Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 062256
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
556 PM EST WED DEC 06 2017


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 07/0000 UTC THRU DEC 10/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

TX/SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~
A POSITIVELY TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWEST HAS ESTABLISHED A
CORRIDOR OF STRONG UPPER JET FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC ALOFT
AROUND BAJA THROUGH SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND ON DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
SOUTHEAST.  VERTICAL PROFILES WERE VERY MOIST IN THE MID LEVELS
AND SHOULD MOISTEN IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING,
THE SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESS, AND CONTINUED LARGE SCALE LIFT WITHIN A
ZONE OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.  PRECIPITATION MAY END UP
A BIT BANDED DUE TO FRONTOGENESIS THOUGH MODEL QPFS ARE NOT
SHOWING A PARTICULARLY STRONG BANDING SIGNAL.  PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FAIRLY CONTINUOUS OVER A BROAD ZONE.  AT HIGH ELEVATIONS
IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS, SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS ICE AND
SNOW...SEE THE DETAILED WPC HEAVY SNOW/ICING DISCUSSION (QPFHSD)
FOR MORE ON WINTRY WEATHER.  NUDGED WPC QPF CONTINUITY TOWARDS THE
RECENT AGREEABLE MODEL GUIDANCE.


GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT OF SYNOPTIC SNOW AS
SHORTWAVES PINWHEEL THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A GOOD ALONG-LAKE
FETCH SETS UP FOR ERIE AND ONTARIO...AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE VERY
COLD...BUT THE EVENT WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW...AND PW AMOUNTS VERY
LOW AT AROUND 0.25 INCHES. WPC QPF REMAINS AS HEAVY AS IS
REASONABLE...MAINTAINING GOOD CONTINUITY.



DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES REGION...

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THIS WEEKEND...
BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
LAKE-ENHANCED HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAVORED AREAS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. AT THE HEIGHT OF THE COLD
INTRUSION...700-MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -20C DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO. GIVEN LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS AS
7C...FAIRLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SET UP ACCOMPANIED BY
A STEADY PERIOD OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW... WITH THE BEST FOCUS
LINING UP DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THE FORECAST WAS
COMPRISED WITH CONTINUITY FROM THE 12Z ISSUANCE WITH TRENDS TOWARD
THE 12Z GFS/ECWMF.

...TX/GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S./MID-ATLANTIC...

WITHIN DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW STRETCHING DOWN TO THE GULF
COAST...A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY WHICH WILL SPAWN AN EXPANSIVE AXIS
OF ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WELL INTO THE GULF OF MX...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED
AND FORCED BY A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET SWEEPING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN U.S. AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 150 TO 160
KNOTS WILL RACE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON FRIDAY MORNING PLACING
THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRIME LOCATION FOR LONGER
DURATION RAIN/PERIODS OF HIGHER RAINFALL RATES AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITHIN A STREAM OF VERY MOIST AIRMASS... AN EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK IS IN EFFECT FOR DAY 3 FOR THIS REGION.

FOR SOUTH FLORIDA... GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WESTERN PENINSULA
RECEIVING A LOT OF QPF. THIS APPEARS TO FOCUS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MX THEREFORE
THE MARGINAL AREA ON DAY 3 WAS MAINTAINED AS RAINFALL RATES MAY BE
A BIT HEAVIER  THE QPF WAS DRIVEN MORE OR LESS A BLEND OF THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS.

