907 436916
 0.01 436916 439924 441928 443929 449933 455931 463929 467927
      469925 478915 487904 492898 496892 501886 505880 510874
      514867 518860 522855 523834 524821 525810 525807
 0.01 407215 404207 403202 400199 390196 383190 375184 366182
      364184 366187 374193 380198 384201 389202 393205 395208
      399211 403213 407215
 0.01 286812 286806 283802 279798 275796 270796 262795 257796
      253799 249802 251798 249794 246792 244794 240801 238808
      236818 236828 237836 241836 243833 246825 247817 248807
      250807 252810 258815 261817 264818 268819 273818 278818
      281817 286812
 0.01 273832 273828 271826 269824 267823 265822 263820 259820
      255821 253822 253826 255828 257830 259832 262833 264833
      267833 271833 273832
 0.25 514835 514827 514820 510812 500803 493800 486797 479800
      474803 469804 466803 458802 452801 449802 448807 449812
      447814 442822 438826 435834 435838 439838 442839 442843
      443848 444853 442856 434859 427862 429865 433864 437864
      440865 445872 447877 447879 445890 446901 448911 450913
      454915 461914 467912 474908 491881 500867 508855 511850
      513845 514835
 0.25 485738 485729 483723 477719 468719 458722 441729 433732
      426735 416736 406738 403741 403744 404748 403750 400751
      392750 388749 382751 377767 378773 381778 382783 382789
      376797 370802 367801 365798 363794 360792 351793 349796
      349800 351804 353810 358816 354824 349826 347829 331857
      328861 328866 332867 335870 337872 336876 335881 333885
      333892 335898 338900 340899 343895 346888 350881 354872
      356874 356880 356891 356896 350896 347903 346908 346913
      347914 350913 352910 355903 361902 364899 368891 373883
      381878 390863 399851 397818 405813 409811 413812 415815
      415820 417825 420827 420830 417834 416839 417842 422841
      425837 427833 425828 436816 437811 436807 440806 444804
      447800 449790 453782 458771 464766 472761 477756 481750
      484743 485738
 0.25 393796 391796 390797 391797 393796 393796
 0.25 367054 364051 357050 352051 349054 345058 343060 341058
      339054 335051 331049 326045 320038 316035 311033 306032
      303034 301039 302047 300054 297053 295054 284056 281059
      282063 285067 290069 295071 300072 305071 312072 320069
      327069 334070 340070 340067 341063 344064 351064 354064
      359066 361066 363061 367054
 0.25 355766 356764 355761 354761 352762 351762 350763 349764
      348765 349765 351766 352766 354766 355766
 0.25 353119 352114 350110 345103 342094 339085 334078 330076
      327077 327082 328085 333092 338101 343107 344113 345116
      349121 351121 353119
 0.25 346127 347125 346123 345121 344122 344125 344126 345127
      346127 346127
 0.25 340779 339775 339771 339766 336765 334767 333770 332774
      332776 332779 333783 334785 336784 339782 340779
 0.25 329131 329127 329120 330114 329109 327105 325102 322104
      321110 321117 321121 322127 324130 326132 329132 329131
 0.25 330958 331945 330931 328923 323917 315913 309908 305901
      303898 298898 294900 292904 291915 294931 292936 289939
      284946 281952 276960 274964 272968 271973 268976 259988
      254994 251998 247000 243004 241008 240014 241020 242024
      247025 250028 253035 257035 259033 262028 265026 270025
      274024 278022 282024 287023 290022 295019 298019 308020
      313016 318009 322003 325992 328972 330958
 0.25 311126 310125 308124 306123 304124 304125 306127 308127
      309127 311126
 0.25 304089 305087 305085 305084 303082 301081 299081 298082
      299084 300086 301088 301089 302090 304089 304089
 0.25 291094 292088 291085 287080 275071 273069 272064 274058
      271050 267044 261040 259038 255038 250043 248046 247050
      249054 252057 254063 255072 259077 270085 275092 280095
      288096 291094
 0.25 273805 273803 273801 272801 270800 268800 266800 265800
      263801 261803 262805 263805 265805 267805 269805 271806
      272806 273805
 0.50 509833 508823 506819 503817 497817 492820 487821 486819
      489811 489806 487803 484803 478805 471809 461815 451826
      448831 445837 444844 446846 450846 457845 461845 465846
      466850 465855 461861 457864 453869 451879 451888 454903
      455908 458910 465907 469903 473900 488875 492870 496863
      502852 507841 509833
 0.50 477737 476730 474728 471726 467725 460728 453732 447736
