Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 230646
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 AM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 23/1200 UTC THRU MAY 24/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

FL PANHANDLE---NORTH FL---SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS---SOUTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC

MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST---NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC.  A WELL DEFINED IMPULSE IN THE BROAD WEST SOUTHWEST MID
TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS
THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY REGION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC---ACCENTUATING LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND THE ANOMALOUS PW AXIS.   THIS WILL SUPPORT A BROAD
SWATH OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THESE REGIONS DAY 1.  DAY
1 QPF LEANED MORE TOWARD THE HI RES ARW AND NMMB GIVEN OVERALL
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THESE MODELS MAY DEPICT THE QPF DETAILS
BETTER.  RECENT VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN A LOT OF MODEL ERROR IN QPF
DETAILS---WITH OFTEN THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE BEING THESE HI
RES MODELS.  A BROAD REGION OF AREAL AVERAGE .50-1"+ AMOUNTS
DEPICTED---WITH MAX TOTALS IN THE 2-4"+ RANGE POSSIBLE WHERE
CONVECTION TRAINS IN A WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION.  AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHERE THE TRAINING OCCURS.

MS VALLEY INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD DAY 1 IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO
THE MS VALLEY--PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS---LOWER
MS---LOWER TN VALLEYS AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  THE
PRIMARY ANOMALOUS PW AXIS WILL BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THIS FRONT
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED LEAD STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS AND THE EXPECTED
QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT THE
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN WHAT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE
TOTALS DEPICTED THROUGH THE MS VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS---WITH ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS WHERE CONVECTION
BECOME MOST ORGANIZED.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST CANADA

MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE EAST SOUTHEAST PUSH OF STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TUESDAY---INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA
AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.  THE TRACK OF
THE HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
ACROSS SOUTHERN B.C.---WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR ONLY LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE TOTALS EXTENDING INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
OLYMPIC RANGE.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 488613 497627 502633 505642 512659 515668 519678 520694
      520706 521734 520739 521746 519755 514770 509789 504805
      499824 497827 494828 489824 483819 482812 483807 485783
      486761 486750 485745 486740 485728 485722 485716 484704
      485699 484693 480683 477674 475670 473668 467665 461661
      458660 454662 446664 442670 429684 425690 423695 423699
      422708 420717 415733 397758 395768 395778 394787 393795
      390805 386812 381819 376824 371829 368832 367837 367844
      373848 378851 385854 399857 405858 410858 417855 422853
      423848 426841 429833 434828 439820 444815 446814 448810
      450806 451810 461815 467819 468821 468826 464844 462849
      460855 459860 459867 463888 463894 465900 469907 471910
      475907 482904 484904 485908 489917 490922 486929 482936
      479944 473961 467979 453986 450988 446988 438987 434985
      430985 421985 417985 414982 405982 399978 396977 396971
      398961 398950 399946 402945 404944 405942 405936 403927
      401924 398925 396933 395937 395943 391952 389956 385958
      382959 377959 371959 368961 363965 361966 359969 357973
      355980 354985 355988 355994 357998 356009 356020 354027
      347025 341020 337021 333020 324016 319017 317019 314026
      313030 310031 308032 305030 301028 299025 295018 288005
      285996 286992 288990 291987 287986 283987 281989 280992
      280998 281001 281006 280015 278017 275019 269021 259017
      254014 248008 239001 233998 230993 230940 230934 231930
      237924 242918 246911 251905 256897 260890 262880 268864
      271854 274845 277838 281829 282825 281821 277818 273818
      269810 271808 276807 292799 293796 292793 291789 290784
      292780 294775
 0.01 294775 300770 307765 314760 320753 325747 331739 342727
      352713 357705 362698 370684 381668 385661 393656 406655
      417640 420637
 0.01 542195 543185 542180 539174 536170 529161 520153 512147
      501144 501156 500165 500173 505185 506191 503197 502202
      504209 493206 484209 475210 469211 465214 466217 471221
      475222 480220 483220 486222 490225 494229 496237 499248
      499251 496250 494245 491240 487238 482241 479239 479236
      476232 473233 469235 458234 454235 449237 447241 451243
      463242 472241 475240 477242 480248 484258 491271 497280
      504289 508291 512287 515283 518276 522262 525255 526248
      527240 528234 530232 534225 536219 540207 541198 542195
 0.01 310903 310900 307899 304900 302903 298912 294921 290931
      286941 284946 282952 282955 284953 287949 291939 294929
      299918 301914 304909 310903
 0.01 264929 263924 261925 257931 254939 252942 252947 252952
      254958 255964 258967 261964 258961 257958 259955 259949
      260947 261941 262933 264929
 0.25 531208 533198 531189 529183 526179 523176 520177 515179
      514181 513187 515192 519197 523202 526208 529210 531208
 0.25 502270 502267 501267 500265 498265 498266 499269 499270
      501272 502270
 0.25 434664 432661 428660 421664 407671 398668 396667 391668
      384676 379682 375690 372698 368707 362713 340738 329751
      318763 312770 308776 300792 298801 294809 288824 282839
      278848 275859 275863 275869 277871 278876 278887 275896
      272905 273912 275916 274927 274935 275941 278941 282934
      289918 294901 301894 309890 312889 316890 318895 317901
      318909 320913 326908 332907 334903 335897 338894 349884
      362874 362870 360869 357866 355859 354852 355846 356840
      359835 366820 374806 378799 382790 386784 388774 388767
      389760 392752 395748 398745 400741 400736 406718 414700
      422684 429674 434664
 0.25 444884 443873 441860 436859 431861 424866 419872 411876
      404882 399887 393894 387901 382907 378911 378915 385913
      389916 394916 398914 401911 406905 412898 419893 423891
      428893 434899 441899 443894 444887 444884
 0.25 348921 350917 348913 343911 336912 330915 325924 323930
      319937 307954 304954 305950 306944 303939 299941 294951
      287960 270975 270977 273977 279979 284977 290976 297976
      302973 306969 310966 315962 320960 324956 326949 341934
      342929 345926 348921
 0.25 333856 333854 332854 331855 329857 328859 327861 327863
      328865 330863 331861 331860 332859 333857 333856
 0.25 269007 269003 268999 266994 262989 259985 253983 248984
      242987 241994 244998 249001 255004 260006 265008 269007
 0.50 411697 410688 407681 402678 399680 397683 395689 394694
      393701 394709 397715 402712 405708 408702 411697
 0.50 423881 423878 419877 413880 409883 405887 401892 398897
      396904 399904 401902 405899 410894 413891 418886 421883
      423881
 0.50 393738 393734 392729 386729 382732 379738 376744 373746
      369746 360741 359739 360736 363731 366727 372723 376719
      377716 376714 372714 369716 365719 357726 349734 340742
      332751 326760 318768 311777 311781 312785 313788 312790
      303797 297806 292818 288829 285840 283846 283853 286857
      290861 291865 291870 291879 294883 299884 305884 310881
      318873 322860 326849 332839 333837 337836 340841 341843
      345844 350842 361820 366809 372799 378788 381776 384762
      385755 388749 391743 393738
 0.50 354775 354773 353772 351772 350773 349773 348775 348776
      348777 350777 352776 353775 354775
 0.50 351802 350798 347798 341800 338803 336806 335812 336817
      338820 341818 344814 346811 348807 351802 351802
 0.50 339930 339928 340926 340923 340921 340919 340917 339915
      338915 337914 336915 335916 334917 333919 333921 333924
      333926 333928 334929 335930 337930 339930 339930
 0.50 300964 299964 297963 296964 295964 294965 292966 291966
      292967 293968 294969 294968 296968 297966 299965 300964
 1.00 380752 380748 378748 376750 374752 373754 371756 370759
      369764 371767 372765 374763 376760 378757 379755 380752
 1.00 372790 372786 370782 368781 365782 363785 362787 360789
      359790 357792 358794 361796 363797 366796 368795 371792
      372790
 1.00 370770 369768 369767 369768 367769 366771 364773 366775
      368774 369773 369772 370770
 1.00 352753 352750 350749 345751 339755 333759 328764 323769
      320776 322779 326779 333778 339773 343768 347762 350756
      352753
 1.00 337791 338787 336785 333784 329785 326789 316802 310809
      307810 305804 301806 298809 295817 291826 288835 286843
      289847 293845 297843 299838 301835 303834 306835 311841
      316842 319840 325834 328824 331816 331808 333798 337791
 1.50 327799 327794 325796 321802 318808 314815 310820 309829
      313834 316835 320834 322831 323827 325819 324812 324806
      327799 327799
 1.50 300827 301823 300819 299819 296822 295824 294826 293829
      291832 290835 289837 290841 292841 294840 295838 297835
      298832 299830 300827

$$





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