Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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279
FXUS04 KWBC 291838
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 30/0000 UTC THRU MAY 31/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND

BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY SLOW MOVING THIS
PERIOD---MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST SC AS PER THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST.  THE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS CIRCULATION---WITH
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHORT TERM AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2" AND
ISOLATED TOTALS IN THE 5-8" RANGE OVER NORTHEAST SC INTO SOUTHEAST
NC.  TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE PW VALUES...2.5 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN---WILL STREAM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW
ENGLAND.  THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS WITH
RESPECT TO THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS IN THIS HIGH PW
AXIS---BUT MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THE IN HOUSE ENSEMBLE QPF
MEAN WAS FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE THE RUN TO
RUN VARIABILITY---WITH HEAVY RAINS DEPICTED FROM EASTERN
VA---ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN MD---DE---EASTERN
PA----NJ--SOUTHERN NY STATE AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SOUTHERN PLAINS

VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH
AND THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENT
PATTERN DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  WPC QPF LEANED TOWARD THE FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS
WITH THE POTENTIAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS PER THE 0000 AND 1200
UTC ECMWF...GFS...NSSL WRF AND HI RES ARW.  THESE SOLUTIONS ARE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHERE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE OFTEN MAXIMIZES.

NORTHERN PLAINS

NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE
RECENT NORTHWEST U.S/SOUTHWESTERN CANADA MEAN TROF POSITION AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWERY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHWEST.  PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE---HOWEVER---INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE HEIGHT FALLS
PUSH EASTWARD.  THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS
IN AN AREA OF WELL DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO
PORTIONS OF ND...SD AND NEBRASKA.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 31/00Z
 0.01 494611 501627 507642 511650 512654 514657 520674 523682
      524687 526691 530709 532717 535725 540742 545763 547771
      546780 548805 550814 551828 551841 550853 550862 550872
      550895 550908 551919 551932 553944 556962 556969 555981
      555994 554001 552002 538003 535004 532003 529003 526001
      523995 520987 516973 510957 508949 505943 508924 510921
      509915 506907 502902 498899 495899 493894 491888 488879
      486871 492858 497842 497832 497826 495822 491816 489814
      486813 481811 479807 478801 480794 483789 487783 484774
      483769 481767 475765 470761 468761 465763 460768 458776
      455785 454793 455801 452809 449816 443821 439825 435826
      432828 421834 414837 411838 407840 402843 399846 389858
      385862 383864 380864 375862 372859 372854 370851 371848
      372844 374841 380836 383832 388826 390824 391819 393816
      390813 384816 376823 372825 370828 364834 361838 354839
      340820 333819 327815 324810 319808 314805 314798 317791
      318785 323769 319763 315759 311756 305753 300748 298741
      300736 305732 311728 316726 325724 328722 332721 338718
      346716 379708 384705 389700 398688 405679 413667 417661
      420655 429644 433639 437632
 0.01 553130 552117 549101 549096 545092 539087 525075 522070
      521062 518053 511034 508026 505016 504009 502003 496993
      490987 484982 476976 471974 465974 457976 454977 449976
      448971 446965 443961 439957 428944 418928 414917 411914
      410912 407912 403913 400917 400929 400954 401959 400963
      398963 391972 385977 381978 378978 377975 377963 374948
      372938 368927 363919 362914 360909 357905 353903 342904
      338909 335917 332925 330930 330937 330941 335944 337950
      337954 336958 327960 316960 314960 313962 311967 305973
      298978 289983 280987 277987 271988 265993 256997 246996
      241997 239000 241005 241012 245018 253023 257027 261029
      269032 276037 284043 287045 292046 298047 303046 308045
      311043 315040 320038 324037 329037 335038 341037 346036
      351034 357034 359032 369032 375030 381024 386023 390026
      393030 396037 401042 404044 409045 417041 421033 425022
      430022 433028 435033 437037 440040 444041 448044 451049
      455052 459055 464057 462062 459068 460072 460079 457080
      456077 455073 450064 446060 440059 437060 435065 434070
      436074 441075 444078 445084 443089 437089 433091 425086
      421088 422090 425093 425098 421105 420109 418110 415110
      413108 411099 410094 408095 404097 402099 401097 400090
      404086 411082 415071 416064 414059 406058 397053 393052
