Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 151903
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
202 PM EST WED FEB 15 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 16/0000 UTC THRU FEB 17/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND

THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WILL INDUCE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
DEEPENING LOW PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF NOVA
SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AND ACROSS PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY.  AN AXIS OF STRONG LIFT EXPECTED
ALONG THE SURFACE TROF AXIS BETWEEN THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW AND
THE INITIAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PARENT LOW MOVING FROM
THE QB/ONTARIO BORDER---ACROSS NORTHERN NY STATE AND INTO CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND.  MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE BEEN TO
NARROW THE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP/HEAVY SNOW AXIS--WITH
CONSENSUS NOW FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS FROM SOUTHERN MAINE
INTO MOST OF NH AND NORTHERN VT.   SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

GREAT LAKES

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACTIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH THIS PERIOD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPREADS EASTWARD.  THE MOST
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE OFF OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO THIS PERIOD---WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWS IN THE FAVORED
AREAS FROM NORTHWEST PA---WESTERN NY IN THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE AND
INTO THE TUG HILL REGION TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

PRECIPITATION INITIALLY CONCENTRATING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS NORTHEAST PACIFIC
HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO SWEEP EASTWARD AND LOWER HEIGHTS FROM
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHWEST.  AN AXIS OF
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES---2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN---INITIALLY FOCUSED INTO THE NORTHWEST WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME IN THE AXIS OF STRONGEST SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THE ANOMALOUS PW VALUES AND
CORRESPONDING ANOMALOUS 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX VALUES WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO THE WEST OF THE CASCADES---SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST RANGE AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL SIERRA.
WITH THE VERY GOOD MODEL QPF DISTRIBUTION AGREEMENT TYPICALLY
EVIDENT IN BIG WEST COAST PRECIP EVENTS---CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THIS PERIOD FOR THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP POTENTIAL.  HIGH SNOW
LEVELS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP IN THE LIQUID
STATE---EXACERBATING ONGOING RUNOFF ISSUES.

INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/FAR NORTHERN ROCKIES--- MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS FROM THE SAWTOOTH/SALMON RIVER/BITTERROOTS OF ID--BLUES OF
NORTHEAST OREGON---FAR NORTHEAST WASHINGTON STATE AND THE ROCKIES
OF NORTHWEST MT.  HIGH SNOW LEVELS HERE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE
PRECIP IN THE LIQUID STATE---EXACERBATING ONGOING RUNOFF ISSUES.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 17/00Z
 0.01 493611 498622 502631 504635 506643 508656 503678 502684
      499687 495693 480702 479710 477722 474731 472735 472741
      469752 466757 464760 462763 457764 447766 444769 442775
      439785 433792 428795 426798 423801 421805 419809 416810
      410805 406806 404804 403801 401800 397803 392805 388807
      385809 381810 375815 371815 374810 379803 383796 387792
      390791 407782 415778 417769 420758 420746 423744 428742
      431743 434742 435740 435735 432735 422737 420735 419729
      422726 423723 420721 420715 415706 413702 410701 399702
      395701 389703 384704 381704 379707 358734 316787 306789
      300790 297792 293795 288796 284796 280794 276786 280779
      288764 304733 312719 316710 320703 330687 379651 383650
      385650 388651 392650 395649 399648 402647 406646 408647
      411646 415645 418644 421643 425642 428640 429637 430634
 0.01 539210 540197 538186 538179 535174 529167 505142 499136
      492131 485125 475123 471124 469128 471137 468140 463140
      456144 453145 448144 446141 444136 446123 446118 444113
      441110 438110 437111 433113 431116 426123 425136 426140
      425147 426152 428156 429159 428162 425165 419171 416174
      415177 419178 423177 428175 429179 428182 426187 423190
      418189 414190 412192 409197 405199 400198 392193 384187
      376183 368179 359179 355180 352182 346187 339193 336196
      334200 330212 325220 322230 321239 323248 325251 330252
      339250 343249 348251 351253 350257 349264 358267 377273
      384271 393272 403271 411270 419269 426267 435265 443265
      446265 451266 461268 472273 480278 487283 498289 506289
      510289 512284 521268 525258 524252 523246 519238 516228
      515221 516217 517215 522217 525220 529224 532225 534223
      539210
 0.01 472870 472859 469853 467851 464851 461849 458849 446845
      444846 442850 441858 438861 433861 427860 420858 419858
      419863 419865 422864 426862 429864 443863 449861 453861
      455864 459869 464873 467880 468880 469876 472870
 0.01 452828 451823 450821 447816 442812 438810 431810 429812
      430817 432822 436825 441830 445832 448833 452828
 0.01 229013 230015 234016 238015 242019 245024 247030 247038
      243044 241045 238043 234041 229041 226047 226054 228059
      231064 240070 245073 248077 259084 270087 276088 281086
      283084 280078 278071 275067 268058 261051 257047 255040
      257034 258027 260021 258014 258010 256007 253004 247004
      242005 230007
 0.01 262794 260774 258772 252773 244776 238781 233788 228805
      225813 223823 222833 223839 222844 223855 225857 229855
      232854 236852 241845 250830 250826 251820 253810 256803
      261797 262794
 0.25 484615 489620 493626 497634 500642 501646 501652 500660
      498668 494675 489678 487676 485672 480670 471671 458679
      453683 450689 448698 450706 450711 452715 457719 458722
      458726 455729 450730 443730 436730 428732 427729 430728
      435727 435724 433722 423712 420704 418695 418686 420678
      425664 428658 434652 444642 449638 452634 459624
 0.25 533206 534200 533192 529183 524173 518166 511160 502154
      494149 491147 489149 486152 482153 477152 474150 469147
      464145 462150 462154 460158 455158 449151 443144 439139
      435141 434147 434155 440161 442165 444172 446176 442178
      440183 440191 443194 446197 450198 454196 456190 460188
      466184 469187 469193 466199 462201 459203 457209 453212
      448213 444213 440212 435211 431207 425202 421202 417206
      413207 408206 399202 390197 381192 372187 368185 363186
      365191 363192 360194 362199 369205 373208 372211 367211
      362211 361206 356203 350198 347197 345198 343202 339212
      341215 342220 345223 347228 349234 352238 362242 374256
      377259 382261 392261 401261 410261 428258 444256 453256
      464258 473261 482266 497281 500283 504284 508283 510279
      516268 518264 520255 518244 514233 512228 510222 504213
      503208 504203 507200 511202 519208 526212 528212 531210
      533206
 0.25 500253 499250 499249 498247 498246 497244 497243 496241
      495240 494238 493236 492237 492238 493240 494241 495244
      496247 498249 498250 499251 500253 500253
 0.25 486233 488231 487228 485227 484226 482225 480226 481229
      481230 482232 482234 482235 484235 486233 486233
 0.25 449748 449744 448742 444745 441748 437751 433754 430756
      429762 431767 435768 438766 441762 443759 446755 448751
      449748
 0.25 425791 424791 423791 422792 421793 421794 420796 419797
      418799 417802 418804 419804 420802 421801 422799 423796
      424794 425791 425791
 0.25 369689 370685 369682 364681 358682 354684 346691 338697
      323710 317719 313730 311739 309751 310763 313766 318765