ROTH/CAMPBELL


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 513788 513778 511768 509759 508746 504732 498721 490711
      486704 481702 477698 472696 468696 461698 452706 450709
      447711 442711 440713 441717 443724 444733 440737 438743
      434749 432744 430745 427748 428752 427757 425760 424766
      421778 415809 415817 416825 417832 421830 427798 431788
      438782 438777 439775 442768 448754 452726 452723 455720
      462718 464722 466722 470720 472721 476726 476731 475734
      468736 465740 463745 464752 466758 467763 468774 472778
      475776 484769 491767 494767 496768 499772 500778 500784
      500790 500796 503800 507805 510802 512794 513788
 0.01 485861 482857 479857 473848 464831 460823 460814 461807
      463798 465793 464787 459781 458772 457764 458759 456757
      454757 453762 452767 451770 449772 444781 439799 436801
      434806 431811 431818 435827 437837 438844 437849 434853
      431854 429852 425843 419839 418841 416846 416854 414860
      414863 416868 423869 431871 437871 441868 450866 454865
      457867 462876 462884 461890 460895 460902 463908 467908
      469903 471897 475895 478891 479886 479879 480874 480869
      482865 485861
 0.01 453103 454095 452092 449089 444088 440086 435085 435088
      438093 439096 442101 444104 449105 453103 453103
 0.01 451080 451078 450077 449075 448073 448072 447070 445069
      444067 443067 441069 441070 442072 443073 444075 444076
      446077 446078 447080 448080 449081 451081 451080
 0.01 451054 451049 450046 446041 443034 438031 435028 433018
      425020 422013 420005 416001 413003 411010 404014 395020
      393018 390017 388019 388023 395032 398032 400035 405040
      408045 411052 409055 405054 397054 395055 394060 391061
      391064 389067 388071 392072 394070 396073 399078 408074
      414073 415068 416066 417064 416061 417059 419058 421060
      425063 430059 435057 444058 447058 449056 451054
 0.01 433759 433756 431754 430757 430759 432761 433759
 0.01 406658 403651 401650 398649 395649 391649 383652 354671
      349674 345679 335689 329693 327696 326698 325712 325717
      324720 321725 320742 309775 309780 308782 308790 305794
      303795 301800 300806 302814 301818 299821 294825 236914
      233919 231925 232934 233938 233942 231952 232961 233971
      236979 241983 246984 251988 253998 255003 256012 257027
      258029 258034 256040 260054 257061 252061 249059 247057
      242058 239060 238065 274096 282098 288097 295094 300091
      304095 309101 313103 317103 326103 328100 327096 325091
      328088 332089 336095 338098 343094 344090 347089 349087
      353086 356081 360076 362072 367073 371073 373075 377075
      379070 378064 376060 379054 379049 378046 370045 363047
      358049 351050 342049 337046 333042 330038 328033 329028
      327021 326013 323006 319998 318994 317988 316979 317974
      318969 319959 320953 322936 328905 334874 340835 345823
      348816 351808 356797 360785 373760 377751 380744 384737
      386733 386729 386717 386709 392698 402673 406658
 0.01 395796 391792 388794 384797 379802 374806 371810 373815
      375815 378810 383807 387804 392799 395796
 0.01 399901 398895 396890 393885 393881 396867 397855 397851
      396851 392851 387863 384875 384888 388899 390906 392908
      398908 399901 399901
 0.01 354066 355063 354060 350058 345057 342057 339058 336060
