Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 261809
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
108 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 27/0000 UTC THRU NOV 28/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...WESTERN U.S....

VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S.
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A PARADE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECT INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC OCEAN. ONE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION....WHILE A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND IN BEHIND THE LEAD IMPULSE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INCLUDING THE ROCKIES. SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA COASTAL RANGES AND THE SIERRA-NEVADA WHERE PERSISTENT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL LEAD TO
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TOTALS. WATER EQUIVALENTS HERE OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. FARTHER INLAND
ACROSS FAVORED WEST AND SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM...THE WASATCH AND ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TOTALS TO BE ENHANCED AS THE HEIGHT FALLS BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. BY LATE SUNDAY...THERE WILL ALSO BE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND THIS WILL BRING A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS
INTO THE COASTAL RANGES. GENERALLY FAVORED A SLIGHTLY WETTER
VERSION OF A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE FOR QPF. PLEASE ALSO CONSULT THE
LATEST QPFHSD FOR MORE DETAILS FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION.


...PLAINS/MIDWEST...

THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS MOVING OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY
LATE SUNDAY WILL GENERATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WHICH SHOULD DEEPEN UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
A CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
GIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO DEVELOP AND
OVERSPREAD ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
MS VALLEY. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KTS...WITH
PWATS SURGING TO NEAR OR A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH ALONG A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD ALONG THIS COLD FRONT.


...EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...

WELL DEFINED HEIGHT FALLS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY WILL DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH
MORE SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TO EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE...AN EXTENSION OF MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE
FOCUSED BACK WEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WHERE SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING WILL BE SLOWLY
AMPLIFYING. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HEIGHT FALLS WILL HELP
FOCUS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WITH A RATHER WELL-DEFINED AXIS
OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.  SURFACE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD FOCUS AN
AXIS OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FOR AREAS OF
NORTHERN MAINE. WPC QPF LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF. PLEASE AGAIN CONSULT THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL
WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.


...LOWER GREAT LAKES...

SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST PA AND WESTERN NY WITH THE PREVAILING
COLD CYCLONIC LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
THIS WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY LATE SUNDAY.


...FAR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/KEYS...

PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH SOME RELATIVELY MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOSTER SOME SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND INTO THE KEYS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 477618 479623 478628 475636 469644 466647 461649 451653
      448656 443658 433660 429659 427655 425649 425645 431638
      441633 449629 452627
 0.01 535215 536203 536196 536190 535187 531179 527169 522165
      518159 499148 496148 493145 491141 489136 486133 480130
      476130 470133 470138 471141 476141 482142 483149 481151
      479149 469147 465143 460142 458143 456142 452145 446145
      441142 442131 443127 445125 449119 454115 454112 452109
      452106 454105 455102 455098 451094 442089 441085 442081
      446078 450078 446072 443070 438069 432069 429065 428061
      425058 420055 415050 412050 400052 387049 383050 379047
      374045 370042 366040 363036 363026 363022 365019 371015
      377013 380013 383015 386013 388011 389007 390998 394998
      395005 395021 395023 398023 403022 407024 409021 415018
      418013 424010 430012 443010 449011 454013 462008 465003
      466995 467990 466985 466975 464969 459957 451945 447940
      443936 437928 431920 426909 425902 422896 417894 415895
      404900 391905 385908 381911 377924 373932 364938 354943
      350945 346949 342953 339956 333960 327964 316969 306973
      302975 299979 295985 295991 295994 293993 288995 284998
      282999 280003 278005 276003 264996 257988 255983 255978
      272977 272972 266970 257968 232962 231980 239981 244988
      245995 249998 255001 258006 261012 263015 278020 282021
      287020 289016 306011 299998 298995 302994 306992 311990
      316989 322989 326987 330987 334989 338990 338993 335997
      334003 336006 340009 342014 343018 342023 341025 345033
      344036 345038 349044 350049 349052 346054 341054 336055
      328055 327058 328060 332060 338063 340065 340067 338071
      329080 329093 328103 328105 331107 334109 334113 335118
      335123 334133 337138 342150 345154 350157 356160 361166
      366167 368169 369174 366174 354177 350179 347175 345168
      343165 340162 324159 316158 312163 313167 317171 331195
      332201 334205 341217 350226
 0.01 350226 358233 365238 378249 398256 404258 408258 416258
      434259 442256 450256 456257 460260 466265 479278 486285
      493290 498292 502292 506293 509291 514285 518277 520271
      522264 521257 519252 515245 512241 511236 512231 511225
      512221 515221 520221 526224 529224 531222 534217 535215
 0.01 504694 503686 500680 495674 491667 488665 485664 476662
      468663 450668 445670 439671 429674 411679 402683 397686
      396690 395694 396699 401705 406703 410701 418702 425703
      432701 437699 440698 442700 443703 440704 436709 433712
      435715 437719 440721 444720 446723 443727 439727 436727
      432728 427729 423732 425734 430733 435733 439733 441736
      445735 449736 454735 455732 458732 461733 466729 468724
      471721 475712 478708 482706 486705 491705 498704 504694
 0.01 484232 485230 483228 482229 481230 481231 481232 483233
      484232
 0.01 473199 474191 471188 470185 472182 471178 467179 464184
      461185 459190 458194 458197 460202 465203 467203 468200
      472200 473199
 0.01 462824 462819 460816 457810 455802 453798 451796 447797
      443797 441794 436782 436777 435771 436767 438765 437756
      435758 430755 426750 422749 420754 421759 423762 424765
      425769 423775 418777 415779 414782 407784 403788 405792
      411794 414799 415807 416811 417811 419813 421812 423804
      426800 428793 429790 432789 435796 437802 434804 434806
      434811 436815 440818 444822 448824 457830 460827 462824
 0.01 450746 449741 447739 445739 442740 441742 439745 439748
      440750 442752 444752 445747 447749 448748 450746
 0.01 445177 442169 437163 435160 435155 435148 437142 435138
      433134 431133 429135 427138 429142 427153 428159 432161
      435167 436171 439175 440178 443179 445177
 0.01 437090 437088 435088 433088 433087 432085 430085 428083
      427082 426084 426085 428086 429087 430088 431089 432090
      433091 435092 436092 437090
 0.01 417144 417142 416140 416139 415137 413134 412132 410132
      408132 407133 406133 405135 405137 404139 405142 407144
      409145 410145 411145 412147 414147 415146 416146 417144
 0.01 421100 421098 421095 421093 421091 419093 417093 415092
      414093 412094 411096 411098 412099 412101 413102 415103
      416104 418103 419102 420101 421100
 0.01 280807 280801 278799 273797 276791 276786 270783 263784
      258785 256786 249788 239795 235801 235808 235814 237820
      241819 243817 246813 256805 263802 266800 268803 280807
      280807
 0.25 527201 528193 526188 524182 520178 515175 510175 505176