      324758 330750 342733 353715 364698 369689
 0.25 244799 244794 242792 237798 235804 233812 231818 229826
      231832 234830 235826 238820 240813 243805 244799
 0.50 528204 530198 529194 525185 521176 514171 509167 504164
      499163 485157 477155 471150 469150 465153 464159 465163
      466169 470172 472174 474179 477186 479195 478201 475204
      470208 465208 460207 455213 448215 440215 436215 432213
      427208 425205 423207 425211 424215 419223 416214 388198
      381194 377191 375192 375196 378201 379205 378206 377215
      372214 369215 367216 364215 361213 358210 357207 351202
      348201 346202 344205 352210 354213 355217 357221 358226
      362231 369237 371240 371245 376250 383253 391255 401258
      416257 431255 445252 452252 461253 469254 477257 484263
      489269 500280 505282 507280 511270 515264 517259 517252
      513234 509225 505218 501210 496203 494198 494195 499191
      508191 512193 514195 522205 525206 528204
 0.50 502257 499248 497242 493234 490226 487224 483222 479223
      479227 481234 483237 486236 490237 492240 496248 500255
      502257
 0.50 496660 496655 495650 491643 490637 487630 482628 480626
      476625 467631 457637 448646 440655 434666 428676 425681
      423688 422696 424701 430714 433718 438721 444720 445719
      446715 443708 443700 444692 446688 452676 456672 461668
      472663 476658 480656 483656 486659 490664 492665 495663
      496660
 0.50 465176 462173 458172 455169 454164 451158 448154 442146
      438142 436148 437154 441157 444162 445167 447172 451177
      451180 450182 448186 451187 453186 457184 461181 464177
      465176
 0.50 358696 356694 352696 347699 337706 327713 321722 318729
      318735 320743 322745 326743 333734 340725 346716 353706
      358696
 1.00 515256 512242 511236 507230 502217 499213 496211 493210
      486209 481210 477212 477215 480217 491223 496236 502246
      508259 511263 512263 514258 515256
 1.00 505276 505271 504265 498256 489239 482240 480235 478230
      474230 471232 466233 461232 443234 438232 441227 442224
      439222 431219 427222 428229 425232 422232 415229 415224
      416217 414215 412215 407213 403209 394204 386200 388208
      389213 392218 397219 400223 398225 393225 389225 385228
      382232 380238 380245 384248 396250 401253 406254 415253
      424252 433249 441246 450245 459244 469246 478251 482254
      486259 498273 503278 505276
 1.00 515182 515179 514179 513177 512176 512175 510174 509173
      507173 506174 505176 505179 506181 508182 508183 509183
      511184 512184 513184 514184 515182
 1.00 494176 495171 493168 489165 483162 476161 472156 470155
      469157 473163 477167 480171 484176 490178 494176
 1.00 464224 465221 465219 464217 464216 463215 461215 460215
      458216 457217 456218 455218 454220 453221 455222 457223
      458224 458225 460226 461226 462226 463224 464224
 1.00 459652 458649 456650 452654 448660 444665 440670 438675
      439680 441680 446676 449671 451665 454660 458654 459652
 1.00 438712 435708 433703 433698 434692 435686 430687 428690
      430697 430699 431705 433711 435713 438712
 1.00 375225 376223 375222 374220 373220 372218 370218 370219
      369222 370222 370224 371225 372226 374226 375225
 1.50 512258 512252 511247 508235 504228 500217 497214 493215
      486212 485215 488219 491219 493223 496233 500241 505250
      509259 512258
 1.50 503275 504270 503267 499261 496256 494251 491245 487240
      484245 485251 488257 492263 495267 499273 503275
 1.50 480244 480241 480239 480236 479234 479233 478231 476231
      475231 474232 472234 471236 471238 472240 472241 473242
      474243 476244 478245 479245 480244
 1.50 431246 432240 430238 422234 415231 413228 414222 413217
      408216 402212 397207 393206 392208 392212 394215 401219
      404219 406221 404230 400229 396229 390230 387232 385236
      385240 386242 395246 398248 401251 405252 409251 415250
      423250 429248 431246
 2.00 510254 508246 507240 504234 502228 500220 498218 495217
      494220 494225 495231 499237 502241 506247 508253 510254
 2.00 503273 502267 500264 498260 495255 493251 491247 488243
      487245 487249 488253 491258 493261 495265 498269 501273
      503273
 2.00 478241 479238 479237 479236 478233 477233 476232 475232
      474233 473234 473236 473238 474239 475240 476241 478241
      478241
 2.00 429243 429241 427238 421236 412231 413221 410220 409222
      409228 410233 406234 401232 397231 392234 393239 397243
      399244 400248 403249 408249 418248 427247 429243
 2.00 401216 400214 399213 398212 397210 395210 396212 396213
      398215 399216 401216 401216
 3.00 500235 500233 500232 499229 498226 497226 496224 495226
      496226 496228 497230 497231 498232 499235 500235
 3.00 427242 426241 424239 423238 421237 419236 418236 416235
      414235 413236 412237 412238 411240 412241 413243 415244
      416244 418244 420244 422244 424244 425244 425243 427242
 3.00 408244 409242 408240 408239 407238 405236 403236 402236
      400236 398236 400238 400239 401240 402242 402244 404245
      406244 407244 408244
 4.00 423241 422241 421239 419238 417238 416239 417240 419241
      420241 422241 423241

$$





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