Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 201901
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 21/0000 UTC THRU JUN 22/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...CNTL/ERN GULF COAST...
HEAVY TO LIKELY EXCESSIVE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND
WEST OF UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM CINDY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
GRADUALLY NWWD FROM THE CNTL GULF THROUGH WED. CINDY IS QUITE
ASYMMETRICAL GIVEN THE SLY SHEAR TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LOW TO
ITS WEST..WITH INCREASING CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  MODELS GENL AGREE ON BRINGING DEEP
SURGE OF TROPICAL MSTR NWD INTO THE CNTL GULF COAST AREA
ESPECIALLY FROM SE LA EWD INTO SRN MS/SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE
REGION THIS PD WITH PWS INCREASING TO OVER 2.5". THE DEEPER MEAN
LAYERED ESELY FLOW`S NWD PROGRESSION WILL LIMITED BY WEAK E/W
RIDGING AT 5H EXTENDING ACRS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY
HELP MAINTAIN THE MORE ACTIVE TROPICAL RAIN BANDS ACRS SE LA INTO
SRN MS/SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED LATEST
NHC TRACK OF CINDY. THIS WILL GIVE THE POTENTIAL THERE FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE DAY 1 PD OF 4 TO 6+". MANUAL
QPF WAS BASED ON BEST MODEL FIT TO LATEST NHC TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL INFLOW INTO THE CNTL
GULF COAST. THIS WAS DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF WPC CONTINUITY AND
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE 12 UTC ARW. THE ARW FITS WELL WITH LATEST
NHC TRENDS AND ALSO CLUSTERS REASONABLY WELL WITH THE 12 UTC NSSL
WRF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 12 UTC GFS/UKMET. SRN REGION
COORDINATION HAS ALSO LED TO AN INCREASE OF THE WPC DAY1 AND DAY2
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT AREA PREVIOUSLY RELEASED TO HIGH RISK
AREAS.


...SE U.S NEWD INTO ERN NC...
LITTLE CHANGE HEAR FROM THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST EXCEPT FOR A BIT
MORE ARW DETAIL AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. DEEP LAYERED
TROPICAL MSTR CIRCULATING NWD/NEWD BETWEEN CINDY OVER THE CNTL
GULF OF MEX AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC INTERACTING WITH
STALLING AND WEAKENING FRONT FROM THE CAROLINAS SWWD INTO MS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME INTENSE AND VERY SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINS THIS
PD ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BNDRY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW IMPRESSIVE
DEEP LAYERED MSTR PERSISTING AND WHILE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
HEATING SOME...MODELS FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME TALL SKINNY
CAPES DURING THE AFTN/EVENING ACRS THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH
DIFFLUENT RT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET AND GENERAL DEEP LAYERED
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...POTNL WILL EXIST FOR SLOW MOVING/TRAINING
CONVECTION.   CONTINUED TO OVERALL FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF HI RES
GUIDANCE AND GENLY STAYED TOWARD THE HIER END OF MODEL QPF
GUIDANCE AREAL AVG WISE GIVEN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS AS CLEARLY
INDICATED FROM THE GULF OF MEX INTO THE REGION ON LATEST BLENDED
TPW LOOPS.

...NERN US...

EXITING VORT ENERGIES ROTATING THROUGH BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE
GT LAKES REGION WILL LEAK TO DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM THE ERN GT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME LINGERING .1-.25
INCH RAIN TOTALS WILL BE PSBL WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS/TSTMS...THOUGH IN GENERAL MOST AREAL AVG AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

...W-CENTRAL US...

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGIES DIGGING SEWD FROM SWRN CANADA INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS ALONG WITH SOME FAVORABLE EMERGING
SUPPORT ALOFT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME NEW
LIGHT ACTIVITY WITH A MODEL CONCENSUS.



SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 22/00Z
 0.01 514290 513287 512284 510281 509278 508275 507272 507266
      507264 508262 511260 513259 515257 517257 520256 522256
      525256
 0.01 554141 552143 548148 545150 543154 541157 539162 536166
      534171 533176 531181 528185 529188 531189 536190 539194
      542197 538213 533217 527217 522216 519208 516188 508188
      504187 501184 497177 494170 495165 497162 497156 494154
      490155 487154 485142 486128 488111 488100 489096 491094
      493091 496092 501093 502096 505103 509114 510118 511118
      512115 513103 514098 516090 517084 516077 514065 509056
      503052 499052 500057 495077 490075 486073 484070 480070
      477072 474074 473077 471088 469094 468100 466105 464104
      461101 460097 459092 457089 454086 451085 447082 442082
      434076 431074 429070 428067 428063 430056 432052 436052
      439055 443058 449063 453058 457051 460047 462046 468046
      476051 481056 490056 494053 496052 495049 477047 471043
      463039 458038 455039 450039 446041 442041 441040 441034
      440028 440020 439017 437017 435019 429014 425008 422004
      418004 410007 398021 393027 391030 391034 394039 396046
      399050 402051 408055 411059 412064 410068 408070 405070
      399072 392070 389066 389060 387057 382056 379055 375053
      369053 363052 361050 358049 352049 348051 343057 341061
      342066 344075 343085 339095 334099 323106 317110 313107
      307103 305100 303095 304091 306089 315089 319088 322085
      326076 327069 326066 323059 320055 321052 325044 330037
      334031 353015 369987 375981 378979 384979 388980 391982
      391985 393987 396986 404982 410977 421968 426963 429962
      428959 424942 424923 428916 434911 440909 443911 445916
      451923 454925 458925 462922 468922 479922 482919 483913
      483907 485902 494908 498908 500906 507905 511905 514907
      518913 528925 547951 552960 556969 558975 560980 563984
      564988 567999 567007 568013
 0.01 504626 503631 505636 506640 505646 504649 503655 502661
      502668 504673 507677 510680 513681 518679 520676 521674
 0.01 501642 501637 499633 496631 493630 484632 481632 478634
      468639 462645 451663 447669 444673 443677 441687 440697
      441702 440706 437711 432713 429712 428710 426705 423706
      420704 419706 415708 414710 412714 411719 408723 409728
      408733 405738 401746 399750 398754 396767 395780 396785
      394789 395801 395808 397815 395821 396826 396832 398837
      400839 400843 398847 393869 391879 387886 385890 384895
      383900 383907 387915 395919 398915 399911 402901 414867
      416862 417857 419844 421834 421830 422827 422824 425822
      432824 434826 438823 441822 445818 449811 451799 452784
      451771 451763 454759 466757 466772 464782 462793 460802
      460811 461815 462817 468824 475820 480815 483814 486809
      491802 499781 498765 498752 496727 496714 495707 492704
      490701 491696 495686 499677 501671 501666 498664 498658
      499652 501642
 0.01 418159 418156 416156 416158 418159 418159
 0.01 413157 414148 412143 411141 407140 403144 402151 400157
      397164 395165 394170 394174 396175 400174 404170 408166
      411159 413157
 0.01 420041 421039 421036 419034 417034 416034 414036 412038
      412040 412043 411045 413045 415045 417043 419043 420041
      420041
 0.01 396682 395676 392675 391674 388678 383685 378692 371700
      363707 357713 350719 345723 338728 332734 327742 317756
      312764 304771 295773 289774 287776 282777 279780 271785
      267787 261788 258792 253795 248796 245799 246805 245811
      241811 238810 236812 237815 242822 241826 241833 242839
      241842 238843 234848 237852 241854 245856 248859 253863
      258869 259873 259877 259890 258903 259912 258923 254933
      244943 241947 240950 239955 239961 241964 245966 248970
      253971 258973 263973 274970 279967 289967 298964 306961
      313956 319951 325941 329932 338920 343914 346904 346890
      348880 352870 352862 353857 353846 354836 355830 354827
      356817 357811 359807 362797 366789 370777 371774 375772
      376770 376764 378753 381744 385734 389722 393704 393697
      393691 396682
 0.01 385196 384195 383193 383192 381192 380195 381195 382197
      384196 385196
 0.01 381047 381044 381042 381040 380038 378035 377035 375033
      373033 372035 371035 370037 370039 371041 373043 373044
      374046 376048 377050 379049 381047
 0.25 522264 521264 520264 519265 518266 517268 516269 516270
      515272 515275 517278
 0.25 562089 559068 554047 552038 550029 548023 548016 544019
      543016 544012 548012 549007 550003 550996 548991 545987