      389050 383049 378050 377053 380058 385067 385069 383072
      380070 378067 376067 375070 374075 375080 379083 382088
      384090 386089 386085 384081 388079 391084 392090 390096
      386102 376116 368119 363118 359115 350108 345102 342093
      337086 335084 333086 335097 336102 337106 342114 345116
      351118 355121 359123 372138 378135 384129 387127 390125
      393126 396131 397133 395135 389144 385152 379161 377171
      380172 384170 392165 398159 402155 403151 412134 415134
      419132 423131 426127
 0.01 426127 430125 434121 437118 440118 443120 442127 445131
      447145 446153 447160 449164 454166 460168 464167 473164
      480173 488180 501194 509201 512202 513205 517204 522206
      525202 531194 535190 537185 537181 539179 541170 542164
      543159 545157 549145 553130
 0.01 384200 384195 381192 378189 374186 370184 366181 362181
      360185 362188 366191 370194 373197 377199 382200 384200
 0.01 344180 344175 345171 344169 343166 340165 336164 332163
      329163 328166 328168 330168 334168 335170 338172 340175
      341177 341180 344180
 0.01 288818 287813 284809 280806 276805 271803 266801 257798
      250799 246802 244806 247809 254816 261822 269827 274828
      280828 284825 287823 288818
 0.25 548979 549971 547961 545946 543928 542909 542893 543876
      544860 545851 545841 545831 545819 543800 541793 541783
      540775 540767 537751 535743 533739 528725 524709 520692
      515680 509668 502659 496653 488647 479642 474642 468646
      463650 458649 450649 446651 442656 435666 429677 423685
      417693 413696 408700 400709 393716 383723 372728 361731
      348734 335737 329739 326742 325747 326751 330755 338760
      340762 341766 339771 335776 333782 328791 328795 329801
      332807 337810 343811 350811 356808 362805 367802 370799
      373796 380795 386791 389787 399781 406774 413767 418764
      423763 427765 431765 435764 441757 447747 454737 463729
      469727 473729 481733 487742 491749 493754 498767 508792
      511806 514823 514858 514869 515880 517895 520910 523926
      526941 528957 528964 530972 532978 535984 538990 541992
      544990 548984 548979
 0.25 534128 534122 532117 530114 528111 526111 518109 514109
      510110 504115 501119 498123 497128 499132 503135 505139
      510141 512144 514147 516147 519143 520136 524135 531133
      534128
 0.25 497074 498069 497065 496058 494041 494035 496033 496028
      495020 493013 488000 485995 482991 477988 472986 465985
      458985 452985 444984 435979 431979 429982 429988 431996
      434002 437007 442009 447011 454012 461013 466015 470019
      473024 473034 471042 470050 470061 472066 477071 482074
      487076 493076 497074
 0.25 367005 367999 363994 362989 361980 359976 354973 350976
      344977 330977 325977 319979 314980 309982 299987 290992
      280996 277000 274004 273011 274017 277023 282025 287026
      292026 314021 321021 326024 334030 339029 344026 352020
      367006 367005
 0.25 269816 268812 267810 264809 262807 260806 257805 255806
      254808 254810 257812 259814 260815 263817 266818 269816
 0.50 542842 541825 540809 536782 533771 531754 530748 528744
      525743 522739 520733 519726 518710 515694 514688 512683
      507674 502668 497662 493658 490657 486658 484661 483673
      486685 485697 487705 489709 494718 500742 504750 510756
      516761 520771 521787 522803 523817 522831 523861 523878
      524884 525889 527894 529893 532882 538861 541851 542842
 0.50 482055 482052 483050 482047 482045 482044 480043 480044
      479047 478048 478049 478052 478054 480056 481056 482055
 0.50 477997 476993 474991 465989 457989 448989 443988 440991
      439995 443002 448007 455005 459004 463004 472005 477999
      477997
 0.50 438700 435697 431696 426697 422699 408708 402713 396720
      390725 383731 374735 366738 356740 348740 343742 340744
      337747 336750 338753 343757 350760 352763 352767 350771
      343776 338782 334789 332794 333800 334805 338807 346808
      354804 360799 364791 368789 373789 378789 382786 396775
      408764 413758 418750 423744 427743 429746 432750 436748
      437745 436742 434738 431734 431732 434727 436721 436713
      437706 438700
 0.50 346011 340004 335999 335995 339992 341989 339984 331981
      326982 324984 318990 313991 308991 302991 298992 290995
      282999 280002 279007 281012 285014 294015 306016 310015
      313013 318005 321002 324001 329001 331002 331006 334014
      336018 339019 342017 344013 346011
 1.00 504702 504699 504698 503697 502694 501692 500690 499689
      499690 499693 500695 500697 500698 501700 502702 503702
      504703 504702
 1.00 421721 420716 416716 414718 410720 403724 397728 387738
      376748 372754 372760 374764 370777 376779 380778 383777
      394768 400762 404757 410751 413746 416738 418729 421721
 1.00 355795 355790 356786 355779 350779 346781 342783 340787
      339791 337796 338802 342803 345803 349802 353799 355795
      355795
 1.50 410733 408731 405733 401738 396741 392745 388750 386756
      386760 388764 392763 395762 397760 399753 402748 404743
      407738 410733
 1.50 349789 350787 349786 347786 346785 345785 344788 343790
      343792 344794 345795 346796 348796 349793 349791 349789
      349789

$$





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