      332062 330066 335067 339066 344067 348068 351068 354066
 0.01 278805 276799 277795 277791 272781 269777 264774 260776
      259781 259788 255794 248795 245797 244791 243788 244785
      248780 252778 255776 256774 256771 254769 250768 243767
      237765 229759 223759 219760 217762 217766 219772 224784
      229795 234807 235814 237815 238813 242809 245804 246807
      250808 254808 258808 260810 268809 275808 278805
 0.25 452806 452801 451797 449795 448799 447802 446805 444807
      442810 441813 442816 444817 447819 449819 451818 451814
      452809 452806
 0.25 444752 445749 445747 443745 441747 440748 439750 438752
      438753 437755 437757 437758 436760 437763 437765 438766
      440765 441762 442759 442758 443757 443754 444753 444752
 0.25 430783 427778 424783 422789 420797 419804 417811 419815
      422808 424803 426796 428790 430783
 0.25 370682 370677 369674 365671 360674 355678 352684 350689
      351697 355702 360699 363695 366689 369684 370682
 0.25 370743 370736 368729 365724 361722 357723 352728 344737
      339744 335754 331763 329772 325782 322792 310814 305822
      300829 294835 288841 286846 286849 288852 292849 296845
      301842 302844 303849 302855 299866 296870 292872 279883
      274884 272880 269882 267886 261896 258901 256907 256913
      258918 258924 256930 254935 254941 253943 248943 246946
      244950 239961 241967 244972 250974 255973 265976 269977
      272981 267003 264012 264019 265024 269037 270052 269058
      266062 261068 260074 263078 273083 275086 281086 286085
      290082 294079 299077 304073 307068 311061 315052 317046
      317039 314030 308008 306994 307979 310954 312941 314931
      316921 319908 325881 326872 326860 327848 329837 337818
      346795 355776 363760 368750 370743
 0.50 441757 440755 439756 438758 438760 439761 440760 441759
      441757
 0.50 428786 427784 426785 424786 424787 423789 423791 423792
      423794 423795 425794 426791 427788 428787 428786
 0.50 422801 422799 422798 421799 421801 422802 422801
 0.50 421806 421804 420803 420804 420806 421807 421806
 0.50 362747 361739 359736 356736 351738 348742 342752 337762
      333785 330790 325795 320803 314813 311822 318843 319836
      322831 329822 335813 339804 343792 347783 353771 356761
      360753 362747
 0.50 318881 319874 318866 317858 314862 305880 301884 294883
      290883 287885 283890 278897 275902 273908 269917 266923
      265931 265935 266937 272937 277936 281939 284950 285955
      284959 282966 279977 275989 273001 269015 273039 275051
      276058 276062 273064 269066 266070 266074 268076 272078
      278079 283077 287073 293070 297067 300063 301058 302051
      304044 307040 308033 307026 304015 301004 301997 301989
      303972 304957 303951 301945 301942 304937 307932 309924
      312913 314901 317890 318881
 0.50 270902 271900 270898 269898 267896 266898 265900 266902
      268902 269903 270902
 1.00 296023 296015 294010 293001 294993 296979 297975 297970
      294966 290970 288974 285981 283987 280999 276011 275015
      276020 277026 279032 281036 288038 292034 294028 296023
 1.00 290060 290058 290057 289056 288055 288056 288058 287060
      288061 290060 290060
 1.50 288018 287016 287015 287014 287012 287010 287008 286006
      286005 284004 283005 282007 281009 280012 280013 280014
      280016 280018 281019 283020 285020 287020 288018

