Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 050700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT SAT SEP 05 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 05/1200 UTC THRU SEP 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...NORTHERN ROCKIES...NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN (WHERE
500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) WILL PIVOT NE TURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD...WITH A LOW
CUTTING OFF AT UPPER LEVELS WHILE THE TROUGH LOSES AMPLITUDE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASED UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE RIDING UP THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE. BROAD-SCALE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE...WITH THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
ENHANCED BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN-CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A
MATURING CYCLONE AS A PORTION OF THE BROAD WARM CONVEYOR BELT
(AXIS OF ANOMALOUS PW) IS PULLED WESTWARD TOWARD THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION (DEEPENING TROWAL). THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY
WELL CORRELATED WITH THE QPF ACROSS THIS ZONE FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THOUGH A NOTABLE TREND IS WITH
A SHARP DECREASE IN QPF AFTER 12Z ACROSS CENTRAL-NORTH-CENTRAL MT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY SLOT. AS A RESULT...THE SLIGHT RISK REGION
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK WAS "PINCHED"
ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH THE LATEST QPF CONSENSUS (LEAST AMOUNT OF
SPREAD) AND SSEO 40 KM NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES SUPPORTIVE OF A
CONTINUED RISK (SLIGHT) OVER NORTHWEST MT AND ALSO NORTHEAST
MT/NORTHWEST ND.

ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST...LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN A
BROADLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ONCE AGAIN
LEAD TO AN MCS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY ENCOUNTERS A THERMODYNAMICALLY RICH ENVIRONMENT WITH
MUCAPES (AGAIN) ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG... PRE-CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT PWS AROUND 1.75 INCHES...AND S-SW LOW-LEVEL INFLOW
INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
WPC CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE THE MAXIMUM QPF ACROSS EASTERN ND INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF MN...NOT TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY NOR INTO THE MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. BASED ON THE LATEST
SSEO MEAN NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF 3 HR QPF EXCEEDING FFG
(INCREASING TO 30+ PCT BY 00Z SUN)...ALONG WITH SOME OF THE 4KM
CAM GUIDANCE QPFS (ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES)... WILL INCLUDE
A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHERN
MN...WITH THE EMPHASIS ON EASTERN ND/FAR NORTHWEST MN AND OVER
NORTHEAST MN WHERE THE FFG VALUES ARE LOWER.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

THE MONSOON CONTINUES ALONG A SWATH FROM SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ARIZONA THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO CENTRAL COLORADO.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE RUNNING A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE (1-2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS PER THE ENSEMBLES)...INCLUDING A CONNECTION TO
HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN
AS PER THE 700-500 AND 500-300 CIRA LAYER PW LOOPS. A DEEP TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO SWING EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD
FURTHER STRENGTHEN THE DRY SLOT OVER NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH...BUT
WITH JET LEVEL FORCING PASSING WELL NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY APPRECIABLE INCREASE TO
DEEP LAYER ASCENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TODAY. MODEL QPF
SIGNAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY...BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS
GENEROUS WITH THE COVERAGE OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH AREAL AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S/SW FACING SLOPES IN
SOUTHEAST AZ...WESTERN NM...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CO.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 462329 464325 467318 468314 471309 473305 476299 478295