      439740 425745 420739 412742 407745 410746 410751 409756
      406757 400755 394752 387753 385756 386761 390768 391777
      397780 401781 402786 403789 402792 399795 394800 395803
      399803 407801 414796 418795 418799 418803 419809 421813
      423813 426810 428807 431802 435797 439788 444781 452770
      457764 463760 469755 473750 477737
 0.50 390803 391799 388799 386795 384797 382800 381804 381807
      381811 382814 384815 386813 387811 389808 390806 390803
 0.50 386861 387859 385858 384859 383860 382861 380863 379864
      378865 377866 377868 377871 377872 376873 377874 379875
      380873 381873 382870 382869 383868 383866 384865 385863
      385862 386861
 0.50 377828 375825 371823 365821 361823 359826 357830 355831
      348835 345840 344846 346849 352852 356853 357857 359865
      358885 360888 363885 364887 367888 370880 369873 372866
      369858 369855 370850 371842 377828
 0.50 360056 359055 358054 356056 357057 359056 360056
 0.50 330057 331054 329053 326051 323048 319046 317043 314042
      311043 315046 318049 321052 319056 321057 327057 330058
      330057
 0.50 326967 327956 327945 326928 321922 318921 315923 310920
      304918 301916 298916 299927 297934 294941 290945 286952
      282957 279963 276970 275974 272976 265986 260991 256997
      246004 244007 245012 246015 246020 251023 254025 257025
      280012 282009 286009 290008 295009 300012 303014 307013
      315002 319995 320988 325977 326967
 0.50 313943 312941 311943 312945 313943
 0.50 288091 288089 288088 286087 285087 284086 282085 281084
      279083 277082 276082 275081 274081 273083 274085 275087
      276088 277089 277090 278091 280091 282091 284091 286092
      287092 288091
 0.50 269056 269051 265048 262047 256045 251046 250050 253053
      255056 257059 260063 263066 266066 267060 269056
 1.00 503839 503832 501829 495827 489829 482834 478839 473845
      471848 470853 473856 477857 482860 487860 490858 495853
      499847 503841 503839
 1.00 484814 481811 476812 468816 461820 457828 450834 447839
      447841 450842 452840 456838 459836 462837 468836 471833
      475827 481819 484814
 1.00 468749 462737 460736 457738 452743 446747 439747 432751
      427755 423762 417765 412766 408766 406766 408768 408774
      410779 415782 420781 422778 426774 433776 439774 450764
      461755 465750 468749
 1.00 475890 475882 474875 473870 469868 464870 461871 457874
      456879 456884 458890 460893 463896 468896 473895 475890
      475890
 1.00 323971 323963 322957 320952 317949 314952 309955 305952
      305945 303939 302942 301947 300950 301953 303958 302963
      297966 294966 289969 284972 277977 271986 264992 261995
      258000 256006 262007 267010 270010 272008 278002 285003
      292002 298004 301006 304007 306007 308001 312992 318982
      321977 322973 323971
 1.00 320945 320943 319943 319945 319946 320945
 1.50 493843 494840 493838 491837 488838 486839 483840 481842
      478844 476846 475850 478850 480849 483848 487848 490847
      491846 493843
 1.50 471885 471883 471882 470880 469879 468878 468877 466876
      464876 463878 461880 460881 460883 461885 461886 462888
      463889 465890 466891 468891 469890 470890 471888 471885
      471885
 1.50 469826 469823 468823 467824 466824 465826 463826 463827
      464829 465829 467829 469827 469826
 1.50 319971 320965 319961 318958 314957 305966 298971 292973
      281981 275985 270990 264994 262996 261000 262005 266005
      271003 277997 284999 292998 300000 303001 304997 308992
      316979 319971
 2.00 314977 315972 315967 314962 312962 303970 292976 282983
      271990 263998 265001 268001 273997 275994 278993 284997
      293996 298994 305992 309988 314977
 3.00 308979 308971 305972 299975 295977 290980 286983 281987
      282991 284992 291993 297991 304990 307985 308979
 4.00 305983 304980 303977 301976 298977 295978 294979 292981
      290983 288985 287989 290991 293990 296989 299989 302987
      304985 305983
 5.00 301985 301983 302981 301979 299978 297979 295980 294981
      292983 291983 290985 289987 290989 291989 292989 293989
      295988 297987 299987 301986 301985
 6.00 299983 299982 299981 297980 295981 293982 293983 292984
      291985 290987 292988 293988 294987 295986 297986 298985
      299983 299983

$$





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