24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 523741 521730 519718 514704 510694 508690 508684 505680
      502677 499677 496682 491692 488699 486704 485706 483704
      479696 475695 469695 452706 450710 448715 448719 449724
      456727 458732 459740 460746 462749 467750 470750 469754
      466763 460770 455777 453777 453773 454767 455762 454757
      452753 450748 446739 445737 442736 437738 432746 431758
      431765 428769 426772 421775 418782 416791 413804 413809
      413817 413822 413830 414837 416842 416844 419845 422847
      425848 427851 425854 422861 424865 427867 434871 440880
      440897 441902 444906 448908 448913 448918 448923 450928
      453930 459935 457940 456945 452955 452962 454962 459962
      463960 467958 472958 478957 482956 485957 490957 493960
      497962 504966 509965 512962 515957 516951 516946 515942
      513937 508931 504924 501919 500915 501910 500903 499898
      496895 490886 488883 486876 485874 485868 487862 489853
      490841 487832 486826 487820 495799 501781 506771 510768
      512767 514765 518761 520754 522749 523741
 0.01 230973 231988 231995 234001 237014 242028 247040 252051
      255058 258063 265072 271080 274085 280088 293091 301092
      306091 308089 312084 313076 310058 309051 309045 310030
      309017 304004 302998 301989 298975 299965 301958 306945
      311933 315920 324896 334870 336865 338858 343847 352837
      360826 366817 371804 375792 381778 391756 394748 397742
      404730 415709 419704 423697 430686 433682 434676 433662
      428657 423651 418646 416645 413646 400649 385654 375680
      370691 358698 352702 349708 342717 339722 334725 323732
      315740 312745 307751 304757 300760 297762 294762 287762
      280762 273765 267768 262774 259784 255789 249792 244794
      240798 239801 239805 243810 241822 233831 229834 227836
      227840 226847 229852 250861 255863 261867 259880 257893
      258903 257911 256919 254928 250933 246935 232947 231953
      231955 231957 231959 231961 231963 231965 230967
 0.01 442834 443829 441825 440822 437821 434821 430822 429824
      428829 428833 428838 428843 430845 434846 435844 438842
      440839 442837 442834
 0.01 412068 412061 411059 407056 403053 399051 399046 399042
      398037 397032 394032 391036 390041 389047 389050 386051
      386056 390058 392068 394071 399072 408071 412068
 0.01 374055 374053 374052 373050 372050 370049 369049 367049
      366050 366052 366054 366055 368055 370055 372055 374055
      374055
 0.01 272806 271803 269803 263803 259802 256805 252807 249809
      246810 247812 251814 255816 260813 264812 267810 271807
      272806
 0.25 475840 474838 473838 471840 470841 469842 469843 468846
      468848 468849 468851 468853 469856 470858 471858 472857
      473855 473853 474850 474848 474845 474843 474841 475840
 0.25 459803 459800 458798 456797 455798 454799 453799 452801
      451803 451804 450806 451809 452810 454810 455809 456808
      457806 457805 458803 459803
 0.25 446756 445754 443749 441748 438750 437753 436756 436761
      436763 436768 437770 439774 440772 442769 443765 444761
      445759 446756
 0.25 397707 391702 389699 382701 365713 358719 350726 341731
      331739 317750 310760 306768 304772 301773 299773 295770
      289769 283770 280773 276784 277793 277796 282796 286795
      291792 294788 299785 301786 302789 302797 300804 297809
      287823 273834 272849 269858 267870 263881 262887 261893
      261907 262918 263924 262929 261933 257937 248943 241948
      239951 236957 235964 235970 237975 241978 244982 245986
      243998 243004 245009 251017 259022 260027 258032 258040
      260045 264048 269047 275042 279032 282002 284993 286987
      287979 287972 284969 283964 285959 294941 299932 304923
      308913 311903 321883 338846 347828 352818 357808 364789
      373768 381750 390727 394716 397707
 0.50 440760 440757 439756 438758 438760 439762 440760
 0.50 380725 381719 379716 376714 371715 365719 358725 348734
      341741 334745 329749 324755 317759 315768 313774 312784
      312789 311794 306801 299813 295822 290827 287833 291841
      289850 284856 274865 267880 265887 264897 264907 268913
      270921 273929 274933 276937 278940 278946 276953 272951
      270947 265946 260947 252949 246951 240955 238959 237964
      240970 242973 246975 256975 262980 265981 269980 273976
      277969 280960 283952 290939 293930 295921 299916 302909
      307890 313875 317869 322862 329850 337836 345823 353807
      364775 367767 369760 372751 375742 378733 380725
 0.50 264007 264000 264996 260994 257995 253997 249000 248004
      250008 252011 256013 260012 263009 264007
 1.00 365746 362742 357745 354748 353756 349767 343778 336786
      333791 331798 325807 317816 308838 306843 306848 309848
      314847 319843 323840 326835 330831 333826 338815 341810
      343804 347792 352780 361758 365746
 1.00 299870 299868 299866 297867 295866 293867 293868 292870
      292871 294872 295874 296875 296874 297873 298872 299870
      299870