      481291 483289 487287 491288 495288 500289 505291 509293
      511293 525257 519249 517244 516238 504223 497213 494212
      491208 481206 474209 470211 467214 468218 471221 473222
      475225 471230 468233 464234 461236 458242 455253 450264
      448268 446275 441286 439300 440304 441306 443304 448298
      451298 450303 449311 447323
 0.01 558982 556977 555974 549963 544955 534955 524954 522952
      523948 527947 535939 541928 545921 549911 552900 553893
      551886 550881 550874 548862 546849 543841 540837 537836
      532835 528837 522844 516851 510860 505868 502869 501867
      496865 492862 486860 473857 465855 455857 446858 440860
      438863 438866 435867 433861 428855 426850 425843 428843
      429845 432848 437848 441846 447844 451840 452835 450828
      447818 449806 451800 450795 448792 445790 437791 421789
      416792 414795 406802 402809 400818 395826 393837 391844
      392851 398857 402865 407874 420893 425899 431905 435908
      439909 445914 438927 428942 417960 407978 404984 404991
      405997 408000 404009 399020 396027 396041 399041 401038
      405030 409023 412020 416018 420010 423007 427006 435002
      439999 445998 450999 453001 456002 454005 449007 443013
      437021 433026 430032 429035 433040 440041 448044 453045
      456046 455050 450056 445063 443068 439074 437076 439079
      444084 426097 427100 423104 420106 414104 410095 408093
      407091 409089 413085 416083 418077 416067 416055 414052
      408051 390049 385049 382051 372050 367049 363047 357045
      355040 352038 347037 343038 338040 325053 319061 315066
      310067 303069 295069 286069 275069 270068 264066 257061
      243052 235049 233055 234059 236063 238066 243068 247072
      254079 261086 265089 271090 275089 279092 284096 286099
      289101 293099 291095 290092 295091 306093 310095 314099
      317108 320115 324115 327112 333112 332108 334106 337108
      337111 335119 337124 342127 346126 350115 355106 360096
      366093 371093 376096 378098 380095 383092 386090 399081
      402077 405076 407078 406081 404086 398093 399098
 0.01 399098 393109 389113 384116 381119 386121 397122 402121
      409122 416124 418126 421126 427120 431116 433114 434116
      437117 440120 440125 439129 436136 434143 433148 433154
      438165 437172 433175 422178 415185 412189 412193 414198
      421202 425201 432203 442205 452205 459206 464205 475202
      491194 499186 502182 507179 525175 530174 533174 534171
      537164 540157 548132 550124 551116 549098 548081 546068
      545050 544042 545030 547013 551001 558982
 0.01 393810 391797 391792 388790 385794 382800 373805 364806
      359807 356810 353813 348815 344812 343805 345801 349798
      357792 373777 377758 377746 378735 379729 377724 373721
      367723 347733 343734 340736 332734 317725 310719 300716
      293718 287720 278724 269727 263728 259730 254738 250745
      248755 246768 247781 249794 251799 251805 248803 245805
      242814 246823 251830 257838 264847 269855 271891 261890
      259895 261900 264905 266907 269908 273909 280909 282913
      282920 283925 284931 286939 290947 286955 284960 282966
      283968 286969 288968 290966 291959 295956 300956 303954
      309950 310945 312943 315943 319941 320935 319928 321924
      323926 328928 332926 332924 328919 325914 326907 324899
      319892 316890 316883 320875 322870 326866 330863 331861
      335861 347860 353859 357855 382832 384824 388818 391814
      393810
 0.01 336069 336067 335066 334067 334069 335070 336069
 0.01 325076 324074 322074 320076 321078 323078 325076
 0.01 302781 302770 300762 297754 294750 291748 286748 279749
      275755 273758 273762 271775 270783 270787 271789 282795
      291803 292805 291808 290811 292814 294815 294803 299791
      302781
 0.25 539126 540118 540107 540099 539092 534059 532049 530033
      530027 531021 536011 539007 540000 537995 534992 528990
      522993 517993 511991 508988 507982 507973 507966 509955
      510947 511939 510923 513918 515921 518927 523931 528933
      533929 537920 541910 544899 545889 544879 542873 540865
      536861 531861 527863 521867 513874 499884 493885 489882
      481877 470897 463906 456918 450927 446937 442946 438955
      427975 424981 424985 425990 425993 427993 432990 435987
      437982 438975 441973 444969 445960 447956 452956 452969
      455974 460976 464979 467986 470991 472996 473004 472012
      469024 469042 470051 471056 472062 475067 481077 484082