      541984 539980 539974 539970 538968 534965 533960 532954
      530951 526950 523952 520953 515952 512955 509959 507966
      505978 505989 505993 505001 508007 513011 518019 522028
      532064 534073 535077 534083 533089 533094 534107 535116
      538120 540121 545119 548116 551112 554105 560099
 0.25 538134 537131 536131 536134 536136 536139 536140 536139
      538137 538136 538134
 0.25 383708 383704 381701 377701 374704 362713 356720 350725
      345730 340738 325762 316777 312784 312790 314794 320797
      321799 320802 314807 310812 303817 299819 293819 285821
      281819 279815 270807 267806 264807 261810 260812 262815
      268820 277823 267833 263838 258842 254848 254853 255856
      261862 262865 263870 263892 263902 264911 263922 261929
      258937 255945 255951 258955 260958 264960 271960 278959
      282958 287958 294955 301951 306945 316932 317925 319916
      323910 329905 333898 334888 335863 338849 341841 344832
      345822 347815 350805 354797 359792 362786 366769 368759
      370752 377734 381722 383714 383708
 0.25 381997 382995 380992 378991 377992 377994 378997 380998
      381997
 0.25 370010 369009 367009 366010 367011 369011 370010
 0.50 553097 553094 553091 552088 551088 550091 550093 550096
      552098 553097
 0.50 550072 550068 550063 548060 546058 545057 543057 540059
      539062 538067 540070 542073 544074 547074 549074 550072
 0.50 528999 527997 526996 525994 525993 524991 523989 521988
      520987 520989 521991 521992 523993 524994 524997 526999
      527999 528000 528999
 0.50 378712 376708 372708 367712 363715 358723 350729 346732
      344737 339747 329766 327776 324780 324785 326786 330783
      339777 342773 345778 349782 354784 358785 360780 363767
      365756 369745 373736 376724 378712
 0.50 329813 329809 329805 325805 324807 322809 321811 317812
      316815 318819 318822 320825 323823 325821 327819 328816
      329813
 0.50 329891 329873 328865 325857 326851 321847 308842 300836
      296835 291836 284839 275845 268848 263852 262856 264858
      266866 266886 268901 268907 267915 264928 262935 262945
      265949 271952 287951 290951 294950 299948 304944 307937
      309931 313925 313915 317910 324901 328896 329891
 1.00 374717 372712 367714 364718 362723 359727 354730 350733
      347737 344748 346753 350757 353760 355757 358753 360747
      362742 366739 368738 369732 373722 374717
 1.00 355752 356750 354750 354753 355753 355752
 1.00 337764 337762 336760 335760 334763 333765 334766 336766
      337764
 1.00 322892 322884 321877 319870 315864 313860 309856 301848
      297847 292849 286852 280854 276855 271858 269865 269874
      273885 276891 277898 277904 275909 271915 269921 268926
      267930 267934 269940 274945 284948 290947 296945 300943
      303938 304928 306923 309911 317903 322892
 1.50 371715 370715 368716 367719 366719 366721 366723 367724
      369724 370723 370722 371720 372718 371715 371715
 1.50 355739 356737 356735 354734 352735 351736 349738 349740
      348743 348744 348745 347747 348749 349750 350750 351749
      352748 353746 353744 354744 354741 355740 355739
 1.50 318888 317876 315870 312867 304860 300857 295856 284858
      278859 273861 271865 270869 271872 278881 283888 285894
      284902 282906 279908 275913 273918 271928 272935 275939
      282945 287946 292945 296943 299939 300932 300924 303915
      305909 308905 313903 316899 318893 318888
 2.00 315896 316890 316883 314876 312871 306866 298861 293861
      288861 277863 273866 273871 279877 285884 289893 289904
      286908 281910 278912 275917 274929 275934 277937 280943
      285945 292944 295941 297938 297935 296922 298917 301912
      304904 313900 315896
 3.00 313892 312882 310875 308871 301867 294866 288866 279867
      276870 279873 287878 289882 291887 293891 294897 293904
      291908 288911 284913 278914 278921 279933 280938 283942
      286943 290942 288934 292928 293916 302899 310898 313894
      313892
 4.00 311894 310889 309884 308875 306873 303871 295869 286869
      282870 281871 288875 291881 294889 296897 299898 302895
      306896 311894
 4.00 285929 286927 286925 286922 285920 284920 283919 281920
      281921 280923 281925 280927 280929 281930 283930 285929
      285929
 5.00 309892 307886 306882 304878 301875 297873 292874 292877
      294883 295887 297891 301893 306894 309892
 6.00 307890 305889 305888 304886 304884 303883 303882 301880
      300879 298878 296877 295878 295880 296882 296883 297885
      297887 298889 300890 301891 302891 304892 306892 307890

$$




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