24HR QP VT 10/00Z
 0.01 468621 471625 470628 467637 464647 459655 458660 459665
      457672 453679 447686 436700 425715 407739 388771 372797
      353826 336850 330858 325864 321868 319873 315878 307890
      299902 276928 272933 266933 264932 262924 262915 262908
      260903 259892 261871 261867 258866 250864 237858 232857
      229854 226851 224847 223843 222837 221832 222828 221817
      220808 219799 220790 224781 225777 228774 235769 241763
      252755 258750 264745 276734 282729 289722 295716 300712
      309702 319693
 0.01 519274 514268 510266 509264 501263 494261 487260 482260
      480261 475265 470268 459275 447283 447285 451287 453290
      453295 455304 455314 459321 466324 480326 487326 493325
      500322
 0.01 504761 504755 502751 499743 493739 491738 487739 480741
      476746 471756 460766 457759 451760 448762 446758 447756
      445756 441759 438765 436773 434776 430778 425782 422784
      418785 406791 395796 383804 375814 372817 371820 370827
      371840 374847 372853 373865 375871 383880 392886 399888
      402896 403903 404906 408912 412915 417915 421915 423918
      428921 431923 435924 438933 439936 441940 445945 449949
      456949 463950 467952 475955 479956 481954 485947 488940
      488931 486924 484918 481909 480903 481896 480885 477863
      475859 472851 468836 470816 470810 471806 474798 477794
      482789 494784 499781 502774 504761
 0.01 256976 256966 251962 243961 239961 237963 235973 235983
      235988 233991 236998 241999 244997 247990 250983 254978
      256976
 0.25 434633 440642 447646 448649 448653 447658 445667 441675
      435682 427694 417710 407726 390752 379766 368780 350804
      344812 338818 325829 315842 305852 296867 291874 286881
      278884 276883 272879 275870 277865 278861 276857 268859
      256859 249856 236852 231850 228847 227844 226839 227793
      230786 233782 236782 243781 249778 258774 265769 278758
      291748 302740 316727 323721 330717 335715 338712 342706
      352695 365683 377670 388658 395652 401648 418638
 0.25 507301 509291 509286 505280 501277 496275 492275 487277
      484280 477286 473290 471294 466308 466313 467314 473317
      478317 483317 491315 499311 505303 507301
 0.25 455793 454791 451791 447794 442803 438807 435809 433811
      430811 426815 424821 422827 422832 424838 426844 429848
      427852 424855 418858 413866 413870 414873 419876 428876
      446867 446862 444860 440861 438862 436859 434854 435841
      437836 439839 442840 443837 444830 446824 446819 447812
      450806 452801 454796 455793
 0.50 504297 504292 502287 498287 493287 491289 489296 486300
      483304 483307 488310 491309 495307 498305 501302 503299
      504297
 0.50 435657 434650 431648 423647 420646 415646 408651 394659
      384668 379675 375681 369689 364694 354703 345712 341720
      336725 327731 322735 310742 299750 288762 274770 254786
      245790 235791 232793 230797 230805 230814 232820 231827
      228835 228843 230847 233849 241851 248853 254856 261855
      268852 272846 277838 281833 297826 302827 308829 313827
      318823 329811 339799 350789 358781 380757 388745 395733
      412704 427681 430675 433668 435657
 1.00 422663 421658 418660 412664 405669 399672 395674 392674
      387677 379689 372702 367707 361712 342726 330736 324741
      319746 313756 306765 300771 295773 292771 288772 282775
      274782 266792 260797 255801 252808 251816 244824 237834
      232839 233844 236845 249849 254851 258851 261849 265845
      269841 271833 274826 279821 285818 290816 295811 299806
      301801 306795 310790 321780 331772 340766 367752 371746
      376742 381731 389718 396705 403694 410683 417672 422663
 1.00 277805 276803 274802 272802 270802 268803 267804 265806
      264809 265810 266810 267811 269811 271810 273810 275809
      276807 277805
 1.50 371718 369715 366716 362719 355724 343728 335734 327742
      321749 309765 297781 295786 294788 296789 305784 320773
      328764 333758 350746 356737 362730 368723 371718
 1.50 289803 290801 288800 287800 286802 285803 285804 284806
      285807 287806 289804 289803
 1.50 285787 284785 283783 281783 279783 279784 278785 276786
      275789 274789 274791 273793 275793 277793 278792 280791
      282790 283790 284789 285787
 1.50 254842 254840 253838 252836 251835 251834 250832 250830
      249829 249828 247828 246829 245831 245833 245835 245837
      246839 248840 248841 250841 251842 252843 254843 254842
 2.00 362724 360725 362725 362724
 2.00 360727 344731 337735 333739 323751 314762 307774 305779
      312776 322767 331756 343747 348742 353737 360727

$$





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