      484089 479100 472104 461102 459103 459107 461113 464117
      463121 457131 456143 454162 449174 447179 445184 443186
      441188 443189 448188 452188 458189 463189 473184 480178
      486175 490174 498167 505164 514162 523162 527159 530156
      533148 536141 539126
 0.25 506271 504263 501259 497255 490251 484248 480247 478248
      476251 476255 478261 479267 484272 490274 495274 501272
      506271
 0.25 377080 377079 377078 376076 374076 373077 374079 374080
      375081 377081 377080
 0.25 370759 369749 368743 364737 360736 356735 352736 347740
      339747 332756 328768 324780 325783 327781 332778 337773
      342771 352766 358765 365766 368764 369762 370759
 0.25 360823 358822 354823 352824 349825 347827 346830 345833
      346836 348840 350841 352839 353837 355834 357831 358828
      359825 360823
 0.25 348064 349061 348060 346061 344063 346064 348064 348064
 0.25 340091 340090 340089 339088 338089 338091 338093 338095
      340093 340091
 0.25 344057 343054 341052 340052 336053 334054 332053 330054
      328055 327057 328059 330060 332060 336059 338058 341058
      344057
 0.25 337102 336100 335099 334097 333095 331097 331099 332100
      334101 334102 336103 337102
 0.25 332066 332064 331064 330064 328064 326064 328064 330065
      330066 331067 332066
 0.25 310867 310860 310853 309848 307844 303835 298830 290825
      285819 274807 271804 269799 266796 262796 259799 257802
      255806 256810 268821 271824 274829 277836 279840 281847
      280855 288860 292866 295870 298872 303872 306870 310867
 0.25 302078 297077 294078 288077 283077 272076 267074 263072
      259070 255071 257076 259079 266083 270083 271085 275083
      278084 283084 286083 294080 296084 298082 302078
 0.25 289897 289895 289894 288895 289897 289898 289897
 0.50 533125 535112 534100 532089 529081 528074 528066 528058
      526049 523028 522018 521012 518009 500990 500980 500967
      500960 501956 503945 504938 505927 504916 504908 504903
      503898 497894 490891 486889 482891 479895 477902 473909
      469913 464918 459925 457929 456933 461939 460945 459954
      459957 463958 469956 471958 473962 473968 472973 471978
      472985 477989 481994 480002 477022 475031 476041 477048
      479051 484055 492064 503073 505080 504086 503090 495104
      487113 484118 478123 473126 468130 465136 467141 474146
      476150 477159 478164 479167 481169 486170 496162 506151
      511147 517146 520148 523147 528143 533125
 0.50 539898 540890 540882 538875 536872 532872 529875 524882
      518889 516894 518897 524902 525918 526923 530923 534917
      538907 539898
 0.50 485990 486987 486985 485983 485982 484979 484978 483977
      482976 482977 482979 482981 483982 483984 483987 483989
      484990 485990 485990
 0.50 472178 470176 466176 463176 461177 459177 456179 454181
      455184 457185 460185 463185 465184 468182 471180 472178
 0.50 360749 359744 355742 350744 346747 343749 341753 339757
      340764 343766 347764 350762 355759 358756 359752 360749
 0.50 306856 305850 303844 299839 293837 290835 286834 284837
      285841 287848 291852 296855 299861 301866 303865 304861
      306856
 0.50 274081 275079 274079 272078 270079 271081 272083 274082
      274081
 0.50 273816 271813 269811 267809 265808 263807 260805 259805
      257807 258809 261811 263813 265815 268816 270817 273816
 0.50 264078 264076 263075 262074 261073 260072 258073 257073
      258074 258075 259077 260078 261079 263079 264078
 1.00 534896 534893 535891 534888 534885 534884 532885 530885
      530886 529888 529889 528891 528894 529896 529899 529902
      529904 529905 531905 531904 532902 533902 534899 534898
      534896
 1.00 526116 527110 526103 524097 521095 519098 516106 514115
      510118 504119 498122 493127 489131 487132 483130 478132
      475134 473138 477138 483141 489139 495138 500136 503135
      505132 510128 514124 518122 524118 526116
 1.00 514045 514037 513032 509023 506019 503016 495014 489014
      486016 482025 481031 481037 483040 486042 493048 500049
      510049 513048 514045
 1.00 491924 491917 489914 487911 484910 479916 473920 471924
      474927 471936 469944 470948 474949 479949 482947 486942
      489934 490927 491924
 1.50 502036 503031 501029 499027 498025 495023 493022 491023
      488023 486025 484030 486033 489035 491036 494037 495038
      499039 500038 502036
 1.50 484932 484929 484928 482927 481928 479929 479930 477932
      477933 477934 477937 477938 479937 481936 482934 484932
      484932

$$





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