      503175 501173 497169 493167 487165 482166 483172 488174
      498178 501183 505187 512194 520202 525204 527201
 0.25 512276 514270 515265 513260 511257 508250 506252 506258
      505263 502262 502259 498255 496249 492242 490239 486237
      480237 476232 472232 469231 469226 474222 479221 485222
      489224 492227 495232 498234 500232 499224 497216 494212
      488210 484207 480207 474209 469212 463213 458215 453215
      447217 440217 435218 428215 423219 420223 413214 409213
      404210 400205 398202 393200 383191 372184 368182 361181
      354181 348185 346188 346193 347200 359221 381237 390244
      397247 405249 413251 421252 433251 443247 453245 460243
      468243 475247 480250 485255 489260 494270 499276 505281
      510280 512276
 0.25 490685 488680 485679 480678 474676 469676 455676 441677
      434677 427679 421683 419685 419690 424694 430695 445693
      451694 456696 459697 463696 469694 473695 476695 481692
      490685
 0.25 470625 470623 469622 467622 466622 464623 462624 461625
      460626 459627 458629 457632 459634 461634 462634 464633
      464632 465631 467630 468628 470627 470625
 0.25 481165 479164 478164 478165 479167 481165
 0.25 461180 461176 461175 458177 457179 455181 452183 450183
      447184 448187 451189 453188 455186 457184 459182 461180
 0.25 445109 441099 438098 436099 432102 429104 423105 423109
      421112 419113 412112 410110 410108 409102 408099 406099
      405106 402109 399108 396111 379118 372125 372131 373136
      374139 376139 378135 381131 384129 392122 401121 407122
      413123 417125 422124 425118 428118 432119 434116 438113
      443114 445109
 0.25 444976 443970 442965 438958 433950 428945 416935 402940
      398942 396945 392952 390957 390963 392966 395969 402964
      406964 409968 407975 405979 404983 404989 407993 412992
      414991 419990 426987 430986 433983 438984 441982 444976
 0.25 402226 402223 400222 397219 394216 389215 384213 380214
      378216 378219 380223 385224 391226 394226 400226 402226
 0.25 410075 410069 409067 401066 397065 395063 387062 383061
      381058 377054 370052 365053 358054 356057 357062 356067
      358069 363073 370085 373091 376097 378098 380096 381093
      385093 393087 397087 399085 400082 402081 405078 408078
      410075
 0.25 362206 362202 361199 359197 357195 356193 352192 350195
      351199 353201 354204 355207 357208 359207 362206
 0.25 358136 358130 356127 360124 359118 357115 353113 347108
      343100 341095 339094 336095 339100 341104 341110 342113
      348120 355126 355130 352134 352138 357138 358136
 0.25 344184 344175 343169 341166 338166 332164 325162 321162
      320164 321168 326172 329175 334179 338183 341185 344184
 0.25 232975 233975 235975 237975 239975 241975 242975 244975
      246975 248974 246972 246971 244971 243971 241970 239970
      237970 235970 233970 232969
 0.50 483217 483214 482213 481211 479211 477211 476211 475212
      474213 473214 472216 473218 475217 476217 478217 480217
      482217 483217
 0.50 454683 450681 445680 438681 433681 426683 423687 425691
      431692 438690 443688 448688 451687 454685 454683
 0.50 450225 449221 444220 439223 427220 425221 423224 427231
      428233 424233 419230 416230 413228 413221 413218 407215
      402210 397204 390200 381192 374187 368183 360182 353184
      353187 356189 363193 371202 397217 405220 406224 406229
      400232 396236 394238 396241 404245 419248 427248 433245
      435243 435240 433237 434233 436230 438228 442227 448227
      450225
 0.50 417118 417117 415116 415115 413115 412117 413119 415119
      417119 417118
 0.50 408117 407114 407113 405112 403113 402113 402116 403116
      404117 406117 408117
 0.50 401074 400071 399071 396072 394071 392067 389066 387068
      386072 387076 388078 390081 393080 395078 397077 400076
      401074
 0.50 381083 382076 380072 378068 375064 371062 369062 366063
      367068 370073 371077 372082 375085 380085 381083
 0.50 364218 363217 362215 360215 361217 363218 364218
 0.50 354120 354119 354117 353115 352115 351113 350112 349112
      348110 347110 346109 344108 344109 344111 345114 347116
      349118 350119 352120 354120 354120
 0.50 342177 343173 342171 340168 337167 334166 330165 327164
      326167 328170 330171 333172 335171 337172 340175 341177
      342177
 1.00 424241 423239 422238 421238 419236 418235 416235 414234
      413234 411234 409233 407234 406236 407238 408239 409239
      410239 412240 413240 415241 417241 419242 420242 422241
      424241
 1.00 400213 395207 389201 381195 374189 367185 362184 359185
      359188 363191 370196 376201 385207 393211 397213 400213
 1.00 378076 378075 376075 376076 377077 378076
 1.50 392207 389203 383200 379196 374192 369188 364186 367192
      372195 377199 382203 386206 390207 392207

$$





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